*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

Putting Russia’s Army in the Shadow of the Storm

Holding Russia’s logistics and command and control at risk is a key contributor to shaping the conditions for successful Ukrainian offensive operations.

rusi.org

The introduction of Storm Shadow should therefore not be seen as an escalation, but rather a means of resolving serious tactical challenges in support of Ukraine’s efforts to liberate its territory. The Storm Shadow is a cruise missile with much greater range than GMLRS. Its warhead is also specifically designed for destroying hardened targets, while the munition has a number of stealth features and penetration aids that should make it extremely hard for Russian air defences to accurately detect, let alone intercept.

The significance of Storm Shadow in the Ukrainian arsenal is that it holds a wide range of Russian critical dependencies at risk: fuel, ammunition dumps, command and control bunkers, and other high value targets. The Storm Shadow stockpile is small, and Ukraine will have to select the targets to be struck with great care. The critical priority will be to perform strikes that achieve disproportionate effect and that create specific disruption in areas that Ukraine can exploit in its conduct of offensive operations.

Ukraine war latest: Hypersonic missile 'destroys US-made air defence system' - but Russian nuclear strategists 'should be very worried'

Russia claims to have destroyed a US-built Patriot air defence system using a hypersonic Kinzhal missile during its overnight strikes on Ukraine's capital. Listen to a Sky News Daily podcast special on how long the West could keep funding Ukraine's war effort as you scroll.

news.sky.com

Ukrainian forces take back more territory in Bakhmut - but 'enemy advancing somewhat'​

Ukrainian forces have taken back about 20 square km (7.5 square miles) of territory around Bakhmut in recent days, the country's deputy defence minister has said.
That's around three times the size of London Gatwick Airport.
However, Russian troops are still "advancing somewhat" in the eastern city and heavy fighting has continued, Hanna Maliar said.
"In the current situation, our troops are doing their best and even more," she said on Telegram.
"The fact that the defence of Bakhmut lasts for so many months and there are advances in certain areas is the strength of our fighters and the high level of professionalism of the defence command."

Ukraine war latest: Hypersonic missile 'destroys US-made air defence system' - but Russian nuclear strategists 'should be very worried'

Russia claims to have destroyed a US-built Patriot air defence system using a hypersonic Kinzhal missile during its overnight strikes on Ukraine's capital. Listen to a Sky News Daily podcast special on how long the West could keep funding Ukraine's war effort as you scroll.

news.sky.com

What does securing part of Bakhmut's key supply route mean for Ukraine?​

Earlier today, the UK's Ministry of Defence reported that Ukrainian troops had re-established "more secure" use of the key 0506 supply road into Bakhmut.
As months of fierce battles have torn through the city, the road has been one of the areas targeted by Russian forces in the hope of cutting off supplies for Ukrainian soldiers.
It enters from the west of the eastern city, snaking through the village of Khromove, and has been described by Ukrainian troops as the "highway of life".
So what would it mean if Kyiv secured it?
Defence studies expert Dr Marina Miron said the route is a "lifeline" for Ukrainians inside the beleaguered city and taking full control of it would make it "more difficult for the Wagner group to surround them".
It would also allow them to "receive reinforcements and supplies as well as evacuate casualties," she told Sky News.
That, in turn, would complicate "Wagner's task of a potential encirclement", she added.

https://twitter.com/Andrew_S_Bowen/status/1658500219313565700

Prigozhin claims an American was killed in Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1658498750334095362

Short thread on the Russian missile attack last night: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1658479217393426432

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1658396828641968129?cxt=HHwWgoC2vaHI54MuAAAA

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1658393318378577920

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1658448690078523392?cxt=HHwWgIC9pf-S_4MuAAAA

 

[Don't Toews Me]

May 16, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

A retired US Army Special Forces soldier has been identified as the US citizen killed by Russian artillery in the embattled city of Bakhmut this week.

www.cnn.com

A US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a United States official tells CNN.

The US is still assessing the extent of the damage, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by the Ukrainians.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit.

“We cannot comment on this. We'll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” Ukrainian air force spokesperson Serhiy Ihnat said.

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in the country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged.

Patriot system damaged in last night's missile attacks.

 

[themeistersinger]

Belarus leader Lukashenko's absence at ceremony sparks health speculation

The state news agency gave no reason for Lukashenko’s absence days after he appeared unwell and skipped some events in Moscow, the last time he was seen in public.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[GroveDiesel]

Link

Just awesome. The anti-air defense system we supplied Ukraine with stopped 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, several cruise missiles, several ballistic missiles and a number of drones from a coordinate attack by Russia on Kyiv last night.

Russia has to be soiling themselves right now. Their threats are growing more impotent by the day.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd imagine fresh pledges of support and arms transfers by Germany and France aren't exactly what Russia was hoping for from the West while Ukraine takes its time preparing for whatever comes next.

The messaging is pretty clear: NATO's still all-in.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Former U.S. Special Forces Soldier Is Killed in Ukraine

Nick Maimer had cautioned against indifference to the war, noting that the bloodshed is “not happening to someone else, it’s happening to our fellow humans.”

www.thedailybeast.com

A former Green Beret who traveled to Ukraine to help train troops there has been killed in Bakhmut, his family has confirmed.

Nick Maimer, an Idaho man and 20-year military veteran, had been teaching English in Europe last year when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s notorious Wagner Group on Monday boasted about killing Maimer in fierce fighting in Bakhmut, and his death was later confirmed by his family to The Idaho Statesman.

Maimer’s uncle, Paul, identified the body seen in a video shared by Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin as that of his nephew.

“He persevered through a lot in his life. I had the utmost respect for him. A lot of people can learn from who he was and what he had accomplished in his short life. In 45 years, he lived a lot. He went over there as a humanitarian trying to do good for this world,” Paul Maimer told the Statesman.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

May 16, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

A retired US Army Special Forces soldier has been identified as the US citizen killed by Russian artillery in the embattled city of Bakhmut this week.

www.cnn.com

A US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a United States official tells CNN.

The US is still assessing the extent of the damage, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by the Ukrainians.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit.

“We cannot comment on this. We'll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” Ukrainian air force spokesperson Serhiy Ihnat said.

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in the country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged.

