*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (8 Viewers)

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Analyst Says Clips of Shenzhen, China, Found in Russian Shahed Decoy - Business Insider https://share.google/d3226iXtK0YySW9NU

 

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Ukraine Made Own Western Training Longer, Shows Focus on Quality - Business Insider https://share.google/TrcNNzXdAORMvS9hL

 

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Russian energy facilities targeted in drone attacks | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-energy-facilities-targeted-drone-attacks-2025-09-01/

 

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Russia’s Top Tank Factory Runs on 260+ Western Machines, Intel Says https://share.google/TJ7O8Y91bgFJSp9vj

 

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Ukraine Uses New Flamingo Missile for First Time: Report - Newsweek https://share.google/EEueNp8CcC3q30FQj

 

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Germany becomes top European defense exporter with €12.8 billion in 2024 mostly directed to Ukraine https://share.google/AKTugZph17YZexNlk

 

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Putin blames West for Ukraine war at China-led SCO summit | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera https://share.google/z1Ni48dz5hgEtVb6b

 

[fatness]

Trump administration approves sale of 3,350 extended range missiles to Ukraine

There's a catch with those missiles, though.

John Hardie
@JohnH105
The Pentagon reportedly is blocking Ukrainian ATACMS & Storm Shadow missile strikes inside Russia, undercutting Trump’s own leverage vis-a-vis Moscow. The provision of ERAM is great but would be more impactful if Ukraine’s hands weren’t tied…

 

[fatness]

Von Der Leyen Flight Affected by Alleged Russian GPS Jamming

A plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was disrupted by jamming that authorities suspect was the result of Russian interference in Bulgaria.
Authorities in Bulgaria have determined that the GPS jamming incident, which affected the plane’s navigation system, was likely initiated by Russia, according to a commission spokesperson. The plane landed safely after the interference affected the airport in the Bulgarian city of Plovdiv, the spokesperson said.

More on that:

The commission received “information from Bulgarian authorities that they suspect this blatant interference was carried out by Russia,” said European Commission Deputy Chief Spokesperson Arianna Podestà. The Kremlin has denied the allegation, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov telling The Financial Times, which first reported on the story, “your information is incorrect.” The plane landed safely, the European Commission spokesperson said. A source familiar with the situation told CNN the pilots landed the plane using paper maps.

The world will never outgrow the need for paper maps.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

About 2,000 N.K. troops deployed to Russia estimated to have been killed: NIS

The spy agency estimated around 2,000 North Korean troops dispatched to Russia for combat in Ukraine were killed, lawmakers said Tuesday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared the assessment during a closed-door briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee, Reps. Park Sun-won and Lee Seong-kweun told reporters.

The NIS said Pyongyang is planning to additionally send some 6,000 soldiers to Russia in its third batch of troop deployment to aid Moscow's war with Ukraine, while around 1,000 combat engineers have already arrived in Russia.

The existing troops are stationed in the "rear front as reserve forces," the agency said, pointing to the possibility of a leadership change among the dispatched troops.

"North Korea revealed it sustained around 350 deaths in the first and second rounds of deployment, while the NIS reported at least 600 deaths in a briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee in April," Lee said, noting that the NIS has increased its estimate of the death toll to 2,000 after a "comprehensive review" with other countries.

Since October last year, North Korea has sent around 13,000 troops and conventional weapons to support Russia's war efforts.

Russia to boost gas supplies to China, signs up new pipeline but price unclear

Russia agreed to supply additional volumes of natural gas to China and signed a memorandum on building the vast Power of Siberia 2 pipeline but has yet to agree on pricing for one of the world's most expensive gas projects, Gazprom said on Tuesday.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2025

