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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

The Ref said:
@John Bender
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Hey buds. I usually post my write up wednesday and will def. get to it tomorrow.

Crazy enough, due to the matchups, things aren't as strong this year from what I can tell.  Looks like free money sunday may be in jeopardy, we once I post the write up, as we've done in previous years. Let's all workshop and discuss.

(Sorry been busy moving)

Cheers!

 
John Bender said:
Hey buds. I usually post my write up wednesday and will def. get to it tomorrow.

Crazy enough, due to the matchups, things aren't as strong this year from what I can tell.  Looks like free money sunday may be in jeopardy, we once I post the write up, as we've done in previous years. Let's all workshop and discuss.

(Sorry been busy moving)

Cheers!
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Yeah fade Jets (vs ####ty dolphins) and take ####ty Lions vs SF seem to not pass the smell test

maybe Saints under (look how bad their D is and the Browns were able to hang with the Stillers)

 
John Bender said:
Don't mess with Week 2 of the NFL. It's about all I have left in life.
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Don't mess with 30 years of being a jets fan. Its all i have left.

Kidding

I like zoccer so much now it figures...the jets will win the superbowl as my interest in football dwindles.

It was fun to watch the jets with what looks like the real deal though

 
Sept. 11, 2001 #Packers worked out a QB from Delaware (29 TD's 1 season). When all flights were grounded after the attacks, the rookie hung out with Brett Favre & Doug Pederson watching the news coverage on television that fateful Tuesday. The kid was #Bears head coach Matt Nagy.

 
The Ref said:
Sept. 11, 2001 #Packers worked out a QB from Delaware (29 TD's 1 season). When all flights were grounded after the attacks, the rookie hung out with Brett Favre & Doug Pederson watching the news coverage on television that fateful Tuesday. The kid was #Bears head coach Matt Nagy.
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Favre also marks each Sept 11 in the most solemn way possible, by not sending anybody pictures of his penis.

 
So a lot of the games got moved already or cancelled, and the ones that didn't the line dropped mo much not sure if any value

 
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John Bender said:
Hey buds. I usually post my write up wednesday and will def. get to it tomorrow.

Crazy enough, due to the matchups, things aren't as strong this year from what I can tell.  Looks like free money sunday may be in jeopardy, we once I post the write up, as we've done in previous years. Let's all workshop and discuss.

(Sorry been busy moving)

Cheers!
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The public is way down on the Cowboys from that 1 game but the defense looked decent and they play better from the lead. They averaged 3rd and 12 on their 3rd downs in this game due to penalties. I think that’s one game where we’re seeing a lot of conclusions being draw off 1 weird game script. 

Steelers at home will look better and Chiefs can’t do that EVERY game can they? 

Saints seems like a fit. 

The other 2 I might play would be Lions and Raiders because they’re the exact overreactions this is based on but the MNF hangover scares me some.  

The one I will absolutely not bet until further notice is Indy. I think Vegas was way off coming into the season on them, whiffed week1, and are still behind.  One of the Sagarin type systems must support them. 

 
I played cincy +3 when it opened, I'd still play at current number.  Overreaction to Baltimore dominating a really poor Bills team.

After saying that about Buffalo I still bet them at +8.5 -120 this week.

 
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In part of Bender's stuff.. Would the blowouts on Monday Night had big movement in all those 4 games upcoming

VisitorHomeLookaheadCurrent

Miami DolphinsNew York JetsDolphins (-1)Jets (-3)

Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles RamsRams (-8.5)Rams (-12)

Detroit LionsSan Francisco 49ers49ers (-3.5)49ers (-5.5)

Oakland RaidersDenver BroncosBroncos (-3)Broncos (-5.5)

 
lumpy19 said:
I played cincy +3 when it opened, I'd still play at current number.  Overreaction to Baltimore dominating a really poor Bills team.

After saying that about Buffalo I still bet them at +8.5 -120 this week.
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I agree here, I don't think I'm playing it because I already have a tremendous amount of exposure to Bengals having a good season on a number
of futures bets. That Colts game last weekend was a big win. A win here would be big as well, but it's a game they should win at home if they can
avoid being stupid.

