*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

 

[Kal El]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

I’ll be genuinely shocked if a country buys Russian hardware for the next 20 years, that stuff is just so bad.

 

[Chadstroma]

Shift in Balance of Arms in Ukraine Underscored by Fresh Data

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

I’ll be genuinely shocked if a country buys Russian hardware for the next 20 years, that stuff is just so bad.

There will be some for two reasons: 1) They have no issues selling to pretty much anyone, so pariah countries will go to them. 2) Not everything is total crap. There is a ton of information that we at the civilian level just do not know but my sense is that some things like the S-series of surface to air systems have performed close to expectations. The Orlan 10 seems to get good marks for being a good, cheap UAV.

But for a country looking to invest in MBT or fighter jets etc that is not an aligned country- I can't see them looking at Russian equipment and thinking "yea, that is what we want." Western countries will see a boost, South Korea is becoming an emerging military exporter, and of course China will gain traction but I wonder how much of the failure of Russian equipment will be reflected on to Chinese pretty much all their military tech is either copied/stolen from Russia or us.

The amount of exports they do after this will nose dive without any doubt. But then again, they will be in such a huge hole that they will take decades to rebuild their own military before having any capacity to export even if there are customers for it.

 

[The Z Machine]

they will be in such a huge hole that they will take decades to rebuild their own military before having any capacity to export even if there are customers for it.

Or they could choose to not put all that money back into their military (much of which is just skimmed anyway due to corruption) and instead invest in their citizenry and infrastructure. Try joining the western world instead of fighting it.

But we know that won't happen.

 

[Chadstroma]

they will be in such a huge hole that they will take decades to rebuild their own military before having any capacity to export even if there are customers for it.

Or they could choose to not put all that money back into their military (much of which is just skimmed anyway due to corruption) and instead invest in their citizenry and infrastructure. Try joining the western world instead of fighting it.

But we know that won't happen.

I love your optimism.

 

[Da Guru]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

 

[Kal El]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

 

[Da Guru]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

They were in trouble way before the invasion?

 

[Chadstroma]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

Because it sounds a lot better than "I want to rebuild the Russian Empire lost when the Soviet Union died so I can be one of the great Russian leaders of history."

 

[Kal El]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

They were in trouble way before the invasion?

I mean, he’s been beating the drum of “NATO will invade any day now” for a very long time, despite absolutely nobody wanting to do anything of the sort. He, for whatever reason, is using that as a justification for everything, and Russia doesn’t even have anything that’s worth invading for, much less dealing with the 8 months of awful weather on top of that for

 

[The Z Machine]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

They were in trouble way before the invasion?

Demographic decline is staring them in the face. Losing tens of thousands of reproductive aged men isn't going to help.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia is 'accepting risks' and dropping its guard against other threats to hold its ground in Ukraine, British military says

The war has become a nearly all-consuming effort for Russia's military. Ben Wallace, the British minister of defense, said in February that 97% of the Russian army was estimated to be in Ukraine and was experiencing "First World War levels of attrition."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US expected to announce new military aid package for Ukraine that will include cluster munitions

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told CNN Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia's Wagner paramilitary group, is in the Russian city of St. Petersburg — not Belarus as originally agreed.

www.cnn.com

The United States is expected to announce a new military aid package for Ukraine on Friday that will include cluster munitions for the first time, defense officials told CNN.

CNN first reported last week that US President Joe Biden's administration was strongly considering approving the transfer of the controversial weapons to Ukraine, as the Ukrainians have struggled to make major gains in its weeks-old counteroffensive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed also concerns about ammunition shortages.

Changing battlefield conditions inside Ukraine over the last two weeks prompted US officials to give the cluster munitions renewed and serious consideration, officials told CNN.

More about the weapons: Cluster munitions are banned by more than 100 countries because they scatter “bomblets” across large areas that can fail to explode on impact and can pose a long-term risk to anyone who encounters them, similar to landmines. The US and Ukraine are not signatories to that ban, however.

The US has a stockpile of cluster munitions known as DPICMs, or dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, that it no longer uses after phasing them out in 2016.

Both the Ukrainians and the Russians have used cluster bombs since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, and more recently, Ukrainian forces have begun using Turkish-provided cluster munitions on the battlefield.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence

Bulgaria is negotiating the sale of two Russian-made reactors to Kyiv, with the U.S. potentially contributing to the cost.

www.wsj.com

Bulgaria is nearing an agreement to sell two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical equipment to Ukraine’s state-owned atomic energy company as Europe moves to roll back Moscow’s hold on the continent’s power supplies.
Under the deal, which is still being negotiated, Sofia’s state power company NEK would sell Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom equipment from the unfinished Belene Nuclear Power Plant for at least 600 million euros, or around $650 million, officials and others familiar with the situation said.

