What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official Jays Thread*** Lots of optimism, again. (1 Viewer)

'Eephus said:
Bullpen could use some help as well
Click to expand...
Bullpen has incredible upside, I'll be surprised if they add anyone.They've traded decent pieces (Snider, Thames, Aviles) for Rogers, Lincoln and Delabar, money for Jeffress - all hard throwing guys with tons of years of control. Plus Janssen, Santos, Oliver, Cecil, Loup, Perez... Don't think you'll see a bullpen move before the start of the season.
 
'Northern Voice said:
'Eephus said:
Bullpen could use some help as well
Click to expand...
Bullpen has incredible upside, I'll be surprised if they add anyone.They've traded decent pieces (Snider, Thames, Aviles) for Rogers, Lincoln and Delabar, money for Jeffress - all hard throwing guys with tons of years of control. Plus Janssen, Santos, Oliver, Cecil, Loup, Perez... Don't think you'll see a bullpen move before the start of the season.
Click to expand...
Control and Jeffress don't belong in the same sentence.Santos' surgery wasn't directly related to the rotator cuff or labrum but it's still shoulder surgery. Oliver is supposedly leaning toward retirement.Casey Janssen has been very effective the past two years, so I'm probably underestimating him.
 
I'm not sure it will be great, I just think Lincoln, Delabar, Rogers, Janssen, Oliver are assured spots. Then Santos if healthty, and another lefty (Loup or Cecil) and you're full

 
Good read from DJF/Score:

In the middle of a career year, Melky Cabrera was suspended for fifty games last season after he tested positive for high levels of testosterone, which indicated usage of performance enhancing drugs. After being found out, and while appealing the ban, Cabrera had a website setup to reverse-engineer a digital trail that would make it appear as though he had purchased a legal supplement in good faith, aiming to argue that he’d ingested the drugs through no fault of his own. He was quickly found out, failed to get the ban overturned, and when it expired five games into the playoffs, the San Francisco Giants declined to add him to their playoff roster, despite having an anaemic offence– which obviously didn’t hinder them very much.

So… why sign him?

Oddly enough, it’s kinda mostly because of that.

No, drug-suspended guys aren’t the new market inefficiency, except… maybe they kind of are.

Cabrera was getting MVP whispers before word of the suspension surfaced, and for good reason. He was worth four-and-a-half wins through just 113 games in 2012, with a .346/.390/.516 line and his best-looking defensive metrics since 2009, thanks to the Giants’ astute realization that he’s nobody’s centre fielder.

But even without the drugs or the suspension there was a problem, as those numbers were powered by an stunningly high batting average on balls in play. Melky hit safely on 38.7% of the balls he put in play in 2011– well above his career BABIP of .328, which is itself now skewed by the 2012 number and the abnormally high .350 he posted in 2011.

To add some perspective, BABIP is Ichiro’s calling card, for example, and even he’s only topped Cabrera’s 2012 rate once in his career.

So… it’s fairly safe to assume that Cabrera won’t ever reach those kinds of BABIP-driven numbers again– even the typically-bullish Bill James Handbook projections have him at a considerably-declined .295/.348/.432 for 2013. But while that kind of additional reason to expect regression may sound like a double-whammy for those who are PED wary, but the reality just isn’t so simple.

It’s understandable that many folks look at the suspension, coupled with the career year Cabrera had in 2012– not to mention his next best season by far having come in the year previous– and conclude that he took drugs, got better, and is certain to turn back into a pumpkin now that he’s been caught. And frankly, I can’t with any confidence say that there isn’t a chance that we’ll never see the same Melky that we did in 2012– in fact, we probably won’t. I can’t even say that his 2011 won’t ultimately be an aberration as well. But I’m far more concerned about BABIP aspect of it than the PEDs– I mean, isn’t the whole steroid narrative that they’re supposed to make you stronger? Give you more power?

That certainly wasn’t the case for Melky– he hit just 11 home runs in his suspension-shortened 2012. And it certainly isn’t the case, if you look at league average BABIP numbers through the PED era of the late-90s and early-2000s, that players being juiced up appears to lead to a higher percentage of balls in play falling for hits. To me, that means there’s reason enough not to completely dismiss the notion that Cabrera changed something about his approach or his swing, and that maybe some not insignificant level of BABIP skill he displayed in the last two seasons is genuine.

