***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

Gonna be interesting to see what happens now that defensive coordinators will be preparing for him as a serious threat.

This offense is just impossible to shut down. You can't double everyone.

 

[The Jerk]

Gonna be interesting to see what happens now that defensive coordinators will be preparing for him as a serious threat.

This offense is just impossible to shut down. You can't double everyone.

Both good points, but the second one helps to mitigate the first.

Given that most owners either drafted him roughly 150 picks in... there's no way to see a 100+ yard 2TD night as anything but an encouraging sign. On a team that figures to throw 40+ TDs, having any of the principal receivers is a good thing.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Manning might throw for 50 TDs this year. Seriously.

 

[Raider Nation]

Gonna be interesting to see what happens now that defensive coordinators will be preparing for him as a serious threat.

This offense is just impossible to shut down. You can't double everyone.

Both good points, but the second one helps to mitigate the first.

Given that most owners either drafted him roughly 150 picks in... there's no way to see a 100+ yard 2TD night as anything but an encouraging sign. On a team that figures to throw 40+ TDs, having any of the principal receivers is a good thing.

Sure, but meaning that D-Thomas and Welker may be even more valuable than anyone could have imagined. There's no way you can leave the deep seam vacated now with Julius roaming around. That will leave plenty of opportunities for everyone else.

Decker, I'm not so sure about. If the first 3 quarters are any indication, he may be the odd man out.

 

[Raider Nation]

Brief bio on JT, plus pics of him playing college hoops.

 

[Buffaloes]

Tecmo Bowl Link

 

[The Jerk]

Gonna be interesting to see what happens now that defensive coordinators will be preparing for him as a serious threat.

This offense is just impossible to shut down. You can't double everyone.

Both good points, but the second one helps to mitigate the first.

Given that most owners either drafted him roughly 150 picks in... there's no way to see a 100+ yard 2TD night as anything but an encouraging sign. On a team that figures to throw 40+ TDs, having any of the principal receivers is a good thing.

Sure, but meaning that D-Thomas and Welker may be even more valuable than anyone could have imagined. There's no way you can leave the deep seam vacated now with Julius roaming around. That will leave plenty of opportunities for everyone else.

Decker, I'm not so sure about. If the first 3 quarters are any indication, he may be the odd man out.

I think having any of the DT, JT or WW trio looks pretty strong right now, and I'd think Decker will still have his days although I agree his stock may be the most suspect. Decker didn't look strong to me before tonight, but I confess it had less to do with my knowledge of JT and more to do with just thinking he was way too fortunate with TDs last season. In any case, saying that having any part of the Denver passing offense is desirable looks to be quite the understatement.

 

[Sup_Yo]

Well, first player Peyton mentions in the post-game interview... JT.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I think I'm done talking about J. Thomas. He does have the pedigree to sustain high TE output when giving the targets if anyone is still wondering. Welcome aboard!

 

[Run It Up]

I look forward to starting JT and DT every week until Cook gives me a reason to bench him.

I'm not sure this changes my opinion of his ceiling however, I think 70/800/8 is my conservative projections for him right now but as my TE2 ill take that all day.

I regret giving up on Welker at his ADP, biggest mistake ever.

 

[cstu]

Manning might throw for 50 TDs this year. Seriously.

That's less than 3 a game the rest of the season, very possible.

 

[Deamon]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

 

[Run It Up]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

Exciting development. This is a great life lesson for some people to realize - people do in fact change their opinions.

 

[karmarooster]

I don't think people change their opinions so much as their opinions get blown out of the water.

BTW a very reasonable 70/800/8 line for the year now means 65/690/6 over the next 15 games, which is averaging just 4.3 catches for 46 yards and 0.4 TDs per game going forward. He'll obviously cool down a bit, defenses will watch the tape, and Dressen will be back. But this guy looks like a revelation and a top 3 weapon, maybe top 2 weapon on this team. A top 2-3 weapon on a Manning offense that now looks very capable of going 5,000/50 should have more than 4 catches for 50 yards and a TD every other game.

In only one game we've seen that his ceiling is sky high. Ladies and Gents, meet the next elite TE.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

From the other thread...

Mannings career total TE production year-by-year...

45 612 5

74 853 6

77 977 6

79 1082 9

53 582 7

72 904 4

58 765 11

67 965 8

85 946 6

============= rule changes

107 1128 12

109 1130 7

120 1310 10

112 1029 8

============= hurt

99 985 7

 

[dahabi]

So can we all agree on his nickname being Orange Julius? Seems like an easy one.

 

[Mario Kart]

So can we all agree on his nickname being Orange Julius? Seems like an easy one.

Seems like a dumb one. Julius Thomas works just fine.

