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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

I'm feeling the Wildcats. I don't have KP's number, but according to Sagarin they could've given K-State more points if they wanted to. But it doesn't look like they wanted to. Sagarin has Tech ranked 11th on his sheet versus K-State ranked 46th overall. And then the media rankings rank Tech 7th and K-State.. not. That seems like a big disparity, and the ranked versus unranked makes it real easy for Joey to walk in and bet the favorite.

Nine of K-State's L15 B12 wins (since last season) came in games with totals less than 138, but that's about as far as I got into the database. It feels like no matter what number you get it's going to be important, so I'm taking the +1 and saving another unit or two for a +3 or +5 during the game. Not betting the ML. Points all the way. It's only one point but I saw a couple games that ended on that one-point margin.

 
Since last season St Mary's is 31-3 versus the West Coast Conference. The three losses were at Gonzaga, at home versus Gonzaga, and in the WCC final in Las Vegas versus Gonzaga.

 
ChainsawU said:
If you have Bet Labs, what are you getting on the O/U L6 seasons on ranked P12 teams in games versus USC?
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You're definitely on to something here.  I can't figure out where the "ranked team" filter is (I must be going crazy), but since 2005 when both USC and it's opponent both have a winning % over 60%, the over is 22-13-2 (62.9%) for a 22.9% ROI.  Similar results the last 6 seasons as well.

 
swirvenirvin said:
NBC ruins the Olympics again

WTF arent they showing anything on Sunday morning.  Its all taped so why not show it.  ####### dumb
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NBC SN had some stuff on this morning, however it was a repeat of what I saw yesterday. Lame.

I recall summers of 88/92 in portugal. Poor country had 2 channels. Yet they basically had non stop coverage of something during the Olympics. Live or tape delay. 

I got what seems like 6 NBC channels and get I can't get 1 channel to just have constant coverage. Show me some more stories on how so and so achieved his dreams since he was 12. I don't care!

 
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Today's Clash race is more of a crapshoot than even typical races are, but here are my plays so far, all played at -115.

Stenhouse over Johnson
Blaney over Kurt Busch
Logano over Elliott

 
regularguy said:
It's an all-star type race with just 17 drivers and only 75 laps in total.  High risk of guys crashing as they'll be going all out as it's winner takes all.
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I'm thinking of it more like an exhibition race.  I suppose there is a cash prize, but I'm more concerned with guys not going all out.  How did you cap it, practice results?

 
TheGooRoo said:
I'm thinking of it more like an exhibition race.  I suppose there is a cash prize, but I'm more concerned with guys not going all out.  How did you cap it, practice results?
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I only paid attention to the practice results to notice that Fords seem to be carrying over their plate track advantage of recent years but wasn't real concerned with how anybody in particular ran.  How the new Chevys perform is an unknown to everybody.  Both Johnson & Kurt Busch have a history of not finishing this race.  I'm generally going to be down on Jimmie again this year until shown otherwise.  I think Blaney takes a step forward in his move to Penske.  Logano won this race last year and has finished in the top 6 in this race the last 5 years.   Logano over Elliott is another Ford over Chevy play too. 

 
regularguy said:
I only paid attention to the practice results to notice that Fords seem to be carrying over their plate track advantage of recent years but wasn't real concerned with how anybody in particular ran.  How the new Chevys perform is an unknown to everybody.  Both Johnson & Kurt Busch have a history of not finishing this race.  I'm generally going to be down on Jimmie again this year until shown otherwise.  I think Blaney takes a step forward in his move to Penske.  Logano won this race last year and has finished in the top 6 in this race the last 5 years.   Logano over Elliott is another Ford over Chevy play too. 
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I'm partial to the ZL1's  :D .   Practice looked good for Fords, qualifying looked not so good for Fords.  Looking forward to this!

 
Tiger Fan said:
You're definitely on to something here.  I can't figure out where the "ranked team" filter is (I must be going crazy), but since 2005 when both USC and it's opponent both have a winning % over 60%, the over is 22-13-2 (62.9%) for a 22.9% ROI.  Similar results the last 6 seasons as well.
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Nice, what about ACC O/U on Sunday and Monday last couple seasons..

conference games

 
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This is gonna sound arbitrary because the under in that Ga Tech game looks pretty solid but ACC looks like they go over the total a lot on Sunday/Monday. <_< Maybe fun for tomorrow though. :excited:

 
Since 2005-06 season, ACC overs on Sunday/Monday are 131-147-5 (47.1%) for ROI of -8.9%

This season (8-4-1) for ROI of 24.1

2016-17 (14-7-1) for ROI of 26.3%

2015-16 (9-17) for ROI of -33.9%

2014-15 (9-16) for ROI of -30.7%

Unless there was something that changed in the ACC after the 15/16 season, looks like an avoid :shrug:

 
Tonight's play to fade:

Wazzu 0-7 ats as a road dog this year.  Ducks -16.

Also 6-1 to the over in the same sitch.  Over 147.

 
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TheGooRoo said:
I'm partial to the ZL1's  :D .   Practice looked good for Fords, qualifying looked not so good for Fords.  Looking forward to this!
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Well, Fords dominated and Johnson wrecked, but I still lost money.  :loco:    Blaney's move for the win put him on an island and slipped him behind Kurt Busch, and Stenhouse never got a caution so he could overcome the yellow line penalty.  All those single file laps down the stretch have me a bit concerned that the 500 is going to be pretty boring.  I'd enjoyed the plate setup of the last few years and hope they haven't screwed it up too much. 

 
The Bucs rejoined the Southern Conference in July 2014 after competing in the Atlantic Sun since 2003. Since then opposing teams 8-0 O/U 70±5 ppg against East Tennessee State on totals 136 or less. sdql

 
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The Bucs rejoined the Southern Conference in July 2014 after competing in the Atlantic Sun since 2003. Since then opposing teams 11-0 O/U 71±5 ppg against East Tennessee State on totals 136 or less. sdql

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Speaking of boxing, Deontay Wilder is about a -220 favorite against Luis Ortiz (see av) on March 3rd, and I'm 75% convinced that Ortiz is going to be taking a dive, for the same economic reasons as stated in the above post: he's tentatively slated for a Joshua fight in late 2018 (which would be for all belts, assuming Joshua beats Parker), and it would be for monster money.

Wilder's had two dudes take dives for him in the last couple years. The whole thing is either rotten, or Wilder's playing career Russian roulette. In a straight fight, Ortiz would bounce him, I think.
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Wilder/Ortiz u 9.5. 

 
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