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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (14 Viewers)

eoMMan said:
Any good stats on home NFL defenses playing on Thursday night? I'm really digging Cleveland Thursday at home against against The Ref's boy, D'Arnold.  Cleveland's defense is legit this year. 
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ChainsawU said:
Since 1990 only 11 teams have tried to play three games in eleven days. The Jets go into Cleveland and will try to win in that situation on Thursday. I don't think it's going to be pretty. Browns win by double digits & I already picked up Browns DST to plug in dynasty.
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2 Team Teaser (ties win) Pleaser tw 7pts NFL:

  1. 9/20/2018 8:20 PM NFL Football 302 Cleveland Browns -10 vs New York Jets
  2. OPEN
+700

 
facook said:
Tailing.  let me know when we close that puppy.
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I had always wished I'd sold some points on the under in this game last year. I had a unit on the over. Everyone and their dog expected the game to fly over the total, all the analysts were referencing the O/U in their articles and broadcasts. Then it never even came close. Maybe we can find one of those. How much is 7 points really worth on an NCAA total of 70 compared to 7 points in an NFC West grind-it-out division matchup, for example.

 
 F5 - Blue Jays ML, -125 (L)
Indians score first, -130 (W)
Rangers / Rays no run scored in first inning, -110 (W)
F5 - Mariners / Astros O4.5, -115 (L)
F5 - Angels / Athletics O4.5, +105 (W)

3-2 (60%)

Not as good of a day as ChainsawU and his Cardinals banger. But eeked out a winning day at the end with some plus money. 

Talk the talk, walk the walk.

 
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ChainsawU said:
I had always wished I'd sold some points on the under in this game last year. I had a unit on the over. Everyone and their dog expected the game to fly over the total, all the analysts were referencing the O/U in their articles and broadcasts. Then it never even came close. Maybe we can find one of those. How much is 7 points really worth on an NCAA total of 70 compared to 7 points in an NFC West grind-it-out division matchup, for example.
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FAU/CFU Over 82 on Friday?  :D

 
Sportsbook.ag sent one of my accounts a free $10 casino bonus.....won 4 hands in a row and withdrew the $160.  Amazing to me that they still send these out, especially to limited accounts.

 
lumpy19 said:
Sportsbook.ag sent one of my accounts a free $10 casino bonus.....won 4 hands in a row and withdrew the $160.  Amazing to me that they still send these out, especially to limited accounts.
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I’ve lost my last few on the first hand :kicksrock:

made out pretty well with them on BJ last year but then got wasted on New Years Eve and blew through a bunch of it

 
The Ref said:
I’m thinking about making the ride up to Orlando for this one, and yes I’m serious.

i like UCF (it is UCF BTW, an alum will kick your ### for saying CFU) minus the points myself.
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Yep already took UCFU -13.5 and over the 75.  Can’t watch this game (and I WILL be watching) and not cheer for points.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I personally don't like those "statistical trends" as the sole basis of making plays. @TheGooRoo, everyone's God in this thread pretty much told me that "system plays" are bull####. And believe me, @swirvenirvin doesn't use a computer to tell him what player props to play; nor does @Good Posting Judgehave a computer telling him what K props to make. It's a feel.

Look at two teams. Determine how the matchups are going to play out, make a bet. Don't let a computer make decisions for you on something that should be subjective, imo. Especially trends that go back years and years and have no correlation to the players on the field; rule changes that have been made since then.

There's no cheat codes. You have to understand the play and tendencies going on, on the field. You might get lucky but you might as well take your money to the roulette table...
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I don't look at trends but basically I plug a lot of numbers into Excel, compare against the number, and then make a play or not. There's not a lot of qualitative analysis, or needing to watch games. Really brilliant guys can incorporate some "eye test" into a good statistical base and it can help them, but I don't think it would help me. I guess some "feel" does come into play when trying to, say, project an NBA player's minutes (so you can then project points, rebs., etc).

