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*** Official NCAA Tourney - Tell us about your team thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jayrod
- Start date
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I can write some up later on Buffalo and St. Bonaventure.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Purdue folks, what's the injury status of Vincent Edwards? How close to 100% is he expected to be?
Worm
slimy ninja
NC State (21-11, 11-7 ACC)
Roster
PG Markell Johnson, SO - Quietly led the ACC in assists per game as well as total assists while missing a few weeks of the season. True assist first PG who can also shoot and has athleticism to drive the lane. Average to decent defensively.
SG Braxton Beverly, FR - Shooter. Can run point, ball handle. Tough kid, but liability defensively as he's only 6' tall (on a tall day).
SF Allerik Freeman, RS SR - Playmaker. Can get crazy hot from 3 or go full brick city. Can create his own shot.
PF Torin Dorn, JR - Upperclassmen team leader. Glue guy. Plays the 4 in State's small lineup and gets the dirty rebounds even though he's only 6'5". Can shoot if needed, drive the lane.
C Omer Yurtseven, SO - Stretch 4 type who plays center. Can shoot the 3 if left alone (>50% on the year with 43 attempted). Although he's 7' tall he's not great defensively and has trouble with physical bigs.
Reserves:
G Sam Hunt, RS SR - Sniper, loves the corner 3. At one point in ACC play made 9 in a row and 14 of 18 3's over a few games.
G Lavar Batts, FR - Not much of a contributor offensively but is State's best lock down defender. Doesn't get a lot of PT.
F Malik Abu, SR - Senior forward who has regressed beyond belief. Walking turnover, fouling machine. Opposing fans should cheer when he comes in the game.
F Lennard Freeman, SR - Tough kid who has fought through injuries, doesn't do anything great or terrible.
Team Strengths
This team was picked 12th in the ACC preseason and ended up tied for 3rd. They really are playing with house money in Coach Keatts first year, and I don't anticipate them feeling any pressure when they tip off against Seton Hall. They have gotten better throughout the season for the most part, and they just don't give up.
Go Pack!
Roster
PG Markell Johnson, SO - Quietly led the ACC in assists per game as well as total assists while missing a few weeks of the season. True assist first PG who can also shoot and has athleticism to drive the lane. Average to decent defensively.
SG Braxton Beverly, FR - Shooter. Can run point, ball handle. Tough kid, but liability defensively as he's only 6' tall (on a tall day).
SF Allerik Freeman, RS SR - Playmaker. Can get crazy hot from 3 or go full brick city. Can create his own shot.
PF Torin Dorn, JR - Upperclassmen team leader. Glue guy. Plays the 4 in State's small lineup and gets the dirty rebounds even though he's only 6'5". Can shoot if needed, drive the lane.
C Omer Yurtseven, SO - Stretch 4 type who plays center. Can shoot the 3 if left alone (>50% on the year with 43 attempted). Although he's 7' tall he's not great defensively and has trouble with physical bigs.
Reserves:
G Sam Hunt, RS SR - Sniper, loves the corner 3. At one point in ACC play made 9 in a row and 14 of 18 3's over a few games.
G Lavar Batts, FR - Not much of a contributor offensively but is State's best lock down defender. Doesn't get a lot of PT.
F Malik Abu, SR - Senior forward who has regressed beyond belief. Walking turnover, fouling machine. Opposing fans should cheer when he comes in the game.
F Lennard Freeman, SR - Tough kid who has fought through injuries, doesn't do anything great or terrible.
Team Strengths
- Shooting the 3 - When State is on, they are on. Went 15-30 from 3 to beat UNC @ UNC (Freeman was 7-7, see: crazy hot). There have been a few other games that State has won via the three ball. Hunt is almost automatic from the corner, and all five guys can shoot the three in the small ball starting lineup. Generally State doesn't force the 3, it's not a run and gun type offense, but they get a lot of open 3's off the pick and roll and dribble drive.
- Conditioning - State presses at times, with the goal that they are going to wear you down and be the fresher team at the end of the game. Their overall defensive efficiency is not great, but they can buckle down at times and really disrupt the passing lanes.
- Playmakers - Freeman, Dorn, and to a lesser extend Markell Johnson, have become fantastic playmakers for State. They never hang their heads and just get tough buckets when the team needs it. State has become a very tough team to "put away"
- Rebounding - None of our bigs are great (or even good) rebounders. Torin Dorn was second in rebounding at 6 a game and is only 6'5". Yurtseven will get his boards because of his height, but is not a fighter. State struggles with teams who can crash the glass with a couple bigs and get second opportunities.
- Half Court Defense - Was going to label this heading "defending the pick and roll", but really it can be more than that at times. State struggles with quick guards and smart, strong bigs, and can tend to give up a lot of easy buckets in the half court. They play a smaller lineup a lot, and when Beverly is on the court he can get abused by a bigger guard. Give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Struggle vs. the 3 ball at times.
- Consistency - The roster is a mish mash of players from the previous coaching regime, last minute recruits, and grad transfers. Keatts has had the team playing very well at times (wins over Arizona, Duke, @UNC, @Syracuse, FSU, etc), and they have struggled at others (loss to UNCG at home, @ Georgia Tech). Perfect example of the inconsistency was in the ACCT vs. Boston College. They had a tremendously horrible 1st half, and were down 18 or so. They didn't give up, came all the way back in the last 10 minutes of the second half, but couldn't quite close it out.
This team was picked 12th in the ACC preseason and ended up tied for 3rd. They really are playing with house money in Coach Keatts first year, and I don't anticipate them feeling any pressure when they tip off against Seton Hall. They have gotten better throughout the season for the most part, and they just don't give up.
Go Pack!
Jayrod
Footballguy
I'll throw one out to start.
8 seed in West - MISSOURI (20-12) tied for #4 in SEC (10-8)
First round opponent - 9 seed Florida State
Likely 2nd Round opponent would be 1 seed Xavier
RPI #44 - SOS ranked #31
The story of this team is around consensus top 5 NBA pick, Michael Porter, Jr. He played about 2 minutes at the start of the season, shut it down, and had a back surgery in November (a microdiscectomy of the L3-L4 spinal discs). He was cleared to play a couple of weeks ago and made his long awaited return in the SEC tourney's first round. Unfortunately Missouri lost that game to Georgia by 2 and they did not play well, so we didn't get to see the team play with Michael on the floor again. Porter Jr. came off the bench and led the team in shot attempts, but only went 5/17 with 12 pts and 8 rebounds. The team's offense looked disjointed and it seemed like everyone was just looking for him to take over.
The rest of the team is a quality squad and earned an 8 seed by going 5-6 vs the RPI top 50. They have some good size and length, two good perimeter scorers (Robertson & Barnett) and can be good on defense. However, they have a new head coach, are young and streaky and are now trying to learn how to play with their most talented player on the floor. The aforementioned guards are the leading scorers and Jontay Porter is the only other player averaging double figures. Jontay is also the leading rebounder.
Cuonzo Martin has had mixed results in the tourney as a head coach. In 2014 with Tennessee, he made it to the sweet 16 after having to win a play in game (as an 11 seed). However, his 2016 run at Cal he was upset by Hawaii in the 1st round as a 4 seed. His move to Mizzou was met with a lot of fanfare over the quality of recruits he was bringing in, highlighted by Porter, Jr. and his younger brother Jontay (who reclassified in order to make himself eligible for college this season). There wasn't a lot left before he got there and making this kind of run in his first year has created a lot of buzz around the state. Porter, Jr. would be foolish not to bolt for the NBA, so this year could be their best for a while as I don't see them landing as great a player as him again anytime soon.
This is a team that could either get beat in the first round or make a run to the elite-8. They have the talent to put it together and make some noise, plus I believe they are battle tested from playing in the extremely deep SEC. They lost some close games in the SEC, including some blown leads, and were only blown out 3 times all season (@Utah in Nov, vs Auburn & @KY). They have a legit chance to win against literally anyone in the country.
Achilles heels are foul trouble and streaky shooting. If their bigs can stay on the floor and they knock down some shots they are very formidable and deep. With Porter on the floor, they have the talent to run with anyone.
