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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (14 Viewers)

[465129] TOTAL o6½-120 (COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY) vrs COOPER KUPP (RECEPTIONS)(MUST PLAY))
[463139] TOTAL o66½+110 (JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[463137] TOTAL o½+140 (JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs JOE MIXON (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
[459066] TOTAL u31½-155 (T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs T.J. HOCKENSON (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[455093] TOTAL o69½-110 (MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs MARLON MACK (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[453085] TOTAL o17½-110 (DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DANIEL JONES (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469065] TOTAL o49½-110 (HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs HUNTER HENRY (RECEIVING YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469101] TOTAL o73½-135 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH YDS)(MUST PLAY))
[469097] TOTAL o½+115 (DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY) vrs DERRICK HENRY (RUSH TD)(MUST PLAY))
 

I probably should not play 8 overs and 1 under..... I really have a tough time playing unders with props because I feel like you are one busted play away from getting hosed - particularly on yardage totals. I play these for anywhere from .25 to .5 of what I usually play a side for, fwiw. 

 
don't forget - NFC East - Prime Time over for anyone looking for live action.... IIRC, bet the under, wait forthe first TD, bet the over in live wagering. These games start slow and then turn into shootouts. They seemed to do ok for a while a couple of years ago.....

 
Angry Beavers said:
don't forget - NFC East - Prime Time over for anyone looking for live action.... IIRC, bet the under, wait forthe first TD, bet the over in live wagering. These games start slow and then turn into shootouts. They seemed to do ok for a while a couple of years ago.....
Click to expand...
The last couple of years, pass on the pregame total, wait for live over.  I think.  At least I remember losing on the pregame under several times in a row.

 
I relied on this weather report from Rotoworld as the reason to start Jimmy G over Rivers or Cousins in fantasy this week:

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 PM ET): The undefeated 49ers hit the road against a disastrous Redskins team this week. 11 MPH winds are expected but won't be an issue unless it reaches 15 MPH or more. There is expected to be rain throughout the game, but nothing that should alter either team’s gameplans or impact passing. Unless wind speeds are dramatically higher than what’s projected, start all players from this one as normal.

:gunshot:

 
@ChainsawU hey man.  Can you help

build this so we can track it por favor ?

The @NYIslanders are 15-3-1 on the UNDER when coming off a game where they had 26 or less shots on goal.  Dates back to Jan 13 2019. 

9-1-1 On the UNDER when they won the 26 SOG or less game

 
facook said:
I relied on this weather report from Rotoworld as the reason to start Jimmy G over Rivers or Cousins in fantasy this week:

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 PM ET): The undefeated 49ers hit the road against a disastrous Redskins team this week. 11 MPH winds are expected but won't be an issue unless it reaches 15 MPH or more. There is expected to be rain throughout the game, but nothing that should alter either team’s gameplans or impact passing. Unless wind speeds are dramatically higher than what’s projected, start all players from this one as normal.

:gunshot:
Click to expand...
I go with Kevin Roth on Twitter

 
swirvenirvin said:
my jets projections are waaaaaaaaaay off of whats listed.. this should be fun watching the jets come out and pound the patriots and not have to pass
Click to expand...
Are you saying jets overs?

I have darnold u220.5, Robby u3.5& u51.5, leveon u37.5 rec & u59.5 rushing

 
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patriots have literally faced no one but ben who went for 27-47 276 and allen who got hurt but bills went for 22-42-280

other guys are complete bums 3rd string guys

 
lumpy19 said:
The world is ending, swirv is talking me into overs
Click to expand...
I feel like the numbers that are listed are still somewhat based off falk

last 5 losses or close games outside of week 17 where it was lame duck coach and no players his last stats 24/37 - 267 and he put up 28-41 175 vs what I think is just as good or better defense when he most likely still had mono.

I dunno im sure ill get ####ed on game flow, or maybe im dumb but i like darnold overs and bell and croweder receptions overs a lot

 
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I'm having such a terrible year I'm willing to be talked out of my position.

My thought with the leveon under yardage and darnold yardage is that new England is going to force short quick throws.  Gilmore takes out Robby and nyj has no one else to stretch the field.  The only other nyj player that can hurt you is Bell and I think new England gives him a lot of attention.

 
lumpy19 said:
I'm having such a terrible year I'm willing to be talked out of my position.

My thought with the leveon under yardage and darnold yardage is that new England is going to force short quick throws.  Gilmore takes out Robby and nyj has no one else to stretch the field.  The only other nyj player that can hurt you is Bell and I think new England gives him a lot of attention.
Click to expand...
oustide of week 1 dominating its been up and down for me too.  couple games here and there have been killers.

I think we have somewhat the same idea outside of darnold yards we were pretty much on the same stuff, you werent fading crowder or bell receptions and i wasnt going over on lev bell yards or robbie

 
swirvenirvin said:
I feel like the numbers that are listed are still somewhat based off falk

last 5 losses or close games outside of week 17 where it was lame duck coach and no players his last stats 24/37 - 267 and he put up 28-41 175 vs what I think is just as good or better defense when he most likely still had mono.

I dunno im sure ill get ####ed on game flow, or maybe im dumb but i like darnold overs and bell and croweder receptions overs a lot
Click to expand...
The problem is that 50% of the time Darnold is Falk.  All we have is a small sample but when he faces a solid pass D, he struggles.  He's gone over 220 against the Dolphins and a few games NY gets into the 20's, but sub-17 pt games (TT sub-17 tonight) and tough D's (Buf x2, Den, Min, Chi, NE) he's sucked.  He does seem to do better at home though.

 
swirvenirvin said:
patriots have literally faced no one
Click to expand...
Indeed. Sagarin still lists them #1 despite their 32nd-ranked SOS. Pats coming off the extra 3 days rest I think is gonna be huge for their game.

 
Ill tell you guys what - that 13.5 line for SMU Houston has to be based on Tune playing for Houston.  If he’s not and they send the coaches kid out there like they did vs U Conn SMU will beat them by 40.

Tust me - I watched my hard earned $$ go up in flames backing Houston this past week.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TheGooRoo said:
The problem is that 50% of the time Darnold is Falk.  All we have is a small sample but when he faces a solid pass D, he struggles.  He's gone over 220 against the Dolphins and a few games NY gets into the 20's, but sub-17 pt games (TT sub-17 tonight) and tough D's (Buf x2, Den, Min, Chi, NE) he's sucked.  He does seem to do better at home though.
Click to expand...
Plugging my nose and hoping we get a Josh McCown-like performance against NE like last years NE/NYJ game in NY.  Darnold o.

 
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Darnold has never lost and also covered the spread. He either wins straight up, covers the spread, and hits the over - or does none of that stuff. Since W8 of 2017 the Jets have covered 11 times (only the Broncos have covered fewer spreads during that time), with the over cashing 9 times with 2 pushes. If they score 24 and I think they win straight up.

 
Sagarin rank Jets 27th. I thought it'd be worse than that! That win last week went a long way. Relatively, Jeff got them worse than Atlanta but better than Giants, and for what it worth said they should be catching 13 or 14 points in this one. Yikes. And Pats been cashing public money going on like 4 years now too..

 
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