Also boxing capping is almost by eye, there really isn't any other way, which it makes it more "accessible", I guess.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I don't look at trends but basically I plug a lot of numbers into Excel, compare against the number, and then make a play or not. There's not a lot of qualitative analysis, or needing to watch games. Really brilliant guys can incorporate some "eye test" into a good statistical base and it can help them, but I don't think it would help me. I guess some "feel" does come into play when trying to, say, project an NBA player's minutes (so you can then project points, rebs., etc).

Also boxing capping is almost by eye, there really isn't any other way, which it makes it more "accessible", I guess.
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I'd kill a man to get my hands on your K Props secret formula. 

 
Phillies / Mets U25.5 HRE, -110

Swirving a little bit out of my lane on this one, but my current bankroll will allow me to do so.

Two elite pitchers in this game and you normally only need one for a bet like this to have a chance to cover.

Limited home run exposure on both sides of the pitching matchup. Home runs are what KILL bets like these. Plus, there is an 8MPH wind gust coming in from center field. Of course, that might not matter much with how hard Thor throws the ball.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I personally don't like those "statistical trends" as the sole basis of making plays. @TheGooRoo, everyone's God in this thread pretty much told me that "system plays" are bull####. And believe me, @swirvenirvin doesn't use a computer to tell him what player props to play; nor does @Good Posting Judgehave a computer telling him what K props to make. It's a feel.

Look at two teams. Determine how the matchups are going to play out, make a bet. Don't let a computer make decisions for you on something that should be subjective, imo. Especially trends that go back years and years and have no correlation to the players on the field; rule changes that have been made since then.

There's no cheat codes. You have to understand the play and tendencies going on, on the field. You might get lucky but you might as well take your money to the roulette table...
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Swirve has some pretty detailed spreadsheets 

 
Dominant stat of the day.

Carlos Carrasco has given up 5 hits and 0 ER against the White Sox through 14 innings this year.

If you're a trend guy, you like Indians score 1st at -145. If you're a regression guy, you like White Sox F5 / FG at +285.

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
F5 - Astros -0.5, -120

Looking like a dud of a day but willing to go down swinging. Bullpen game vs Keuchel. Hope Cruz doesn't burn us..
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So I made this play to compensate for the Mets / Phillies play that looked like it was going to lose. Now, the Mets / Phillies play looks like it's going to win and the Astros / Mariners play is going to lose.

Sometimes you just end up chasing your own tail (yes, I have a tail). Since we're essentially back to square one on those two bets...

F5 - Giants / Padres U4, -120

This is one of those plays that you let the book do all the work for you. The line is 4 runs, so they're telling us it's supposed to be a low scoring game. I'm not going to argue.

Did a little research and neither pitcher has given up more than 2 ER against each other this year. So, in theory the 4 looks like a nice spot to push, if not win. I'm sure you can find the hook out there somewhere.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Swirve has some pretty detailed spreadsheets 
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watching does help in football as stats can always like.  Watching the Bears the week before was the season for the Gabriel plays.  Week 1 bought into the Miller hype, noticed that Gabriel by design has at least 3 very easy catches specifically designed for him around the line of scrimmage.  Was mad those weren't designed for Miller, but then in week 2 you see a 2.5 being hung out there that helps.

The spreadsheet help track my plays and historically what I'm doing vs certain type of plays.  Dont do as much attention the last few years as the other 4 or 5 yrs were pretty true each

 
Oh great, I placed a bet on the Rockies ML but Betnow.eu says I was logged out.

So I log back on and place it again. Totally just accidentally doubled up on a +195 line. ####### crooks.

 
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Tiger Fan said:
I had a withdrawal request on my bovada account today that I didn't make :oldunsure:   Thank god I only have $57 in there.  Had to call, and now am awaiting something from their security
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just got off the phone with them, they said that their investigation said it looks like something was breached in relation to my email address, so they credited my $57.  They wouldn't provide me any additional details b/c it doesn't add up.  I don't have any passwords saved in my email, and I show no other funny activity of any kind that would indicate that something was wrong with my email.  I pressed them on this and they said that for security reasons they couldn't give me any detail.

