*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

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Ukrainian intelligence confirms destruction of 4 Russian aircraft in Pskov

Four Russian Il-76 aircraft were destroyed at a military airfield in the Russian city of Pskov overnight on Aug. 30, Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Military Intelligence, has confirmed to online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1696926778017693982

Bad week for Ukrainian pilots. Six pilots of the 18th Army Aviation Brigade were killed near Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military said. Circumstances not disclosed.

Yesterday: https://twitter.com/sasha_weirdsley/status/1696491431802576982

#otd 2014 putin announced a 'humanitarian corridor for trapped Ukrainian soldiers' to leave the besieged city of Ilovaisk. Then ru troops opened fire at the column, killing 366, wounding 429, capturing 300 fighters. I wonder why aren't into deals with ru since then.

Good piece by Mick Ryan here:

How Ukraine Can Win a Long War

The West needs a strategy for after the counteroffensive.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Milburn provides some clarity on the state of affairs in a recent post:

Has the Offensive Reached its Culminating Point?

US Intelligence reports are not optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects for success – but the outlook might not be as gloomy as it seems

amilburn.substack.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1696935014338793718

NSC’s John Kirby: we have new information, which we're able to share today, that arms negotiations between Russia& the DPRK are actively advancing. Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu recently traveled to the DPRK to try to convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia. Since that visit, Pres. Putin & the leader of the DPRK Kim Jong Un have exchanged letters, pledging to increase their bilateral cooperation. Our information further indicates that following Shoygu’s visit, another group of Russian officials traveled to Pyongyang for follow on discussions about potential arms deals between the DPRK and Russia. Following these negotiations, high level discussions may continue in coming months. Now, under these potential deals, Russia would receive significant quantities & multiple types of munitions from the DPRK, which the Russian military plans to use in Ukraine. These potential deals could also include the provision of raw materials that would assist Russia's defense industrial base… An arms deal between the DPRK & Russia would directly violate a number of UN Security Council resolutions. We're continuing to monitor this situation closely. And we urge the DPRK to cease its arms negotiations with Russia and abide by the public commitments that Pyongyang has made to not provide or sell arms to Russia...

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1696919456159801667

Russian repair crews are still working on the Crimean Bridge after Ukraine struck the site in July.

A structure for construction equipment and new barriers to guard against naval drones are visible in the latest imagery.

Some video of the attacks today on Kyiv: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1696882327740117294

Russian air defense systems 'very slow to catch on to threat' of drones – DW – 08/30/2023

p.dw.com

DW spoke with David Hambling, a military technology writer and consultant specializing in defense technology, about the impact of the drone attacks and what this could signify in terms of future actions by Ukraine.

He said that the latest drone strikes on Russian territory show a "massive asymmetric advantage" for Ukraine — as the drones used were relatively cheap compared to the Russian military aircraft that was heavily damaged.

Hambling added that Russia's air defense systems have not yet been adapted to address the threat posed by drone attacks.

"They have no defense plan to cope with drones. They have very advanced air defense system, but it's built to deal with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, high speed aircraft — it's not designed to deal with small, slow moving objects," he said.

Despite similar attacks on Russian air bases in 2018 by suspected Syrian rebels, Russia has not yet adapted its air defense systems to deal with these types of attacks, Hambling said, adding, "they've really seemed quite incapable of learning."

"Russia may have problems with training, with competence or with policy. But certainly their air defenses seem to be very slow to catch on to the threat here."

Ukraine war latest: Lavrov 'ready' to meet Rubio after reported breakdown in communication and rift with Putin

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says he is ready to meet US secretary of state Marco Rubio amid reports that he was responsible for a summit being cancelled. The US was said to be put off by Lavrov, leading to reports of a rift between him and Vladimir Putin.

news.sky.com

Countries across Europe have been urged to order more ammunition for Ukraine by the European Union's foreign policy chief.

Figures have shown the bloc is a long way from its agreed March target of supplying Kyiv with a million artillery shells or missiles within a year.

The first element of the deal involved countries digging into their reserves or buying stock from elsewhere, but Josep Borrell said only 224,000 ammunition rounds and 2,300 missiles had been yielded - not even a quarter of the set target.

Video here of ex British army officer Angus Benson-Blair discussing the impact of drone technology on modern warfare: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=6362965#liveblog-body

Some video of an interview on the status of the counteroffensive: https://www.france24.com/en/video/2...ern-front-amid-growing-pressure-from-the-west

Some drone video from the 59th Brigade: https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1696908893052354678

Video of a Ukrainian kamikaze drone attack on a Russian truck: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1696837727520469171

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1695768808789536892

From Rogozin's Tsar's Wolves effort: the video claims that its "Shturm" quadcopter uses AI to drop bombs on a target after an operator identifies and designates such targets. Similar claims were also made by other quadcopter assembly efforts.

They are a pro-Russian militia.

Drone warfare features in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It is changing warfare in five ways

That is a good read from Mick Ryan. Perhaps was posted already.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1696933079904829847

The new Ukrainian Gekata (Reconnaissance UAV) radio-technical intelligence complex with a target detection range of up to 450 km should be tested and appear on the battlefield by the end of this year.

The aviation complex of radio technical intelligence Gekata, integrated into the unmanned complex PD-2 from another Ukrainian company "Ukrspetssistemz", should provide the Defense Forces with new opportunities in the field of intelligence.

Gekata is capable of passively detecting a variety of radio signals, including signals from enemy radar systems and electronic warfare stations. The system allows simultaneous tracking of up to 200 moving targets in a 360-degree circle.

 

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Ukrainian intelligence confirms destruction of 4 Russian aircraft in Pskov

Four Russian Il-76 aircraft were destroyed at a military airfield in the Russian city of Pskov overnight on Aug. 30, Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Military Intelligence, has confirmed to online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda.

kyivindependent.com

2 Russian Planes Damaged in Ukraine Drone Strikes – RFE/RL - The Moscow Times

At least two Russian military aircraft were damaged as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes on an airbase in northwestern Russia, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) investigative project Skhemy reported Thursday, citing satellite imagery.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Not as optimistic as the Ukrainian's evaluation, but knocking out 2 planes is still a big win

 

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Wagner Commander Utkin Buried in Moscow Cemetery After Plane Crash Death - The Moscow Times

The deceased commander and purported co-founder of the Wagner mercenary group has been buried at a Moscow cemetery, the MSK.1 news website reported Thursday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

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Lithuanian foreign minister urges EU to drop the phrase 'supporting Ukraine as long as it takes'

European countries should stop saying that they will "support Ukraine for as long as it takes" and plan for a Ukrainian victory, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Aug. 31.

kyivindependent.com

 

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The origins of 'Slava Ukraini'

In early March 2023, a video surfaced online showing the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war. The unarmed soldier’s last words were “Slava Ukraini” – a Ukrainian national salute that means “Glory to Ukraine” – before he was shot multiple times and collapsed to his death. Ukrainian...

kyivindependent.com

 

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Stoltenberg: 'Ukrainians exceed expectations again and again'

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN on Aug. 30 that it is "even more important" to support Ukraine as its forces push through heavily defended Russian-occupied territory.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some combat footage reportedly from southern Bakhmut: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1697282777798807787

This says Ukraine has multiple drone models in development with a range of more than 1000 km.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1697252355295903801

The Security Service of Ukraine showed footage of a test of "cardboard" kamikaze drones, which were used to attack the Khalino airbase in the Kursk region on the night of August 27.

The video shows that the drone contains a small warhead, but it has a large amount of small shrapnel that quite densely covers an area of several square meters.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1697258723880968383

^That is going to take multiple years.

What do we know about drone attacks in Russia?

There have been drone attacks on six regions in Russia, the most widespread in a single day in 2023.

www.bbc.com

BBC Verify has been monitoring reports of drone strikes in Russian media since the start of 2023.

According to these, there have more than 190 suspected attacks this year in Russia and in Russian-annexed Crimea.

The overnight attacks on 30 August are the most widespread we have monitored in one day since the start of the year, with drones hitting at least six regions in Russia from the south to the north-west.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated that

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30. Geolocated footage published on August 30 shows Ukrainian infantry on the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, indicating that Russian control over the outskirts of the settlement is degraded.[15] The footage, however, does not indicate that Ukrainian forces established control over the area at this time, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have not yet breached the defensive line around Verbove.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were successful in the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (4-15km south of Orikhiv) and Mala Tokmachka-Verbove (7-18km southeast of Orikhiv) directions.[17] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations south of Bakhmut, and geolocated footage published on August 28 shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced south of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[18] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in the direction of Volodyne (13km south of Velyka Novosilka) on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border and that Russian forces had to retreat from several heights in the area.[19]

 

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WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian Counteroffensive Pierces Main Russian Defensive Line in Southeast

After three months of grinding advances in its Western-backed counteroffensive, Kyiv has accelerated its thrust along its main line of attack.

www.wsj.com

Ukrainian forces have penetrated the main Russian defensive line in their country’s southeast, raising hopes of a breakthrough that would reinvigorate the slow-moving counteroffensive.
Ukrainian paratroopers are fighting through entrenched Russian positions on the edge of the village of Verbove, a Ukrainian officer in the area said. Ukrainian forces have also reached the main defensive line to the south of nearby Robotyne village, he said. Ukraine’s military confirmed advances toward Verbove and south of Robotyne, without giving details.
Describing the advance, the Ukrainian officer held up three fingers representing lines of attack through entrenched Russian positions on the western flank of Verbove, an agricultural village of some 1,000 residents before the war. The significance of the advance is that it marks the first time Ukraine has penetrated the main Russian defensive line, an extensive system of minefields, trenches and antitank obstacles covered by artillery.
Ukrainian forces are now working to expand the cracks in the line to create a hole large enough for Western-provided armored vehicles to push through with sufficient logistical support.
“It’s like inflating a ball,” the officer said.
Ukrainian advances in recent days have led to cautious optimism among Western intelligence services that Ukraine can retake the occupied city of Tokmak, a logistical hub for Russia, according to senior Western intelligence officials.
To be sure, there are still serious obstacles to turning the current penetration into a full-fledged breach. Russia is targeting Ukrainian troops there with heavy artillery fire directed by aerial drones, and there is no sign of a collapse in Russian lines. Russia appears to be sending reinforcements, including paratroopers, to help hold their positions.

But progress accelerated in August. Accurate counter-battery fire helped suppress Russian artillery. Infantry advances seized trenches and lines of trees along the edges of farm fields. Ukrainian troops took the village of Robotyne and pushed south toward Tokmak.
Ukraine deployed fresh troops, including powerful airborne units like the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, equipped with Western-made Stryker armored fighting vehicles. In recent days, Ukrainian forces fought their way into the outskirts of Verbove, posing what now appears to be the biggest threat to Russian lines.
The advance is facing fierce resistance. The Ukrainian officer said the Russians were so well dug in that his men found carpets and pictures hung on the walls of dugouts that they captured. They are facing elite Russian forces, including the 7th Guards Air Assault Division.
Russia is targeting Ukrainian troops and vehicles using heavy artillery fire guided by aerial drones and explosive drones directed from the ground by pilots wearing video goggles. In some places, there are so many drones flying that the Ukrainians call the phenomenon “Boryspil,” after the country’s main international airport in Kyiv.
U.S.-supplied cluster bombs are having a significant impact, soldiers said. Ukrainians on the offensive are using the munitions—which release dozens of smaller bomblets and can cause devastation over a broader area than ordinary artillery shells—to target Russian troops running across open ground, either to flee or to provide reinforcements.

