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Any better insight into whether now is a good time to buy a house?   

I can't help but think, personally, that we're at the very beginning of folks having to make tough decisions about selling homes they can no longer afford. The stimulus payments will tide most over another month or so, but in the next 3 -6 months I'd expect to see a pretty big disruption in the housing market all over.  Fewer buyers, lots of folks looking to sell/downsize/rent.

Am I off here?

Unfortunately, my family is moving cities and HAS to find somewhere to stay.  My wife is strongly in favor of buying because of security but I can't help but think we'd be buying at the absolute peak for the next year to few years, due to the decimation caused by the virus on jobs, wealth, income, etc.

Thoughts?
I kinda want to sell both my rentals in july before any crazy Bill's get passed where tenants dont have to pay for a year.

I also think prices will drop in about a year.

 
Any better insight into whether now is a good time to buy a house?   

I can't help but think, personally, that we're at the very beginning of folks having to make tough decisions about selling homes they can no longer afford. The stimulus payments will tide most over another month or so, but in the next 3 -6 months I'd expect to see a pretty big disruption in the housing market all over.  Fewer buyers, lots of folks looking to sell/downsize/rent.

Am I off here?

Unfortunately, my family is moving cities and HAS to find somewhere to stay.  My wife is strongly in favor of buying because of security but I can't help but think we'd be buying at the absolute peak for the next year to few years, due to the decimation caused by the virus on jobs, wealth, income, etc.

Thoughts?
If you plan to be there long term and the payment makes sense, buy.   If not long term, and you don't feel comfortable, then rent.   The market for starter pricing homes is still very hot.  The upper end is slowing down.

 
If you plan to be there long term and the payment makes sense, buy.   If not long term, and you don't feel comfortable, then rent.   The market for starter pricing homes is still very hot.  The upper end is slowing down.
The upper end is where we'd be looking.  We would be paying pre-Covid prices, pre-20%+ unemployment prices.  Plan to stay for about 8 years.

Also in an area heavily dependent on Oil and Gas.  Just can't imagine a lot of the folks in larger/nicer homes in this area being unphased by massive unemployment and huge hits to the major industry in south Louisiana.

 
The upper end is where we'd be looking.  We would be paying pre-Covid prices, pre-20%+ unemployment prices.  Plan to stay for about 8 years.

Also in an area heavily dependent on Oil and Gas.  Just can't imagine a lot of the folks in larger/nicer homes in this area being unphased by massive unemployment and huge hits to the major industry in south Louisiana.
Interesting.  Keep a close eye out there. You might see someone that needs to sell dropping their price nicely for you.  GL.     I know this board hates agents, but I'd call a brokerage you feel comfortable with and ask  the president/designated broker there for the agent that deals with this price range the most.  They often know of many properties not yet on the market and other possibilities.

 
Interesting.  Keep a close eye out there. You might see someone that needs to sell dropping their price nicely for you.  GL.     I know this board hates agents, but I'd call a brokerage you feel comfortable with and ask  the president/designated broker there for the agent that deals with this price range the most.  They often know of many properties not yet on the market and other possibilities.
Thanks.  We're connected with someone like that right now, but I worry that their view of things is biased by the need for the market to remain steady for their income.  It's not that I don't trust they're telling me the truth, but I find that folks whose income depends on them seeing things a certain way, generally see things that way.  In real estate, it means that until there's an undeniable trend going down most agents I've spoken with won't be comfortable suggesting folks wait to buy.

Mainly looking for input from folks outside of the industry, or un-biased in their reporting to me, on trends in the market.  I just can't imagine how massive unemployment, huge hits to oil and gas, relating to lost income to folks from low-paid workers to higher paid executives, won't fail to cause a pretty big downward shift in the market in the reasonably near-term.  I'm looking for either some validation that yes, this makes sense, and it would justify my inclination to rent for 6 months to a year to follow the trajectory, or to be talked out of my mindset and say that now is the time to buy because the housing market will freeze up in the future causing supply to dwindle and prices to at least remain steady if not increase.

 
Thanks.  We're connected with someone like that right now, but I worry that their view of things is biased by the need for the market to remain steady for their income.  It's not that I don't trust they're telling me the truth, but I find that folks whose income depends on them seeing things a certain way, generally see things that way.  In real estate, it means that until there's an undeniable trend going down most agents I've spoken with won't be comfortable suggesting folks wait to buy.

Mainly looking for input from folks outside of the industry, or un-biased in their reporting to me, on trends in the market.  I just can't imagine how massive unemployment, huge hits to oil and gas, relating to lost income to folks from low-paid workers to higher paid executives, won't fail to cause a pretty big downward shift in the market in the reasonably near-term.  I'm looking for either some validation that yes, this makes sense, and it would justify my inclination to rent for 6 months to a year to follow the trajectory, or to be talked out of my mindset and say that now is the time to buy because the housing market will freeze up in the future causing supply to dwindle and prices to at least remain steady if not increase.
we are at a cross roads on both those points for sure.  The market changes all the time, even w/o the current issues. 

