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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

ATL F5 TT O2.5  - 120 - Vargas has been bad outside of 1 start. Atlanta has scored the most runs in the NL. 

Min/KC U 5 - 115 - I like both starters even though Keller is unlikely to go more than 3 innings. 

 
gussy said:
Only one time in the 9 games that Moore has started have the Rangers given up less than 5 runs. I looked at it both ways, but I also
know Moore hasn't pitched since the 18th and I heard on mlb radio this morning that they had him working on some different things,
trying to hide the ball and be a bit more deceptive. I wanted the total game number on he off chance that Moore has figured something
out. If that's the case I can still hope the Rangers pen gives up runs.
Click to expand...
I did not know that about working on different things. I am like you and figure it is an off chance he has figured something out. Maybe I'll take 1/2 a unit F5 ( already played) and another F5 on the game... Thanks for sharing. 

 
In on Braves everything. In addition to the Vargas factor (who is also starting on 3 days rest for the first time in his career), Braves have gone 14-3 SU with 7±4 rpg in the last game of the series this season (both of which rank 1st MLB) and own an .843 OPS v LHP (also rank 1st MLB).

 
Angry Beavers said:
Min/KC U 5 - 115 - I like both starters even though Keller is unlikely to go more than 3 innings. 
Click to expand...
Something I've noticed is sometimes looking at performance the past couple of games is more important than pitching matchups.

Pitching is watered down nowadays as I'm sure you've noticed. I'd look at a teams past 2-3 games and see if they've under / over performed.

Twins and Royals went 14 innings in a 1-2 game last night. Both teams were due for some hits and runs.

 
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F5 - Athletics ML, -150

Classic fade of pitcher making his first start off the disabled list (Nathan Eovaldi hasn't pitched in two years).

Parlay

F5 - Athletics ML, -150
F5 - MIA / SD U4, -130
F5 - Dodgers ML, -210

+342

 
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Question for anyone playing in Vegas or where betting is currently legal OUS. I know locals and off-shores limit or cut when you win consistently on props without side/total plays. What's the read on legitimate books like William Hill, etc. limiting players who beat them on props? Feel like just getting virgin accounts this football season alone is a big deal in itself for legalization. 

 
mquinnjr said:
Question for anyone playing in Vegas or where betting is currently legal OUS. I know locals and off-shores limit or cut when you win consistently on props without side/total plays. What's the read on legitimate books like William Hill, etc. limiting players who beat them on props? Feel like just getting virgin accounts this football season alone is a big deal in itself for legalization. 
Click to expand...
First off, the books in Vegas don't have a lot of prop options, on a normal NFL weekend, you'll find a limited card for SNF and MNF and if you're lucky TNF.  And I mean a limited card.  They typically have $1000 limits, but they make you register for a card to bet the max in my experience so they can track you better.  According to Rufus Peabody (Bet the Process Podcast), he's been cut from William Hill for winning (not just props).

Now, all that might change as the potential pool of bettors will be expanding and the growing success of Super Bowl Props....but the above is my experience.

 
Tiger Fan said:
First off, the books in Vegas don't have a lot of prop options, on a normal NFL weekend, you'll find a limited card for SNF and MNF and if you're lucky TNF.  And I mean a limited card.  They typically have $1000 limits, but they make you register for a card to bet the max in my experience so they can track you better.  According to Rufus Peabody (Bet the Process Podcast), he's been cut from William Hill for winning (not just props).

Now, all that might change as the potential pool of bettors will be expanding and the growing success of Super Bowl Props....but the above is my experience.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think Ref had a pretty good write up about this too.  But yeah I think the consensus is either they tell you to GTFO or require registration for any significant action

ill be interested to see what FanDuel/DK do in this regard, could definitely see them offering an o/u on fantasy points or something like that 

 
IMAX 3D said:
Yeah I think Ref had a pretty good write up about this too.  But yeah I think the consensus is either they tell you to GTFO or require registration for any significant action

ill be interested to see what FanDuel/DK do in this regard, could definitely see them offering an o/u on fantasy points or something like that 
Click to expand...
I have a feeling that there will be a lot of money to be made in props (even moreso than currently) over the long term.  

 
mquinnjr said:
Question for anyone playing in Vegas or where betting is currently legal OUS. I know locals and off-shores limit or cut when you win consistently on props without side/total plays. What's the read on legitimate books like William Hill, etc. limiting players who beat them on props? Feel like just getting virgin accounts this football season alone is a big deal in itself for legalization. 
Click to expand...


Tiger Fan said:
First off, the books in Vegas don't have a lot of prop options, on a normal NFL weekend, you'll find a limited card for SNF and MNF and if you're lucky TNF.  And I mean a limited card.  They typically have $1000 limits, but they make you register for a card to bet the max in my experience so they can track you better.  According to Rufus Peabody (Bet the Process Podcast), he's been cut from William Hill for winning (not just props).

