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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

Walking Boot said:
Curious, is there a site I could check to see what's being wagered on each game? Like, "we've taken in $523,262 on the Ravens tonight, and $420442 on the Bengals" or something like that?
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As far a I know, %'s is as good as you will get and I question how reliable that data is at times. You will never get the $ bet on a game as that information is closely guarded. 

Something like this is probably as good as it gets.. unless you have a subscription somewhere. 

https://twitter.com/Covers/status/1038817258540335106

 
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I'm out of the penalty box!!!!

Betting Yildrim -170 and Cook/Munguia un 7.5 for this weekend. There was an awesome lined that flashed open in Europe, Jose Ramirez -225, but that's long gone so no play there.

No real feel for the big one. Public's on Canelo, even with his question marks (lack of PEDs, a knee surgery a few months ago). It is not an overstatement to say that Golden Boy, his promoter, HBO Sports, and even the city of Las Vegas to some extent have a lot riding on this one. Canelo will still be a draw if he loses, but not to the same extent imo. It's likely to go to the cards, and the judges they have all have a decent rep, but man, I can't pull the trigger on GGG knowing the economic disruption that he can cause here. GGG is a draw to a lesser extent, but nowhere near the level of Alvarez.

In the ring, it should be another great fight. Small lean on it to go the distance, but not enough to bet.

 
Greetings everyone,

You probably noticed that I've been gone the past 3-weeks. I do have to apologize. I was attending a wedding of a close associate of mine in the Midwest and have been unable to provide you guys with the quality winners you have come to expect.

As you might remember, I hit a torrid 60% on NFL last season and had payout totals in the thousands of dollars. We were all cashing and slapping high fives and then NBA season rolled around and WE MADE EVEN MORE MONEY.

I don't have a time machine, but my word is my bond. I made a committment many moons ago that I would NEVER LET YOU DOWN. I made a committment to provide you as MANY WINNERS AS MY BRAIN COULD PROVIDE.

Well I've got good news for you. Your intellectual savior has returned and he has WINNERS for you tonight. I plan to crush NFL just as much as I crushed it last year.  Thursday Night Football is SLOPPY. Teams are tired. Coaches have less time to prepare. The whole world will be watching... and WE, WE will be the beneficiaries.
So again, my sincerist apologies for taking 3-weeks of personal time for myself. But tonight we dine on the blood of the bookies.

Your friend,

Stuart Ullman
#WORLDSGREATESTTOUT

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Greetings everyone,

You probably noticed that I've been gone the past 3-weeks. I do have to apologize. I was attending a wedding of a close associate of mine in the Midwest and have been unable to provide you guys with the quality winners you have come to expect.

As you might remember, I hit a torrid 60% on NFL last season and had payout totals in the thousands of dollars. We were all cashing and slapping high fives and then NBA season rolled around and WE MADE EVEN MORE MONEY.

I don't have a time machine, but my word is my bond. I made a committment many moons ago that I would NEVER LET YOU DOWN. I made a committment to provide you as MANY WINNERS AS MY BRAIN COULD PROVIDE.

Well I've got good news for you. Your intellectual savior has returned and he has WINNERS for you tonight. I plan to crush NFL just as much as I crushed it last year.  Thursday Night Football is SLOPPY. Teams are tired. Coaches have less time to prepare. The whole world will be watching... and WE, WE will be the beneficiaries.
So again, my sincerist apologies for taking 3-weeks of personal time for myself. But tonight we dine on the blood of the bookies.

Your friend,

Stuart Ullman
#WORLDSGREATESTTOUT
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Um, actually, that's not at all how I remember it. Hmm.

 
Ended up capping this game like it was the ####### Super Bowl. Strongest plays have ***** next to them.

Sides:
1H - Bengals ML, -115 *****
1H - U21.5, -120
Ravens TT U23, -115
Game Total U44, -110
Adjusted Total U36.5, +210

Game Props:
Ravens / Bengals U5 Touchdowns scored, -130
Neither team score 3 consecutive times, +150
Largest lead of the game U13.5, EVEN
TOTAL Field Goals Made O3.5, -120
1st Score NOT Touchdown, +130 *****
No Score in 1st 6:30 of game, -135

Player Props:
Joe Mixon total receptions U3, +110
Joe Mixon total rushing yards U68.5, -115
Willie Snead total receptions U3, +120
John Brown total receptions U3, +110
Michael Crabtree longest reception U21.5, -115 *****
Joe Flacco longest completion U37.5, -110 *****

BRACKET (hedge, 1/4 unit size):
Ravens win by 04-06, +950
Ravens win by 07-10, +725
Ravens win by 11-13, +1600
Ravens win by 14-17, +1100

 
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Some dude bumped my plays off the page.
NOT COOL, PAL.
 

