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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (9 Viewers)

N. Korea supplies Russia with 12 million rounds of 152 mm shells: S. Korea

North Korea has continued to provide Russia with artillery shells to support its war against Ukraine, which amounts to more than 12 million rounds of 152 mm shells, according to South Korea's military intelligence authorities Sunday.

North Korea is believed to have provided around 28,000 containers containing weapons and artillery shells to date, according to a report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) submitted to a lawmaker of the main opposition party.

"If calculated with 152 mm single shells, (the number of supplied shells) are presumed to have reached more than 12 million," the DIA under the defense ministry said.

North Korea is likely to send additional troops to Russia in July or August, Seoul's spy agency said in late June. Russia's media reported the North will send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 sappers to Kursk to support reconstruction efforts.

N. Korea's Kim reaffirms unconditional support for Russia in Ukraine war: KCNA

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reaffirmed his unconditional support for all of Russia's actions in its war against Ukraine as he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the North's state media reported Sunday.

Kim made the remarks in a meeting with Lavrov on Saturday, a day after the Russian minister flew to North Korea for his second round of strategic talks with his North Korean counterpart, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).


Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says that Russia’s force deployed against Ukraine has more than 700,000 personnel.

A Never-Ending Supply of Drones Has Frozen the Front Lines in Ukraine

The drones now bring everything from food and water to ammunition, power banks—and, in at least one case, a fire extinguisher—to the front, sparing soldiers trips through the most dangerous part of the battlefield where enemy drones might pick them off.

Ukrainian troops are also beginning to use land drones to move heavier loads than the Vampires can carry.

Drone manufacturers are now experimenting with remotely piloted cars, boats and all-terrain vehicles, which can be used to help with the evacuations of injured and dead soldiers.


Russian mil bloggers are criticizing the recent US Army Tank Platoon manual, essentially saying that if counter-UAS tactics described in this manual are followed in actual combat, "there will shortly be no tank platoon at all."
From another Rus mil blogger: "These recommendations can help only when a tank platoon is attacked in open terrain by a single slow-moving drone, detected in advance and from afar - but not by dozens of FPV drones simultaneously in rough terrain with minefields."


One and a half months after the successful Operation Spiderweb, which targeted and destroyed Russian strategic bombers, our latest satellite imagery shows bomber wreckage still at several airfields, with the largest concentration at Belaya. A thread with updates on airbases:
2/ Additional analysis of bases such as Olenya and Engels-2, where Russian strategic bombers are deployed, shows no visible effort to reinforce the airfields. Olenya appears more cleared from debris than Belaya Airbase, but bomber wreckage remains visible on the apron.
3/ At Khalino Airbase, previously targeted by Ukrainian forces, Russian troops appear to have completed or nearly completed around 10 reinforced shelters with soil cover, 12 concrete shelters without it, and 8 hangar-style structures positioned on the aprons.
4/ At Saky Airbase in Crimea, Russian forces appear to have completed at least 12 concrete bunker-style structures (shelters), now actively used by the Russian Air Force. Inside these reinforced shelters, we’ve identified both jets and larger drones, including the Orion.
5/ And finally, we verified once again that Dzhankoi airbase, also located in Crimea near a key railroad logistics hub and very active in 2022, currently has no jets, helicopters, or transport aircraft present. No efforts to reinforce the airfield have been observed either.
6/ To summarize, Russian forces are being forced to adapt by either building fortified structures or abandoning vulnerable airfields despite their logistical convenience. At the same time, these measures appear reactive and lack a coordinated approach across all potential targets


According to Kyiv’s Regional Military Administration, 12 anti-Shahed interceptor drone teams of the “Clear Sky” unit of the @usf_army have intercepted nearly 700 aerial targets in Kyiv region since the unit was founded in early April. Approximately 500 of those targets were intercepted since June.


According to European Pravda, Major General Christian Freuding (Head of the Situation Centre Ukraine in the German MoD) confirmed today in front of journalists in Kyiv that Germany is funding Ukrainian-made interceptor UAVs.

IIRC he is the first German official to publicly confirm this investment as part of the Danish model following the announcement back in May 2025 that Germany would finance Ukrainian-made far-reaching weapon systems. Prior to him, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had already publicly announced that Germany would finance these drones.