M-I-Z!!!!
ETA: Barnett, the team's 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder has been suspended for the first game of the tourney for a DWI. He is a senior and a key member of the backcourt tandem. They are still able to beat FSU without him, but it will make it more difficult.
8 seed in West - MISSOURI (20-12) tied for #4 in SEC (10-8)
First round opponent - 9 seed Florida State
Likely 2nd Round opponent would be 1 seed Xavier
RPI #44 - SOS ranked #31
The story of this team is around consensus top 5 NBA pick, Michael Porter, Jr. He played about 2 minutes at the start of the season, shut it down, and had a back surgery in November (a microdiscectomy of the L3-L4 spinal discs). He was cleared to play a couple of weeks ago and made his long awaited return in the SEC tourney's first round. Unfortunately Missouri lost that game to Georgia by 2 and they did not play well, so we didn't get to see the team play with Michael on the floor again. Porter Jr. came off the bench and led the team in shot attempts, but only went 5/17 with 12 pts and 8 rebounds. The team's offense looked disjointed and it seemed like everyone was just looking for him to take over.
The rest of the team is a quality squad and earned an 8 seed by going 5-6 vs the RPI top 50. They have some good size and length, two good perimeter scorers (Robertson & Barnett) and can be good on defense. However, they have a new head coach, are young and streaky and are now trying to learn how to play with their most talented player on the floor. The aforementioned guards are the leading scorers and Jontay Porter is the only other player averaging double figures. Jontay is also the leading rebounder.
Cuonzo Martin has had mixed results in the tourney as a head coach. In 2014 with Tennessee, he made it to the sweet 16 after having to win a play in game (as an 11 seed). However, his 2016 run at Cal he was upset by Hawaii in the 1st round as a 4 seed. His move to Mizzou was met with a lot of fanfare over the quality of recruits he was bringing in, highlighted by Porter, Jr. and his younger brother Jontay (who reclassified in order to make himself eligible for college this season). There wasn't a lot left before he got there and making this kind of run in his first year has created a lot of buzz around the state. Porter, Jr. would be foolish not to bolt for the NBA, so this year could be their best for a while as I don't see them landing as great a player as him again anytime soon.
This is a team that could either get beat in the first round or make a run to the elite-8. They have the talent to put it together and make some noise, plus I believe they are battle tested from playing in the extremely deep SEC. They lost some close games in the SEC, including some blown leads, and were only blown out 3 times all season (@Utah in Nov, vs Auburn & @KY). They have a legit chance to win against literally anyone in the country.
Achilles heels are foul trouble and streaky shooting. If their bigs can stay on the floor and they knock down some shots they are very formidable and deep. With Porter on the floor, they have the talent to run with anyone.
M-I-Z!!!!
ETA: Barnett, the team's 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder has been suspended for the first game of the tourney for a DWI. He is a senior and a key member of the backcourt tandem. They are still able to beat FSU without him, but it will make it more difficult.
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ChiefD
Footballguy
Don't forget - Jordan Barnett is suspended for the first NCAA game due to getting a DUI this weekend.
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Apparently still has some soreness. I don't think he's going to be 100% - maybe 90-ish. Will probably affect his explosiveness somewhat.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I hadn't heard that. He is a senior and now may miss his only career NCAA tourney game. He is both their 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder.
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cheese
Footballguy
Bearcats-
Offense... the most talented offensive lineup Cronin has ever had. All 5 guys can score, especially when Broome plays pg. The zone offense can be a problem at times but typically we can offensive rebound teams out of the zone.
Defense- it’s even better than you think. They are playing a faster pace finally and still nobody can score. They create turnovers and allow nothing at the rim. They do have weaknesses. If you can get in transition and sprint to the corner or find your spot UC gives up rhythm 3s. If you can somehow get the ball to the block to a dominant center he will probably score on Washington. This is obviously a concern with Ayton in the region.
The strengths though are extreme. If you’re a drive and dish team, GOOD LUCK. Guards won’t get penetration and even if they somehow get in the lane, they won’t score and probably will just get swallowed alive for a turnover. You have to have any plan besides a guard driving to the rim. I’ve seen some good ones try. Not happening.
Also big guys scoring on the block is only possible if you get them the ball. The ball pressure is insane and uc big guys get hands on passes.
Clark is a dominant rebounder and defender. He guards the 4 typically. On offense, he’s very efficient. He shoots a high percentage because he only takes wide open 3s and shots right at the rim. Great passer out of double team.
Washington is almost a stretch 5. He has an unorthodox shot but can hit 3s and score in a crowd. He is this year’s Cronin whipping boy for defense and rebounding but he’s talented enough to dominate in all phases at times.
Jacob Evans is the catalyst on offense. He’s in control, he makes shots, he doesn’t turn it over, and always with UC he’s the guy needed to bail them out if nobody shot the first 28 seconds. Currently hobbled w injury
Cumberland- 3 point gunner with good headfake blow-by, great in transition
Broome- instant offense pg off the bench. Might play majority of minutes
Jenifer- starting pg. really good on ball defense. Doesn’t turn it over. He’s tiny and doesn’t create his own shot ever.
I think it’s a team you can trust to not get upset. They basically weren’t challenged by a mediocre team all season. The D shows up every game. Whether than can really be good enough for final 4 and beyond depends on how they shoot, foul trouble (massive drop off if Evans or Clark come out) and like everyone else... matchups.
Offense... the most talented offensive lineup Cronin has ever had. All 5 guys can score, especially when Broome plays pg. The zone offense can be a problem at times but typically we can offensive rebound teams out of the zone.
Defense- it’s even better than you think. They are playing a faster pace finally and still nobody can score. They create turnovers and allow nothing at the rim. They do have weaknesses. If you can get in transition and sprint to the corner or find your spot UC gives up rhythm 3s. If you can somehow get the ball to the block to a dominant center he will probably score on Washington. This is obviously a concern with Ayton in the region.
The strengths though are extreme. If you’re a drive and dish team, GOOD LUCK. Guards won’t get penetration and even if they somehow get in the lane, they won’t score and probably will just get swallowed alive for a turnover. You have to have any plan besides a guard driving to the rim. I’ve seen some good ones try. Not happening.
Also big guys scoring on the block is only possible if you get them the ball. The ball pressure is insane and uc big guys get hands on passes.
Clark is a dominant rebounder and defender. He guards the 4 typically. On offense, he’s very efficient. He shoots a high percentage because he only takes wide open 3s and shots right at the rim. Great passer out of double team.
Washington is almost a stretch 5. He has an unorthodox shot but can hit 3s and score in a crowd. He is this year’s Cronin whipping boy for defense and rebounding but he’s talented enough to dominate in all phases at times.
Jacob Evans is the catalyst on offense. He’s in control, he makes shots, he doesn’t turn it over, and always with UC he’s the guy needed to bail them out if nobody shot the first 28 seconds. Currently hobbled w injury
Cumberland- 3 point gunner with good headfake blow-by, great in transition
Broome- instant offense pg off the bench. Might play majority of minutes
Jenifer- starting pg. really good on ball defense. Doesn’t turn it over. He’s tiny and doesn’t create his own shot ever.
I think it’s a team you can trust to not get upset. They basically weren’t challenged by a mediocre team all season. The D shows up every game. Whether than can really be good enough for final 4 and beyond depends on how they shoot, foul trouble (massive drop off if Evans or Clark come out) and like everyone else... matchups.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah, what a bummer. I'm a Jayhawk fan, but it's always more fun in KC when all the local teams are doing well. After what poor Kim Anderson did to that team it's been fun to watch them get relevant again.
But I agree with you - if they can get out of this first round game they could be dangerous.
Worm
slimy ninja
I cringe when I think about how the previous coaching regime at NC State didn't give a #### about recruiting Gary Clark. Hometown guy who (I believe) wanted to stay at home and the coach just completely blew him off. Look forward to watching Cinci in the tourney.
Edit - Also was always a Kyle Washington fan, hate that he transferred. Love his mean mug.
