Official Pick Eight Thread (#8---non ppr) (1 Viewer)

[billyjohnson]

So here we go!!

1 cjIII

2 ap

3 mjd

4 ray rice

5 gore

6 a johnson

7 turner burner

8 ??????????

Sjax--injury waiting to happen

Mendy--average talent, horrible fantasy playoffs last year

#1QB--not a huge fan of taking first round QB

Is the eighth spot a curse this year? Anyone see this spot in a more positive light?

 

[TheHosers]

I'm in the same boat in my RB heavy league. I'm actually leaning towards Deangelo over SJax. SJax does not have the 15 TD capability that I think Deangelo can hit if a few things go right. And even if JStew takes away some more carries you're still looking at a floor of 1100-1200 and 10TD's. I can't find another RB with a higher upside to explode in that slot. Plus, I'm trying to stay away from players on really crappy teams this year, Lee Evans being another on my run away list.

 

[Exit 1]

12 team?

I'd take A. Rodgers (even though you don't like taking a QB) and then come back with an elite WR in the 2nd round....maybe someone like Moss or Wayne. In the 3rd through 5th, go after backs. Target players like McCoy, Addai, J. Stewart, etc.

 

[C-Bound]

Same boat in a 10 team ppr. Picking 5th but Turner, Rice, and CJ3 are keepers. I'm either going SJ or going with Exit 1's plan.

 

[Grahamburn]

Where were you guys the last two times this thread was started?

DeAngelo Williams (or the RB of your liking)

Peyton Manning

Chris Wells

Steve Smith or OchoCinco

Hakeem Nicks

Brent Celek

Clinton Portis

and go from there..

 

[billyjohnson]

Where were you guys the last two times this thread was started?

DeAngelo Williams (or the RB of your liking)

Peyton Manning

Chris Wells

Steve Smith or OchoCinco

Hakeem Nicks

Brent Celek

Clinton Portis

and go from there..

Probably looking over SJax's injury reports for the past couple of years. That takes some time you know.(Edited for spelling)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

In this same spot and hoping one of the 7 you mention falls (a QB is very often snagged in the top 5 by an overzealous owner - it's a 6 pt per TD league and RBs only get 1 pt/20 yards rushing, so QBs are pretty valuable.)

If it breaks like this, though, I'm trying to decide between Moss, Brees/Rodgers/Manning, and S-Jax/Mendenhall/D-Will. I doubt I go with the RBs here as I think Mendenhall will still be there in the second and there's value in the 4rd/4th rounds as well. All 3 QBs are very likely to go before your second round pick, along with Moss and Fitzgerald, so I think I'd take one of the QBs here. This year, I feel there's a very significant drop off after Romo and Schaub, and you're taking a chance that one of those two is around at 3.8 (they're going 3.8 and 3.9 right now.) If I could guarantee Romo would be there at 3.8, I'd take Moss and Wayne or Austin in the first two rounds, Romo in the third, and then go RB 4-5-6. But I'm nervous that won't happen and I also see a significant ADP value pick in the third in Pierre Thomas. I would probably take Brees, Austin/Wayne, and Pierre with my top 3 picks and then fill out my RB2 and WR 2-3 spots in rounds 4-6.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

The more I analyze what to do with an 8-12 pick the more I think I'd go WR-WR. It's just too early for a QB with either your 1st or 2nd pick, and I'm not loving the RBs there. A Moss-Wayne or Fitz-Austin start is pretty nice. Then grab Romo/Schaub in the 3rd or just wait on QB and start stockpiling RBs in rounds 3-6.

 

[The_Fonz]

I'd probably grab the best player available - and that would probably be a QB. Then a top WR or vice versa. I hate grabbing a QB first as well but I had #6 last year and grabbed Brees and although I tanked in the playoffs, I ran away with the points total so overall it was a good season. I also got really lucky since for some reason everyone in my league was afraid of chris johnson.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

The more I analyze what to do with an 8-12 pick the more I think I'd go WR-WR. It's just too early for a QB with either your 1st or 2nd pick, and I'm not loving the RBs there. A Moss-Wayne or Fitz-Austin start is pretty nice. Then grab Romo/Schaub in the 3rd or just wait on QB and start stockpiling RBs in rounds 3-6.

My only fear is that Romo and Schaub get snapped up right before 3.8. Entirely possible if Manning, Rodgers, and Brees all get taken by the teams picking 9-12 at the 1st/2nd round turn. Those 5 mentioned and Brady are the only 6 QBs I'd be comfortable going into the season with (in a 6 pt TD league) thinking I had a shot to win it all. Otherwise, you're banking on Cutler or Eli or someone really having a breakout year statistically.In a 6 pt/passing TD league, getting those 0 TD games from your QB when the other guy's throws 2-3 is tough to overcome.

 

[Grahamburn]

I guess my problem is I don't really like any of the RBs at that spot. Yeah, i too have considered DWill over SJax. But something about that just seems wrong. Also, FBG seems to agree---having DWill projected outside the top ten rbs---with SJax projected to be significantly better. Plus, does anyone remember JStew going off last year after DWill went down. Do we really want to have our FIRST round pick splitting carries with that monster? And not that it's a huge difference, but JStew is 23 years old, DWill is 27.