If it goes through, the transaction would mark the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine that Russian-made nuclear-power equipment is used to help boost energy output for Kyiv.
The fact that Bulgaria, a former Soviet satellite state long friendly with Moscow, is considering the deal is a sign of how much Russian clout has eroded in the European Union’s eastern states.
With Ukraine struggling to foot the bill, one option discussed between Bulgarian and American officials would see the U.S. contributing through its aid for Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin’s media machine turns on ‘traitor’ Prigozhin

Russia’s state media attacks the Wagner warlord — and reveals the investigation into his failed mutiny hasn’t been dropped.

www.politico.eu

From national hero to drug-addled, bewigged zero: the Kremlin’s propaganda machine has turned against Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a sensational report on state-run Rossiya-1’s “60 Minutes” program on Wednesday evening, the Kremlin’s propaganda attack dogs played footage of what they claimed was a raid of Prigozhin’s mansion and offices, showing cash, guns, drugs, a helicopter, multiple (Russian) passports — and a closet full of terrible wigs.

“The investigation is continuing,” said pundit Eduard Petrov at the top of the program, referring to the probe into the mutiny led by Prigozhin last month, during which the leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries marched his men to within 200 kilometers of Moscow in a bid to oust the country’s military leadership. “In reality, no one planned to close this case,” he added.

Prigozhin mansion: Russian TV shows footage to discredit Wagner leader after failed mutiny

Russian state TV on Wednesday night launched a fierce attack on Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of an aborted armed mercenary mutiny last month, and said an investigation was still being pursued.

www.reuters.com

In the programme "60 Minutes", broadcast on Wednesday on Rossiya-1 television, footage was shown that had purportedly been shot during law enforcement raids on Prigozhin's St Petersburg office and one of his "palaces".
The host, lawmaker Yevgeny Popov, called Prigozhin a "traitor" and the footage was presented by an invited guest - journalist Eduard Petrov - as proof of Prigozhin's criminal past and his hypocrisy in alleging corruption in the armed forces.
The footage showed boxes full of high-denomination roubles in his office and bundles of dollars in a luxurious residence along with a helicopter alleged to belong to him, an arms cache and a collection of wigs.
A fully equipped medical treatment room, gold bars and a collection of souvenir sledgehammers, the tool Prigozhin called a symbol of vengeance to be used against traitors, were also shown.

Mercenary boss returned to Russia to collect money and guns

Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin was in Russia on Thursday, according to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, raising further questions about the murky agreement under which Prigozhin avoided insurgency charges for a failed rebellion that posed a brazen challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority.

But on Thursday, 12 days after Prigozhin abruptly turned around columns of fighters that he had sent rolling toward Moscow, Lukashenko said the mercenary boss had been back in his home city of St. Petersburg and may have flown to Moscow on Thursday morning. Lukashenko said a final deal on the move by Prigozhin and his fighters to Belarus was still not settled.

Prigozhin’s continued presence in Russia was confirmed by a St. Petersburg businessman, who said the Wagner boss had returned home to reclaim money and weapons seized by the Russian security services.

“It’s not the end of Prigozhin,” the businessman said, speaking Wednesday on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “They returned all his money to him. More than this, today they even gave back to him his honorary pistol, the Glock, and another weapon. He came to take it himself.”

Officials in Moscow appear to be wrestling with the difficult question of how Wagner can be replaced, both in Ukraine and in its operations in Africa, where it has extended Russia’s reach through its security contracts with several governments.
Even top Russian officials were in the dark about the deal, what it means for Russia, for Putin’s authority, Prigozhin’s fate, and Wagner’s future.

“We still don’t know exactly what happened,” one member of top Russian diplomatic circles said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. This person said the crisis appeared to have passed and Moscow was “calm,” adding: “If we see this situation as a crisis, at least the most immediate consequences have been minimized. We see there are no clear consequences noticeable so far.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in five sectors of the front on July 5 and made gains in some areas. Geolocated footage posted on July 5 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced southwest of Berkhivka (6km northwest of

