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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

Russia seems to be folding against the offensive. Some Ukrainian units apparently have reached the Russian border with "no Russian units to be seen". Some political cracks are forming with criticism of the handling of the war, Putin celebrating "City Day" (a holiday for the founding of Moscow) and even that Russia can not win and negotiations must happen.
 
At some point the ukr lines will get over extended and they will have too many pows. This is amazing though.

Russia is feeling the full weight of this nonsense. They are so behind tech wise they couldn't produce a Nokia flip phone if they had to.

Now Germany is nearly 90% full on gas reserves and can make the winter. This will be a full unraveling outside and inside here.
 
It is said that the current two pronged counter offensive by the Ukrainians is currently costing the Russians a battalion a day in equipment and men. They have about 100 under strength battalions in the region. The Ukrainians have captured enough equipment in the offensive to outfit a new brigade... or put in another way, they have gained more equipment than they have lost in these offensives.

A major problem for the Ukrainians right now is handling the Russian surrenders. They have no where to put them.

Russia is running out of ways to reinforce short of a total national mobilization.
I had no idea so I looked it up, about a thousand soldiers in a battalion.
 
At some point the ukr lines will get over extended and they will have too many pows. This is amazing though.

Russia is feeling the full weight of this nonsense. They are so behind tech wise they couldn't produce a Nokia flip phone if they had to.

Now Germany is nearly 90% full on gas reserves and can make the winter. This will be a full unraveling outside and inside here.
What about Italy and France natgas reserves?
 
At some point the ukr lines will get over extended and they will have too many pows. This is amazing though.

Russia is feeling the full weight of this nonsense. They are so behind tech wise they couldn't produce a Nokia flip phone if they had to.

Now Germany is nearly 90% full on gas reserves and can make the winter. This will be a full unraveling outside and inside here.
What about Italy and France natgas reserves?
Not nearly as critical as Germany, but they seem on the way to being set for winter as well.
 
At some point the ukr lines will get over extended and they will have too many pows. This is amazing though.

Russia is feeling the full weight of this nonsense. They are so behind tech wise they couldn't produce a Nokia flip phone if they had to.

Now Germany is nearly 90% full on gas reserves and can make the winter. This will be a full unraveling outside and inside here.
They have basically zero ability to produce the electronics needed for high tech weapons. It is amazing to me to find out that they have no industry at home.
 
I just saw a serious of videos where Ukranian troops are finding equipment... one was literally about ten tanks in a small area that seemingly are undamaged just left. Another self propelled howitzer that looks fine.

I read a retired US General cite three concerns: 1) Tempo 2) Fatigue and 3) "Black Swans" being the Ukrainian economy, the Russian POWs and the Nuclear power plants. Also seeing people worry about how Russia/Putin will react to being routed in so much of what they had gained. One can only hope that this leads to regime change.
 
It is said that the current two pronged counter offensive by the Ukrainians is currently costing the Russians a battalion a day in equipment and men. They have about 100 under strength battalions in the region. The Ukrainians have captured enough equipment in the offensive to outfit a new brigade... or put in another way, they have gained more equipment than they have lost in these offensives.

A major problem for the Ukrainians right now is handling the Russian surrenders. They have no where to put them.

Russia is running out of ways to reinforce short of a total national mobilization.
I had no idea so I looked it up, about a thousand soldiers in a battalion.
A brigade is about 3 or 4 battalions. (3-4,000 tropps) A tank battalion has about 50ish tanks.

The Russian formations are being decimated by losses. I believe this also suppose to be the top cream of their troops too for the area the counter offensive in the north is running through and not concripts, mercenaries or Chechen militia etc.
 