I posted this in the other thread regarding this draft spot and these two players:

My thinking is thiseAngelo had 1,369 total yards on only 245 touches while missing 3 1/2 games. Jackson had 1,738 total yards on a whopping 375 touches and only missed 1 game. Had Williams not missed any time he would have likely had at least 300 more yards and a couple more TDs with Stewart taking 40% of the load. SJAX had 130 more touches than DeAngelo and only managed to score 19 more fantasy points. Even with the timeshare between Williams and Stewart, DeAngelo was and still is a RB1. He also has a much better shot at double digit TDs than SJAX, he'll catch more passes than Turner, and if Stewart misses any time he would be a top 3 running back.DeAngelo's ceiling is enormous and his floor is 1,400 total yards and 10 TDs. He's my top choice from the 8 spot.

Regarding Stewart being a monster at the end of the season: Would we be in agreement that if Williams had been the lead back in those games and Stewart was the one sidelined, then DeAngelo would have been just as much of a monster?DeAngelo was on pace for a top 5 finish and 300+ touches if he wouldn't have been injured, and that was with Stewart healthy all season.

 

[RenegadeGM]

Two problems with Williams:

Carolina leans on Stewart inside the 10.

Williams is not under contract for 2011. If the team gets off to a bad start, I could easily see the transition to Stewart beginning over the second half of the season.

More and more at the last 4 picks of round 1, I'm leaning towards going WR-WR in mocks. In 3 WR leagues, I've even taken 3 WRs in some drafts. Most of the time I'm able to get to of Fitzgerald, Wayne, Austin, White or C. Johnson with my first two picks, and Steve Smith (CAR) always seems to be there in the 3rd. If one of the top 6 QBs are available early 4th, I take one. Otherwise, I stockpile RBs over the next few rounds... usually guys like Thomas, Jacobs, Barber, Best, Forte, Addai, R. Brown can be had here. I try to get Bradshaw around the 6th or 7th, maybe Michael Bush in the 8th and it seems like in most mocks Portis is around late 8th/early 9th. Fred Jackson, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor seem to be good targets late for this strategy too.

The RBs you have will be boring and "unsexy", but if you get 5 or even 6 of them, you can see which ones stick and play matchups.

Picking from 11 (which is a few away from 8th in this thread), I've been trying to get a team similar to this:

L. Fitzgerald

R. Wayne

S. Smith

P. Thomas

B. Jacobs

K. Kolb

A. Bradshaw

M. Bush

C. Portis

Z. Miller

L. Maroney

L. Evans

A. SMith

...the rest being flyers, a defense, kicker, etc.

I checked ADPs to make sure and this is (give or take a half round) where these guys are going. Sometimes I back up the QB a bit earlier if there's value to do so.

Kolb

A. Smith

Fitz

Wayne

Smith CAR

Evans

Thomas

Jacobs

Bradshaw

M. Bush

Portis

Maroney

Z. Miller

 

[Grahamburn]

That's a great argument for DWill over SJax...and yes, we would be in agreement the DeAngelo could have been just as dominant as Stewart. I'm gonna have to think on this one for awhile. I can logically say that DeAngleo could easily outpoint SJax this year...but still something FEELS wrong in taking him over Jackson. Plus, I keep seeing DeAngelo dropping lower and lower in the FBG rankings.

What are your thoughts on just taking Brees/Rodgers and build from there? Guess that shows how much confidence i have in both these guys...considering I've never taken a QB before round 3 in my fantasy life.

If I'm going to take a QB early I'd wait until the second round and hopefully get Peyton Manning. He's as consistent as it gets and plays a pretty nice schedule as well. I think he could be poised for a 4,200+ and 35+ TD type season.Pairing a player like DeAngelo with Manning is a nice start to any draft.

Two problems with Williams:

Carolina leans on Stewart inside the 10.

Williams is not under contract for 2011. If the team gets off to a bad start, I could easily see the transition to Stewart beginning over the second half of the season.

I don't really think Carolina favors Stewart or Williams in the red zone. Stewart did have 43 red zone carries to Williams' 27, but Williams had 9 targets compared to Stewart's 1. It's also important to note that Stewart obviously did alot of his damage when Williams was shut down for the season. Stewart had 16 of his 44 red zone looks in the last four weeks of the year.Link

It's subscriber content, but it'll show that when both players were on the field Williams and Stewart each had 5 games where they had the most red zone looks, and they were tied with one look in the other game.

DeAngelo has also managed TD runs of 11, 20, 15, 66, 32, 15, 69, 56, 16, 36, 56, 13, and 30 in the last two years. It's not like he needs consistent carries inside the 10 to score touchdowns, but he has had 13 of those such TDs as well in the past two seasons. All of these numbers are with Stewart taking part of the load (imagine what Williams could do if Stewart was sidelined with injury). DeAngelo's last two seasons are extremely impressive.

If the team gets off to a bad start I could see Carolina doing the opposite of what you suggest. I'd expect them to run Williams much more than Stewart at the end of the year, let Williams walk in free agency, and save Stewart's legs for 2011 and beyond.

 

[Instinctive]

I like a Brees/Charles beginning personally, or Grant.