www.understandingwar.org

The Kremlin continues to show concern over the risk of a potential armed rebellion in Russia after Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24. A pro-Kremlin online outlet reported that the Moscow Oblast police will train in urban combat tactics, light machine gun shooting, grenade throwing, and tactical medicine to improve skills in the aftermath of Wagner’s armed rebellion.[28] Such training indicates that the Kremlin is attempting to improve the ability of security forces in Moscow to defend the regime against potential future threats. Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is unlikely to adequately prepare the Moscow Oblast police for urban combat given that some police elements are already expressing disinterest with the new training plans among many other problems with this plan. The outlet stated that Moscow Oblast’s female police officers are also trying to avoid the training.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russia continues to procure Iranian-made Shahed drones and is setting conditions to manufacture these drones in Russia with Iran’s assistance. Ukrainian Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff General Oleksii Hromov stated that Russia received up to 1,800 drones from Iran - of which 1,600 are of the Shahed-type and 200 of unspecified types.[26] Hromov added that Iran consistently replenishes Russian stocks of Iranian drones, and that Russia reached an agreement with Iran to produce drones in the Republic of Tatarstan. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian and Iranian officials are planning to set up the production of Iranian Shahed drones on the territory of Yelabuga in the Republic of Tatarstan given that this settlement is the provisional headquarters of the Yelabuga Free Economic Zone.[27] Russia previously used Yelabuga Free Economic Zone exclusively for civilian industrial and economic projects before turning the project into a key focus of Russia’s military industry. The Resistance Center reported that Iran will provide Russia with necessary components that will then be assembled in Russia. The Resistance Center, citing open-source intelligence, reported that Russian leadership intends to train Yelabuga specialists in Iran to assemble Shaheds and transfer the production of some Shahed components to the territory of the Yelabuga Free Economic Zone. The Resistance Center added that Russia wants to establish an automated production line.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Good read here on the situation with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant: https://thebulletin.org/2023/07/the...hia-nuclear-power-plant-intentional-sabotage/

A couple of mines on the roof of a reactor would not be enough. Causing a big release would require some serious demolition with explosives. But that’s what was needed to destroy Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam—which it appears was done with explosives from within, while Russian forces controlled the site—so a similar operation at Zaporizhzhia can’t be ruled out.

By contrast, looking only at inadvertent damage, there are reasons to be optimistic. The Zaporizhzhia reactors are built with thick concrete containment structures, have been cooling for months, and have extra safety features installed after the Fukushima accident in Japan. It is very unlikely that a few stray shells from fighting in the area would cause any serious radioactive release.

Such fighting might damage the cooling systems that keep the hot radioactive fuel in the reactor cores and spent fuel pools covered with water, preventing the fuel from melting. With the reactors as cool as they now are, however, it could take quite a while—a matter of days or weeks—before the water boiled off and the fuel began to melt (unless someone sabotaged the plant, draining the water).

If people who wanted to prevent an accident gained access to the site, they might well be able to replenish the cooling water in the time available—if fighting in the area did not stop them. Even if the fuel did melt, the steel pressure vessels of the reactors and the concrete containment buildings around the reactors and the spent fuel pools might well prevent a large release of radioactivity.

 

[HellToupee]

I understand the lack of air support is a hindrance but I wonder who is calling the shots for NATO. I just assumed it would come from our input in nato

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1676794731215421441?s=61&t=oX9G006TUZ9alBtC5c4uMQ

Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces stated today that they currently believe that the 1st Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive has Failed due to Ukrainian Forces attempting to use NATO Military Tactics which do not work against Fortified and Heavily-Mined Russian Defenses, however he further stated that Ukraine is now beginning to change Tactics and that he expects for there to be Limited-Successes along the Frontline but No Major Breakthroughs.

 

[Chadstroma]

Good read here on the situation with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant: https://thebulletin.org/2023/07/the...hia-nuclear-power-plant-intentional-sabotage/

A couple of mines on the roof of a reactor would not be enough. Causing a big release would require some serious demolition with explosives. But that’s what was needed to destroy Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam—which it appears was done with explosives from within, while Russian forces controlled the site—so a similar operation at Zaporizhzhia can’t be ruled out.

By contrast, looking only at inadvertent damage, there are reasons to be optimistic. The Zaporizhzhia reactors are built with thick concrete containment structures, have been cooling for months, and have extra safety features installed after the Fukushima accident in Japan. It is very unlikely that a few stray shells from fighting in the area would cause any serious radioactive release.

Such fighting might damage the cooling systems that keep the hot radioactive fuel in the reactor cores and spent fuel pools covered with water, preventing the fuel from melting. With the reactors as cool as they now are, however, it could take quite a while—a matter of days or weeks—before the water boiled off and the fuel began to melt (unless someone sabotaged the plant, draining the water).