And even if not, it remains an shrewdly calculated risk for the Jays to be hoping the answer isn’t as simple as the reductive “no PEDs, no production” line. Especially when you factor in the money.

I’m sure it will never stop feeling weird to suggest that a sum like $8-million isn’t a crapload of money, but in terms of an MLB payroll, it’s really not. Especially a payroll that now looks like it may genuinely reach north of $120-million. Cabrera’s deal will take up just one fifteenth of what the club spends on salaries in 2013, and the $8-million figure means that the club isn’t even paying him to be average– the cost of one win above replacement on the free agent market is generally cited as being in the neighbourhood of $4- to $4.5-million, though Cleveland president Mark Shapiro recently said placed the figure way up at $9-million.

Say what you will about the accuracy of those figures– the wide variation makes clear that it can certainly be debated, and I’ve never seen the value in taking that stuff as gospel– the fact is, the Jays are getting a major discount on a guy capable of the production Melky’s provided in the past two seasons, especially by getting Cabrera to agree to two-year deal, and much of it is down to a PED stink that, to me, isn’t nearly as troubling as it may seem on the surface.

It’s a fantastic deal, all things considered– doubly so considering the beautiful #### fits and convoluted logical twists its sure to provoke as the local hacks try to wrap their minds around it. It’s one that will hardly kill the club even as a worst case scenario, and one that was entirely made possible by the Marlins deal that preceded it.

To a free agent like Cabrera, having a shot at being a part of a fantastic, winning team matters. Playing in a very hitter-friendly park in your first season post-PED-suspension surely doesn’t hurt either, but it’s not nearly so easily to envision Cabrera agreeing to join the Jays had it not been for the reinforcements brought in this week, and the commitment ownership has shown. That’s precisely why Alex Anthopoulos had his back against the wall this winter, before he pulled a Marlins fire sale out of his ###.

The Jays now have a fantastic pair of switch hitters at the top of their lineup– two former NL batting champs, if you can ####### believe it!– which should provide ridiculous opportunities for Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion to drive in runs.

####, even Adam Lind and whoever they bring in as his platoon partner (Jonny Gomes you very much?) will get in on the action, assuming the club goes in that direction. You could even DH Rajai Davis against left-handed pitching and be entirely fine. Crazier still, Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus (who, if he has another 2010 in him– not that he has to– look the #### out) were perhaps being counted on to be the third and fourth best hitters on the club as of a week ago, and are now looking at hitting sixth and seventh in the order. And Travis d’Arnaud is coming. Aaaaand whether it’s Izturis or Bonifacio who ends up taking most of the at-bats at second base, they’ll get on base a decent enough amount to get things going again with the ridiculous, video game dream top of the order– two batting champs, followed by two 40 home run sluggers.

Best of all, there’s so much talent, one through nine, that everything doesn’t even have to break right. Down years out of half of these guys will still give you a very nice lineup, and it’s still only November 16th– can anybody outside of the front office really believe at this point that Alex is ready to put his feet up? We may still see a DH move. We may still see Ricky Romero pushed down into the fifth starter’s slot.

I mean… holy ####, pinch me!
Click to expand...
 
'scoobus said:
For blue jays fans, what's the chances of Ricky Romero bouncing back next season? What went wrong?
Click to expand...
I haven't read anything definitive on what was wrong with him. Apparently he was playing through some elbow pain this year and had arthroscopic surgery after the season. Personally, I just don't think he was ever that good... a solid number 3/4 kind of guy. Then this year he was walking a lot more, striking out less and a pretty terrible BABIP. I think/hope he'll come back to the pitcher he was in 09/10. I really doubt he is ever as good again as he was in 2011.
 
'Brady Marino said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Brady Marino said:
EE strictly DH now? I thought he was your 1B.
Click to expand...
DH is his best role. His fielding is pretty terrible.
Click to expand...
Your fielding has to be brutal to not even be considered for 1B, a position where fielding isn't exactly a pre-requisite.
Click to expand...
His nickname is E5 for a reason. Any defensive stats say he is one of the worst.I'm sure he'll get plenty of games at 1st. If Lind can't be moved they'd probably have a rotation of Lind/Davis/EE through 1st and DH. When facing lefties, EE plays 1st, Davis DH, Lind bench. Rights have Lind at 1st, EE DH and Davis on the bench.
 
