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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (17 Viewers)

facook said:
Tailing.  You betting the Clips + then?  I lean Hawks, simply because I think Embiid might legit be hurt.  Thoughts on that?
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If I win this bet, I'll either bet some MLB or tuck my tail between my legs. Nothing excites me less than betting on the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard, lol. There's no precedent to go off of and it's going to be a crapshoot.

From a market standpoint, there's a lot of money for Vegas to make by:

1.) The Jazz not covering the 7.5 (squarest pick of the day, imo).
2.) Jazz ML-300 losing outright, as the last game in the night there are going to be countless parlays where that's the last leg.

But after being on the right side of last night's #### show, if the gambling god's allow me to pull another $200 real quick, I'll gladly watch the late game instead of betting on it. I think the Clippers plus the points is a great bet, mainly because you could have easily made the Jazz 9 to 12 point favorites and I don't think the gambling market flinches.

They're almost discouraging action on that side (which is usually indicative). But we'll see, I just don't fancy betting on this type of game.


ETA: I think @Courtjester's lean of Q1 - Jazz -3 is a great way to get action on that game.

 
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81% of the money at Sportsbook.ag was on the Jazz spread last night.
 

Vegas just can't help themselves, can they? :lol:

I've seen a few new lurkers to the thread recently and if you have any tepid interest in gambling, the most important thing I can tell you is to treat this more as a "market" than a "game of skill". Remember where you live, the United States of America.

This is 2021. The cat is out of the bag. The players all know the lines of the games they are playing in. Sometimes when you see something "supernatural" happening, it's because Team X knows the spread and want to "beat the line". Even at an individual level.

Is it "really" rigged? Most likely, but also a lot of what we see is probably manifested. Assuming the players and the coaches both know the lines (or are subconciously aware of it). Either way, we all know that Vegas operates at a profit, so if we can be tactile about where the money is going and leverage spots we like with positive outcomes for Vegas, we can stay +EV.

 
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It'll be too late for you guys but I'm on:

[Jun-17-2021] [MU] - [5902] TOTAL u23½-115 (H-R-E ARI/SFO vrs H-R-E ARI/SFO.)

ETA: I lied. It starts in 5 minutes. You have a very small window.

ETA2: $219 Bet Slip

 
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Shaq90 said:
Nets / Bucks O220, -110

If any of the usual suspects are interested in tailing. I've got about $800 risked between both books. I'll probably take a break for a few days if I hit this...

Bet Slip 1 ($500)
Bet Slip 2 ($300)

@facook
@Angry Beavers
@Courtjester
@hooter311
@ChainsawU
@swirvenirvin
@The Ref
@greedygoat
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Bet doesn't count. First they start 0-8 from three in Q1 and then 1-7 from three in Q3?

Fake game. Doesn't count. They are missing on purpose so the under will hit. Rigged.

I'm not counting it. Fake basketball.

 
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Shaq90 said:
You expect me to believe the Nets and Bucks can't combine for 40 points in a quarter? :lol:

Totally fake. Bet doesn't count.
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Is this the reverse jinks coming into play. You still have a chance with a big 4th and maybe you get overtime. It only doesn’t count for those that didn’t bet it. I’m pulling for you. Hope it’s 221 or more. Good luck. 

 
dallas428 said:
Is this the reverse jinks coming into play. You still have a chance with a big 4th and maybe you get overtime. It only doesn’t count for those that didn’t bet it. I’m pulling for you. Hope it’s 221 or more. Good luck. 
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Nah, it's dead. I'm just fairly disappointed to see both teams start 0-8 from three to start the game. It's a 40% shot. At worst they should have been 2-8

As of right now, they are 14-53 from three for 26%. Clearly faked. 60% of the money was on the over and I rode with the public again.

They're just out here stealing money. Appreciate your optimism though but I'm convinced this was a rig job to get us into a Game 7 on Father's Day. Nets were not allowed to be competitive, you feel me?

 
dallas428 said:
I don’t feel you on the opinion it’s rigged. I still root for you. You’ll bounce back. Take a break and regroup.
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It's fine. It's been a good week. I just don't want to get in the mindset that I have to get all this money back at once.

If I jump back into it tomorrow, I'm going to be chasing today's figures instead of betting independently. Appreciate the kind words. :)

 
dallas428 said:
Is this the reverse jinks coming into play. You still have a chance with a big 4th and maybe you get overtime. It only doesn’t count for those that didn’t bet it. I’m pulling for you. Hope it’s 221 or more. Good luck. 
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What Em means is "fake bet" for anyone who followed along but didn't lose $225 on the bet, like he did.  So, you know, it's cool.  As long as you didn't lose $225.

 
facook said:
What Em means is "fake bet" for anyone who followed along but didn't lose $225 on the bet, like he did.  So, you know, it's cool.  As long as you didn't lose $225.
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I lost $800. The bet was fake because the edict was in from the NBA for a Game 7.

 
It's not the worst thing in the world. I raked $600 on KBO and the 2H unders from last night.

Maybe like down $400 from this time yesterday. Big swing. Just gotta play cool until the manic feeling goes away.

 
Shaq90 said:
It's not the worst thing in the world. I raked $600 on KBO and the 2H unders from last night.

Maybe like down $400 from this time yesterday. Big swing. Just gotta play cool until the manic feeling goes away.
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Gamblers that are not emotional are pro.  We are working to get there.  Appreciate you homie.

 
Time to take a break--I haven't posted a winner in ages...... :(

Going to my first casino in a decade tomorrow--so that should be fun.

 
Shaq90 said:
Bet doesn't count. First they start 0-8 from three in Q1 and then 1-7 from three in Q3?

Fake game. Doesn't count. They are missing on purpose so the under will hit. Rigged.

I'm not counting it. Fake basketball.
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:lmao:    How does this work?  You call your guy and say - that doesn't count cause they are missing on purpose?  I did not take this as I was out BUT in the future I am trying to develop a strategy to get out of my losers that would help my long run returns.. TIA! 

ETA - not trying to be a jerk - all in good fun - just struck my funny bone

 
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Ok used an MGM parlay boost on this

England -350 / Yankees -145 / Hawks-76ers o221.5 / Angels -200

pays +570

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
I have a 50% profit boost for nba tonight

I haven’t watched 5 minutes of nba since Jordan played

@Shaq90
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Just when I try to get out, they drag me back in!!

I hate to go down as the stooge who circles the over and #####es when defense is played, but I think @Dan Lambskin has it figured out with O221 in 76ers / Hawks.

I can give you a laundry list of reasons the over should hit, but I'm also bullish on 76ers spread (and alt spread).

The 76ers cannot lose this series. The legacies or Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons are on the line tonight.

I'll let you know when I 100% have a bet in. But if I die in a car wreck, bet some combination of the over and blame Lambskin if it loses. 

:lol:

 
In on Over 223 thread bet of death.

Also on Philly ML, mostly because the biggest mush I know (in real life) ((yes, bigger mush than me)) is on Atl ML.

 
I think we're in a good place here. I tilted another $275 on 2H O108.

I think game is rigged for OT and we cash all tickets. Putting my faith in you Dlamb.

 
3 teamer

$96 wins $766, all late starts

[Jun-18-2021] [MLB] - [960] TOTAL u9½-120 (LA DODGERS vrs ARI D`BACKS)

[Jun-18-2021] [MLB] - [961] PHI PHILLIES +130

[Jun-18-2021] [MLB] - [964] TOTAL u8½+105 (CIN REDS vrs SDG PADRES)

Bet Slip

 
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