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If the game was a point-fest at the time, I'd agree with you. But when it occurred, it looked like the Niners wouldn't be able to keep up. I still think that in the circumstances of this game, it was the right call. Put them in the exact same situation but where the other team was having more success, and going for it would be the better call.
Doesn't make it wrong either. If the extent of your analysis is "you'll back them up even if you fail", then your assessment is really no better.
My wife bought me a book entitled "I Judge You When You Use Poor Grammar". Yes it does matter.
So you need to buy her one called "Sister Bernadette's Barking Dog" which discusses the history of diagramming sentences.
Even if I bought the 40% number, the resulting field position difference between the 1 (or very close) and the kick return is worth way more than .198 points
I don't have any idea what the difference is between the value of starting at the 1 vs. the return. I bet it's not much though, especially including the turnover possibilities (on both the 4th down play and the return).