 If I were you, I'd want a weekly DOM (days on market) update on your market and daily emails of all new listings, pendings and closings.  GL

 
Early forecasts seem to point that there was going to be less inventory than 2019 but with the pandemic and recent posts in here, I’m guessing that will drastically change soon. 
 

My original plan was to sell last summer, rent until the bubble popped and then buy at a low point. Looks like it was a good plan using hindsight.

We switched gears and will be looking for a beach property on the cheap in the next couple years. 

 
Any better insight into whether now is a good time to buy a house?   

I can't help but think, personally, that we're at the very beginning of folks having to make tough decisions about selling homes they can no longer afford. The stimulus payments will tide most over another month or so, but in the next 3 -6 months I'd expect to see a pretty big disruption in the housing market all over.  Fewer buyers, lots of folks looking to sell/downsize/rent.

Am I off here?

Unfortunately, my family is moving cities and HAS to find somewhere to stay.  My wife is strongly in favor of buying because of security but I can't help but think we'd be buying at the absolute peak for the next year to few years, due to the decimation caused by the virus on jobs, wealth, income, etc.

Thoughts?
I would absolutely rent for awhile. If you’re still working you will be like gold to a person renting. 
 

That’s before we even get into the weeds on purchasing a home in an unfamiliar city. I wasn’t picky with my first two homes, I will be for the next two. 
 

Obviously this is just my opinion based on my market and experience here in the DMV. 

 
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I would absolutely rent for awhile. If you’re still working you will be like gold to a person renting. 
 

That’s before we even get into the weeds on purchasing a home in an unfamiliar city. I wasn’t picky with my first two homes, I will be for the next two. 
I think we'll definitely rent for a bit.

We're very familiar with this city, having lived there for about 7 years previously, and my wife grew up there.

What we're not familiar with is how the housing market responds in a pandemic :).  I think you and I are in agreement at least that it likely won't be good for housing markets.  

Regarding renting - I would love to leverage the uncertainty and get better rental rates.  Have you, or anyone else, had much luck negotiating a rental rate?  If so, did you use length of rental, deposit, or other pieces as negotiating components?

 
This one will be very complex.  Not sure we know how this will play out cause we dont know how long businesses will be closed.

Some of you have oodles or rentals, so you probably just stay the course, but here was my thoughts on what I might do.  I have 2 rentals, one paid off and one not.  

The one that isnt paid off I owe about 47k, and theoretically it's worth about 85k.  I know my current tenants plan to move out in july, so I thought about approaching them to see if I could put the place up for sale right now and let them leave as soon as someone makes an offer that I accept.

Things in my area seem to still be selling just fine.  Maybe there is a value drop in a month, 4 months, year, 2 years....who knows.  My thought were to take the 30 grand or so that I clear and use that for the stock market.  I personally dont see any real recovery for several months, and hopefully I would have the money in hand by then.

I think real estate will be hit hard in the major cities for a while.  Not sure people want to buy there for a while.

Who knows.  This whole thing really is just at the beginning so man, who really knows.  I just think if you can sell some properties at their recent market values then that is probably a wise move to diversify and have some cash available for other investments.
Real estate is your fast route to wealth IMO.  Rather than selling, you should be using that equity to add 2 more properties if the prices drop.

 
I think we'll definitely rent for a bit.

We're very familiar with this city, having lived there for about 7 years previously, and my wife grew up there.

What we're not familiar with is how the housing market responds in a pandemic :).  I think you and I are in agreement at least that it likely won't be good for housing markets.  

Regarding renting - I would love to leverage the uncertainty and get better rental rates.  Have you, or anyone else, had much luck negotiating a rental rate?  If so, did you use length of rental, deposit, or other pieces as negotiating components?
Every market is different, but our demand hasn't placed a bit.  Had a guy try to negotiate price and security deposit last week and told him I had another 6 people in line behind him.  My days on market has actually gone down, but that's also impacted by not showing occupied homes which never rent as well.

 
Real estate is your fast route to wealth IMO.  Rather than selling, you should be using that equity to add 2 more properties if the prices drop.
How?  I thought it was hard to take out equity on rentals these days with lenders being Covid leary

 
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ghostguy123 said:
How?  I thought it was hard to take out equity on rentals these days
Hasn't been for me.  I've worked with my local bank to take out business loans in my name secured by the property.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
:deadhorse:

I've tried so hard for him to use his equity to do this.
@ghostguy123

I bought a property in 2006 for $70000 with $7000 down (probably would be 14k now).  Rent covered everything for 13 years, didn't make a dime during that time.  Tenant moved out and it cost me $25K to remodel, make repairs, and replace the roof.  Had $45k left on the mortgage.  Listed at $135 and cleared $125 at closing.  $125-$35-$45=$45,000.  That's only 42% or 3.2% which isn't that much.

$45,000/13= $3462 a year.  Divide that by my original $7k investment and my return each year on the original invest was 49%.  Go do that in the stock market.

