*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

[FarFromHome]

When you invade a country and then have to pull your troops back to protect your own country that's not good.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

When you invade a country and then have to pull your troops back to protect your own country that's not good.

Watching the Russian try to spin all this when they literally said they'd take Kiev in 3 days 900 days ago is pretty funny.

 

[Chadstroma]

Poland just signed a deal to acquire 96 AH-64E Apache's. Poland is just looking at Russia hoping a mutha would.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Plotted Incursion to Throw Kremlin Off Balance

Ukraine had been weighing several possibilities for an attack that would shock the leadership in Moscow and put President Vladimir Putin on the backfoot before storming across the border last week, according to a Western official familiar with the planning.
With Ukraine’s military on the defensive and Kremlin forces securing marginal gains this year, a cross-border attack had been weighed for some time before the surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region a week ago, the official said on condition of anonymity.

While President Joe Biden’s administration and the European Union have given their blessing as the first military presence on Russian soil since World War II unfolds, NATO allies have so far withheld judgment. The leadership in Kyiv didn’t share specific information on the Kursk effort until it was well underway, according to a Western intelligence official who declined to be identified.
NATO allies don’t harbor reservations on the incursion, though consider it unlikely that Ukrainian forces will be able to hold Russian territory — even if it takes weeks for Moscow to force them out of Kursk, the official said. The action is at least crucial to show that Kyiv can challenge the Kremlin, according to a NATO official familiar with briefings on the Kursk action.

Ukrainian Soldiers Describe Rapid Offensive Across Border as Russians Fled

It was in darkness around 3 a.m. when the Ukrainian platoon encountered the most serious obstacle to their audacious invasion of Russia last week: a row of concrete pyramids designed to obstruct tanks.
They quickly dispatched one of the pyramids with three tank rounds, then poured through the gap in their armored vehicles. The Russian enemy, largely conscripts, mostly fled or surrendered as they were quickly overwhelmed.
“In two-and-a-half years Russia built no defense line,” said the Ukrainian platoon’s 33-year-old commander, who goes by the call sign Yanyk.

For now, Russia is struggling to contain Ukrainian advances. But some Ukrainian soldiers waiting to join the battle from Sumy, the Ukrainian regional capital on the border, said they had been pulled from already threadbare units on the eastern front in Ukraine, suggesting Kyiv was already facing challenges finding fresh troops to maintain momentum.
Still, images of Ukrainian soldiers like Yanyk and his comrades charging through Russian territory and tearing down Russian flags from village halls have raised morale among Kyiv’s beleaguered army and embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Yanyk was in a village near the Russian border Monday, preparing to return to the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha about 7 miles inside Russia. Videos he posted online from his forays into Russia show Yanyk driving along dark, deserted roads, stopping to take the signs of conquered villages as trophies. “Now we’re going to be hanging out on your land just like you are on ours,” he says in one of the videos.

Ukraine’s ultimate plans are unclear. But whether Kyiv seeks to expand its incursion or cling on to what it already has, it will face trade-offs, said David Blagden, senior lecturer in international security at the University of Exeter in the U.K.
“The personnel, equipment and logistics demands of attempting to sustain the incursion then hold the taken territory will be significant, especially as supply lines lengthen,” Blagden said in emailed comments.
In a village near the Russian border, two Ukrainian soldiers awaiting orders to join the battle in Kursk said they had just arrived from the front line near Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces are under heavy pressure. “We came to help,” said one of them.
Another soldier said he was surprised to learn he was being transferred to the Sumy border region as his unit was so short of men that infantry spent as long as 45 days straight in a trench. The 25-year-old had been stationed in Chasiv Yar, one of the hottest spots on the front line, until a week before the incursion.
There is a higher concentration of troops in Kursk, he said, where he is helping shore up the rear as Ukrainian forces push further forward. Compared with the east, the skies are less saturated with drones that make concealing movement practically impossible, he said.
His unit is facing some problems, however. Its Soviet-designed automatic grenade launcher proved ill-suited to the fluid battles in Kursk because it is difficult to mount.
Others had been shifted to the Sumy region well in advance. The deputy commander of a squad that is taking part in the offensive said his unit had been sent there about two months ago but only found out about the Kursk offensive shortly before it got under way.
“Everybody is more or less happy with how it’s going,” said the soldier, who goes by the call sign Pokemon.

He said he had anticipated stiffer resistance. “They were mainly kids doing their mandatory service,” he said of the soldiers they encountered. His squad took three prisoners, the youngest of them age 19.
The incursion might strengthen Ukraine’s hand, giving Kyiv something to trade with Russia, Pokemon said. Despite the gains, he cautioned that keeping Ukrainian units in Russia properly supplied would be difficult. “The logistics needs to be very well thought through,” he said.
Another soldier said he hoped the offensive would expedite an end to the war. He had yet to join the battle, but said other members of his brigade had taken four prisoners from an artillery unit. Two others were killed and the rest ran away.
“This is the first time Russia has had war on its territory since World War II,” he said. “Everybody was afraid of Russia, but we are showing there is nothing to be afraid of.”