 

[bengalbuck]

Two problems with Williams:Carolina leans on Stewart inside the 10.Williams is not under contract for 2011. If the team gets off to a bad start, I could easily see the transition to Stewart beginning over the second half of the season.More and more at the last 4 picks of round 1, I'm leaning towards going WR-WR in mocks. In 3 WR leagues, I've even taken 3 WRs in some drafts. Most of the time I'm able to get to of Fitzgerald, Wayne, Austin, White or C. Johnson with my first two picks, and Steve Smith (CAR) always seems to be there in the 3rd. If one of the top 6 QBs are available early 4th, I take one. Otherwise, I stockpile RBs over the next few rounds... usually guys like Thomas, Jacobs, Barber, Best, Forte, Addai, R. Brown can be had here. I try to get Bradshaw around the 6th or 7th, maybe Michael Bush in the 8th and it seems like in most mocks Portis is around late 8th/early 9th. Fred Jackson, Laurence Maroney, Chester Taylor seem to be good targets late for this strategy too.The RBs you have will be boring and "unsexy", but if you get 5 or even 6 of them, you can see which ones stick and play matchups.Picking from 11 (which is a few away from 8th in this thread), I've been trying to get a team similar to this:L. FitzgeraldR. WayneS. SmithP. ThomasB. JacobsK. KolbA. BradshawM. BushC. PortisZ. MillerL. MaroneyL. EvansA. SMith...the rest being flyers, a defense, kicker, etc.I checked ADPs to make sure and this is (give or take a half round) where these guys are going. Sometimes I back up the QB a bit earlier if there's value to do so.KolbA. SmithFitzWayneSmith CAREvansThomasJacobsBradshawM. BushPortisMaroneyZ. Miller

Interesting post. I've been doing basically the same exercise, just kind of generally looking at different team possibilities based upon how I go the first few rounds.I'm pretty set on going with RB in the 1st (SJax), then WR in the 2nd (I like Roddy White best, but any of the top 7 or 8 guys would do). My toughest decision really comes in the 3rd round. Do I go QB with Brady/Romo/Rivers? I feel like if I pass on those guys there, I may as well wait til the 7th or 8th round and just double up from a group of guys like Ryan/Palmer/Flacco/Rothlisberger/Young.... I come up with these 2 teams based upon which direction I go in the 3rd:Steven Jackson.....................Steven JacksonRoddy White..........................Roddy WhiteTom Brady............................Cedric BensonMichael Crabtree....................Michael CrabtreeVernon Davis.........................Vernon DavisMarion Barber........................Dez BryantCJ Spiller...............................CJ SpillerJerome Harrison.....................Jerome HarrisonDevin Hester..........................Ben RothlisbergerLee Evans...............................Vince YoungAlex Smith.............................Arian FosterI kind of think I'm leaning towards the 2nd option and just waiting a really long time for a QB. Maybe not quite as long as above, maybe a Matt Ryan/Big Ben combo....

 

[bengalbuck]

Maybe go QB instead of Harrison.....then RB instead of Young? Though didn't take the time to actually look and see who would be there....Did you EVER have any thoughts on not going with SJAX?

I've got him as the #7 RB, so if someone higher rated fell, then I would go that direction.However, as far as looking at Andre Johnson or Aaron Rodgers, I definitely looked at it. I just kind of feel like the value in the 2nd round is at WR. So I'd be somewhat committed to QB/WR or WR/WR. At which point I'm kind of scrambling for RBs...So yeah, I looked at it and ran through a couple mock drafts just by ADP going different routes, but didn't like the results I got.With our league setup (standard scoring, No PPR), I don't really like AJ ahead of the RBs because he's never had a 10 TD season. Thus, I don't see much of a gap between him and Moss/Wayne/White/Fitz/Calvin, etc.

 

[tud_duke]

Is the eighth spot a curse this year? Anyone see this spot in a more positive light?

I was extremely worried about it until I finally drafted. Which was Aug. 8th.I play in a 12 team 1qb 2rb 3wr 1wr/rb 1te 1k 1def league.The league is average in terms of owner skill.I'm not looking for advice on this team, just trying to help others get a feel on how their drafts might go because this played out way different than any mock I have done.The 7th pick took Rodgers, which I felt like I would be stuck doing at the 8th spot.1st Turner - I am so glad he fell, Moss and Mendy went after. Sjax went at the turn2nd Calvin - Fitz and Matthews went right before3rd Jennings - Rice and Colston went after, Green went right before me, not sure why he slipped4th Steve CAR - I had a choice between him and the other SS, J stew went after5th Gates - Clark went two picks before V Davis followed6th Welker - No one wanted him including me, but I couldn't let him slide further even if I needed a back7th Caddy - R Bush went right after8th Portis - Bradshaw went right before9th Flacco - I was going to take Eli or Ryan here but both were taken right before me10th Foster11th Henne12th 49ers DThe rest is filler

 

[billyjohnson]

Just mocked this out of the eight hole. Should be accurate in terms of the current ADP.

Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Ahmad Bradshaw, Correll Buckhalter

Marques Colston, Wes Welker, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney, Devin Thomas

Zach Miller, Heath Miller

Nick Folk

Dolphins

I feel like this is about as strong of a squad as you're gonna get without someone falling to you (such as turner at 1.08)? Any suggestions for improvement for us 8s?

 

[Instinctive]

Here's a team I manage to get more often than not, which I LOVE (14 teams)

Brees

Roddy White

Sidney Rice or Crabtree (I can't decide, I like them both. Rice is gone about half the time)

Antonio Gates or Dwayne Bowe (only if Gates is gone)

Pierre Garcon (or Vernon, if I didn't get Gates)

Ahmad Bradshaw (sometimes he doesn't quite make it, in which case Michael Bush or Fred Jackson)

Michael Bush or Fred Jackson or Donald Brown (in that order)

Donald Brown or Laurence Maroney

Laurence Maroney or Devin Hester

It's pretty much BPA between RB/WR after round 7. Actually, it's always BPA...it just seems like BPA is always a WR early, so I shotgun RBs after round 5.