 
John Bender said:
Fade Jets was the first thing I thought of. 
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Cardinals are one of worst 3 teams in the league, Rams one of 3 best.  I actually think the Cardinals are awful, and I'm as joe public as it gets.  Should fade the Rams.

 
Steve Makinen‏ @SteveMakinen

NFL Week 1 favorites of 6-points or more that lost their game have bounced back with a record of 13-3 SU & ATS (81.3%) in week 2 since '02.

Applies to Saints and Lions and imo fits the storyline of week 2 nfl overreaction.

 
I like the info so far. I didn't see any games, so just going off of the ESPN and Sports Talk Radio from the week.

We're gonna be rich boys.

 
Has to be a lot of sharp money on the Bills already for that number to keep dropping. No way they’re getting the public bets off that performance. 

 
Are we in on the Eagles? -3 moving towards juice at -115 at my local, feel like this fits the over-reaction angle to FitzMagic having the game of his life in NO last week.

 
So what does Week 2 over reaction look like? - I have the following possibilities

Cincy ( Baltimore looked like world beaters)

Buffalo ( They were terrible)

Pitt ( they tied CLE and KC rolled)

NO ( they lost to TB and CLE got a tie)

Det ( they lost to NYJ on MNF is spectacular fashion)

AZ +12.5 (they got blown out and LAR rolled)

MIA +3 - (the Jets are amazing)

maybe Oak - just cause the game got away from them in the 2nd half. 

Am i missing any or any that should not be on this list? 

 
Angry Beavers said:
So what does Week 2 over reaction look like? - I have the following possibilities

Cincy ( Baltimore looked like world beaters)

Buffalo ( They were terrible)

Pitt ( they tied CLE and KC rolled)

NO ( they lost to TB and CLE got a tie)

Det ( they lost to NYJ on MNF is spectacular fashion)

AZ +12.5 (they got blown out and LAR rolled)

MIA +3 - (the Jets are amazing)

maybe Oak - just cause the game got away from them in the 2nd half. 

Am i missing any or any that should not be on this list? 
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I'll yield to JB, but I don't think Cinci belongs.  IMO their win over the Colts made them look good.  If they were playing another team they'd be a fade for me.

 
Feel free to chime in. But I know in the past I don't even care what the spread is this early in the week, I'll look Sunday morning to see which way things have moved but generally will ignore them.

Baltimore +.5 @ Cincinnati : 2 Week 1 winners, just on principle, we don't play this for this exercise.

Cleveland +8.5 @ New Orleans: New Orleans defense got thrashed. Cleveland got a tie, but did so in horrible weather conditions and IMO didn't look all that impressive either. I think a slight lean on New Orleans here. Feel like that line though is a little disrespectful though. But right, we ignore it And we take the Saints. Saints were garbage. Browns eeked out a tie in a matchup where they were dogs. Slight lean Saints - betting for .5 unit. SAints were embarassed though so if you wanted to go a full unit on them, I would be in favor of that. I love the trend facook posted above

Kansas City +5.5 @ Pittsburgh: The Chiefs looked quite good and the Patty Mahomes hype train is rolling. Pitt looked awful and may be awful. How they are laying nearly 6 points is beyond me. If it weren't week 2, I'd probably bet the Chiefs, but for this exercise. Firm on the Steelers - betting for 1 unit. One of the stronger plays on the slate.

Miami +2.5 @ New York Jets: I'd say this is a no brainer Miami play, but Miami won. And looked "okay-ish". It's not traditional to bet a team that won in Week 1 for this exercise, even as much hype as the Jets are getting. I still think Jets is a very small play not No bet for the purposes of this exercise. We need the synergy here of both teams being perceived in opposite manners and because the opponent is Miami, I don't think you can make this a strong one. If it were the Saints instead of Miami, I'd be betting my mortgage on New Orleans

LA Chargers -7.5 @ Buffalo: Again, as per the above, the Chargers didn't necessarily set the world on fire last week either. Buffalo is the play here, but it's very small play because of the lack of synergy with a Chargers loss last week. You can totally envision a world where they come in and absolutely smoke the Bills out. I wouldn't be mad if you wanted to take the Bills here though because of the fact they have been talked about as possibly the worst team in the league this week by all of ESPN. No bet for me but you can roll with Buffalo here and I wouldn't hate it. If the Chargers won last week, I'd be all over the Bills. They didn't, they didn't look good either. 