If people who wanted to prevent an accident gained access to the site, they might well be able to replenish the cooling water in the time available—if fighting in the area did not stop them. Even if the fuel did melt, the steel pressure vessels of the reactors and the concrete containment buildings around the reactors and the spent fuel pools might well prevent a large release of radioactivity.

Essentially there needs to be two things that happen that would ensure Russia doesn't do anything stupid. Again.

1. NATO makes it clear this is a line not to be crossed. As noted above, Russia has basically taken all land forces and shifted them to Ukraine. The long frontier with NATO is basically undefended. Not that it would matter as we clearly see that NATO forces are so far superior to Russian that a conventional war, even before Russia has seen it's military severely degraded, would be a quick and lopsided affair.

2. China needs to make it clear that they will shun Russia if they cross this line. I don't think a large nuclear meltdown is in China's interest and they further want to be seen as having more clout on the international stage. To be seen as a power broker and a peace maker (even if that is laughable in the strategic sense).

 

[Chadstroma]

I understand the lack of air support is a hindrance but I wonder who is calling the shots for NATO. I just assumed it would come from our input in nato

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1676794731215421441?s=61&t=oX9G006TUZ9alBtC5c4uMQ

Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces stated today that they currently believe that the 1st Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive has Failed due to Ukrainian Forces attempting to use NATO Military Tactics which do not work against Fortified and Heavily-Mined Russian Defenses, however he further stated that Ukraine is now beginning to change Tactics and that he expects for there to be Limited-Successes along the Frontline but No Major Breakthroughs.

I mean, a Colonel knows way more than me and has way more info than I do.... but I would say both you and the Austrian are probably right.

Ukraine is basically using NATO tactics but without the airpower component which is a HUGE part of how NATO fights.

It is kind of like teaching a basketball team to play like the Golden State Warriors but without having some strong 3 point shooters on the team.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I wonder how much of the Russian will to hold Bakhmut, with no strategic value, is now tied to the fact that WAGNER took it? The self-promotion videos from Prigozhin talking about the achievements of his heroes and the incompetence of the Russian generals he hates so much write themselves in that case. It's been a theme as is, but if Bakhmut is lost...

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine war: Front-line troops discuss counter-offensive

Will Russia's defences shatter or hold firm? The BBC gets the view from Ukrainian soldiers on the front line.

www.bbc.com

 

[Chadstroma]

US plans to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine- reports

The controversial weapons package comes amid an ammunition shortage in Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Lukashenko: No one came out of mutiny a hero, Belarus leader tells BBC

The Belarusian leader tells the BBC groups like Wagner must be watched closely to stop rebellions.

www.bbc.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

One of the many lessons being learned is the importance of the defense industrial base and industry capacity. One that we have forgotten the last 20+ years.

Edit: meant "defense industrial base"

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: Syria brought Wagner Group fighters to heel as mutiny unfolded in Russia

As Wagner mercenaries advanced on Moscow in an attempted mutiny in late June, authorities in Syria and Russian military commanders there took a series of swift measures against local Wagner operatives to prevent the uprising spreading, according to six sources familiar with the matter.

www.reuters.com

As Wagner mercenaries advanced on Moscow in an attempted mutiny in late June, authorities in Syria and Russian military commanders there took a series of swift measures against local Wagner operatives to prevent the uprising spreading, according to six sources familiar with the matter.
The previously unreported crackdown included blocking phone lines, summoning around a dozen Wagner commanders to a Russian military base, and ordering mercenary fighters to sign new contracts with the Russian defence ministry or promptly leave Syria, according to the sources, who include Syrian security officials, sources based near deployed Russian forces, and regional officials.
The measures showed how Syrian authorities moved quickly to bring the mercenary force to heel, worried that their key military partner Russia was distracted by events back home, according to two Syrian sources informed of the deployments.

"Wagner's role in Syria - as it was playing it before - is over," said Nawar Shaban, researcher at Omran Center for Strategic Studies, an Istanbul-based independent research group focused on Syria. "Given the events, their relationship with the Syrian defence ministry is now over."

However, senior Syrian military and intelligence officials privately voiced concern as they watched events unfolding that the mutiny could disrupt the Russian military presence they had relied on for so long, according to a senior Syrian Republican Guard officer and a Syrian source briefed on developments.
The mercenary group's presence in Syria is relatively small at between 250 and 450 personnel, or roughly a tenth of the estimated Russian military strength, the two Syrian sources said. There are no official figures on staffing, which vary over time.