Patriot system damaged in last night's missile attacks.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1658599129780502530?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

U.S. officials say a Patriot defense system appears to have suffered some damage in Ukraine but it is not believed to be significant enough to even remove the system from Ukraine.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged, US officials say

A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

www.reuters.com

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.
The official added that the United States would have a better understanding in the coming days and information could change over time.

 

[fatness]

Armed with Storm Shadow, Ukraine could ‘starve’ Russian front lines of logistics, leadership

The UK’s decision to arm Ukraine with the long-range Storm Shadow missile could serve as a game changer, with a top British officer telling Breaking Defense the weapon will be especially valuable in taking out sites vital for Russia’s logistics.

Good article.

 

[fatness]

May 16, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

A retired US Army Special Forces soldier has been identified as the US citizen killed by Russian artillery in the embattled city of Bakhmut this week.

www.cnn.com

A US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a United States official tells CNN.

The US is still assessing the extent of the damage, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by the Ukrainians.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit.

“We cannot comment on this. We'll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” Ukrainian air force spokesperson Serhiy Ihnat said.

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in the country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged.

Patriot system damaged in last night's missile attacks.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1658599129780502530?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

U.S. officials say a Patriot defense system appears to have suffered some damage in Ukraine but it is not believed to be significant enough to even remove the system from Ukraine.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged, US officials say

A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

www.reuters.com

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.
The official added that the United States would have a better understanding in the coming days and information could change over time.

The bad news here is that Russia has learned how to figure out where the Patriot systems are, using something transmitted by the Patriot systems.

 

[fatness]

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov gets frank in a new interview​

Do Ukrainian secret services target Russian propagandists? Well, let’s put it this way: we’ve already successfully targeted quite a few people.

 

[Orange&Blue]

May 16, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

A retired US Army Special Forces soldier has been identified as the US citizen killed by Russian artillery in the embattled city of Bakhmut this week.

www.cnn.com

A US-made Patriot system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a United States official tells CNN.

The US is still assessing the extent of the damage, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by the Ukrainians.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday in a post on Telegram that “a high-precision strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kyiv hit a US-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.”

Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit.

“We cannot comment on this. We'll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” Ukrainian air force spokesperson Serhiy Ihnat said.

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in the country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged.

Patriot system damaged in last night's missile attacks.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1658599129780502530?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

U.S. officials say a Patriot defense system appears to have suffered some damage in Ukraine but it is not believed to be significant enough to even remove the system from Ukraine.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged, US officials say

A U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system being used by Ukraine likely suffered some damage from a Russian strike, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday, adding that it did not appear to have been destroyed.

www.reuters.com

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.
The official added that the United States would have a better understanding in the coming days and information could change over time.

The bad news here is that Russia has learned how to figure out where the Patriot systems are, using something transmitted by the Patriot systems.

patriot systems use a powerful radar. it's not a secret where they are once that thing turns on.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Link

Just awesome. The anti-air defense system we supplied Ukraine with stopped 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, several cruise missiles, several ballistic missiles and a number of drones from a coordinate attack by Russia on Kyiv last night.

Russia has to be soiling themselves right now. Their threats are growing more impotent by the day.

i don't have access, but they are saying it shot down all that? i know the 6 hypersonic, but didn't know the others as well.

They should use their other systems for the drones. those missiles aren't cheap.

 

[themeistersinger]

Link

Just awesome. The anti-air defense system we supplied Ukraine with stopped 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, several cruise missiles, several ballistic missiles and a number of drones from a coordinate attack by Russia on Kyiv last night.

Russia has to be soiling themselves right now. Their threats are growing more impotent by the day.

i don't have access, but they are saying it shot down all that? i know the 6 hypersonic, but didn't know the others as well.

They should use their other systems for the drones. those missiles aren't cheap.

I think that's the total amount of stuff shot down that night. It doesn't mean that all of it was taken out by Patriot missiles, although the Hypersonic ones were almost assuredly done by Patriot, since nothing else is likely to hit them except out of dumb luck.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian State TV Issues Stark Warning Over Threat of Defeat

 

[Orange&Blue]

Link

Just awesome. The anti-air defense system we supplied Ukraine with stopped 6 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, several cruise missiles, several ballistic missiles and a number of drones from a coordinate attack by Russia on Kyiv last night.

Russia has to be soiling themselves right now. Their threats are growing more impotent by the day.

i don't have access, but they are saying it shot down all that? i know the 6 hypersonic, but didn't know the others as well.

They should use their other systems for the drones. those missiles aren't cheap.

I think that's the total amount of stuff shot down that night. It doesn't mean that all of it was taken out by Patriot missiles, although the Hypersonic ones were almost assuredly done by Patriot, since nothing else is likely to hit them except out of dumb luck.

ah.

i agree.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine

At least one person has died and several were injured in the latest Russian shelling to hit frontline regions in eastern and southern Ukraine. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The damage to a Patriot air defense system following a Russian missile attack near Kyiv on Tuesday morning is minimal, three US officials tell CNN, with one official describing it as "minor" damage.

The US sent inspectors to examine the system on Tuesday, after being told by the Ukrainians that the system appeared to have been damaged, one official said.

The system itself is still operational, the officials said, and the radar component of the Patriot, one of its most important elements, was not damaged. US officials do not believe the Patriot will need to be removed from the battlefield for repairs.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the Bakhmut area despite Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Ru

www.understandingwar.org

The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.[10] The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid Wagner Group’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture Bakhmut.[11] These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area. The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. ISW assesses that the Russian military command likely decided to reprioritize operations and sustainment efforts in recent weeks to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, although the continued concentration on Bakhmut may suggest that immediate tactical concerns could be undermining the larger effort.[12]

 

[Chadstroma]

China has its own reasons to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine​

Story by Peter Morici • Yesterday 3:01 PM


The United States needs detente with China to deescalate the danger of an armed conflict over Taiwan, losing control of maritime routes through the South China Sea and other potential Pacific region hotspots.

This requires looking past China’s rhetoric about achieving broad technological dominance and recent provocations to focus on China’s economic concerns and desire to play a more assertive role in global diplomacy — for example, its success in helping normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and a proposal to end the conflict in Ukraine.

