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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)

The concerns with him next year are:

a) Peyton is not likely to throw for 50+ touchdowns again, so touchdowns for almost every Bronco across the board will come down a tad.

b) Julius was not a yardage monster. In fact, he has under 50 receiving yards in 9 of his 13 games so far this year. It can be dangerous to spend a early round draft pick on a player who is so TD-dependent. Granted, 60-752 is still good, but I am just saying, if his touchdowns drop down from 12 to 7-9, he could be overvalued.

 
Julius Thomas: An even bigger red-zone threat in 2014


By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com
March 31, 2014 2:16 pm ET

Tight end Julius Thomas finished a distant fourth in Dave Richard's Twitter survey.

The question was, Which Bronco will you draft first in Fantasy football? Demaryius Thomas ran away with it at 46 percent, followed by Peyton Manning (26 percent), Montee Ball (22 percent) and Julius Thomas (6 percent). That wasn't a knock on Julius Thomas, just a snapshot of where he stands in the Broncos' Fantasy hierarchy.

Julius Thomas went undrafted in many leagues last year only to finish as the No. 3 Fantasy tight end. The 6-5, 250-pound Portland State product caught 12 touchdown passes despite missing two regular-season games.

What can we expect in 2014? Bigger things. Thomas drew 17 red-zone targets last year, tied for sixth among TEs. Look for that number to rise.

Eric Decker, the 6-3, 217-pound red-zone magnet, is gone. His 23 red-zone targets, which tied for second in the NFL, have to go somewhere. They're not all going to Decker's replacement, 5-foot-11 Emmanuel Sanders. Wes Welker can't see any more than the 23 red-zone looks he got last year.

So Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas (19 red-zone targets) should be the main beneficiaries. They've got the size, and they've got Manning's trust. Julius Thomas caught 14 of those 17 targets last year for 112 yards and eight touchdowns. He makes them count.

Of course, Denver might not need to score as much thanks to defensive upgrades. But Julius Thomas remains an excellent bet for double-digit touchdowns. Richard and Jamey Eisenberg rank him No. 2 among tight ends, with Nathan Zegura placing him third.
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Rotoworld:

Julius Thomas - TE - Broncos

Julius Thomas said he'll be used "a lot more creatively" this season.

It's easy to forget that Thomas played just one season of college football at Portland State and entered last season with one catch in two NFL seasons. He's still a developing prospect despite going off for 65-788-12 last season. "I think there are a lot of things that our offense wanted to do with me, but you can only learn so much in one year," he said. Now entering his second year as a starter, Thomas will be asked to expand his route tree and help compensate for the loss of Eric Decker -- especially in the red zone. Another 12-15 touchdowns for Orange Julius is well within reach.

Source: Foxsports.com

Jul 2 - 9:31 AM
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I was lucky to have J. Thomas in my dynasty league. But I doubt he will be top his productivity last year. No doubt he will be a top TE this season, but a 12 TDs season is not easy to come by.

 
ffgiant said:
I was lucky to have J. Thomas in my dynasty league. But I doubt he will be top his productivity last year. No doubt he will be a top TE this season, but a 12 TDs season is not easy to come by.
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his yardage and catches can easily increase though, TDs are voilate numbers and unpredictable. I would expect him to get at least 8 if healthy

 
ffgiant said:
I was lucky to have J. Thomas in my dynasty league. But I doubt he will be top his productivity last year. No doubt he will be a top TE this season, but a 12 TDs season is not easy to come by.
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It's only happened just 11 times in history. Vernon Davis is the only player to have done it twice. Four other guys conceivably could have made it if they'd played 16 games- Gates had 10 TDs in 10 games in 2010, Gronk had 11 in 11 games in 2012, Jerry Reichow had 11 in 14 games back in the '60s, Dave Casper had 10 in 13 games back in 1976, and Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez both had seasons of 11 in 15 games. Including some of those seasons lets Gates and Gronk join Vernon Davis on the short list of TEs to put up massive TD totals in two different seasons.