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Statorama
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
Michigan –
Starting Lineup –
- 28-7 (13-5); Big Ten Tournament Champs; #10 on KenPom
Starting Lineup –
- Zavier Simpson – He’s about 5’9” tall and can’t shoot to save his life. But even without that, he’s become the sparkplug for this team. He’s an absolute lock down defender and has developed his drive game where – somehow – he’s able to get his shots off in the lane without getting blocked. Turned into a heck of a player.
- Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman – Senior guard who plays like it. Very good three point shooter who can also go to the hole. And plays solid defense. Hard to rattle. Seen it all by now.
- Charles Matthews – Kentucky transfer. REALLY struggled toward the end of the season but seems to have gotten a little bit of his groove back. Very athletic and a very good defender. Not a great shooter but can get to the hole. Very turnover prone.
- Isaiah Livers – Freshman who can rebound a little and shoot a little. Actually plays less than his sub.
- Mo Wagner – The wunderkid. He allows M to play 5 out and makes them very hard to stop. He’s a very good 3 point shooter who can get to the hole against slower bigs. And he’s turned himself into a good defensive rebounder.
- Duncan Robinson – Senior plays more than Livers. Started the season cold but has turned it around. Excellent 3 point shooter who has – shockingly – turned himself into an average defender. He used to be horrible.
- Jordan Poole – freshman guard. Will shoot from anywhere, anytime. If he gets hot, watch out.
- John Teske – backup center. Not super athletic but quite good defensively. Solid backup.
- I mean, they are good. They play excellent defense which will keep them in every game. But …
- This is the worst shooting Beilein team I have seen at Michigan. That doesn’t mean they can’t get hot – they do sometimes. And when they do, they are REALLY hard to beat.
- If they make it to the Sweet 16, they will have a rematch with UNC. They lost at UNC by 15 early in the season. M is a lot better since then – but I reckon UNC is also.
- Houston is the potential 2nd round opponent and I’ve read a lot of people think they are really good. The problem they will have is Beilein’s offense is very difficult to defend – especially on short planning. So that’s a tough task for them.
- ETA: One thing I forgot. They are inexplicably a terrible free throw shooting time. Simpson and Matthews both shoot about 50%. As a result, Poole often subs in for Simpson at the end of games if they have the lead. This could, obviously, bite M in the ###.
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Scoresman
Footballguy
Gonzaga Bulldogs
You might remember last year's group that made it to the National Championship with lottery pick Zach Collins and the defensive mountain that was Przemek Karnowski. Well they're gone now and there were a lot of question marks with this team coming into the season, which led many experts to pick St. Mary's to rise up and finally unseat Gonzaga this year. Well that didn't happen. They play mostly an 8 player rotation with 4 good bigs. This team is more athletic than last year's team, including 6' 8 Rui Hachimura who has a ton of international experience and is probably the most fun player to watch I've seen on a Zags team. Another forward, Killian Tillie is playing red hot right now and is a also a 50% 3 point shooter. Defensively, the Zags are among the best in the nation at shooting percentage allowed, holding opponents to 43% 2 point shooting. If they have a weakness in this department, it's 3 point defense. A team that shoots hot from 3 can beat them.
Comparing this year's team to last year's team, this team is a lot more inconsistent at times, probably due to being a much younger team as well. They had a tendency to play down to their opponent at times. Starting point guard Josh Perkins has been a bit of a Jekyll/Hyde this year, looking amazing in some games, and outright dreadful in others.
It should be noted that earlier this season in OOC play, the Zags routed potential second round opponent Ohio State 86-59.
You might remember last year's group that made it to the National Championship with lottery pick Zach Collins and the defensive mountain that was Przemek Karnowski. Well they're gone now and there were a lot of question marks with this team coming into the season, which led many experts to pick St. Mary's to rise up and finally unseat Gonzaga this year. Well that didn't happen. They play mostly an 8 player rotation with 4 good bigs. This team is more athletic than last year's team, including 6' 8 Rui Hachimura who has a ton of international experience and is probably the most fun player to watch I've seen on a Zags team. Another forward, Killian Tillie is playing red hot right now and is a also a 50% 3 point shooter. Defensively, the Zags are among the best in the nation at shooting percentage allowed, holding opponents to 43% 2 point shooting. If they have a weakness in this department, it's 3 point defense. A team that shoots hot from 3 can beat them.
Comparing this year's team to last year's team, this team is a lot more inconsistent at times, probably due to being a much younger team as well. They had a tendency to play down to their opponent at times. Starting point guard Josh Perkins has been a bit of a Jekyll/Hyde this year, looking amazing in some games, and outright dreadful in others.
It should be noted that earlier this season in OOC play, the Zags routed potential second round opponent Ohio State 86-59.
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Purdue Boilermakers (28-6, 15-3) #2 Seed East Region
Purdue has all the ingredients to make a deep run in this tournament. They start 4 seniors and shoot 3's and FT's well.
7'2 Sr C Isaac Haas is a load on the block. He averages 15 a game with a variety of post moves, but is not a great rebounder or shot blocker. When he's on, he will foul out your entire front court. Good passer out of double teams. 76% FT shooter.
6'8 Sr F Vince Edwards was on pace for a top-2 B1G POY finish until he was derailed by illness and injury (ankle) the last month. Only missed 2 games but was visibly slowed. Averages 14/7/3, 39% 3pt, 84% FT. Great cutter and can get his own shot when necessary. If he is 100% they are as much a lock for the Elite 8 as anyone.
6'5 Sr G/F Dakota Mathias is their do-it-all guy. Averages 12/4/4, 46% 3pt, 82% FT, excellent passer and defender.
5'10 Sr PG PJ Thompson his job is to get them into the offense, protect the ball, and make open 3's. 44% 3pt, 85% FT. Averages less than 1 TO per game.
6'3 So G Carsen Edwards on a team full of seniors he has become the go to guy. Loves transition 3's and driving to the rim. The one guy who can consistently get his own shot. Has a 40-pt game this year at Illinois. Averages 18/4/3, 41% 3pt, 81% FT
They generally go 8-9 deep. 6'5 shooter Ryan Cline is another 40% 3pt guy. Their "energy guy" is 7'3 Fr Matt Haarms. Excellent shot blocker/alterer, decent rebounder, and good in the p-n-r on both ends. 6'7 Fr Nojel Eastern is the backup PG. Crazy athletic, lock down defender, can guard 1-4. Great rebounder. Not asked to do much offensively. Occasionally 6'8 walk on try-hard Grady Eifert gets some burn. Decent rebounder, not much else.
If their shooting is on they can beat anyone. Blitzed Arizona by 25 early in the year hitting 11 of 22 3's. When that's not working they look inside to Haas. Run into trouble when they get stagnant on offense or sloppy with the ball. Not a super athletic team or great rebounding team. Crazy long teams, especially guards, can give them trouble, but Eastern has been getting more minutes as a counter to that. Losses were by 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 9 (B1G title game).
Purdue has all the ingredients to make a deep run in this tournament. They start 4 seniors and shoot 3's and FT's well.
7'2 Sr C Isaac Haas is a load on the block. He averages 15 a game with a variety of post moves, but is not a great rebounder or shot blocker. When he's on, he will foul out your entire front court. Good passer out of double teams. 76% FT shooter.
6'8 Sr F Vince Edwards was on pace for a top-2 B1G POY finish until he was derailed by illness and injury (ankle) the last month. Only missed 2 games but was visibly slowed. Averages 14/7/3, 39% 3pt, 84% FT. Great cutter and can get his own shot when necessary. If he is 100% they are as much a lock for the Elite 8 as anyone.
6'5 Sr G/F Dakota Mathias is their do-it-all guy. Averages 12/4/4, 46% 3pt, 82% FT, excellent passer and defender.
5'10 Sr PG PJ Thompson his job is to get them into the offense, protect the ball, and make open 3's. 44% 3pt, 85% FT. Averages less than 1 TO per game.