Some interesting details here:

After Prigozhin announced his uprising, a group of Russian military officers were quickly dispatched to Syria to help take charge of Wagner forces there, according to a regional military source close to Damascus and two Syrian sources with knowledge of the events, who did not provide further details.
Syria's military intelligence cut landlines and internet links overnight on Friday June 23 from areas where Russian Wagner forces were deployed to prevent them from communicating among themselves, with Wagner in Russia, and even with relatives back home, the three sources said.
By the morning of Saturday June 24, Syrian military intelligence and Russian defence officials were coordinating closely to isolate and control Wagner operatives, according to the senior Republican Guard officer, a Syrian security source and two Syrian sources briefed on the developments.
Around a dozen Wagner officers deployed in Syria's central province of Homs and other areas were summoned to Russia's operational base at Hmeimim in western Latakia province, according to the Republican Guard officer and one of the Syrian sources briefed on the developments. The officer said this occurred "in the early hours of the mutiny."

Interesting. Seems like the majority in Syria signed the contracts. The ones who didn't seem like they went to Mali, which makes sense:

By June 24, Wagner fighters in Syria were asked to sign new contracts by which they report directly to Russia's defence ministry, a source with knowledge of Wagner's deployments and two other sources with knowledge of the events said.
Their pay was also cut, those three sources said.
Those who refused the terms were flown out on Russian Ilyushin planes in the following days, two of those sources said. One said they numbered "in the dozens," surprising Syrian officials who expected more would refuse and head into exile.
Between June 25 and 27, flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 shows at least three trips by a Russian Ilyushin plane between Latakia, Syria and Bamako, the capital of the West African nation of Mali, where Wagner also has operations. Reuters could not establish whether Wagner personnel were on board the flights.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

industrial base and industry capacity

More or less flat since 2012, and rebounding nicely post-COVID.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces are not in Belarus as of July 6, indicating that Prigozhin may be failing to uphold the deal Lukashenko mediated between Prigozhin and

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian and Russian officials largely de-escalated their rhetoric regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 6. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on July 6 that the danger of a man-made disaster at the ZNPP is “gradually decreasing,” following warnings by various Ukrainian officials on July 4 that Russian forces may have placed objects resembling explosive devices on the roofs of two of the ZNPP’s reactor buildings.[22] First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko and Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky also notably visited the ZNPP on July 6 and posted images reportedly near the plant’s dry nuclear waste storage facility.[23] Kiriyenko and Balitsky noted that the plant continues to “operate normally” under Russian control, thus downplaying previous Russian claims that Ukrainian actions were imminently threatening the safety of the ZNPP.[24] Kiriyenko and Balitsky may have visited the plant to portray Russia as a capable custodian of the ZNPP, and their rhetorical posturing during the visit suggests that Russian officials may be stepping back from harsh warnings of imminent disaster at the plant. ISW continues to assess that Russian rhetoric surrounding the ZNPP is meant to discourage Western support for Ukraine by accusing Ukraine of nuclear irresponsibility, as well as to dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting counteroffensive operations into occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[25]

Russian milbloggers claimed that aspects of Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine have severe limitations and may not be as effective as Russian sources have previously portrayed them. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian mobilized service members operating in Zaporizhia Oblast have been on the frontlines since October 2022 without any rotations.[40] The milblogger stated that Russian forces have not been able to rotate these mobilized personnel out of these positions because there are no available personnel to replace them with.[41] The milblogger’s description of acute rotation issues supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russian forces likely lack combat-ready reserves.[42] The failure to conduct any rotations will likely result in a quicker rate of degradation for Russian formations defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine. Other Russian milbloggers accused Russian attack helicopters of striking already destroyed Ukrainian military equipment and suggested that the Russian MoD may be using these repeated hits to report inflated Ukrainian losses.[43] The Kremlin has previously used reports of wildly inflated Ukrainian armored vehicle losses to portray Russian defensive operations as extremely effective.[44]

Select Russian ultranationalists criticized Russian state propaganda for attempting to villainize Prigozhin, however, suggesting that the Kremlin’s attempt to alienate the ultranationalist community from Prigozhin is not succeeding. A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel accused the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs of deliberately leaking footage of the FSB raids to the media in order to portray Prigozhin as a traitor who is only interested in a lavish lifestyle.[13] Another Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel attempted to disprove Rossiya 1’s suggestion that the FSB may have found narcotics at Prigozhin’s mansion.[14] It is not necessarily surprising that Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are attacking Kremlin efforts to blackguard Prigozhin, but a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also condemned the Russian media’s efforts to portray Prigozhin as a corrupt individual, noting that Prigozhin’s home is consistent with that of a wealthy individual and that Prigozhin appears to showcase his military awards throughout his mansion.[15] Another milblogger noted that Prigozhin’s house did not appear that lavish when compared to other Russian billionaires.[16]

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

One of the many lessons being learned is the importance of the defense industrial base and industry capacity. One that we have forgotten the last 20+ years.

