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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 19-5-2 (79.2%) against the spread this season. Vegas is doing their job well because all this team does is cover their number and nobody wants to bet on them.

When you only lose against the spread in 5 of 24 games, do you know how many spreads in a row the Cavaliers have covered? Even in a martingale situation, if the Cavaliers didn't cover 2 games in a row that game you 3 losses spread across 21 remaining games and if they didn't cover 2 games in a row that would give you 1 loss in 19 remaining games.

So essentially, the Cavaliers have covered the spread 10+ in a row multiple times and nobody is talking about it because it's Cleveland.

ETA

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TheGreatOne said:
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 19-5-2 (79.2%) against the spread this season. Vegas is doing their job well because all this team does is cover their number and nobody wants to bet on them.

When you only lose against the spread in 5 of 24 games, do you know how many spreads in a row the Cavaliers have covered? Even in a martingale situation, if the Cavaliers didn't cover 2 games in a row that game you 3 losses spread across 21 remaining games and if they didn't cover 2 games in a row that would give you 1 loss in 19 remaining games.

So essentially, the Cavaliers have covered the spread 10+ in a row multiple times and nobody is talking about it because it's Cleveland.

ETA

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/
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Clev ML was niiiiiiice and easy tonight.

 
Portland Timbers vs New York for the MLS Championship

Under 2.5 goals -140

Currently in Portland the weather is high wind and rain. Might improve a bit by the 3pm est kickoff. Not ideal conditions for a high scoring game. Both teams probably start cautious as this is a championship game. I think the only way this loses is if a couple sloppy goals go in. Go Timbers!!!  

 
tonydead said:
Monster card tonight @hooter311
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I'll write something up now.  Off the top of my head nothing I'm super confident in besides Poirier.  Think it gets off to a slow start with a lengthy feeling out process until Dustin slowly wears him down for the finish in rounds 2,3, or 4.

Still think olivera has made his current run on opportunity more than talent.  He's definitely top 5, but I just don't see him ever being able to hang in the pocket with poirier or gaethje.  Chandler blew his load too fast and walked into his own demise.

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
Portland Timbers vs New York for the MLS Championship

Under 2.5 goals -140

Currently in Portland the weather is high wind and rain. Might improve a bit by the 3pm est kickoff. Not ideal conditions for a high scoring game. Both teams probably start cautious as this is a championship game. I think the only way this loses is if a couple sloppy goals go in. Go Timbers!!!  
Click to expand...
#RCTID

 
hooter311 said:
I didn't check the lines until after I posted...fully expected Poirier to be -270.  At -135 I'm all in.

5* poirier -135
Click to expand...
I used a $25 fee bet on Poirier -140 

I also had a parlay boost that I put on Nunes/Hall/Silva at +140

I was just using some of the "experts" opinions on that parlay. 

 
leftcoastguy7 said:
Portland Timbers vs New York for the MLS Championship

Under 2.5 goals -140

Currently in Portland the weather is high wind and rain. Might improve a bit by the 3pm est kickoff. Not ideal conditions for a high scoring game. Both teams probably start cautious as this is a championship game. I think the only way this loses is if a couple sloppy goals go in. Go Timbers!!!  
Click to expand...
:jawdrop: :eek: :clap:

 
Courtjester said:
I used a $25 fee bet on Poirier -140 

I also had a parlay boost that I put on Nunes/Hall/Silva at +140

I was just using some of the "experts" opinions on that parlay. 
Click to expand...
Something was eating at me with this parlay--so I cashed out after the 2nd win---thank goodness!!!  Not a big payday, but better than a total zero

 
hooter311 said:
I'll write something up now.  Off the top of my head nothing I'm super confident in besides Poirier.  Think it gets off to a slow start with a lengthy feeling out process until Dustin slowly wears him down for the finish in rounds 2,3, or 4.