 

[dcgangstas]

So can we all agree on his nickname being Orange Julius? Seems like an easy one.

Or perhaps in honor of my all-time favorite basketball player, Julius "The Doctor" Thomas!!

 

[ImTheScientist]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

I was pretty damn accurate with that statement, and that was made back in August, 2011.

Spent an 11th round pick in the FPC on him this year....

 

[FDC]

So Tamme played what, 8 snaps?

 

[ebsteelers]

change the name of this thread to ALL REAL.

like the great Boobie Miles once said.

Reporter: Should we believe the hype?
Boobie Miles: What hype?
Reporter: The hype about Boobie Miles.
Boobie Miles: Now hype is something that's not for real. I'm all real.

 

[steveski]

Hope to see another big week out of him since hes my Gronk fill-in. Would make some real nice trade bait if he does.

 

[cstu]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

I was pretty damn accurate with that statement, and that was made back in August, 2011.

Spent an 11th round pick in the FPC on him this year....

You hop onto the bandwagon of every hot player and then pretend you liked them all along.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

I was pretty damn accurate with that statement, and that was made back in August, 2011.

Spent an 11th round pick in the FPC on him this year....

You hop onto the bandwagon of every hot player and then pretend you liked them all along.

Unfortunalty a lot of your statement is false information, I believe in monogamy.... Russell Wilson's bandwagon is the only "bandwagon" I am a member of.

In all other cases I prefer to evaluate fantasy football players on a year to year basis. Julius Thomas for example wasn't a good pick the previous two years...why? He didn't have the opportunity, wasn't healthy, and just needed to refine his game a bit more. If you want a few tips feel free to PM me and we can talk about it.

 

[monk]

What % of a waiver budget do you think this guy is worth?

 

[bill bates hits hard]

What % of a waiver budget do you think this guy is worth?

75%

 

[ImTheScientist]

What % of a waiver budget do you think this guy is worth?

I would say it depends a bit on league format, but I don't think you get him unless you spend 70%-85%.

 

[grtwhtsk]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

I have to agree here - I'd hate to bench a more tried and true TE in favor of Thomas next week only to find I've been "Ogletree'd"

Having said that, when it came to route running, agility, hands, body control and strength Thomas absolutely passed my eyeball test last night. As with most of these situations, it comes down to talent and opportunity. He clearly has the pass-catching talent. Will his average-at-best blocking and return of Dreesen (as well as future game planning by opposing d-coordinators) sap his opportunity? Remains to be seen.

Sure am glad to have him as my TE2 or TE3 on several rosters while I watch this all unfold

 

[Tackling Dummies]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

Temper away if you want to, he's a move TE and a massive mismatch in any secondary w/ the trio of WRs clearing out acres of open field in the seams.

 

[ebsteelers]

wait till some guy blows his wad on julius thomas if he isnt already drafted.. and he doesnt do anything the next few weeks.. then scraff him up

 

[Tackling Dummies]

wait till some guy blows his wad on julius thomas if he isnt already drafted.. and he doesnt do anything the next few weeks.. then scraff him up

Too late in dynasty & keeper leagues.

 

[Rebel Ted]

What does everyone think his trade value is right now? I would say at least a late 1st round pick in 2014 draft. Not that I am trading him but curious what the market would even be.

 

[Phantom Knight]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

Exciting development. This is a great life lesson for some people to realize - people do in fact change their opinions.

His quote was from August 2 of 2011. He said, "could be good in a few years". It is September 2013. I'd say he can still stand by his statement.

 

[theToes]

Is he worth picking up if it means dropping either Cameron or Finley?

 

[karmarooster]

Is he worth picking up if it means dropping either Cameron or Finley?

maybe after this weekend... Isn't there someone else? If only a 1TE league without flex eligibility, that's a hard proposition. Could either acquire him and trade him, or let another break the bank..

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

I have to agree here - I'd hate to bench a more tried and true TE in favor of Thomas next week only to find I've been "Ogletree'd"

Having said that, when it came to route running, agility, hands, body control and strength Thomas absolutely passed my eyeball test last night. As with most of these situations, it comes down to talent and opportunity. He clearly has the pass-catching talent. Will his average-at-best blocking and return of Dreesen (as well as future game planning by opposing d-coordinators) sap his opportunity? Remains to be seen.

Sure am glad to have him as my TE2 or TE3 on several rosters while I watch this all unfold

sometimes you get Ogleetree'd but sometimes you get Colston'd or Vicotr Cruz'd too.

 

[Rebel Ted]

Ogleetree is a bad comparison. The Broncos have been angling hard for a couple years now to make Julius Thomas their TE. They drafted him with high hopes and Manning has been talking him up all summer. This is a guy that the Broncos wanted to emerge and Manning knew could be an asset for him.