Kicker I'd like to have: Janikowski

Defense: Hopefully the cowboys fall a ways, but I like ARZ too

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Here's a team I manage to get more often than not, which I LOVE (14 teams)BreesRoddy WhiteSidney Rice or Crabtree (I can't decide, I like them both. Rice is gone about half the time)Antonio Gates or Dwayne Bowe (only if Gates is gone)Pierre Garcon (or Vernon, if I didn't get Gates)Ahmad Bradshaw (sometimes he doesn't quite make it, in which case Michael Bush or Fred Jackson)Michael Bush or Fred Jackson or Donald Brown (in that order)Donald Brown or Laurence MaroneyLaurence Maroney or Devin HesterIt's pretty much BPA between RB/WR after round 7. Actually, it's always BPA...it just seems like BPA is always a WR early, so I shotgun RBs after round 5.Kicker I'd like to have: JanikowskiDefense: Hopefully the cowboys fall a ways, but I like ARZ too

RBs leave an AWFUL lot to be desired. Your best case scenario here is Ahmad Bradshaw as your #1 back. Again, that's BEST case.

 

[-jb-]

.

 

[Instinctive]

Here's a team I manage to get more often than not, which I LOVE (14 teams)BreesRoddy WhiteSidney Rice or Crabtree (I can't decide, I like them both. Rice is gone about half the time)Antonio Gates or Dwayne Bowe (only if Gates is gone)Pierre Garcon (or Vernon, if I didn't get Gates)Ahmad Bradshaw (sometimes he doesn't quite make it, in which case Michael Bush or Fred Jackson)Michael Bush or Fred Jackson or Donald Brown (in that order)Donald Brown or Laurence MaroneyLaurence Maroney or Devin HesterIt's pretty much BPA between RB/WR after round 7. Actually, it's always BPA...it just seems like BPA is always a WR early, so I shotgun RBs after round 5.Kicker I'd like to have: JanikowskiDefense: Hopefully the cowboys fall a ways, but I like ARZ too

RBs leave an AWFUL lot to be desired. Your best case scenario here is Ahmad Bradshaw as your #1 back. Again, that's BEST case.

Well that's the point. If you think Bradshaw has RB1 upside and so do Bush and Brown and Maroney, then take Bernard Scott way later...all 5 guys have a shot at being solid producers. (Scott needs an injury) Point being, if you think these guys are way undervalued and could be RB1s, then you may as well stack yourself at other positions. Worked great last year with Rice, Mendy, Greene, Bradshaw...same concept this season.

 

[billyjohnson]

Yeah, but I got Bradshaw as my FOURTH rb (see mock above) and feel like I'm still strong in every other position. Why "hope" for rb1 numbers from Bradshaw when there are other options?

 

[Grahamburn]

Well that's the point. If you think Bradshaw has RB1 upside and so do Bush and Brown and Maroney, then take Bernard Scott way later...all 5 guys have a shot at being solid producers. (Scott needs an injury) Point being, if you think these guys are way undervalued and could be RB1s, then you may as well stack yourself at other positions. Worked great last year with Rice, Mendy, Greene, Bradshaw...same concept this season.

It did?! Go look at the game logs for those guys at the beginning of the year. Rice was the only player with any consistency. Mendenhall didn't have a nice game until week 4, and I doubt there were many people that would have started him for that game after doing nothing against the Bengals the week before. Bradshaw only scored double digit fantasy points 5 times all season.If you start your fantasy season 0-4 because you're waiting on some RBs to get a shot you're going to be in a big hole. There aren't any guarantees that you'll be able to find a RB that has a Ray Rice type of season again.

It looks nice on paper to have the stud QB and WRs, but when you're that far behind your opponent at the prime position in fantasy football I think you're setting yourself up for failure.

 

[Instinctive]

Well that's the point. If you think Bradshaw has RB1 upside and so do Bush and Brown and Maroney, then take Bernard Scott way later...all 5 guys have a shot at being solid producers. (Scott needs an injury) Point being, if you think these guys are way undervalued and could be RB1s, then you may as well stack yourself at other positions. Worked great last year with Rice, Mendy, Greene, Bradshaw...same concept this season.

It did?! Go look at the game logs for those guys at the beginning of the year. Rice was the only player with any consistency. Mendenhall didn't have a nice game until week 4, and I doubt there were many people that would have started him for that game after doing nothing against the Bengals the week before. Bradshaw only scored double digit fantasy points 5 times all season.If you start your fantasy season 0-4 because you're waiting on some RBs to get a shot you're going to be in a big hole. There aren't any guarantees that you'll be able to find a RB that has a Ray Rice type of season again.

It looks nice on paper to have the stud QB and WRs, but when you're that far behind your opponent at the prime position in fantasy football I think you're setting yourself up for failure.