The Russian military command reportedly redeployed relatively "elite" naval infantry and airborne (VDV) forces to Donetsk Oblast from northern Sumy Oblast and the Kherson direction. A Ukrainian drone unit operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that the Russian military command redeployed several units from Kursk Oblast, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), to reinforce Russian offensive operations toward Dobropillya. A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Group of Forces claimed on August 18 that the Russian command redeployed elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment and the 155th and 40th naval infantry brigades from northern Sumy Oblast to another unspecified direction. An OSINT analyst on X (formerly Twitter) reported on August 30 that the Russian command redeployed elements of the 40th and 155th naval infantry brigades (both of the Pacific Fleet) and likely elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) to Donetsk Oblast. The OSINT analyst also stated that there are reports that elements of the 11th Separate VDV Brigade and 76th VDV Division were "spotted nearby" in Donetsk Oblast after the Russian military command "urgently" deployed these elements to ”the hottest direction.” The OSINT source noted that the exact axis of attack of the redeployed VDV elements is still unclear. The Russian command also reportedly redeployed elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) from Kherson Oblast to Bakhmut, possibly to reinforce Russian offensive efforts in Kostyantynivka or Siversk. ISW previously observed reports that elements of the 40th and 155th naval infantry brigades, 11th Separate VDV Brigade, and 76th VDV Division were operating in northern Sumy Oblast as of late August 2025. ISW previously observed reports that elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment were operating in northern Sumy Oblast as of August 11. ISW previously observed reports in November 2024 that the 11th VDV Brigade formed a special battalion staffed by North Korean troops for combat operations in Kursk Oblast, and ISW assessed at the time that North Korean troops training in Russia were likely training with elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and 11th VDV Brigades.

The reported redeployments suggest that the Russian Fall 2025 offensive will focus on efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Dobropillya, Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka areas. The Russian command’s redeployment of forces from northern Sumy Oblast to Donetsk Oblast suggests that Russia is deprioritizing its offensive operations in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces have intensified efforts to envelop Pokrovsk, advance toward Dobropillya, and bypass Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast fortress belt from the west. These efforts have resulted in significant manpower losses, likely requiring the Russian military command to redeploy forces to the area. Russia’s Fall 2024 offensive also focused on offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction - demonstrating Russia's slow progress in achieving its objectives on the battlefield at tremendous human and material costs.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian drone strikes strangle Putin’s fuel supplies

Kyiv has been carrying out such strikes for more than a year but the effects are now being felt more than ever, as the cumulative impact of sanctions and an absence of Western technical support makes the damage harder to repair.
According to Philip Ingram, a retired British army intelligence officer, the tactic is “a crucial part of the war” championed by Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.
“He’s got hold of the old Allied Special Operations Executive manual from WWII and he’s adapted that to this conflict — attacking the Russians at an operational level, targeting their ability to continue the tactical battle by supplying the military materials and manpower,” Ingram said.
“[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy has said Ukraine cannot win in a straight tactical fight on the front lines in the East, but whoever dominates the operational level tends to win the overall conflict.”
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian SBU official told POLITICO that the drone strikes are a form of "sanctions" that are designed to "reduce the inflow of foreign currency that Russia needs to wage war."

But Russian officials have been forced to extend the ban on gasoline sales abroad through to September as a result, depriving the Kremlin of much-needed foreign currency. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at intelligence firm Kpler, said that was a clear consequence of some of Russia’s largest plants being knocked out.
The destruction at Rosneft’s Ryazan and Lukoil’s Volgograd refineries has “pushed an estimated 700–750,000 barrels a day of capacity offline, or about 10 percent of total [production],” Falakshahi said.
According to figures shared with POLITICO, Kpler estimates that Russia’s overall crude refining throughput is now down to roughly 5.1 million barrels a day, well below the 5.6 million typical for this time of year. Adding to the headaches for industry chiefs, many plants are due to undergo maintenance this month, potentially meaning extended downtime as they struggle to meet domestic demand.
Illia Neskhodovskyi, lead analyst at Ukraine’s National Interests Protection Network, said gasoline shortages were already widespread throughout Russia: “There is not enough gasoline in Karelia, there is not enough gasoline in the Khabarovsk Territory, there is not enough gasoline in the Far East, there is not enough gasoline in Primorsky Krai. If we look at the price tags, the price is somewhere around 20-25 percent more than the official statistics give, so these are real losses for Russians and for carriers.”

Tina Dolbaia, an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the refinery attacks could “escalate from a temporary hiccup into a budgetary dilemma” for Moscow if they continue through the fall.
“So far, the Russians seem to be mitigating the impact of these attacks by purchasing petroleum from Belarus to offset domestic shortages and pressuring refineries to intensify their maintenance work,” she said.
“However, if the attacks remain frequent and more destructive as Ukraine continues to develop its long-range capabilities, Russia’s capacity to repair damaged refineries will be further strained … This, in turn, could put downward pressure on global oil prices and impact Moscow’s budget revenues from the energy sector-related taxes.”
According to Ingram, the British former intelligence officer, the Russian economy is “not on the brink of collapse” — yet.
“We’re probably talking about another 12-18 months until Putin gets really worried,” he said. “But if the Ukrainians increase their activity, that could certainly come down very, very quickly.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2025

