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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

Boosted prop parlay on DK

Harris,Cook and Taylor anytime TD at +1300

NHL parlay

Bruins, Edm and over 5.5

Super boost special on FD

Colts(-2.5)Bills(-5.5)TB(-2.5)

Good luck all

 
It seems I just curse myself when I post in here, but I can't  understand why the line isn't higher tonight for LA. I know they had a bad showing last time out, but to me this line should be -5.5 or closer to -7. 

 
ADDING MNF:

1H - RAMS / 49ERS U24, -105

Rams lose Robert Woods and I don't think there's going to be this seamless transition and doubt that ODB knows the offense or will see half as many snaps as people think he will. Practice, practice, practice. I'm leaning 49ers ML but with so much NBA on, I don't have to get too invested in the game.

 
NBA best bet parlay  +148

Pacers(-7)

Heat ML

NCAA  WTF mega parlay  +2445

Mich ST (-2.5)

Miss St (-15)

Vanderbilt(-5.5)

Baylor(-33)😲

Arkansas(-1.5)

 
chopped off the big feeder roots. gonna attach some bolts and a chain. try and use a floor jack to pull it up. block of wood, jack pad, all that good stuff

 
ChainsawU said:
chopped off the big feeder roots. gonna attach some bolts and a chain. try and use a floor jack to pull it up. block of wood, jack pad, all that good stuff
Click to expand...
if you are going to pull it out with a chain and a truck, whatever you do, do not videotape it because if it goes south it would not be great for the rest of us to watch it.. at your expense of course in the most brotherly lovingly way possible. 

 
TNF Leans

Falcons ML, +265

Falcons +7.5, -120

1H - Falcons / Patriots O23.5, -110

Alternative O54.5, +200

Largest Lead of Game U16.5, -130 (BUNKER BUSTER!!!)

Mac Jones to throw INT, Yes, +120

Matt Ryan to throw INT, No, +150

Mac Jones longest completion U35.5, -115 (BUNKER BUSTER!!!)

Matt Ryan O22.5 completions, -110

Mac Jones O22.5 completions, -110

Mac Jones U251.5 passing, -110 (BUNKER BUSTER!!!)

Jakobi Meyers O54.5 receiving, -105

Kyle Pitts O62.5 receiving, -115

Matt Ryan U3.5 rushing, -110 (BUNKER BUSTER!!!)

Kyle Pitts O5.5 receptions, +140

Hunter Henry O3.5 receptions, EVEN

Patriots by 1-3, +500 (.25 unit)

Patriots by 4-6, +725 (.25 unit)

Falcons by 1-3, +1150 (.25 unit)

Falcons by 4-6, +1700 (.25 unit)

M Davis first TD, +1200 (.5 unit)

H Henry first TD, +900 (.5 unit)

K Pitts first TD, +1100 (.5 unit)

N Agholor first TD, +1400 (.5 unit)

Russell Gage anytime TD, +333

43-49 points scored, +375 (.333 unit)

50-56 point scored, +425 (.333 unit)

57-63 points scored, +600 (.333 unit)

 
I'm a big sports psychology guy. Matt Ryan is facing the team that ruined his career when his team gave up a 28-3 comeback in the Super Bowl.

Matt Ryan hasn't forgotten and in primetime in the Twilight hours of his career, he gets revenge against the boogeyman Patriots lead by a Rookie.

Falcons win and cover.

 
I just spent the better part of the last 2 hours defending my TNF picks to a bunch of idiots on Facebook for "only" winning 5 units. :lol:


Apparently I'm an idiot for "hitting under 50%". Apparently they don't understand you can hit way less than that when you're hitting plus money bangers like NELSON AGHOLOR FIRST TOUCHDOWN, +1400!!

 
So of course I hit 6/8 bets (+30 units) when I dont post my picks,lol. Back to posting losers.

NCAA Mens BB Teaser +5 (+180)

George Mason +2.5  Georgia +8.5  CSU Fullerton +11.5

Kentucky  -12 (-110)

NHL Parlay (+234)

Avs Jets

 
TheGreatOne said:
I just spent the better part of the last 2 hours defending my TNF picks to a bunch of idiots on Facebook for "only" winning 5 units. :lol:


Apparently I'm an idiot for "hitting under 50%". Apparently they don't understand you can hit way less than that when you're hitting plus money bangers like NELSON AGHOLOR FIRST TOUCHDOWN, +1400!!
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Sounds like a wasted two hours but I think that is the point of Facebook.

 
TheGreatOne said:
I just spent the better part of the last 2 hours defending my TNF picks to a bunch of idiots on Facebook for "only" winning 5 units. :lol:


Apparently I'm an idiot for "hitting under 50%". Apparently they don't understand you can hit way less than that when you're hitting plus money bangers like NELSON AGHOLOR FIRST TOUCHDOWN, +1400!!
Click to expand...
Yeah, just stay off FB--nothing but toxicity there.