Indianapolis +5.5 @ Washington: The Skins looked quite good against a horrible Arizona team. Indy looked quite bad. This is Slight lean indianapolis for .5 unit - I'd bump this up if the Skins hadn't beaten up on what is an awful team and since we're gonna have a big slate. I'm using some discipline with the bank roll. FAIR ENOUGH!?

Houston +.5 @ Tennessee: Both teams lost. There's nothing to be gleaned here. Weather might also be a factor. We're a NO BET on this one

Philly -3.5 @ Tampa Bay: The only issue here is that the Eagles won last week. We can't go all in but we can ignore the Bucs great start last week and hammer the Eagles for a full unit. I'd feel better about it if they lost but I've heard way too much about Ryan Fitzpatrick actually not being a bum this week. Philly for 1 unit

Minnesota +.5 @ Green Bay: Both teams won. No bet

Carolina +5.5 @ Atlanta: Panthers win, Falcons lose, but there's not a lot of talk surrounding either team to give me a strong feel for this one. We have to take Atlanta though in this spot based on the system. Slight lean Atlanta, .5 unit

Detroit +5.5 @ San Francisco: "DEtroit is the worst team ever". Only issue here is that San Fran lost too so we lack the double whammy to support this one for a full unit right now. If San Fran looked like world beaters last week, it's an easy Detroit play. Still based on sentiment. Slight lean Detroit .5 unit, but if you want to fully support them up to a full unit. I wouldn't hate that at all. I think it's a strong play. Stronger if San Fran had won their game last week.

Arizona +12.5 @ LA Rams:  Need we even discuss? Strongest play of the week by a mile. Strong play on Arizona at least 1 unit, if not more. - not much else to talk about on this one. You just gotta trust the system and make money where we can.

Oakland +5.5 @ Denver: Denver won but there is no hype behind them. And Case didn't really play all that well from an efficiency standpoint. Oakland got beat on. We have to take some Oakland here. Slight lean, Oakland .5 unit - this one feels kinda bad as a road divisional game, but it shouldn't. We just did it with the Cards and that's how we roll in week 2.

New England -1.5 @ Jax: 2 week 1 winners. No play - firm

G-Men +2.5 @ Dallas: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Seattle +3.5 @ Chicago: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Where was I wrong, way off? I've tried to take in all the talk radio I could this week and listen to all of the narratives.

Saints
Colts
Eagles
Falcons
Lions
Oakland

STRONGEST PLAYS:
Steelers
Arizona

That's a lot of poopy teams we're betting on. Hold your noses.

 
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John Bender said:
Feel free to chime in. But I know in the past I don't even care what the spread is this early in the week, I'll look Sunday morning to see which way things have moved but generally will ignore them.

Baltimore +.5 @ Cincinnati : 2 Week 1 winners, just on principle, we don't play this for this exercise.

Cleveland +8.5 @ New Orleans: New Orleans defense got thrashed. Cleveland got a tie, but did so in horrible weather conditions and IMO didn't look all that impressive either. I think a slight lean on New Orleans here. Feel like that line though is a little disrespectful though. But right, we ignore it And we take the Saints. Saints were garbage. Browns eeked out a tie in a matchup where they were dogs. Slight lean Saints - betting for .5 unit. SAints were embarassed though so if you wanted to go a full unit on them, I would be in favor of that. I love the trend facook posted above

Kansas City +5.5 @ Pittsburgh: The Chiefs looked quite good and the Patty Mahomes hype train is rolling. Pitt looked awful and may be awful. How they are laying nearly 6 points is beyond me. If it weren't week 2, I'd probably bet the Chiefs, but for this exercise. Firm on the Steelers - betting for 1 unit. One of the stronger plays on the slate.

