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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

man it feels weird looking at a computer screen again

Yo, is college football on? NFL tomorrow, but college is on too, huh? Man staring at a screen is making me dizzy already :loco:

 
yo I got plans with 3 chicks this weekend holla atcha boy. two of them was the love of my life's. I should try and find that third love of my life's I bet you a divorced secretary somewhere -110

 
I'll hit up 5d on the 24th probably :lol: I think I got like 3 bills in there from February. I haven't placed a bet since early February sonn.

 
Yo, so 5d murdered that guy. And now, less than a year later, when every book in the world is asking for deposits, they're asking you to withdraw. So they can enter the American market under different terms. Remember how they used to say buying weed supported terrorism. This #### reeks worse than that. But in the other direction. I bet 5d is some cartel #### now. Who asks customers to withdraw money in September. That's dumb, crazy fishy right there

 
ChainsawU said:
man it feels weird looking at a computer screen again

Yo, is college football on? NFL tomorrow, but college is on too, huh? Man staring at a screen is making me dizzy already :loco:
Click to expand...


ChainsawU said:
yo I got plans with 3 chicks this weekend holla atcha boy. two of them was the love of my life's. I should try and find that third love of my life's I bet you a divorced secretary somewhere -110
Click to expand...


ChainsawU said:
I'll hit up 5d on the 24th probably :lol: I think I got like 3 bills in there from February. I haven't placed a bet since early February sonn.
Click to expand...


ChainsawU said:
Who is this, Jesse James? What method are you trying to withdraw via, stagecoach?
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ChainsawU said:
Yo, so 5d murdered that guy. And now, less than a year later, when every book in the world is asking for deposits, they're asking you to withdraw. So they can enter the American market under different terms. Remember how they used to say buying weed supported terrorism. This #### reeks worse than that. But in the other direction. I bet 5d is some cartel #### now. Who asks customers to withdraw money in September. That's dumb, crazy fishy right there
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Can't really figure out why @TripItUp doesn't think those of us in this thread doesn't consider ourselves "Serious Handicappers."

 
Outright bets 2020/2021 :

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Everton to finish in Top Half

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal to finish in Top6

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea to finish in Top4

🇮🇹 Inter Milan to finish 1st or 2nd

🇮🇹 Ac Milan to finish in Top4

 
@facook So what's HFA now, zero? Also, how's Ralph doin'? How is his rotundity - let's be honest, that's just fun to say. You log into ETR lately? Silva's deal. Try and see because it should still be on. Cheers brother 🤜🤛 Get your full pads ready, amirite! :excited: You watch Hard Knocks this year?

 
ChainsawU said:
@facook So what's HFA now, zero? Also, how's Ralph doin'? How is his rotundity - let's be honest, that's just fun to say. You log into ETR lately? Silva's deal. Try and see because it should still be on. Cheers brother 🤜🤛 Get your full pads ready, amirite! :excited: You watch Hard Knocks this year?
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I think you gotta go like 1 just for travelling, but so hard to really know.  Dude, Ralph is SO rotund these days.  Love him.  Whattaya think of this one?  I'd love to bet it but I just can't go under for a the first few weeks.  Who knows what tackling will actually be like?

Ralph Michaels  @CalSportsLV

9h

A WOW  @Wagertalk  Did you Know for #MondayNightFB! . DYK that #SteelersNation is now: 1-19-1 O/U as an AF of 3 or more? . #HereWeGo - The ONLY over was by one point!

 
Kinda like this one too, from SDQL.  Some ugly pups in there though:

SDQL

NFL Week 1 betting system that cashes at a 75 percent clip. It's not a small sample size, either, as this system is 36-12 since the database was created in 2002.

The betting system applies to a whopping SIX games on the NFL Week 1 slate. Moreover, a related system that's gone a perfect 10-0 ATS applies to two of those six games. Read on to get both NFL Week 1 betting systems.

Here's the analysis from the SDQL Gurus:

In general, finding profitable betting opportunities involves uncovering differences in the public's perception of the strength and motivation of a team and the actual strength and motivation of that team.

Let's apply this general handicapping philosophy to Week 1 of the NFL. Our focus will be on divisional contests in which one team made the playoffs the previous season and the other did not. Certainly, we can expect the public to believe the team that made the playoffs is better than the team that did not make the playoffs.

Indeed, in Week 1 divisional contests between a playoff team and a non-playoff team from the previous season, the team that made the playoffs was laying an average of 3.6 points since the start of the 2002 season (as far back as our database goes).

Now let's consider motivation. A team that did not make the playoffs is supremely motivated to make a good showing in Week 1 -- especially vs. a divisional foe that made the playoffs. Similarly, a team that made the playoffs the previous season is less likely to be at their peak against a team that did not make the playoffs the previous season. Checking the actual results with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) reveals that:

In week one, a team that did NOT make the playoffs the previous season is 36-12 ATS since the start of the database at KillerSports.com (2002) vs. a divisional opponent that DID make the playoffs the previous season.