A breach at Verbove could open a path to the Russian-occupied port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol, while progress south of Robotyne could threaten Tokmak. Still, Russia has significant fortifications in the southeast, including a second thick defensive line.
For now, the Ukrainians must resupply front-line troops on foot or, at best, using motorcycles, all-terrain buggies or pickup trucks, rather than Western-supplied armored vehicles, which attract massive fire as soon as they appear on the battlefield.
“Western armored vehicles are not a panacea,” the officer said.

 

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Ukraine Takes the Next Step in Its Hard-Fought Counteroffensive

After breaking through the first major line of Russian defenses around Robotyne, Ukraine appears to hold it securely enough to press on to the nearby village of Verbove.

www.nytimes.com

After penetrating a major line of Russian defenses around the southern village of Robotyne, Ukrainian forces are now engaged in a fierce battle a few miles farther to the east as they seek to take the next step of a hard-fought counteroffensive, according to Ukrainian military commanders and Western military analysts.
The Ukrainian 46th Brigade, which is taking part in the fighting in the area, said that its assault units were attacking Russian positions near the village of Verbove, nine miles east of Robotyne.
Weeks of brutal fighting have resulted in small but significant advances that Ukrainian forces are trying to exploit. The move toward Verbove is notable because it shows that Ukraine feels it holds Robotyne securely enough to try to press forward.
While Western analysts believe that Ukraine has broken through a first line of defense in Robotyne, they note that several other defensive lines converge around Verbove.
Ukrainian military officials have warned not to expect rapid progress and troops are fighting hard for every bit of ground retaken. There are still miles of formidable Russian defenses — including mines, tank traps, fortified trenches, concrete pill boxes and sniper nests — ahead as Ukrainian troops seek to push south and drive a wedge between Russia and occupied Crimea.
On Thursday, the brigade said its forces had reached the western part of Verbove, though it underlined that there were much more difficult fights ahead.
“The battles will be for heights further south and southwest,” the brigade said. The brigade cautioned against “hype” since even if they punch through the next defensive line, Russia has more ahead.
At the same time, they also have to defend against Russian efforts to drive them back again.
“Russia is constantly counterattacking, conducting an active defense,” it said, adding that “our month of battles has shown that the enemy is not going to give up the captured lands — there is a lot of work ahead.”
If Ukraine can hold the ground it has recently reclaimed, its forces are in position to apply pressure on Russian supply routes running through the city of Tokmak, about 15 miles to the south.
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, offered an example of the difficulty of the battle during a meeting of diplomats in France on Wednesday. After spending more than two months engaged in a grueling campaign to break the Russian lines around Robotyne, the fighting capability of the units was exhausted, he said.
The local commander asked for permission to restructure the attack force there, choosing 31 soldiers considered to be deeply motivated. A third of them had no combat experience, he said.
Over the course of 40 days, he said, this unit conducted six assaults and two reconnaissance missions. Seven of the soldiers were wounded, he said, including one who stepped on a mine.
“The work of this group made it possible for an entire brigade to attack Robotyne and liberate it after weeks of assaults,” he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

GRU hacking tools targeting Ukrainian military devices detailed by Five Eyes

The U.K.'s National Cyber Security Centre and allied agencies issued a technical report detailing "Infamous Chisel," a set of hacking tools that Russia is using against Ukrainian military tablet computers.

therecord.media

Western intelligence and cybersecurity agencies published a report on Thursday highlighting a collection of hacking tools being used by Russia’s military intelligence service against Android devices operated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The report, published by Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) — alongside agencies in the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, who form the Five Eyes intelligence alliance — names the malware “Infamous Chisel.”

It details how the malware enables the GRU to acquire unauthorized access to compromised devices before scanning files, monitoring traffic and periodically stealing sensitive information.

“Infamous Chisel is a collection of components which enable persistent access to an infected Android device over the Tor network, and which periodically collates and exfiltrates victim information from compromised devices,” explains the report, referencing the technology that anonymizes internet traffic.

Putin Moves to Seize Control of Wagner’s Mercenary Empire

With the Wagner leader dead, Russia’s Defense Ministry is asserting control over his operations in the Middle East and Africa.

www.bloomberg.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin is moving swiftly to take control of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprawling operations in Africa and the Middle East, days after his renegade ex-protege died in a mysterious plane crash.
A Defense Ministry-affiliated armed contractor is poised to assume charge of Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic, said a person close to the Defense Ministry and two others close to the private military firm, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
All of Wagner’s covert overseas network is due to fall under effective Russian military command, according to a person close to the Kremlin and another person close to the Defense Ministry, ending a setup that gave Putin a veil of deniability but allowed Prigozhin to build enough independence to lead an audacious mutiny in June.

Once a close ally who carried out Putin’s dirty work on foreign soil, Prigozhin led a mutiny in June that amounted to the biggest challenge to his almost 25-year grip on power. While the president denounced the rebellion as “treason,” a few days later he met Prigozhin and Wagner commanders and promised to let the group keep at least some of its African operations, according to people familiar with the matter.
Prigozhin had deployed tens of thousands of recruits to fight in Ukraine. He blamed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for Russia’s failures there and accused them of trying to wrest control of his organization. His mutiny was aimed at ousting the two men. Putin has so far stood by them.
Despite Putin’s apparent reassurances, Wagner had faced increased pressure from the Defense Ministry in the weeks before Prigozhin’s death, the person close to the Kremlin said. Wagner was barred from using Russian military transport planes and the Kremlin had asked Syria to stop the organization from using the Khmeimim airbase near Latakia, the person said. That would have made logistics difficult for Wagner and the person said Prigozhin had made what turned out to be his final trip to Moscow to try to iron out those problems.
While Prigozhin was releasing a Wagner recruitment video from Africa in the days before the fateful crash, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov was visiting Syria and Libya to negotiate the planned transition of Wagner operations to Defense Ministry control, according to the person and Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close Kremlin ties. Yevkurov made a third trip to Syria after the crash, Markov added.

“It’s clear we will maintain things as they are and perhaps even expand our presence,” said Markov. “The Defense Ministry will now be in charge but there will be a new head of these operations who will have to run their business activities too.”
In Libya, Yevkurov’s visit a day before Prigozhin’s death marked the first official Russian military delegation to travel to the North African country, according to the Defense Ministry’s Zvezda TV. Yevkurov told eastern military chief Khalifa Haftar that Wagner forces who had supported his push for power in recent years would report to a new commander, Arab Weekly reported, citing a Libyan official with knowledge of the meeting.
A spokesman for Haftar’s Libyan National Army didn’t respond to questions about Wagner’s future in the country. The Syrian Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Yevkurov’s visit “suggests that – if anything – the Russian footprint in Libya might deepen and expand rather than shrink,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.
Wagner has a force of about 2,000 fighters in Libya, where it has responsibility for protecting major energy facilities under the control of Haftar, giving it leverage in an OPEC member that’s home to 40% of Africa’s oil reserves. The US has pressed unsuccessfully for Haftar to expel the Russian contractors.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Wise thread from Mark Hertling here: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1697266398282592458

Thread by @MarkHertling on Thread Reader App

@MarkHertling: After boneheaded comments by 'anonymous sources' & commentary by mostly uninformed who have never seen combat, there's been increasing back-and-forth about how @NATO shouldn't "lecture" Ukraine's army...…

threadreaderapp.com

I think some perhaps blew some things out of proportion.

Few Russians wanted the war in Ukraine – but they won’t accept a Russian defeat either | Anatol Lieven

Many fear that if Ukraine wins, Vladimir Putin would be ousted, unleashing chaos and ushering in a terrifying new era, says author Anatol Lieven

www.theguardian.com

Most western commentary on the assassination has focused on the fear of Putin that Prigozhin’s death will cause among the Russian elites, or on the underlying fragility it reveals in the Russian regime.

This is not wholly wrong, but it misses several longstanding fears that are widespread within the Russian establishment – and indeed in the wider Russian population – that will influence how events play out: fear of defeat, chaos and of each other. What really worried most members of the elite was Putin’s failure to act much earlier to end the public feud between Prigozhin and the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and that Prigozhin’s armed demonstration risked a catastrophic internal split in Russia, leading to defeat in Ukraine.

The outcome of the war is central to everyone’s thinking. To judge by the recent failures of Ukrainian offensive operations, if the Russian regime and state remain united the Russian army stands a good chance of defending its existing lines. From conversations I’ve had, it appears that a large majority of elite and ordinary Russians would accept a ceasefire along the present battle lines and would not mount any challenge if Putin proposed or agreed to such a ceasefire and presented it as a sufficient Russian victory.

Hardline nationalist elements in the establishment and military would be deeply unhappy; but they have been weakened by Prigozhin’s fall and the accompanying steps that Putin has taken to curb their influence, including the dismissal of two generals and the arrest of the ultra-nationalist leader and former Donbas militia commander Igor Girkin. However, Putin is clearly still afraid of their influence and their continued admiration for Prigozhin; which is doubtless why he made sure that Prigozhin’s funeral was strictly private.

The hardline nationalists’ preferred programme, which is total victory in Ukraine and would entail the complete mobilisation of the population and the economy along the lines of 1942, would be deeply unpopular among most of the population and would pose a mortal threat to the property of the economic elites – which is doubtless why Putin has so far rejected it.

The general elite aversion to pursuing total victory in Ukraine is however not the same thing as a willingness to accept Russian defeat – which is all that the Ukrainian and US governments are presently offering. Nobody with whom I have spoken within the Moscow elite, and very few indeed in the wider population, has said that Russia should surrender Crimea and the eastern Donbas. Unless Russian sovereignty over these territories is formally recognised by Ukraine – something that Kyiv has categorically excluded – the Russians who take this view believe that Russia must hold the additional territory it has taken since last year’s invasion, to head off any future Ukrainian attack on Crimea and the Donbas.

There was no evidence the Russian elite, and indeed regular Russians, wanted the invasion to happen in the first place. That decision was made by Putin and his immediate entourage. But there is still a general unwillingness to see Russia defeated and humiliated in Ukraine. A comparison can be made here with certain US soldiers of my acquaintance, who had not wanted the invasion of Iraq, but who also, once the US military was engaged there, did not want to see it beaten.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia fortifies defenses around Crimea bridge, UK says

Countermeasures reportedly include sinking ships in the strategic Kerch Strait to act as barriers.

www.politico.eu

Russia’s armed forces are reportedly reinforcing the only bridge linking the country to Crimea, in an increasingly desperate effort to protect the vital logistics route against Ukrainian attacks on Moscow’s military infrastructure around the Black Sea.

The British Ministry of Defense said that “Russia is employing a range of passive defenses such as smoke generators and underwater barriers, alongside active defense measures such as air defense systems,” according to the latest U.K. war intelligence update released Friday.

The Russian move is designed to “strengthen the survivability” of the 19-kilometer Crimean bridge — Europe’s longest — and also protect ferries carrying troops and weapons into Ukraine, according to the assessment.

