*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

[Angry Beavers]

Are the Saints getting a lot of public love too

my understanding is Pats and Chiefs getting the public love with the Packers to a lesser extent. That was last I read this morning. HTH. 

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Pretty bummed nobody in here predicted the resurgence of Tiger Woods as the best golfer on the planet.

Would have loved to have had some money on this feel good story. Might start blindly betting him and I don't know #### about golf.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Sounds like Pats are getting absolutely hammered in teasers, parlay's ML everything.  Going to be on Detroit big sadly :(

Already on Pays -6.6

 

[lumpy19]

Stop scoring Clemson

 

[lumpy19]

This is going to be a bad saturday

 

[Stuart Ullman]

The play is roualst yihrrs first inning no tum. But I'm out of johj dprrf date -130

Sorry, was driving.

Royals / Tigers no run first inning, -130

 

[Stuart Ullman]

That's what I get for trying handicap and drive.

 

[ChainsawU]

Chiefs getting the public love

Reuben Foster returns from two-game suspension for SF. Chiefs have to be the most overvalued team in the league right now.

 

[ChainsawU]

NFL is AWFULLY WONGY this week

Chiefs are gonna screw everyone.

Kansas City Chiefs DVOA after Week 2: No. 1 in offense, No. 1 in special teams... and No. 32 in defense.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Are the Saints getting a lot of public love too

like the saints tho.. falcons are banged up

 

[swirvenirvin]

This is going to be a bad saturday

stupid ga tech

 

[hagmania]

Miss State team total o32.5

Nick Fitzgerald ru yd ∞ push

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Seeing a few games with 100% chance of rain for the 7PM slate. Not much time, but am looking for crappy offenses in stormy conditions to gobble up some unders.

 

[hagmania]

Seeing a few games with 100% chance of rain for the 7PM slate. Not much time, but am looking for crappy offenses in stormy conditions to gobble up some unders.

UT-UF but everyone and their mother is expecting slop so idk.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

UT-UF but everyone and their mother is expecting slop so idk.

Took

1H - UNLV / Arkansas State U34, -110

100% chance of rain. 10MPH wind gusts. Game should stay on the ground, which should keep the clock moving. Easier for defenses to sell out against the run, too.

Was supposed to be high scoring. My guess is the weather dropped it from 35 points to 34. Fine by me.

 

[got_nugs]

UT-UF but everyone and their mother is expecting slop so idk.

That's the only way they can entice 80% of the jorts wearing Gator fan base to show up, offer slop.

 

[facook]

Sounds like Pats are getting absolutely hammered in teasers, parlay's ML everything.  Going to be on Detroit big sadly :(

Pats 14-3 ATS off a loss last 5 years.  If that dullard Patricia can figure out a way to beat Palpatine and Vader, they can have my money.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Campbell / Okolie / Joshua parlay, around -115, all on the same bill.  Matchroom's very careful with their matchmaking, we should be ok 

Easy pickins.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Pats 14-3 ATS off a loss last 5 years.  If that dullard Patricia can figure out a way to beat Palpatine and Vader, they can have my money.

thanks joe p 

 

[Stuart Ullman]

These kids look like they're having fun playing in the rain.

 

[regularguy]

This is going to be a bad saturday

make it stop already

 

[facook]

thanks joe p 

Joe ain’t always wrong.  

 

[LOCO]

stanford/oregon OVER 59

 

[Angry Beavers]

Joe ain’t always wrong.  

True. Which makes me cringe a little tomorrow evening.

#gametimecalloverhere

 

[modogg]

Chiefs are gonna screw everyone.

Chiefs have really been able to benefit from home field for the last few years, i would be worried about trusting SF in that game

 

[facook]

True. Which makes me cringe a little tomorrow evening.

#gametimecalloverhere

His play sheet is laminated.  His writing utensil of choice is a LEAD PENCIL.  This guy is a moran.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Congrats Texas Tech money linebackers

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Also nice to see army hanging with Oklahoma who apparently has a horrible defense. ####ers.