6'3 So G Carsen Edwards on a team full of seniors he has become the go to guy. Loves transition 3's and driving to the rim. The one guy who can consistently get his own shot. Has a 40-pt game this year at Illinois. Averages 18/4/3, 41% 3pt, 81% FT
They generally go 8-9 deep. 6'5 shooter Ryan Cline is another 40% 3pt guy. Their "energy guy" is 7'3 Fr Matt Haarms. Excellent shot blocker/alterer, decent rebounder, and good in the p-n-r on both ends. 6'7 Fr Nojel Eastern is the backup PG. Crazy athletic, lock down defender, can guard 1-4. Great rebounder. Not asked to do much offensively. Occasionally 6'8 walk on try-hard Grady Eifert gets some burn. Decent rebounder, not much else.
If their shooting is on they can beat anyone. Blitzed Arizona by 25 early in the year hitting 11 of 22 3's. When that's not working they look inside to Haas. Run into trouble when they get stagnant on offense or sloppy with the ball. Not a super athletic team or great rebounding team. Crazy long teams, especially guards, can give them trouble, but Eastern has been getting more minutes as a counter to that. Losses were by 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 9 (B1G title game).
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Buffalo Bulls
26-8 (15-3 MAC), MAC champions
#13 seed in South region, first round vs. #4 seed Arizona, 9:40 PM Thursday
Season in Review:
Coach Nate Oats has taken a perennial top 3-4 team in the MAC and has them poised to really become a dominant conference force for years to come. The Bulls were a consensus preseason pick to win the MAC East but no one had them winning the conference. They took the conference by storm, opening 8-0 in MAC play before dropping a few down the stretch. All 5 of the Bulls non-conference losses were to tournament teams (Cincinnati [neutral], South Dakota State [neutral], vs. St Bonaventure, @ Syracuse and @ Texas A&M), and in 3 of those games (Bona, Cuse, and A&M) the Bulls were either leading or tied inside the final 4-minute media timeout before losing late. 2 of their conference losses involved them blowing double-digit leads inside the last 10 minutes; they had a very good shot at being either 17-1 or 18-0 in conference play. The Bulls enter the NCAAs on a 6-game win streak, and their last 8 wins have all been by double-digits.
Projected Starting 5
They need to play their own game. The Bulls run, all game. Frenetic pace, high-scoring team. They want to be in transition non-stop. Massinburg, Perkins, Harris, and Clark are all ~15-17 ppg scorers and all have deep range. If they are all clicking, all hitting their open shots, they could hang around in this game. The problem is that it's not common that they're all "on" at the same time. Harris had 27 and 22 in the first 2 rounds of the MAC tourney, and a quiet 10 in the final. Clark had 11 and 3 in the first 2 rounds, then 26 in the final. They need to all be on their game.
How they'll lose
Arizona's bigs eat the Bulls alive inside. Smart and Perkins get in foul trouble and McRae has to play more than like 5 minutes. 1-2 of the scorers go cold. The Bulls always have a cold stretch where they struggle to score for 4-5 minutes....if Arizona can capitalize, it's over. Or if the Bulls try to play a more standard half-court offense and play rigid and scared, playing right into Arizona's hands. UB struggles to shoot FTs at times, which could also hurt.
What'll actually happen
Bulls will stay alive and make some shots to keep it mildly close but will never actually challenge Arizona. Wildcats are too good and will end up winning by ~15 when all is said and done.
26-8 (15-3 MAC), MAC champions
#13 seed in South region, first round vs. #4 seed Arizona, 9:40 PM Thursday
Season in Review:
Coach Nate Oats has taken a perennial top 3-4 team in the MAC and has them poised to really become a dominant conference force for years to come. The Bulls were a consensus preseason pick to win the MAC East but no one had them winning the conference. They took the conference by storm, opening 8-0 in MAC play before dropping a few down the stretch. All 5 of the Bulls non-conference losses were to tournament teams (Cincinnati [neutral], South Dakota State [neutral], vs. St Bonaventure, @ Syracuse and @ Texas A&M), and in 3 of those games (Bona, Cuse, and A&M) the Bulls were either leading or tied inside the final 4-minute media timeout before losing late. 2 of their conference losses involved them blowing double-digit leads inside the last 10 minutes; they had a very good shot at being either 17-1 or 18-0 in conference play. The Bulls enter the NCAAs on a 6-game win streak, and their last 8 wins have all been by double-digits.
Projected Starting 5
- PG/SG Wes Clark (Sr) - Transfer from Mizzou who averaged 10 ppg his last two seasons there. Was ineligible for the first half of the season, including 3 of the non-conference losses. Has clearly become the veteran leader on this team despite only playing 1/2 of a season for UB. Single-handedly put the Bulls on his back in the MAC final, scoring 26 points and winning tournament MOP honors.
- PG Davonta Jordan (So) - IMO the weak link in the starting 5. Very good defender, probably the 2nd best defender on the team. Average ball-handler who won't score much. Shares PG duties with Clark.
- F Jeremy Harris (Jr) - one of the top JuCo prospects in the nation last season. Took him about a half a season to really find his stride in D-1 but has been probably the Bulls best overall player over the past 2 months. 6'7" swing forward with deep range. Will need to have a huge game if Bulls have any hope. Looks like The Weeknd.
- F CJ Massinburg (Jr) - Probably the Bulls best overall player. Leading scorer at 17 ppg and leading rebounder at 7.4 rpg. Experienced player, was a true freshman starter on the 15-16 team that made a run to the NCAAs and lost to Miami. Kinda does it all, he can shoot, he can rebound, can ballhandle in a pinch.
- C Ikenna Smart (Jr) - 6'10" dude who is in there for defense. Best shot-blocker on the team but doesn't do too much on offense.
- F Nick Perkins (Jr) - kinda unfair to have him on the bench as he's maybe the 2nd best player on the team. Big fella, 6'8" 250, who is a pure scorer. He and Smart rotate a little bit to stay fresh. Perkins has 25-foot range and is a very consistent scorer - 2nd on the team at 16.6 ppg. Hit 6 3s as a true freshman in the NCAAs against Miami a few years ago. I think he really starts on the bench just because they try to conserve his energy more than anything.
- G Dontay Caruthers (Jr) - best on-ball defender on the team and last year's MAC DPOY. Doesn't do much on offense but will play a lot of minutes. Wouldn't surprise me if he plays more than usual and shadows Trier on Thursday night.
- G Jayvon Graves (Fr) - true freshman and hopefully future star. Plays meaningful minutes and can handle PG if Jordan and Clark are out.
- F Montrell McRae (Jr) - 6'10" but offers very little other than size inside.
They need to play their own game. The Bulls run, all game. Frenetic pace, high-scoring team. They want to be in transition non-stop. Massinburg, Perkins, Harris, and Clark are all ~15-17 ppg scorers and all have deep range. If they are all clicking, all hitting their open shots, they could hang around in this game. The problem is that it's not common that they're all "on" at the same time. Harris had 27 and 22 in the first 2 rounds of the MAC tourney, and a quiet 10 in the final. Clark had 11 and 3 in the first 2 rounds, then 26 in the final. They need to all be on their game.
How they'll lose
Arizona's bigs eat the Bulls alive inside. Smart and Perkins get in foul trouble and McRae has to play more than like 5 minutes. 1-2 of the scorers go cold. The Bulls always have a cold stretch where they struggle to score for 4-5 minutes....if Arizona can capitalize, it's over. Or if the Bulls try to play a more standard half-court offense and play rigid and scared, playing right into Arizona's hands. UB struggles to shoot FTs at times, which could also hurt.
What'll actually happen
Bulls will stay alive and make some shots to keep it mildly close but will never actually challenge Arizona. Wildcats are too good and will end up winning by ~15 when all is said and done.
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Rirruto
Footballguy
Arkansas Razorbacks
They will make the Final Four or lose by 30 in the first round. You cannot and will not predict them. They start 3 senior guards.
Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford shoot over 40% from 3, and Barford can get to the hoop against anyone in the country. The team as a whole shoots north of 40% from 3. If they get hot, they cannot be beaten. They don't get hot often. They also can only play one good half at a time. If they get way down, don't lose faith and pound them on the 2nd half line. Anton Beard is the third senior guard. He can shoot sometimes but is better at getting into the paint. CJ Jones is a shooter to watch off the bench. He's waaaay streakier than Macon and Barford, but he can change an entire game by himself.