Well I won it all in all 3 redrafts I do, so yeah, I'd say it did. To start the year, what about Bradshaw and Maroney and Bush looks dangerous? Bradshaw will probably split with Jacobs...just like when he was productive last year. Bush could get a majority right out of the gate in Oakland, or a decent timeshare at least. Maroney doesn't even have any real competition, although you may have to wait a couple weeks on him. What makes RB the "prime position?" There's only a couple guys that score significantly more than anyone else...in nonPPR (which is this thread I believe) I would consider Turner for sure at the 8 spot, but assume he's gone. People are gunshy about SJax and I don't think Andre is worth it in this format. This old time view of "RBs are the prime position" is no longer practical. The point is to outscore your opponent on a weekly basis.

If I have an advantage at QB, WR1, WR2, TE, and flex...can that not make up for a disadvantage at RB1 and RB2? All i gotta do is outscore you. Every single position on my team doesn't need to outscore you, the total of my team does. That's it. And if squeaking out a 1-2 or 2-2 record to start the year leads to me having breakout guys at RB all the sudden on top of a dominant squad at other positions...isn't that loss worth it? 2 losses? 3 losses? I would go 0-3 if it meant having a dominant roster there on out. Because all I have to do is make the playoffs and win 2 games. I don't need to go undefeated i the regular season. That's the beauty of it.

As long as you trust your gut on which guys you think will break out, then either they do and you win, or they don't, and you get to say at least it was MY guys." Nothing sucks more than losing by going the same way everyone else went and being just as good as most people...but losing because 2 or 3 goes go their own way and it works. My first 2 years I spent taking all the "common sense" advice, but these last 2 years I've thrown it out the window.

If I think the BPA at any given time is a wideout, and I don't even have both starting WR positions filled, I'm gonna take him. No need to pigeonhole myself into "I must have a RB by the end of round 3, even if they all go right away and I can get the top 2 WRs and the top QB" (for a drastic example)

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

 

[Instinctive]

Well it's impossible to be dominant at every position without any breakout guys unless you start 1 of each and that's it. I figure RBs are the easiest guys to find and just plug in, whereas it's tougher, IMO, to find that in a QB or WR. Last year had Austin and Rice, but no QB (well maybe Schaub, but that was less a breakout and more he played all 16) and a bunch of RBs.

Year before...Slaton, Johnson, Hightower, DeAngelo where the RBs I shotgunned. That worked out well. This year, here are guys to go for:

Maroney

Bradshaw

M Bush

Hardesty

Arian Foster

B. Tate

B. Scott

You already have an advantage at all the other positions, and now you could be on even footing or gain an advantage with RBs. Although, the same thing could potentially be done with WRs.

Go QB-RB-RB-TE-RB and then shotgun receivers all draft. I just think doing it with RBs has a higher chance of success

 

[Grahamburn]

DeAngelo Williams (or the RB of your liking)Peyton ManningChris WellsSteve Smith or OchoCincoHakeem NicksBrent CelekClinton Portisand go from there..

I posted this hypothetical 8 spot team earlier in the thread, and according to ADP it's very realistic. That team has 3 RBs with at least 1,200 yard and 8+ TD potential, two WRs with 1,100 yard and 8+ TD potential, a stud QB that could easily finish #1 overall, and a stud TE that should match up fairly well with your opponent's TE every week.That team is extremely competitive, and if things break right it could very well be dominant.It's just as easy to mix in the Bradshaws, Maroneys, and Bushs of the world at that point of the draft after putting together a solid core, but if you start with QB, WR, WR, TE, WR you're pigeon holing yourself into taking RBs instead of leaving some room for flexibility.It's my opinion, but any fantasy team with Maroney, Bush and Bradshaw as their top 3 RBs is going to get murdered.

Well it's impossible to be dominant at every position without any breakout guys unless you start 1 of each and that's it. I figure RBs are the easiest guys to find and just plug in, whereas it's tougher, IMO, to find that in a QB or WR. Last year had Austin and Rice, but no QB (well maybe Schaub, but that was less a breakout and more he played all 16) and a bunch of RBs. Year before...Slaton, Johnson, Hightower, DeAngelo where the RBs I shotgunned. That worked out well. This year, here are guys to go for:MaroneyBradshawM BushHardestyArian FosterB. TateB. ScottYou already have an advantage at all the other positions, and now you could be on even footing or gain an advantage with RBs. Although, the same thing could potentially be done with WRs.Go QB-RB-RB-TE-RB and then shotgun receivers all draft. I just think doing it with RBs has a higher chance of success

 

[billyjohnson]

 

[Dr. Rosen]

Instinctive's Brees-led team is in a 14 team league. That make a big difference here in how to view it. That squad in a 14 team league is very strong.

 

[Grahamburn]

I've been toying with WR/WR a bit today:

Randy Moss

Calvin Johnson

Pierre Thomas/Chris Wells

Matt Schaub

Antonio Gates

Marion Barber/Brandon Jacobs

Clinton Portis

Robert Meachem

That's a heck of a lot of talented players on prolific NFL offenses in your first 8 picks. Thoughts?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I've been toying with WR/WR a bit today:Randy MossCalvin JohnsonPierre Thomas/Chris WellsMatt SchaubAntonio GatesMarion Barber/Brandon JacobsClinton PortisRobert MeachemThat's a heck of a lot of talented players on prolific NFL offenses in your first 8 picks. Thoughts?

I like this. I think if you can get Schaub or Romo in the 4th, this is a pretty good strategy. I wouldn't be horrified to trot out Pierre/Beanie and Jacobs as my two backs and you're stacked at the receiving position(s) here.