In all likelihood, we are talking about the VB140 Flamingo. A few weeks ago, WELT was the first to report that Germany is going to finance interceptor UAVs, or more precisely this model before the type of drone was publicly confirmed by Ukrainian officials.

Russia Considers Retiring its Sole Aircraft Carrier

The Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier has suffered several accidents from 2009 to 2019, and has been undergoing overhaul and modernization works since 2017.
The Russian Navy is likely to pull the plug off the repairs that are keeping afloat its sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, ending a brief yet eventful era of Soviet naval aviation. Izvestia quoted Russian Navy, United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) and Ministry of Defense (RuMoD) officials in deep background, who said the “physically outdated carrier may be decommissioned and sent for disposal,” while claiming its repair and maintenance has been suspended for a while.

Naval experts quoted by Izvestia are divided on their opinion about the relevance of an aircraft carrier, but the publication did report sentiment in the Russian Navy that advised against pouring resources in maintaining the ship. It must be noted that the RuMoD and the Russian Navy’s Main Command did not officially confirm to Izvestia the info about the decision, but former Russian naval commanders and experts reflect the thinking in the community.

Former Pacific Fleet chief Admiral Sergei Avakyants told Izvestia that carriers are obsolete and the Russian Navy must sell it to scraps, if a decision is made not to continue repairs. He described the carrier as “very expensive and ineffective,” adding that “the future belongs to carriers of robotic systems and unmanned systems.”

Naval expert Ilya Kramnik from the Center for the Study of Strategic Planning, while differing on the relevance of aircraft carriers, admitted that the opinion in military circles is against further modernization and repair of the Admiral Kuznetsov. “This is a fairly old ship, it served in not the best years for our fleet, which did not add ‘youth’ to it. The cruiser has a fairly old design and not the most reliable, as operating experience has shown, power plant,” Kramnik explained.

Others, like Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin and Kramnik, opine otherwise. This reflects the broad political and global strategic vision of the Russian state that never had expeditionary and power project goals, unlike the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States.
 
France is Russia's 'main enemy' in Europe, French army head says

In space, Russian satellite manoeuvres set out to “hinder our satellite trajectories, get close and jam them, get close and spy on them”, Burkhard said.

At sea, he said Russian nuclear attack submarines regularly enter the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean “obviously seeking to monitor areas that are important to us but also to the British”.

In the air there are frequent “frictions and interactions” with Russian aircraft over the Black Sea, Syria, the Mediterranean, and “sometimes” the North Atlantic, he added.

French army chief says Russia 'will pose a real threat before 2030'

The highest-ranking French officer began by noting that "crises are multiplying and overlapping." "We used to say that one crisis would chase away another. Today, that is no longer truly the case," he emphasized, voicing his concerns about "ratchet effect." There will be "no going back (...), there is no point in thinking: 'I'll just keep my head down and things will go back to how they were and I'll be able to resume my business as usual.' (...) We should not try to scare people, but there is a real need for awareness," he added, expressing a rather pessimistic view of the state of the world.

However, the chief of the armed forces focused primarily on security issues in Europe and the threat posed by Russia. "The Russian army is a complete model of an army, down to the smallest detail. And, in the Russian army today, I do not see any missing capabilities, from electronic warfare jamming to surface-to-air defense systems to artillery systems," he warned. The same applies to Russia's nuclear arsenal, which he said was supported by "an extremely robust, tested doctrine and chain of command."
Moreover, "the war in Ukraine is existential for Russia, and it is determined to achieve what it has set as its objectives, or at least what Putin has set as his objectives," he added. "Weakening Europe and dismantling NATO, these are Russia's goals," he stressed. As a result, "despite the incredible losses it has suffered," Russia "will continue to rearm" and, "at this rate," it will have established "before 2030 (...) a force that will constitute a real threat at our borders, on the eastern flank of Europe," he warned.

