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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

Stuart Ullman said:
That line with Lester pitching was an absolute steeeeal.
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Remember we were talking about xFIP to predict the future. Lester has a clean ERA but his FIP and xFIP are suspect right now. Not really trying to make a point it's just an example of what we were talking about the other day.

 
looks like the weather is going to cooperate tomorrow, home run derby is better than nothing and at least we'll still have each other

 
ChainsawU said:
how are you feeling did you ever figure out what was wrong
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The neck pain is still just as bad but the lower back pain has dulled. If we're playing virtual doctor, costochondritis is likely the closest thing I could find with my symptoms.

I think you were right with the sore **** advice. Seems like it's going to subside.

The chest pain could have been a separate issue from the back and neck pain. I've had a tender chest - sternum from lifting before and I did do arm day the day before this all got worse.

Hopefully tomorrow is the breaking point. I've never had neck pain this bad before.

 
facook said:
Great call, totally forgot about that.  Can't wait to have a 40-1 longshot in the final pairing and not hedge on Sunday based on your sage advice. 

ETA: Sergio 33-1.
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:lmao:

You're the man facook. Anywho, @hooter311 was smoking these golf matchups this time last year.

Will send out the bat signal and see if he's got anything. He's been on a pretty good MMA run.

#hooterknows

 
ChainsawU said:
Get well soon.
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Thanks man, I appreciate it.

In regards to the Home Run Derby tomorrow, I found this article on MLB.com that lists who will be pitching to each batter.

LINK

1.) Jesus Aguilar - Brewers 1st Base Coach

2.) Bryce Harper - His dad

3.) Max Muncy - Dodgers Hitting Coach

4.) Alex Bregman - Astros Bullpen Catcher

5.) Kyle Scwarber - Retired real estate agent, former college baseball player

6.) Javier Baez - His brother

7.) Freddie Freeman - Braves infield instructor

8.) Rhys Hoskins - Minor League infield coordinator

The the most glaring take to me, is seeing that Bryce Harper's dad is likely pitching to him and that he's the +180 favorite to win the thing.

In fact, there are 3 participants who have pitchers that aren't even around the sport on a professional level (Baez, Harper, and Scwarber).

Furthermore, the next obvious angle we know of is that whoever bats 2nd knows how many HRs they need to hit and have the advantage of pace.

In 2015, 1 lower seed upset a higher seed.

In 2016, 3 lower seeds upset a higher seed (it was Giancarlo Stanton who won the whole thing).

In 2017, 2 lower seeds upset a higher seed.

In other words, the favorite is 15-6 in every Home Run Derby matchup under this new format. So you could likely blind bet all the favorites and won money depending on the juice.

Left side of the Bracket:

Aguilar (1) vs Hoskins (8)

Bregman (4) vs Scwarber (5)

If Aguilar can beat Hoskins, he guarantees himself a trip to the finals riding that #1 seed against either the Astros bullpen catcher or the Real Estate agent. Bregman should beat Scwarber on virtue of knowing how many he needs to hit and that he's going against a real estate agent. I like Hoskins as a dark horse. Guy is a brickhouse.

Right side of the Bracket:

Harper (2) vs Freeman (7)

Muncy (3) vs Baez (6)

If Bryce Harper is really having his dad pitch, he might be able to win the first round on seeing along but I can't see him getting to the Finals against Max Muncy. Freeman is a goner due to his seeding. Even if he gets past Harper, he's guaranteed to go 2nd against Muncy / Baez. Muncy should beat Baez on virtue of going 2nd and that Baez's brother is pitching to him.

So to me, that narrows the Finals down to:

Aguilar / Hoskins vs Harper / Muncy

Aguilar +400 to win

Hoskins +700 to win

Muncy +600 to win

I would skip out on Harper winning it all. It would require a 53 year old man to run an endurance gauntlet and beat out pitchers younger than him.

I think you can take him straight up in the first few rounds to cover your ### if he wins it all, but ultimately I think you can fade him.

There. There's not much more research that can be done on this thing.

 
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Don't forget to cap the park. The two years before last year it was that dude from the Reds. What was that guy's name. He just knew the strategy. But then last year all those swole dudes just roll through and check everything out of the park so strategy went out the window.

 
ChainsawU said:
Don't forget to cap the park. The two years before last year it was that dude from the Reds. What was that guy's name. He just knew the strategy. But then last year all those swole dudes just roll through and check everything out of the park so strategy went out the window.
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Agreed, that does play a factor, especially with the crowd. You know they will be extremely biased towards Bryce Harper. Sports psychology makes people do incredible things. If Aguilar goes down, Harper can ride that seed #2 seed to the finish.

If I recall correctly, Todd Frazier essentially cheated that year in Cincinnati. The rules say that you're supposed to wait for the ball to land before throwing the next pitch and Todd Frazier's brother was pitching early. He won with like 3 seconds left. But that's the benefit of going second, you can bend the rules a little.

