Seth Davis picks for tomorrow. Writes for the Athletic, has been above .500 just slightly for the season, but solid analysis on his picks:
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, so your most wonderful prognosticator is here to help you navigate the churning waters ahead. I finished the regular season 10 games over .500, and I intend to ride that momentum as I pick every game in the NCAA Tournament. As always, these picks should be used for entertainment purposes only. Any similarities between these projections and the actual course of events are strictly coincidental.
Oklahoma vs. Rhode Island (-1 ½), 12:15 p.m., CBS. I might be the last guy who is still in Trae Young’s corner – I voted him my national player of the year – but this is the worst kind of matchup for the Sooners. URI doesn’t have much size inside, but it has a deep rotation of big, strong guards who love to defend. Young’s proclivity for turnovers will be a problem against a team with this kind of speed, and on the other end of the floor the Rams’ dynamic senior guard tandem of E.C. Matthews and Jared Terrell will give Oklahoma, which ranks 83rd nationally in defensive efficiency, all it can handle. The pick: Rhode Island
Wright State vs. Tennessee (-13 ½), 12:40 p.m., truTV. I like the Vols, but this has the makings of a defensive, slow-tempo game, which makes it a tough cover. The Raiders also have decent size up front in 6-foot-9, 245-pound forward Loudon Love, who was named the Horizon League’s freshman of the year. It will be fun watching 6-4 junior Mark Hughes, the Horizon's defensive player of the year, attack a Vols offense that ranked No. 6 nationally in assists to field goals made. The pick: Wright State
UNC Greensboro vs. Gonzaga (-12), 1:30 p.m., TNT. Is someone ever going to hose down Killian Tillie? Gonzaga’s 6-11 sophomore forward has made 22 of his last 26 attempts from 3-point range. The Spartans, who rank No. 318 nationally in tempo, will try to slow this game to a crawl, but the Zags are comfortable playing in the halfcourt (125th in tempo). UNCG is also terrible at getting to the line (333rd in free throw rate), which will make Gonzaga’s frontcourt dominance that much more pronounced. The pick: Gonzaga
Penn vs. Kansas (-15 ½), 2 p.m., TBS. Maybe I should just come out and pick Penn to win outright. Will that make me a legend? As it stands, I love the Quakers’ chances to keep things close. They are ranked ahead of one No. 14 seed and three No. 15 seeds on KenPom. KU did a better job in the second half of the season at getting to the line, but the Jayhawks still depend on being efficient from 3-point range, and the Quakers rank second in the country in 3-point defense. Finally, the Jayhawks will either be completely without Udoka Azubuike, or he will play and be less than 100 percent healthy (and maybe a little out of shape). The pick: Penn
Iona vs. Duke (-20 ½), 2:45 p.m., CBS. There are two ways to beat (or at least limit) Duke: slow the tempo, and get to the offensive glass against that zone. Unfortunately, the Gaels do neither well. Tim Cluess loves to push the ball (they are No. 56 in the country in tempo), and they rank 303rd in offensive rebound percentage. Iona also doesn’t play anyone taller than 6-8, so it’s hard to see this team containing Duke’s frontcourt trio of 6-11 Marvin Bagley III, 6-10 Wendell Carter Jr. and 6-11 Marques Bolden. The pick: Duke
South Dakota State vs. Ohio State (-8 ½), 4 p.m., TNT. Normally in these first-round games, the power-conference team has more NCAA Tournament experience, but in this case it’s the 12th-seeded Jackrabbits who are playing in their third straight tourney. They also have the Dauminator, Mike Daum, the 6-9 junior forward who ranks sixth in the country in scoring at 23.8 ppg. South Dakota State leads the country in turnover percentage, so the Buckeyes can’t count on a lot of free possessions. I picked South Dakota State to win this game because a 12 almost always beats a 5 in the tourney, but at the very least, Ohio State is going to be in for a fight, The pick: South Dakota State
N.C. State vs. Seton Hall (-2), 4:30 p.m., TBS. Seton Hall has the leading rebounder in the history of the Big East in Angel Delgado, but the rest of its defense has been mediocre. The Pirates ranked eighth in the Big East in defensive efficiency and last in steals percentage. They were also last in free throw percentage, which will be decisive if this game is close down the stretch. N.C. State is a dynamic offensive team that loves to press and run (the Wolfpack’s coach, Kevin Keatts, is a Rick Pitino disciple), and it has a tough matchup in skilled 7-0 sophomore Omer Yurtseven. The pick: N.C. State