How drones and video-game techniques are coming together in Ukraine’s war

A drone operator who destroys a T-90M tank–Russia’s most advanced combat vehicle–with a disposable First Person View (FPV) drone gets enough points to make his unit eligible to receive 15 more (which would cost the armed forces around $10,000 in total). The system gives operators an incentive to find high-value targets and means that the units scoring kills are rewarded with prompt resupply. Even though Ukraine produced 1.5m drones last year, there are never enough.
The elite 414th Marine Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle Strike Unmanned Systems Battalion, better known as “Birds of Magyar” after their charismatic commander, Robert Brovdi (callsign Magyar), have implemented this system to good effect. Established in 2022 as a platoon–a relatively small formation–Birds of Magyar became a full regiment at the end of 2024. It now accounts for 8% of the Russian armour that Ukraine destroys, according to official figures. In April the unit rose to the top of the leader board with 16,298 points, up from second place, and it has stayed there since. In June Mr Brovdi was appointed overall head of Ukraine’s unmanned forces.

No Russian warships in Ukrainian seas

There are no Russian warships currently present in the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea, while one Russian missile carrier remains in the Mediterranean Sea.
This was reported by Ukrinform, citing the Ukrainian Navy’s operational update posted on Facebook as of 06:00, July 13, 2025.

“There are no enemy warships in the Black Sea; no enemy warships in the Sea of Azov,” the military report states.
According to the Ukrainian Navy, there are currently three Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea, including one Kalibr cruise missile carrier with a total possible salvo of up to four missiles.

Video: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1944123416019448252

Footage of a German-supplied Rheinmetall Skynex AAA system in Ukrainian service shredding a Russian Shahed-136 attack drone with 35mm AHEAD airburst rounds.

‘It’s blitz, blitz, blitz’: Kyiv’s shelters fill up as Russia intensifies aerial attacks

With each fresh onslaught Russia exceeds its own grim tally. In June 2024 it fired 580 rockets and drones at Ukraine; in June 2025 it was 5,209. On Wednesday it sent a record 728 drones and 13 Kinzhal and Iskander missiles. Most were directed at Lutsk, a city near the Polish border. Thursday’s 10-hour raid on Kyiv killed two people and injured 28. According to the UN, Ukrainian civilian casualties are at a three-year high.

EDF colonel: Attacking Russia's shadow fleet could become a new war tactic

Attacking Russia's shadow fleet, which transports fossil fuels while dodging sanctions, around the world could become a new tactic in the war, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces' Intelligence Center.

At the weekly briefing on Friday, Kiviselg highlighted this year's successful non-conventional attacks on Russia's shadow fleet. These have taken place in both the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, near the coasts of Libya, Italy, and Turkey, and most recently on July 6 near the port of Ust-Luga in the Gulf of Finland.

"The exact method of the attacks is still unclear, but experts believe the most likely scenario is the use of time-delayed underwater mines that are attached to the hull of the ship. Such mines typically do not cause the ship to sink in most cases, but depending on the vessel's cargo and the placement of the mine, a complete sinking cannot be ruled out," said the head of military intelligence.

The colonel said the direct impact of the attacks on combat operations is indirect and rather minor, as Russia's fleet is believed to be between 700 and 900 vessels.

However, they have highlighted Moscow's vulnerability.

"If these attacks continue, they could in the long term negatively impact the use of the shadow fleet in circumventing sanctions and thereby also the financing of the Russian Federation's war machine," Kiviselg noted.

He added that no one has claimed responsibility for these attacks so far.

Ukraine says it killed Russian agents suspected of assassinating intelligence officer

Ukraine’s Security Service said Sunday they had killed Russian special service agents suspected of gunning down a fellow officer in Kyiv earlier this week, saying it believed Russia’s Federal Security Service was responsible.
SBU officer Ivan Voronych was shot dead in Kyiv on Thursday morning in what authorities told CNN was an apparent assassination.
The suspects - a man and a woman - tried to “lay low” after the shooting, the SBU said in a statement Sunday.
However, SBU and National Police officers established their whereabouts in the Kyiv region, the statement added.
 

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he will send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine, saying they are necessary to defend the country because Russian President Vladimir Putin "talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening." Trump did not give a number of Patriots he plans to send to Ukraine, but he said the United States would be reimbursed for their cost by the European Union. The U.S. president has grown increasingly disenchanted with Putin because the Russian leader has resisted Trump's attempts to negotiate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
 
The president announced the plan during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. The president also laid out a new deadline for Russia — threatening trade consequences if no peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days. “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” Trump said. “Tariffs at about 100% you’d call them secondary tariffs. You know what that means.” A White House official clarified to CNN that when the president referred to “secondary tariffs,” he meant 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy Russian oil.