According to U.K. intelligence, satellite imagery shows that since August 29, an underwater barrier has been created using sunken ships to block sea drones. Just a fortnight ago, Kyiv’s forces said they had used the uncrewed vessels to strike the Crimean bridge, doing significant damage to its structure.

Ukrainian troops consolidate on southern front after some gains, officials say

Ukrainian forces are making gradual gains in their counteroffensive in southeastern regions of the country, according to official Ukrainian accounts and Russian military bloggers. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The Ukrainian military says its units on the southern Zaporizhzhia front are consolidating their positions after making some progress.

The General Staff said Friday that forces were pushing towards the village of Novoprokopivka. "They have been successful, are consolidating their positions, inflicting artillery fire on the identified enemy targets, and conducting counter-battery operations."

However, the Russian military blogger WarGonzo reported that Russian forces had counterattacked near the village of Verbove in the same sector.

Ukrainian soldiers have said they expect battles for control of high ground to the south and east of the village as they approach the next layer of Russian defenses. The goal of Ukrainian forces in this area is to punch a hole through the multi-layered Russian defensive fortifications and approach the strategic hub of Tokmak.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported Thursday that Russian forces repelled five Ukrainian assaults near Verbove.

CNN is unable to verify independently the battlefield claims of either side.

The Ukrainians also claim to have reached "parity" with the Russians in terms of artillery range. Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov told Ukrainian media Thursday that the Ukrainians are benefiting from the longer range of field artillery provided by NATO states.

He said that while Russian artillery had an average range of 24 kilometers, weapons provided to Ukraine could fire between 30 and 40 kilometers.

"This made it possible to destroy or damage the enemy's guns, as well as to move the enemy's artillery from the front line into the depths and prevent counter-battery warfare against our artillery and influence our infantry," Baranov said.

Latest news on Russia's war in Ukraine, drone attacks target Moscow

Ukrainian forces are making gradual gains in their counteroffensive in southeastern regions of the country, according to official Ukrainian accounts and Russian military bloggers. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that drone attacks earlier this week on a Russian air base in Pskov were launched from within Russian territory.

Budanov told the online publication WarZone: "We are operating from Russian territory; four Russian IL-76 military transport planes were hit as a result of the attack."

"Two were destroyed and two were seriously damaged," Budanov said.

Satellite imagery shows that two Il-76s — the aircraft that forms the backbone of Russian military airlift — were destroyed, and two appear to have damaged fuselages.

"The fuel tanks and an important part of the wing spar located in the upper part of the IL-76 were targeted," Budanov said.

However, he declined to tell WarZone what type of drones and how many were used in what was one of Ukraine's most ambitious aerial attacks inside Russia.

Pskov is about 800 kilometers (roughly 500 miles) from the Ukrainian border in northwestern Russia near Estonia.

The Kremlin declined to comment on the claim Friday, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov deferring questions to the Russian defense ministry.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine could get '5th-gen' AMRAAM weapons in 3 years

Raytheon completed the first flight test of a new variation of the air-to-air missile in June.

www.defenseone.com

Ukraine will receive a new variant of the Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile in three to five years, according to weapons-builder Raytheon Technologies.

Ukraine has used older variants of the highly effective missile, carried on a NASAMS air defense system, to defend against Russian drones and missiles. Raytheon is ramping up to essentially double its production of the missile as weapon stockpiles have diminished over the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Raytheon completed its first flight test in June of the latest variant of the missile, called AIM-120C-8, Paul Ferraro, president of Air Power at Raytheon, told reporters Thursday. The missile was fired from an F-15C Eagle at Eglin Air Force Base.

The next-gen AMRAAMs are “wildly different, both hardware-wise and software-wise,” than the current missile, Ferraro said.

Ukraine Fights to Widen Its Puncture of Russian Front Lines

Expanding the small southeastern breach could put critical Russian logistics lines within reach of Ukrainian artillery.

www.wsj.com

Russian officials haven’t commented on the Ukrainian advance to Verbove, which followed by days Ukraine’s retaking of the village of Robotyne, roughly 6 miles west. Crossing the short distance entailed an intense fight, said Oleksandr Solonko, a private in an air-reconnaissance battalion who is operating drones in the area.
“Every step, we had to face minefields, trenches,” he said. Passing concrete dragon’s teeth around Robotyne, he said, had given soldiers a psychological boost, but he added: “There is still huge work ahead of us.”
Satellite and drone imagery shows many lines of fortifications ahead, and Moscow has moved more troops into the region, according to open-source intelligence reports. It remains unclear how heavily the barricades are manned by troops ready to fire on advancing Ukrainian forces or whether the Russians are under coordinated command.
“All obstacles are only speed bumps if they’re not controlled by fire and not part of a larger defense plan,” said Billy Fabian, a former Pentagon strategist and U.S. Army infantry officer.

While Tokmak is the biggest nearby target for advancing Ukrainian troops, they may not launch an attack on the city, which sits roughly 13 miles south of Robotyne and is now ringed by Russian fortifications, said Western analysts.
If Kyiv’s troops can push the front line to about 6 miles outside Tokmak, Ukrainian artillery forces with plentiful 155mm cannons will be able to target its rail and road lines, said Trent Telenko, a former official at the Pentagon’s Defense Contract Management Agency who has studied Russian military logistics.
Extending the front to within 6 miles “will make Tokmak useless as a road-rail transportation node,” said Telenko. At that distance, Ukrainian artillery can stay about 10 miles behind the front, which he said is a sufficient distance to be relatively safe from Russian counter-battery fire.

Even without getting so close to a target, each mile of advance allows Ukraine’s longer-range ground-launched rockets to hit more Russian assets. Ukraine’s Western-made Himars and M270 mobile launchers fire projectiles with a range of at most about 50 miles.
The M14 highway is about 50 miles south of Robotyne and Verbove, but the launchers must stay several miles back from the front for safety, so Ukraine’s recent gains still don’t yet put them in firing range of the Russian supply artery.
Ukrainian military leaders hope that piercing the Russian front at Verbove will allow them to open a much larger breach and flood it with dozens of Western-made tanks and armored vehicles. To protect such a high-profile force from Russian attack, combat veterans say Ukrainian forces must clear a path at least 10 miles wide—and preferably much wider—which will be difficult.
But even a smaller gap threatens Russian forces, said Dave Demorrow, a retired U.S. Army noncommissioned officer who spent years in front-line military intelligence during the Cold War and in Iraq. Smaller, less-armored vehicles such as Humvees or speedy attack squads operating behind Russia’s forward-facing lines could cause chaos, he said.
“Russians can’t fight in 360 degrees—they’re just not trained for that,” Demorrow said. “Even a Humvee with a .50-caliber machine gun on it will tear up an artillery unit” because the unit won’t be equipped to return fire at short range, he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1697316814064165187

Just in: A group of 200 Ukrainian soldiers has wrapped up training on operating and maintaining US M1 Abrams tanks in Germany, I'm told. Tanks will arrive in Ukraine in the fall.

ALSO: The first ten of the promised 31 tanks will arrive in Ukraine by mid-September. They are currently in Germany finishing up final refurbishments.

Some imagery at this link of the Pskov attack:

Moment Of Drone Strike That Destroyed Russian Il-76s Seen In Infrared Image

New satellite imagery shows two Il-76s were totally destroyed and two others damaged in the drone attack on Kresty Air Base.

www.thedrive.com

Short 30 min podcast here: Episode 32: NATO’s Air and Space Lessons from Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 31 and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 31 and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions and achieved unspecified success in the direction of Novodanylivka-Novoprokopivka (5km to 13km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified success in the Bakhmut direction.[2] Ukrainian Chief of the Main Directorate of Missile Forces and Artillery and Unmanned Systems of the General Staff Brigadier General Serhiy Baranov stated that Ukrainian forces have reached parity in counterbattery capabilities with Russian forces.[3] Baranov stated that NATO-provided artillery systems with ranges of 30km to 40km allow Ukrainian forces to destroy Russian artillery systems and force Russian forces to move their artillery further from the frontline.[4] Ukrainian officials previously made statements in late July indicating that Ukraine’s interdiction campaign is successfully degrading Russian counterbattery capabilities.[5] Russian sources have repeatedly expressed concerns since mid-July over the lack of Russian counterbattery artillery capabilities, particularly in southern Ukraine.[6]

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 79. Surovikin Line Penetrated as Russia Staggers Toward a '1917 Moment' in Zaporizhzhia

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/08/31/putins-war-week-79-n2163030

 

[themeistersinger]

BORIS JOHNSON: Prigozhin's assassination is sign of Putin's position

BORIS JOHNSON: Prigozhin thought he had guarantees. Prigozhin thought he had sorted it out. Look at that deal now. Look what happened to him.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[themeistersinger]

Would Long-Range Strike Weapons Be a Game Changer for Ukraine?

It seems that Russia did not account for the possibility that it might find itself in a long-range strike competition against Ukraine, another deadly miscalculation by the Putin regime.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Intelligence Chief: Drone strike on Pskov launched from inside Russia

“We are working from the territory of Russia,” Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov told media outlet The War Zone on Aug. 31.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1697614133967921524

Any objective observer "can't deny" that Ukraine has made progress, even if it's been slow, in the counteroffensive, says NSC spox John Kirby.

Recent anonymous criticism about Ukrainian operations is "not helpful," he says.

Russia Puts Nuclear-Capable Sarmat Missile on Combat Duty

Russia has placed its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on combat alert, bringing into commission a weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads that President Vladimir Putin earlier said would guarantee the nation’s security.

www.bloomberg.com

Russia has placed its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on combat alert, bringing into commission a weapon capable of carrying nuclear warheads that President Vladimir Putin earlier said would guarantee the nation’s security.
The head of Roscosmos, Yury Borisov, made the announcement Friday, according to the Interfax news service.
Putin revealed the ICBM in a March 2018 speech where he touted a series of new modern weapons, but the first test launch was only conducted in April last year, two months after the start of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin has called Sarmat a “unique weapon” that would strengthen Russia’s military potential and force any country who threatens it “to think again.”

https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/status/1697619758135349385

Given that the West has memory holed so much of the Cold War, it might be useful for those hysterically claiming NATO & Russia are a hairs breath from going to war with one another & tensions have never been higher, to remember the time the Soviets killed a sitting US Congressman

This incident is the one he's referencing

Military analyst points to Ukraine's domestic drone arsenal – DW – 09/01/2023

p.dw.com

Ukraine could increasingly turn to drones to attack Russian positions as the counteroffensive continues, a military analyst told DW.

It comes after Russia thwarted a drone strike on Moscow on Friday. Kyiv said the attack was launched from inside Russian territory and, as a rule, does not claim responsibility for such operations.

Marina Miron from King's College London said there are three benefits of using drones over missiles or other weapons.

"It doesn't risk the loss of human life on the Ukrainian side," she told DW's Terry Martin.

"It also removes any responsibility from the Western backers because Ukrainian-made drones are used, according to Ukrainian sources. And it is much cheaper than sending something like a Storm Shadow missile, which would cost $3 million (€2.75 million) with a potential political fallout."

She believes that drone attacks on Russian positions were carried out with drones made domestically in Ukraine, which would minimize the fallout of such attacks.