China won’t indefinitely accept a subordinate status to the West across leading-edge technologies. China already is out in front in battery technology, for example, but it will always need the West.
Neither China, the U.S., the EU nor Japan have large enough domestic markets to support the scale in R&D or monopoly on engineering talent to accomplish across-the-board technological dominance. Consider the multinational character of semiconductor supply chains and recent U.S. breakthroughs in battery technology

China’s economy is too dependent on trade and its navy too formidable to be confined within the First Island Chain running from Kuril Islands through Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Taiwan carries strategic status as the manufacturer of more than 90% of the world’s most advanced computer chips. Capturing Taiwan would give the Chinese Navy a base of operations to push the overstretched U.S. Navy into subordinate status in the Western Pacific. China then would control the vital maritime lanes from Asia to the U.S. West Coast

Maintaining Taiwan’s de facto independence is essential to American interests. Deterring an invasion from China will require arming Taiwan with the most sophisticated weapons and not permitting Beijing to become more confident by allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine.
The losses Russian forces are taking in the Ukraine should give China’s President Xi Jinping some pause, but the outcome is critical. Even if Russia manages to hold on to a piece of Ukraine in addition to Crimea, NATO has been hardened and expanded. Chinese provocations are causing a similar shoring up of U.S defense arrangements in the Pacific.
The long-term prospects for the Russian economy are poor, with its exodus of talent, closure of traditional markets for its oil and gas, and limited access to Western technology. Western sanctions and Ukrainian valor have forced Russia into dependency on China to sustain its economy and war effort.
But China needs good relations with Europe and a better image there. With Americans tightening controls on China’s access to U.S. technology and lobbying allies to do the same, Xi must cultivate Europe to assure continued access to western knowhow and broad foreign markets.
Yet significant majorities in Germany, France and most of Europe view China unfavorably. Consequently, Xi should see advantage in pressuring Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to deal. At the conclusion of his April meetings with Xi, French President Emmanuel Macron said, “I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and bring everybody to the negotiating table.” His critics notwithstanding, Macron may be spot on.
Accessing China’s leverage with Russia by bringing it into a five-sided process — the United States, Europe, U.K., Russia and the Ukraine — would permit Beijing to buff its global image by playing a constructive role in a high-stakes European security issue.
With the war in Ukraine resolved, the United States could then devote more resources to the Pacific and would be in a stronger position to negotiate with China to deescalate tensions. A deal would be terribly difficult — neither side is about to give up Taiwan — but both sides could accept naval parity and agree to curb their arms race.
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia detains three hypersonic rocket scientists on treason charges

Aerodynamics specialist Dr Valery Zvegintsev, 78, is the latest of three prominent scientists from the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in Novosibirsk to be detained

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[themeistersinger]

YouTube Is Taking Down Content Featuring Wagner Mercenary Group | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The Dangers of Overhyping Ukraine's Counteroffensive

To support Ukraine effectively, the Western media should stop overhyping the counteroffensive and recognize its limitations and challenges.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia detains three hypersonic rocket scientists on treason charges

Aerodynamics specialist Dr Valery Zvegintsev, 78, is the latest of three prominent scientists from the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in Novosibirsk to be detained

www.dailymail.co.uk

Is this not the most Soviet thing since the Soviets Union died? Geez.

 

[themeistersinger]

How Ukraine Peace Talks Evolved

If you’re ever injured in an accident, you can check out Morgan & Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. For more information go to https://www.wordonthe...

www.youtube.com

 

[Chadstroma]

The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.[10] The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid Wagner Group’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture Bakhmut.[11] These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area. The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. ISW assesses that the Russian military command likely decided to reprioritize operations and sustainment efforts in recent weeks to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, although the continued concentration on Bakhmut may suggest that immediate tactical concerns could be undermining the larger effort.[12]

Bakhmut seems to be a powerful draw for Russian forces. It seems to be having the same effect of a feint offensive elsewhere and perhaps more believable. I do hope this weakens Russian units at the point of attack of where the Ukrainians are focusing with their counter offensive.

 

[fatness]

YouTube Is Taking Down Content Featuring Wagner Mercenary Group | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I'd like to see this on more mainstream outlets, not zerohedge and hotair, before thinking it might be true.

 

[fatness]

The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.[10] The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid Wagner Group’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture Bakhmut.[11] These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area. The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. ISW assesses that the Russian military command likely decided to reprioritize operations and sustainment efforts in recent weeks to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, although the continued concentration on Bakhmut may suggest that immediate tactical concerns could be undermining the larger effort.[12]

Bakhmut seems to be a powerful draw for Russian forces. It seems to be having the same effect of a feint offensive elsewhere and perhaps more believable. I do hope this weakens Russian units at the point of attack of where the Ukrainians are focusing with their counter offensive.

It's like the best flypaper in the world for catching the Russian military.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Latest news on Russia's war in Ukraine

Explosions were heard in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions in the early hours of Thursday, as authorities activated air defenses against a nationwide attack. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

As intense combat continues in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, one Ukrainian unit says it has made more progress on the western outskirts of the city.

The Third Separate Assault Brigade said its recent "offensive actions" have helped it stake out a strong position ahead of Ukraine's anticipated counteroffensive. Brigade leaders said the breakthrough came in an area about 2000 meters (about 1.25 miles) wide and 700 meters (a little less than half-a-mile) deep.

The Ukrainian fighters claim they've killed at least 50 Russian troops and wounded as many as 100 more, taking an additional four Russians prisoner. This has significantly cut into the enemy's reserves in the area, the brigade said.

CNN cannot independently verify the brigade's claims.

Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say

How Ukraine could become the next South Korea.

www.politico.com

U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.
The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.
It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow appear inclined to ever admit defeat. It’s also becoming increasingly likely amid the growing sense within the administration that an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.

A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.
It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.
“We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine. The official said such planning is a growing focus of the administration, whereas in past months “it was all about the urgent and short-term.”

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1659218540551979008

The vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences says the country has lost 50,000 scientists in the last five years

https://twitter.com/russophiliac/status/1659200288065200153

https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1659215445302579201?cxt=HHwWgsDQ8YLq24YuAAAA

Norwegian Defence Minister, Bjørn Arild Gram, saying during joint press conference with UK counterpart F-16s for #Ukraine "are not on the agenda", and not something he wishes to discuss. I just don't get what the hang up is with providing combat aircraft.