A Ukrainian interviewed said the Russians were "running like mice" and accused them of even shooting their own wounded so they could get away.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1663206354

Amazing story about what happens to pro-Russian Ukrainians when the Russians take off.
Being a history nerd, I have tried to put myself into the shoes of... for example... a citizen in occupied Europe during WWII. I mean, it is easy to say that you would fight against the evils of Nazism and be part of that resistance but the reality is that most people want to keep their heads down and try to just live their lives. Just like in France or Belgium or whatever other country, many had no love for the Nazi's but they were forced to make choices and sometimes that meant what would be seen as collaboration. I think many are simply trying to live their lives. I feel for those people as I see them as victims of circumstances. Again, for me, when I put myself in those shoes... what choices would I make.... back when I was single, it would be an easier choice to figure out a way to resist. As a father... I think I would be much more likely to do what I thought I needed to do to keep them safe and that could very well end up looking like collaborating.... though that would be challenged as I started to understand how evil the Nazi's really were. It is a very interesting perspective once you really go through trying to put yourself in those peoples shoes.
 
I don’t foresee a way for Russia to reengage (other than a big, scary, vindictive move). They’ve lost troops, equipment, and morale. There’s no possible rallying cause. It will be interesting to see where Ukraine takes the fight now.
 

Germany takes control of stakes in Rosneft oil refineries

The German government has taken temporary control of two subsidiaries of the Russian energy giant Rosneft.

The move by the government puts it in charge of Rosneft's stakes in three refineries in the country.

This includes a key facility in the northeast of the country which supplies around 90% of Berlin's fuel, and in which Rosneft held a majority stake.

Germany's economy ministry said the move was necessary to counteract an impending threat to energy security.
In a similar move in April, Germany took control of subsidiaries of Russian gas giant Gazprom.

On Friday, the German government handed control of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Brandenburg to the national energy regulator, along with stakes in two other refineries in the south of the country.

The economy ministry said the move was necessary because critical service providers and customers were no longer willing to work with Rosneft, putting the continued operation of the refineries under threat.

Russia sanctions: How can the world cope without its oil and gas?
Ukraine war: G7 agrees to impose price cap on Russian oil
The Schwedt refinery is Germany's fourth-largest and is the main supplier of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel for Berlin and the surrounding area. Rosneft has a 54% stake in the facility.

The refinery has received all its crude from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline since it was built in the 1960s. Parts of western Poland are also supplied by Schwedt.
It's less than a year since Rosneft agreed to buy out Shell's holding in PCK, a move that would have given it more than 90% ownership of the vital Schwedt refinery.

That deal was scuppered by the Ukraine war. Now the German government has control - a symbol of the vast changes imposed on Europe's energy sector by the conflict.

In happier times, the refinery would take in vast quantities of crude brought from central Russia through the Druzbha pipeline, and pump out refined products for Berlin and Brandenburg.

But with Germany having pledged to boycott Russian oil, even though the pipeline itself is not covered by the EU's forthcoming embargo, new sources of supply will have to be found.

With Rosneft in charge that was seen as an impossible task. There were concerns in Berlin that the Russian firm would simply suspend operations at the plant, rather than use non-Russian oil.

That headache has now been removed - although it's not yet clear where alternative supplies will come from.

Rosneft Deutschland, which accounts for about 12% of German oil processing capacity, will fall under the trusteeship of the Federal Network Agency regulator, which said the original owner no longer had authority to issue instructions. The regulator was also handed control of Rosneft subsidiary RN Refining and Marketing.

"With the trusteeship, the threat to the security of energy supply is countered and an essential foundation stone is set for the preservation and future of the Schwedt site," Germany's economy ministry said.

It claimed critical suppliers such as insurance companies, IT providers and banks were no longer willing to work with Rosneft, either with the subsidiaries themselves or through the refineries.

The Federal Network Agency has also taken control of Rosneft Deutschland's shares in the MiRo refinery in Karlsruhe and Bayernoil refinery in Vohburg. Rosneft owns 28% and 24% stakes respectively.

Germany needs to stop Russian oil imports by the end of the year under European sanctions imposed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The ministry said Friday's move included a package to ensure the Schwedt refinery could receive oil from alternative routes.

It is unclear who could step in to replace Rosneft as operator of the refinery. Shell, which owns a 37.5% stake in Schwedt, has wanted to withdraw for some time.