On the inside, they have lottery pick freshman Daniel Gafford. 6-11 and super duper athletic. Is better offensively than earlier in the season (meaning he can score in more ways than dunking) and has stayed out of foul trouble for the last several months.
The Hogs are weak at the 4. Another senior usually starter, Dustin Thomas, was kicked off the team a week or so ago. He played pretty good defense and rebounded well. He's a depth loss, though, as there's not a lot of difference between him and senior Arlando Cook and soph Adrio Bailey.
Prediction
I think Purdue is the most vulnerable 2 seed, but they aren't a great matchup for Arkansas. Arkansas can certainly lose to Butler, but I think they should win. When they've beaten good teams (most recently Florida and Auburn) it has been teams that didn't have or went away from the inside. Arkansas is going to be as good or better than anyone in the back court, so you really have to be better than them up front. That's usually pretty easy unless you 1. suck in the front court or 2. Dan Gafford plays out of his mind.
If this wasn't "my" team, I would pick them as the 7/10 over a 2 seed that happens every year. Their experienced back court, really good 3 point shooting, weird style of play that is difficult to prepare for (this is a better team than the one who had UNC beat in the Round of 32 last year), and one-and-done talent in the middle is exactly what I normally look for in a team I pick to make upsets.
But I know them well enough to have zero faith in that happening.
What will actually happen
Butler wins by 50
They will make the Final Four or lose by 30 in the first round. You cannot and will not predict them. They start 3 senior guards.
Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford shoot over 40% from 3, and Barford can get to the hoop against anyone in the country. The team as a whole shoots north of 40% from 3. If they get hot, they cannot be beaten. They don't get hot often. They also can only play one good half at a time. If they get way down, don't lose faith and pound them on the 2nd half line. Anton Beard is the third senior guard. He can shoot sometimes but is better at getting into the paint. CJ Jones is a shooter to watch off the bench. He's waaaay streakier than Macon and Barford, but he can change an entire game by himself.
On the inside, they have lottery pick freshman Daniel Gafford. 6-11 and super duper athletic. Is better offensively than earlier in the season (meaning he can score in more ways than dunking) and has stayed out of foul trouble for the last several months.
The Hogs are weak at the 4. Another senior usually starter, Dustin Thomas, was kicked off the team a week or so ago. He played pretty good defense and rebounded well. He's a depth loss, though, as there's not a lot of difference between him and senior Arlando Cook and soph Adrio Bailey.
Prediction
I think Purdue is the most vulnerable 2 seed, but they aren't a great matchup for Arkansas. Arkansas can certainly lose to Butler, but I think they should win. When they've beaten good teams (most recently Florida and Auburn) it has been teams that didn't have or went away from the inside. Arkansas is going to be as good or better than anyone in the back court, so you really have to be better than them up front. That's usually pretty easy unless you 1. suck in the front court or 2. Dan Gafford plays out of his mind.
If this wasn't "my" team, I would pick them as the 7/10 over a 2 seed that happens every year. Their experienced back court, really good 3 point shooting, weird style of play that is difficult to prepare for (this is a better team than the one who had UNC beat in the Round of 32 last year), and one-and-done talent in the middle is exactly what I normally look for in a team I pick to make upsets.
But I know them well enough to have zero faith in that happening.
What will actually happen
Butler wins by 50
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Kansas
THE Bruce Dickinson will surely be along shortly to write up a proper analysis, so I will do my best before he shows up with more cowbell.
Coaching:
Bill Self has one of the best weaves in America. Hands down, whoever was responsible for that blend of old vs new should have a small plaque in Self's Hall of Fame display. Never goes out of place, he can run his fingers through it with confidence, and the coloring is spot on.
Self can also coach basketball, but he's put on a few pounds over the last couple of years. His face seems to get redder and redder each year, but that could just be this year's spastic team. If he can manage to not have a heart attack in the next three weeks, I like the Jayhawks chances. If he dies, I think they lose relatively quickly.
Front Court:
They have 1 guy. Udoka Azebueikfhesaakeehascnbookie. If he plays they have a good shot of winning. If he doesn't have two fouls by the 5 minute mark of the first half they have a good chance of winning. If he can make a damn free throw they have a good chance of winning. If he starts pouting they have a good chance of losing.
Backcourt:
This team has about 27 guards. They usually play 4, and in a tournament that rewards guard play. Sviaoslav Mykhailiuk (what is with these names anyway? Kansas has the all Wheel of Fortune team. The boosters need to buy a damn vowel the next time they pay for a player) is a guy who can flat out shoot. He also has the Euro-step traveling move down pat.
Devonte Graham is a player, but he's played pretty much all game every game, and when he's done they make him sweep the floor, do the laundry, cook dinner for the team, and greet shoppers at Wal-Mart.
Malik Newman is a solid player. He can pretty much do it all as long as he feels like it. Heck, you can say that about this whole team. When they are on, they are on. And when they are cold, they are as icy as Bill Self's old lady after he found his mistresses phone number hidden under his weave,
Prediction:
Who knows. They are as capable as anyone at winning this thing, but they could just as easily lose to Penn in the first round. I don't think they make it out of the first weekend, but this team knows how to win. They just do. So if they cut the nets down at the Final Four, that wouldn't shock me either.
THE Bruce Dickinson will surely be along shortly to write up a proper analysis, so I will do my best before he shows up with more cowbell.
Coaching:
Bill Self has one of the best weaves in America. Hands down, whoever was responsible for that blend of old vs new should have a small plaque in Self's Hall of Fame display. Never goes out of place, he can run his fingers through it with confidence, and the coloring is spot on.
Self can also coach basketball, but he's put on a few pounds over the last couple of years. His face seems to get redder and redder each year, but that could just be this year's spastic team. If he can manage to not have a heart attack in the next three weeks, I like the Jayhawks chances. If he dies, I think they lose relatively quickly.
Front Court:
They have 1 guy. Udoka Azebueikfhesaakeehascnbookie. If he plays they have a good shot of winning. If he doesn't have two fouls by the 5 minute mark of the first half they have a good chance of winning. If he can make a damn free throw they have a good chance of winning. If he starts pouting they have a good chance of losing.
Backcourt:
This team has about 27 guards. They usually play 4, and in a tournament that rewards guard play. Sviaoslav Mykhailiuk (what is with these names anyway? Kansas has the all Wheel of Fortune team. The boosters need to buy a damn vowel the next time they pay for a player) is a guy who can flat out shoot. He also has the Euro-step traveling move down pat.
Devonte Graham is a player, but he's played pretty much all game every game, and when he's done they make him sweep the floor, do the laundry, cook dinner for the team, and greet shoppers at Wal-Mart.
Malik Newman is a solid player. He can pretty much do it all as long as he feels like it. Heck, you can say that about this whole team. When they are on, they are on. And when they are cold, they are as icy as Bill Self's old lady after he found his mistresses phone number hidden under his weave,
Prediction:
Who knows. They are as capable as anyone at winning this thing, but they could just as easily lose to Penn in the first round. I don't think they make it out of the first weekend, but this team knows how to win. They just do. So if they cut the nets down at the Final Four, that wouldn't shock me either.
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I love this thread every year. As I grew up a St. John's fan and went to Rutgers, those are the two teams I typically watch on a night-in/night-out basis. Which means I can rarely contribute anything of value to this thread, but know I appreciate those of you who can/do.
Zow
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Zow
Footballguy
Huh. I guess that is it. Maybe it's just all your tales and infinite wisdom. For some reason when I see your posts I think, "man, this guy has been everywhere."
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Jayrod
Footballguy
Best one yet.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Not really my team per se, but I've seen them play plenty and I'll be pulling for them.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
25-7 (14-4 A-10)
#11 seed in East region, First Four vs. #11 seed UCLA, 9:10 PM Tuesday
Season in Review:
Rollercoaster is probably the best way to describe 2017-18 for St. Bonaventure. They were widely considered one of the A-10 preseason contenders and looked to have a solid shot as an at-large in the down-year A-10. Expectations were high with their senior-laden stud guards. But it went quickly south as star G Jaylen Adams suffered a preseason injury and the Bonnies were stunned by usual MAAC doormat Niagara in their season opener, 77-75. They quickly recovered, and rattled off 11 wins in their next 12, including high-profile wins over Syracuse, Maryland, and Vermont (and Buffalo, but that's not high-profile) with the only loss coming to then-undefeated TCU. Flying high, A-10 play started and the Bonnies stumbled out of the gate, opening 2-4. Talk of a golden age of Bona basketball had ended and the prospect of an at-large was laughable as they sat at 12-6 (2-4). But they rallied to win 12 straight A-10 games, including big wins over both Rhode Island and Davidson, to secure the 2-seed in the conference tournament. They lost to 3-seed Davidson in the semifinals.