Just totally destroyed: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1659178358410706946

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-signs-russia-intl-cmd/index.html

Given the volume of US and NATO hardware, advice and training poured into this operation – with a senior US official recently telling Congress the US had coached Kyiv in how to “surprise” – it seems fair to assume this delay in declaring the start of the assault is a tactic, not the product of Ukrainian chaos, disorganization, and a relatively wet April leaving the ground too soft.

Announcing the start is entirely in the gift of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Declare the operation underway, and the clock ticks immediately for the first results. Say it has yet to get underway, and any mounting losses Russia sustains are just in the cut and thrust of normal frontline attrition. Over the past month, Zelensky’s obfuscatory comments that the operation’s “first important steps” would “happen soon,” or needed “a bit more time,” have just doubled down on Kyiv’s initial pledge they would not announce its start.

It is possible we only learn the counteroffensive has begun when its first tangible results are revealed. A lot of what is happening is not playing out in public.

The aim of this confusion is clearly to keep Moscow off-balance, unable to assess whether each new attack by Ukrainian forces is “it,” or just another probe.

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'has never looked weaker' after 'remarkable development'

Russia has "never looked weaker" and now that it has used every piece of modern conventional military equipment in its arsenal its position will only get worse, according to a defence researcher. Listen to our Daily podcast on how long the West could fund the war while you scroll.

news.sky.com

Three potential reasons behind Russia's high-level missile attacks​

There had been a 50-day lull in Russian attacks on Ukraine, but this morning saw the ninth multiple missile strike this month.
Military analyst Sean Bell has set out three possible reasons.
The first is that Russia has "limited options" so wants to "sustain pressure on the leadership and population and erode their will to fight".
The second, he says, is "Russia will want to distract Ukraine from their preparations for the forthcoming offensive" that is expected to begin soon.
Lastly, he says Moscow will want to "weaken" the Ukrainian air defences by using up the country's "limited supplies of air defence missiles".
The overnight attack came after Russia claimed to have destroyed a US-provided Patriot air defence system protecting the capital Kyiv - a claim Ukraine and the US deny.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas on Bakhmut’s flanks. Ukrainian

www.understandingwar.org

Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia. Prigozhin responded to a media inquiry on May 17 about several allegations from Russian Telegram channels — which are reportedly affiliated with the Russian Presidential Administration and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) — about Prigozhin’s political aspirations in Russia.[12] These channels claimed that Prigozhin is using the battle for Bakhmut and war in Ukraine to become a political figure in Russia rather than actually fighting for Russia’s interests.[13] The journalist directly asked Prigozhin if he thinks that Russian siloviki are trying to signal to him via these Telegram channels.[14] Prigozhin confirmed that he had an interaction with an unnamed Russian senior official “recently” who had accused Prigozhin of deliberately acting in his own self-interest.[15] Prigozhin emphasized that this official was not Russian President Vladimir Putin but indirectly implied that these sentiments are widespread in the Russian Presidential Administration — noting that the Telegram posts reflect the collective opinion of the bureaucratic community.

The Russian siloviki may be intimidating Russian officials affiliated with Prigozhin to discourage their cooperation with Wagner. One of the Telegram channels mentioned in the media inquiry noted that Prigozhin is losing contact with Chairperson of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin and had a fight with First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko who originally supported his initiatives.[16] Volodin, for example, reportedly stopped pushing Wagner’s agendas to avoid a conflict with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The channel observed that a member of the Russian Communist Party, Viktor Sobolev, originally supported a bill that favored Wagner only to later denounce Wagner as an “illegal armed formation” on May 15.[17] The channel noted that Prigozhin still has contact with Putin’s administration via Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Executive Office Anton Vaino and noted that Prigozhin’s fate lies entirely in Putin’s hands. Shoigu is reportedly unsuccessfully attempting to convince Putin to eliminate Prigozhin due to Prigozhin’s failure to secure battlefield victories — which likely indicates that Prigozhin’s bloody efforts to capture Bakhmut are in fact an attempt to compete with Shoigu for self-preservation.

The siloviki appear to be unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience. Prigozhin stated that he is ready to take on the “bureaucrats” and accused them of attempting to gain more authority while using Wagner to fight the war. Prigozhin also accused unnamed officials of being apathetic about Russian deaths on the frontlines and sarcastically stated that the future Russian defense minister has been in Bakhmut for over a week when responding to a question asking if Shoigu had accepted his invitation to visit the Bakhmut frontline.[18] Prigozhin had been recently publicizing his cooperation with former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics-turned-Wagner-Group-deputy-commander Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, and it is possible that Prigozhin may be attempting to promote Mizintsev as a replacement for Shoigu.[19] Prigozhin is likely aware that Putin is not entirely convinced of Shoigu’s ability to win the war and may be hopeful that a decisive victory in Bakhmut would give him the leverage to replace Shoigu with Wagner-affiliated officials. Both Prigozhin and Shoigu likely perceive this feud as an existential matter.

Ukraine and China Will Dominate G7 Summit, but a New Threat Lurks: A.I.

The leaders are expected to hold their first talks on a common regulatory approach to generative artificial intelligence.

www.nytimes.com

Mr. Biden often says that Russia is already defeated. But the fear permeating the seven large democracies here is that unless the counteroffensive proves highly successful, Ukraine will settle into a bloody, frozen conflict in which the best hope would be an armistice, reminiscent of the one that brought a halt to fighting on the Korean Peninsula 70 years ago this summer.

Ukraine Begins Pre-Offensive Probe of Russian Lines

“I would really hate to be a Russian private sitting in a trench right now,” said one former U.S. military commander.

foreignpolicy.com

Ukrainian officials are also keenly aware they are playing an expectations game with Western allies, especially the United States, which has just $6 billion left in weapons it can give to Kyiv from Pentagon shelves. Kyiv might not feel overt pressure from Washington to launch the much-vaunted spring offensive. But the Ukrainians are worried that if they aren’t able to take a Kharkiv-like bite out of Russian gains in the Donbas, or get their new long-range guns in range of Crimea, it will look like a failure to U.S. and NATO officials who are already clutching their pearls, tightening the purse strings, and watching the political clock.
“The real worry I heard in Ukraine was very clear,” said Phillips P. O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews who recently returned from meetings with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. “The worry is they launch this offensive, it makes some gains, but it’s not a knockout blow. So it’s like, okay, we’ve done well, but it hasn’t driven Russia out of the war, and they instantly get pressure from the Biden administration to settle. This is their fear.”