Radford vs. Villanova (-23 1/2), 6:50 p.m., TNT. Two things are generally true for first-round games. The team that played in the First Four comes in sharp and ready to go, partly from muscle memory, partly from getting those first-night jitters out of the way. Also, it’s easier to slow a team down that wants to run than speed up a team that wants to play slow. Both of those things favor Radford’s chances to stay within this point spread. The Wildcats will be plenty comfortable playing a halfcourt game (they are No. 168 in the country in tempo, right in the middle of the national rankings) and as the most efficient offense in the country, they should be plenty effective playing Radford’s style. I just don’t think there will be enough possessions for them to cover. The pick: Radford
Davidson vs. Kentucky (-6), 7:10 p.m., CBS. If you’re a Kentucky fan this one should scare the bejesus out of you. Davidson's Wildcats are coming in red hot, having won 11 of its last 13 games. They are ranked No. 18 in the country in offensive efficiency, but they are 335th in tempo. They run an intricate scissor-cut offense, they take care of the ball (seventh in turnover percentage) and they feature an elite scorer in 6-8 senior Peyton Aldridge. And it’s no coincidence that Davidson made its second-half run after coach Bob McKillop switched to a 2-3 zone. The pick: Davidson
San Diego State vs. Houston (-3 ½), 7:20 p.m., TBS. Houston is a very dangerous team. Not only do the Cougars have one of the country’s top scorers in 6-1 senior Rob Gray, who ranked second in the AAC at 18.1 ppg, but they also are defending with a toughness and efficiency that is redolent of some of Kelvin Sampson’s old teams at Oklahoma. They rank 18th in the country in defensive efficiency and ninth in effective field goal percentage. I expect Sampson to have a great game plan to neutralize Aztecs senior guard Trey Kell, whose return to health spurred SDSU to its season-ending nine-game win streak. The pick: Houston
Stephen F. Austin vs. Texas Tech (-11 ½), 7:27 p.m., truTV. First of all, I love that this game is being played in Dallas. That should make for great fun. The herky-jerky nature of Stephen F. Austin’s system adds to the entertainment value. The Lumberjacks rank second in the nation in steals percentage, but they are 311th in offensive turnover percentage. They also foul at a higher rate than any other team in the country. Given that the Red Raiders are a great defensive team that is chock-full of athletes and has an outstanding point guard in Keenan Evans (presuming he’s fully recovered from his toe injury), this feels like a perfect matchup. The pick: Texas Tech
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (-2), 9:20 p.m., TNT. For a team that is so young, Alabama has played some really good defense. The Tide led the SEC in defensive efficiency and blocks percentage. That, plus the otherworldly talents of freshman point guard Collin Sexton, should give them an edge over a Hokies squad that loves to get out and score but is mediocre defensively and non-existent on the offensive glass. Virginia Tech likes to play some pack-line defense, so it’s critical to Alabama that hit-or-miss freshman marksman John Petty is converting his shots. The pick: Alabama
Buffalo vs. Arizona (-9), 9:40 p.m., CBS. Once again, we have a midmajor with lots of tourney experience – this is the fourth trip in five years (and second straight) for Buffalo. The Bulls strike me as a team that can get to the glass against bigger opponents, but containing Deandre Ayton and Dusan Ristic is too tall a task. Plus, the way to hang with a team like Arizona is to slow the pace, and Buffalo likes to run (15th nationally in tempo) and gun (25 games scoring 80 or more points). That’s not how you get Capone in this one. The pick: Arizona
Montana vs. Michigan (-12), 9:50 p.m., TBS. Montana plays man-to-man defense almost exclusively. It performed well this season (63rdnationally in defensive efficiency), but John Beilein’s offense carves up man-to-man defenses, especially when the opponent is not used to guarding all those intricate sets. Plus, the Grizzlies do not utilize the 3-point line, and Michigan’s interior defense has been solid all season. This is a big spread to cover because I think it will be a relatively slow tempo, but over 40 minutes I think the Wolverines should control the game just well enough to get the job done. The pick: Michigan
St. Bonaventure vs. Florida (-6 ½), 9:57 p.m., truTV. I thought UCLA would squeak by the Bonnies on Tuesday night, but I also think St. Bonaventure presents a tougher matchup for Florida. Neither team has much in the way of inside size, but UCLA’s bigs would have had a hard time chasing Florida’s guards around the court. Both these teams have had up-and-down seasons, but the reason I like the underdog here is because its stellar guards, Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, were awful against UCLA, shooting a combined 6 for 28 from the floor. Those guys are way too good to have a second bad game in a row, especially now that they have that first NCAA Tournament game under their belts. Chris Chiozza has been Florida’s best player, but the biggest worry St. Bonaventure has is containing Jalen Hudson, who is first team All-X Factor. Hudson has gone cold for stretches, but he comes in hot, averaging 22.7 points over his last three games. The pick: St. Bonaventure
Last time: 5-5
Season total: 116-106-8