As for the weapons, in addition to Patriot missile batteries — the top item on Kyiv’s wish list and one Trump said Sunday was vital to Ukraine’s defenses — the US could also sell short-range missiles, Howitzer rounds and medium-range air-to-air missiles to NATO members, which would then be transferred to Ukraine, a person familiar with the deliberations said.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump
 
How will the US defense industry handle that since the M.O. is extremely high quality, but relatively few pieces of hardware. If the SHTF how fast can manufacturing in the west ramp up?
 
The president announced the plan during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. The president also laid out a new deadline for Russia — threatening trade consequences if no peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days. “We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” Trump said. “Tariffs at about 100% you’d call them secondary tariffs. You know what that means.” A White House official clarified to CNN that when the president referred to “secondary tariffs,” he meant 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy Russian oil.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump
50 days is a ridiculously generous amount of time for Russia to continue murdering Ukrainians before suffering any repercussions from this deadline. And that's if the deadline doesn't change, or if posturing and flattery don't succeed in getting the deadline lifted. So frustrating.
 
How will the US defense industry handle that since the M.O. is extremely high quality, but relatively few pieces of hardware. If the SHTF how fast can manufacturing in the west ramp up?
Especially if we have to fight China, which currently has exponentially more manufacturing capacity. It's our biggest strategic weakness at the moment, IMO.
 
Donald Trump asked Volodymyr Zelenskyy if Ukraine could hit Moscow, say people briefed on call
Donald Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory, even asking Volodymyr Zelenskyy whether he could strike Moscow if the US provided long-range weapons, according to people briefed on the discussions. The conversation, which took place during the July 4 call between the US and Ukrainian leaders, marks a sharp departure from Trump’s previous stance on Russia’s war and his campaign promise to end US involvement in foreign conflicts.
link if you hit a paywall: https://archive.ph/OpKGf#selection-2295.0-2307.277
 
How will the US defense industry handle that since the M.O. is extremely high quality, but relatively few pieces of hardware. If the SHTF how fast can manufacturing in the west ramp up?
No, we can not... not easily.

I remember a very long time ago being in an online conversation (I am 90% sure it was on here) where we had announced a big purchase of attack subs. So many people were complaining that we were buying these subs that had no use for our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, which at the time, we were right in the middle of at pretty much the height. My position was that you can't wait until you need these weapon systems with a near peer enemy to build them as they take time considering the incredible complexity of the manufacturing. I was much more optimistic about our relationship with China back then but you never know what shifts in geopolitics will happen that cause things to change.

Keeping in mind shipbuilding, we are laughably lagging in capacity. China has 232 times the shipbuilding capacity that we do. We can not compete on building ships with them. Not a chance. We can not ramp up to match it either. The way for us to keep pace is really in naval drones and AI using American ingenuity. (Shawn Ryan had a great interview that is very insightful with Dino Mavrookas a former SEAL who is now CEO of Saronic Tech on this exact subject)

I would point out a few things from my thinking:

1. The way that Ukraine fights is not the way the US and NATO would fight and the battlefield would not be the same. So even though we can learn significant lessons from this war and change/adapt accordingly, it would be a mistake to blindly take Ukrainian lessons and apply them to the US and NATO. The biggest example of this would be airpower. The Ukrainians had a group of Soviet era aircraft which was outdated and outnumbered against their Russian counterparts. The western fleet of F-15's, F-16's, F-18's, Typhoon's, Gripen's, Rafale's let alone F-22's and F-35's outmatch anything the Russians or Chinese have. Gaining air superiority is a major objective for the West that could be obtained where as the Ukrainians can not hope to even with the influx of older F-16's.

2. The Ukrainians have been given largely hand me down's and in most instances, not the top of the line equipment that we would be using. Further, the Ukrainians, though now obviously battle-hardened, have not had the level of training that the west undertakes. I am not disrespecting the Ukrainians at all, they have mounted a great defense of their nation when no one gave them a chance to be successful. They have been resourceful and adaptable which is truly at a level of excellence that is as best as you can find through the history of war. However, the level of training their soldiers had at the start of the war and the new recruits get going in now is not on the level of the west and certainly not the US. The equipment that they make do with is not the same that the west militaries would have.