Russia may need tens or even hundreds of thousands of troops to begin conducting offensives again, not to mention better equipment. Russian war museum curators have watched with horror as their treasures trundle to the front lines. But Ukrainian officials aren’t anticipating a knockout blow. “It’s impossible to destroy all Russian troops at the moment,” said one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Ukraine is anxious to reclaim the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which has faced the unfortunate threat of a meltdown since Russian troops occupied it last year, threatening the power supply that cools the reactors. Ukraine also now has the reach to jab Crimea, in Russian hands since 2014. But woolens, more than weapons, might be the issue. “Are their own forces ready?” said Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe. “Do they have enough combat power that can penetrate multiple trench lines and minefields?”
Hodges added that Ukraine doesn’t need to push on hundreds of miles of Russian lines to have an impact, but can do damage with probing attacks in a handful of places that keep Russian troops in place and prevent them from moving.

“When you combine courageous, well-led infantry supported by artillery, you can still make limited gains,” Hodges said. “So just imagine what it’ll be like when they’ve got a dozen armored brigades with tanks and mechanized infantry and armored engineers and all these combined arms teams that have been practicing and rehearsing over and over how they’re going to do this.”
“I would really hate to be a Russian private sitting in a trench right now, waiting for all this to start,” he added.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Latest news on Russia's war in Ukraine

Explosions were heard in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions in the early hours of Thursday, as authorities activated air defenses against a nationwide attack. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

A Patriot missile battery damaged by a Russian missile barrage against Kyiv has been fixed, the Pentagon said Thursday.

“One Patriot system was damaged, but it has now been fixed and is fully back and operational,” said Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh.

CNN reported on Wednesday that the damage was minimal.

Interesting and potentially bad for Russia: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1659287486407798807

Pentagon Says Accounting Mistake Leaves U.S. With $3 Billion More in Arms for Ukraine

Defense Department wrongly used valuation for new equipment, rather than for used equipment drawn from U.S. stocks.

www.wsj.com

The Pentagon has overcounted the value of the weaponry it has sent to Ukraine by at least $3 billion, an error that could eliminate the need to ask Congress for more money to keep Kyiv in the fight this spring, people familiar with the situation said.
The military services inadvertently used a higher value for at least some of the weaponry the Pentagon sent to Ukraine, using valuations for new equipment instead of the older gear pulled out of U.S. stockpiles, the people said.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1659279145778442246

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1659220634566815747

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months

Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

news.yahoo.com

Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.

 

[Chadstroma]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.

I am not sure how many more other than the Dutch will be willing to part with their F-16's. The Dutch have 26 F-35's in service (18 more to come) as well as the 24 F-16's. I looked to see what block they were but could not find the info from my search but it may be a mix of A/B and C/D, with the A/B likely to have been upgraded during service, as I did see that they began to take delivery in 1979 (A block) and ended in 1992 (C or D).

If transferred to the Ukrainians, it will be interesting to see their use and survivability. Without question, they are more capable than Mig-29's and Su-27's that make up the Ukrainian multi role force. Since the lines have stabilized the Ukrainians have kept their Mig's and Sukhoi's out of danger of Russian anti-air batteries, much like the Russians have kept their air power from Ukrainian (until a couple of days ago).

 

[fatness]

The underground tunnel complex below Putin's Black Sea Palace.

Second link to it: https://www.businessinsider.com/rev...black-sea-bunker-russia-kremlin-palace-2023-5

 

[themeistersinger]

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/05/18/putins-war-week-64-patriots-score-big-and-the-scene-is-set-for-offensive-action-n747749

 

[top dog]

Looks like Bakhmut may have finally fallen. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hmut-kyiv-says-situation-critical-2023-05-20/

May 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Wagner private army claimed on Saturday to have finally captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, while Kyiv denied the city had fallen though it called the situation there critical.

If confirmed, the announcement by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that his troops had finally pushed the Ukrainians out of the last built-up area inside the city would amount to claiming Moscow's first big prize for more than 10 months.

 

[Chadstroma]

Saw

Looks like Bakhmut may have finally fallen. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hmut-kyiv-says-situation-critical-2023-05-20/

May 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Wagner private army claimed on Saturday to have finally captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, while Kyiv denied the city had fallen though it called the situation there critical.

If confirmed, the announcement by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that his troops had finally pushed the Ukrainians out of the last built-up area inside the city would amount to claiming Moscow's first big prize for more than 10 months.

I seem to remember the Russians claiming that before.
With reports that the Ukrainians a few days ago were making progress along the flanks outside of Bakhmut wouldn't it be perfect for them to draw in more Russian units into Bakhmut then encircle it and destroy the cut off units wholesale? I have no idea if that is the plan or feasible but the Ukainians seem to be steps ahead of the Russians constantly since this began with the Russians continued reliance on numerical superiority and heavy artillery. I wouldn't say that that isn't a possibility for the Ukrainians. Then again, they may have just continued to be ground down to the point that defending really doesn't make any sense in a strategically unimportant location. At this point, it seems more valuable to draw Russian forces in and grind the Russians down as they continue to go on the offense for a symbolic victory.

 

[top dog]

Saw

Looks like Bakhmut may have finally fallen. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hmut-kyiv-says-situation-critical-2023-05-20/

May 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Wagner private army claimed on Saturday to have finally captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, while Kyiv denied the city had fallen though it called the situation there critical.

If confirmed, the announcement by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that his troops had finally pushed the Ukrainians out of the last built-up area inside the city would amount to claiming Moscow's first big prize for more than 10 months.

I seem to remember the Russians claiming that before.
With reports that the Ukrainians a few days ago were making progress along the flanks outside of Bakhmut wouldn't it be perfect for them to draw in more Russian units into Bakhmut then encircle it and destroy the cut off units wholesale? I have no idea if that is the plan or feasible but the Ukainians seem to be steps ahead of the Russians constantly since this began with the Russians continued reliance on numerical superiority and heavy artillery. I wouldn't say that that isn't a possibility for the Ukrainians. Then again, they may have just continued to be ground down to the point that defending really doesn't make any sense in a strategically unimportant location. At this point, it seems more valuable to draw Russian forces in and grind the Russians down as they continue to go on the offense for a symbolic victory.

