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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

Good News/Bad News

@ThreshedThought: Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours. https://twitter.com/aggregateosint/status/1515817551149912074

@ThreshedThought: It also appears the Mariupol is going to fall over the same time period - 24/48 hours. But it’s done it’s job - it’s kept the Russians tied up enabling the Ukrainians to stage their counterattack. 

The defenders of Mariupol will be lauded forevermore in Ukraine.
Last stands are always sad, but they’re giving of themselves so their friends and family can live free. Slava Ukraini!

 
Putin's top brass killed since the invasion of Ukraine:

  • Major Dmitry Toptun
  • Major Alexey Osokin
  • Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev
  • Major General Vitaly Gerasimov
  • Major General Andrei Kolesnikov
  • Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky
  • Colonel Nikolay Ovcharenko
  • Colonel Sergei Porokhyna
  • Colonel Sergei Sukharev
  • Colonel Andrei Zakharov
  • Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky
  • Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Agarkov
  • Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov
  • Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov
  • Major Viktor Maksimchuk
  • General Magomed Tushaev
  • Colonel Alexei Sharov
  • Colonel Yuri Medvedev
  • Colonel Denis Kurilo
  • Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Kornik
  • Major General Vladimir Frolov
  • Tank battalion commander Miras Bashakov
  • Major-General Oleg Mityaev
  • Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev
  • Colonel Ivan Grishin
  • Captain Alexander Chirva
 
Captain Chirva was commander of the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov, which is part of the Black Sea Fleet. No details of his death are known. However, There were reports that the Caesar Kunikov was hit by Ukranian fire on March 24. 

it sounds like another ship has suffered major damage. 

 
Russia has allegedly captured the city of Kreminna. Ukrainians have taken to calling the Russians “Orcs,” which leads me to remind everyone that the orcs lost the War of the Ring. Now would be a great time to light the beacons of Gondor.

 
Trent Telenko - Russians are using Scooby Doo vans for logistics

think that will have any trickle down on the domestic supply chain?

they not only don't have enough tactical military transport - they don't have enough civilian vehicles to supplement the armed forces

the whole country has been hollowed out by the kleptocracy and greedy oligarchs 
If the reports are half way accurate (750ish tanks destroyed) and the Ukranians are actually targeting logistical support as a priority then they are likely all out of tactical trucks. At some point all yhe sycophants around Putin are going to be forced to tell him... "We are bleeding troops, officers and equipment. NATO has become stronger, more focused, with increased funding of member nations and growing with likely additions of Finland amd Sweden. Economically we have inflicted great self harm. Russian prestige has plummeted. And it is clear we can not 'win'. Maybe we should push back from all of this?"

 
Russia has allegedly captured the city of Kreminna. Ukrainians have taken to calling the Russians “Orcs,” which leads me to remind everyone that the orcs lost the War of the Ring. Now would be a great time to light the beacons of Gondor.
But who is Rohan in this scenario? 

 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spare-parts/index.html#scso=_8LFgYvGZF9m7qtsPi7CYgA421:137.06666564941406

Ukraine's Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft after influx of spare parts, senior US defense official says...

The US has committed to sending Ukraine 16 Mi-17 helicopters, but the administration has declined to get involved in a transfer of MiG-29s from another country to Ukraine via the United States...

Ukraine's Air Force has been part of its aerial defense network, which also includes S-300 surface-to-air missiles and portable anti-aircraft missiles. The combination of platforms has prevented Russia from establishing air superiority over Ukraine and controlling the skies.

Despite the constant bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery, as well as the strikes on military bases, Ukraine's Air Force has remained largely intact, though it has suffered some losses.

In early March, about two weeks into the war, the defense official said Ukraine has 56 fighter aircraft, which composed about 80% of its fixed-wing fighters. But the Ukrainians weren't using their aircraft much, flying only five to 10 missions per day, the official said.

Even now, with more operational aircraft, the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying a very limited number of daily sorties, another defense official said.

 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spare-parts/index.html#scso=_8LFgYvGZF9m7qtsPi7CYgA421:137.06666564941406

Ukraine's Air Force has added about 20 more operational aircraft after influx of spare parts, senior US defense official says...