 
Real estate agents in my area are definitely not being honest with people. I don’t see how the real estate market doesn’t drop with 20%+ unemployment. If you can’t find a rental then just make the best deal possible. The upper end of markets tends to take MUCH longer to sell so you may have some added leverage if you can find a seller that is more motivated. 

 
Real estate agents in my area are definitely not being honest with people. I don’t see how the real estate market doesn’t drop with 20%+ unemployment. If you can’t find a rental then just make the best deal possible. The upper end of markets tends to take MUCH longer to sell so you may have some added leverage if you can find a seller that is more motivated. 
Sorry, but as of this very day, have not seen major price drops out of the normal.    I normally get one facebook lead per day on average.  Have 11 in the last 3 days. Lots of buyers out there waiting on the fence while some listings went off the market because they didn't want people coming through their homes.   Could easily change in a month or two. And it might not.  Agents do NOT predict or set prices, the market does.

 
Sorry, but as of this very day, have not seen major price drops out of the normal.    I normally get one facebook lead per day on average.  Have 11 in the last 3 days. Lots of buyers out there waiting on the fence while some listings went off the market because they didn't want people coming through their homes.   Could easily change in a month or two. And it might not.  Agents do NOT predict or set prices, the market does.
I haven’t seen any major changes other than an increase in homes coming been on market where I’m at. But I’m absolutely seeing posts and videos on social media where agents are telling people that this isn’t going to have an impact on home values. Even more so when talking with borrowers about their concerns after they get off the phone with their agents. 

 
Sorry, but as of this very day, have not seen major price drops out of the normal.    I normally get one facebook lead per day on average.  Have 11 in the last 3 days. Lots of buyers out there waiting on the fence while some listings went off the market because they didn't want people coming through their homes.   Could easily change in a month or two. And it might not.  Agents do NOT predict or set prices, the market does.
I haven’t seen any major changes other than an increase in homes coming been on market where I’m at. But I’m absolutely seeing posts and videos on social media where agents are telling people that this isn’t going to have an impact on home values. Even more so when talking with borrowers about their concerns after they get off the phone with their agents. 
And they may be right.

It reminds me a bit of gas prices.  It takes a lot for gas prices in normal times to go down, but doesn't take but a whisper of trouble in some area of oil production or refineries for oil prices to go up.  Gas stations are more than happy to anticipate and pass on increased costs to trouble with the gas supply chain, but are very unlikely to pass on perceived improvements.

Similarly, real estate professionals seem very willing to talk about hot markets, surges in buying, trends in areas...but are incredibly slow to talk about turn downs, slowing markets, or drooping demand where you're better off waiting months or a year to buy, or try renting instead.  I'm not saying they never get there...they do, but just like dropping gas prices, it takes a mallet over the head often times to have real estate agents willing to make forward looking views of a gloomy housing market.  In part, it's because they don't want to see it themselves, until it's staring them in the face.

That's my guess at least.

 
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I haven’t seen any major changes other than an increase in homes coming been on market where I’m at. But I’m absolutely seeing posts and videos on social media where agents are telling people that this isn’t going to have an impact on home values.
Me too.   It really hasn't had an impact in a negative way yet.  They aren't lying.     I sold a home in 6 hours three Saturday's ago.  Nine people went inside in 18 hours.  Sold and appraised over asking.

Also, past recessions have not had homes drop in prices.     Still just too much demand and not enough inventory.

 
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Me too.   It really hasn't had an impact in a negative way yet.  They aren't lying.     I sold a home in 6 hours three Saturday's ago.  Nice people went inside in 18 hours.  Sold and appraised over asking.

Also, past recessions have not had homes drop in prices.     Still just too much demand and not enough inventory.
Past recessions haven't seen 20+ million unemployed. Gas prices plummeting, oil prices plummeting, global demand lagging, entire industries demolished (temporarily for now, but who knows).

These are not times by which you measure against normal recessions.

 
Past recessions haven't seen 20+ million unemployed. Gas prices plummeting, oil prices plummeting, global demand lagging, entire industries demolished (temporarily for now, but who knows).

These are not times by which you measure against normal recessions.
And I have yet to see demand slow down.  I have seen like 10% of listings cancel due to them not wanting people in their home. Prices are holding still.   Also could be pent up demand in areas not hard hit could surface.  I've had 10 buyer leads in last three days when I normally get three.  Our state is down to 20 new cases per day.

 
Past recessions haven't seen 20+ million unemployed. Gas prices plummeting, oil prices plummeting, global demand lagging, entire industries demolished (temporarily for now, but who knows).

These are not times by which you measure against normal recessions.
The only problem is those things don't impact several of the key drivers

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N Ownership percents still down

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Housing starts still down

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/population But the number of people needing homes is up

And this is the most interesting chart.  Rapidly increasing housing supply is a predictor of a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR  We definitely have room to absorb some supply.