Edit: meant "defense industrial base"

Absolutely. It has exposed how poorly we are prepared for a near peer confrontation. If a prolonged engagement, we simply do not have the capability of production to meet demand. After Russia has been degraded and exposed, the only real near peer threat is China. We are ill prepared to support and defend Taiwan if they invaded as our current stockpiles if important weapons like MANPADS are not sufficient and we are woefully behind on production. It is truly a valuable lesson we are learning. There is efforts being made to correct this both for supporting Ukraine and for our future military readiness.

 

[Chadstroma]

industrial base and industry capacity

More or less flat since 2012, and rebounding nicely post-COVID.

I think this is just general industry which is more just based on consumer demand and then the issues of supply chain, workforce shortages, etc. Military industrial production is a bit more complex on top of those challenges. From more simple production like artillery shells where your capacity to produce is really based on peace time demands and you can only have so much for stockpiles. To more complicated production like the Stinger which the US military was in the process of divesting. The production line was closed after 20 years of the US military not ordering any new ones. Reopening the line isn't easy either as some components of it are no longer produced so they have to redesign it. They have made progress and look to increase production by 50% to 60 a month by 2024. For top of the line big ticket purchase items like the F-22, it is not economically feasible to restart production.

It isn't an easy fix and it is very complicated but it is something that we have learned that needs to be better addressed for sure,

 

[PIK95]

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

 

[tri-man 47]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

They were in trouble way before the invasion?

I mean, he’s been beating the drum of “NATO will invade any day now” for a very long time, despite absolutely nobody wanting to do anything of the sort. He, for whatever reason, is using that as a justification for everything, and Russia doesn’t even have anything that’s worth invading for, much less dealing with the 8 months of awful weather on top of that for

Historically, a valuable Russian asset was minerals. It makes me wonder if someone like China has looked at northern/eastern Russia with lustful thoughts.

 

[beer 30]

Demographic decline is staring them in the face. Losing tens of thousands of reproductive aged men isn't going to help.

Russia, regardless of how this ends, is pretty much over as a world power for as far out as you want to look. They were in decline before the war and this is just tipping it further and further from being able to recover.

US expected to announce new military aid package for Ukraine that will include cluster munitions

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told CNN Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia's Wagner paramilitary group, is in the Russian city of St. Petersburg — not Belarus as originally agreed.

www.cnn.com

I don't understand this move on our part. I don't see the upside here for 1. the US 2. Ukraine 3. the World, lose-lose-lose proposition as far as I'm concerned.

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

Kinda sounds that way, doesn't it?

 

[beer 30]

Historically, a valuable Russian asset was minerals. It makes me wonder if someone like China has looked at northern/eastern Russia with lustful thoughts.

If they aren't then we've been reading China wrong for a long time. Pretty sure they view every conflict as an opportunity and they've always been nervous allies with Russia at best. They have to be salivating over this right now. 100% they are prepping to swoop in and save the day by some alternate "belt & road" project for Mother Russia when the time comes. In another 50 years, Russia will be in the rearview mirror and China will have doubled it's land mass.

 

[PIK95]

Demographic decline is staring them in the face. Losing tens of thousands of reproductive aged men isn't going to help.

Russia, regardless of how this ends, is pretty much over as a world power for as far out as you want to look. They were in decline before the war and this is just tipping it further and further from being able to recover.

US expected to announce new military aid package for Ukraine that will include cluster munitions

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told CNN Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia's Wagner paramilitary group, is in the Russian city of St. Petersburg — not Belarus as originally agreed.

www.cnn.com

I don't understand this move on our part. I don't see the upside here for 1. the US 2. Ukraine 3. the World, lose-lose-lose proposition as far as I'm concerned.

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

Kinda sounds that way, doesn't it?

We are already the dominant force. We can scale DOWN imo. Now I would argue where the money SHOULD go but I'm not gonna do that as you guys are already crossing into you know what and this thread is to valuable imo.

 

[Chadstroma]

Demographic decline is staring them in the face. Losing tens of thousands of reproductive aged men isn't going to help.

Russia, regardless of how this ends, is pretty much over as a world power for as far out as you want to look. They were in decline before the war and this is just tipping it further and further from being able to recover.

US expected to announce new military aid package for Ukraine that will include cluster munitions

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told CNN Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia's Wagner paramilitary group, is in the Russian city of St. Petersburg — not Belarus as originally agreed.

www.cnn.com

I don't understand this move on our part. I don't see the upside here for 1. the US 2. Ukraine 3. the World, lose-lose-lose proposition as far as I'm concerned.