Now, all that might change as the potential pool of bettors will be expanding and the growing success of Super Bowl Props....but the above is my experience.
Click to expand...
Bill Krackomberger is pretty loud about William Hill refusing to take bets from consistent winners (I'm sure folks who place much larger bets than me though).  Gill Alexander had a great rant on VSiN about how tough it was to get his NFL draft props paid out by William Hill as well.  I think that was outlined in this thread a few pages back. 

 
Tiger Fan said:
First off, the books in Vegas don't have a lot of prop options, on a normal NFL weekend, you'll find a limited card for SNF and MNF and if you're lucky TNF.  And I mean a limited card.  They typically have $1000 limits, but they make you register for a card to bet the max in my experience so they can track you better.  According to Rufus Peabody (Bet the Process Podcast), he's been cut from William Hill for winning (not just props).

Now, all that might change as the potential pool of bettors will be expanding and the growing success of Super Bowl Props....but the above is my experience.
Click to expand...
Very irritating considering some of the hot action on props in this thread over the years!!!

 
This is the ####### dumbest thing ever but Logan Paul +170 is worth a bet. It's under YouTube on BetOnline.

Apparently YouTube stars box each other now, I'm solely picking this dork because he's got about 20 lbs. on "KSI."

 
facook said:
Bill Krackomberger is pretty loud about William Hill refusing to take bets from consistent winners (I'm sure folks who place much larger bets than me though).  Gill Alexander had a great rant on VSiN about how tough it was to get his NFL draft props paid out by William Hill as well.  I think that was outlined in this thread a few pages back. 
Click to expand...
Cannot wait for all of the AC casinos to outsource to them. :kicksrock:  thanks for the info, though.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Man Chad Millman sucks.
Click to expand...
What prompted this? 

His podcast with Scooch during NFL season is decent, and his weekly pick on it has a good track record.  I've been subscribing to the Action network for a few months off swirves rec.  Matt Zylbert posts a daily MLB total and is at almost 70% on the season. I'll usually play the MLB "sharp" bets to give a couple of books non-prop action. They're mostly just highlighting steam, rlm. etc. that I dont have time to track. I ignore most of the site. 

 
The Dodgers have a bullpen game, and they're starting with Scott Alexander, who throws a sinker almost exclusively. Coors is not the place to do this, ask Mike Hampton or, kids, ask your parents to tell you about Mike Hampton.

Problem here is that LA figures to be bloodying up Anderson pretty well from the jump, so I don't think there's necessarily F5 value.

LA/COL score in 1st inning -175

LA/COL over 3 RHE -140

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The Dodgers have a bullpen game, and they're starting with Scott Alexander, who throws a sinker almost exclusively. Coors is not the place to do this, ask Mike Hampton or, kids, ask your parents to tell you about Mike Hampton.

Problem here is that LA figures to be bloodying up Anderson pretty well from the jump, so I don't think there's necessarily F5 value.

LA/COL score in 1st inning -175

LA/COL over 3 RHE -140
Click to expand...
This seems like a bad line.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The Dodgers have a bullpen game, and they're starting with Scott Alexander, who throws a sinker almost exclusively. Coors is not the place to do this, ask Mike Hampton or, kids, ask your parents to tell you about Mike Hampton.

Problem here is that LA figures to be bloodying up Anderson pretty well from the jump, so I don't think there's necessarily F5 value.

LA/COL score in 1st inning -175

LA/COL over 3 RHE -140
Click to expand...
:moneybag:

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The Dodgers have a bullpen game, and they're starting with Scott Alexander, who throws a sinker almost exclusively. Coors is not the place to do this, ask Mike Hampton or, kids, ask your parents to tell you about Mike Hampton.

Problem here is that LA figures to be bloodying up Anderson pretty well from the jump, so I don't think there's necessarily F5 value.

LA/COL score in 1st inning -175

LA/COL over 3 RHE -140
Click to expand...
What the eff was this line dude?!  over 3 1st inning?  over 30-something for the game?  Gaaaaawwwwwdddddd-dddammit.

 
regularguy said:
What prompted this? 

His podcast with Scooch during NFL season is decent, and his weekly pick on it has a good track record.  I've been subscribing to the Action network for a few months off swirves rec.  Matt Zylbert posts a daily MLB total and is at almost 70% on the season. I'll usually play the MLB "sharp" bets to give a couple of books non-prop action. They're mostly just highlighting steam, rlm. etc. that I dont have time to track. I ignore most of the site. 
Click to expand...
giving me tons of action on mybookie and not losing my ###, better than anyone else around for small fee.

nba props are probably winning money if bet them everyday too

 
just got home. booty call in an hour. booty call from my lying, manipulative, dominating, high, childish woman that I call my girlfriend

 
real talk I'm being seriously lied to and my attempts at thwarting those lies tonight only resulted in my further emasculation

 
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