*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

[ChainsawU]

Steelers on 3 days rest
They had the bye and beat Washington and Baltimore. Now they got this **** *** game in Cleveland before a long-rested travel to Cincinnati and then W14 hosting the Browns again.

I saw Steelers moneyline go from -198 to -184 getting cheaper tonight and probably for good reason. They are 8-2 right now and if there's any spot for a letdown it's on 3 days rest after banging with the freakin' Ravens. Cleveland can play defense.

Check out the rest of Steelers' schedule:
Nov 21 @ Browns
Dec 1 @ Cincy (9 days rest)
Dec 8 host Browns
Dec 15 @ Philly
Dec 21 @ Baltimore (5 days rest) Saturday
Dec 25 host Chiefs (3 days rest) Wednesday
Jan 5 host Cincy (10 days rest)

that's a lot of division and weird timing. five of their next seven with weird rests in there. I could see them going 2-0 vs Cincy with all that time to prepare. I could see them say f-it vs the Chiefs. And I could see them going 1-1 vs both Cleveland and Baltimore and finish 12-5.

anyway all this to say that Browns line looks fishy af tomorrow huge majority on the Steelers. I didn't put them in any moneyline parlays I'll tell u that much

 

[ChainsawU]

steelers win total was 8.5 in september currently sitting at 11.5

 

[ChainsawU]

could totally see them losing and once again people saying how dumb thursday games are while they rip up tickets

 

[Raging weasel]

Buff/EMU over 49.5
Ohio +1.5
Under 51
Navarro TD
Boosted to +941

 

[ChainsawU]

saw Steelers moneyline go from -198 to -184

-174

 

[ChainsawU]

raves have allowed 3146 passing yards (32nd) steelers got 181 of those

 

[ChainsawU]

i could be way off and it's just weather instead of my big conspiracy theory

 

[ChainsawU]

last six years Browns 18-15 su and 16-16-1 ats in games less than 48° (avg temp 38)

away 4-12 su
home 14-3 su

 

[ChainsawU]

the opposing team's locker room must be really cold or something I'm goin Browns because that info is shaaarp baby that's damascus steel level sharpness on that info bro

 

[Raging weasel]

My brain is telling me Steelers should smash the Browns and was going to go Pitt -5.5. Now in second guessing myself reading through all these stats and trends

 

[ChainsawU]

they have them again in 2 weeks and will definitely smash. coach said chubb was intentionally left out of last weeks gameplan he was resting while steelers were rock fighting the ravens

 

[ChainsawU]

also check the weather Russ' long ball might not be flying tonight

 

[Wingnut]

My brain is telling me Steelers should smash the Browns and was going to go Pitt -5.5. Now in second guessing myself reading through all these stats and trends

Steelers have lost 8 of their last 9 road TNF games.

 

[-fish-]

Steelers on 3 days rest
They had the bye and beat Washington and Baltimore. Now they got this **** *** game in Cleveland before a long-rested travel to Cincinnati and then W14 hosting the Browns again.

I saw Steelers moneyline go from -198 to -184 getting cheaper tonight and probably for good reason. They are 8-2 right now and if there's any spot for a letdown it's on 3 days rest after banging with the freakin' Ravens. Cleveland can play defense.

Check out the rest of Steelers' schedule:
Nov 21 @ Browns
Dec 1 @ Cincy (9 days rest)
Dec 8 host Browns
Dec 15 @ Philly
Dec 21 @ Baltimore (5 days rest) Saturday
Dec 25 host Chiefs (3 days rest) Wednesday
Jan 5 host Cincy (10 days rest)

that's a lot of division and weird timing. five of their next seven with weird rests in there. I could see them going 2-0 vs Cincy with all that time to prepare. I could see them say f-it vs the Chiefs. And I could see them going 1-1 vs both Cleveland and Baltimore and finish 12-5.

anyway all this to say that Browns line looks fishy af tomorrow huge majority on the Steelers. I didn't put them in any moneyline parlays I'll tell u that much

Cleveland is the 19th ranked defense in the NFL and they're giving up about 135 yds/game rushing (bottom 10), and 24.8 pts/game (bottom 10). Tied for second to last in takeaways. Pass defense is right in the middle.

Don't know what metric you're using to make this statement.

 

[Raging weasel]

DK has a no sweat bet for this game so problem solved, can back Steelers and either win or get my money back.
Pitt
Pickens 50+ rec
Ford over 4.5 rush attempts
Queen over 4.5 tackles
Boswell over 1.5 FG made
+850

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I’m leaning towards a NO TD bet tonight

 

[Raging weasel]

I’m leaning towards a NO TD bet tonight

At +3000 it's worth a shot

 

[ChainsawU]

Don't know what metric you're using to make this statement.

dang dude i didn't know that, good catch

 

[Wingnut]

Weather be damned, here's a fun one I put $10 on:

Harris 50+ rush yds
Warren 25+ rush yds
Chubbs 25+ rush yds
Pickens 40+ rec yds
Jeudy 25+ rec yds
Moore 25+ rec yds
Tillman 25+ rec yds
Njoku 4+ rec
Freiermuth 2+ rec
Warren 2+ rec
+1400

 

[ChainsawU]

gotta get eyes on the field first
ive been burned by twitter weathermen before

 

[ChainsawU]

indiana is 13-3 to the over since 2011
current majority of bets on under
weather wind/cold to have light impact if at all

 

