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In my opinion, he won't be used THAT much more than he has been. 10 touches? They won't use him in goal line sets. He's not the blocker Knowshon/Ball is, so he's doubtful to be out there on 3rd downs. But who knows? Also, Fox/Manning are big on dependable blocking and defensive reading, it's doubtful they'd go with the rookie Hillman.
he had 14 in this last game vs San Diego, 20 is certainly possible.
Well duh.
I should have clarified - biased in the sense that you're obviously a Hillman believer, not a skeptic like some of us. I like Hillman's talent and see some definite explosiveness if deployed in a Sproles-ian COP role, but I don't see the lower half to bang between the tackles and consistently break tackles and move the pile. Nothing wrong with that, just think he'll be part of a committee. My point with regard to your bias was that as a supporter of Hillman for so long, it would be silly for you to jump ship when he likely has the widest opening to PT. Certainly did not mean to question your journalistic integrity - my apologies for sending that message. I just think there may be an inherent bias in your reading of the tea leaves, but what do I know?
It's concrete insights like this that makes the AP my go-to source for fantasy news.
He had 14 touches in 2/3 of game action last week, yet 15 touches in an entire game would surprise you?The Broncos average 29 rushing plays a game, if they pare that down to 25ish I would expect at least 15 Hillman, 14 Ball/Moreno. They also average about 6 passes to RBs a game, I would think Hillman would at least get a couple passes too. Maybe he stinks it up and shows he can't handle that, but until that point there is 0 reason to think the guy is going to be getting only 10 touches a game.
He was a little dinged up against the Chargers, but was able to come back into the game after missing a series. He fully participated in practice today. I'll be out at Dove Valley again tomorrow and re-check, but as of right now it's not seen as serious.
I know that Lammey was far from the only "expert" touting Hillman, in particular this week, but this sequence of events shows just how "expert" many of the fantasy experts are, even here at FBG. Sorry to be so bitter, but this is about as big of a miss as you can have. And really, it's not just a one week or one issue situation. At least for me, I'd have been better off for the entire season ignoring the advice of the FBG staff. Don't get me wrong -- they're good and their insights have helped me to have many successful seasons in the past, but it's not been a banner year from my perspective.Thankfully, I managed to avoid the most important piece of advice this season, which concerned Peyton Manning and his poor arm strength. I PM'd a staffer over his assertion in a roundtable that Manning was fool's gold due to short throws, etc., and I explained how the Steelers dominated time of possession in the opener and that prorated per play, Peyton actually had an excellent week. He of course ignored my peasant perspective. I stuck with my gut and even though I may lose today, I'm either a division champ or wildcard pending Week 13 thanks to sticking with Peyton.
To be fair to the staff, earlier in the week there wasn't any suggestion that Moreno would be getting the feature back role come game time. So when you take that into account, we were all just going off some misinformation. However, when CL talks about being at the Broncos facility, chatting to John Fox, Hillman, McGahee and even Jeremiah Johnson, trashes Moreno at every opportunity and basically says Hillman is more or less a lead back for fantasy purposes going forward (with a bit of Lance Ball mixed in, who didn't see any work whatsoever), that's a pretty decent miss.
Thanks for your details. Your last sentence is exactly what I was trying to get at in my post. Staff members need to be more cautious when it comes to relying on so-called inside information. Probably all this will result is more disclaimers preceding information, but I was truly shocked at what happened today because of the seemingly inside information. As often as not, coaches use the media for deception and misinformation. Lesson learned by me.
I did know Moreno would be starting but stuck with Hillman anyway, figuring even if he's the complementary back, 10-15 touches would be enough to put him past the likes of Reggie Bush and an iffy Julio Jones. I'm baffled. I don't blame the FBG staff much. I've watched Hillman this year and thought he looked great. There were some legitimate criticisms of his weaknesses out there, but I suspect even the biggest Hillman critics are a bit surprised to see him get only three touches. I'm sure a lot of people are just left shaking their heads after this one.
)It was even worse than I thought. Those on the Hillman bandwagon are believers, not observers. Hillman has promise, but Fox/Manning were too smart to throw him into this situation. Moreno acquitted himself admirably today.
Me tooGonna cost me today..ouch