Gibbons is strong enough to contain Lawrie (I hope). I like it from the standpoint that he was a good bullpen manager and knows how to use splits/platoons. Plus, the strut.

 
Heard some grumblings that the Jays are sniffing around Minn, and inquiring about Morneau

 
What's with Toronto and bringing back managers? Cito and now Gibbons are making return engagements. That's not very common in baseball history. St. Louis has only brought back Red Schoendienst for a couple of interim gigs and other than some McGraw weirdness towards the end of his run, the Giants have never done it.

 
'Northern Voice said:
'Parmcat said:
Heard some grumblings that the Jays are sniffing around Minn, and inquiring about Morneau
Click to expand...
No thanks, worse than Lind at this point. If he wasn't Canadian, no one up here would want him.
Click to expand...
I would take a healthy Morneau over Lind everyday of the week
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
CesarMaicer Izturis signed for 3/$10ish. Not a bad deal. Gives them the option to get rid of Escobar if his value picks up a bit and/or wait on Hech a little while longer. At worst a decent utility guy ( :bye: McCoy)

Some stoner reliever bought from KC? Lots of big arms in a now crowded pen.
Click to expand...
If the Jays had spent $10 million on Caesar, they might as well have just folded the franchise.
Click to expand...
Jays actually did sign Cesar Izturis today (minor league deal with camp invite).
 
'Northern Voice said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
CesarMaicer Izturis signed for 3/$10ish. Not a bad deal. Gives them the option to get rid of Escobar if his value picks up a bit and/or wait on Hech a little while longer. At worst a decent utility guy ( :bye: McCoy)

Some stoner reliever bought from KC? Lots of big arms in a now crowded pen.
Click to expand...
If the Jays had spent $10 million on Caesar, they might as well have just folded the franchise.
Click to expand...
Jays actually did sign Cesar Izturis today (minor league deal with camp invite).
Click to expand...
They must really have had Hechevarria withdrawls.
 
'Northern Voice said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
CesarMaicer Izturis signed for 3/$10ish. Not a bad deal. Gives them the option to get rid of Escobar if his value picks up a bit and/or wait on Hech a little while longer. At worst a decent utility guy ( :bye: McCoy)

Some stoner reliever bought from KC? Lots of big arms in a now crowded pen.
Click to expand...
If the Jays had spent $10 million on Caesar, they might as well have just folded the franchise.
Click to expand...
Jays actually did sign Cesar Izturis today (minor league deal with camp invite).
Click to expand...
:lmao: It was actually Julio Izturis...http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/11/22/blue_jays_sign_julio_not_cesar_izturis/



The Toronto Blue Jays have indeed signed another Izturis brother, it's just not the one everyone was led to believe.

On Wednesday afternoon a report surfaced that the Blue Jays has signed 32-year-old Cesar Izturis to a minor-league contract.

Earlier this month, the Blue Jays signed Cesar's younger brother Maicer, to a three-year, $9-million deal.

The source of the Cesar report -- Matt Eddy of Baseball America -- and the rationale behind the signing, both seemed credible, especially given the Blue Jays' lack of organizational depth in the middle infield.

As a result, several media outlets -- including Sportsnet.ca -- ran with the story.

Then things simply got weird.

Tweets began surfacing from an account claiming to be Cesar Izturis's. The tweets appeared genuine at first but when they quickly turned dark, vulgar and profane it became obvious the account, no longer in existence, was a hoax.

On Thursday a Blue Jays official told Sportsnet 590 The Fan the team has not signed Cesar Izturis. A short while later, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi learned the truth was the Blue Jays had actually signed another Izturis brother, in this case 23-year-old Julio.

According to baseball-reference.com, the 23-year-old Julio last played in 2011 with the short-season single-A Salem-Keizer Volcanoes in the San Francisco Giants system.

He too is a middle infielder. Just don't ask me for his Twitter handle.
Click to expand...

 
Lots of news from Anthopolous in here http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/2012/11/29/anthopoulos-talks-current-state-of-affairs-in-blue-jays-land/ (really long but a good read)

Highlights:

Maicer Izturis is likely to start at 2B, with Bonifacio as a super-utility guy. Seems like Rajai Davis may get lost in the shuffle this coming season.