She pointed to the UJ-22 drone, the Beaver drone, and potentially a third model that experts have yet to properly identify.

"It is indeed a miracle that the Russians still haven't found the factories where those drones are being produced," Miron said.

"Apparently the Beaver drone has been in design for several years, but it hasn't been used until the Russian invasion of Ukraine."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

An interesting read into the mind/perspective of a Russian oligarch named Andrey Melnichenko: https://www.ft.com/content/2938964e-7dd1-4bad-be76-b78bf1cae34a

Melnichenko admits that the war caught him by surprise. He had flown to Moscow for what he expected would be a routine Kremlin visit for the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, an oligarch lobbying group. “You have to meet officials pretty often. How else are you supposed to work in the country?” he says. “You wake up and see missiles flying on TV, and you have a choice to go or not. How can you not go?”
Russia’s business elite sat ashen-faced as Putin told them he had been forced to start the war and demanded that they rally around the Kremlin. Many of the attendees lamented that the empires they had spent decades building were ruined, and sank into despair.
But Melnichenko, as I will learn over our four-hour lunch, is not the despairing type. He repeatedly mentions a recent speech by CIA director William Burns, who said the world is going through a “plastic moment” of the sort unseen since the end of the cold war. “So much is changing,” Melnichenko remarks.

The shock of the war wasn’t enough to jolt Melnichenko into realising that his old life was over. He went home to Switzerland, then headed off to celebrate his birthday near Mount Kilimanjaro, only to discover that the EU had sanctioned him a day later.
“I honestly wasn’t expecting it,” he said. “I’ve been living in Switzerland for 14 years. I don’t make weapons for the war. I make food for people and energy for power stations all over the world. I don’t promote the war. I’m not involved in politics. What’s the point?”

In sanctioning the oligarchs en masse, the west hoped they would rise up to protect their riches and stage a palace coup against Putin, or at least call for an end to the war. I ask Melnichenko why that didn’t happen — are Putin and his security services too entrenched, and the oligarchs too weak? But Melnichenko doesn’t appear to think Putin is primarily responsible for the war at all.
“This was a global mistake. The people who tried to stop it didn’t do their job,” he says. In Melnichenko’s analysis, the west let things spiral out of control when it decided Russia was a “rusty petrol station” in terminal decline due to its over-dependence on oil and gas. “What does a weakening power do? You can’t solve domestic problems? Then you go to war.”
Putin has said many times that he had no choice other than to start the war — but, I point out, has always framed it as his decision.
But “life is much more complicated”, Melnichenko says. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is responsible for the war because “he made it a goal of his election campaign to avoid the war, but provoked his strong, aggressive neighbour into doing it through his extreme unprofessionalism”. The CIA’s Burns failed when the US declassified intelligence that Putin was planning the invasion. “That means he did his job badly and couldn’t achieve what he needed to — to avoid the war.”

Melnichenko says “the responsibility is collective” — so I ask him if he feels any guilt for the war. “I absolutely don’t consider myself personally responsible for the tragedies that have happened,” he says, insisting that the fault lies with world leaders. “Trying to work out who is guilty and not guilty is very dangerous.”

Melnichenko is far more animated about the broader consequences of the sanctions against him, which have become part of a global tug of war over grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Melnichenko likens these sanctions, which he says have driven up global food prices and precipitated a hunger crisis in poor countries, to the US nuclear bombing of Hiroshima. “It didn’t hit many military targets, the war’s outcome had already been determined, and the suffering [is] enormous,” he says. “It’s exactly the same.”
Melnichenko then spends considerable effort trying to get me to agree with him on this, waving away my protests that he’s wrong to decry the sanctions in such terms while remaining so equivocal about their root cause — the war that Russia started. “If you are harming millions who have nothing to do with the conflict, you are a war criminal,” he says, making the case that sanctions are economic weapons of mass destruction. “Don’t hide behind the term collateral damage — it’s a crime. It doesn’t matter why you did it.”
I ask Melnichenko if what Russia is doing in Ukraine is a crime. “In my view, yes,” he says. He subsequently got in touch with the FT to say his answer referred to specific scenes of attacks on civilian targets which are, in his view, a crime.
“In my view, many events . . . once again, I’m not on the ground, I’m not on the ground, I am not an expert, I cannot describe this or that specific instance.”
But he’s seen the same pictures of destroyed cities as I have, I say. “Once again, I wasn’t on the ground, what can I say? We are getting distracted here. War brings up all sorts of odious people to the surface from both sides. There are definitely war crimes from both sides. This happens in any war. It’s natural. It doesn’t matter who started it.”
Having failed to convince him that it does matter, I ask Melnichenko what he thinks about the warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner paramilitaries staged a failed mutiny two weeks before our meeting. (A few weeks afterwards, Prigozhin would die in murky circumstances in a plane crash.)

Melnichenko says the stability of Putin’s regime depends less on internal conflicts than his ability to win the war. “How’s the leader of my country going to look in five years? Someone who defended the country from a parasite that grew and could have grown bigger, but he stopped it from crossing the line? Or a loser who became isolated and started making maniacal decisions? The winner will decide,” he says. In that time, “the chaos will intensify . . . it looks like gladiators fighting in the Coliseum.”
Melnichenko worries that the long-term consequences of the war will be felt well beyond Ukraine. “I don’t see a trend for de-escalation anywhere, unfortunately. That scares me,” he says. “The longer things go on and the more [society’s] expectations are thwarted, the harder it is to mobilise it. There’s a limit to how long propaganda can rally people for destruction. People get tired of it and want to move on. Leaders start losing popularity.”
In Moscow elite circles, the mutiny has fuelled worries of a “time of troubles” verging on civil war. “[But] the time of troubles won’t be limited to Russia,” Melnichenko says.
“In cultural studies there’s a concept of the time of carnivals, and the time of orgies. Carnivals are when everyone puts on a mask and plays by the rules. Orgies are when everyone goes crazy. We’re in the time of orgies. And it very much looks like it’s not going to end well.”
Surely, I say again, the ultimate responsibility for that lies with Putin — but this is not how Melnichenko sees the world. “It’s pointless to talk about good and evil, because it all depends where you’re looking at it from,” he says. “This is a time when the masks are off, and everyone is going wild.”

Not that I personally agree with much of what he said. Not particularly shocking he doesn't blame Putin for the war. Wonder what he actually thinks behind closed doors.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some video of the attack on Pskov and the damaging of a Il-76: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1697625317072908647

Some footage from unknown location: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1697594486317039904

EOS demonstrates counter-drone systems - EOS

Canberra defence and technology company EOS has demonstrated its gun and laser counter-drone systems to defence officials and foreign defence attaches during trials in outback NSW.

eos-aus.com

Canberra defence and technology company EOS has demonstrated its gun and laser counter-drone systems to defence officials and foreign defence attaches during trials in outback NSW.

Over three weeks, EOS tested its Slinger and Titanis counter-unmanned aircraft (UAS) and directed energy counter-UAS systems on the vast Klondyke Range Complex, 800 km north-west of Sydney.

“We are demonstrating the hard kill and laser engagement systems, part of the Titanis counter-drone capability – Slinger on EOS’ Denali 4x4 and the 34-kilowatt high energy laser system engaging drones at ranges out to 1500 metres,” Matt Jones, EOS Executive Vice-President for Defence Systems, told ADM.

“This technology is actually going to Ukraine. The hard kill engagement Slinger system have been purchased by the US for donation to Ukraine. The laser technology is still being finished in terms of development so that’s not currently under consideration.”

The gun technology is now fully mature at TRL9 and being used in the field for ground and counter-drone operations.

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that drones of every description are likely to be encountered in any future conflict in which the Australian Defence Force participates.

That includes cheap surveillance drones reporting on troop movements in real time, improvised suicide drones equipped with small explosive devices, through to what are essentially cruise missiles such as the Iranian Shahed 136 which has been extensively employed by Russian forces.

That’s placed a premium on counter-drone capabilities, with growing global interest in Australian technology.

https://twitter.com/David_Hambling/status/1697553893687701559

Russian engineers are making FPV kamikaze drones smarter, more powerful and longer ranged -- but the procurement system is slowing introduction . my take for Forbes, thanks to
@sambendett

Russia’s New Arsenal Of Deadlier FPV Drones Is Coming— If They Can Get Through The Bureaucracy

Russia is developing a wide range of new FPV drone technologies, giving more hitting power, longer range and more intelligence. But introduction is slowed by a sluggish military procurement system.

www.forbes.com

All these new capabilities offer huge potential, but as Bendett explains, the technology is moving too fast for the Russian military’s sluggish pace of adaptation.
“There is no official pilot training in military schools. There is training across certain military districts or bases, but there is no official MOD directive to implement this drone technology across services,” says Bendett. “FPV combat experience is not shared widely and evenly, while, according to many Russian commentators, the tactical situation is constantly changing due to the rapid FPV developments.”
There is still some doubt over how committed the Russian military establishment is to FPV drones, and for the mean time soldiers still have to procure their own, as they are not issued through normal channels.
“The relationship between the official MoD offices, the military-industrial complex and the volunteers is rather tenuous still, even in light of FPV successes already visible at the front,” says Bendett. “This relationship is still evolving, but it’s likely that volunteers will continue to deliver their own FPVs to the front for some time.”
Russian engineers are developing a host of technologies to make FPVs even more dangerous, but is struggling to get them into the field rapidly. Ukrainians are of course working on parallel developments, many of which closely resemble their Russian counterparts, and Ukraine’s more open and decentralized system (as seen in the highly successful Army of Drones initiative) may give a definite edge when it comes to deploying new technology at scale.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1697640466014208283

August 2023 Ukrainian Counteroffensive progress GIF. Ukrainian forces deepen & widened their penetration into Russian-occupied Zaporizhia in August 2023, particularly in late August. Users can explore these recent battlefield changes using this tool: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a411ae7ce1264de0a694a77ea011e72b

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Finally, a good reply to the concern trolling by "useful idiots", Russian bots, and the generally misguided about "won't someone stop the war so the suffering ends"...

As a Ukrainian leftist, lemme tell you exactly how a ‘prolonged war’ is going to affect us: it’ll mean that we’re not being tortured under occupation, all of our cities won’t be razed to the ground like Mariupol was, and we won’t be forced to join an ethnofacist state.

Ending the war today doesn't "end the suffering". Ending the war today means that the ones doing the suffering would be the Ukrainian citizens under occupation by a authoritarian, terrorist regime.

Yes, war is awful. But the status quo -- where it's Russians and Ukrainian service members doing the bulk of suffering -- is infinitely better than turning over innocent people to a murderous state indefinitely.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1697702050765693205

Because of Russia's full-scale war and all its brutality, Ukrainians are increasingly committed to a cultural divorce from Russia. And the longer the war goes on, the more Russia incriminates itself in the eyes of the Ukrainian people.

Consider some recent polling data.

90.4% of Ukrainians say they oppose making any territorial concessions to Russia to end the war, according to a poll conducted from Aug. 9 to 15 by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

Less than 5% of Ukrainians are ready to make territorial concessions to end the war, that poll found.

Also — 73.8% of Ukrainians oppose renouncing the possibility of NATO membership to end the war.

