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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

No real strong plays for pucks, few leans

Isles/Devils O6.5 (-110)
Flyers (-105)
Stars/Wings U5.5 (-115)
Veg/Nash U6 (-110)
Vegas (-110)

strongest lean probably the under in the Preds/Knights game. Knights in the fade the team back off the bye spot, but I'm
apprehensive to bet against the Preds at home and I do think the Knights will be a solid fade team from here going home.
I've got a projection of 6.7 goals in the Isles/Devils game, it probably flies over, just hate playing above 6. Flyers are hot,
not a lot of value on that # however.

 
swirvenirvin said:
I think we talked about this before.. Is there any correlation with these guys?

HUNT OROY tied with Kamara.. split

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/chiefs-rb-kareem-hunt-named-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-by-writers/102lg9pb23mz412psv89z2fw25
Click to expand...
I posted the results before, but there is a big correlation.  Gonna be a close one, I can't fault voters either way.  No QB bias this year, will voters go with the traditional RB or the multi-purpose guy.  Would have been an easy decision if Chiefs didn't forget about their run game for 1/2 the season.

 
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TheGooRoo said:
I posted the results before, but there is a big correlation.  Gonna be a close one, I can't fault voters either way.  No QB bias this year, will voters go with the traditional RB or the multi-purpose guy.  Would have been an easy decision if Chiefs didn't forget up their run game for 1/2 the season.
Click to expand...
That 5dimes odds that they put up on kamara were ridiculous at -1000 for him.  I added more "anyone else" but leading the league in rushing I think is pretty huge.  Both teams made the playoffs

Kamara just wouldn't stop scoring TD's and avg unearthly numbers.  Troy Aikman is a doosh too

 
swirvenirvin said:
That 5dimes odds that they put up on kamara were ridiculous at -1000 for him.  I added more "anyone else" but leading the league in rushing I think is pretty huge.  Both teams made the playoffs

Kamara just wouldn't stop scoring TD's and avg unearthly numbers.  Troy Aikman is a doosh too
Click to expand...
Obviously you didn't see the sweet watch he was wearing

 
Suns 11-2-1 O/U L14 away v Northwest (avg total 217.5). Also this season Suns 9-3 O/U catching 11 or more on the spread (7-1 O/U 111±5 ppg when the opposing team allows more than 100 ppg on the season).

 
Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.

With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a huge upset off the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are heading into New England getting a Rodney Dangerfield-esque level of respect. Teams in this situation have done well, though, which is why we'll be looking to them for a second straight week.

Big playoff underdogs

TrendATS RecordUnits WonROI

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts33-23-1 (58.9%)+7.87+13.8%

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts after WC27-13-1 (67.5%)+12.20+29.8%

Playoff teams getting <40% of bets30-25-2 (54.5%)+3.45+6.1%

"Underperforming" teams38-21-3 (64.4%)+15.73+25.4%

There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.

It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.

When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.

Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.

At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.

With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a huge upset off the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are heading into New England getting a Rodney Dangerfield-esque level of respect. Teams in this situation have done well, though, which is why we'll be looking to them for a second straight week.

Big playoff underdogs

TrendATS RecordUnits WonROI

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts33-23-1 (58.9%)+7.87+13.8%

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts after WC27-13-1 (67.5%)+12.20+29.8%

Playoff teams getting <40% of bets30-25-2 (54.5%)+3.45+6.1%

"Underperforming" teams38-21-3 (64.4%)+15.73+25.4%

There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.

It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.

When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.

Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.

At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

Think I'm leaning Jags +points, Eagles +points for 1U and Jags/Eagles ML parlay for 0.25U +1000

 
swirvenirvin said:
Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.

With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a huge upset off the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are heading into New England getting a Rodney Dangerfield-esque level of respect. Teams in this situation have done well, though, which is why we'll be looking to them for a second straight week.

Big playoff underdogs

TrendATS RecordUnits WonROI

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts33-23-1 (58.9%)+7.87+13.8%

Playoff 'dogs of 7+ pts after WC27-13-1 (67.5%)+12.20+29.8%

Playoff teams getting <40% of bets30-25-2 (54.5%)+3.45+6.1%

"Underperforming" teams38-21-3 (64.4%)+15.73+25.4%

There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.

It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.

When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.

Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.

At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.
Click to expand...
Stopped reading at the bolded

 
Mybookie sending emails pimping docs sports service.....always a good sign when the sports book is pimping a service, I'm definitely signing up.

 
Career Builder

Dufner O Z. Johnson (-110)
Dufner O Steele (-110)
 

First Round
Dufner O J. Walker (-160)

Futures:
Dufner +2100 (.4 units)
Cauley +3300 (.2 units)
Kirk +4000 (.2 units)
Lingmerth +5600 (.2 units)
Stuard +6500 (.2 units)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think Pats cover easily & Jags don't score more than 13 points with the majority their scoring coming in 4Q garbage time.

 
Pucks:

Blues (-140) 2 units
Avs (-105)
 

Leans:

Bruins (-125)
Bruins PL (+225)
Caps/Devils O5.5 (-115)
Stars/Jackets U5.5 (-115)
Knights/Bolts U6 (-120)
Yotes/Preds U5.5 (-135)
Pens (EV)

 
ChainsawU said:
Opposing team scored first six times versus Pats since 2016. Pats went scoreless 1Q in five of them.
Click to expand...
Since Dec 13, 2015, Pats have gone 0-14 O/U when they scored less than 7 in the 1Q last week. The two SU losses were both in Miami versus the Dolphins (+10 and +11). In the other 12 games the Pats allowed 12±6 points per game.

In the home games they went 5-0 SU and ATS, allowing 8±4 points per game and outscored the opponent 15±3 to 0±0 in the 2Q. The home games averaged 21±5 1H and 14±4 2H. The opponents did the majority of their scoring in 4Q garbage time.

:tinfoilhat:

This can easily be written off as arbitrary due to the small sample size and no apparent link between what happened "last week" versus what happens "this week" in those situations. It's crazy and I can't really argue about it not being arbitrary or coincidental. It just really jumped off the page at me:

  • The fact that the only two SU losses were both in Miami
  • The 2Q scoring was virtually identical in every home game
  • It's a phenomenon I would have totally missed if not for cashing tickets live-betting the 1Q thing already
  • And then just the overall uniformity of it all and how it ties in with 14 consecutive hits on the under
 
I'm thinking of betting first score Pats TD, team who scores first wins game, JAX u½ 1H, JAX u13, the full-game under and 2H unders. There are still three days until kickoff, luckily, so I'm going to let my subconscious marinate, but I'm all the way turnt up on this right now.

 
The booty woman had a scrape on her ear and a bruise behind her ear. Turns out she got into a fight with another woman. Another woman tried to steal her Rolex so she beat her up. A black girl too. She beat up a black girl. She snuck up on her. I was like, "Did you sneak up on her?" She looked at me sheepishly - like an embarrassed little sheep - and was like, "Yeah. I saw her from across the street and snuck up on her." That is what you need right there man - a little gangsta chick you can do all your sexual intimacies with - one that you already know can be sneaky if she wants to.

 
Since 2001 the L32 teams to win conference championships have gone 27-5 ATS and 19-12-1 O/U:
Favorite: 18-5 ATS with 15-7-1 O/U
Dog: 9-0 ATS with 4-5 O/U

The faves won scoring an average of 32±8 points per game.

 
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