 

[Grahamburn]

I've been toying with WR/WR a bit today:Randy MossCalvin JohnsonPierre Thomas/Chris WellsMatt SchaubAntonio GatesMarion Barber/Brandon JacobsClinton PortisRobert MeachemThat's a heck of a lot of talented players on prolific NFL offenses in your first 8 picks. Thoughts?

I like this. I think if you can get Schaub or Romo in the 4th, this is a pretty good strategy. I wouldn't be horrified to trot out Pierre/Beanie and Jacobs as my two backs and you're stacked at the receiving position(s) here.

Rivers is likely to be available at that fourth round pick as well if you miss on Schaub or Romo (I don't think he'll make it to the 4th). If Gates goes early there are several stud TE options that should be there in the fifth (Witten, Davis, Finley).I'm expecting a nice season for Beanie so I'd be pretty happy with this. If you hit on another RB late I think you're sitting pretty.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I've been toying with WR/WR a bit today:Randy MossCalvin JohnsonPierre Thomas/Chris WellsMatt SchaubAntonio GatesMarion Barber/Brandon JacobsClinton PortisRobert MeachemThat's a heck of a lot of talented players on prolific NFL offenses in your first 8 picks. Thoughts?

I like this. I think if you can get Schaub or Romo in the 4th, this is a pretty good strategy. I wouldn't be horrified to trot out Pierre/Beanie and Jacobs as my two backs and you're stacked at the receiving position(s) here.

Rivers is likely to be available at that fourth round pick as well if you miss on Schaub or Romo (I don't think he'll make it to the 4th). If Gates goes early there are several stud TE options that should be there in the fifth (Witten, Davis, Finley).I'm expecting a nice season for Beanie so I'd be pretty happy with this. If you hit on another RB late I think you're sitting pretty.

I like this too, give or take. If Turner is there at 8, I'm taking him. I've been leaning towards Moss over Steven Jackson if Turner isnt there, but I'm still not confident in that. Mine's a 10 team league, so I think there is a chance of getting both Jackson and Moss (also a start 2 QB). Tough spot this year at 8 IMO.

 

[Grahamburn]

In a non-ppr I think Turner probably goes at #7. My league is .5 PPR and a 3rd round reversal, so I'm thinking with that in mind.

The WR/WR strategy gives you a major leg up on the competition at that position, and I think there are several RBs falling into round 3 that have top 10 potential. (Wells, Thomas, Benson, and Charles in some cases).

Dallas Clark will put up WR1 numbers at the TE position, so if you miss on the QBs he'd be a nice option in round 4 or grab a RB2 if someone falls in your lap.

Instinctive made some nice points in that you can have studs at QB, WR, and TE from this draft slot, but I'd advocate a RB with your 3rd round pick.

 

[Instinctive]

In a non-ppr I think Turner probably goes at #7. My league is .5 PPR and a 3rd round reversal, so I'm thinking with that in mind.The WR/WR strategy gives you a major leg up on the competition at that position, and I think there are several RBs falling into round 3 that have top 10 potential. (Wells, Thomas, Benson, and Charles in some cases).Dallas Clark will put up WR1 numbers at the TE position, so if you miss on the QBs he'd be a nice option in round 4 or grab a RB2 if someone falls in your lap.Instinctive made some nice points in that you can have studs at QB, WR, and TE from this draft slot, but I'd advocate a RB with your 3rd round pick.

I've been doing some more recent mocks where I put a RB in at round 3, typically Stewart, although every once in a while Benson, Greene, or Wells will fall. Stewart is a decent guy to start but if DWill goes down he becomes uberstud. Even together they could both be low end RB1s If you go RB in round 3, I advocate a WR in round 4, then take V Davis or Finley in the 5th, or Gates if he falls, rather than taking Gates or Clark in the 4th.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

Williams is not under contract for 2011. If the team gets off to a bad start, I could easily see the transition to Stewart beginning over the second half of the season.

You may be digging a bit here. Carolina's coaching staff will be playing for their jobs and for their pride. If they feel he gives their team the best chance to win he will play. Besides, Carolina runs enough that Stewart can develop for the future right beside Williams like he has for two years.

 

[billyjohnson]

Grahamburn.....You still thinking RB1 at 8...or you swaying over to the WR/WR side? Anyone still giving Brees some love in the first?

Just mocked this squad at pick #8 (1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, Def League):

QB: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

RB: DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Arian Foster

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney, Roy Williams

TE: Tony Gonzalez, Zach Miller

PK: Nick Folk

TD: Miami Dolphins

This team is built for the long haul. My stable of RBs offer a chance to catch some good performers and with Fitz...can always find a decent WR2. Good depth at TE. Would really hope Schaub stays healthy...but could get by if he goes down for a few weeks.

**Had to actually 'scroll down' to find Roy Williams with my 15th round pick. Is he really considered THAT bad this year?