Happ is not guaranteed the #5 starter spot, could still add someone, will certainly add AAA depth/minor league contracts

Jays not in the market for any free agent position players (only pitchers), which makes sense.

Adam Lind guaranteed nothing (which is good because he blows). Edwin everyday first baseman.

Some talk of D'Arnaud as a DH, seems like a huge waste, the team seems to love Arenicbia, also mentions Cooper in the mix with Lind.

Bobby Wilson (nominal 3rd string catcher) likely gone from the roster soon reading between the lines.

Dustin McGowan will be ready for spring training (yeah, right)

Didn't want to trade Mathis for Buck in Miami deal, originally stopped the deal because of it and their commitment to Mathis. Buck excited to be back.

Still believes in Hech but with 5 years of Reyes he would have never cracked the lineup.

Bautista wants to play winter ball, Jays saying no, wants to play WBC, Jays leaning towards no for that as well.

Thinks Rasmus may have tired, said he is constantly swinging/in batting cages, works hard, might need to work smarter.

 
'Northern Voice said:
Lots of news from Anthopolous in here http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/2012/11/29/anthopoulos-talks-current-state-of-affairs-in-blue-jays-land/ (really long but a good read)

Highlights:

Maicer Izturis is likely to start at 2B, with Bonifacio as a super-utility guy. Seems like Rajai Davis may get lost in the shuffle this coming season.

Happ is not guaranteed the #5 starter spot, could still add someone, will certainly add AAA depth/minor league contracts

Jays not in the market for any free agent position players (only pitchers), which makes sense.

Adam Lind guaranteed nothing (which is good because he blows). Edwin everyday first baseman.

Some talk of D'Arnaud as a DH, seems like a huge waste, the team seems to love Arenicbia, also mentions Cooper in the mix with Lind.

Bobby Wilson (nominal 3rd string catcher) likely gone from the roster soon reading between the lines.

Dustin McGowan will be ready for spring training (yeah, right)

Didn't want to trade Mathis for Buck in Miami deal, originally stopped the deal because of it and their commitment to Mathis. Buck excited to be back.

Still believes in Hech but with 5 years of Reyes he would have never cracked the lineup.

Bautista wants to play winter ball, Jays saying no, wants to play WBC, Jays leaning towards no for that as well.

Thinks Rasmus may have tired, said he is constantly swinging/in batting cages, works hard, might need to work smarter.
Click to expand...
That's great, but unless AA brings in another bat, Lind sure doesn't have much in the way of competition for the DH spot. Hard to see any of Buck/Bonifacio/Rajai beating him out to start the year.
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Northern Voice said:
Lots of news from Anthopolous in here http://gregorchishol...blue-jays-land/ (really long but a good read)

Adam Lind guaranteed nothing (which is good because he blows). Edwin everyday first baseman.
Click to expand...
That's great, but unless AA brings in another bat, Lind sure doesn't have much in the way of competition for the DH spot. Hard to see any of Buck/Bonifacio/Rajai beating him out to start the year.
Click to expand...
Rajai is a career .766 OPS vs. lefties, Lind is .607. A Davis/Lind DH platoon would be fine.
 
'Northern Voice said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Northern Voice said:
Lots of news from Anthopolous in here http://gregorchishol...blue-jays-land/ (really long but a good read)

Adam Lind guaranteed nothing (which is good because he blows). Edwin everyday first baseman.
Click to expand...
That's great, but unless AA brings in another bat, Lind sure doesn't have much in the way of competition for the DH spot. Hard to see any of Buck/Bonifacio/Rajai beating him out to start the year.
Click to expand...
Rajai is a career .766 OPS vs. lefties, Lind is .607. A Davis/Lind DH platoon would be mediocre.
Click to expand...
 
'Eephus said:
'Northern Voice said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Northern Voice said:
Lots of news from Anthopolous in here http://gregorchishol...blue-jays-land/ (really long but a good read)

Adam Lind guaranteed nothing (which is good because he blows). Edwin everyday first baseman.
Click to expand...
That's great, but unless AA brings in another bat, Lind sure doesn't have much in the way of competition for the DH spot. Hard to see any of Buck/Bonifacio/Rajai beating him out to start the year.
Click to expand...
Rajai is a career .766 OPS vs. lefties, Lind is .607. A Davis/Lind DH platoon would be mediocre.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Thought this was interesting from DJF today:

Lind's best season against LHP, by far, was, naturally, way back in 2009 (he's been unplayably ####### awful since then), and even that only produced a .336 wOBA– Emilio Bonifacio posted a .381 in 2011, and Rajai Davis produced a .363 in 2011 and a .340 last year. Even John Buck, who has been as terrible against lefties as Lind over the last two seasons, has more recent and greater success in that split, posting a whopping .478 wOBA in 2010 (higher than his last two seasons' worth added together).