Moreover, these non-playoff teams are 24-23-1 straight up vs playoff teams!

This 75% system has had at least one active date each season over the past 18 years and it has never been under .500 in any season. Here is a link to the query output file for this system at KillerSports.com.

It is important to note that this is a Week 1 ONLY system. After Week 1, teams that did not make the playoffs have done poorly vs. a divisional opponent that did make the playoffs. In fact, these teams are at or below .500 ATS in every one of the weeks from 2 through 10. The motivation is primarily to start the season with a supreme effort. After that, reality sets in for the team that did not make the playoffs and the bettors have actual results from the current season to judge the quality of a team.

Over the last 18 seasons, This Week 1 system has never been active more than four times in any season. This season we get SIX opportunities to play this system. Here they are:

Jets +6 vs BILLS

Cardinals +7.5 vs 49ERS

Dolphins +6.5 vs PATRIOTS

Browns +9 at RAVENS

WASHINGTON +6.5 vs Eagles

Buccaneers +4 vs SAINTS

In each case, the Play-ON team is given first and the home team is in capital letters. These qualifying teams are getting a LOT of points. They will be motivated to start the season strong.

As always, a complete job of handicapping should be performed before making any play. This includes a careful consideration of the personnel and coaching changes a team has made from the previous season. That said, a six-team parlay would not be the worst bet ever made.

BONUS SECTION: We can "fine-tune" this system by furthering the idea that the playoff team from the previous season is not at its peak early in the season by adding the requirement that their next opponent is one that they beat by double digits the previous season. Doing so produces a 10-0 ATS record in database history.

This season, two of the six games qualify. The Jets are visiting the Bills. The Jets did not make the playoffs last season and the Bills did. Further, Buffalo has the Dolphins in Week 2 this season – a team the Bills beat 37-20 in their previous match-up. The second qualifying team for this tweak is the Browns. The Browns did not make the playoffs last season and the Ravens did. Further, Baltimore has the Texans in Week 2 this season – a team the Ravens beat 41-7 last season.

 
ChainsawU said:
@facook  You log into ETR lately? Silva's deal. Try and see because it should still be on. You watch Hard Knocks this year?
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Yeah, I've logged on with gratitude in my heart.  Rode Silva's 150 to what I hope is a championship team in my one big $ ff league I'm still in.  We'll see.  We use cbs, and they send draft grades out to each team.  I got an "A", second best points/week prediction.  The dumb thing is they predict I will score @ 3 points/week more than the "D" team which got the worst grade.  What a dumb game.  But yeah I love that site.

No Hard Knocks.  No more hbo for us.

 
facook said:
I think you gotta go like 1 just for travelling, but so hard to really know.  Dude, Ralph is SO rotund these days.  Love him.  Whattaya think of this one?  I'd love to bet it but I just can't go under for a the first few weeks.  Who knows what tackling will actually be like?

Ralph Michaels  @CalSportsLV

9h

A WOW  @Wagertalk  Did you Know for #MondayNightFB! . DYK that #SteelersNation is now: 1-19-1 O/U as an AF of 3 or more? . #HereWeGo - The ONLY over was by one point!
Click to expand...
The way offenses will not need to deal with crowd noise.......... I wonder if we don't see a rapant league wide case of "last team to have the ball wins!" 

 
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Angry Beavers said:
The way offenses will not need to deal with crowd noise.......... I wonder if we don't see a rapant league wide case of "last team to have the ball wins!" 
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I read on twitter today that the Cards are practicing with the piped-in crowd noise that each stadium will have.  Apparently it's not allowed to be over 70 db?  If that's true, that's like what I listen to podcasts on.  Absolutely no impact other than maybe quieting the qb signals a bit.

 
facook said:
I think you gotta go like 1 just for travelling, but so hard to really know.  Dude, Ralph is SO rotund these days.  Love him.  Whattaya think of this one?  I'd love to bet it but I just can't go under for a the first few weeks.  Who knows what tackling will actually be like?

Ralph Michaels  @CalSportsLV

9h

A WOW  @Wagertalk  Did you Know for #MondayNightFB! . DYK that #SteelersNation is now: 1-19-1 O/U as an AF of 3 or more? . #HereWeGo - The ONLY over was by one point!
Click to expand...
Steelers and Mike Tomlin are (24-5) Full Game Under as a Road Favorite the last 6 years.  DANG IT.

 
lumpy19 said:
Duke or David? 3.5 seems high for Duke
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uh oh. Really hope i bet it on David Johnson. Agree if it is Duke it is not a great play. but i think david J will get bulk of carries, and KC is one of the weakest teams defending RB catches (at least they were last year, and they didn't see to add any personnel to change it). betting week 1 is true gambling

ETA: out of practice, never hit submit :brush: . was/is David though

 
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