 
The only problem is those things don't impact several of the key drivers

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N Ownership percents still down

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST Housing starts still down

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/population But the number of people needing homes is up

And this is the most interesting chart.  Rapidly increasing housing supply is a predictor of a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR  We definitely have room to absorb some supply.
Yeah, these kinds of effects don't happen quickly for housing market changes.  Most of the world has changed in the past two months, and the lingering effects will be seen in the months to come.  I'm not surprised things aren't showing up right now...the main thing is how long it will take (if at all) for changes to set in based on the huge loss of income, the huge disruption to industry, to global demand, oil drops, etc.  

Many communities in the south, especially south Louisiana, are heavily dependent on gas and oil.  With what we're seeing now, some communities that were growing like crazy could go from that, to huge layoffs in a city within 6 months.  Demand for housing drops, causes huge shifts in the market.

I was out looking at apartments today in town, and a place our company rented from said that they had 40 units with an oil company in town, and the company is unwinding those holdings over the next 2 months.  The guy, in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of layoffs at the plants, will have to fill 40 single/double/triple apartments.  And he's just one of many in this town that built up to match growing demand...but the ground shifted underneath them and it'll take time to come back.

I'd love to believe the market will come back in the next few months, but I suspect we're in for at the absolute minimum, another 6 months of on and off again shutdowns due to spiking infections.  The kind of impact that will have on business, on demand, and ultimately on the housing market I think will be significant.  However, i don't have a crystal ball and I could be way off.  The asymptomatic rate could be much higher, the risk of re-opening the economy could be much lower than I suspect, and we could get back to normal fairly quickly.  If that happens, I suspect housing prices may fluctuate a bit, but ultimately stabilize and start growing again.  I just don't see that global scenario as being likely, as with the 1918 spanish flu the second wave was far worse than the first...and we seem to be following in the footsteps of society back then, hankering to open back up, people not taking it seriously, etc.  

Anyway, enjoy the convo and especially opposing points of view.  Definitely not saying I'm right, but I am putting forward my perspective to see if you guys see any weaknesses to my points or have other insights I didn't consider like those links you posted.

 
Yeah, these kinds of effects don't happen quickly for housing market changes.  Most of the world has changed in the past two months, and the lingering effects will be seen in the months to come.  I'm not surprised things aren't showing up right now...the main thing is how long it will take (if at all) for changes to set in based on the huge loss of income, the huge disruption to industry, to global demand, oil drops, etc.  

Many communities in the south, especially south Louisiana, are heavily dependent on gas and oil.  With what we're seeing now, some communities that were growing like crazy could go from that, to huge layoffs in a city within 6 months.  Demand for housing drops, causes huge shifts in the market.

I was out looking at apartments today in town, and a place our company rented from said that they had 40 units with an oil company in town, and the company is unwinding those holdings over the next 2 months.  The guy, in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of layoffs at the plants, will have to fill 40 single/double/triple apartments.  And he's just one of many in this town that built up to match growing demand...but the ground shifted underneath them and it'll take time to come back.

I'd love to believe the market will come back in the next few months, but I suspect we're in for at the absolute minimum, another 6 months of on and off again shutdowns due to spiking infections.  The kind of impact that will have on business, on demand, and ultimately on the housing market I think will be significant.  However, i don't have a crystal ball and I could be way off.  The asymptomatic rate could be much higher, the risk of re-opening the economy could be much lower than I suspect, and we could get back to normal fairly quickly.  If that happens, I suspect housing prices may fluctuate a bit, but ultimately stabilize and start growing again.  I just don't see that global scenario as being likely, as with the 1918 spanish flu the second wave was far worse than the first...and we seem to be following in the footsteps of society back then, hankering to open back up, people not taking it seriously, etc.  

Anyway, enjoy the convo and especially opposing points of view.  Definitely not saying I'm right, but I am putting forward my perspective to see if you guys see any weaknesses to my points or have other insights I didn't consider like those links you posted.
You make very good points. Prices could be impacted more locally this time with huge drops in some areas while others keep trucking along. I think you’re smart to rent while this unfolds. I don’t see prices increasing so you won’t lose ground and stand to benefit. I just don’t see a huge collapse in the housing market nationally because there has been a housing shortage in many places for years.  I think that built up deficit is enough to help stabilize the market 

 
Me too.   It really hasn't had an impact in a negative way yet.  They aren't lying.     I sold a home in 6 hours three Saturday's ago.  Nine people went inside in 18 hours.  Sold and appraised over asking.

Also, past recessions have not had homes drop in prices.     Still just too much demand and not enough inventory.
Our purchase volume is actually up this year so like you we haven't seen a dip in activity or prices yet, but I'm also not telling people that prices won't drop. I'm not at all saying that you are, or all agents are, but ones that are "predicting" the market won't be phased by this are only looking out for themselves imo. It would be much better for them to just talk about where things are currently and stick to facts.

Existing home sales nationwide dropped 8.5% from February to March which is normally when things start to heat up so there has been a shift but we'll have to see if that translates to lower prices since inventory seems to be getting even tighter as sellers hold off on listing until this is over. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
How?  I thought it was hard to take out equity on rentals these days with lenders being Covid leary
Have you tried to open a HELOC?  I bought all 24 of mine on 3 or 4 HELOCs (now paid off). 