Still think olivera has made his current run on opportunity more than talent.  He's definitely top 5, but I just don't see him ever being able to hang in the pocket with poirier or gaethje.  Chandler blew his load too fast and walked into his own demise.
Click to expand...
Dustin blew too early too.  Admits he wasnt supposed to do that in the after fight interview.  Gaethje up next.  

 
Well yo it could be worse. At least you didn't let a woman get you drunk and talk you into going down on her and then you almost barfed.

Imagine when you smell a carcass. Like in a dream or something hypothetical. But then you keep licking  the carcass and it's right about to **** so you just strengthen your resolve and try not to think about it. But then you realize it's not a dream so you come up for air and try not to let her see you gagging. But gagging is a primal, gut reaction and you end up burping corona seltzer really loud all over her barry manilow's.

 
Looking to use my $222 free bet from TNF.... Considering a 2 team teaser. 

Which 2 of these 3 plays do you guys like best? 

GBP -4.5 vs CHI
TEN -1.5 vs JAX
DEN -5 vs DET
 

Or should I just make a futures play? 😂

I've already got stacks on NEP and TB for division, conference, and bowl. 

 
[icon] said:
Looking to use my $222 free bet from TNF.... Considering a 2 team teaser. 

Which 2 of these 3 plays do you guys like best? 

GBP -4.5 vs CHI
TEN -1.5 vs JAX
DEN -5 vs DET
 

Or should I just make a futures play? 😂

I've already got stacks on NEP and TB for division, conference, and bowl. 
Click to expand...


TEN and DEN and DONE.

 
ChainsawU said:
Well yo it could be worse. At least you didn't let a woman get you drunk and talk you into going down on her and then you almost barfed.

Imagine when you smell a carcass. Like in a dream or something hypothetical. But then you keep licking  the carcass and it's right about to **** so you just strengthen your resolve and try not to think about it. But then you realize it's not a dream so you come up for air and try not to let her see you gagging. But gagging is a primal, gut reaction and you end up burping corona seltzer really loud all over her barry manilow's.
Click to expand...
How do you tell a lady friend she needs to pay more attention to that region in her hygiene?  Asking for a friend. 

Rams ML and Spread this evening. 

 
Pivoting away from filthy VeeJays for a bit:

Betonline has a 12 Days of Betting special or something starting tonight.  If you opt in, bet on which team makes longest FG (I chose AZ) and if the longest FG is over 46.5 yards they'll double all winning bets.

Also at BOL: total accepted penalties (NFL Game Props) over 11.

@RickGosselin9

Best of luck to the Rams & Cardinals tonight. They have drawn the Carl Cheffers officiating crew for their game. This crew has assessed the most penalties of the NFL’s 17 crews this season slapping Buffalo, Las Vegas, Minnesota & Tennessee all with 100 yards in penalties in games

 
1st Bowl Games Note Of The Year: Military schools are 37-14 ATS since 1980.  Army -3.5 and Air Force +2 would apply

 
facook said:
Pivoting away from filthy VeeJays for a bit:

Betonline has a 12 Days of Betting special or something starting tonight.  If you opt in, bet on which team makes longest FG (I chose AZ) and if the longest FG is over 46.5 yards they'll double all winning bets.
Click to expand...


Prater from 53 on the first drive.  Hope Gay can't beat that.

 
facook said:
Pivoting away from filthy VeeJays for a bit:

Betonline has a 12 Days of Betting special or something starting tonight.  If you opt in, bet on which team makes longest FG (I chose AZ) and if the longest FG is over 46.5 yards they'll double all winning bets.

Also at BOL: total accepted penalties (NFL Game Props) over 11.

@RickGosselin9

Best of luck to the Rams & Cardinals tonight. They have drawn the Carl Cheffers officiating crew for their game. This crew has assessed the most penalties of the NFL’s 17 crews this season slapping Buffalo, Las Vegas, Minnesota & Tennessee all with 100 yards in penalties in games
Click to expand...
They definitely seem to enjoy throwing flags.

 
eoMMan said:
4 hours ago, facook said:
Pivoting away from filthy VeeJays for a bit:

Also at BOL: total accepted penalties (NFL Game Props) over 11.