 

[massraider]

I have no idea if this is the reason, but if you need to protect your own land, I assume you cannot be as aggressively blowing up homes and hospitals in other countries.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

EDF officer: I will be observing closely where Ukraine digs in in Kursk

The ongoing Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk oblast, now in its second week, not only took Russia by surprise but did so for the Ukrainian side too, Estonian Defense Forces ops department deputy commander Lieutenant Colonel Toomas Väli said.

Despite the successes, logistical challenges will likely force the Ukrainians to dig in soon, he added.

Väli said that at present it is difficult to assess how far the Ukrainian army has made an incursion into Russian territory.

Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Lt Col. Väli said: "The news from Kursk oblast is so confusing.

"Reports indicate that 11 settlements have been captured or that incursions have covered approximately 45 square kilometers."

"At the same time, a couple of days later, and there's talk of 250 square kilometers. What the Ukrainians actually have control of is a highly debated topic among war bloggers," Väli went on.

Väli stressed that even if a Ukrainian reconnaissance group has moved 45 kilometers northwards into Russian territory, this need not necessarily mean that the Ukrainians are fully in control of that area.

Väli said: "Now comes an interesting observation. If we speak generally, then the Ukrainians have been successful in surprising the Russian Federation already twice. Russia's armed forces have not been able to counter these movementss. Meanwhile, the Russian offensive in Donetsk is still in progress."

"The principal strike remains directed toward Donetsk, specifically towards Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk. The Russians still have 17 kilometers to go to reach the latter. By comparison, Ukraine has achieved in Kursk within the first few days what the Russians have taken half a year to accomplish in Donetsk, were they have advance just 500 meters a day," Väli continued.

Russia steps up assaults on Pokrovsk front in Ukraine's east

Russian forces stepped up their attacks on the Pokrovsk front in eastern Ukraine over the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the largest number of battles in the area in a single day in a week.
The increase in fighting comes after Ukraine mounted a surprise cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk regionin what some military analysts see as an attempt to divert Russian forces from their main offensives in the east.

Ukraine says it is still advancing in Russia's Kursk region

Russian forces have been trying to advance for months on multiple fronts in the Donetsk region, taking advantage of their greater troop numbers to steadily inch forward towards cities like the Kyiv-held logistics hub of Pokrovsk.
For now, there is no sign of a letup for Ukraine in the east where Kyiv's military said earlier it had recorded the largest number of battles with Russian forces on the Pokrovsk front in a single day since before the Kursk incursion.
Ukrainian military spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy told Reuters they had noted a movement of Russian troops from Ukraine's south to other areas, likely including Kursk, this week.
But he said the number of attacks had not reduced as a result and that it was too early to draw conclusions.
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, said that Russia had mostly relied on nearby military units to try to push back Ukrainian forces so far.
"Russians should have enough reserves, so that they should not be forced to weaken the "Centre" group of forces which is currently pressuring the Ukrainian lines near Toretsk and Pokrovsk," he said.

Putin pulls units out of Ukraine to defend Russia, Kyiv says

“Russia has relocated some of its units from both Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine’s south,” Dmytro Lykhoviy, a Ukrainian army spokesman, told POLITICO.

The Kremlin initially attacked the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of southern Ukraine in the first days of Putin’s full-scale invasion in early 2022. POLITICO was unable to independently confirm how many Russian troops have been redeployed back across the border, though Lykhoviy said it was a “relatively small” number of units.

To try to counter Ukrainian gains, Russian troops have, however, continued their offensive on Pokrovsk and elsewhere in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, in one of the hottest spots on the war front where Russia is gaining ground.

But Lykhoviy added on Ukrainian TV that Russia has been relocating personnel to “other directions, including to Kursk.”

But while withdrawing some units for Kursk, Russian forces have actively attacked and initiated fights across the war front in Ukraine, including in the south from where troops were pulled out.

“However, Russians have accumulated a large number of personnel, in particular in the Zaporizhzhia region, and the number of units they are redeploying is relatively small,” Lykhoviy said on Ukrainian TV.

And they indeed initiated several attacks on Kherson the night they withdrew some forces. “We must still understand whether it is a smokescreen activity,” Lykhoviy added.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front. According to the map, Russian forces are less than 15 kilometers from the city.
Russia also made incremental gains on the Kupiansk front and seized a foothold in Kostyantynivka, north east of Vuhledar.

x.com

x.com

"The Telegraph understands that the UK Government has not given Ukraine approval to use Storm Shadow missiles as part of its Kursk offensive.
'There has been no change,' a government source said."

Zelensky: Let me use British missiles to end Putin’s rule

Ukrainian president speaks out as his forces continue cross-border push into Russia

telegraph.co.uk

x.com

x.com

The first footage of Ukrainian Air Force airstrikes in support of the Kursk offensive has emerged.