 
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Posted in the mortgage thread as well, but just got pre-approved for a 550k loan.  Thought we could do a HELOC to get the equity from our current home and use it to get 20% on the new home, but Chase stopped doing HELOC's entirely a week ago.  Credit rating minimum is 700 for loans, and you have to have 20% down, and have 12 months of expenses in the bank AFTER all closing costs and 20% are put down.

So for a 550k house, we'll have to come to the table with 120k in cash, and have another 25,000 in liquid assets available to get approval for the loan.  Without access to a HELOC, without (as Chadastroma seems to be saying in the mortgage thread) the ability to do a cash-out refi.  We have a home we're in now that we'll be listing soon, but until it sells that equity will be unavailable to us.

Anyway, my thoughts are that the banks are doing this because the financial system going forward is very tenuous.  Tons of unemployed folks, they don't know what housing prices will do, and their risk appetite is rapidly dwindling.

To me, this spells a LOT of trouble for folks qualifying for new loans, which should put downward pressure on housing prices due to fewer buyers being able to qualify EVEN at historically low rates.  The higher the home price, the more likely this is to be an issue.  And once you get to Jumbo loans...that will be even more rare to find qualified buyers in this market.  So homes starting around 638,000 and up will have an increasingly hard time finding buyers due to the tightening in the loan markets.  

Might do interesting things for prices of loans that high.  As always, just looking for feedback on this way of thinking.  Odds are the effects from this won't be seen for a month or so out, but I still have trouble seeing anything but decreased home prices due to a reduction in qualified buyers at this time.  Thoughts?

 
I’m not sure. There’s still a house shortage and the mortgage postponements should prevent foreclosures from flooding the market
Do you think there will be any loosening in terms of financing? We touched on this a little in the new car thread but with unemployment rates estimated to be THIS high if the rules of financing(even if you just recently found a job) I was under the impression a much, much higher % of borrowers will be deemed a higher risk, which means they pay higher interest, which means they can't afford to buy what they really want and could have afforded in January. Coupled with the fact many are dipping into their down-payment savings just to get by in 2020. It's not JUST that so many people will have been without a job... it's the fact that so many people will have only been at their new job a very short time even when the economy is up and humming again which is a time frame nobody even knows in the first place.

 
Posted in the mortgage thread as well, but just got pre-approved for a 550k loan.  Thought we could do a HELOC to get the equity from our current home and use it to get 20% on the new home, but Chase stopped doing HELOC's entirely a week ago.  Credit rating minimum is 700 for loans, and you have to have 20% down, and have 12 months of expenses in the bank AFTER all closing costs and 20% are put down.

So for a 550k house, we'll have to come to the table with 120k in cash, and have another 25,000 in liquid assets available to get approval for the loan.  Without access to a HELOC, without (as Chadastroma seems to be saying in the mortgage thread) the ability to do a cash-out refi.  We have a home we're in now that we'll be listing soon, but until it sells that equity will be unavailable to us.

Anyway, my thoughts are that the banks are doing this because the financial system going forward is very tenuous.  Tons of unemployed folks, they don't know what housing prices will do, and their risk appetite is rapidly dwindling.

To me, this spells a LOT of trouble for folks qualifying for new loans, which should put downward pressure on housing prices due to fewer buyers being able to qualify EVEN at historically low rates.  The higher the home price, the more likely this is to be an issue.  And once you get to Jumbo loans...that will be even more rare to find qualified buyers in this market.  So homes starting around 638,000 and up will have an increasingly hard time finding buyers due to the tightening in the loan markets.  

Might do interesting things for prices of loans that high.  As always, just looking for feedback on this way of thinking.  Odds are the effects from this won't be seen for a month or so out, but I still have trouble seeing anything but decreased home prices due to a reduction in qualified buyers at this time.  Thoughts?
Chase is using this as an excuse to get out of the mortgage industry imo. Dimon doesn't like it to begin with. 

We're still doing 0-3% down loans and down to 600 credit scores. We used to go down to 580. Lower credit scores have absolutely taken a beating on rate and points though. Yesterday we were at 3.625% with 2.5 points on an FHA loan with a 600 credit score which is probably 1.5 points higher than normal.

Some companies have tightened up A LOT whereas others like us have only tightened up a little bit. Our forbearance rates are about half of the industry average though so that might have something to do with it. 

 
Do you think there will be any loosening in terms of financing? We touched on this a little in the new car thread but with unemployment rates estimated to be THIS high if the rules of financing(even if you just recently found a job) I was under the impression a much, much higher % of borrowers will be deemed a higher risk, which means they pay higher interest, which means they can't afford to buy what they really want and could have afforded in January. Coupled with the fact many are dipping into their down-payment savings just to get by in 2020. It's not JUST that so many people will have been without a job... it's the fact that so many people will have only been at their new job a very short time even when the economy is up and humming again which is a time frame nobody even knows in the first place.
I do. Things are starting to looking go. Unemployment will lag because the benefits are pretty amazing.  All this money the fed pumped into the economy will have to go somewhere. Eventually lenders will want to make money on loans again and the competition will heat up

 
Underwriting will loosen when investors are buying the MBS from them and deferments are no longer on demand. 