Miami +2.5 @ New York Jets: I'd say this is a no brainer Miami play, but Miami won. And looked "okay-ish". It's not traditional to bet a team that won in Week 1 for this exercise, even as much hype as the Jets are getting. I still think Jets is a very small play not No bet for the purposes of this exercise. We need the synergy here of both teams being perceived in opposite manners and because the opponent is Miami, I don't think you can make this a strong one. If it were the Saints instead of Miami, I'd be betting my mortgage on New Orleans

LA Chargers -7.5 @ Buffalo: Again, as per the above, the Chargers didn't necessarily set the world on fire last week either. Buffalo is the play here, but it's very small play because of the lack of synergy with a Chargers loss last week. You can totally envision a world where they come in and absolutely smoke the Bills out. I wouldn't be mad if you wanted to take the Bills here though because of the fact they have been talked about as possibly the worst team in the league this week by all of ESPN. No bet for me but you can roll with Buffalo here and I wouldn't hate it. If the Chargers won last week, I'd be all over the Bills. They didn't, they didn't look good either. 

Indianapolis +5.5 @ Washington: The Skins looked quite good against a horrible Arizona team. Indy looked quite bad. This is Slight lean indianapolis for .5 unit - I'd bump this up if the Skins hadn't beaten up on what is an awful team and since we're gonna have a big slate. I'm using some discipline with the bank roll. FAIR ENOUGH!?

Houston +.5 @ Tennessee: Both teams lost. There's nothing to be gleaned here. Weather might also be a factor. We're a NO BET on this one

Philly -3.5 @ Tampa Bay: The only issue here is that the Eagles won last week. We can't go all in but we can ignore the Bucs great start last week and hammer the Eagles for a full unit. I'd feel better about it if they lost but I've heard way too much about Ryan Fitzpatrick actually not being a bum this week. Philly for 1 unit

Minnesota +.5 @ Green Bay: Both teams won. No bet

Carolina +5.5 @ Atlanta: Panthers win, Falcons lose, but there's not a lot of talk surrounding either team to give me a strong feel for this one. We have to take Atlanta though in this spot based on the system. Slight lean Atlanta, .5 unit

Detroit +5.5 @ San Francisco: "DEtroit is the worst team ever". Only issue here is that San Fran lost too so we lack the double whammy to support this one for a full unit right now. If San Fran looked like world beaters last week, it's an easy Detroit play. Still based on sentiment. Slight lean Detroit .5 unit, but if you want to fully support them up to a full unit. I wouldn't hate that at all. I think it's a strong play. Stronger if San Fran had won their game last week.

Arizona +12.5 @ LA Rams:  Need we even discuss? Strongest play of the week by a mile. Strong play on Arizona at least 1 unit, if not more. - not much else to talk about on this one. You just gotta trust the system and make money where we can.

Oakland +5.5 @ Denver: Denver won but there is no hype behind them. And Case didn't really play all that well from an efficiency standpoint. Oakland got beat on. We have to take some Oakland here. Slight lean, Oakland .5 unit - this one feels kinda bad as a road divisional game, but it shouldn't. We just did it with the Cards and that's how we roll in week 2.

New England -1.5 @ Jax: 2 week 1 winners. No play - firm

G-Men +2.5 @ Dallas: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Seattle +3.5 @ Chicago: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Where was I wrong, way off? I've tried to take in all the talk radio I could this week and listen to all of the narratives.

Saints
Colts
Eagles
Falcons
Lions
Oakland

STRONGEST PLAYS:
Steelers
Arizona

That's a lot of poopy teams we're betting on. Hold your noses.
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TL,DR

 
Didn't someone in here (prolly Mo) suggest a play of over 75 or 80 wins for the Phillies coming in to the year?  They seem to be losing a #### ton after winning a #### ton all year and I thought someone said the win total was under 80, dunno now.

 
facook said:
I'll yield to JB, but I don't think Cinci belongs.  IMO their win over the Colts made them look good.  If they were playing another team they'd be a fade for me.
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Total yield to JB for certain - just figured I would get a conversation going!