 

[facook]

Took

1H - UNLV / Arkansas State U34, -110

100% chance of rain. 10MPH wind gusts. Game should stay on the ground, which should keep the clock moving. Easier for defenses to sell out against the run, too.

Was supposed to be high scoring. My guess is the weather dropped it from 35 points to 34. Fine by me.

Nice call Em.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Nice call Em.

College kids playing in a rain storm. Oldest fade in the book.

Bet smarter, not harder!

 

[hagmania]

Miss State team total o32.5

Nick Fitzgerald ru yd ∞ push

To hell with this, let's go Cats!

 

[facook]

Are the Saints getting a lot of public love too

Well, I'm on them +3.  So yes. 

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Not my play but my close friend @hooter311 has been feeding me UFC / Boxing winners all day. He's currently 3-0.

Luis Henrique +110 (fight starts at 9:10PM ET)

 

[ChainsawU]

bout to go Iowa + over after they just got stopped on 4th down 0-0 in the 1Q

Iowa +3.5 -110
o34½ +100

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Wish there was more value on these late MLB games. Pass.

 

[The Ref]

This is going to be a bad saturday

 Not if you are a square who bet all the chalk

 

[hagmania]

2 out of 3 of these hot sauces are gon be p good. Should have stopped when I had 2 out of 3 winners too.

 

[hagmania]

Browning and Gaskin still play for the Huskies?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Arizona State beat Washington last year 13-7 at home. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Arizona State has a chance.

But you best believe Washington is looking for revenge and some home cooking.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

2 out of 3 of these hot sauces are gon be p good. Should have stopped when I had 2 out of 3 winners too.

Want me to PM you my address 

 

[facook]

 Not if you are a square who bet all the chalk

You say that like it is a bad thing.

 

[facook]

Browning and Gaskin still play for the Huskies?

8th year juniors.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

1H - San Diego State -6, -110

Nothing too sneaky going on here. Eastern Michigan flew across 3 time zones to play this game. I'm reading that San Diego State has a good chance to stop EMU's run game and force them to pass.

Line should probably be 6.5 or 7 but everybody is betting on the Washington game, so if you believe in GPJs CLM, this game is in theory more exploitable at this point.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

 Not if you are a square who bet all the chalk

:ripsupOKandLSUtickets:

 

[Frostillicus]

Benjamin (az st) o 53.5

Wilkins (az st) o 292.5

Gaskin (wash) o 97.5

Fuller (wash) o 6

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Benjamin (az st) o 53.5

Wilkins (az st) o 292.5

Gaskin (wash) o 97.5

Fuller (wash) o 6

Come crawling faster (faster)
Obey your master (master)
Your life burns faster (faster)
Obey your...

Master! Master!

 

[Zegras11]

All six games = first B12 conference matchup of the season L6 seasons.

Texas Tech +14½ -108

 

[hagmania]

Sawwwwwwwww

 

[hagmania]

Here (history of the database):

ARI vs CHI o38.5
OAK @ MIA o44.5
HOU vs NYG o43.5

And widening the net to just Under-Under to start the season, 54% O in the history of the database, but much higher (>=2010, 67.9%) percentage recently (>=2014, 70%):

DAL @ SEA o40.5
LAR vs LAC o48.5
WAS vs GB o45.5

Week 3 Home teams that started their first two games of the season Away are 26-51-4 (33.8%) ATS:

SF +7 @ KC
DAL +1.5 @ SEA
NYG +6 @ HOU

Home-Home-Away starts are 45-33-4 (57.7%) ATS. However, a much more promising trend in the past few years (2010, 17-11-0 O/U and 2014, 12-3-0 O/U) hints at the over in those games:

NO @ ATL o53.5
DEN @ BAL o46
GB @ WAS as above

Now that @Angry Beavers has pointed it out, if you're winless and start Over-Over, you trend Under in Week 3 (19-30-1 O/U, history of the database):

DET vs NE u54
BUF @ MIN u41
PIT @ TB u54

A team that plays its first divisional game in Week 3 is 46-68-5 (40.4%) ATS, and of late those games have been going over (2014, 16-5-2 O/U):

TEN +10 @ JAX o40

 

[jamil]

Oregon what is you doin baby