What has happened is a direct result of what is buying bought on the secondary market. When the money dried up then there was no where to sell. The risker lending went first so your non-QM lending (loans that do not fit the agency and jumbo boxes) and continued on through with tightening of underwriting even on agency lending for most lenders and those who are still doing them have really nasty terms (the only way that they can entice buyers for the loans) comparatively to what is otherwise available. Cash out and equity lending are the new area that is seeing dramatic tightening. Monday was a nasty day to be a loan originator and have cash out refinances in the pipeline. Loans were suddenly unable to close because they didn't pass QM due to points being charged and brokers either need to eat it or not close it. 

Deferment on demand was a mistake. It has causes SO many issues. If they simply had said that you need to show proof of hardship (even if that bar was low) it would have made a world of difference but go figure the government doing something meant to help and it had unintended consequences? That is unthinkable! The other thing that causes major disruption was the government buying MBS up in massive amounts. It actually nearly sent many lenders over the edge. The problem was that it destroyed their hedging systems. To the credit of the Fed, after hearing from the lending community, they adjusted and stabilized things. 

Once we get out of 'crisis' mode and are in 'recovery' mode things should start to loosen up again. Interest rates will likely go to all time lows and like in past recessions that will help fuel the economy out of recession as people refinance, lower their costs and then take the monthly savings and spend it. (most recessions excluding two of the last 7 IIRC) saw this. The last one is a total outlier because the recession was caused by real estate. I expect real estate to see a V recovery even while an expectation of the larger economy will be a much more flat on the recovery side. If you can buy, there should be some good deals in the next few months but then that window (my guess) will close fairly quickly as underwriting loosens and more people can enter the market again. Supply is still extremely low in all of the markets I have heard about so a drop in buyers will not be a problem. If all of a sudden housing inventory is flooded, that could change, but I am not seeing why that will happen assuming this 'crisis' period is not extended for too many months  where there could be a lot of people trying to sell before they lose all their equity. But again, that would be a major shift in the market and I think would take much more pain for us to get there. 

 
 Supply is still extremely low in all of the markets I have heard about so a drop in buyers will not be a problem. If all of a sudden housing inventory is flooded, that could change, but I am not seeing why that will happen assuming this 'crisis' period is not extended for too many months  where there could be a lot of people trying to sell before they lose all their equity. But again, that would be a major shift in the market and I think would take much more pain for us to get there. 
As a family looking to move, selling one house in one city and buying in another, we just talked to our RA today to sell and she said not to list until our Shelter in Place guidance has lifted, which is a couple of weeks out yet.  She says you don't want to have your house sitting on the market without views, so plan to list right when the order lifts and people are more likely to come view, or a couple weeks later.

I can only imagine other folks have been getting that same advice in our state.  This is why inventory is so low, and/or stale, in the area we're looking at.

I expect, once the order has lifted, to see a flood of pent-up listings hit the market.  Not sure what that'll do for housing prices, as many folks out looking for houses will likely start looking again in earnest, but with so many folks out of work or worried about income, I can only imagine the imbalance will favor a flood of homes for sale and a shortage of qualified buyers.

As always, just a guess, but it's based on what I'm seeing as someone trying to buy and sell at the same time.  

 
As a family looking to move, selling one house in one city and buying in another, we just talked to our RA today to sell and she said not to list until our Shelter in Place guidance has lifted, which is a couple of weeks out yet.  She says you don't want to have your house sitting on the market without views, so plan to list right when the order lifts and people are more likely to come view, or a couple weeks later.

I can only imagine other folks have been getting that same advice in our state.  This is why inventory is so low, and/or stale, in the area we're looking at.

I expect, once the order has lifted, to see a flood of pent-up listings hit the market.  Not sure what that'll do for housing prices, as many folks out looking for houses will likely start looking again in earnest, but with so many folks out of work or worried about income, I can only imagine the imbalance will favor a flood of homes for sale and a shortage of qualified buyers.

As always, just a guess, but it's based on what I'm seeing as someone trying to buy and sell at the same time.  
Had a closing today.  Was on the market for 18 hours.  VA loan.

If she didn't show you any data to back up this claim, I'd fire her.  Hope she did.

Without views?   Like 98% percent of all listings are viewed online.  I switched two years ago to a brokerage on the forefront of virtual reality and virtual tours of both inside and multiple points outside.  We've killed the other brokerages in those two years and it's really paying off now.
VR link

Title company yesterday told me when my clients signed that they are seeing the major uptick now.   In the last 10 days, I've received 25 FB leads when I normally get 10.

I know your market is a little different.  I just have a hard time with any agent saying they can't sell a home now. Huge sign of weakness for me.  Good agent can sell a home in any market . GL.