For what it is worth, I appreciate your efforts with your picks.

I have hit a really rough patch here. I mean I can't believe I lost the DEN/PHIL game last night. That seemed like a no brainer to bet on. 

I need to start setting my picks and then before placing them, just do the opposite of everything I was about to do. 

 
facook said:
facook said:
On 10/24/2021 at 8:54 PM, facook said:
On 10/24/2021 at 4:46 PM, facook said:
The world's biggest mush (not me, a DIFFERENT huge mush) announced he was playing this same angle Friday.  I'm tempted to go 2X over 41 and pray for a nice middle.  :mellow:
Click to expand...


Seriously this guy....I will post his play to fade each Friday.  It's unbelievable.
Expand  
Click to expand...


Just found out he was on AZ -6.5 last night.  Grrr...

He is on Cincinnati -10.5 Sunday.  Would really have to hold my nose to take Mike White and the Jets, so may just stay away.


Expand  
Click to expand...


This dude did not have a play for Sunday, but I am FURIOUS I missed that he played Najee Harris over 82.5 yards last night.  Grrrrr.....
Click to expand...


He is on Detroit/Clev under Sunday.  I bet under 44 earlier this week before I heard this. Going to wait for it to bottom out @ 42ish and then double down on the over.  You would not believe how bad of a streak he is on if I told you.

 
I like that Det under also, but the ship has sailed on that total.  I did see an interesting stat that Cle avgs 28 pts with Chubb playing and 13 when he's out.

Most of my eggs are in the Sparty 1H +10.5 and ML.  

 
The_Man said:
Anyone else noticed that road underdogs are 24-10 ATS over the last 4 weeks in the NFL?
Click to expand...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/11/17/nfl-picks-odds-week-11-underdogs-favorites/

Underdogs have been the talk of the NFL betting world for the past few weeks. As a group, 'dogs this season are 85-61-1 against the spread (.582), their best cover rate through Week 10 since 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. Even underdogs of seven or more points are covering at a fantastic rate (25-21-1, .543), numbers not seen since 2015. This trend should even out eventually, perhaps starting as soon as this week.

Just look at the past. For example, in 2019, underdogs covered 58 percent of the time from Weeks 1 through 10 and then just 48 percent of the time for the rest of the regular season. In 2002, underdogs covered 57 percent of the time through the first 10 weeks only to cover less than half the time the rest of the way. In 2012, underdogs dropped from 57 to 45 percent over those spans. And in 2010, they went from covering in 56 percent of contests through Week 10 to just 46 percent of the time from Weeks 11 to 16.

 
We are now at the halfway point of the football season. I check futures before the start of the season and I thought the halfway point was a good time to check the futures markets and see where there is some buying going on. Now that sharps see actual performance, how do they adjust?

First let’s start with division odds. The only wager seeing mid-season sharp action is Buffalo -135 to win the AFC East. It’s really one of the few divisions without a clear leader and thereby the price isn’t all juiced up on one team. I would consider the buy on Buffalo as MEDIUM.

While we are in the AFC, let’s look at the AFC Championship odds. This is a market seeing some action. The Titans at +750, Chargers at +1200 and even Cincinnati at +2500 are getting buys. The buy on Cincy is small, but the buy on the Titans is small/medium and the buy on the LA Chargers is right on the edge of what I would consider a large buy. The action has hit the Chargers the past two weeks. I took a little pizza action today on the Chargers when I saw this market.

Let’s go over to the NFC next. The NFC Championship market is pretty boring. We have only one team seeing any sort of material sharp buy and it is a medium buy on the LA Rams +425. After that, there’s very little going on.

There’s nothing in the NFC with regard to divisional action, so let’s go right to the Super Bowl now. For the Super Bowl there are three teams seeing what I would consider material sharp buys. You have a medium sharp buy on Buffalo +850, a medium sharp buy on Dallas +1000 and a small sharp buy on the LA Chargers +2500. Nice price on the Chargers…question is whether they have any real chance…but like I said, I did take some pizza on them for the Super Bowl and AFC Championship to have some action it.

Over in NCAAF, the action is a little more spread out with almost everyone in the Top 10 getting some sort of buy, so let’s concentrate on those getting a medium or better buy. When you narrow it down that way you only have a rather large buy over the last two weeks on Ohio St +300. Otherwise it’s all nibbling small action.

All in all, nothing overly exciting, but a few interesting tidbits. I hope the information above helps you with your futures planning for the conclusion of the 2021-22 NFL & NCAAF seasons!

 
Longstory short, I'm an accountant and now that tax season is getting closer I am working multiple jobs and the paychecks from said jobs are starting to pour in. I got a nice little Holiday weekend coming up...


Are you thinking what I'm thinking? 😏

 
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