Germany said this week it would step up lending to energy firms at risk of being crushed by soaring gas prices after Russia cut supplies to Europe in retaliation for Western sanctions.

German utility Uniper said on Wednesday that the government might take a controlling stake, saying an earlier state rescue package worth €19bn euros was no longer enough.

The government has also put SEFE, formerly known as Gazprom Germania, under trusteeship after Russian energy giant Gazprom ditched it in April.
 
Again, for me, when I put myself in those shoes... what choices would I make.... back when I was single, it would be an easier choice to figure out a way to resist. As a father... I think I would be much more likely to do what I thought I needed to do to keep them safe and that could very well end up looking like collaborating....
Agreed. It helps you understand how the partisans in, say, the Balkans had the bloodletting they did after the war was over.

I might not be a Communist, but still be quite happy to root out Nazis in 1946 after the atrocities of the war. And then I'm labeled a Communist for the rest of my life.

And maybe the Communists had done terrible things before the war, so you were happy to see the Nazis doing something about it even though you weren't a Nazi. Then you're labeled a Nazi for the rest of your life.

Hard times to live through.
 
Would China help them out in any way?
China has distanced themselves from this while trying to use it to their advantage.

I think the Chinese will not be inclined to sell them equipment. The Russian military export business will plummet from this. Beyond the sanctions making it hard for them to build anything- only pariah countries blocked from access to western equipment will be interested in buying what is clearly shown to be inferior.

Buyers will look to western options, Chinese options and more countries are looking to build and export equipment such as Korea and India. They will all take a big slice of the Russian pie, which was the second largest pie in the military equipment export business and I don't think the Chinese want to risk their equipment getting blown up as well.
 
Also.... in a HUGE win for Western intelligence efforts.... the Ukrainians have recovered the Russians top electronic warfare pods form a downed fighter. Apparently, the fighter was downed in the early stages of the war and has been in Russian controlled territory until recently from this counter offensive. The apparently didn't care enough or know enough to recover it. The Ukrainians do and will be handing over a slightly dented treasure trove of an intelligence win to western nations.
 
Something going on?

Several disputed regions of Ukraine under Russian control and influence were supposed to announce sudden and immediate "referendums", which were alleged to show the "voters" deciding to split from Ukraine and join Russia.

Putin was supposed to go on Russian TV tonight to announce a full mobilization of the Russian army to secure these new states for Russia. A major escalation of Russian involvement.

At the last minute this TV address was canceled, potentially for Putin's "health reasons", and is now supposed to take place in the morning when China wakes up.
 
Something going on?

Several disputed regions of Ukraine under Russian control and influence were supposed to announce sudden and immediate "referendums", which were alleged to show the "voters" deciding to split from Ukraine and join Russia.

Putin was supposed to go on Russian TV tonight to announce a full mobilization of the Russian army to secure these new states for Russia. A major escalation of Russian involvement.

At the last minute this TV address was canceled, potentially for Putin's "health reasons", and is now supposed to take place in the morning when China wakes up.
Interesting. I was wondering why "putinisdead" was trending on Twitter.
 
Something going on?

Several disputed regions of Ukraine under Russian control and influence were supposed to announce sudden and immediate "referendums", which were alleged to show the "voters" deciding to split from Ukraine and join Russia.

Putin was supposed to go on Russian TV tonight to announce a full mobilization of the Russian army to secure these new states for Russia. A major escalation of Russian involvement.

At the last minute this TV address was canceled, potentially for Putin's "health reasons", and is now supposed to take place in the morning when China wakes up.
By having these regions becoming part of Russia it allows Putin to enact self defense clauses and initiate general mobilization laws. The scary part is that the mobilization and self defense clauses grants Putin authority to use nuclear and biological weapons in order to defend the homeland.
 
Can you imagine if NATO went to war with Russia? Take the threat and most likely eventual use of WMD's out of the it for a little. Ukraine stopped the Russians cold using almost all old Soviet era equipment. They have gained an influx of weaponry since but as much as they get some of the good stuff like Javelin's, Stingers, Starstreaks etc and later HIMARS much of it has been second hand older and on the verge of being obsolete like the various Soviet era stuff the eastern European NATO members were trying to get rid of anyways like Strela 3's and or western NATO giving their functioning M113's.