And — 75.1% oppose accepting Russian as the official state language to end the war.

That poll also found that 88.5% of Ukrainians are proud of their citizenship — "Pride in citizenship is now the highest it has been since Ukraine's independence," the Foundation reported.

Some more findings from a poll (published Aug. 24, conducted in May) by the Razumkov Centre.

Percentage of respondents who associated Russia with the following words:

"Aggression" — from 66% in 2017 to 91% in 2023.

"Dictatorship" — from 60% in 2017 to 87% in 2023.

"Cruelty" — from 57% in 2017 to 89% in 2023.

Regarding the statement: “Ukrainians and Russians have always been and remain fraternal nations” — In 2017, 27% of respondents agreed…in 2023, only 4% agreed.

"The changes compared to 2017 are especially noticeable in the Eastern and Southern regions," the Razumkov Centre reported.

Map: https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1697677608106766788

Kupyansk Front Map (September 1)

In Kharkiv Oblast, the frontline remains stable around Kupyansk

Despite Russian claims, Russian Forces do not control the town of Synkivka and are no more than a kilometer closer to the city of Kupyansk than they were at the beginning of June

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is speeding up

Territorial gains have been slower than hoped. But this could be a turning point

www.economist.com

Since June 5th Ukraine has reclaimed 108 square kilometres of occupied territory, according to maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think-tank. (More territory has changed hands, as Russia has gained in places, too.) But 38 sq km of that has been secured by Ukrainian troops since August 22nd alone. That is a tiny percentage of the more than 100,000 sq km that remains in Russian hands. But the acceleration offers hope.
So does recent news from the southern front. The thrust of Ukraine’s attack now appears to be focused south of the city of Zaporizhia. On August 28th, after a gruelling three-month slog on multiple fronts, Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne, a village of some 500 people along the main axis of attack. Robotyne is hardly a grand prize itself. But its capture means that Ukrainian troops have at last reached the so-called Surovikin line, the main Russian line of fortifications in the area. Russia has concentrated its resources on this first line of defence (see map). That could put the Ukrainians on the verge of a breakthrough: beyond this point Russia’s defences are shallower, and its reserves—they hope—thinner.

What explains the recent gains? New gear, in part. Ukraine’s allies have donated weapons such as Excalibur, Storm Shadow and DPICM cluster munitions. These have slowly degraded Russian forces, making it possible for Ukrainian forces to advance. New mine-clearing equipment has made a slow and dangerous task slightly less so. And Ukraine has stepped up its drone warfare, hitting targets deep behind Russian defensive lines in Ukraine and in Russia itself. Some, such as Moscow’s central financial district, had little military value. But attacks on command-and-control centres, aircraft and logistic hubs may have reduced Russia’s ability to fight or reinforce its troops. Especially so from around mid-June onwards, when the Ukrainian command decided to prioritise striking such positions with its high-precision weapons.
Ukraine has also committed some of its reserves to the fight. This includes its 10th Corps, and more recently, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Such commitments do, however, involve a trade-off: feeling more at ease elsewhere, Russia has committed more of its reserves to the fight, too, including the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which is seen as among its best remaining units.

There are signs of a significant increase in Ukraine’s bombardment of Russian forces, starting in early August (see chart). Our tracker of war activity, which updates daily using satellite data, suggests that the number of war-related fires in Russian-held areas is higher than at any time since the conflict began. (Abnormally hot and dry vegetation is surely also playing a part.) A similar, if smaller ramp-up, took place before a counter-offensive last autumn, which resulted in the liberation of Kherson. Though the tracker also observed an increase in such fires before the current offensive started in June, which resulted in limited immediate gains.

Exclusive: US to send depleted-uranium munitions to Ukraine

The Biden administration will for the first time send controversial armor-piercing munitions containing depleted uranium to Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters and separately confirmed by two U.S. officials.

www.reuters.com

The Biden administration will for the first time send controversial armor-piercing munitions containing depleted uranium to Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters and separately confirmed by two U.S. officials.
The rounds, which could help destroy Russian tanks, are part of a new military aid package for Ukraine set to be unveiled in the next week. The munitions can be fired from U.S. Abrams tanks that, according to a person familiar with the matter, are expected be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

GRU officer operating under diplomatic cover in Denmark revealed

Vladimir Grekov, a battlehardened spetsnaz soldier and GRU colonel, is Russia’s new military attaché in Copenhagen.

www.information.dk

While Russia is waging its war of aggression against Ukraine, it has sent a highly decorated, battle-hardened elite soldier and GRU officer to Denmark under diplomatic cover.

A joint investigation by Information and the Dutch newspaper NRC reveals the true background of Russia’s new military attaché in Copenhagen, colonel Vladimir Grekov, who was accepted as a diplomat by the Danish authorities in February this year.

Leaked information obtained through the Dossier Center shows that Mr. Grekov has a background in the special forces of the Russian airborne troops (VDV) and as a manager in the headquarters of the Russian military intelligence service. Intelligence sources consulted by Information and NRC have confirmed that Vladimir Grekov is known to them as an officer of the GRU.

Grekov’s background in the spetsnaz should be a particular concern for the Danish authorities, analysts say.

"I imagine that the Danish Security and Intelligence Service is aware of what such a man is capable of doing, and what he will certainly try to do. It will probably involve operational and subversive activities, perhaps even hybrid warfare," said Jacob Kaarsbo, a former chief analyst at the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE).

The exiled Russian journalist and author Andrei Soldatov, who is an expert on the Russian intelligence services, expresses himself even more dramatically.

"You have to understand that when you bring in someone with experience in special operations, it is not just about gathering intelligence. That’s when arms depots will mysteriously start to explode," he said.

Maybe kick that guy out of your country?

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to def

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Budanov stated on August 31 that the Russian military deployed elements of the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (reportedly formed under the Eastern Military District) to replace elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central Military District) in the Kupyansk direction, and that these elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) began a “slow” redeployment to an unspecified area in southern Ukraine.[1] Elements of the 41st CAA’s 35th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and 90th Tank Division participated in the failed Russian winter 2023 offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast and have continued limited offensive activity along the Svatove-Kreminna line through now.[2] These units are likely degraded and have been operating without brigade and regiment level rotations like many frontline Russian units throughout the theater. ISW previously assessed that a lack of operational reserves would force the Russian command to conduct further lateral redeployments and make tough decisions about what sectors of the front to prioritize.[3] The Russian military command appears to have deployed elements of the newly formed and likely low quality or understrength 25th CAA to Luhansk Oblast to free up the relatively more effective 41st CAA elements for southern Ukraine. Budanov added that elements of the 25th CAA are already participating in hostilities in Luhansk Oblast.[4]

The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment, ahead of a previously reported intended deployment date of December 2023. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) formed a “reserve army” at the end of June, likely referencing the 25th CAA, which began recruiting personnel from the Russian Far East in mid-May.[5] The 25th CAA will reportedly consist of 30,000 contract personnel in two motorized rifle divisions as well as an unspecified number of tank and artillery battalions, although it is unclear what elements have actually formed to date.[6] Budanov stated that Russian forces formed the 25th CAA as a ”strategic“ reserve and did not intend for the formation to be combat ready before October or November 2023.[7] A Russian administrator in Dalnegorsk, Primorsky Krai posted a recruitment ad for the 25th CAA on June 5 that claimed that the 25th CAA would train personnel from September 1 to December 1 and then deploy to either Zaporizhia or Kherson Oblast - ISW has not independently observed reporting of the October or November date Budanov cited but has no reason to question this statement.[8] Ukrainian Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department Oleksii Hromov stated on July 5 that the 25th CAA would not be combat ready until at least 2024.[9] Budanov noted that the 25th CAA elements that have arrived in Luhansk Oblast are understaffed and lack training, unsurprising due to their accelerated deployment.[10] ISW cannot yet independently verify that elements of the 25th CAA are operating in Luhansk Oblast, and the scale of the 25th CAA’s commitment is unclear from Budanov’s comments. The current size and capabilities of the elements of the 25th CAA deployed to Ukraine five months prematurely are unclear. The formation is likely either severely understaffed and not near the paper strength of two divisions, or is poorly trained much like initial Russian mobilized units in fall 2022, or both.

The Russian command likely views the deployment of a combat ineffective formation to Luhansk Oblast as a tolerable risk given the relatively lower tempo of operations along much of the Luhansk Oblast frontline. The recent lateral redeployment of elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast in late August further suggests that the Russian military command likely views this sector of the front as relatively safe.[11] Ukrainian forces are conducting limited ground attacks in Luhansk Oblast compared to other areas of the front.

A Russian public opinion poll indicates that there is likely little to no societal discontent around the Wagner Group or its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, and the true cause of the plane crash will have little impact on both Russian perceptions and the future of the Wagner Group. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center found that roughly equivalent percentages of Russians believe that either Prigozhin’s death was accidental; Russian authorities intentionally orchestrated Prigozhin’s death; Prigozhin is still alive; or the cause of Prigozhin’s death is difficult to determine.[32] Levada Center polls conducted on June 23 and August 23 found that Russians are almost evenly split between disapproving and approving of Prigozhin’s activities.[33] Public opinion on the death of Prigozhin (very likely a Kremlin-directed assassination) would only impact Kremlin or Ministry of Defense decision making if public opposition reached a far higher threshold, and the Kremlin likely in fact benefits from continued disagreement in Russian society over the circumstances of Prigozhin’s death.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia risks dividing its forces — UK intelligence update – DW – 09/02/2023

p.dw.com

By simultaneously repelling the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of the country and attacking in the east itself, Russian forces risk dividing their forces, UK Defense Ministry said in its intelligence update.

Russia is continuing to advance on Kupiansk in eastern Ukraine, trying to force Ukraine to split its units between the south and east, the update said.

"Given that Russia has made modest gains near Kupiansk since the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June, they are highly likely seeking to capitalize" by continuing to resource this area of the front, the ministry said.

However, this could force Russia itself to split up its troops in order to prevent a breakthrough by Ukraine around Orikhiv to the south, according to the update.

Ukainian forces have reached the first main Russian defense line there despite the efforts of the Russian forces, primarily composed of the 58 Combined Arms Army and Russian Airborne Forces elements, to halt them.

Meanwhile, the White House on Friday said that Ukrainian forces in recent days have made "notable progress" against Russian troops in their southern offensive.

"Any objective observer of this counteroffensive, you can't deny... that they have made progress now," White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters, calling criticism of the Ukrainian effort by anonymous officials "not helpful."

DW speaks to Ukrainians fleeing life under Russian-occupation – DW – 09/02/2023

p.dw.com

More than 18 months after Russia launched its invasion, many Ukrainians are still seeking ways to escape occupied territories.

One way is to go into Russia and then enter Ukrainian-controlled areas. DW's Aya Ibrahim met people who had fled at a border reception center.

One woman described the pressure her family faced under Russian occupation, including threats to take her two small children away to a boarding school.

"They're Russians and they do not consider us Ukrainians as human beings," she said.

