Who wins this game via what and how can lead to great 'chatter', but who I will key in on this game is Randy Moss.
Who???
Yes, that Randy Moss, the first ballot HOF wide receiver who currently plays for the San Francisco 49ers.
Back when he was first signed with the 49ers, going into the pre-season and the first game of the regular season, I had these thoughts on Moss:
First, just to have a FF aspect of Moss, and not using this as a dig against the person who posted it:
Alex Smith owner
As a A. Smith dynasty owner, I really would love it if Moss signed in SF. If he really has something left, he will improve Smith by a large margin IMO.
I've read a lot of jurb's posts, and find his posts solid. I don't play FF, so I dunno how jurb's 'ownership' in Dynasty with Smith as QB works out without Vernon Davis, but what is worth the peek at jurb's post is the idea with Alex Smith and Moss. I'll fast forward to my armchair thoughts that isn't FF related, during the pre-season.First, my thoughts to that lucky dude who will be at this game:
My link
Is that WR a big enough name for ya, Drummer? The guy is 35 and can still run a sub 4.4 40... And he is Randy freaking Moss!
Was Moss the best FA WR out there?
Now
there lies the kicker. I think that Moss still has the phenomenal skillset that can make, even at his age, some great production within a great scheme and a structure with the balance of a run game and a QB who can at the pre-snap read pick apart an offense with some real good weapons around him. Moss had only one HUGE play this year using his wheels for a long score with a Smith short pass that was almost a dumpoff against AZ (or BUF), so the 'Big Play" Moss is still available. Of course it was against a team that had pretty much gave up on defense that game. He might have older legs, but those legs combined with his mind can still make an epic play. Moss is the extra gear you almost never use in the Harbaugh offense, but you still have that gear in the engine. Back to my earlier thoughts, my first early take on Moss and the 49ers:
My link
Regular season week #1: What to look for against Green Bay
Note: this is off the top of my head with zero input from reading any Bay Area media for the past week and then some.
1) Of course, Randy Moss. Moss has been bubble wrapped in the pre-season for us to see what Harbaugh has planned with a HOF WR, the first real true #1 WR he has had as an NFL HC, as well as the first true #1 WR the 49ers had since Terrell Owens. Last season the 49er passing offense was fairly anemic as far as consistency and yardage. Of course, there is a lot of reasons for that. One being tempo, another being protection, another not having being seasoned and having a true identity, and just plain being deficient of talent overall. Yet at the same time, the 49er passing offense last season under Harbaugh and Roman created a lot of key plays due to the threat of the run with several formations out of run sets that had a couple of passing TD’s out of unusual targets, like they successfully completed out of Jumbo packages at the goal line last season. But they also had poor stats as far as 3rd down and Red Zone between the 20’s in passing. The key in the 49er passing efficiency last season was due to not having to lean on the passing game as much as they leaned on field position and defense, whose stats totally eclipsed the passing game. The 49er passing offense was more key play passing offense than it is a true New England/New Orleans QB driven offense.
What Moss can add is more targets underneath drawing double teams with his speed, and combined with the threat of Vernon Davis, Micheal Crabtree, Delanie Walker who all can line up anywhere in Roman’s design with a two TE set and the increased speed at RB can really make checkdown’s easier for Alex “Mr. Dumpoff” Smith. The problem here is that Smith can’t read a defense and set a tempo well enough unless it’s full on risk passing offense, like he had under Jimmy Raye’s spread in spurts. Yet Smith showed under Raye that he can pull out the octane, but that octane was when the 49ers were behind in games, and defenses dared Smith to make a mistake after intercepting him and being up a couple of TD’s. There is no way Harbaugh would coach that idea of offense, going “Fire Drill” with Smith if he didn’t have to. That’s why Smith had his best year, in a year of full on passing offense in the NFL. Smith pulled the ball down more than he pulled the trigger under Harbaugh. That kinda reminds me of having a coach teach a nervy shooter in basketball who really isn't a guy who can create his own shot, yet whose coach can put the guy in successful situations because of the other phases of the team are more consistent . In other words: don't take the shot if you don't have it or we didn't try give you the advantage first. The pressure on Alex Smith is the most pressure he has had his entire career. He has a loaded team with all the parts assembled in almost all phases of the game with the exception of the passing game, and the 49er have committed to that said phase in adding targets for him. They have spent more on the offensive line than they had in years, they have reinforced their strengths and weaknesses, have some fine coaching, and now it's up to the QB to make this team complete. Whoever project's Moss success or failure this season won't be because he will quit on the 49ers. It will be purely based on the effectiveness of the QB who starts for the 49ers, who can read a defense from pre-snap and set tempo after. Then Harbaugh can pull his real playbook out, which if he had Andrew Luck, can push the ball with his arm alone.
I think Moss will have 3 of 7 catches, one TD with 97 yards this game. Because of the Harbaugh “key play” passing offense, zero check, 15 out of 21 attempts from Alex Smith type of opening season game. Because Harbaugh has a pass rush, run game, on the road, and is a conservative play caller. Also he has a great Special Teams squad with a stellar front seven defense, who will challenge Aaron Rodgers.
Have more thoughts later on this game, but of course, chime in with your thoughts.
I wound up over estimating Moss' targets IIRC that game, but the general idea of Moss within this offense was close. But let's look at the numbers with the "Smith offense" (which is key) here to the "Kaep offense": In nine games with Smith, Moss had 14 receptions. I'm not counting TDs yet here, just receptions. In the seven games he played with Kaep as starter, he has 13. Now, this does not include the stats from Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Mario Manningham, or the huge gains in Michael Crabtree's game since the QB switch. This also does not include the gains or losses by injury, or field position due to special teams, road games, or time of season. The numbers don't even reflect the offense itself. What the numbers show is the paucity of times Moss has been thrown to. Yet the difference within these numbers is who, how, how long the yards of pass attempt, etc. I've yet to go into the numbers of yardage passed of throws over a certain amount at a given time, but anybody who watches a 49er game would see that Kaep throws deeper to Moss than Smith did.
The reason why is that Kaep doesn't run the exact offense as Smith does due to his skillset. So what we need to watch this game in the playoffs is the connection between Kaep and Moss. Already the connection between Kaep and Crabs has made Crabs the best 49er WR since Terrell Owens. Kaep has made D-Love better too. Kaep has yet to spread everything around him making it even better than he is in his second year with Roman changing the gears, and even now the numbers show that he is the best option at QB for the 49ers while still raw.
If Randy Moss get's the taste of the sugar Kaep has tried to get him to bite on, then Randy could be huge in the post season. Why? Because he is used to the arm, he still has the skillset, and he has the hands of an artist who may not have the legs, but can still inspire a young QB.
But answering goldenchild's earlier question: No. He is still the enigma of Randy Moss. We'll know this next game.