3. We have learned and are making changes. Artillery, as the piece brought up, is a good point. Yes, having a ton of Excalibur shells and not enough normal just shoot it shells is obviously something we can't do. The ability to produce shells has been exposed as a huge weakness. Five new facilities were opened last year to produce 155 shells.

4. We need a mix. We need the qualitative edge as we will never have the quantity. Airpower is another good way to look at it- the way that we will fight in the air will the loyal wingmans will be a way to amplify the F-47 usage without having to produce as many F-47's (which will be more expensive than the loyal wingmans) as well as having F-15's flying quite a ways back as missile trucks. Production of F-15EX's is a sort of "having enough good and not perfect" as the article says.

5. AI and drones are the future- in space, air, land, sea and under the sea. A number of small AI driven drones can achieve more than a single destroyer. Ukraine is undoubtedly the leader in what I would call 'small' drone tech but the stuff we are building is a whole different level.

If you find this interesting, go listen/watch the Shawn Ryan interview with Dino.

 
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3072ezle7yo
Ukrainians are tired, run down by the emotional toll of the invasion and the physical toll of sleepless nights due to air raid sirens, explosions and the screeching sounds of attack drones. "It was a long night," is a common remark you will hear in Kyiv. So, US President Donald Trump's decision to give Russia 50 days to agree to a ceasefire or face "very severe tariffs… at about 100%" has not gone down well. One of Ukraine's most prominent politicians, Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, asked "why such a delay?" while speaking on German television. Russian attacks had become "more intense", he said, and more people could be killed in that 50-day period.
 
Russia 'didn’t care' about Trump's weapons for Ukraine, tariff threats, official says
Russia continued its nightly bombardment of Ukraine overnight into Tuesday, shortly after President Donald Trump announced his decision to supply Ukraine with new military equipment and White House threats of further economic measures against Moscow. Ukraine's air force said Russia targeted several regions overnight with 267 drones, of which around 200 were Shahed attack drones and the rest decoys. The air force said it shot down or otherwise suppressed 244 drones. Twenty-three drones impacted across seven locations, with falling debris reported in nine locations, the air force said.
 
Patriots to move to Kyiv 'as quickly as possible', says NATO top commander

Preparations are underway to quickly transfer additional Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, NATO's top military commander Alexus Grynkewich said on Thursday, as the country suffers some of the heaviest Russian attacks of the war so far. "We are working very closely with the Germans on the Patriot transfer", he told a conference in the German city of Wiesbaden. "The guidance that I have been given has been to move out as quickly as possible."
 
Ukraine seeks new round of talks with Russia

Ukraine has proposed a new round of peace talks with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, in a move aimed at restarting negotiations that halted last month. Senior security official Rustem Umerov has offered to meet the Russian side next week, Zelensky said in his evening address, adding that everything had to be done to get a ceasefire. Zelenksy also repeated his readiness to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin face-to-face. "A meeting at the leadership level is needed to truly ensure peace," he said.
 
Australia delivers Abrams tanks to Ukraine for war with Russia

Australia's government said on Saturday it had delivered M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a A$245 million ($160 million) package to help the country defend itself against Russia in their ongoing war. Australia, one of the largest non-NATO contributors to Ukraine, has been supplying aid, ammunition and defence equipment since Moscow invaded its neighbour in February 2022. Ukraine has taken possession of most of the 49 tanks given by Australia, and the rest will be delivered in coming months, said Defence Minister Richard Marles.
Australia has also banned exports of alumina and aluminium ores, including bauxite, to Russia, and has sanctioned about 1,000 Russian individuals and entities. Australia's centre-left Labor government this year labelled Russia as the aggressor in the conflict and called for the war to be resolved on Kyiv's terms.
 
Fire, flight diversions reported near Moscow as Ukraine launches drone attack on Russia's capital

A fire broke out in Moscow Oblast overnight on July 20 as Ukraine reportedly launched a drone attack targeting the Russian capital, local Telegram channels reported. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin reported that at least 21 Ukrainian drones were launched toward Moscow since 6 p.m. local time on July 19. Sobyanin added that emergency crews were heading to the scene of the downed drones, without mentioning the extent of the damage caused. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its air defenses shot down 93 Ukrainian drones, including 19 over Moscow Oblast and another 16 en route to the region. Later in the day on July 20, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed an additional eight drones were downed shot down over Moscow Oblast in the daytime, five of which were allegedly en route to Moscow.
 

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