For more on the story, click to watch the full report:

The video is at the link. Seems like one of the people interviewed were in Kherson. One woman says Russian authorities threatened to take her two small children away to a boarding school.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin’s Russia must not be allowed to normalize nuclear blackmail

Vladimir Putin has used nuclear threats to intimidate the West and reduce the flow of military aid to Ukraine. If this trend does not change, Russia will succeed in normalizing nuclear blackmail as a foreign policy tool, writes Olivia Yanchik.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1697980402336473111

Want to see Russia’s fortifications in occupied Ukraine for yourself? Check out the interactive map that links each point to satellite imagery: https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-field-fortifications-in-ukraine…

‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence

In an exclusive interview, a leading Ukrainian general says his forces have made a vital breakthrough in near Zaporizhzhia

www.theguardian.com

Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, and expect faster gains as they press the weaker second line, the general leading the southern counteroffensive has said.

Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy estimated Russia had devoted 60% of its time and resources into building the first defensive line and only 20% each into the second and third lines because Moscow had not expected Ukrainian forces to get through.

“We are now between the first and second defensive lines,” he said, speaking to the Observer in his first interview since the breakthrough. Ukrainian forces were now pushing out on both sides of the breach and consolidating their hold on territory seized in recent fighting, he said.

“In the centre of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line.”

A vast minefield trapped Ukrainian troops for weeks as infantry sappers slowly cleared an assault route on foot. Russian troops behind it “just stood and waited for the Ukrainian army”, picking off vehicles with shells and drones, he said.

But now that barrier has been crossed, Russians have been forced into manoeuvres and Ukrainians are back in their tanks and other armoured vehicles. In a sign that Moscow is feeling the pressure, it has redeployed troops to the area from frontlines inside occupied Ukraine – Kherson to the west and Lyman to the north-east – and also from inside Russia, he said.

“The enemy is pulling up reserves, not only from Ukraine but also from Russia. But sooner or later, the Russians will run out of all the best soldiers. This will give us an impetus to attack more and faster,” Tarnavskiy said. “Everything is ahead of us.”

Instead, it stalled for months, with casualties mounting but frontlines apparently static, feeding discontent and criticism in western capitals that had provided weapons and training.

Tarnavskiy shrugged off that criticism, saying he preferred to judge a job when finished and thanking the UK and other allies for their support in training and weapons, including Challenger tanks that are already in the field. “When we started the counteroffensive ... we spent more time than we expected on de-mining the territories,” he admitted. “Unfortunately, the evacuation of the wounded was difficult for us. And this also complicated our advance.

“In my opinion, the Russians believed the Ukrainians would not get through this line of defence. They had been preparing for over one year. They did everything to make sure that this area was prepared well.”

Russian troops were ensconced in concrete dugouts behind anti-tank traps and beyond a minefield so packed with explosives, and so exposed, that any vehicles – de-mining or assault – that approached the area were shelled heavily from fixed, reinforced positions, he said. But Ukrainians, who have repeatedly surprised the world in their success against Russian military might, pressed forward. Infantry forces went out at night to painstakingly clear a corridor through the mines, moving metre by metre in the dark.

“As soon as any equipment appeared there, the Russians immediately began to fire at it and destroy it. That’s why de-mining was carried out only by infantry and only at night.”

Now that the minefield has been breached, Russians have lost much of their advantage. “There is a very big difference between the first and second line of defence,” said Tarnavskiy.

The second line is not as well built, so Ukrainians can use their vehicles, although there are still minefields. Because Russian forces are also operating in this area, they are in patches rather than a single defensive cordon.

When asked about slow progress breaking through Russian lines in another offensive further east along the enemy’s defensive line, he said it had other aims and added that Ukraine was preparing other surprise offensives to drain Moscow’s forces.

“To be successful in one direction, you always need to mislead the enemy. The main goal of the [offensive near the] village of Velyka Novosilka had a different aim,” Tarnavskiy said. He refused to be drawn on timelines for reaching big targets such as Melitopol, or the coastline for the Sea of Azov, but said fighting would continue.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1698302027552436366

Brace yourselves, because russians have once again showcased unparalleled innovation. What you are looking at is a satellite image featuring a TU-95 strategic bomber covered with car tires. According to them, this should protect strategic bombers from drones

Ukraine War: Counter-offensive troops punch through Russia line, generals claim

Kyiv says its troops are gaining momentum in what continues to be a lengthy and bloody counter-offensive.

www.bbc.com

It is hard to assess the significance of the latest claims. Ukrainian officials are extremely tight-lipped when asked for precise details, preferring to allow the fog of war to shroud Kyiv's intentions and extremely reluctant to avoid releasing sensitive information.

It does not help that the forces closest to the fight sometimes give very different accounts of what is happening at the front.

Approached by the BBC on Saturday, Ukraine's 46th Air Assault Brigade said fighting was continuing near Russia's first line of defence, but that "no one has yet managed to go beyond the first line."

This may be less surprising than it sounds. A plethora of units are operating up and down the front, each concentrating on their own narrow section and specific tasks. They do not necessarily know what is going on elsewhere.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky Says He’ll Replace Ukraine’s Defense Minister

The fate of the defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, had been the subject of increasing speculation in Ukraine. It was the biggest shake-up in Ukraine’s government since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

www.nytimes.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that he was replacing his minister of defense, in the biggest shake-up in Ukraine’s government since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February last year.
The fate of the defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, had been the subject of increasing speculation in Ukraine as financial improprieties in the ministry have come to light and the government had started several investigations into official corruption.
Mr. Zelensky said in a statement that he would replace Mr. Reznikov, who has not been personally implicated in the widening investigations into mishandling of military contracts, with Rustem Umerov, the chairman of Ukraine’s State Property Fund. Mr. Zelensky said he expected Ukraine’s Parliament, which must approve the change, to sign off on his request.

Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov dismissed

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Oleksii Reznikov, saying "new approaches" were needed.

www.bbc.com

Rustem Umerov, who runs Ukraine's State Property Fund, has been nominated by Mr Zelensky as Mr Reznikov's successor.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1698434705769505095

Exclusive footage of the special operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine "Synytsia" as a Russian pilot surrendered to Ukraine together with the Mi-8AMTSh helicopter

The Russian pilot calls on other Russian pilots to follow his example.

Ukraine to deploy F-16s by spring — defense minister – DW – 09/03/2023

p.dw.com

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he expects Ukraine to deploy F-16 fighter jets by next spring.

He made the comments in an interview for Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform.

He said that the aircraft could only be deployed by spring as pilots would first need to be trained on the jets .

The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have all promised Ukraine the jets.

So far, Ukraine has been guaranteed at least 50 aircraft, fewer than the 160 demanded by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Reznikov said he had to write several letters with assurances Kyiv would only use the aircraft for defense purposes and not strike on Russian territory.

Kyiv's allies have long hesitated over providing Ukraine with weapons with long-range capabilities over fears attacks on Russian territory could lead to an escalation of the war.

Military briefing: Kyiv ignores calls for reset of its ‘sneak and peek’ tactics | Financial Times

Attritional campaign in the south seeks to break Russian defences to enable breakthrough

www.ft.com

Arenosol is a sandy, well-aerated soil which dries quickly. Its presence in a swath of land either side of the strategic south-eastern city of Melitopol is one little-known reason why Kyiv’s counteroffensive may yet have a better chance of success than some of Ukraine’s allies fear.
“It is an example of the importance of local knowledge, the specific situations and context that determine every war,” said Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies.
“Because much of the soil in southern Ukraine remains firm even with rain, Ukrainian troops will still be able to manoeuvre through the winter. Time is not necessarily the limiting factor some people believe,” he added.
Even as some allies have despaired of the campaign’s slow progress, Kyiv’s military chiefs argue that such detailed local awareness is key to its counteroffensive, enabling Ukraine to make small but significant gains while saving troops’ lives. Dmytro Kuleba, foreign minister, last week went so far as to say that critics of the campaign should “shut up”.
The sandier soil of the southern Zaporizhzhia region contrasts with the rich black earth that turns much of the rest of Ukraine into a muddy quagmire during the rainy autumn months.

To try to break through Russian defences, Ukrainian forces have taken a three-pronged approach. The first involves slowly clearing a path through the minefields, often by hand and under cover of night.
“There is so much metal and shrapnel that metal detectors don’t work,” said one European military official. “The Ukrainians have to be extra clever; it’s a game of sneak and peek.”
The second prong uses long-range artillery and precision missiles supplied by the west to attack ammunition dumps, logistics and command centres, and prevent Russian forces from being able to resupply the front line.
It is a time-consuming process that Zagorodnyuk compared to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which began with a bombing campaign to take out enemy logistics and defences before land forces attacked.
“That wasn’t called a war of attrition. It was part of a process to deny Iraqis the possibility of defending their positions,” he said. “Our process of preparation is taking longer but then we don’t have air supremacy like the US-led forces did then.”

The third prong involves using air and marine attacks with Ukrainian-made drones to hit targets in Crimea and deep inside Russia. Last Wednesday drones hit several Russian regions, destroying at least two military cargo planes at Pskov air base.
“The strikes help give a feeling of symmetry [between Ukrainian and Russian forces] and that we can undermine [Vladimir] Putin,” Bielieskov said.
The summer campaign appears to be reaching a decisive moment. Fearful of a Ukrainian breakthrough, Russian commanders have sent reserves to bolster the southern lines, including crack troops from its 76th air assault division.
They are also increasing attacks in the north-east, around the city of Kupyansk, in an attempt to draw resources away from Ukraine’s main southern offensive.
“It is a threat, for sure, but our commanders consider it is manageable,” Zagorodnyuk said.

As for how many troops Kyiv has kept back to reinforce any breakout, one Ukrainian defence adviser suggested that it still had strategic reserves to deploy. But how many remains, for now, a close guarded secret.

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine Has Won the Battle to Penetrate Russia’s First Defensive Belt (What Happens Now?)

Ukraine revealed that their forces finally broken through the first line of Russia’s vaunted main line of defense in the Zaporezhia region. A careful analysis of the tactical situation, however, reveals the situation for the UAF remains tenuous.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The Prime Minister of Albania does a funny.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Some info on the new defense minister: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...s-09-04-23/h_b86a7e8b9b69cd93c513c1c4145b7fc3

Rustem Umerov is set to become Ukraine’s new defense minister as the war enters a critical phase, with the counteroffensive seeking to splinter Russian fortifications in the south, and Kyiv hoping to secure further support from allies.

Umerov, a Crimean Tatar, is currently chair of the State Property Fund, designed to attract investment into Ukraine, and has been closely involved in prisoner of war exchanges since Russia invaded.

He was also a senior negotiator in the creation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative – and more than once questioned for how long Moscow would abide by the deal.

Umerov is not from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s governing Servant of the People party, but from the small Golos party. He is Muslim and his background has enabled him to develop links with the Gulf states.

Umerov will have a bulging in-tray if and when the Ukrainian parliament approves his appointment.

Ukraine is trying to accelerate the training and deployment of F-16 fighter jets as well as acquire a host of other equipment to help drive Russia from occupied territories.

The defense minister is also Ukraine’s main interlocutor with Western allies through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Umerov’s predecessor, Oleksii Reznikov, developed relationships with senior US and European officials through the group, which meets again later this month.

Reznikov’s tenure was damaged by contract scandals involving the defense ministry, which led to some unease about the allocation of aid among Western partners.