Definitely feels like a trap. They have been very strategic with Bakhmut where Russia has just thrown everything at it to get "a win".

 

[themeistersinger]

According to sources, last rear-guard units of the armed forces have left the city of Bakhmut. Wether it was deliberate to hold on till the end here and attack the flanks, or something that just turned out that way we will probably just learn after the war. However the Heroïsm of the troops defending Bakhmut is already LEGENDARY, and on a good note: new gains are being made in the direction of Soledar as we speak!

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1659863843135275008?cxt=HHwWgIC-md_XgokuAAAA

 

[Chadstroma]

Saw

Looks like Bakhmut may have finally fallen. https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hmut-kyiv-says-situation-critical-2023-05-20/

May 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Wagner private army claimed on Saturday to have finally captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut after the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, while Kyiv denied the city had fallen though it called the situation there critical.

If confirmed, the announcement by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that his troops had finally pushed the Ukrainians out of the last built-up area inside the city would amount to claiming Moscow's first big prize for more than 10 months.

I seem to remember the Russians claiming that before.
With reports that the Ukrainians a few days ago were making progress along the flanks outside of Bakhmut wouldn't it be perfect for them to draw in more Russian units into Bakhmut then encircle it and destroy the cut off units wholesale? I have no idea if that is the plan or feasible but the Ukainians seem to be steps ahead of the Russians constantly since this began with the Russians continued reliance on numerical superiority and heavy artillery. I wouldn't say that that isn't a possibility for the Ukrainians. Then again, they may have just continued to be ground down to the point that defending really doesn't make any sense in a strategically unimportant location. At this point, it seems more valuable to draw Russian forces in and grind the Russians down as they continue to go on the offense for a symbolic victory.

Definitely feels like a trap. They have been very strategic with Bakhmut where Russia has just thrown everything at it to get "a win".

The Ukrainians spent men and material there too but the Russians losses are estimated to be double + that of the Ukrainians. Is it worth it? I don't know. Apparently Western advisors did not want the Ukrainians to spend the resources defending it. However, if the Ukrainians are drawing them in to then push harder on the flanks and trap them there.... gawd... that would be brilliant and be not only a massive military victory but it would take whatever symbolic victory the Russians get from finally capturing Bakhmut and turning it into a huge symbolic one for the Ukrainians. I hope that that is what is happening. But over all, I hope that this continues to draw in Russians from other parts of their lines so the Ukrainian main counter offensive can break through and achieve an even larger strategic goal (whatever it is they choose).

 

[Orange&Blue]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.

Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.

A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.

While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.

I am not sure how many more other than the Dutch will be willing to part with their F-16's. The Dutch have 26 F-35's in service (18 more to come) as well as the 24 F-16's. I looked to see what block they were but could not find the info from my search but it may be a mix of A/B and C/D, with the A/B likely to have been upgraded during service, as I did see that they began to take delivery in 1979 (A block) and ended in 1992 (C or D).

If transferred to the Ukrainians, it will be interesting to see their use and survivability. Without question, they are more capable than Mig-29's and Su-27's that make up the Ukrainian multi role force. Since the lines have stabilized the Ukrainians have kept their Mig's and Sukhoi's out of danger of Russian anti-air batteries, much like the Russians have kept their air power from Ukrainian (until a couple of days ago).

Netherlands have 24 block 20s. 26 delivered f-35s with more on order.

belgian air force has 44 f-16a, but with no f-35s yet i doubt they offer up very many. maybe on a 1-1 basis.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia adapted to the game-changing HIMARS, but Ukraine's new Storm Shadow missiles could put the fear back into its commanders, warfare experts say

First I have heard of this. Love UK's leadership in backing Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in Bakhmut City on May 20 and announced his intent to withdraw from the city on May 25. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner Group forces completely captured Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last

www.understandingwar.org

Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if Wagner mercenaries remain in Bakhmut. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to transfer airborne, motorized rifle, and special forces elements to reinforce the Bakhmut flanks even as Wagner forces remain in Bakhmut City.[6] The UK MoD also reported that the Russian military command likely redeployed several battalions in the last few days to reinforce Bakhmut despite only having few uncommitted combat units and that this redeployment suggests a substantial commitment to the Bakhmut effort by the Russian leadership.[7] These additional forces could in principle be meant to participate in the relief-in-place of Wagner forces that Prigozhin has just announced, reducing but not eliminating some of the challenges considered above, but it is more likely that they are intended to secure Bakhmut’s threatened flanks.

Ukraine war latest: Moscow has captured '99.9% of geographic boundaries' of Bakhmut; Zelenskyy gives 'flat assurance' F-16 jets won't be used to go into Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that although he cannot "share tactical views" of the Ukrainian military, Bakhmut is not occupied by Russia - disputing claims by Vladimir Putin that the key city has fallen. The Ukrainian president was speaking on the final day of the G7 summit in Japan.

news.sky.com

Biden says he has 'flat assurance' that Ukraine won't use F-16s to go into Russia​

Addressing the media at the end of the G7 summit in Hiroshima today, Joe Biden said he had received a "flat assurance" from Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine's troops would not use Western-provided F-16 fighter jets to go into Russian territory.
Mr Biden told reporters that F-16 warplanes could, however, be used "wherever Russian troops are within Ukraine and the area".
It comes after the US on Friday authorised Western allies to give F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - and endorsed the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly the warplanes.
The move by Mr Biden was welcomed by the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark.

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

Russian electronic warfare (EW) remains potent, with an approximate distribution of at least one major system covering each 10 km of front. These systems are heavily weighted towards the defeat of UAVs and tend not to try and deconflict their effects. Ukrainian UAV losses remain at approximately 10,000 per month. Russian EW is also apparently achieving real time interception and decryption of Ukrainian Motorola 256-bit encrypted tactical communications systems, which are widely employed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian engineering has proven to be one of the stronger branches of the Russian military. Russian engineers have been constructing complex obstacles and field fortifications across the front. This includes concrete reinforced trenches and command bunkers, wire-entanglements, hedgehogs, anti-tank ditches, and complex minefields. Russian mine laying is extensive and mixes anti-tank and victim-initiated anti-personnel mines, the latter frequently being laid with multiple initiation mechanisms to complicate breaching. These defences pose a major tactical challenge to Ukrainian offensive operations.