The US has committed to sending Ukraine 16 Mi-17 helicopters, but the administration has declined to get involved in a transfer of MiG-29s from another country to Ukraine via the United States...

Ukraine's Air Force has been part of its aerial defense network, which also includes S-300 surface-to-air missiles and portable anti-aircraft missiles. The combination of platforms has prevented Russia from establishing air superiority over Ukraine and controlling the skies.

Despite the constant bombardment from Russian missiles and artillery, as well as the strikes on military bases, Ukraine's Air Force has remained largely intact, though it has suffered some losses.

In early March, about two weeks into the war, the defense official said Ukraine has 56 fighter aircraft, which composed about 80% of its fixed-wing fighters. But the Ukrainians weren't using their aircraft much, flying only five to 10 missions per day, the official said.

Even now, with more operational aircraft, the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying a very limited number of daily sorties, another defense official said.
Shame those aircraft didn’t come with pilots pre-installed. Still, they’re doing pretty well with the drones, keep sending those, and maybe figure out ways to widen their control range.

 
Russian BMD-4 equipped with French add-on

5 minute video

[blows out]

The BMD-4 is a lightly armored, Cold War era amphibious infantry fighting vehicle. Think “light tank” or “poor man’s Bradley IFV.”

Would be easily destroyed in any engagement with a main battle tank. It’s designed for infantry support & urban combat, but it’s fire control system is antiquated. Limited effectiveness in bad weather or at night.

Add-on one modification from Thales & it becomes a an all-weather BMD-4M. That add-on gives it a 

• Laser rangefinder

Reduces the error and increases the maximum measurable distance of the rangefinder

• Night vision device

Improves visibility by enhancing natural light or active illumination.

• Thermal imager

Allows to see thermal radiation in the infrared range day and night.

That modification was in 2017. Three years after the sanctions/embargo for annexing the Crimea began. BUT Thales (French) had the green light bc 1) the contract was signed before 2014, and 2) incredibly, the bolt on Laser/night vision/Thermal imager was not classified as military equipment.

Watch the video. Taken at a salvage yard where they have been towing civilian vehicles which the orcs have been blowing up. Unarmed families trying to flee the madness.

Super accurate shooting thanks to Thales mod and the loopholes built into sanctions & the embargo.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Why New York’s Billionaires Row is half empty

aka Money Laundering 101

SEE ALSO London, England, UK; Bangkok, Thailand; et al

Pretty good 1/2 hour doc on how oligarchs use ultra high end luxury real estate 
Real estate in general, but especially high-end real estate is absolutely one of the best places to stash wealth.  Not sure how taxation works in the rest of the world on this stuff, but in the US, you can accumulate a tremendous amount of value and delay taxation almost indefinitely.

 
I do remember that stuff being a sticking point for a lot of people, and I’m certainly not about to gloss over that history, but that can be dealt with later, frankly, because the bigger villain in the room is Russia and it’s really not close.


didn't watch eh

ETA: sorry, snark is unhelpful

I like that Mark (whose YouTube channel is fantastic for anyone who likes 20th/21st century military history) is pretty even handed and matter of fact in addressing the symbology. Just gives the proper context rather than the typical pearl clutching and faux outrage.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
didn't watch eh

ETA: sorry, snark is unhelpful

I like that Mark (whose YouTube channel is fantastic for anyone who likes 20th/21st century military history) is pretty even handed and matter of fact in addressing the symbology. Just gives the proper context rather than the typical pearl clutching and faux outrage.
I watched, still think they are Nazi lovers but hey, war makes strange bedfellows. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Go get em boys!

 
I watched, still think they are Nazi lovers but hey, war makes strange bedfellows. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Go get em boys!


There is worldwide (seemingly) support for Ukraine. It's so inspirational to see, and Zelensky + several others have embodied leadership. Really cannot recall another conflict with this kind of dynamic.

Democracy vs Communist is an old trope but in most cases from the last 75+ years, it's the proxy country, Super Power I + adjacents, Super Power II + the only other 2-4 communist nations, and 190 or so countries not caring too much.

Ukraine is crushing the narrative game.

