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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

rules bro. any profit rules this **** is hard. bro i didn't even watch last night because I ko'd at 8pm.. dude in the vape shop, I helped him fix his car last time (hood latch) and this time he gave me this chocolate bar with mad honey in it or something and i ate one square and bro it was nuts. I watched harland williams podcast with andrew santino and laughed harder than i ever had in my life. kind of hungover from it though. i don't even drink anymore i dont like it. pretty sure I'll be throwing the rest in the trash. can't decide
 
looking at NIU stuff and their conference play on Wednesdays since 2019 with this coach Hammock. sounds like baseball when you say how does this team do on wednesdays but its all just in this week 10-11-12 window and with days of rest, etc.. wmich coming off bye etc. so far i got this in so far $19 to win $31 (+163) and am probably gonna zoom in and play more on wmich team total and moneyline later

parlay wmich +6.5/over 51.5 +163

the over is definitely real i just gotta figure out how many i think wmich is gonna score im thinking 37
 
wmich +125 bewst
wmich o30.5 +172
wmich o36.5 +400

L2 seasons Mac play wmich 7-5 su and 9-3 ou
when they score more than 21 pts 9-0 ou
34+ points in all seven wins (they did cover the spread in one game scoring 31)

it helps that NIU is kinda public rn. they're like 90% of moneyline wagers. since 2019 the hammock coach career pickem or less 14-16 su and 9-21 ats laying points. on the other side as the dog catching points 22-11-2 ats. that's kinda why I'm fading them

also wmich 2 weeks to prepare. against that hammock guy that situation 5-1 su and ats 35 ppg avg final score 35-25. there's a reason the total is high and some actual market support for the under too which is good it's not just all over bets

also bro I'm not spending a fortune cuz obv I'm just using trends idk who even the starting qb is for either team, just goin with MAC trends and niu as fave cheers dude
 
if wmich can't score more than 10 1H then it's over but if they score more than 10 u know it's good

since their new coach last year they're 7-5 su and 8-4 ats in conference play
- score 10 or fewer points 1H: 0-4 su and ats 12 ppg
- scoring 21+ points 1H: 7-1 su and ats 42 ppg 8-0 to the over

if they gonna die at least they let u know early but if they're scoring this shiz gonna be good. book lines their 1H team total 13.5 fwiw
 
fwiw Sagarin lines this game NIU -5 but idk how his line translates to betting market

wmich did open as the -1.5 favorite which feels kind of notable and has been subsequently flipped to the underdog on huge majority of bets for NIU with NIU defense and perception wmich "has good offense but hasn't played anybody" they MIGHT have been able to sell this game at -5 and gotten equal action on both sides who knows but as for now they're just sitting back collecting money on NIU su and ats. if it works how I think there's gonna be a big surprise 🤣 anyway alright that's about all i can do except hope i don't end up looking like an idiot lol cheers bro
 
tied at 21.. then oof
broncos allow kickoff return TD
broncos qb throws a retarded pick on the very next play from scrimmage
boom 14 point swing
 
really could've used the o30.5
should've been 35-35 and played out from there
a kickoff return for touchdown, two picks and a touchdown taken off the board too much to overcome when you're trading TDs
😒 should've just played the over
 
Wake can mash after a bye at home. Initially wanted them to score 38+ but Cal's defense might not let them get that high. But the 54.5 is a red flag to me after seeing what Wake can do after a bye at home. Their HC has been in this spot before and mashed for like 40-50 ppg. They were faves in those. So I'm sticking to the lined total rather than reaching for bigger-payout plays. If I could only play one it would be the 54.5 though.

Wake o23.5 -110
Wake/Cal o54.5 -110

fwiw sagarin made the total around 47 48 so this looks like a sign to me with the way wake mashes after bye weeks that's my only angle. no idea on side cheers bro
 
I think memphis should be DD. Looks like that was the original spread. Maybe injuries? idk not really interested

I like ucla because Iowa home vs away is a different animal and i won money on ucla already this year. might go ucla ml for ****s & giggs

sdst new mexico looks like a total trap line. lots of time to decide but if its a trap new mexico should win
 
went memphis pk/minnesota pk/lsu +3.5 for a +246

rutgers is a home dog nightmare like 0-20 L20 or something stupid and i been trying to fit the fade in somewhere. i figured out being set up with the points at the + number (if the first two hit) gives u a little freedom to work with like last night with bengals +3.5 +247 and raves o28.5 -166
 
i gotta rethink my ucla
looks like my "iowa home vs away is a different animal" might not be up to date since their recent coaching ****
 
New Mexico is decent (for them) and a surprise. But more of a surprise is how far SDSU has fallen. New Mexico, as a slightly better football team than SDSU (on a neutral field)? I did not see that coming. Very tempted to make my first CFB wager this season. On New Mexico.

Vegas throws out the bait for Friday night, drunk, last-call gamblers ... or kind of? Bros will gobble up the Aztecs at less than a FG I'm guessing. At home against the Lobos? I'm too lazy to look but I can't imagine there are many wins for New Mexico at SDSU over the last couple decades. Could former BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall be making a little difference down there? I haven't watched them play, but pretty sure they will be fired up to play on national TV Friday night.

SDSU OTOH, is dog **** and in total rebuild with a frosh at QB and new system. This has to be one of their worst teams in some time. I expect between 75 - 100 in paid attendance. They'll all be in Pacific Beach getting lit.

Yeah, that does it, talked myself into it. Go Lobos!
 
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Virginia +7.5 -118

noticed a majority on Pit without much line movement. sagarin's number made Pit a two-touchdown favorite. so with that line maybe they're asking for Pit money. looked into it and virginia good history off bye and good history after three-consecutive losses. that's the situation they're in. also i kinda hate Pit but mostly their coach. got real tired of sweating his dumb decisions holding Pit tickets earlier this season. kinda hope they lose su
 
that byu game was intense.
I had them at pk to close a parlay +797
ended up buying utah -122 for a huge chunk in the 3Q 😂
byu was pretty overwhelmed in there
anyway Utah +3 was definitely the play never in doubt
 
oh boy washington
boy oh boy
what a BONEhead! 🤣

gonna miss ekler by 2 yards
opened at 44.5
closed at 45.5
sitting at 44 yards rn
Washington started running that rodriguez guy in the 3Q and ekler never saw the ball past that
 
got off the jets
had pit/jets +273
folded early
made $3.26

for some reason the book is still only giving them 5.5 down 11 so feels like I cheated a little bit (jets must be popular today)
 
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