The Cowboys never had these same types of aspirations for Ogletree. He just happened to be the guy on opening night last year and who Romo found as he was going through his reads. Yeah he had a great game, but he was never a WR that that franchise had premeditated to be a focal point and major factor.

The only similarity is that they both had good games on the opening week of the NFL season. The difference is that JT's was years in the making by the front office and the coaches.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I understand the cool factor of starting a "HYPE Trayin" thread, but not everyone should get one. This guy played at Portland State...not exactly a football mecca. He's a developmental prospect and nothing more, could be good in a few years.

Hmmmm

Exciting development. This is a great life lesson for some people to realize - people do in fact change their opinions.

His quote was from August 2 of 2011. He said, "could be good in a few years". It is September 2013. I'd say he can still stand by his statement.

Pretty much made good on that statement. Actually didn't remember saying that, but happy it was bumped. Stroked the ego a bit.

 

[Longtucky Lemmings]

Ogleetree is a bad comparison. The Broncos have been angling hard for a couple years now to make Julius Thomas their TE. They drafted him with high hopes and Manning has been talking him up all summer. This is a guy that the Broncos wanted to emerge and Manning knew could be an asset for him.

The Cowboys never had these same types of aspirations for Ogletree. He just happened to be the guy on opening night last year and who Romo found as he was going through his reads. Yeah he had a great game, but he was never a WR that that franchise had premeditated to be a focal point and major factor.

The only similarity is that they both had good games on the opening week of the NFL season. The difference is that JT's was years in the making by the front office and the coaches.

Completely agree - circumstance and ability seem to suggest that the Thomas situation is far more likely to have continued success than Ogletree ever could have hoped for. I believe I went on to say that in my original post.

The point I was trying to make is there are still some circumstances that have not been fully vetted. Thomas seems to be an average-at-best inline blocker. Will that eventually cut into his snap count? His usage last night was a revelation, no doubt....as defenses get to view the tape from last night's game will they find ways to subdue his effectiveness in the passing game? Was the amount of targeting and the depth of the pass routes he ran last night indicative of his role this season? Or, was it more of a game-planning maneuver as the Bronco's anticipated their triple-headed WR monster receiving the bulk of the defensive attention?

It is interesting to note how Julius Thomas had only 1 catch in the second half while D Thomas blew up.

I'm definitely in the camp that is leaning toward believing the "hype" on Julius Thomas. I tried to target him in as many drafts as I could where I felt I could get him at a value (as my TE2 or TE3) and I think he will have one of the better TE season's in Denver since the Sharpe years.

All I'm saying is, life and football tends to be a game of "regression to the mean" and I'd like to see where on the spectrum of "normal" Thomas' utilization last night fits.

 

[BaBastage]

Hope to see another big week out of him since hes my Gronk fill-in. Would make some real nice trade bait if he does.

I think trading him now would be the best 'shark move'.

I'll freely admit that I missed on the hype... would have gladly added him at $2 in the subscriber contest but I missed this thread. Bad on me.

But his value will probably never be higher. If I had him as my TE2 and had needs elsewhere, I'd unload him to another owner who's likely to overpay based on one game.

Basically, he had one monster quarter (5 targets, 4 receptions, 2 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter.) In 3rd and 4th quarters combined he had one target, one reception, for 13 yards. Sounds to me like the Ravens started covering him, which opened up Welker and Demaryus Thomas for their monster 2nd halves.

So yeah, if I were an owner, I'd call it a week 1 windfall and sell high.

 

[EBF]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

 

[EBF]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

Lewis has played with garbage at QB his whole career. The specific comparison wasn't really my main point though.

My point was that I didn't come away from this game thinking Thomas looked like some kind of athletic monster. I was more struck by how wide open he was and how awfully Baltimore defended him. The TE landscape is pretty bleak and there's not much out there to prevent him from finishing top 5-6 this year. Peyton will find him all day if he's open. I'm not trying to say he's garbage or that he won't be $$$ this year.

As far as him being the next Gates or Graham though, I'm not a believer. I would sell if the hype starts pushing his perceived value to anywhere near that level.

 

[FDC]

Graham and Gronk comparisons are understandable considering the timing but not really fair

Graham and Gronk are in historically elite TE range in terms of upside. If JT can approach Gates numbers type upside it should still be highly valued. I can actually see Gates/Thomas athletic comparisons.

 

[DoubleG]

Graham and Gronk comparisons are understandable considering the timing but not really fair

Graham and Gronk are in historically elite TE range in terms of upside. If JT can approach Gates numbers type upside it should still be highly valued. I can actually see Gates/Thomas athletic comparisons.