[ChainsawU]

indiana is 13-3 to the over since 2011
current majority of bets on under
weather wind/cold to have light impact if at all

games totaled 35,35,44 in the unders
58+ in the overs

i got a profit boost on that game think i know where it's going

 

[ChainsawU]

my bad my over bet jacked the total up to 53 but it's starting to come back down don't worry

 

[ChainsawU]

tampa win the division +350

they have an easy schedule but also this kinda about atlanta and Cousins being able to win a MNF game in vegas if u look at the schedule. saw this at 240 elsewhere just rollin the dice on baker and getting his dudes back they still have a shot

 

[ChainsawU]

on that indiana total i meant after a bye
also teams coming off bye vs ohst 11-3 ou since 2014
thinking about boosting ohst o29.5 to -114
gonna wait and see if it comea down a little

 

[Wingnut]

TNF

Pickens 4+ rec
Jeudy 4+ rec
Harris 50+ rush yds
+275

9 yards short.

 

[ChainsawU]

sparty -13.5 -115
over 30.5 -136
purdue sucks in night games they love to lose by double digits in B10 night games and Sparty needs a get right game

was gonna go unlv same way but looks like rain

 

[ChainsawU]

whats up devils cats

 

[ChainsawU]

line looks funny moved -120 to -130
wonder who it was probably walters maybe lang or could be one of the syndicates

 

[ChainsawU]

this is the first time all season I ever threw the FOX channel any channel on live before the game this season. bro. seriously. what is up with all the betting. how is "Bear" giving his take on +600 three-team parlays

 

[ChainsawU]

how is matt leinart telling u he thinks ole miss is a one-score game and then a draftkings special presentation pops up. idk whats worse emmit smith selling diapers. i remember when our biggest threat was frank thomas selling boner pills now they want you to crap in a box and mail it

 

[ChainsawU]

OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RYAN DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ChainsawU]

im losing my mind rn
that never should've hit
respect if u had the under
that's a ****ty way to lose a good bet

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I had Rutgers in some parlays probably weren’t gonna win anyway but cmon man

 

[ChainsawU]

duke is 7-3 su and 5-4-1 ats
dog of 10 or more 0-3
lined +3 or less or fave undefeated
only home loss was by 1 as a 10-point dog

8-1 su last four years in spreads lined ±3 or less only loss was -3 vs virginia

if u wanted to back duke they look good from this standpoint

 

[ChainsawU]

im goin with eagles tomorrow
grass 4-2 su and 2-4 ats 23.5 points allowed
artificial 4-0 su and ats 9.5 points allowed

small sample they played saints, giants, cincy and cowboys on turf this year but it's a stark contrast regardless. maybe they're just better on turf im picking them

 

[ChainsawU]

*winning by 3,25,20,28 on turf

 

[Wingnut]

Otton 4+ rec
Irving 2+ rec
Bucs ML
+135

 

[Raging weasel]

Alt spread parlay at +170
Lions -6
KC -9

Lions/Colts SGP boosted to +3325
Lions -6
Monty TD
St Brown TD
Gibbs 25+ rec
Richardson 40+ rushing
Taylor under 71.5 rush

Rushing yards parlay at +516
Montgomery over 57.5
Irving over 54.5
Conner over 68.5

Anytime TD mega parlay at +3113
St Brown,Hunt,Evans,Achane, Metcalf and Barkley

Mega 6 point teaser at +600
Lions -1.5
KC -4.5
Texans -2
Bucs -.5
Cowboys +16.5
Eagles +3

 

[ChainsawU]

dolphins division opponents L5 seasons:
13-15 su and 9-19 ats

scoring 19 or fewer 0-13 su and ats
scoring 21 or more 13-2 su and 9-6 ats

pats team total is 18.5

 

[ChainsawU]

L5 seasons Pats 12-16 and 13-15 ats division play

total lined 43 or less: 12-7 su and ats
total more than 43: 0-9 su and 1-8 ats

dolphins 30-15 might make sense
I'd lay the 7.5 up to 11.5

 

[Wingnut]

I have a feeling the Colts cover today.

 

[ChainsawU]

dolphins play packers on thursday
that kinda sucks.

mcdaniel played two games with next rest =3 and both went way under and didn't blow anyone out

 

[ChainsawU]

I have a feeling the Colts cover today.

u gotta have large ones to try that
don't fade the lions brother
AR vs the covering machine
all they so is cover why do u think that

 

[ChainsawU]

7 is a lot and I can only find two instances in history where the lions laid more than 7 on the road

its been 10 years
2014 at Bears and
1995 at Bucs

can't blame you for taking a key number and the hook though. I love dawgs you know I love dogs but thats a hard sell

 

[ChainsawU]

there are an absolute **** load of bets on the bucs today

 

[Wingnut]

I have a feeling the Colts cover today.

u gotta have large ones to try that
don't fade the lions brother
AR vs the covering machine
all they so is cover why do u think that

I'm not touching it, just a feeling that it's gonna be closer than we think.

 

[ChainsawU]

Respect

 

[ChainsawU]

Bears have less than a handful of division wins the last 5 years but the only, only spot they've done well is home dogs catching 3 or less. It's not enough to hang your hat on, but if they were gonna win this would be it. Not touching it though. I would bet Bears +6.5 though for sure

 

[Raging weasel]

I have a feeling the Colts cover today.

I didn't like the hook either so dropped to -6 to be "safe"
Colts best chance to cover is if JT and AR run wild vs our depleted DK and LBs.
Lions being just a game up in Vikings should keep them from a letdown game