@RickGosselin9

Best of luck to the Rams & Cardinals tonight. They have drawn the Carl Cheffers officiating crew for their game. This crew has assessed the most penalties of the NFL’s 17 crews this season slapping Buffalo, Las Vegas, Minnesota & Tennessee all with 100 yards in penalties in games
Expand  
Click to expand...
They definitely seem to enjoy throwing flags.
Click to expand...


Never a doubt!

 
Have been crushing it with the legal books lately. This week I'm up ~$1k on a 1.5k bankroll, largely thanks to promos. 

Hit two "Risk Free $25 First TD bets" on MGM. Harris on MNF, then OBJ last night. Both were $25 to pay $250. Two "Same Game Parlay" plays and a hit on the $222 bonus from Caesars Rushing Yards Promo on MIN v PIT all rolled up. 

Gotta say, the bonuses, odds boosts, promos, and free bets seem to make these sites +EV if you play them right. 

 
[icon] said:
Have been crushing it with the legal books lately. This week I'm up ~$1k on a 1.5k bankroll, largely thanks to promos. 

Hit two "Risk Free $25 First TD bets" on MGM. Harris on MNF, then OBJ last night. Both were $25 to pay $250. Two "Same Game Parlay" plays and a hit on the $222 bonus from Caesars Rushing Yards Promo on MIN v PIT all rolled up. 

Gotta say, the bonuses, odds boosts, promos, and free bets seem to make these sites +EV if you play them right. 
Click to expand...
Nice job!!!!

 
Anyone ever think it's weird the sportsbooks across the globe never disagree about the outcome of these games? Even though experts disagree all the time, there is always unanimous agreement on every game for every sport.

Almost as if these lines come from some kind of "source" that cannot be disputed. A source so good that nobody ever talks about. Things that make you go, "hrm". 🤔

 
TheGreatOne said:
Anyone ever think it's weird the sportsbooks across the globe never disagree about the outcome of these games? Even though experts disagree all the time, there is always unanimous agreement on every game for every sport.

Almost as if these lines come from some kind of "source" that cannot be disputed. A source so good that nobody ever talks about. Things that make you go, "hrm". 🤔
Click to expand...


I'm lower not-so-elite tier on this stuff, but my understanding is there are a couple primary books that set lines initially... then other books use those lines as a basis point and adjust ever so slightly based on action and their own perception of their clients. 

So you're kinda not wrong in that regard.... to my understanding. 

With props when "collabing" with GooRoo many moons ago on props.. it definitely was the case where some books would release prop lines, they'd get hammered and sharpen up, then other books would hang the refined numbers. 

 
Stupid $25 Risk Free Same Game Parlay in Caesars tonight (+590):

CEH Rushing O56.5 / Herbert o1.5 Pass TD / Hill Anytime TD / O39.5 / KC -1.5

 
I'm also on:

Chiefs ML -180 / UNDER 54.5, +175 for $100
Chiefs ML -180 / Knicks ML -200, +125 for $200
Tyreek Hill O79.5 receiving, -110 for $200

 
My rationale that the only way you can beat the Chiefs is if you possess the ball and sit in a cover 2 shell and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chargers aren't built to do that.

To beat the Chiefs, Herbert will have to beat Mahomes in a shootout. Which, I don't see happening. If the Chiefs had a RB, I'd be concerned. But Ekeler ain't grinding the game away. Especially the way this Chiefs team has been playing.

Also, if you look at the standings this game is for first place. If the Chargers win, they are tied for first. If the Chiefs win, they push Chargers down two games. This is why I like the under. It should be a chippy divisional game with high stakes. I expect Kelce and Hill to be featured heavily. The stars will come out to play when there is something to play for.

This might as well be a playoff game.

 
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