Projected Starting 5
If Adams and Mobley play like they're capable of playing, this team genuinely could make a little run in this year's tournament. A healthy Courtney Stockard would make a huge difference, take some of the load off of Taqqee and Griffin. But just like we knew coming into this year, it's all on the guards. This is their moment.
How they'll lose
Adams or Mobley have an off-day. Ikpeze gets into foul trouble early. Stockard can't go or plays hurt and is ineffective.
What'll actually happen
I don't know much about UCLA, but I do know that Bona has a scary backcourt and I know their fans feel they've been wronged by the selection committee. This team will be out to prove something. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a close one against UCLA, especially if Stockard can't play, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see them knock off Florida and Texas Tech and sneak into the Sweet 16. Anything's possible with this rollercoaster team.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
25-7 (14-4 A-10)
#11 seed in East region, First Four vs. #11 seed UCLA, 9:10 PM Tuesday
Season in Review:
Rollercoaster is probably the best way to describe 2017-18 for St. Bonaventure. They were widely considered one of the A-10 preseason contenders and looked to have a solid shot as an at-large in the down-year A-10. Expectations were high with their senior-laden stud guards. But it went quickly south as star G Jaylen Adams suffered a preseason injury and the Bonnies were stunned by usual MAAC doormat Niagara in their season opener, 77-75. They quickly recovered, and rattled off 11 wins in their next 12, including high-profile wins over Syracuse, Maryland, and Vermont (and Buffalo, but that's not high-profile) with the only loss coming to then-undefeated TCU. Flying high, A-10 play started and the Bonnies stumbled out of the gate, opening 2-4. Talk of a golden age of Bona basketball had ended and the prospect of an at-large was laughable as they sat at 12-6 (2-4). But they rallied to win 12 straight A-10 games, including big wins over both Rhode Island and Davidson, to secure the 2-seed in the conference tournament. They lost to 3-seed Davidson in the semifinals.
Projected Starting 5
- G Jaylen Adams (Sr) - the superstar.. Projected NBA 2nd round pick, averaged 19.8 ppg and 5.4 apg. Really fun player to watch. Has been a bit streaky at times, but when he's on, he's tough to stop. Posted back-to-back 40+ point games just a few weeks ago.
- G Matt Mobley (Sr) - he's the Pippen to Adams' Jordan. The two of them have to be arguably the best backcourt in the country. Averaged 18.5 ppg and 5 rpg. Only 6'3" but plays bigger. He and Adams will play all 40 minutes, barring foul trouble or injury.
- G/F Idris Taqqee (Sr) - the senior captain, a "heart and soul" type of player. Doesn't really do anything exceptionally well, but is a very solid player on both ends of the court and will probably play 25-30 minutes.
- F Courtney Stockard (Jr) - he's the wildcard as he's coming off an injury sustained in the A-10 QF against Richmond. Didn't play against Davidson in the semis. Solid contributor at 12.9 ppg and 6.4 rpg, and the Bonnies will need whatever they can get from him.
- C Amadi Ikpeze (So) - he really stepped up during Josh Ayeni's suspension and has had a big impact of late. 6'10" and plays like it.
- F LaDarien Griffin (Jr) - will likely start if Stockard can't go. Averaged 8.7 ppg and 6.9 rpg, so he'll get decent minutes regardless.
- G Izaiah Brockington (Fr) - freshman who has been very solid this year and has a bright future
- F Josh Ayeni (So) - another wildcard. Started for much of the season but was suspended for violating team rules. Played 7 minutes in the A-10 SF against Davidson, so maybe he'll be back in the mix against UCLA?
If Adams and Mobley play like they're capable of playing, this team genuinely could make a little run in this year's tournament. A healthy Courtney Stockard would make a huge difference, take some of the load off of Taqqee and Griffin. But just like we knew coming into this year, it's all on the guards. This is their moment.
How they'll lose
Adams or Mobley have an off-day. Ikpeze gets into foul trouble early. Stockard can't go or plays hurt and is ineffective.
What'll actually happen
I don't know much about UCLA, but I do know that Bona has a scary backcourt and I know their fans feel they've been wronged by the selection committee. This team will be out to prove something. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a close one against UCLA, especially if Stockard can't play, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see them knock off Florida and Texas Tech and sneak into the Sweet 16. Anything's possible with this rollercoaster team.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
UCLA's roster is littered with NBA guys...They just took AZ to overtime.
St Bonaventure lucky they are playing out East.
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
DAVIDSON WILDCATS
21-11 (13-5 A-10), A-10 Tournament champions
#12 seed in South region, first round vs. #5 seed Kentucky, 7:00 PM Thursday
Season in Review:
Davidson really dicked around in their non-conference schedule. They lost by 1 point to New Mexico State in a November tournament, then fell to a sub-200 RPI Hawaii. They also dropped one to Appalachian State. Supposedly if they had beaten NM State and ASU and avoided that Hawaii loss, their RPI would have been 31 going into yesterday's championship game.
Once they got in to conference play, they really hammered most of the teams in the A-10. Somehow they lost to Richmond twice, then lost a heartbreaker in Dayton, while splitting with the top 2 teams (URI and Bona).
This team has the hallmarks of successful Davidson teams:
1) First in the country in Assist-TO ratio.
2) Number 3 in the country in FT % (which really saved them in the championship game, as they went 13 minutes without a FG in the second half)
3) Number 28 in the country in 3PT % (and 10th in 3PA per game)
They basically run a 5-out with their 2 big men being fairly adept at moving and wait for their motion offense to wear you out and give them an open look.
Starters:
F Peyton Aldridge (Sr.) - The co-player of the year in the A-10 and conference tournament MVP was a dominant force on offense all year. He can shoot from the outside, from the inside and in the mid-range. The undisputed leader of the team, he average 21.5 ppg and 7.8 rpg. He will end his Davidson career as the 3rd all-time leading scorer
G Kellan Grady (Fr.) - The freshman of the year in the A-10 was the highest-rated recruit ever to come to Davidson. He is an explosive scorer who can light it up from 3. He averaged 18 ppg and made the game-winning shot in the conference championship.
G Jon-Axel Gudmundsson (So.) The Icelandic guard generally functions as the PG, though the offense often runs through Grady and Aldridge. JAG is a skilled ballhandler and penetrator, who also had 6.1 rpg to go with his 13 ppg and 5.1 apg. He is a decent defender and averaged 1.4 steals per game. These 3 guys will play virtually every minute of the game(s).
G KiShawn Pritchett (So.) Once an exciting recruit, knee injuries have really hurt his career. He had a lot of games where he seemed invisible, though McKillop seems to like his steady presence and he doesn't really make mistakes. He is a good shooter (42.5% from 3) though not particularly aggressive.
F/C Oskar Michelsen (Sr.) The Finnish dandy has had an up and down career at Davidson, and despite having an impressive 3PT%, always seemed to choke on big shots. He was good in the conference tournament and will cause problem for more traditional big men trying to defend away from the rim.
Bench:
Davidson is now down to just a 7-man rotation
G Rusty Riegel (Sr.) - Basically the same thing as JAG and Pritchett, but not as good. Steady vet.
F/C Will Magarity (Sr.) - A former transfer from BC, the 6'11" Swede rounds out Davidson's Scandinavian trifecta. He functions similarly to Michelsen, but again not quite as good and not as good of a 3 point shooter. Both big men defend on the perimeter, helping and trapping on ball handlers.