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

Kinda sounds that way, doesn't it?

We are already the dominant force. We can scale DOWN imo. Now I would argue where the money SHOULD go but I'm not gonna do that as you guys are already crossing into you know what and this thread is to valuable imo.

We are the dominant force but the gap between that and China is closing quickly. They already have the largest Navy in the world though the bulk of it is older vessels they are adding new, very good ships at a quick pace, about 20 a year now which includes two aircraft carriers, with a third being built and a 4th being developed- which they are improving each as they go. Their airpower and land forces are similarly growing and improving. The quality of the Chinese military is easily far superior to Russian and it is growing and improving tremendously at break neck speed. As I have said several times in this thread.... our support for Ukraine now has significant value in checking China and preventing a future war with them. Of course, stopping Russian aggression is important but the value of every dollar we have spent on supporting them has direct value and impact on our future American lives which if not spent would, in my view, greatly increases the chance of many lost American lives (not to mention Chinese and Taiwanese) and much higher dollar cost. A drawn down now would be a tragic and epic mistake. We are losing the war of preparing right now.

 

[Chadstroma]

Historically, a valuable Russian asset was minerals. It makes me wonder if someone like China has looked at northern/eastern Russia with lustful thoughts.

If they aren't then we've been reading China wrong for a long time. Pretty sure they view every conflict as an opportunity and they've always been nervous allies with Russia at best. They have to be salivating over this right now. 100% they are prepping to swoop in and save the day by some alternate "belt & road" project for Mother Russia when the time comes. In another 50 years, Russia will be in the rearview mirror and China will have doubled it's land mass.

China is and will make Russia it's biooooch.

The cheap oil China is buying from Russia now is just a starting point.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The US spends more on the military than the next 10 countries combined.

 

[HellToupee]

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

No ,

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

 

[Chadstroma]

The US spends more on the military than the next 10 countries combined.

Which is why we are dominant.

Of our budget, most of it does not go into building a newer/better military.
We spend 38% on operations and maintenance.
We spend 24% on salary/benefits of active and retired personnel.
14% goes into research and development. 17% into procurement. The rest into misc.

Why would we want to give that up and let China think.... maybe we can win.
Chinese military spending is growing and continues to grow each year. They spent 6.6% year over year in 2020 than 2019, 6.8% more in 2021. 7.1% in 2022. These are Chinese self reported numbers which for anyone that knows China- you can never trust the numbers that they provide as being the actual numbers.

Epic foolishness to think we can draw down our military.

 

[culdeus]

Idk. Navies of all sides would be neutralized by anti ship missle bombardment including us carrier groups. We see javelins and think they are neat but asms are far more advanced.

And for whatever reason we aren't firing them off (much) at Russia.

 

[Chadstroma]

Idk. Navies of all sides would be neutralized by anti ship missle bombardment including us carrier groups. We see javelins and think they are neat but asms are far more advanced.

And for whatever reason we aren't firing them off (much) at Russia.

We haven't given Ukraine much in terms of capability there. The Moskva was sunk with two Neptune ASM hits after they distracted them with drones. They damaged/sunk a couple of other ships and the Russian Navy in the Black Sea does not operate. They are in port protected. That being said, the Russian capabilities to counter measure ASM is laughable compared to ours. So there are no targets for the Ukrainians as they have neutralized one of the major pre-war advantages the Russians had over them.

The biggest threat to in as much as ASM is the hypersonic missiles. However, we have already shown the ability to defend against these as a Ukrainian Patriot battery has shot down Russian Kinzhal hyersonic missiles. This Ukrainian Patriot battery is not the same version we use (meaning we have even better equipment). Taking that information we can say that either A) Chinese hypersonics are comparable to Russian and thus we should have a good success rate against them or B) Chinese hypersonic technology exceeds that of Russia by leaps and bounds. I am talking out of my rear here as I have no data at all to compare but I don't think it is a stretch to guess that they are closer to being comparable than China being so much ahead it makes a difference in our ability to knock them out of the sky.

However, this actually goes to my point that we can no draw down because of the Chinese threat. The difference between our capabilities and Chinese is shrinking. The shrinking is not slowing down but accelerating.

The American people have to wake up about China.

 

[Chadstroma]

Also... the Neptune ASM are Ukrainian made missiles.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Are you guys saying our military is weak and needs more money?

it needs to be better in acquisition and identifying/developing the key systems for future wars. the r&d/acquisition process is so cumbersome, conservative, and slow.

it also needs to be better at handling low tech conflicts (Afghanistan/Iraq for example) while not sacrificing it's continued technology development. we spent a lot of money there, at the direction of our government, that allowed China to close the gap.