The only problem with the Gates comparisons is that if Gates was just a rookie or 2nd (or 3rd) year guy now, he wouldn't be as dominant positionally speaking (I mean in terms of his value versus other TEs) ...ironically, because Gates himself helped push the position of TE to what it is. That is to say, there are many more "Gates-like" TEs (big, fast, mismatch-causing, move TEs) around now. Graham, Gronk, Finley, V.Davis, Rudolph, etc. While J.Thomas might be in that top tier or two soon, he is in a tier with 3-5 other TEs...at least. Gates WAS a tier (some would argue Gonzo was with him, but the point stands).

 

[[icon]]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

I'm not sure how number of catches per start is an effective metric for gauging athleticism?

 

[Judge Smails]

It just looks like Manning has his choice of who to throw to. 3 different routes can get him TD's. Based on what I saw of Thomas last night Manning has the best fit for receiving weapons ever seen. A Dez Bryant like beast in Thomas on the outside. A Wes Welker like quickster in Welker who can get open any time over the middle. Thomas an athletic presence over the middle and in the red zone who looks dominating, and a guy that also caught 13 TD's last year on the outside who is physical like Decker. (Though what a horrific game he had last night, swear one ball went right through his hands without being touched - it was like he held up a hula hoop). He won't throw for 7 TD's every game. Especially when the defense improves. But he's a lock for 3 TD's and 300+ yards most weeks. It's just a matter of who Manning feels like giving the TD too. But I wouldn't shy away from Thomas - he looked too good.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

I'm not sure how number of catches per start is an effective metric for gauging athleticism?

So there's absolutely no correlation between the number of longer (40+ yard in this case) passes caught and a players athletic ability? Of course, YAC amongst other things would be more telling but to imply that there's no correlation..

He seemed pretty athletic to me on that 44 yard catch and run.

 

[[icon]]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

I'm not sure how number of catches per start is an effective metric for gauging athleticism?

So there's absolutely no correlation between the number of longer (40+ yard in this case) passes caught and a players athletic ability? Of course, YAC amongst other things would be more telling but to imply that there's no correlation..

He seemed pretty athletic to me on that 44 yard catch and run.

I'm not saying there is absolutely no correlation. I'm just not sure that's the best metric as it involves a TON of external variables... Number of targets, Types of routes targeted, Defensive coverages faced, Quality of defenses faced, and most obviously an EXTREMELY small sample size in the case of Julius Thomas. You're welcome to make those sort of comparison in the face of that but I'm not comfortable doing so.

What I AM willing to do, given the absurdly small data set of actual game time (where IMO he looked good but moved akwardly at times).... and look at something fairly standardized: NFL Combine data. Now unfortunately we don't have combine data for Gronk but here's a comparison of Graham and Thomas:

40yd Dash: 4.56 (graham) vs 4.68 (Thomas)

Vert Leap: 38.5" vs 35.5"

Broad Jump: 120" vs 111"

3 Cone Drill: 6.90 vs 6.96sec

60yd Shuttle: 11.76 vs 11.95sec

Height: 6'6" vs 6'5"

Reach: 35" vs 33"

Graham Notes:

STRENGTHS Graham has an outstanding combination of size and speed for the tight end position. A former basketball player, he shows impressive natural athleticism on the gridiron. Despite limited experience, he has capable hands to make a play in traffic. High-character guy. Possesses tremendous potential.

WEAKNESSES Graham lacks game experience with only one year of football under his belt. At this time, work ethic as a pure football player needs to improve. His toughness is in question as he still carries the basketball player label. Blocking tenacity and overall technique need polish and refinement.

Thomas Notes:

STRENGTHS Thomas possesses excellent size coupled with enough speed for the NFL. Displays some savvy and athleticism setting up defenders in his stem. Tough matchup for linebackers in man coverage. Has very good ball skills. Plucks and snatches away from frame and adjusts to poorly thrown ball. Can get up the seam for big plays.

WEAKNESSES Very limited football experience. Blocking is not adequate. Lacks the lower body power to get movement. Lacks the upper body power needed to sustain blocks. Very raw in pass protection. Displays hip stiffness cutting out of his stem. Still developing his awareness against zone coverage. Drops the occasional pass.

-

The numbers, combined with the scout analysis of the two players tell me two things. Thomas has very solid speed given his size, but isn't as fluid or naturally athletic as Graham (or Gronk IMO). Notice there are multiple knocks on Thomas' athleticism and they use words like enough and some.... whereas for Graham the knocks are on polish/toughness and they use words like tremendous, impressive, and outstanding describing his athleticism and potential?

Thomas looked very good last night but also looked akward and robotic at times. IMO his long catches had as much to do with Peyton identifying broken coverage as it did with him using his athleticism to get open and to gain YAC. I'm just not ready to put him in the same camp athletically as the elite tight ends. YMMV.