Bottom Line:
Davidson will never quit, but against Kentucky (like in most games) they will just have to live and die by the 3. I suspect that Kentucky's athletes and length will disrupt the Davidson's motion offense and prevent them from getting as many clean looks as usual. However, Kentucky does seem like the kind of team that could take Davidson lightly and Davidson will often surprise teams and jump out to leads. This team does seem better on defense than some in the past, just in terms of staying in position and not allowing too many easy buckets, but they still have no real inside presence. In the end, Davidson's lack of depth, particularly if they get in any kind of foul trouble, is likely to be their undoing and Kentucky will pull away at the end.
21-11 (13-5 A-10), A-10 Tournament champions
#12 seed in South region, first round vs. #5 seed Kentucky, 7:00 PM Thursday
Season in Review:
Davidson really dicked around in their non-conference schedule. They lost by 1 point to New Mexico State in a November tournament, then fell to a sub-200 RPI Hawaii. They also dropped one to Appalachian State. Supposedly if they had beaten NM State and ASU and avoided that Hawaii loss, their RPI would have been 31 going into yesterday's championship game.
Once they got in to conference play, they really hammered most of the teams in the A-10. Somehow they lost to Richmond twice, then lost a heartbreaker in Dayton, while splitting with the top 2 teams (URI and Bona).
This team has the hallmarks of successful Davidson teams:
1) First in the country in Assist-TO ratio.
2) Number 3 in the country in FT % (which really saved them in the championship game, as they went 13 minutes without a FG in the second half)
3) Number 28 in the country in 3PT % (and 10th in 3PA per game)
They basically run a 5-out with their 2 big men being fairly adept at moving and wait for their motion offense to wear you out and give them an open look.
Starters:
F Peyton Aldridge (Sr.) - The co-player of the year in the A-10 and conference tournament MVP was a dominant force on offense all year. He can shoot from the outside, from the inside and in the mid-range. The undisputed leader of the team, he average 21.5 ppg and 7.8 rpg. He will end his Davidson career as the 3rd all-time leading scorer
G Kellan Grady (Fr.) - The freshman of the year in the A-10 was the highest-rated recruit ever to come to Davidson. He is an explosive scorer who can light it up from 3. He averaged 18 ppg and made the game-winning shot in the conference championship.
G Jon-Axel Gudmundsson (So.) The Icelandic guard generally functions as the PG, though the offense often runs through Grady and Aldridge. JAG is a skilled ballhandler and penetrator, who also had 6.1 rpg to go with his 13 ppg and 5.1 apg. He is a decent defender and averaged 1.4 steals per game. These 3 guys will play virtually every minute of the game(s).
G KiShawn Pritchett (So.) Once an exciting recruit, knee injuries have really hurt his career. He had a lot of games where he seemed invisible, though McKillop seems to like his steady presence and he doesn't really make mistakes. He is a good shooter (42.5% from 3) though not particularly aggressive.
F/C Oskar Michelsen (Sr.) The Finnish dandy has had an up and down career at Davidson, and despite having an impressive 3PT%, always seemed to choke on big shots. He was good in the conference tournament and will cause problem for more traditional big men trying to defend away from the rim.
Bench:
Davidson is now down to just a 7-man rotation
G Rusty Riegel (Sr.) - Basically the same thing as JAG and Pritchett, but not as good. Steady vet.
F/C Will Magarity (Sr.) - A former transfer from BC, the 6'11" Swede rounds out Davidson's Scandinavian trifecta. He functions similarly to Michelsen, but again not quite as good and not as good of a 3 point shooter. Both big men defend on the perimeter, helping and trapping on ball handlers.
Bottom Line:
Davidson will never quit, but against Kentucky (like in most games) they will just have to live and die by the 3. I suspect that Kentucky's athletes and length will disrupt the Davidson's motion offense and prevent them from getting as many clean looks as usual. However, Kentucky does seem like the kind of team that could take Davidson lightly and Davidson will often surprise teams and jump out to leads. This team does seem better on defense than some in the past, just in terms of staying in position and not allowing too many easy buckets, but they still have no real inside presence. In the end, Davidson's lack of depth, particularly if they get in any kind of foul trouble, is likely to be their undoing and Kentucky will pull away at the end.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Nice thread. I need help with my brackets. I don't follow college BB.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
My Kansas Jayhawks write-up will not be as entertaining as ChiefD's.
Executive summary: lots of firepower and ball movement on offense, good perimeter defense, weak rebounding, no depth
Coach Bill Self is sticking with the four-out offense he installed last year after decades of high-low flex stuff. The starting five play the bulk of the minutes. There's a fifth guard they can rotate in without missing too much. The backup center is inadequate against good teams.
PG Devonte’ Graham is the Big XII POY. Senior who has contributed since his freshman year. He makes about 80% of his ones, 40% of his twos, and 40% of his threes. As ChiefD mentioned, he usually plays the entire game, which puts KU at a disadvantage on the short-turnaround regional final weekend game. Great ball-handler and penetrator, can hit the center on the pick-and-roll or a spotted-up three-point shooter from anywhere in the halfcourt. Not a great shooter in traffic, usually needs to initiate contact and draw a foul to bail himself out.
WG Svi Mykhailiuk is the rare 20-year-old senior, great shooter/passer/dribbler for his size (excellent transition passer). Made 45% of his three-pointers, really good at recognizing when he's open and getting rid of the ball quickly when he isn't. 80% FT shooter but doesn't get to the line much. At 6'8" he is roped into playing PF on defense against teams that play two bigs. That doesn't go well.
SG Malik Newman, a Mississippi State transfer who sat out last season, came on strong the second half of the season, playing his way into the starting lineup and becoming an offensive force who can shoot and create. He was MOP of the Big XII Tournament. If he has to do more on defense than keep an eye on a spot-up shooter he can be beat, but good at denying the ball and getting a hand on lazy passes. The third guard on the floor who makes 40% of his threes and 80% of his ones.
SG Lagerald Vick junior is a "3-and-D" guy, usually draws the toughest defensive assignment, good rebounder for 6'5" guard, not much of a dribbler. "Only" a slightly-above-average three-point shooter (36%), also good at cutting to the basket for dunks and layups when his defender turns his back on him. Had some off-court trouble last year involving a crowbar and an ex-girlfriend's car, but I was out of town when that #### happened.
CG Marcus Garrett freshman is the other guard who plays. Hasn't developed as a distance shooter yet, but a good athlete and passer whose defense improved a ton as the season progressed.
C Udoka Azubuike sophomore is shooting 77% from the floor this season (that is not a typo), all twos, about eight per game, almost all within three feet of the basket. Great pick-and-roll guy in the four-out, quick enough to set screens elbow or higher and come down the lane. Good at challenging shots on defense, can cover a lot of ground for a 7-footer. Missed the Big XII Tournament with an MCL sprain; team says he was healthy enough to play but held out as a precaution.
PF Mitch Lightfoot sophomore plays when Azubuike is in foul trouble, tired, or hurt. Sawft inside but added three-point range to his jumper over the summer, will pick-and-pop to open up the lane completely for Graham or Newman. Not an intimidator on defense.
PF Silvio De Souza freshman joined the team over the holidays after graduating high school in December. Only bothering to mention him because he went 16-and-10 against West Virginia in the Big XII Championship game with Azubuike out. Doubt he plays much in the NCAA Tournament unless Azubuike's injury is more serious than reported.
OUTLOOK: I think they are a regional final team. The lack of depth will hurt them on Sunday after playing a tough game against a good team on Friday night. It's how I felt about them back in December when it looked like Billy Preston wouldn't become eligible, Mitch Lightfoot and Silvio De Souza didn't solve the problem. Don't know if you like Sparty or TSTSNBN in the other half of the Omaha region, but both outrank KU in KenPom and do it without jerking down the tempo.
The main NCAA thread is trying to talk itself into KU losing to Penn, or at least hinting at it enough to take credit for calling it if it happens. Also some chatter about NC State upsetting KU. Not sure where that really comes from. When KU switched to the four-out, it made them better against small teams that sit back and launch threes, and they will be bigger, quicker, faster, and better shooters than weak seeds that rely on getting hot from outside. KU is a mid-tempo team that doesn't need to force pace to win, so it's not like an extreme tempo will throw them off. Full court pressure historically gives the program trouble, but Graham is an excellent floor general. Their three primary ball-handlers are 80% free throw shooters, so they protect leads pretty well. Not sure how any team in KU's side of the bracket prevents a healthy Azubuike from going 6-for-8 or 7-for-9 from the floor with 7-8 boards.