One important development is that the Russians have made several modifications to their tanks that are reducing the effectiveness of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). First, they are fitting vehicles – as well as many defensive positions – with anti-thermal material,46 which is proving highly effective. Second, modification to the engine deck and thus the heat plume from the vehicle’s exhaust and engine is reducing the reliability of where certain ATGMs engage the target. Third, by fighting at dusk and dawn when the vehicle temperature is most similar to the ambient temperature of the surroundings (known as ‘thermal crossover’), the vehicles are harder to detect through thermal imagery.47 The result is a significant decrease in the probability of kill from several ATGM types, although this is only achievable by imposing a range of tactical constraints on the employment of Russian armour

That's a 37 page report, so won't quote the full thing. But RUSI interviewed a bunch of Ukrainian officers for that report. Good read if you have time.

This is essentially a summary of that report: https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/21/russias-army-is-learning-on-the-battlefield

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1660021128167841794?cxt=HHwWhICzgfiayokuAAAA

SZ doesn’t believe the EU can get Ukraine in a year the 1 Million artillery shells it promised: arsenals are empty and the French veto to buy outside Europe makes this difficult.

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine, Bakhmut latest

Ukraine says it's still holding on to a small part of Bakhmut, a day after the Wagner Group and Moscow officials claimed they had completely seized it. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Ukraine's military does not control much of the eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukraine's army commander said Sunday, but its units are holding on to positions surrounding the city.

“Despite the fact that we now control an insignificant part of Bakhmut, the importance of its defense remains. It gives us the opportunity to enter the city in case the situation changes, and this will certainly happen,” Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, said in a statement shared by Ukraine's military media center.

Syrskyi said his troops have been advancing along the city’s flanks and are now approaching the “tactical encirclement” of Bakhmut. “This will allow us to control all high-rise buildings occupied by the enemy and gradually destroy them,” he said.

“We are continuing our defense. The situation is difficult but under control,” Syrskyi continued.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1660326570026844161?cxt=HHwWgoC-mf-N1YouAAAA

Ukraine assassinated Russian propagandists, admits intelligence chief

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service has admitted that several Kremlin propagandists have been assassinated in the 15 months since Russia invaded.He also said that Kyiv aimed to establish a demilitarised border zone up to 60 miles inside Russia to deter any future attacks; comments th

www.thetimes.co.uk

He also said that Kyiv aimed to establish a demilitarised border zone up to 60 miles inside Russia to deter any future attacks; comments that will stoke fears of escalation in the war.
“We’ve already successfully targeted quite a few people. There have been well-publicised cases everyone knows about, thanks to the media coverage,” Major-General Kyrylo Budanov, 37, said when asked whether Ukrainian security services had killed Russian propagandists.

This air battle may decide who wins the Russia-Ukraine war

The much-heralded Ukrainian offensive cannot be far away. The Russians will know it has started when Ukraine’s heavy metal — its armoured and mechanised briga

www.thetimes.co.uk

A cat-and-mouse game​

In the invasion of Normandy in 1944 allied air superiority was critical to success and obvious to everyone. The sky was full of allied aircraft and the Luftwaffe hardly made an appearance.
Air superiority in the 21st century is every bit as important, but more ephemeral. There are far fewer aircraft and they operate mainly away from the front lines. There are satellites, missiles, air defence batteries, electronic waves, jammers, scammers, decoys and drones.
It is a battle-within-a-battle in which both sides are simultaneously attacking and defending as they play cat and mouse for the right to control the airspace above their tanks and troops and the vital supply lines that keep them going.
The airspace below 5,000ft has become dense drone-war territory. Some drones as big as an aircraft compete with others as small as a hand as they strike, listen, watch, sniff, receive, decoy, broadcast and film. The potential prize is total battle management.

Probing behind the front lines​

Russia and Ukraine have upped their long-range missile attacks, probing for high-value targets far behind the front lines in anticipation of the fighting to come. Only a day after Britain announced it had given Storm Shadow long-range missiles to Kyiv, two were in operation against rear-area targets in Luhansk. And they appear to have worked in harness with America’s miniature air-launched decoy (MALD) — a missile that can make itself look like several different aircraft or a flight of other missiles as it jams and scams a route to the target for a Storm Shadow flying far below it. Commanders in Moscow claim to be unconcerned by Storm Shadow’s range and penetration, but they must be worried.
The air-launched Storm Shadow does the same job as America’s ground-launched army tactical missile system . Ukraine has long requested it, but Washington continues to withhold the system. One key question for Ukraine is therefore how many Storm Shadows is it getting? Britain’s inventory is thought to be 700 to 1,000. Kyiv will probably need several hundred from this stock — perhaps all of it, or more from the French — before its offensive is concluded.

Russia strikes back​

Russia has not been without success in targeting Ukrainian supply lines. Two days after Storm Shadow went into action, a Russian strike on Khmelnytskyi, just on the Ukrainian side of the Polish border, appeared to hit a big arms cache — almost certainly valuable western equipment and ammunition — on its way into the country.
And while both sides keep probing for key nodes in the opposition’s supply lines, they are playing the SEAD game — the battle for the suppression of enemy air defences. Only complete dominance can normally achieve the actual destruction of an opposition’s air defence system, so they settle for its “suppression” — disrupting bits of it long enough to let the drones, missiles and bombers through to their targets.

Cloak and dagger​

A lot of bluff is involved. When a surface-to-air missile battery — a defensive SAM site — turns on its radars, it reveals its location and is then liable to be targeted itself. Russian Su-34 aircraft are flying from Crimea carrying Kh-31 antiradiation missiles, designed to detect SAM radar emissions and attack the sites. They do not yet intend to risk flying far enough into Ukrainian territory to do so. But they know that SAM sites detect their own Kh-31 emissions and are deterred from switching on their radars until it is worth the risk. They play a game: trying to keep the SAM radars off to create defensive gaps, then later to provoke them into turning them on to make them easier to attack.
Russian air defence sites in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhya areas are less elusive than Ukrainian sites have learnt to be, and US-supplied AGM-88 HARM antiradiation missiles have proved effective once Ukrainian intelligence locates them.