Imagine going against all of the numerical and quality differences that NATO would have in combat compared to the Ukrainians.
 
Russia calling up 300K reservists which is an admission that they are losing the war and that their military is in shambles. Keep in mind, that this is not just the Russian conventional forces that have failed but Moscow's use of mercenaries (Wagner Group), militias (Chechen and pro-Russian groups in Eastern Ukraine) and conscripts. They just passed a law saying that if you are captured and return to Russia you will end up with a 10 year prison sentence. They are losing more equipment by the day while Ukraine actually has MORE equipment than when the war began via acquisition of Western help and the repurposing of the Russian equipment left in retreat. Protests and Russian men fleeing the country have been seen the last few days. Reportedly Putin has left for a "secret palace in the woods" which may be an indication that he believes he could potentially end up being overthrown and is trying to defend against that.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continue to outwit the Russians. They sent out mass text messages telling Russians that they can surrender and that if there was prisoner exchanges and they did not want to go back to Russia, they won't force them. Asking them to send intelligence etc. With Russian morale as it is, I have to believe that this will be effective.
 

I know I am quoting myself, but this video is telling IMO. These people on this show, particularly the two in this clip, are insane pro-Putin nuke Ukraine types. Other clips from this show are mind-blowing to watch. And these two are actually saying some things against Putin/his regime.
 
I just remain concerned about what a cornered Putin may do.

This will continue to be the #1 issue for the entire world until he is either dead or out of power. He holds a strong grip on Russia. Very, very strong. But the longer this goes the more likely a coup becomes. It's basically becoming their Vietnam, with a more modern social media enhanced timeline
 
I just remain concerned about what a cornered Putin may do.
Everyone is. It is hard to see the off ramp on all of this. Ukraine has the upper hand right now in the military fight. Russia is folding fast and rushing 300K conscripts into the fight is not going to turn the tide. Annexing the currently held Ukrainian territory could be then turn of "we are defending Russian land" which then, by Russian law, unleashes a ton of possibilities, including the use of WMD's. The only good thing is that there are indications that even the nominal allies Russia has right now in China and India that have basically held non-committal positions of not condemning Russia actions and carrying on as if Russia has not done anything wrong would not support the annexation. Ukraine will not stop with anything short of returning Ukrainian land back, including Crimea. That would be an utter and complete defeat for Russia that I don't think Putin is willing to accept. Is Putin willing to burn down the whole world because of his ego? I think the biggest thing that the US needs to do is communicate to Russia that the use of nuclear weapons would mean the end of Putin and his family, one way or another. Make it clear that if he chooses that, not only will he die but his kids (acknowledged and suspected by mistresses) would be gone too. Grisly and nasty to say but if he uses nukes.... that is it... the escalation will continue up unless someone rational and sane in the Russian military with enough juice says screw it and puts a round in his head and stands them down....because if not then everyone dies. Literally. Everyone.
 
The interesting thing right now is the multiple reports of various acts where a Russian male goes into a recruiting station and shoots the person in charge.... an attempted murder charge is 6 years in prison while not fighting in Ukraine is 10 years. Or a guy going to the station and lighting it on fire. Again, the sentence is expected to be much lighter than by refusing to fight in the Ukraine. The Georgian border is stacked with Russian men trying to get out of the country.

The military has to see how ridiculous this is. There has to be someone willing to save Russia from Putin.
 
The other thing to keep Putin in check is if the leaders of China and India (primarily) make it very clear that if he uses WMD's that they will not only not support it but oppose him. If he sees that escalating to that point means Russia truly is absolutely cut off from the world.... then maybe he sees it as not a way to win.

All he cares about is winning. Any action that leads to him not winning is one he will not take.
 