Russia continues to feel the economic impacts of secondary sanctions against Russian oil-and-gas importers and of recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries. Bloomberg reported on September 2 that sources who received offers from Russian crude oil exporters stated that Russian exporters are offering Urals crude to Indian importers at a discount of $3 to $4 per barrel, compared to Brent, on a delivered basis for cargo shipments in late September to October 2025. Bloomberg reported that sources stated that Russian exporters were offering Indian importers a discount of around $2.50 a barrel during the week of August 24 to 30 and a discount of $1 in July 2025. Russia is likely offering Indian importers discounted crude oil to ensure that India continues to purchase crude from Russia despite Western secondary sanctions against India, including a 50 percent US tariff against Indian exports to the United States. Russia is currently selling crude oil below market price, which will decrease the incoming flow of foreign funds into the Russian economy and deplete Russia's primary source of wealth unless Russia significantly increases its export of crude oil.

Russia and occupied Ukraine are also facing acute gasoline shortages due to Ukrainian strikes. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration claimed on September 2 that some gas stations in occupied Kherson Oblast are experiencing shortages of AI-92 and AI-95 (premium) gasoline and that gasoline prices are increasing due to shortages. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Oleksiy Kharchenko reported that occupied Luhansk Oblast is also experiencing shortages of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline and that the Luhansk Oblast occupation administration claimed that the shortage is due to a reduction in gasoline supply and a simultaneous increase in demand. Kurilsky Municipal Okrug Head Konstantin Istomin reported on August 25 that Russian authorities suspended the sale of A-92 gasoline to residents in the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin Oblast. The Kremlin extended on August 14 a temporary ban on processed gasoline exports for all exporters through September 2025 and for non-producers through October 2025, a move that seeks to blunt a domestic price surge for gasoline due to Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine eyes joint drone production deal with the Philippines - Naval News

Ukraine is looking to deepen defense cooperation with the Philippines through a planned agreement that could pave the way for joint drone production.

www.navalnews.com

Ukrainian style drones could present a serious challenge to the People’s Republic of China, who have been increasingly assertive in the West Philippine Sea. Overall the Philippines, despite several recent warship acquisitions, will be outnumbered and outgunned by the PRC. But as the war in the Black Sea has shown, small inexpensive uncrewed platforms can reshape the naval arena and create viable ways to blunt a conventional navy’s power. It is the classic application of asymmetric warfare”.

H I SUTTON

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelenskiy’s Allies Fear Putin Is Readying New Assault in Ukraine

European leaders are increasingly concerned that Russia will mount a new offensive on Ukraine as they sit down with president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss security guarantees for his country.
At their security council meeting in Toulon last week, German and French officials discussed the Russian troops massing outside Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian-held stronghold in the eastern Donetsk region, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.
Zelenskiy said on Friday that Russia had relocated 100,000 soldiers to the frontline outside the city, which the Kremlin’s forces have tried to encircle and seize without success for more than a year.
Capturing Pokrovsk would open the way to a Russian assault on the much larger cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as Moscow seeks control over the entire Donetsk region.

Russians pulling reinforcements to Pokrovsk sector, Dobropillia salient

Bielskyi also noted that Russians are redeploying troops from Sumy and Kherson directions into Donetsk region.

“They are bringing in marines, motorized rifle battalions, infantry, and remnants of units they had held in reserve for the entire summer campaign. Most of this reinforcement is going to the Pokrovsk sector and the Dobropillia salient, which they desperately want to keep under control in order to advance westward to take Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and eastward to try to encircle Kostiantynivka. They are already attempting to move east to cut Ukrainian logistics routes,” Bielskyi added.

Europe split over troop pledges ahead of talks on postwar Ukraine force

According to two people briefed on the discussions, the coalition is roughly divided into three groups: one willing to deploy troops, including the UK; one that has decided against, such as Italy; and a majority still undecided, such as Germany.
An Elysée official said countries willing and able to provide security guarantees had completed technical work. “Today we have enough contributions to be able to tell the Americans that we are ready to assume our responsibilities, provided that they assume theirs,” the official said.

Encouraged by Trump, Europeans plan to send troops to secure postwar Ukraine

With offers from the Trump administration of airpower and intelligence, European leaders say they finally have the muscular backstop they need to send military forces into postwar Ukraine. Now, they just need someone to stop the war.
For months, France and Britain led a “coalition of the willing” to draft scenarios for securing Ukraine in any truce with Russia, including the presence of European troops. Kyiv’s chief backers lobbied hard for a U.S. role and, after a cavalry of European leaders visited the White House, they now seem to have it, according to European and American officials briefed on the plans.