There were several investigations into corruption in procurement at the Ukrainian defense ministry, which threatened to overshadow the focus on reforming Ukraine’s military into a modern force based on Western technology and tactics.

While allegations of corruption did not impinge personally on Reznikov, he acknowledged they had been damaging. It's been widely reported that Reznikov will be moved to a different ministry.

Zelenskyy announces agreement to train pilots in France – DW – 09/04/2023

p.dw.com

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a "very important agreement" which involves training Ukrainian pilots in France, a deal which was reached in conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday.

Speaking during his nightly video address, Zelenskyy did not give further details regarding the training, such as which jets would be used.

France does not have the F-16 fighter jets, which neighboring Denmark and the Netherlands have recently promised to provide. It does possess the French-made Rafale warplanes, as well as the previous-generation mirage 2000 jets.

"Our coalition of modern fighters is becoming stronger," Zelenskyy said.

The two presidents also discussed potential French support to the Ukrainian city and region of Odesa, which is critical to the export of grains, Zelenskyy said.

Need more details on that agreement.

Ukraine presses Germany for fast delivery of Taurus missiles – DW – 09/04/2023

p.dw.com

Ukraine has urged Berlin to supply it with Taurus missiles, with several Ukrainian officials stressing the importance of the missiles in the fight against Russia.

Presidential adviser Mychailo Podolyak told Germany's Bild newspaper that Berlin needed to make "decisions faster and more decisively." He stressed there is "no other way to destroy Russian logistics and rearguard, so Taurus is needed."

Podolyak reassured that Kyiv's goal was not "to attack Russian territory," but "to destroy the resources of the occupiers."

Meanwhile, German Free Democratic Party (FDP) politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann has blamed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the delay. Writing on X, the social media platform previously known as Twitter, she said Scholz "alone is blocking this decision within the coalition."

"This is irresponsible," she wrote.
Both Kyiv and Germany's Greens and FDP have been calling for the delivery of the cruise missiles, which have a long range and destructive power.

The chancellor's Social Democratic Party (SPD) is wary that the delivery of a weapon system with a range of over 500 kilometers (310 miles) might escalate the conflict, if the missiles are used to strike Russian territories.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2023

Ukrainian military officers offered notably frank and direct commentary about the prospects of further Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and indicated that the series of prepared Russian defensive positions immediately ahead and further south of the Ukrainian advance may be less...

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian military officials particularly noted that advancing Ukrainian forces can operate more freely in areas with sparser Russian minefields. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated on September 3 that minefields near the next series of Russian defensive positions are less dense than the initial defensive layer that Ukrainian forces advanced through.[7] Shtupun and Tarnavskyi both stated that Ukrainian forces are deploying more vehicles in these areas and maneuvering more equipment and troops towards the next Russian defensive layer, but they acknowledged that minefields will still present a significant threat.[8] Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian forces spent more time on mine clearing than they expected to at the beginning of the counteroffensive and that consistent Russian artillery and aviation fire forced Ukrainian infantry to conduct mine clearing only at night.[9] Shtupun added that heavy minefields forced Ukrainian breaching operations onto narrow paths — the exact intent of minefields under Russian defensive doctrine.[10] Ukrainian forces may now be better positioned to maneuver more freely in the tactical rear of the breached Russian defensive layer. Tarnavskyi’s description of the Russian minefields may pertain only to the immediate Robotyne area, and Ukrainian forces may encounter heavily dense minefields at certain sections of subsequent series of Russian defensive positions. Although Ukrainian forces certainly face further hard fighting regardless, Tarnavskyi characterized Ukrainian forces as having successfully broken through the most difficult Russian defenses.

Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in occupied Kherson Oblast. Generally reliable Russian milbloggers have consistently claimed since August 30 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River northwest of Pidstepne and in the Antonivsky Bridge area.[22] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have been able to transfer supplies and personnel to positions on the left bank during the past week.[23] Another milblogger claimed that units of mobilized personnel and volunteers are defending in the Kherson direction after unspecified Airborne (VDV) elements departed for Zaporizhia Oblast.[24] The milblogger is likely referring to elements of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division, which ISW observed deploying from the Kherson direction to the Robotyne area in Zaporizhia Oblast in late August.[25] The Kherson Oblast area is likely relatively poorly defended if the milblogger’s claims of mobilized personnel and volunteers replacing VDV elements are true.

This says Russia has now lost a total of 40 Ka-52 attack helicopters since February 2022.

This is a lot of mines: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1698643510860169599

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks

On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiff

warontherocks.com

Long, but great read from Kofman and Lee on the current state of the war. Highly recommend.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's

By some estimates, 86% of those who have left Russia are under the age of 45, and 80% have a college education.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Apparently a photo of General Surovikin walking the streets of Moscow: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1698719826687000660

Some info here on the situation around Robotyne from a soldier on the ground there: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1698714674043269418

This was also a long, but very thorough report from the guys at RUSI:

Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive

Russian defences and military adaptations pose challenges for Ukraine's 2023 offensive.

rusi.org

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1698712939056763390

Chinese lenders have stepped in to extend billions of dollars to Russian banks as western institutions pulled back their operations in the country during the first year of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Kim Jong-un and Putin Plan to Meet in Russia to Discuss Weapons

Russia seeks more weaponry for its war in Ukraine, and a North Korean delegation recently traveled to Russia by train to plan for Mr. Kim’s visit this month, officials say.

www.nytimes.com

Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, plans to travel to Russia this month to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss the possibility of supplying Russia with more weaponry for its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation, according to American and allied officials.
In a rare foray from his country, Mr. Kim would travel from Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, probably by armored train, to Vladivostok, on the Pacific Coast of Russia, where he would meet with Mr. Putin, the officials said. Mr. Kim could possibly go to Moscow, though that is not certain.
Mr. Putin wants Mr. Kim to agree to send Russia artillery shells and antitank missiles, and Mr. Kim would like Russia to provide North Korea with advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, the officials said. Mr. Kim is also seeking food aid for his impoverished nation.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/05/world/russia-ukraine-news#battlefield-update-some-ukrainian-forces-have-reached-another-russian-defensive-line-in-the-south-analysts-say

THE BATTLE: Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched in early June, aims to reclaim land in the south and east of the country. Its goal in the south is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge through Russian-occupied territory, and its main effort so far has been in the direction of the city of Melitopol. Last week, Ukrainian forces said that they had retaken the village of Robotyne, breaching the first of several tiers of formidable defenses that Russia has built in the south, and that they were moving toward another defensive line.
THE LATEST: Military analysts say that in recent days Ukrainian forces have been battling to break through the next Russian defensive line near the village of Verbove, nine miles east of Robotyne. Groups that study open-source information on the war say that Ukrainian forces have cleared some Russian entrenchments there, although it is unclear if they have retaken and secured territory in the area.
The Black Bird Group, a volunteer organization that analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said on Monday that Ukrainian forces had reached Russian infantry fighting positions in the outskirts of Verbove, meaning they had made it past some anti-tank ditches and obstacles.
Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army in the south, told national television that the Russian trenches and dugouts that Kyiv’s forces were now encountering were “not as strong” as on the first line of defense. But he added that Russian minefields would complicate Ukraine’s push forward, and military analysts have suggested that Moscow has reinforced its defenses south of Robotyne with more troops.
WHY IT MATTERS: The retaking of Robotyne marked a significant moment in Ukraine’s efforts to sever Moscow’s supply lines to occupied Crimea. Its push from Robotyne east to Verbove is aimed at widening the breach that its forces have created in Russia’s layers of defenses, military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee wrote in a paper published on Monday. Expanding that breach is crucial because “a narrow advance could leave its forces vulnerable to counterattacks on the flanks,” they said.
Widening and securing that gap would also allow Ukrainian forces to bring in more equipment and personnel to support their advance south. A strategic target in this push appears to be the city of Tokmak, a road-and-rail hub about 15 miles south of Robotyne.
To reach Tokmak, Ukrainian forces would have to fully break through the defenses around Verbove and then breach additional layers. This suggests a slow and exhausting fight that could take several more months, with a likelihood of mounting casualties on both sides.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-4-2023

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced to tree-line positions that are east of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are a part of a tri-layered defense immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian light infantry has also advanced further into a series of prepared Russian defensive positions along the road that runs northwest into Verbove.[2] Other geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Russian defensive positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).[3] Ukrainian forces are widening the breach they have already made in one Russian defensive layer and are reportedly maneuvering more equipment and personnel into tactical rear areas of this layer.[4] Ukrainian forces appear to be making gains in the immediate vicinity of the not-yet-breached Russian defensive layer that runs northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) with infantry assaults and heavy artillery fire on Russian positions further into and south of this layer.[5] The deployment of Ukrainian heavy equipment and more substantial forces to these areas than ISW has so far observed would indicate both a breach of this Russian defensive layer and an effort to widen that breach.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

I’m sorry, I haven’t kept up with this war in months. Can someone tell me if there is a clear “winning” team at the moment? Is it full fledged attack from Russia or have things slowed down?

 

[themeistersinger]

The West’s Reliance on Russian Nuclear Fuel Funds Moscow’s War - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The world is witnessing the unprecedented spectacle of a civilian atomic energy station being occupied by a foreign invader.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Dezbelief]

I’m sorry, I haven’t kept up with this war in months. Can someone tell me if there is a clear “winning” team at the moment? Is it full fledged attack from Russia or have things slowed down?

There is no winning team currently, deaths and amputations are mounting on each side. Russia is daily bombing civilians far from the front lines. The Russian soldiers are dug in and not advancing much but Ukrainian civilians face the constant possibility of drone/ICBM attack.

 

[tri-man 47]

Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's

By some estimates, 86% of those who have left Russia are under the age of 45, and 80% have a college education.

www.businessinsider.com

Russia gets any weaker, they might have to join the B1G conference.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Inside Ukraine’s assassination programme

Its agents have become expert in dark revenge. But some worry a clear strategy is absent

www.economist.com

In modern Ukraine, assassinations date back to at least 2015, when its domestic security service (SBU) created a new body after Russia had seized Crimea and the eastern Donbas region. The elite fifth counter-intelligence directorate started life as a saboteur force in response to the invasion. It later came to focus on what is euphemistically called “wet work”.
Valentin Nalivaychenko, who headed the SBU at the time, says the switch came about when Ukraine’s then leaders decided that a policy of imprisoning collaborators was not enough. Prisons were overflowing, but few were deterred. “We reluctantly came to the conclusion that we needed to eliminate people,” he says. A former officer of the directorate describes it in similar terms. “We needed to bring war to them.” In 2015 and 2016 the directorate was linked to the assassinations of key Russian-backed commanders in the Donbas; Mikhail Tolstykh, aka “Givi”, killed in a rocket attack; Arsen Pavlov, aka “Motorola”, blown up in a lift; Alexander Zakharchenko, blown up in a restaurant (pictured).
Intelligence insiders say the SBU’s fifth directorate is playing a central role in counter-Russia operations. The SBU’s relative size and budget—five times bigger than HUR’s—mean it has been most able to pull off the most sophisticated jobs, for example bombing the Kerch bridge, linking Russia to Crimea, in October 2022. Others, though, emphasise the role of HUR, with its underground networks and increased wartime prominence. “We are mostly the white-collar guys,” insists an SBU source. Another increasingly important player in occupied Ukraine is the Special Operations Forces (SSO). This is a relatively new group that co-ordinates Rukh Opory (Resistance Movement), Ukraine’s partisans. The operation in Kharkiv, for example, was the SSO’s. Denys Yaroslavsky, an officer in the SSO, says the service is now pushing for more powers to сonduct operations within Russia itself. That is not universally welcomed elsewhere in Ukraine’s intelligence community.
Ukraine’s president is understood to authorise the most controversial operations, though other decisions are delegated. A high-level government source with knowledge of the work declines to discuss the details: “It’s important not to comment or even think about such operations.” But he says that Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a clear order to avoid collateral damage among civilians. “The president communicates this instruction to people formally, and, on occasion, by shouting at them.” Ukraine had to choose its targets carefully, the source adds; it might “not always” have done so.
Ukraine’s leadership came under particular scrutiny in October, when the New York Times reported that the American government was blaming it for a car-bomb that killed Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, a nationalistic philosopher. That sharpened an already-lively internal debate within Ukrainian intelligence. It was unclear if Ms Dugina was meant to die; some reports suggest she had switched cars with her father.
But a subsequent string of operations targeting mid-level propagandists showed a trend that few of the insiders interviewed for this article were happy with. “These are marginal figures,” says one source in SBU counter-intelligence. “It makes me uncomfortable.” The former SBU fifth-directorate officer suggests the operations were designed to impress the president rather than bring victory any closer. “Clowns, prostitutes and jokers are a constant around the Russian government,” he says. “Kill one of them, and another will appear in their place.”