The swole dudes get the benefit of the bonus 30 seconds too. If you get 2 HRs of 440 ft in a round, you get an extra 30 seconds. That's why Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton smoked the past two years, they were hitting them 500 ft and getting extra time, lol.

That's another thing too, you want guys that hit line drives home runs instead of moonshots. Quicker the home run, the quicker the next pitch.

Bregman, Freeman, Muncy, and Aguilar are the four guys that could have trouble getting the bonus time. The other 4 guys are in a different league from them as far as exit velocity goes.

I'm getting excited just talking about this. The new format kicks ###.

 
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Harper over Freeman, -220
Bregman over Scwarber, +140
Muncy over Baez, -150

Aguilar to win Bracket 1, +250
Schwarber to win Bracket 1, +250
Harper to win Bracket 2, +110

Aguilar to win +500
Muncy to win +600
Hoskins to win +800

Analysis:

Feel like these are safe bets overall.

If Harper loses Round 1, that pretty much guarantees someone from the left side of the Bracket wins this thing and makes Muncy the favorite from the right side of the bracket.

Bregman at plus money batting 2nd against Schwarber is too good of value to pass up. Whoever bats 2nd wins 71% of the time. Schwarber's pitcher is a real estate agent.

Muncy bats 2nd against Baez. Baez has his brother pitching to him.

Aguilar as the #1 seed at +250 is good value. Higher seed wins 71% of the time. If he gets past Hoskins, he should win that bracket easily.

Schwarber is the only real competition for Aguilar. Which is why I took him at +250 to win the bracket. If Hoskins beats Aguilar, Schwarber would bat second against him.

Harper to win his bracket at +110 is good value. He's guaranteed to bat 2nd until at least the Finals and if he loses before then, it opens up our longshots to win.

Aguilar at +500 to win is good value for the #1 seed. If he can get past Hoskins, he should get to the Final Round. Only other obstacle is Schwarber whom we already accounted for in an earlier bet.

Muncy at +600 is a good security blanket if Harper and father disappoint. At the #3 seed, he would bat 2nd in the event that Harper loses early. If Harper doesn't lose early, we got bets for him to win Round 1 and 2 that cover this bet.

Hoskins to win at +800 is my favorite bet. The guy is a complete machine and if he can upset Aguilar in Round 1 he has a good chance against Schwarber. If somehow Bregman beats Schwarber, we have a bet to cover that... and Hoskins would make short work of Bregman so we'd have our +800 bet in the Finals.

The only nightmare scenario I can see, is if Bregman the #4 seed and Baez the #6 seed both make the Finals.

BOL
 
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Small rumors starting that Machado to Phillies will happen on Wednesday. No national writers yet, just a Philly beat on sports talk with the proverbial source FWIW. Phils were +350 this morning. 

 
Stealing this from a dude on Tweeter:

"Couple of degenerate props for tonights #HomeRunDerby

Freeman, Baez, and Schwarber have not hit a home run past 440 feet this season (needed for the time bonus). They also have the 3 worst launch angles of all contestants tonight"

Bet all 3 no 30 second bonus earned at 5d.  What could go wrong?

 
facook said:
Stealing this from a dude on Tweeter:

"Couple of degenerate props for tonights #HomeRunDerby

Freeman, Baez, and Schwarber have not hit a home run past 440 feet this season (needed for the time bonus). They also have the 3 worst launch angles of all contestants tonight"

Bet all 3 no 30 second bonus earned at 5d.  What could go wrong?
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Freeman, I agree but Schwarber has one of the highest exit velocities of all the players in this thing.

Also, limiting it to just this season is kind of silly. His career long is 470 ft. Baez's is 463 ft so I can see some concern there. 

You can probably hit 2/3 which will win you money (unless the line is super juiced). Only fear is that if either guy wins their first round matchup, it increases their odds of getting the bonus by virtue of more opportunity.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Freeman, I agree but Schwarber has one of the highest exit velocities of all the players in this thing.

Also, limiting it to just this season is kind of silly. His career long is 470 ft. Baez's is 463 ft so I can see some concern there. 

You can probably hit 2/3 which will win you money (unless the line is super juiced). Only fear is that if either guy wins their first round matchup, it increases their odds of getting the bonus by virtue of more opportunity.
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Good points.  They are all +$ bets though, so I'll have some fun rooting against them. :)  

 
nice hit on Hoskins dudes.

Schwarber easily over 440 once...but also already gassed. lol

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
Freeman, I agree but Schwarber has one of the highest exit velocities of all the players in this thing.

Also, limiting it to just this season is kind of silly. His career long is 470 ft. Baez's is 463 ft so I can see some concern there. 

You can probably hit 2/3 which will win you money (unless the line is super juiced). Only fear is that if either guy wins their first round matchup, it increases their odds of getting the bonus by virtue of more opportunity.
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Twitter sucks butt.

 
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