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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

Favorites on Thanksgiving are 27-11 (71.1%) against the spread since 2003 per Bet Labs. Teams favored by six or more points have gone 14-3 ATS.

This is a small sample but it follows a larger trend. On a short week, four days between games, favorites are 93-62-4 (60.0%) ATS since 2003.

The Thanksgiving holiday is the shortest week of preparation in the season with teams playing day games. The more talented and better coached teams (usual the favorite) have an advantage in these instances.

Betting the chalk on Thanksgiving not only works for the full game but for first-half and second-half bets, as well. Since 2005, first-half favorites have gone 24-12-2 ATS while second-half favorites are 26-11-1 ATS.

 
The Chiefs will be among the trendiest NFL dogs to ever walk the Earth. They're getting 77% of spread bets, that's pretty popular for a pooch! The record for a dog is 80 percent. Remember: the line was 2.5 in Mexico City with KC getting about two-thirds of spread bets at +2.5. After the venue changed, the game was taken off the board, bets were refunded and the percentages were wiped clean. Generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth two to three points, but apparently the market believes it's hardly worth jack in this game!
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swirvenirvin said:
Favorites on Thanksgiving are 27-11 (71.1%) against the spread since 2003 per Bet Labs. Teams favored by six or more points have gone 14-3 ATS.

This is a small sample but it follows a larger trend. On a short week, four days between games, favorites are 93-62-4 (60.0%) ATS since 2003.

The Thanksgiving holiday is the shortest week of preparation in the season with teams playing day games. The more talented and better coached teams (usual the favorite) have an advantage in these instances.

Betting the chalk on Thanksgiving not only works for the full game but for first-half and second-half bets, as well. Since 2005, first-half favorites have gone 24-12-2 ATS while second-half favorites are 26-11-1 ATS.
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So I'm being square thinking Chi on the road on 3 days rest after a SNF game are a good 1H fade in the early game, aren't I?  Dang it.

 
I think Rams' home field is not significant, but I think them losing Kupp is.  Makes them much less efficient in the passing game.  I'll take the Chiefs +3, and I think we get to 70. 

 
My cousins both bet the NFL. If one takes $100 on the over and the other takes $100 on an under/KC parlay is there a way a can keep these bets and guarantee I make money? 

 
Timmypg said:
My cousins both bet the NFL. If one takes $100 on the over and the other takes $100 on an under/KC parlay is there a way a can keep these bets and guarantee I make money? 
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Under/Rams 

no gaurentee though, but you could just hope the rams cover and game goes under

neither of those are happening though 

 
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Pretty proud of these 2 GOYs from July at this point (now both will lose by a lot):

7/19/18 8:23pm  Pending  11/23/18 12:00pm  College Props Football  133 Central Florida -4½ -110* vs South Florida 

7/3/18 6:26pm Pending 12/8/18 3:00pm  College Props Football  12295 Army +3½ -110* vs Navy 

 
facook said:
I think Rams' home field is not significant, but I think them losing Kupp is.  Makes them much less efficient in the passing game.  I'll take the Chiefs +3, and I think we get to 70. 
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Pretty inefficient, Rams. Also, 100.

 
Saw is probably just getting in from the club.... i just got done bathing the dog who decided at 230 am that it would be a perfect time to chase a skunk. The wife was less then amused. The dog wasnt amused either after a long ### tomato juice bath. If they were day bases and i wasnt busy as all heck at work i would be calling off....

Nice job @Frostillicus

:hifive:

 
In KC for the Hall of Fame Classic, good times, hit the Huskers/Missouri St. game last night and watched the MNF game in a bar in
the power and light district. Excited for tonights Texas Tech game. Happy Thanksgiving boys.

 
Tim Lester 12-4 SU as the fave and 0-7 SU as the dog. He also just fired his defensive coordinator after their three-game losing streak in which they allowed 152 points. Their three-game losing streak coincided with a season-injury to quarterback Jon Wassink. Before that injury they had won six straight games. NIU already clinched a trip to the MAC Championship Game, and lost a meaningless game to Miami (Ohio) in Week 12, but the situation is a little different on the Western Michigan sideline. After losing three in a row and needing a victory to improve their standing for a bowl trip, if Western Michigan loses this game against Northern Illinois Lester's team could be left out of the postseason once again.

 
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