So Putin is "officially" announcing the annexation of those regions today in Moscow. These areas make up 18% of Ukraine. Insane. So now he will use this as justification of "self-defense" when he ups his aggression and potential use of nukes. Sitting idly by and just providing $$ is not going to solve this unfortunately, unless Putin and his followers are ousted from within. To them though, this is a religious war -- look at what the head of the Russian Orthodox Church has been saying.
 
So Putin is "officially" announcing the annexation of those regions today in Moscow. These areas make up 18% of Ukraine. Insane. So now he will use this as justification of "self-defense" when he ups his aggression and potential use of nukes. Sitting idly by and just providing $$ is not going to solve this unfortunately, unless Putin and his followers are ousted from within. To them though, this is a religious war -- look at what the head of the Russian Orthodox Church has been saying.

Biden is in a tough spot. I think he has handled this pretty good thus far, but it's becoming clear that Russia is throwing logic out the window. How do you deal with that?

I have nothing positive to say about the actions of the Russian Orthodox Church. Their actions strongly align with the churches in Germany leading up to WW2.
 
So Putin is "officially" announcing the annexation of those regions today in Moscow. These areas make up 18% of Ukraine. Insane. So now he will use this as justification of "self-defense" when he ups his aggression and potential use of nukes. Sitting idly by and just providing $$ is not going to solve this unfortunately, unless Putin and his followers are ousted from within. To them though, this is a religious war -- look at what the head of the Russian Orthodox Church has been saying.

Biden is in a tough spot. I think he has handled this pretty good thus far, but it's becoming clear that Russia is throwing logic out the window. How do you deal with that?

I have nothing positive to say about the actions of the Russian Orthodox Church. Their actions strongly align with the churches in Germany leading up to WW2.
The church has no say on who gets forgiven, and I’m sure if they checked in with their Boss, He’d say as much to them.
 
So Putin is "officially" announcing the annexation of those regions today in Moscow. These areas make up 18% of Ukraine. Insane. So now he will use this as justification of "self-defense" when he ups his aggression and potential use of nukes. Sitting idly by and just providing $$ is not going to solve this unfortunately, unless Putin and his followers are ousted from within. To them though, this is a religious war -- look at what the head of the Russian Orthodox Church has been saying.

Biden is in a tough spot. I think he has handled this pretty good thus far, but it's becoming clear that Russia is throwing logic out the window. How do you deal with that?

I have nothing positive to say about the actions of the Russian Orthodox Church. Their actions strongly align with the churches in Germany leading up to WW2.
The church has no say on who gets forgiven, and I’m sure if they checked in with their Boss, He’d say as much to them.
“If someone, driven by a sense of duty, the need to fulfill an oath, remains true to his calling and dies in the line of military duty, then he undoubtedly commits an act that is tantamount to a sacrifice,” Kirill said in the sermon. “He sacrifices himself for others,” Kirill said. “And therefore we believe that this sacrifice washes away all the sins that a person has committed.”
 
Can you imagine if NATO went to war with Russia? Take the threat and most likely eventual use of WMD's out of the it for a little. Ukraine stopped the Russians cold using almost all old Soviet era equipment. They have gained an influx of weaponry since but as much as they get some of the good stuff like Javelin's, Stingers, Starstreaks etc and later HIMARS much of it has been second hand older and on the verge of being obsolete like the various Soviet era stuff the eastern European NATO members were trying to get rid of anyways like Strela 3's and or western NATO giving their functioning M113's.

Imagine going against all of the numerical and quality differences that NATO would have in combat compared to the Ukrainians.
I believe the Ukrainians took to US training in 2014ish and I think that has played a major part in them dismantling the Russians as well but doesn't get as much play as the weapons do. Certainly the technology plays a part but so do tactics and probably more than anything the heart to defend your homeland to the last.

See the encirclement of Lyman as an example of a textbook military engagement. It's going to be ugly for the Russians that are in the middle of that and will probably start to tighten over the next few days. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-troops-encircling-russian-forces-putin-counteroffensive-1747189

To your point, if NATO became involved I don't think it takes more than a week before Putin pushes the button. He would have no choice to try and stave off complete annihilation.
 

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