My take is that they have no clue what happened and since it was only $57, they refunded it.  I went ahead and changed my pws on all my gambling accounts just in case....but buyer beware.

 
2-3-1

Subpar, but I'll take it! Sure as hell felt like I was doing a lot worse than that. ?

Got robbed on F5 - Rockies ML, +195 at the last minute. Broke up my streak of 3 consecutive non-losing days.

 
Disclaimer: The contents of this spoiler tag are incredibly stupid. Reading it's entire contents will be a waste of 30 seconds you will never get back.

You have been warned.

I'm not exactly sure why it's happening, but to pass the time during MLB games I've been live betting soccer corner kick unders (stupid, I know). With the logic being to bet the under on games where the home team is winning.

Home team winning equals, they just kind of kick the ball around and play defense. Which reduces shots on goal and therefore corner kicks. Now, this isn't a post telling you to do the same. In fact, it's the opposite. I've been losing quite a few of these plays and for whatever reason, this particular book keeps grading them as winners.

The first time, I just ignored it as dumb luck that they would later fix. Hours later, nope! Money still in the account. It then just happened again literally 5 minutes ago. There were 14 corner kicks and I had U11.5 for the game. Graded a winner.

The way I understand this to work is that it's actually a 3rd party that runs this book's live betting. Being that this is such an obscure market, it will probably go unnoticed. Now I'm not one to exploit anything like this, because I'm sure the time I go big on it, they're gonna free roll me. But hey! Free money. ?
 
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@Stuart UllmanYou are right - that is 30 seconds I'll never get back - so stop betting on them and be happy with your good fortune. For as much as I understand about soccer I have to ask... are you sure you bet on what you thought you bet on? 

Browns -3 :homer:  

Jets playing 3 games in 11 days; Tyrod has played the Jets 2x a year for a while now and has had reasonable success - and is familiar with them on a short week; Darnold has no idea who the eff the Browns are; Home team on these Thursday night deals seem to have an understated advantage in not having to travel; Jets secondary is beat up; CLE is playing good ball right now other than the kicker who they fired. 

GLTA
AB

Added CLE 1H - 1.5 - 120 

 
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Angry Beavers said:
@Stuart UllmanYou are right - that is 30 seconds I'll never get back - so stop betting on them and be happy with your good fortune. For as much as I understand about soccer I have to ask... are you sure you bet on what you thought you bet on? 
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You know, I'm not sure. Although, I do like the idea that I'm some kind of idiot savant on a bet I don't even know I'm making.  :lol:

 
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lumpy19 said:
Do you have an opinion on Duke Johnson tonight? I hate to believe anything that hue says but this seems like a good spot and they might actually use him tonight
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im staying away.. been fading him successfully last 2 weeks, and my numbers still have him as a slight fade, btu not worth it after the "coach speak"

 
I'm not seeing anything great to bet on tonight. Maybe Jets ML +155?

Would give me a chance to root for the ROTY. Hue Jackson is 1-32-1 with the Browns. This WOULD be the game they win. I mean, the Bears did just beat the Seahawks. Is it time to let go of old biases?

*scratches head*

 
Stuart Ullman said:
I'm not seeing anything great to bet on tonight. Maybe Jets ML +155?

Would give me a chance to root for the ROTY. Hue Jackson is 1-32-1 with the Browns. This WOULD be the game they win. I mean, the Bears did just beat the Seahawks. Is it time to let go of old biases?

*scratches head*
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Nah, side with Angry Beavers on this one.  I think Cleveland is the play here. 

 
NFL is AWFULLY WONGY this week. Not seeing much I like on sides except kind of Panthers -3,
but, Eagles/Texans/Chiefs/Rams/Pats.............all look pretty WONGY to me.

 
Angels / Athletics U28 HRE, -120

Late game last night followed by an early start today. Pitcher friendly park. Two pitchers with sub 4.0 ERAs.

A little afraid of home runs in this one, but if both starters can go 5 innings in this one, we should be good.

 
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