Sides:
1H - Bengals ML, -115 *****
1H - U21.5, -120
Ravens TT U23, -115
Game Total U44, -110
Adjusted Total U36.5, +210

Game Props:
Ravens / Bengals U5 Touchdowns scored, -130
Neither team score 3 consecutive times, +150
Largest lead of the game U13.5, EVEN
TOTAL Field Goals Made O3.5, -120
1st Score NOT Touchdown, +130 *****
No Score in 1st 6:30 of game, -135

Player Props:
Joe Mixon total receptions U3, +110
Joe Mixon total rushing yards U68.5, -115
Willie Snead total receptions U3, +120
John Brown total receptions U3, +110
Michael Crabtree longest reception U21.5, -115 *****
Joe Flacco longest completion U37.5, -110 *****

BRACKET (hedge, 1/4 unit size):
Ravens win by 04-06, +950
Ravens win by 07-10, +725
Ravens win by 11-13, +1600
Ravens win by 14-17, +1100

 
Angry Beavers said:
These midweek games are terrible and difficult to predict. 
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Oh yeah, I'm not too worried about it.

It's one game that you're kind of "forced" to bet on since there's nothing else on. There's fourteen games more on Sunday. I'd be happy and fine walking away at 40% here, since on a normal night I wouldn't have made 17 plays on a Bengals / Ravens game, lol.  :thumbup:

 
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F5 - Mariners / Angels O4.5, -130

Both their seasons are done. They're not really playing for crap and are essentially going to be swinging for power all game, packing their bags, and coming home. Bullpen game for the Angels.

 
got_nugs said:
Didn't someone in here (prolly Mo) suggest a play of over 75 or 80 wins for the Phillies coming in to the year?  They seem to be losing a #### ton after winning a #### ton all year and I thought someone said the win total was under 80, dunno now.
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I think a lot of us jumped on the day they signed Arrietta.   I got them at 77.5 for a small car so I need them to go 4-12 the rest of the way but at one point two weeks ago it was like 6-25..... they have looked dreadfull

 
2H TILT

Alex Collins 2nd Half Rushing yards O27.5, -130
Joe Flacco U138.5 passing yards, -120
John Brown U33.5, -120
Andy Dalton U10 completions, EVEN
No score in 1st 6.5, -130

@gussy you want to wring me a new ####### now or later?  :lol:

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
2H TILT

Alex Collins 2nd Half Rushing yards O27.5, -130
Joe Flacco U138.5 passing yards, -120
John Brown U33.5, -120
Andy Dalton U10 completions, EVEN
No score in 1st 6.5, -130

@gussy you want to wring me a new ####### now or later?  :lol:
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If you like throwing money away what business is it of mine oh greatest tout ever?

 
NFL teams starting the season with two road games are 0–12 ATS In week 2 since 2015. (Seattle, KC, Hou) 

 
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Read something that would trend against Philly and for TB - small sample size but....

Going back to 1989, , Super Bowl champs that covered in Week 1 have gone 2-8 ATS in their Week 2 road game

Since 1988, only 17 Superbowlchamps have played their second game away from home. In those contests, the previous season’s Super Bowl winner has gone 5-12 against the spread (ATS).

 
Angry Beavers said:
Read something that would trend against Philly and for TB - small sample size but....

Going back to 1989, , Super Bowl champs that covered in Week 1 have gone 2-8 ATS in their Week 2 road game

Since 1988, only 17 Superbowlchamps have played their second game away from home. In those contests, the previous season’s Super Bowl winner has gone 5-12 against the spread (ATS).
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What's the record since the SB champ has started opening up on a Thursday thus game 2 having 10 days rest/prep?

 
This came from a table that did not copy very well and I am short on time. (Friday Night Lights for young AB)  My apologies the formatting is awful. 

2004 the kickoff game started ..  Looks like 4-7 ATS with the Pats having 3 of the 4 covers........  

Year         Team        Cover Week 2?

2017        Patriots     Yes

2015        Patriots      Yes

2014        Seahawks  No

2011       Packers         No

2010      Saints          No

2009     Steelers        No

2008     Giants        Yes

2007       Colts      No

2006    Steelers      No

2005     Patriots        No

2004     Patriots      Yes

GLTA
AB

 
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Angry Beavers said:
Read something that would trend against Philly and for TB - small sample size but....

Going back to 1989, , Super Bowl champs that covered in Week 1 have gone 2-8 ATS in their Week 2 road game

Since 1988, only 17 Superbowlchamps have played their second game away from home. In those contests, the previous season’s Super Bowl winner has gone 5-12 against the spread (ATS).
Click to expand...
Seems kinda random stat IMHO

 
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