Davis is the real eye-opener: he's hit left-handed pitching better over the last two years than Lind did in the year he won the damn Silver Slugger. And yet the club is still toying with the idea of having Lind #### around against them, hopeful he'll find some kind of magic.

I can understand it, I guess, but if the leash isn't short, you'd better believe you'll hear some pissing and moaning about it around here.
Click to expand...
Also, a cool interview here with Josh Johnson

 
Last edited by a moderator:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?

Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....

 
'Parmcat said:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....
Click to expand...
:shrug: I like it.Giving up a catching prospect and a pitcher who hasn't even played in High-A yet. How many prospects like Noah (because I can't spell his last name) completely flame out? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it is a pretty high rate. The Jays still have a plethora of arms in the system. The door is open for the Jays, time to move. They did a great job of stocking the farm system so they could pull off moves like this.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dickey being signed for 3/30 makes the prospect cost a lot more palatable. That's pretty good for a Cy Young winner who has pitched 600+ IP with a sub 3-ERA over the past 3 seasons.

I just hope J.P. Arencibia rewards the Jays for all the confidence they seem to have in him and raises his OBP above .280 at some point.

 
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Parmcat said:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?

Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....
Click to expand...
:shrug: I like it.Giving up a catching prospect and a pitcher who hasn't even played in High-A yet. How many prospects like Noah (because I can't spell his last name) completely flame out? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it is a pretty high rate. The Jays still have a plethora of arms in the system.

The door is open for the Jays, time to move. They did a great job of stocking the farm system so they could pull off moves like this.
Click to expand...
I can understand that, I just thought AA would have been able to get a better deal than trading away the team's top 2 prospects.
'Northern Voice said:
Dickey being signed for 3/30 makes the prospect cost a lot more palatable. That's pretty good for a Cy Young winner who has pitched 600+ IP with a sub 3-ERA over the past 3 seasons.

I just hope J.P. Arencibia rewards the Jays for all the confidence they seem to have in him and raises his OBP above .280 at some point.
Click to expand...
Consider me a pessimist, but I'm not optimistic about that..
 
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Parmcat said:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?

Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....
Click to expand...
:shrug: I like it.Giving up a catching prospect and a pitcher who hasn't even played in High-A yet. How many prospects like Noah (because I can't spell his last name) completely flame out? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it is a pretty high rate. The Jays still have a plethora of arms in the system.

The door is open for the Jays, time to move. They did a great job of stocking the farm system so they could pull off moves like this.
Click to expand...
I can understand that, I just thought AA would have been able to get a better deal than trading away the team's top 2 prospects.
Click to expand...
A recent Fangraphs article compares it to deals like Halladay, Gonzalez and Santana
We can look at some other recent trades involving high-profile players and contract-extension windows. The three that immediately come to mind are the Johan Santana trade to the Mets, the Roy Halladay trade to the Phillies, and the Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Red Sox. All those guys technically had one year left, but then they reached longer-term agreements. Gonzalez didn’t officially reach an agreement until months after the fact, but the Red Sox came out of the negotiating window feeling confident a deal could be struck. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have agreed to send players to the Padres.

Santana went from the Twins to the Mets in February 2008. At the time, Santana was an ace, and he brought back Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber. Hardly an impressive package in retrospect, but Baseball America ranked those guys the Mets’ #2, #3, #4, and #7 prospects. Guerra was ranked #35 overall. Gomez came in at #52, and Mulvey had just pitched well as a starter in double-A. That wasn’t a bad haul for the Twins; it just didn’t work out for the Twins.

Halladay went from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December 2009. At the time, Halladay was an ace, and he brought back Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and a certain Travis d’Arnaud. The Jays probably haven’t gotten out of that what they were hoping for, but BA ranked those players the Phillies’ #2, #3, and #4 prospects. Drabek was ranked #25 overall, Taylor was ranked #29, and d’Arnaud was ranked #81. These were some non-elite blue-chippers, and of course the Jays just managed to turn d’Arnaud into R.A. Dickey, in part.