Executive summary: lots of firepower and ball movement on offense, good perimeter defense, weak rebounding, no depth
Coach Bill Self is sticking with the four-out offense he installed last year after decades of high-low flex stuff. The starting five play the bulk of the minutes. There's a fifth guard they can rotate in without missing too much. The backup center is inadequate against good teams.
PG Devonte’ Graham is the Big XII POY. Senior who has contributed since his freshman year. He makes about 80% of his ones, 40% of his twos, and 40% of his threes. As ChiefD mentioned, he usually plays the entire game, which puts KU at a disadvantage on the short-turnaround regional final weekend game. Great ball-handler and penetrator, can hit the center on the pick-and-roll or a spotted-up three-point shooter from anywhere in the halfcourt. Not a great shooter in traffic, usually needs to initiate contact and draw a foul to bail himself out.
WG Svi Mykhailiuk is the rare 20-year-old senior, great shooter/passer/dribbler for his size (excellent transition passer). Made 45% of his three-pointers, really good at recognizing when he's open and getting rid of the ball quickly when he isn't. 80% FT shooter but doesn't get to the line much. At 6'8" he is roped into playing PF on defense against teams that play two bigs. That doesn't go well.
SG Malik Newman, a Mississippi State transfer who sat out last season, came on strong the second half of the season, playing his way into the starting lineup and becoming an offensive force who can shoot and create. He was MOP of the Big XII Tournament. If he has to do more on defense than keep an eye on a spot-up shooter he can be beat, but good at denying the ball and getting a hand on lazy passes. The third guard on the floor who makes 40% of his threes and 80% of his ones.
SG Lagerald Vick junior is a "3-and-D" guy, usually draws the toughest defensive assignment, good rebounder for 6'5" guard, not much of a dribbler. "Only" a slightly-above-average three-point shooter (36%), also good at cutting to the basket for dunks and layups when his defender turns his back on him. Had some off-court trouble last year involving a crowbar and an ex-girlfriend's car, but I was out of town when that #### happened.
CG Marcus Garrett freshman is the other guard who plays. Hasn't developed as a distance shooter yet, but a good athlete and passer whose defense improved a ton as the season progressed.
C Udoka Azubuike sophomore is shooting 77% from the floor this season (that is not a typo), all twos, about eight per game, almost all within three feet of the basket. Great pick-and-roll guy in the four-out, quick enough to set screens elbow or higher and come down the lane. Good at challenging shots on defense, can cover a lot of ground for a 7-footer. Missed the Big XII Tournament with an MCL sprain; team says he was healthy enough to play but held out as a precaution.
PF Mitch Lightfoot sophomore plays when Azubuike is in foul trouble, tired, or hurt. Sawft inside but added three-point range to his jumper over the summer, will pick-and-pop to open up the lane completely for Graham or Newman. Not an intimidator on defense.
PF Silvio De Souza freshman joined the team over the holidays after graduating high school in December. Only bothering to mention him because he went 16-and-10 against West Virginia in the Big XII Championship game with Azubuike out. Doubt he plays much in the NCAA Tournament unless Azubuike's injury is more serious than reported.
OUTLOOK: I think they are a regional final team. The lack of depth will hurt them on Sunday after playing a tough game against a good team on Friday night. It's how I felt about them back in December when it looked like Billy Preston wouldn't become eligible, Mitch Lightfoot and Silvio De Souza didn't solve the problem. Don't know if you like Sparty or TSTSNBN in the other half of the Omaha region, but both outrank KU in KenPom and do it without jerking down the tempo.
The main NCAA thread is trying to talk itself into KU losing to Penn, or at least hinting at it enough to take credit for calling it if it happens. Also some chatter about NC State upsetting KU. Not sure where that really comes from. When KU switched to the four-out, it made them better against small teams that sit back and launch threes, and they will be bigger, quicker, faster, and better shooters than weak seeds that rely on getting hot from outside. KU is a mid-tempo team that doesn't need to force pace to win, so it's not like an extreme tempo will throw them off. Full court pressure historically gives the program trouble, but Graham is an excellent floor general. Their three primary ball-handlers are 80% free throw shooters, so they protect leads pretty well. Not sure how any team in KU's side of the bracket prevents a healthy Azubuike from going 6-for-8 or 7-for-9 from the floor with 7-8 boards.
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cheese
Footballguy
I'll do a short version for the other teams in our league in case nobody shows for them.
Witchita State- If you have seen them in previous years, forget everything you knew about them. They have changed a lot. This year's version has 3 point shooters everywhere and play a much more offensive game. McDuffie who was a focal point last year, is now just a role player. I have no idea what happened there. I guess maybe he never fully got healthy. Shamet is still the best player, he can shoot 3s, drive and facilitate. Shamet is a legitimate NBA prospect. Reeves and Frankamp can both really shoot, but are also part of the problem on D. Frankamp as a little more all around game to score off the dribble as well. Shaq Morris is really really good. He's a bit undersized at the national level for a 5, but he's strong enough and has real skill finishing. He gets a ton of and 1's. If you foul him on the block, it has 0 impact on him, he plays through it.
This team will be in shootouts until they're eliminated. They might matchup fine against WV press in rd2 if that happens. Shamet can handle as good as anyone and they have shooters ready to punish you. They will also give them unlimited open 3s though.
Witchita State- If you have seen them in previous years, forget everything you knew about them. They have changed a lot. This year's version has 3 point shooters everywhere and play a much more offensive game. McDuffie who was a focal point last year, is now just a role player. I have no idea what happened there. I guess maybe he never fully got healthy. Shamet is still the best player, he can shoot 3s, drive and facilitate. Shamet is a legitimate NBA prospect. Reeves and Frankamp can both really shoot, but are also part of the problem on D. Frankamp as a little more all around game to score off the dribble as well. Shaq Morris is really really good. He's a bit undersized at the national level for a 5, but he's strong enough and has real skill finishing. He gets a ton of and 1's. If you foul him on the block, it has 0 impact on him, he plays through it.
This team will be in shootouts until they're eliminated. They might matchup fine against WV press in rd2 if that happens. Shamet can handle as good as anyone and they have shooters ready to punish you. They will also give them unlimited open 3s though.
cheese
Footballguy
Houston-
They play extremely hard. The main reason they're good at defensive efficiency (7th in country) is they don't give 2nd chance points, they dont give breakaways, they don't foul. Their defense won't otherwise impress you, but that stuff all matters a lot. If you're familiar with Tennessee, it's a similar brand as them.
PG Rob Gray is a volume scorer that can create his own shot anytime. They have some other guys like Davis who are probably better 3pt shooters. Some of their young guys got a lot better as the season went on and it's why they have so much momentum. They struggle at the center position, but they're not small or weak. They just aren't skilled down there to score imo.
How you feel about Houston is how you feel about "hot teams". Do they keep playing how they were the last 3 weeks or does the season reset? The interesting thing is they play Michigan in rd2. That's 2 teams with near identical seasons.
They play extremely hard. The main reason they're good at defensive efficiency (7th in country) is they don't give 2nd chance points, they dont give breakaways, they don't foul. Their defense won't otherwise impress you, but that stuff all matters a lot. If you're familiar with Tennessee, it's a similar brand as them.
PG Rob Gray is a volume scorer that can create his own shot anytime. They have some other guys like Davis who are probably better 3pt shooters. Some of their young guys got a lot better as the season went on and it's why they have so much momentum. They struggle at the center position, but they're not small or weak. They just aren't skilled down there to score imo.
How you feel about Houston is how you feel about "hot teams". Do they keep playing how they were the last 3 weeks or does the season reset? The interesting thing is they play Michigan in rd2. That's 2 teams with near identical seasons.
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Adams and Mobley did virtually nothing offensively for most of the game, but Mobley got hot in the last 5 minutes and Adams helped seal it late. Absolutely no way this game is even close if Stockard doesn't play.
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