The former spy says he is concerned that Ukraine’s assassination campaign is driven by impulse rather than logic. Some of the killings have a useful psychological role, he says: to raise the cost of war crimes and the spirits of ordinary Ukrainians. This was “certainly” the case with Stanislav Rzhitsky, a former submarine commander believed to have fired the missiles that killed 38 Ukrainians in Vinnytsia in July 2022. He was shot dead a year later while jogging in a park in Krasnodar, in Russia. But other operations suggested an absence of strategy. They risked exposing sources, methods and the extent of Ukrainian infiltration into Russia: “Our security services shouldn’t do things just because they can.”
Andriy Yusov, a military-intelligence spokesman, insists Ukraine is avoiding what he called “blind terror”. The aim is “not to frighten the enemy,” he says, but “to force it from occupied Ukrainian lands.” But Ukrainian spies would continue to “identify and take advantage of Russian psychology and vulnerabilities” wherever they found them.
Of course, the converse is also true. The infiltration of Ukraine’s security services by Russian agents remains a big issue. In the estimation of some insiders, it is the largest single barrier to any attempts to create a Ukrainian Mossad. The former head of SBU’s internal security has fled Ukraine under a cloud of suspicion, and is being investigated for treason in absentia. Trust remains an issue in the service, with all but the least sensitive operations conducted in small groups. “People are always our weakest link,” says the SBU counter-intelligence source. “They are by far the most slippery part of our calculations.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

WSJ News Exclusive | Russian Private Military Companies Move to Take Over Wagner Fighters

In the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, security groups loyal to the Kremlin are beginning to commandeer the Wagner founder’s military units.

www.wsj.com

A number of private military groups with ties to the Kremlin have sent soldiers to fight in Ukraine in recent months, often as a way of currying favor with Putin. They include groups founded by intelligence officers, financed by oligarchs close to Putin and controlled by state companies.
One of those companies, Redut, is now recruiting Wagner soldiers who fought in Ukraine, according to one person close to Russia’s Defense Ministry. The ministry and the Kremlin didn’t return requests for comment.
Redut, a security contractor for Russian companies operating in the Middle East, was founded by former Russian paratroopers and officers in military intelligence in 2008.
The U.S. government, which sanctioned the group in February, says Redut still has ties to Russian military intelligence.
Redut is financed by Gennady Timchenko, an oligarch with close ties to Putin, according to testimony a Wagner defector gave to the British Parliament in July. Timchenko didn’t return requests for comment. The defector told U.K. lawmakers that Redut’s fighters deployed in Syria receive munitions from the Russian army in the Middle East nation.
Redut is acting as a recruitment vehicle for the Defense Ministry to attract former Wagner fighters who wouldn’t willingly sign contracts with the regular army on account of its past hostility with Wagner, according to the person close to Russia’s defense ministry. Prigozhin promised to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during his short-lived armed march on Moscow in June.
“The Ministry of Defense is using every opportunity to attract people into its ranks,” said Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

Following the mutiny, some senior commanders abandoned Wagner to join Redut. Telegram channels close to Wagner have said a former Wagner officer is overseeing the recruitment effort for Redut.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said in July that it had taken possession of hundreds of tanks, rocket launchers and artillery pieces from Wagner after Prigozhin’s failed mutiny. Russian military units have also taken over Wagner’s positions and bases in east Ukraine.
An official in Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said that many Wagner members who fought in Ukraine have been torn over whether to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry.
He also said the Wagner fighters who have joined private military groups have been spread across the front lines so that those who backed Prigozhin’s mutiny are never concentrated in one unit.
He said that, in some cases, former Wagner soldiers can serve under their former commanders but as part of a private military group.

Redut and Convoy, another mercenary group with ties to the Defense Ministry and the Kremlin, are jockeying to replace Wagner in its operations abroad, according to African and Western security officials and Russian outlets.
Redut is openly trying to poach Wagner fighters eager to go to Africa. “Wagner is in the past,” says one advertisement posted on VKontakte, the Russian equivalent to Facebook, on Aug 15. “If you are really interested in real work in Africa, then the Ministry of Defense and the Redut PMC are your choice!” Redut didn’t return a request for comment.
Some of Prigozhin’s fighters have joined Convoy, although it hasn’t actively tried to poach them, the group’s deputy commander Vasily Yashchik said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Convoy is led by Konstantin Pikalov who previously ran Wagner’s African military operations before breaking with Prigozhin. The European Union sanctioned Pikalov in February and has said he planned the murder of three Russian journalists in the Central African Republic in July 2018.
Just before Prigozhin’s death, Pikalov said Convoy would operate in eight African countries, without naming them. “We will give African military personnel new weapons and show them how to use them,” he told Russian investigative website iStories.

Elsewhere, on the day before Prigozhin died, Russia’s deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov landed in Libya—which was Wagner’s first foray into Africa—and met warlord Khalifa Haftar, according to a Libyan official and a security contractor briefed on the meeting.
Yevkurov told him another private military company would take over Wagner’s units there, according to Libyans briefed on the meeting. A private military group would pay the soldiers, but would be tightly controlled by officers Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU, sent to Libya for that purpose, they said.
These people said Pikalov was present during the trip and his firm is the top contender to replace Wagner in the North African nation.
Meanwhile, in the Central African Republic, Russia is set to send another private military group to replace Wagner, said Fidele Gouandjika, a presidential security adviser in the African country, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
European security officials say members of the Russian military have also appeared in Bangui in the Central African Republic, to oversee the transition of Wagner units to a private military group. It wasn’t clear which group would receive the Wagner units.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1699117421901001134

#Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 12.000 vehicles and pieces of heavy weaponry since it began its invasion of #Ukraine on February 24, 2022

Ukraine war latest: Russia using car tyres to protect its bomber planes; Wagner Group set to be declared terrorist organisation in UK

Russia appears to have adopted a new approach to protecting its warplanes - using car tyres. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Wagner Group is set to be officially declared a terrorist organisation - with an order set to be presented to parliament tomorrow.

news.sky.com

Russia is burning through shells "at an absolutely phenomenal rate" and Vladimir Putin is "desperate" for more weapons, a former diplomat has said.

Speaking to Sky News about the alleged upcoming meeting between Kim Jong Un and Mr Putin, John Everard, former British ambassador to North Korea, said Russian troops are using shells "far faster than [Russia] can produce themselves".

He said the Russian president would not be "doing himself any favours" domestically by going "cap in hand" to Mr Kim, as North Korea was traditionally "a bit of a joke" in the former Soviet Union.

Asked what North Korea stands to gain from the meeting, Mr Everard said its leader will likely demand "a lot of" Russian grain and oil.

But he added that more worryingly, there is evidence North Koreans are using Russian blueprints to "advance their weapons programmes" despite denials by both countries of any collaboration.

Mr Kim will likely "take advantage" of the fact Russia is "desperate" for shells, Mr Everard added.

On the veracity of the reports that the Russian president and his North Korean counterpart are to meet, he said he had spoken to several experts who said the report "doesn't look or feel right".

"They think it may be a dud story," Mr Everard said, adding that another "curiosity" is that North Koreans are "obsessed with protocol" - and it's currently Mr Putin's turn to head to North Korea.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1699177997444456553

^Not sure how you negotiate there.

Cool thread with graphics: https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1699175876091330899

Terrain analysis

Recent Russian reports claim that Russian forces fell back to dominant heights around Robotyne.

The following 3D visualization seeks to visualize those heights.

This is a digital elevation model enriched with ISW map data.

Notes & important caveats below.

Thread on the Romanian drone recent incident. Another thread about the same incident.

German arms maker looking to ramp up production of IRIS-T – DW – 09/05/2023

p.dw.com

German arms manufacturer, Diehl Defence, said it was aiming to increase the production of its IRIS-T air defense system amid growing demand due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The company's chief program officer Harald Buschek said the company planned on building eight weapons systems in 2025, which is up from the three to four expected to be built this year.

Buschek told reporters in Todendorf in northern Germany, that missile production was being tripled this year and would be increased next year with the production of 400 to 500 missiles from 2024.

Germany has already supplied two IRIS-T units to Ukraine, where they are being used to protect Kyiv from Russian missile attacks.

Berlin has pledged to supply another six IRIS-T weapons systems to Kyiv Ukraine, with expected delivery of the first of six systems for its own air force in October 2024.

More Russian disinformation in Germany since Ukraine invasion: spy agency – DW – 09/05/2023

p.dw.com

Russia has been conducting disinformation campaigns in Germany to an increasing extent since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, the German domestic intelligence agency (the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz) said on Tuesday.

Moscow's activities in information spaces such as social media had changed radically since February last year, Bodo Becker, a counterespionage expert for the agency said. "Its approach has become evidently more confrontational and more aggressive as a whole," he said.

The content and tone of the disinformation was being adapted flexibly to the Russian military campaign and to the German and global debates, according to Becker. Russian disinformation was aimed internally at maintaining President Vladimir Putin in power, and externally at influencing public opinion abroad.

"In Germany, the aim is to undermine the population's confidence in politics, administration and in the free media," he said. "In the same way, our alliances and common values with the EU and with NATO are to be discredited and weakened," Becker said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Prigozhin’s Assassination Was Business, Not Revenge

The Wagner chief broke the deal struck with Putin for his survival.

foreignpolicy.com

Interesting read

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1699175810945450050

Ukrainian servicemen from the "Da Vinci Wolves" Battalion showcase a domestic-produced unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), unofficially called "Dr. Death." It's equipped with a "Saber" combat module with a 7.62mm machine gun, which is mounted on the chassis named "Lynx." You can watch full video material here: https://youtu.be/CFxAr7hIvOU?si=0PFbix8DbgpVSNVR