 
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adonis said:
As a family looking to move, selling one house in one city and buying in another, we just talked to our RA today to sell and she said not to list until our Shelter in Place guidance has lifted, which is a couple of weeks out yet.  She says you don't want to have your house sitting on the market without views, so plan to list right when the order lifts and people are more likely to come view, or a couple weeks later.

I can only imagine other folks have been getting that same advice in our state.  This is why inventory is so low, and/or stale, in the area we're looking at.

I expect, once the order has lifted, to see a flood of pent-up listings hit the market.  Not sure what that'll do for housing prices, as many folks out looking for houses will likely start looking again in earnest, but with so many folks out of work or worried about income, I can only imagine the imbalance will favor a flood of homes for sale and a shortage of qualified buyers.

As always, just a guess, but it's based on what I'm seeing as someone trying to buy and sell at the same time.  
Does your SIP preclude individual groups coming to look at your house?  California has a special Covid related form for buyers to fill out in order to visit the house which serious buyers will fill out.

I had a listing in Orange County, CA and we had two groups comes in separately on the first Saturday and we accepted an offer two days later.    My listing was a fixer upper so just had one picture on the internet, but even without much virtual marketing we attracted two qualified buyers.  I don't think we took much of a hit due to Covid, and we certainly benefited from the lack of similar inventory out on the market.   

Seems like you might be able to time this so you get your home listed with low competing inventory and then when you are getting ready to buy you can take advantage of the homes coming onto the market.

Also, I don't think you have the typical stigma of days on the market because it can be blamed on Covid-19.  Good luck.

 
adonis said:
As a family looking to move, selling one house in one city and buying in another, we just talked to our RA today to sell and she said not to list until our Shelter in Place guidance has lifted, which is a couple of weeks out yet.  She says you don't want to have your house sitting on the market without views, so plan to list right when the order lifts and people are more likely to come view, or a couple weeks later.

I can only imagine other folks have been getting that same advice in our state.  This is why inventory is so low, and/or stale, in the area we're looking at.

I expect, once the order has lifted, to see a flood of pent-up listings hit the market.  Not sure what that'll do for housing prices, as many folks out looking for houses will likely start looking again in earnest, but with so many folks out of work or worried about income, I can only imagine the imbalance will favor a flood of homes for sale and a shortage of qualified buyers.

As always, just a guess, but it's based on what I'm seeing as someone trying to buy and sell at the same time.  
I am not saying she is wrong but I wouldn't say she is right either.  Of course real estate is local and she should have an idea of what properties are showing and not. 

Purchases are going along strong. I know several brokers in your state and they are all busy with purchase loans. 

Also, inventory nationally and in the areas I am familiar with was low before any of the COVID stuff. 

 
Any FBG's considering selling their rentals because of the possibility of the zombie apocalypse? Historically, rentals have done better in bad times, but this might be the exception. My concern is if the economy does indeed feel the seismic shift that we're experiencing, and this last longer than anticipated. Rentals in the Portland area have gone down by about 8% YOY,  but my major concern is getting people that will be staying a year or longer, and being able to keep paying the rent if the job market continues to deteriorate.

I'm about two years into buying a duplex, with basically no cash flow. It covers expenses and the mortgage, but that's about it. I'm counting on appreciating asset, or at least was. Now I'm looking at an environment where prices good go down for a few years and it might be 5-7 years before they reach where they're at today. All that being said, I'm just looking to have this paid off in 15, then have the residual income.

Thoughts? Talk me off a ledge here. I'm looking for all sorts of viewpoints.  

 
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Any FBG's considering selling their rentals because of the possibility of the zombie apocalypse? Historically, rentals have done better in bad times, but this might be the exception. My concern is if the economy does indeed feel the seismic shift that we're experiencing, and this last longer than anticipated. Rentals in the Portland area have gone down by about 8% YOY,  but my major concern is getting people that will be staying a year or longer, and being able to keep paying the rent if the job market continues to deteriorate.

I'm about two years into buying a duplex, with basically no cash flow. It covers expenses and the mortgage, but that's about it. I'm counting on appreciating asset, or at least was. Now I'm looking at an environment where prices good go down for a few years and it might be 5-7 years before they reach where they're at today. All that being said, I'm just looking to have this paid off in 15, then have the residual income.

Thoughts? Talk me off a ledge here. I'm looking for all sorts of viewpoints.  
Hard to predict and there are valid concerns for sure but also consider the tanking of interest rates. That not only helps buyers buy more home but you may also be able to refi your loan to improve cash flow on the property. 

 
Any FBG's considering selling their rentals because of the possibility of the zombie apocalypse? Historically, rentals have done better in bad times, but this might be the exception. My concern is if the economy does indeed feel the seismic shift that we're experiencing, and this last longer than anticipated. Rentals in the Portland area have gone down by about 8% YOY,  but my major concern is getting people that will be staying a year or longer, and being able to keep paying the rent if the job market continues to deteriorate.

