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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

dont like denver today
they play raiders on thursday

really wish I would have started JAX DST today instead of DEN DST. one of the sharper dudes in my league picked up JAX about an hour ago
 
they just won. college ball. I bought them on a contrarian angle at +100 and they promptly went to -125 before tip. it was huge shrap action. i got in here and posted as soon as i could. they tipped off about 5 min after my post
 
by the way, kc, what is your nfl record in night games? last night was my first primetime win all year and I think I been oppo you all season on those. you must be killing nfl prime time this season. just been wanting to say that.

(seattle was my first prime time win last night. and o29.5 +235 too! teams have been averaging 33.5 ppg in wins vs skins so I got them good last night)
 
looking forward to tonight. "mnf after a bye week" is the spot for the cards. and, additionally, it feels like they had their choice of QB and going with the best one available. bears won at washington in this spot. falcons beat the bills in this spot.

looking ahead - eagles are in this same spot in GB next week, too. packers were obviously trying to put equal work in this week and overlooked the cats as a result.

*i haven't bought anything for tonight yet. like to wait and see how it moves before tipoff
 
- EDM/STL over 6.0 -120
- Dylan Holloway 3+ shots on goal +132 (facing his former team)
- Easton Cowan point +140 (on the top power play tonight apparently)
- SGP (CHI/SEA) Montour 2+ shots/Rinzel 2+ shots/Nazar 2+ shots +200
 
ohio last four seasons has mashed in weekday games. especially at home. now miami wins their share of conference games and looking at the line movement I was ready to bet them until I saw how ohio does at home and on weekdays. they were 13-0 non-saturday games 10-2-1 ats until this year a thursday double-digit dog at rutgers (-15.5) tied 31-31 going into 4q rutgers won 34-31

anyway that's just too many wins to ignore avg score 33-18 even better at home and i rarely give points cheers brethren

ohio -2½ -120
ohio o29½ +140
 
kent state hasn't won a road game since 2022. sagarin's number says ball state should be laying a touchdown+

something isn't right. literally look at kent state last 18 road games. all losses. how many did they cover? 3-13-2 ats

lost those 18 games by a total of 645 points. over 35 ppg. that's a huge stench somebody should look into why this line is so small/overwhelming majority of bets on ball state
 
last calendar year morgan state 10-0 ou they play on friday espnu. not sure how public that info is. prolly why the total is high
 
i guess thats just their real price on ball state. unless the line does a no hands cartwheel during warmups/inactives are announced
 
ohio worked even after the slow start. they had a long touchdown pass 50/50 ball come down in the endzone. defender had stronger hands wrestled it away for touchback. that was first half. really disappointed at the o29.5 +700 purchased after the slow start w 100% boost. at least the -2.5 held up
 
Updated my spreadsheet... based on my Bet365 bets, I made 29 hockey bets last week to net $10 :lol:

Fortunately, when i went to add in my Fanduel bets (I don't use it much, just boosts etc), I found a +1315 bet that hit on Saturday night, that I definitely remember making (I certainly wasn't ****faced watching the Jays and doing dumb things...).
 
Tonight:

- Matthews/Nylander point each (+110, Bet 365 Canada Super Boost)
- Seattle Kraken -1.5 (+150 - better team, better goalie (Daccord vs Askarov), SJ has injuries).
- Dalibor Dvorsky point (+150, on top PP and looks real good)
- Jet Greaves/Dustin Wolf both 25+ saves (+140, used the 365 safety net bet here)


I'll probably add something on the Chicago/Vancouver game since I have all the other games covered but nothing jumps out. I don't hate the Blackhawks as a +140 underdog with Lankinen in net for Vancouver but we'll see.
 
ChainsawU said:
majority of bets on ball state
Click to expand...
at least some kent state support is coming in now. so its not some diabolical trap.

last 3 seasons kent st games 18-14 ou and 16-4 ou when kent state score more than 7. so hopefully the home team keeps kicking the **** out of them like always. no rain light wind

o48.5 -110
ball o26.5 -111
ball o32.5 +230
 
ball qb 12 rush attempts 60 yd 1h. for no reason. stupid. now he's gimpy. neither of these teams runs well anyway. pretty transparent somebody's dedicated to manufacturing some rushing yards and its killing them
 
21 of their 33 rush attempts was designed qb run. the dude's helmet flew off twice! they kept running him! whatever they worked on during the bye the last two weeks we didn't see any of it tonight. but for why? it's another 10 days before they even have to play again. nothing explains this!
 
ChainsawU said:
needed a few more goals from the blues tonight
Click to expand...
St Louis sucks. Their roster shouldn't. Same as last year. Keep fooling me I guess.

Nylander/Matthews one hit early so 1/2 in early games at least.

There are shots galore in this CGY/CBJ game as expected but I'm worried if Greaves lets in another one he'll be pulled before he can hit his total.
 
home team has won and covered L3 between app state and georgia southern. last three seasons that's what it's like vs georgia southern. hosting them usually works (68.8% su and ats) while playing at their house sucks (25% su and ats). two games at neutral sites even went 2-0 su and ats so fade them away from home; app state is hosting. they are giving a lot of points to georgia southern but I think there is a reason.

L3 seasons teams hosting georgia southern have gone 11-5 su and ats and only one of the wins was less than dd. across every type of line, dog thru fave. so my guess is dd win.

scoring 30 or fewer: 0-5 su and ats
scoring 34 or more: 11-0 su and ats

this spans 3 years but is also 4-0 su and ats L4.

going spread, ml par with houston and tt o33.5
 
Bowers TD +175
Bech over 12.5 rec yards. -110
Franklin 50+. +100

NBA dudes. There's a boost of Devin Booker 25 pts and 7 assists at +200. Good value?
 
Snuggerud 3+ shots +165
Holloway 3+ shots +155

The Blues burn me every night but the thinking here is with these plus odds , one of these losers should hit and put me ahead for the night.
 
I also did

Franklin 50+/Tucker 50+/Sutton 40+/Engram 30+/Jeanty 50+/Harvey 20+. +2500

Not that I would ever advise but so I can come in here if this is miracle hits and it's not an after the fact thing.
 
I looked at how coming off the bye week + 3 day rest Thursday has worked in the past.. it hasn't. that's where the raiders are. only thing I hate is that broncos just banged heads with the toughest defense in the league 4 days ago. I'm expecting something like 31-3. just gonna shoot for the moon.

broncos -16.5 +200/byu ml +300
+1100
 
2017 last time app st was shut out 1h. i completely got sucked into the research didn't take time to consider the 90% of bets on the home fave. this is brutal
 
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