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***Official LA Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Thread*** (1 Viewer)

If they had kicked it deep they could not go for it on 4th they would have to punt.

Put that in coaches are idiots thread you kick onside kick with 3 timeouts when it is like 2% chance

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
Seems like Conner gets dinged every game 
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This one can be laid at the feet of an "intent-to-injure" action by Thomas Davis, twisting his leg while holding him in midair.

Not really reflective of injury-proneness tonight, although he does seem to get dinged a good bit.

 
(rapidly searches for the 'post every time a coach does something stupid' thread)

 
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Arodin said:
This one can be laid at the feet of an "intent-to-injure" action by Thomas Davis, twisting his leg while holding him in midair.

Not really reflective of injury-proneness tonight, although he does seem to get dinged a good bit.
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Missed that 

Saw the hard hit to his legs, figured that was it

 
cday said:
disagree 100%

defense is gassed, go win the game with a FG attempt or run (preferable).  punting has to be the lowest win % option
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I disagree.  It's a probability excerise.  The odds of the Chargers scoring a TD in a scenario where they have around a minute to go (pinned deep in their end) and no timeouts is pretty rare.  If they stuff the steelers on 4th down (with a 3rd string QB and backup RB), they have more than a fighting chance.  No reason at all to go for it IMO.  

 
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fred_1_15301 said:
I disagree.  It's a probability game.  The odds of the Chargers scoring a TD in a scenario where they have around a minute to go and no timeouts is pretty rare.  If they stuff the steelers on 4th down (with a 3rd string QB and backup RB), they have more than a fighting chance.  No reason at all to go for it IMO.  
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Agreed.  Punting it was the correct call.  Pinning them at the 1 was an awesome bonus.

 
fred_1_15301 said:
I disagree.  It's a probability game.  The odds of the Chargers scoring a TD in a scenario where they have around a minute to go and no timeouts is pretty rare.  If they stuff the steelers on 4th down (with a 3rd string QB and backup RB), they have more than a fighting chance.  No reason at all to go for it IMO.  
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I agree it's a probability game, but with that Steelers defense / inability to cover tight ends / on the field for the game, I don't like the punt.  Not a guarantee you get them to start at the 1 either.

Wish they would have those stats ready and put them up there, as I'm curious to know what the actual percentages are -- where's next gen stats when you really want them.  

 
fred_1_15301 said:
I disagree.  It's a probability game.  The odds of the Chargers scoring a TD in a scenario where they have around a minute to go and no timeouts is pretty rare.  If they stuff the steelers on 4th down (with a 3rd string QB and backup RB), they have more than a fighting chance.  No reason at all to go for it IMO.  
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Yep! Chance they can go 99 yards in 1:30 with no timeouts was very low

 
cday said:
I agree it's a probability game, but with that Steelers defense / inability to cover tight ends / on the field for the game, I don't like the punt.  Not a guarantee you get them to start at the 1 either.

Wish they would have those stats ready and put them up there, as I'm curious to know what the actual percentages are -- where's next gen stats when you really want them.  
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Would be cool to know the stats...maybe don't want to make the coaches look bad?

 
cday said:
I agree it's a probability game, but with that Steelers defense / inability to cover tight ends / on the field for the game, I don't like the punt.  Not a guarantee you get them to start at the 1 either.

Wish they would have those stats ready and put them up there, as I'm curious to know what the actual percentages are -- where's next gen stats when you really want them.  
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Yup pinning them at the 1 is rare.  But I think even if the Chargers started within their own 10-15, it's extremely unlikely that they win that game (with less than a minute and no timeouts).  

 
fred_1_15301 said:
If the Steelers lose this game, people will blame Tomlin (and I'm a big critic of Tomlin).  He did a great job today IMO.
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I think he's done a great job for the last month.  Seems like he does his best coaching from a "getting the team ready to play" standpoint when expectations are low.  2-2 without Ben now, with the losses being narrow ones to the 5-0 49ers and 4-2 Ravens.  

 
PennStater77 said:
It worked out, but you controlled the line, Snell can get you a yard.
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And what if he doesn't?  Isn't the higher probability play to just punt and pin them down to the 10 or 15?  Can they drive 85 to 90 yards with no timeouts against a pretty good defense?  I think the odds are low.

 
cday said:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/11/two-minute-drill.html

So maybe a 10-30% chance with the punt?  Say 20% average.  Honestly surprised it's that low, but I think you have to tweak the odds a bit with an experienced QB like Rivers, a gassed defense, etc.. probably more like 30-40% imho.  but yeah, may have been the right call to punt, guessing a 4th and 1 is 50/50ish.
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Does that link take into account that they had 0 timeouts?  That's a huge factor IMO.  

 
fred_1_15301 said:
Does that link take into account that they had 0 timeouts?  That's a huge factor IMO.  
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doesn't look like it, and i agree.  did some more googling and I can't believe this isn't an easy findable stat, or one that's semi-common knowledge now (regardless of timeouts, at least we'd have an idea) given how big analytics is getting.

 
cday said:
doesn't look like it, and i agree.  did some more googling and I can't believe this isn't an easy findable stat, or one that's semi-common knowledge now (regardless of timeouts, at least we'd have an idea) given how big analytics is getting.
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It's so obvious that punting is correct nobody bothered to show the math online ;)

 
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