The only reason I included Cincy cause Baltimore was so dominant, but I see the reasoning behind excluding them. 

 
got_nugs said:
Didn't someone in here (prolly Mo) suggest a play of over 75 or 80 wins for the Phillies coming in to the year?  They seem to be losing a #### ton after winning a #### ton all year and I thought someone said the win total was under 80, dunno now.
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I played it at over 76.5

 
John Bender said:
Feel free to chime in. But I know in the past I don't even care what the spread is this early in the week, I'll look Sunday morning to see which way things have moved but generally will ignore them.

Baltimore +.5 @ Cincinnati : 2 Week 1 winners, just on principle, we don't play this for this exercise.

Cleveland +8.5 @ New Orleans: New Orleans defense got thrashed. Cleveland got a tie, but did so in horrible weather conditions and IMO didn't look all that impressive either. I think a slight lean on New Orleans here. Feel like that line though is a little disrespectful though. But right, we ignore it And we take the Saints. Saints were garbage. Browns eeked out a tie in a matchup where they were dogs. Slight lean Saints - betting for .5 unit. SAints were embarassed though so if you wanted to go a full unit on them, I would be in favor of that. I love the trend facook posted above

Kansas City +5.5 @ Pittsburgh: The Chiefs looked quite good and the Patty Mahomes hype train is rolling. Pitt looked awful and may be awful. How they are laying nearly 6 points is beyond me. If it weren't week 2, I'd probably bet the Chiefs, but for this exercise. Firm on the Steelers - betting for 1 unit. One of the stronger plays on the slate.

Miami +2.5 @ New York Jets: I'd say this is a no brainer Miami play, but Miami won. And looked "okay-ish". It's not traditional to bet a team that won in Week 1 for this exercise, even as much hype as the Jets are getting. I still think Jets is a very small play not No bet for the purposes of this exercise. We need the synergy here of both teams being perceived in opposite manners and because the opponent is Miami, I don't think you can make this a strong one. If it were the Saints instead of Miami, I'd be betting my mortgage on New Orleans

LA Chargers -7.5 @ Buffalo: Again, as per the above, the Chargers didn't necessarily set the world on fire last week either. Buffalo is the play here, but it's very small play because of the lack of synergy with a Chargers loss last week. You can totally envision a world where they come in and absolutely smoke the Bills out. I wouldn't be mad if you wanted to take the Bills here though because of the fact they have been talked about as possibly the worst team in the league this week by all of ESPN. No bet for me but you can roll with Buffalo here and I wouldn't hate it. If the Chargers won last week, I'd be all over the Bills. They didn't, they didn't look good either. 

Indianapolis +5.5 @ Washington: The Skins looked quite good against a horrible Arizona team. Indy looked quite bad. This is Slight lean indianapolis for .5 unit - I'd bump this up if the Skins hadn't beaten up on what is an awful team and since we're gonna have a big slate. I'm using some discipline with the bank roll. FAIR ENOUGH!?

Houston +.5 @ Tennessee: Both teams lost. There's nothing to be gleaned here. Weather might also be a factor. We're a NO BET on this one

Philly -3.5 @ Tampa Bay: The only issue here is that the Eagles won last week. We can't go all in but we can ignore the Bucs great start last week and hammer the Eagles for a full unit. I'd feel better about it if they lost but I've heard way too much about Ryan Fitzpatrick actually not being a bum this week. Philly for 1 unit

Minnesota +.5 @ Green Bay: Both teams won. No bet

Carolina +5.5 @ Atlanta: Panthers win, Falcons lose, but there's not a lot of talk surrounding either team to give me a strong feel for this one. We have to take Atlanta though in this spot based on the system. Slight lean Atlanta, .5 unit

Detroit +5.5 @ San Francisco: "DEtroit is the worst team ever". Only issue here is that San Fran lost too so we lack the double whammy to support this one for a full unit right now. If San Fran looked like world beaters last week, it's an easy Detroit play. Still based on sentiment. Slight lean Detroit .5 unit, but if you want to fully support them up to a full unit. I wouldn't hate that at all. I think it's a strong play. Stronger if San Fran had won their game last week.