 

[themeistersinger]

Why does Putin keep saying Russia will fall apart unless the take over Ukraine?

Ukraine was never going to invade Russia, nobody was.

He stayed in power with fearmongering, nobody is going to call him out and stay in the public eye for long there, and he has to try and keep whatever grip he has, even though everyone else outside his country can clearly see that Russia is in a lot of trouble as a country no matter what happens in Ukraine

They were in trouble way before the invasion?

Demographic decline is staring them in the face. Losing tens of thousands of reproductive aged men isn't going to help.

Actually, losing reproductive age men doesn't harm population growth that much. Losing reproductive age women does have a big impact.

 

[themeistersinger]

Zelensky brings home Azovstal commanders. From Turkey.

They were supposed to be there until the war is over. But not anymore.

Also, Erdogan publicly stated that Ukraine should be in NATO.

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1677693390186598400

 

[themeistersinger]

Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: Lots of recent discussion about the ‘slow’ Ukrainian offensives. What is actually occurring now is a steady, deliberate taking down of the Russian 'operational system'. This takes time. 1/25 🧵 2/ Wh...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The Russian Air Force Is Getting Destroyed in Ukraine

The Russian Aerospace Forces - or Air Force - are having a tough month. During the Wagner Group mutiny in June, the Russian air force lost eight aircraft in the span of a few hours.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[The Kerminator]

Ukraine provides ideal ‘testing ground’ for western weaponry

Artillery including US M777 howitzers, German Panzerhaubitze 2000s, French Caesars and Polish Krabs that are more accurate than Russian canon, have been softening the ground for Ukraine’s infantry and repelling Russian advances.
A western artillery system is like a “Mercedes-Benz” compared with a Russian Soviet-era car, but Nato-grade weaponry has also shown its own shortcomings, according to Petro Pyatakov, an arms industry consultant and retired colonel.
“It has become apparent during operations that these systems were not intended for such intense warfare” in which Russia’s artillery machine fires nonstop and indiscriminately. “All of them require a break . . . after two or three minutes of firing at maximum speed, which is not the case with Soviet guns,” Pyatakov said.
Pyatakov confirmed that there was an “active interest from western artillery manufacturers in receiving feedback from Ukrainian gunners . . . to eliminate shortcomings”.
“It’s not just the Ukrainians who are learning how to fight a modern, high-intensity war. The Russians are as well,” said a western defence adviser.
“There is a risk that [the west] will get left behind when it comes to battlefield tactics unless we absorb the lessons to be learnt with some urgency,” the adviser said.

GPS-guided munitions for artillery, as well as multiple-launch rocket systems such as the US Himars, were “highly accurate.” But, Reznikov added, Russia’s strong radio-electronic systems were finding ways to jam them.
“The Russians come up with a countermeasure, we inform our partners and they make a new countermeasure against this countermeasure,” Reznikov said.

The same approach is deployed to improve the performance of surveillance and strike drones, which are being used on an unprecedented scale but are also frequently jammed.
“It’s like a constant pendulum. This is a war of technology,” Reznikov said.
Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, said the west had learnt a great deal about how Russian systems operated “at a tactical level, and they have observed the impact of [drones] and other systems on broad-scale combat operations”.
“On the other hand, the west has exposed a lot of its own capabilities to Russia and China, and therefore will have to change the ways that some of its equipment work in order to retain competitive advantage,” Watling said.

Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was visiting Kyiv in mid-May, by which time Ukraine had allegedly downed several Kinzhals. However, Ukrainian diplomats said the Chinese envoy did not believe that US-made Patriots had intercepted Russia’s hypersonic missiles.
“I proposed that if there are doubts, we are ready to provide proof,” Reznikov said.
Li left Kyiv without viewing the evidence, Reznikov added.

There is a LOT being learned in Ukraine.

From tech to tactics to theory. We have not seen a war like this.... basically since WWII really.... where you had opposing forces of bulk using "modern" weapons. There has been a wealth of equipment that we have been able to get our hands on to take apart and figure out how it works. Then this article points out that even though NATO equipment is superior to Russian, it does not mean that there are weak points or areas to improve.

No doubt that there will be new weapon systems developed out of what is learned in this.

And the Russian military export industry is dead.

But isn't the reverse true? If our equipment is so much more superior, when some of it falls into Russian hands there is a lot more to be lost than when we come upon some of their equipment.