On the flip-side, three of times came last season alone (Julius, Vernon, and Jimmy), and the top 5 TD-per-game seasons in history have all come in the last four years. So clearly there's some shifting usage patterns at play.

Julius could certainly hit the 12 TD mark again next year, but it's a very, very high threshold, and it should not be taken for granted as a foregone conclusion.

 
Julius, Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham both had a very high percentage of their catches go for TDs-north of 18% IIRC. Graham's was around 10 or 11% in both the prior 2 years, I don't know what Davis' was and Julius had no real previous work to look at.

TD rates that high are traditionally very difficult to replicate. Of course Graham can still be TE1 if his rate drops by 30%. I loved Vernon Davis last year but will be avoiding this year. I don't know how think about Julius Thomas yet.

 
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Steed said:
6'0" Marvin Harrison had an 8 year stretch of double digit tds, it's not crazy for Julius to get 12 again
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Okay, but Harrison was always THE number 1 receiving option; Julius Thomas is not. Thomas might very well break double digit scores again, but I think him dropping down to around 8 is more realistic to expect, especially since there is no way Manning will throw 50+ again this year. Hell, I am keeping him for less than 10 bucks in one of my keepers, which I am ecstatic about, but I am keeping my expectations realistic.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Steed said:
6'0" Marvin Harrison had an 8 year stretch of double digit tds, it's not crazy for Julius to get 12 again
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Okay, but Harrison was always THE number 1 receiving option; Julius Thomas is not. Thomas might very well break double digit scores again, but I think him dropping down to around 8 is more realistic to expect, especially since there is no way Manning will throw 50+ again this year. Hell, I am keeping him for less than 10 bucks in one of my keepers, which I am ecstatic about, but I am keeping my expectations realistic.
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JT also missed 2 games while scoring 12 last season.

Maybe he plays all 16.

 
I'll take the over on 8. Welker had a really high TD rate (career high in only 13 games) that won't likely be replicated. Decker is gone and I don't expect Sanders to hit more than 7 TDs (4 less than decker). Ball won't likely hit 5 like Moreno had. Even with Manning more likely to hit about 45 TDs this year it's pretty easy to see JT with double digit (if not 12 or more TDs). Manning down 11. Welker down 2, Sanders down 4 vs Decker, Ball down 3 vs Moreno, DT down 2. JT =12

 
It's pretty amazing that the Broncos have had only three guys catch touchdown passes, of which Julius Thomas has 60% of them, and not a single defensive coordinator has yet thought that maybe they should double cover him in the redzone.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
It's pretty amazing that the Broncos have had only three guys catch touchdown passes, of which Julius Thomas has 60% of them, and not a single defensive coordinator has yet thought that maybe they should double cover him in the redzone.
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It's useless doubling him. Manning will find the weak spot.
 
Ilov80s said:
He's the most efficient player in the league. Guy just knows how to score TDs. Manning knows how to take down Tom Brady records
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Upgrading my prediction of Manning to Thomas beating the Brady to Gronk TD record.

New prediction: Manning takes out 2 birds with one stone and not only takes down Brady to Gronk but also the Brady to Moss single season TD record. This stat ho can't win super Bowls but he does want regular season records. Current pace is just over 27 TDs.

 
Ilov80s said:
FreeBaGeL said:
It's pretty amazing that the Broncos have had only three guys catch touchdown passes, of which Julius Thomas has 60% of them, and not a single defensive coordinator has yet thought that maybe they should double cover him in the redzone.
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It's useless doubling him. Manning will find the weak spot.
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Well, that would be fine. Make him throw Tds to Bubba and some guy nobody knows..Or, hey, maybe even Welker or a Rb. But it's almost borderline inconceivable that every single week, Peyton Manning goes out there with that big ol "aw shucks" face of his and keeps running the same plays to the same guys.