 

[Grahamburn]

Grahamburn.....You still thinking RB1 at 8...or you swaying over to the WR/WR side? Anyone still giving Brees some love in the first?Just mocked this squad at pick #8 (1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, Def League):QB: Matt Schaub, Alex SmithRB: DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Arian FosterWR: Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney, Roy WilliamsTE: Tony Gonzalez, Zach MillerPK: Nick FolkTD: Miami Dolphins

In a non-PPR I'd still take Turner or DeAngelo at the 8. I'm in a .5 PPR and I'm starting to warm up to the idea of chasing another monster season from Randy Moss. I Calvin Johnson, so if he's there in round 2 I'm taking him.I don't see the appeal of taking Brees/Rodgers in round 1. If you want to take a QB early just wait for Manning in round 2. With Gonzalez returning to join Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Collie he has a plethora of weapons, and he's Peyton freaking Manning. He has just as much potential to finish #1 overall as those other guys.That's a nice team other than your WR depth. Who fell in the second, Fitz or DeAngelo? I don't think either of them make it to me at my 2nd round pick.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Grahamburn.....You still thinking RB1 at 8...or you swaying over to the WR/WR side? Anyone still giving Brees some love in the first?

Just mocked this squad at pick #8 (1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, Def League):

QB: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

RB: DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Arian Foster

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney, Roy Williams

TE: Tony Gonzalez, Zach Miller

PK: Nick Folk

TD: Miami Dolphins

In a non-PPR I'd still take Turner or DeAngelo at the 8. I'm in a .5 PPR and I'm starting to warm up to the idea of chasing another monster season from Randy Moss. I Calvin Johnson, so if he's there in round 2 I'm taking him.I don't see the appeal of taking Brees/Rodgers in round 1. If you want to take a QB early just wait for Manning in round 2. With Gonzalez returning to join Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Collie he has a plethora of weapons, and he's Peyton freaking Manning. He has just as much potential to finish #1 overall as those other guys.

That's a nice team other than your WR depth. Who fell in the second, Fitz or DeAngelo? I don't think either of them make it to me at my 2nd round pick.

Problem with the bolded is that, especially in 6 pt/pass TD leagues, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees are all being drafted between 1.9 and 2.4. So, if you don't take the QB in round 1, there's absolutely no value there in round 2 if it follows ADP. So, you go RB-WR, WR-RB, RB-RB, or WR-WR and then hope you get a QB in the 3rd/4th. However, with current ADP, Brady and Romo are both gone by 3.8. So you have to hope Schaub is there for you at 3.8, otherwise you're looking at Rivers, Eli, Kolb, Cutler, Favre (?) as your starter. I'd be comfortable with Favre, not as much with the rest.

 

[billyjohnson]

Fitz fell to 17...manning gone at 16.

 

[Grahamburn]

Grahamburn.....You still thinking RB1 at 8...or you swaying over to the WR/WR side? Anyone still giving Brees some love in the first?

Just mocked this squad at pick #8 (1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex, K, Def League):

QB: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith

RB: DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Arian Foster

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney, Roy Williams

TE: Tony Gonzalez, Zach Miller

PK: Nick Folk

TD: Miami Dolphins

In a non-PPR I'd still take Turner or DeAngelo at the 8. I'm in a .5 PPR and I'm starting to warm up to the idea of chasing another monster season from Randy Moss. I Calvin Johnson, so if he's there in round 2 I'm taking him. I don't see the appeal of taking Brees/Rodgers in round 1. If you want to take a QB early just wait for Manning in round 2. With Gonzalez returning to join Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Collie he has a plethora of weapons, and he's Peyton freaking Manning. He has just as much potential to finish #1 overall as those other guys.

That's a nice team other than your WR depth. Who fell in the second, Fitz or DeAngelo? I don't think either of them make it to me at my 2nd round pick.

Problem with the bolded is that, especially in 6 pt/pass TD leagues, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees are all being drafted between 1.9 and 2.4. So, if you don't take the QB in round 1, there's absolutely no value there in round 2 if it follows ADP. So, you go RB-WR, WR-RB, RB-RB, or WR-WR and then hope you get a QB in the 3rd/4th. However, with current ADP, Brady and Romo are both gone by 3.8. So you have to hope Schaub is there for you at 3.8, otherwise you're looking at Rivers, Eli, Kolb, Cutler, Favre (?) as your starter. I'd be comfortable with Favre, not as much with the rest.

If the 3 big QBs go in front of your 2.5 pick then there should be a real nice player sitting there for you. I'd wait until round 4 if I missed on Manning in round 2.WR/WR or WR/QB allows you to gain a major positional advantage on your opponents, and if you take a RB in round 3 that hits you'll be in good shape. I think it's important from this spot to have a top 3 stud at the QB, WR, and TE position.

I've been advocating DeAngelo because in my opinion he has the most upside of all the backs being drafted in our ADP range. It's ludicrous that he falls into round 2. If he plays 16 games he'll get 260 carries and catch 30 passes. He finished 1st in 2008 and was on pace for a top 5 finish in 2009 until his injury. All of that with Stewart taking carries, and if Stewart gets nicked up Williams could finish #1 again.

 

[Grahamburn]

I posted this in the Randy Moss spotlight yesterday:

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Is anyone else thinking Randy Moss with this pick?In two healthy seasons with Tom Brady:159 98 1493 15.2 23 138 83 1264 15.2 13 That's an average season of 148 targets, 90 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 18 TDs. Tom Brady has thrown 565 and 578 times respectively in those seasons. The other thing that jumps out at me is that Moss' ypc hasn't changed at all and it's only .4 yards under his career average of 15.6. It doesn't look like he's lost a step to me.His schedule had me apprehensive at first, but Baltimore lost their top corner and Ed Reed is hurting, Revis may hold out, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they can be successful throwing the ball in cold weather.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I posted this in the Randy Moss spotlight yesterday:

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Is anyone else thinking Randy Moss with this pick?In two healthy seasons with Tom Brady:159 98 1493 15.2 23 138 83 1264 15.2 13 That's an average season of 148 targets, 90 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 18 TDs. Tom Brady has thrown 565 and 578 times respectively in those seasons. The other thing that jumps out at me is that Moss' ypc hasn't changed at all and it's only .4 yards under his career average of 15.6. It doesn't look like he's lost a step to me.His schedule had me apprehensive at first, but Baltimore lost their top corner and Ed Reed is hurting, Revis may hold out, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they can be successful throwing the ball in cold weather.