I'm about two years into buying a duplex, with basically no cash flow. It covers expenses and the mortgage, but that's about it. I'm counting on appreciating asset, or at least was. Now I'm looking at an environment where prices good go down for a few years and it might be 5-7 years before they reach where they're at today. All that being said, I'm just looking to have this paid off in 15, then have the residual income.

Thoughts? Talk me off a ledge here. I'm looking for all sorts of viewpoints.  
Have home prices really declined by 8% YoY? All real estate is local, but the market is still hot here in Charlotte. People will still need places to live. Are your tennants paying?

 
@ghostguy123

I bought a property in 2006 for $70000 with $7000 down (probably would be 14k now).  Rent covered everything for 13 years, didn't make a dime during that time.  Tenant moved out and it cost me $25K to remodel, make repairs, and replace the roof.  Had $45k left on the mortgage.  Listed at $135 and cleared $125 at closing.  $125-$35-$45=$45,000.  That's only 42% or 3.2% which isn't that much.

$45,000/13= $3462 a year.  Divide that by my original $7k investment and my return each year on the original invest was 49%.  Go do that in the stock market.
Silly to compare to the stock market. Compare to a full time job. 

 
Hard to predict and there are valid concerns for sure but also consider the tanking of interest rates. That not only helps buyers buy more home but you may also be able to refi your loan to improve cash flow on the property. 
Yeah, I'm in a 30 yr at 3.5% currently. I could get a no cost at 3.125, but holding out for 3.0 or less. 

 
Have home prices really declined by 8% YoY? All real estate is local, but the market is still hot here in Charlotte. People will still need places to live. Are your tennants paying?
To clarify, rental prices, not home prices. But, rental income is what I'm concerned with if holding long term, or at least the ability to pay my nut.

 
Have home prices really declined by 8% YoY? All real estate is local, but the market is still hot here in Charlotte. People will still need places to live. Are your tennants paying?
Tenants in one half of duplex are, the others are moving out after their lease is up next month. I'm going to keep the rents the same as they were slightly under market. The housing market for sales is still very hot here in Portland too, and vacancies are still low, but the declining rental prices are a bit concerning, but not unexpected as we were do for a correction to the overheated market.

 
skycriesmary said:
Tenants in one half of duplex are, the others are moving out after their lease is up next month. I'm going to keep the rents the same as they were slightly under market. The housing market for sales is still very hot here in Portland too, and vacancies are still low, but the declining rental prices are a bit concerning, but not unexpected as we were do for a correction to the overheated market.
Slightly under has worked well for me forever.

After two months, I have no payments out of 104 missing.  My rents are $825 for a 3/2 1300 sq ft with 1 car garage, enclosed W/D. and full yard care.  So they've always rented well.  We turned over three this month and two last month in the same normal time,  one day.

During the recession ten years ago, never had to lower rents and we only had one month where we had over two vacancies.  There just is a lack of supply everywhere because no one built for five years.

 
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skycriesmary said:
Any FBG's considering selling their rentals because of the possibility of the zombie apocalypse? Historically, rentals have done better in bad times, but this might be the exception. My concern is if the economy does indeed feel the seismic shift that we're experiencing, and this last longer than anticipated. Rentals in the Portland area have gone down by about 8% YOY,  but my major concern is getting people that will be staying a year or longer, and being able to keep paying the rent if the job market continues to deteriorate.

I'm about two years into buying a duplex, with basically no cash flow. It covers expenses and the mortgage, but that's about it. I'm counting on appreciating asset, or at least was. Now I'm looking at an environment where prices good go down for a few years and it might be 5-7 years before they reach where they're at today. All that being said, I'm just looking to have this paid off in 15, then have the residual income.

Thoughts? Talk me off a ledge here. I'm looking for all sorts of viewpoints.  
When you say not cash flow, what do you mean?  I personally don't count principal in the equation.  Yes I don't want to come out of pocket monthly, but I don't need to have disposable income now.  Also the example above that I posted that was bumped...I was updated down for 5 years as the value plummeted from $70k to a low of $40k.  Really didn't matter if you have time on your side.

 
Warrior said:
@ghostguy123

I bought a property in 2006 for $70000 with $7000 down (probably would be 14k now).  Rent covered everything for 13 years, didn't make a dime during that time.  Tenant moved out and it cost me $25K to remodel, make repairs, and replace the roof.  Had $45k left on the mortgage.  Listed at $135 and cleared $125 at closing.  $125-$35-$45=$45,000.  That's only 42% or 3.2% which isn't that much.

$45,000/13= $3462 a year.  Divide that by my original $7k investment and my return each year on the original invest was 49%.  Go do that in the stock market.
Silly to compare to the stock market. Compare to a full time job.
I've spent more time on the stock market in the last there months than i did the entire time on the rental property sans the remodel at the end.  I make more money working than I do in the time spent investing.  Problem is that the money accumulates and unless I want a CD at 1% or something, I have to spend the time somewhere.

Lucky for me, my full time job is managing other people's rentals so one more of my own doesn't matter.

 

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