U.S. officials have told European counterparts that Washington could provide additional air defenses, including help enforcing a no-fly zone, as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, said four officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.

Even as they work to firm up plans for security guarantees — including with a leaders’ meeting in Paris on Thursday — the Europeans can’t quite agree on precisely what they’re willing to do in Ukraine. They are calculating that in the long run, a ceasefire is inevitable and that in the short term, a commitment to security guarantees would give Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the confidence of Western support if and when he enters into talks with Russia over potentially painful territorial concessions.
The European approach calls for securing the skies above Ukraine and the Black Sea along its coast, and deploying “a reassurance force” on the ground. According to officials with direct knowledge of the plans, that would include a “demonstration” element — troops based far from the front to serve as a disincentive against future attacks — and a “regeneration” element to train and rebuild the Ukrainian military and help turn it into what European Union leaders are calling a “steel porcupine.”

“The U.S. backstop hinges on Europeans taking charge,” a European official said. “So it’s now the moment for them to show what they can put on the table.”
An Élysée Palace official said there would be a U.S. presence at Thursday’s meeting. The Europeans will convey that they have the resources and planning to be “not only willing and able, but also ready,” the French official said. And they will seek confirmation that their coalition “indeed has the support of the Americans.”

Sweden allows sale of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, but only after war ends

Sweden does not rule out selling modern Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. However, this would only be possible after the war with Russia ends, states Sweden’s Defense Minister, Pål Jonson, according to Breaking Defense.

"We have a dialogue also with Ukraine, and since they certainly expressed an interest for the Gripen system … predominantly Gripen Echo, the new version that Sweden, Brazil are operating as well — a future sale is possible. That case … would be more of a long-term endeavor or building a common air force capability as well," said Hultqvist.

He emphasized that the delivery of aircraft directly depends on the end of the war in Ukraine.

At the same time, according to the Swedish minister, this condition does not apply to older Gripen C/D aircraft.

Sweden’s Defense Minister added that the transfer of Gripen C/D jets could be discussed and that he had spoken with his Ukrainian counterpart during his visit to Kyiv the previous week.

Zelensky: Korean scenario for ending war in Ukraine possible, but fails to meet security needs

“South Korea is an example of the triumph of values. Its development is incomparable to that of North Korea, which has suffered a true economic and civilizational decay. South Korea has made a leap forward in terms of civilization, technology, and economy because it cultivates humanism. That’s what matters most for a country—you must focus on people,” Zelensky emphasized.

In his view, while a Korean-style end to the war is conceivable for Ukraine, the threat posed by North Korea is not comparable to that of Russia, and South Korea has significantly stronger security guarantees.
“Anything is possible, but we must acknowledge that South Korea has a major ally—the United States. And believe me, they have numerous air defense systems that ensure their safety. Frankly, Ukraine is striving to obtain reliable security guarantees, such as the Patriot systems South Korea possesses. However, this comparison has its limits: North Korea’s population is just over 20 million, while Russia’s exceeds 140 million. The threats from Russia are five, six, even ten times greater. An exact replication of the South Korean model is unlikely to meet Ukraine’s security needs,” Zelensky said, adding that he greatly admires South Korea’s economic model.

But in a sign of the lack of clarity heading into the meeting, officials in Germany — one of Europe’s largest military powers — reacted negatively to comments this week by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission. She told the FT that capitals were working on “pretty precise plans” for potential military deployments to Ukraine with a “clear road map”.

 

[fatness]

Trump to speak with Zelensky Thursday as momentum to end Russia’s war in Ukraine stalls

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he’ll soon speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as momentum toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine has largely stalled and left the White House frustrated. “I’m having a conversation with him very shortly, and I’ll know pretty much what we’re going to be doing. … I’ll be speaking to him over the next few days, and we’re going to see,” Trump told reporters during an Oval Office meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki. The White House later clarified that the phone call between Trump and Zelensky was scheduled for Thursday and added that there is no call with Russian President Vladimir Putin currently set.

Asked about his message for Putin, whom he’s given repeated “two-week” deadlines, Trump said he had none – but offered a subtle warning. “I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand, and he’ll make a decision one way or the other. Whatever his decision is, we’ll either be happy about it, or unhappy. And if we’re unhappy about it, you’ll see things happen,” he said.