Gonzalez went from the Padres to the Red Sox in December 2010. At the time, Gonzalez was one of the more feared hitters in baseball, and he brought back Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and (eventually) Eric Patterson. Let’s just go ahead and skip the Eric Patterson part. BA ranked Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes the Red Sox’s #1, #3, and #6 prospects. Kelly was ranked #31 overall, and Rizzo was #75. In all three of these packages, we see highly-ranked prospects moving around. They’re just highly-ranked, non-elite prospects.
Click to expand...
Doesn't look that out of place for a reigning Cy Young champ with a very friendly 3 year deal. If there was no extension, I would agree with you. What would you expect d'Arnaud and Noah S. to fetch? Upton?
'Northern Voice said:
Dickey being signed for 3/30 makes the prospect cost a lot more palatable. That's pretty good for a Cy Young winner who has pitched 600+ IP with a sub 3-ERA over the past 3 seasons.

I just hope J.P. Arencibia rewards the Jays for all the confidence they seem to have in him and raises his OBP above .280 at some point.
Click to expand...
Consider me a pessimist, but I'm not optimistic about that..
Click to expand...
Even if he doesn't, I really don't think the Jays are going to have offensive problem this year.
 
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Parmcat said:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....
Click to expand...
:shrug: I like it.Giving up a catching prospect and a pitcher who hasn't even played in High-A yet. How many prospects like Noah (because I can't spell his last name) completely flame out? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it is a pretty high rate. The Jays still have a plethora of arms in the system. The door is open for the Jays, time to move. They did a great job of stocking the farm system so they could pull off moves like this.
Click to expand...
I can understand that, I just thought AA would have been able to get a better deal than trading away the team's top 2 prospects.
Click to expand...
A recent Fangraphs article compares it to deals like Halladay, Gonzalez and Santana
We can look at some other recent trades involving high-profile players and contract-extension windows. The three that immediately come to mind are the Johan Santana trade to the Mets, the Roy Halladay trade to the Phillies, and the Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Red Sox. All those guys technically had one year left, but then they reached longer-term agreements. Gonzalez didn’t officially reach an agreement until months after the fact, but the Red Sox came out of the negotiating window feeling confident a deal could be struck. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have agreed to send players to the Padres.Santana went from the Twins to the Mets in February 2008. At the time, Santana was an ace, and he brought back Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber. Hardly an impressive package in retrospect, but Baseball America ranked those guys the Mets’ #2, #3, #4, and #7 prospects. Guerra was ranked #35 overall. Gomez came in at #52, and Mulvey had just pitched well as a starter in double-A. That wasn’t a bad haul for the Twins; it just didn’t work out for the Twins.Halladay went from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December 2009. At the time, Halladay was an ace, and he brought back Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and a certain Travis d’Arnaud. The Jays probably haven’t gotten out of that what they were hoping for, but BA ranked those players the Phillies’ #2, #3, and #4 prospects. Drabek was ranked #25 overall, Taylor was ranked #29, and d’Arnaud was ranked #81. These were some non-elite blue-chippers, and of course the Jays just managed to turn d’Arnaud into R.A. Dickey, in part.Gonzalez went from the Padres to the Red Sox in December 2010. At the time, Gonzalez was one of the more feared hitters in baseball, and he brought back Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and (eventually) Eric Patterson. Let’s just go ahead and skip the Eric Patterson part. BA ranked Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes the Red Sox’s #1, #3, and #6 prospects. Kelly was ranked #31 overall, and Rizzo was #75. In all three of these packages, we see highly-ranked prospects moving around. They’re just highly-ranked, non-elite prospects.
Click to expand...
Doesn't look that out of place for a reigning Cy Young champ with a very friendly 3 year deal. If there was no extension, I would agree with you. What would you expect d'Arnaud and Noah S. to fetch? Upton?
Click to expand...
It's difficult doing this by retrospect and none of these situations are identically the same, but d'Arnaud was the #17 overall prospect at the beginning of the year according to Baseball America, so going by that he's more highly rated than any of those prospects listed above; and the return in Dickey is far older and has far less of a track record than all of those high-profile players. I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad deal, I'm just saying I would have thought AA could have got a deal done without having to give up as much as he did.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Time Kibitzer said:
'Cliff Clavin said:
'Parmcat said:
No chat about the pending Dickey deal?Seem to maybe be giving up a tad too much.....
Click to expand...
:shrug: I like it.Giving up a catching prospect and a pitcher who hasn't even played in High-A yet. How many prospects like Noah (because I can't spell his last name) completely flame out? I have no idea, but I'm guessing it is a pretty high rate. The Jays still have a plethora of arms in the system. The door is open for the Jays, time to move. They did a great job of stocking the farm system so they could pull off moves like this.
Click to expand...
I can understand that, I just thought AA would have been able to get a better deal than trading away the team's top 2 prospects.
Click to expand...
A recent Fangraphs article compares it to deals like Halladay, Gonzalez and Santana
We can look at some other recent trades involving high-profile players and contract-extension windows. The three that immediately come to mind are the Johan Santana trade to the Mets, the Roy Halladay trade to the Phillies, and the Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Red Sox. All those guys technically had one year left, but then they reached longer-term agreements. Gonzalez didn’t officially reach an agreement until months after the fact, but the Red Sox came out of the negotiating window feeling confident a deal could be struck. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have agreed to send players to the Padres.Santana went from the Twins to the Mets in February 2008. At the time, Santana was an ace, and he brought back Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber. Hardly an impressive package in retrospect, but Baseball America ranked those guys the Mets’ #2, #3, #4, and #7 prospects. Guerra was ranked #35 overall. Gomez came in at #52, and Mulvey had just pitched well as a starter in double-A. That wasn’t a bad haul for the Twins; it just didn’t work out for the Twins.Halladay went from the Blue Jays to the Phillies in December 2009. At the time, Halladay was an ace, and he brought back Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and a certain Travis d’Arnaud. The Jays probably haven’t gotten out of that what they were hoping for, but BA ranked those players the Phillies’ #2, #3, and #4 prospects. Drabek was ranked #25 overall, Taylor was ranked #29, and d’Arnaud was ranked #81. These were some non-elite blue-chippers, and of course the Jays just managed to turn d’Arnaud into R.A. Dickey, in part.Gonzalez went from the Padres to the Red Sox in December 2010. At the time, Gonzalez was one of the more feared hitters in baseball, and he brought back Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and (eventually) Eric Patterson. Let’s just go ahead and skip the Eric Patterson part. BA ranked Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes the Red Sox’s #1, #3, and #6 prospects. Kelly was ranked #31 overall, and Rizzo was #75. In all three of these packages, we see highly-ranked prospects moving around. They’re just highly-ranked, non-elite prospects.
Click to expand...
Doesn't look that out of place for a reigning Cy Young champ with a very friendly 3 year deal. If there was no extension, I would agree with you. What would you expect d'Arnaud and Noah S. to fetch? Upton?
Click to expand...
It's difficult doing this by retrospect and none of these situations are identically the same, but d'Arnaud was the #17 overall prospect at the beginning of the year according to Baseball America, so going by that he's more highly rated than any of those prospects listed above; and the return in Dickey is far older and has far less of a track record than all of those high-profile players. I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad deal, I'm just saying I would have thought AA could have got a deal done without having to give up as much as he did.
Click to expand...
Maybe. I'm not that versed in what a prospects value is compared to a MLB player. Could you give some examples of who you think they could have got for that package? I see it as trading a top catching prospect and a young pitcher who is probably not better than a 20% chance to be a top of the rotation starter for a Cy Young pitcher who could put the Jays over the top. As constructed, the Jays will be plenty fine with JPA hitting 20+ hrs a year. He'll probably be one of the better #8/9 hitters in the league. The rotation needed help in a bad way. MorrowBuehrle (sp?)RomeroJohnsonHapp...Then what? Who is getting plugged in when one those guys inevitably goes down? What do you do when you got a guy down and Romero continues to be his craptacular self? Drabek and Hutch can't be counted on, neither can McGowan. Note: I could very well be forgetting someone else.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TripItUp
My 12 Team H2H Points League Draft w/Commentary
Replies
6
Views
235
Gally
G
Bogart
The End of Baseball's Major Milestones?
Replies
7
Views
585
Tonycarpenter
Tonycarpenter
Tonycarpenter
Dynasty Baseball League : I don't know what I'm doing
Replies
10
Views
722
Gally
G

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top