I think it's between Moss and Steven Jackson for most of us here. Right now I am leaning towards Moss.

 

[-jb-]

I posted this in the Randy Moss spotlight yesterday:

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Is anyone else thinking Randy Moss with this pick?In two healthy seasons with Tom Brady:159 98 1493 15.2 23 138 83 1264 15.2 13 That's an average season of 148 targets, 90 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 18 TDs. Tom Brady has thrown 565 and 578 times respectively in those seasons. The other thing that jumps out at me is that Moss' ypc hasn't changed at all and it's only .4 yards under his career average of 15.6. It doesn't look like he's lost a step to me.His schedule had me apprehensive at first, but Baltimore lost their top corner and Ed Reed is hurting, Revis may hold out, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they can be successful throwing the ball in cold weather.

I think it's between Moss and Steven Jackson for most of us here. Right now I am leaning towards Moss.

Yep. If Turner doesn't fall to me, I'm taking Moss.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I posted this in the Randy Moss spotlight yesterday:

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Is anyone else thinking Randy Moss with this pick?In two healthy seasons with Tom Brady:159 98 1493 15.2 23 138 83 1264 15.2 13 That's an average season of 148 targets, 90 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 18 TDs. Tom Brady has thrown 565 and 578 times respectively in those seasons. The other thing that jumps out at me is that Moss' ypc hasn't changed at all and it's only .4 yards under his career average of 15.6. It doesn't look like he's lost a step to me.His schedule had me apprehensive at first, but Baltimore lost their top corner and Ed Reed is hurting, Revis may hold out, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they can be successful throwing the ball in cold weather.

I think it's between Moss and Steven Jackson for most of us here. Right now I am leaning towards Moss.

Yep. If Turner doesn't fall to me, I'm taking Moss.

Same boat here. Mine's a 2QB so there's a chance Turner is there (or even Gore - one could dream).The question is what do you do on the comeback if you took Moss 1st. Williams or Jackson if they survive the turn? Calvin Johnson/Wayne/Fitz?

 

[-jb-]

I posted this in the Randy Moss spotlight yesterday:

With reports of Moss abusing people in training camp, Welker apparently approaching 100%, and NE's D likely to struggle at stopping offenses, should Moss be creeping up draft boards?These guys have got to be hungry for one more shot at a championship, they're going to need to throw the ball a ton to win games, and Brady should improve on his timing and accuracy this year being another year removed from his injury. It's been said, but he flat out missed Randy for 6+ TDs last year.

Is anyone else thinking Randy Moss with this pick?In two healthy seasons with Tom Brady:159 98 1493 15.2 23 138 83 1264 15.2 13 That's an average season of 148 targets, 90 receptions, 1,378 yards, and 18 TDs. Tom Brady has thrown 565 and 578 times respectively in those seasons. The other thing that jumps out at me is that Moss' ypc hasn't changed at all and it's only .4 yards under his career average of 15.6. It doesn't look like he's lost a step to me.His schedule had me apprehensive at first, but Baltimore lost their top corner and Ed Reed is hurting, Revis may hold out, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they can be successful throwing the ball in cold weather.

I think it's between Moss and Steven Jackson for most of us here. Right now I am leaning towards Moss.

Yep. If Turner doesn't fall to me, I'm taking Moss.

Same boat here. Mine's a 2QB so there's a chance Turner is there (or even Gore - one could dream).The question is what do you do on the comeback if you took Moss 1st. Williams or Jackson if they survive the turn? Calvin Johnson/Wayne/Fitz?

If Williams is there, I take him. Otherwise WR. Then Romo in the third, if he's there. Otherwise, RB.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

The question is what do you do on the comeback if you took Moss 1st. Williams or Jackson if they survive the turn? Calvin Johnson/Wayne/Fitz?

If Williams is there, I take him. Otherwise WR. Then Romo in the third, if he's there. Otherwise, RB.

Romo is my 3rd round target as well. Or Pierre Thomas.(I HATE THIS QUOTE BOX LIMITATION)

 

[-jb-]

The question is what do you do on the comeback if you took Moss 1st. Williams or Jackson if they survive the turn? Calvin Johnson/Wayne/Fitz?

If Williams is there, I take him. Otherwise WR. Then Romo in the third, if he's there. Otherwise, RB.

Romo is my 3rd round target as well. Or Pierre Thomas.(I HATE THIS QUOTE BOX LIMITATION)

same here on pierre.

 

[Instinctive]

I too have begun thinking about Moss here. Unfortunately, my league has slightly funky QB scoring...so I'll only grab him if i think i can get Manning round 2. Dallas means Romo definitely won't be there in the 3rd.

Moss having another monster season could be all anyone needs to win it all. Hmmm...