Ukraine’s Patriot defence​

The potential game-changer for Ukraine in this abstruse contest is the Patriot air defence system. Ukraine has just begun to operate two batteries — eight launchers in each — supplied by America and Germany. Patriot can hit more or less anything, even ballistic missiles, and is being credited with bringing down Russia’s Kinzhal quasi-hypersonic missiles that President Putin boasted were impossible to stop. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin is making a big effort to target Ukraine’s Patriot batteries, so far without much success. Patriot is not small and not mobile. Its most vulnerable element is its phased-array radar. But it is so good at defending itself. It will take a big Russian effort to disable a couple of batteries, and more Patriots will be on the way. Ironically, the easiest missile for a Patriot to engage is the one trying to target the battery itself because at some point it has to fly straight at it.

A question of supplies​

Russia’s best tactics in the SEAD battle, since the start of this month, appear to be to try to overwhelm Ukrainian defences with sheer numbers and run their defensive missile stocks down to the point where gaps will begin to appear. Moscow conducted 15 waves of drone and missile assaults on Ukrainian territory after October 10 last year, roughly every two weeks, each attack lasting a few hours overnight. But on May 1 it began a 16th iteration with bombardments on a 48-hour cycle that has delivered ten heavy attacks in 21 days.
Ukrainian defences have done very well so far against this latest onslaught, with interception rates of well over 90 per cent. Moscow’s Iranian Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones” have featured heavily. They are comparatively easy to jam and shoot down. But they are also cheap. The Russians have lots of them and seem to be using them in high numbers mainly to exhaust Kyiv’s ammunition, or to create a brief hole in Ukraine’s layered defence.
In response, the Ukrainians have been both effective and lucky. They will need to be for some time to come. Missile usage rates within their myriad air defence systems — from Soviet S-300s and Buk-M1s, to German Iris-Ts and American Nasams (national advanced surface-to-air missile systems), Hawks and Patriots — will not, by all accounts, take them much beyond September on present stocks. Of course, Moscow’s missile and drone supplies are also not unlimited — which is why Putin is increasingly dependent on help from Iran and North Korea — so both Moscow and Kyiv are having to weigh up how many chips they throw into the SEAD game before the main event begins on the ground.

America’s F-16 jets may play a role​

When it does, some old-fashioned realities that our grandfathers might recognise will begin to reappear. Russia’s air force, the VKS, has failed to provide its ground troops with consistent close air support. It is the most dangerous thing air forces do, and they hate it. So their aircraft “stand off” and throw weapons from a distance. And the Russians have improvised a very effective weapon in the UPAB-1500B “glide bomb”. It is a big, cheap, “dumb bomb” of which they have many, that is now fitted with wings and a basic guidance system so that it can glide up to 40km after being dropped from an aircraft. It is playing havoc with Ukrainian lines in the Donbas.
Kyiv can only neutralise this threat with fighter aircraft of its own. But new Russian fighters have longer-range air-to-air missiles than Ukraine’s old Soviet models, so Moscow can operate more effective combat air patrols over the battlefields once it chooses to run the risk of flying over them.
As President Zelensky must have grown tired of saying, Ukraine needs western fighters now, in the coming battle, before Russian glide bombs can blunt his heavy metal once it starts moving.
President Biden has indicated that he will now — finally — allow the transfer of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Of course, it is far too late to protect the onset of the ground offensive. But the air battle will evolve with it. Decisions taken now could still have a big effect on Ukraine’s chances of success in the autumn.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian Border Region Says Ukrainian 'Sabotage' Unit Carried Out Incursion - The Moscow Times

The head of Russia’s Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, claimed Monday that a Ukrainian "sabotage group" had infiltrated the region, while anti-Kremlin Russians fighting alongside Ukraine's forces appeared to take responsibility. “A VSU [armed forces of Ukraine] sabotage group entered the...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine’s Looming Offensive: Battle of the Bulge Redux?

Will Ukraine catch the Russians off guard and successfully drive Putin’s forces backward, or will their attack end in failure?

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[beer 30]

Ukraine’s Looming Offensive: Battle of the Bulge Redux?

Will Ukraine catch the Russians off guard and successfully drive Putin’s forces backward, or will their attack end in failure?

www.19fortyfive.com

I realize this is the Ukraine rah rah thread but I read a fair amount of stuff this weekend about this offensive and I'm skeptical it happens. Wagner expended a **** ton of resources to take Bakhmut but it also bled the Ukrainians pretty hard. The Russian regulars now move into that area without taking any loss and Wagner runs off to someplace in Africa I think. Ukraine has to figure out how to replace the losses they suffered. Be interesting to see how they spin it going forward.

 

[Redwes25]

Ukraine’s Looming Offensive: Battle of the Bulge Redux?

Will Ukraine catch the Russians off guard and successfully drive Putin’s forces backward, or will their attack end in failure?

www.19fortyfive.com

I realize this is the Ukraine rah rah thread but I read a fair amount of stuff this weekend about this offensive and I'm skeptical it happens. Wagner expended a **** ton of resources to take Bakhmut but it also bled the Ukrainians pretty hard. The Russian regulars now move into that area without taking any loss and Wagner runs off to someplace in Africa I think. Ukraine has to figure out how to replace the losses they suffered. Be interesting to see how they spin it going forward.

I honestly don't know if they wil be successful but think this Belograd thing plays into a bit. Try to force Russia to spread out its troops and defends its border against raids, etc. to make Russian lines weaker in Ukraine. Who knows how it will play out but I don't think we are going to see a lot of these type of actions and continued fighting near Bahkmut before we see the real Ukrainian thrust somewhere along the front.

 

[Orange&Blue]

are the nukes in belograd a real story? if Ukraine got their hands on those.....

 

[themeistersinger]

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89815

 

[themeistersinger]

In the least surprising news of the day, Wagner's Prigozhin has used the incursions into Russia to once again blast the Russian Ministry of Defence and army leadership as incompetent buffoons.

My quick translation below (cc @wartranslated)

Romanov Лайт ]ࣩࣩࣩࣩ࣯ࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩ

22.05.2023 Глава ЧВК «Вагнер» Евгений Викторович Пригожин прокомментировал ситуацию в Белгородской области. @romanov_92

t.me

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1660672128734097410?cxt=HHwWhMCzmZSg8osuAAAA

 

[themeistersinger]

Institute for the Study of War

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR

www.understandingwar.org

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5] Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7]