Yeah, I don't have Manning in fantasy. LOL...But seriously, when did teams just stop taking away one element of a game from their opponents? It used to be "we take away your run game so you have to throw" or "we take away your best receiver and try our luck". These days it's like "Please beat us down and make us look incompetent by doing the exact same thing you have been doing the past two years. We don't want to look like we actually tried to plan for this game.

HA. Its just SO absurd you have to laugh, whether you are on the good or bad side of it in fantasy...Heck, even if you don't play fantasy...you have to watch this and just wonder how this is just copy and past, week after week, year after year.

 
Rotoworld:

Julius Thomas secured four-of-six targets for 27 yards in the Broncos' Week 7 win over the 49ers.

It's the first time Thomas has been held out of the end-zone this season. His six targets were behind only Demaryius Thomas. All four of Peyton Manning's touchdowns went to receivers this week. Thomas will look to get back on track against the Chargers on Thursday night.


Oct 20 - 1:24 AM
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i dunno, id send out offers. i think hes still the 2nd or 3rd best te going forward. some ppl might be fed up with him and wiling to toss him.

 
cvnpoka said:
i dunno, id send out offers. i think hes still the 2nd or 3rd best te going forward. some ppl might be fed up with him and wiling to toss him.
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???

doesn't he lead the league in TD catches? who is going to be fed up with that? I guess you can try to buy low, but who is selling?

 
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Young 8 said:
Did he urinate on Peyton's locker or something ??
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i dunno, guys are posting stuff like this and pictures of train wrecks. seems some ppl may be a bit upset with him. i think its pretty obv that some ppl think his value has declined so if you could get him for gates and filler, i think its worth looking into. or maybe a guy has holes elsewhere and would ship him for a rb or wr to fill that hole while taking a lesser te.

my point was that i dont think his value should be any lower. i still think he is the 3rd best te going forward behind gronk and olsen.

 
Don't know if it's been said, but Julius is averaging *only* 6 targets a game, and last night he had, yes, 6.

It's the TDs that has really been driving his value. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have...

 
but now with sanders there this year.there goes all his productivity.manning is trusting sanders more now 2nd half of the year.julius will be just an average te the rest of the year,watch and see.hope you guys enjoyed the first 6 games.he will be a blocker now to help manning not get sacked more.now gates in a go to te............what julius was last year,should have sold high......arggg

 
zamboni said:
Don't know if it's been said, but Julius is averaging *only* 6 targets a game, and last night he had, yes, 6.

It's the TDs that has really been driving his value. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have...
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This. Julius isn't being used any less now than he was a month ago; he's just not scoring lately, and did anybody really expect him to keep scoring every week? I think the last two weeks are just reminding people that when it comes to being a productive fantasy TE, he is very TD-dependent, cause he is not a guy who gets tons of targets every week. Since the start of last season, 4-49 is his BEST game in which he didn't score.

 
elitzer said:
but now with sanders there this year.there goes all his productivity.manning is trusting sanders more now 2nd half of the year.julius will be just an average te the rest of the year,watch and see.hope you guys enjoyed the first 6 games.he will be a blocker now to help manning not get sacked more.now gates in a go to te............what julius was last year,should have sold high......arggg
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What you've just said... is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul...

 
elitzer said:
but now with sanders there this year.there goes all his productivity.manning is trusting sanders more now 2nd half of the year.julius will be just an average te the rest of the year,watch and see.hope you guys enjoyed the first 6 games.he will be a blocker now to help manning not get sacked more.now gates in a go to te............what julius was last year,should have sold high......arggg
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Umm Sanders just replaced Decker dumdum

 
This is interesting

Rotowire

Thomas has been used in the backfield for pass protection over the last three weeks, as running back Ronnie Hillman continues to struggle against oncoming blitzes, which has limited Thomas's production in the passing game, the Denver Post reports.

 
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