Arizona +12.5 @ LA Rams:  Need we even discuss? Strongest play of the week by a mile. Strong play on Arizona at least 1 unit, if not more. - not much else to talk about on this one. You just gotta trust the system and make money where we can.

Oakland +5.5 @ Denver: Denver won but there is no hype behind them. And Case didn't really play all that well from an efficiency standpoint. Oakland got beat on. We have to take some Oakland here. Slight lean, Oakland .5 unit - this one feels kinda bad as a road divisional game, but it shouldn't. We just did it with the Cards and that's how we roll in week 2.

New England -1.5 @ Jax: 2 week 1 winners. No play - firm

G-Men +2.5 @ Dallas: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Seattle +3.5 @ Chicago: 2 week 2 losers. No play - firm

Where was I wrong, way off? I've tried to take in all the talk radio I could this week and listen to all of the narratives.

Saints
Colts
Eagles
Falcons
Lions
Oakland

STRONGEST PLAYS:
Steelers
Arizona

That's a lot of poopy teams we're betting on. Hold your noses.
Click to expand...
:wub:

I will play it (waiting until, hopefully, it hits 14) but the one that makes me nervous is Arizona.  I think they might legit be terrible and I do think the Rams are very good.  But yeah we follow the exercise.  

For the record, I got to go to Vegas a couple of years back for Week 2 NFL (which was the last time the Bucs beat NO at home as HUGE dogs) and I was about the only guy in the book who was happy on Sunday.  My buddies HATED me.  And it was all due to JB.  Wish I could convince them to got back for another Week 2.

 
facook said:
:wub:

I will play it (waiting until, hopefully, it hits 14) but the one that makes me nervous is Arizona.  I think they might legit be terrible and I do think the Rams are very good.  But yeah we follow the exercise.  

For the record, I got to go to Vegas a couple of years back for Week 2 NFL (which was the last time the Bucs beat NO at home as HUGE dogs) and I was about the only guy in the book who was happy on Sunday.  My buddies HATED me.  And it was all due to JB.  Wish I could convince them to got back for another Week 2.
Click to expand...
All that dead money on week 2. People getting over excited and over hyped after 1 week of football. I'd love to see the numbers for Vegas Books on NFL Week 2. This is all anecdotal on my part admittedly, but I definitely know for a fact we haven't had a losing day in 5 or 6 years in this thread doings this.

I remember the Brown beating the Saints outright a few years back was one of my biggest cashes ever on a Week 2.

A lot of guys get scared too of the teams that are truly just terrible, so don't sweat it and trust the process.  They're going to be terrible all year, but the oddsmakers know that, and that's why we're getting so much value on these lines. Week 2 at +14 seems like a big rarity. Vegas knows. 

 
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Oklahoma has lost 9 of last 100 home games.  Lost as 38 point faves to Iowa State at home last year.  In the previous home-loss-revenge spots, Oklahoma is 8-0 SU and ATS by an average score of 43-9 per Mark Lawrence.  OU -18 faves at Iowa State this weekend.

 
I like Baltimore tomorrow. Say all you want about the overreaction to them destroying a horrible Buffalo team but Cincy beat a pretty bad Indy team.  I said before that game "why is Indy favored here?". 

Also, let us not forget how bad the Red Rifle plays in high pressure, prime time games. The Baltimore defense is just a tad bit better than Indy's and will give Daulton fits.

Take Baltimore tomorrow (pk).

And I like Collins to redeem himself and have a solid game.

 
eoMMan said:
I like Baltimore tomorrow. Say all you want about the overreaction to them destroying a horrible Buffalo team but Cincy beat a pretty bad Indy team.  I said before that game "why is Indy favored here?". 

Also, let us not forget how bad the Red Rifle plays in high pressure, prime time games. The Baltimore defense is just a tad bit better than Indy's and will give Daulton fits.

Take Baltimore tomorrow (pk).

And I like Collins to redeem himself and have a solid game.
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I lean Cincy, but more than that I like u 21.5 in the 1H.  1 excellent D and 1 decent D vs an O that is not super explosive IMO, both on a short week.  So you all should probably fade facookpublic.

 
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