 
Ukraine is crushing the narrative game.
Very true and social media is snapping itself in half to promote as much pro-Ukrainian narrative as much as possible. The problem is, we are entering the war of attrition phase and I'm not sure how much longer this goes on. At some point you run out of bodies regardless of how much "stuff" is sent their way. Russia is doing it's best to prove me wrong but other than Putin being deposed from within, he isn't giving up on this war any time soon.

 
Very true and social media is snapping itself in half to promote as much pro-Ukrainian narrative as much as possible. The problem is, we are entering the war of attrition phase and I'm not sure how much longer this goes on. At some point you run out of bodies regardless of how much "stuff" is sent their way. Russia is doing it's best to prove me wrong but other than Putin being deposed from within, he isn't giving up on this war any time soon.
I believe it will be an attrition of military machinery as much (or much more, hopefully) as body count.  Russia's challenge will be the difficulty in repairing and replacing their weapons of war, vs. Ukraine, who continues to be restocked by the west.  This continues to be a tragedy for Ukraine's people, cities, and economy.  But it's good see that Russia is, to some degree, stalling again.

 
I believe it will be an attrition of military machinery as much (or much more, hopefully) as body count.  Russia's challenge will be the difficulty in repairing and replacing their weapons of war, vs. Ukraine, who continues to be restocked by the west.  


@neil_daws: @jawja100 >> "A high-ranking US defense official's opinion is, the Ukrainian forces now have more tanks at the frontlines than the Russians" @TrentTelenko

 
I watched, still think they are Nazi lovers but hey, war makes strange bedfellows. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Go get em boys!
:goodposting:

If the US was attacked on US soil, I'm pretty confident we wouldn't quibble about heavily armed neo nazi militias here in the US aiding in battle. This sadly isn't a problem unique to Ukraine.

 
@timkmak: The sinking of the Moskva has already inspired a song. 

Here in Odesa local musicians sent me this video they recorded tonight, to the tune of ‘When the Saints Go Marching In’

Here’s “When the Ships Gone Bottomin’” by the proprietor of the Jazz Club Perron No 7 and his friends https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1515028375798173701/video/1
I did see that Russia finally confirmed what everyone knew, they did suffer casualties in the sinking. 

 
kinda sad actually. i don't mention all the things that are bothering me, but even with our massive defense budget we are behind in many many key technologies. if this thing blows up to ww3, i am not nearly as confident as most. 

this was really good to see though...

US laser technology scores historic first (for the US anyway). knocks down drone immitating a missile.

given some chinese technology the importance of this "directed energy" weapon development is huge. it needs to get way better but we are on the right track, a few years away from being able to deal with hypersonic missiles. currently our navy is in serious peril, unable to defend against them. china is stockpiling them with little fear of our massive carriers.

 
@KyivIndependent: ⚡️Oil storage depot in Russia’s city of Bryansk catches fire. 

A large fire was reported early on April 25 at an oil storage facility in Bryansk, Russian news agencies reported, citing the emergency services ministry. There are no further details at the moment.

 
@KyivIndependent: ⚡️U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Zelensky in Kyiv on April 24, according to adviser Oleksiy Arestovych. 

The meeting, which the U.S. hasn’t yet confirmed, is the highest-level visit by U.S. officials since Russia's war began.

 
@KyivIndependent: ⚡️Oil storage depot in Russia’s city of Bryansk catches fire. 

A large fire was reported early on April 25 at an oil storage facility in Bryansk, Russian news agencies reported, citing the emergency services ministry. There are no further details at the moment.
There’s talk(at least minor, and in the politics thread) that Russia is possibly attempting a false flag with this, and it’s certainly plausible, but I doubt they’ll receive much sympathy from anyone not already on their side.

 
That’s an interesting read. I looked up where Bryansk is, and I didn’t know if Ukraine could actually get that far into Russian territory, and it looks like it is possible, but at the edge of their range. For me, it kinda rules out Ukrainian firepower, but not entirely. It could be a false flag, but it shows once again that Russia’s leaders are either stupid or think  their subjects are, because of how relatively remote they are from Ukraine, making that scenario plausible, but at the cost of whatever credulity Russia thought they had. It could be an accident, which, when given how shambolic the Russian military is, makes a lot of sense that their own incompetence has bitten them again.

Personally, I’m inclined to think it’s either Option 2 or 3, but I would love it if the Ukrainians are returning the favor to Russia for the damage they caused.

 

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