Seen here, a Ukrainian fighter drops a pair of US-supplied JDAM-ERs on Russian positions in Tetkino, conducting an effective tactical strike into Russia.

Video: https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1823311156427243713

There’s an Interesting opinion piece today in one of the (ultra) pro-Kremlin papers. It offers clues to how life inside Russia may change as a result of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive.

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian soldiers posted this video from what appears to be the Plan Street in the village of Plekhovo in Kursk region — with one of the locals greeting them with Slava Ukraini, or Glory to Ukraine. Not likely to be a widely shared sentiment, but it happened.

x.com

x.com

WARNING: Graphic content.

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) destroy a Russian truck and kill a number of Russian soldiers in an ambush in Kursk Oblast.

One of the Ukrainian SOF operators can be seen hitting the truck with a US-made M72 LAW portable anti-armor weapon, which causes its destruction.

Russian servicemen killed during this engagement appeared to be rather well-equipped; certainly not conscripts.

x.com

x.com

Two MIA posts from the 200th Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 08275) that indicate elements are redeployed to Kursk

x.com

x.com

According to ASTRA, the Russian truck column destroyed near Rylsk on the night of Aug 8/9 included troops from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and the recently formed 22nd Motor Rifle Regiment (72nd Motor Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps). The 22nd was known to be deployed in the Kharkiv direction, and part of the 810th was reported to be there as well.

 

[FarFromHome]

Poland just signed a deal to acquire 96 AH-64E Apache's. Poland is just looking at Russia hoping a mutha would.

On a personal note. I was briefly attached to an Apache Squadron in Iraq. No better "hell ya" feeling than watching 6 of those things fly over you. So bad a**

 

[Chadstroma]

I missed that Poland also bought a ton of IM-120C AMRAAM's and 48 Patriot Launchers. Once they have everything that they have been grabbing on their buying spree, they will be able to roll Russia by themselves.

 

[Dezbelief]

A Russian lawmaker says the military knew Ukraine was planning to hit Kursk, but everyone was told 'not to panic' because 'those above know better'

"But from the top came the order not to panic and that those above know better," Andrey Gurulyov, a retired major general, said.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine caught the world by surprise when it attacked Russia's Kursk region last week, but a Russian lawmaker said the country's military knew about the planned incursion a month before it happened.

"But from the top came the order not to panic, and that those above know better," Andrey Gurulyov, a member of the State Duma and retired major general, told the military expert Vladislav Shurygin in a televised interview that aired on August 8, according to a translation by The New York Times.

Russia's military, Gurulyov said, was told about Ukraine's plans for Kursk about a month ago.

The former army officer said military leadership received an intelligence report about Ukraine's impending attack

 

[WVU Alum]

Don’t forget, Russia subscribes to the scorched earth defense. They have willingly torched their own lands during the two modern(ish) invasions of their country, Napoleon and Hitler. I don’t think that they will have any qualms bombing the **** out of their own territory.

 

[culdeus]

Don’t forget, Russia subscribes to the scorched earth defense. They have willingly torched their own lands during the two modern(ish) invasions of their country, Napoleon and Hitler. I don’t think that they will have any qualms bombing the **** out of their own territory.

Seems to be starting

 

[FarFromHome]

How funny would it be if in two years the country of Ukraine gained land and Russia lost land as a conclusion of the war?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Deception and a Gamble: How Ukrainian Troops Invaded Russia

Ukraine shuffled parts of brigades into the Sumy area under the pretenses of training and picking up new equipment, said one brigade’s deputy commander, Lt. Col. Artem, who asked to be identified only by his first name and rank, in keeping with military protocol.
Heavy weaponry moved in. Soldiers piled into houses. The Ukrainians hid in plain sight. Officers were told to avoid wearing military uniforms when entering towns and cities so they didn’t draw attention, said one officer, who identified himself by his call sign, “Tykhyi,” in keeping with military protocol.
Some residents noticed the buildup. “Maybe they were reinforcing the border, or maybe building something?” said Elena Sima, the head of the Yunakivka district, about five miles from the border. “Everybody was guessing.”
In the village of Khotyn, the rumble of heavy, tracked vehicles woke up Natalya Vyalina, a 44-year-old kindergarten teacher, several nights in a row. She assumed others heard it, too. But in the village, she said, “nobody said anything.”
Even within the army, many were kept in the dark. Tykhyi — which means “quiet one” in Ukrainian — said some units were told of their mission only at the last moment.
On Aug. 3, Colonel Artem said, his brigade commander summoned senior officers to a meeting on the side of a forest road to announce the mission’s goals. To divert Russian troops to help fellow soldiers fighting in the eastern Donbas region. To push Russian artillery out of range of Sumy. To demoralize the Russians by showing their intelligence and planning failures.

The American officials said they were surprised at how well the operation has gone so far, but were skeptical that the Ukrainians could hold onto their gains. And in making the incursion, they said, Ukraine has created new vulnerabilities along the front where its forces are already stretched thin.

x.com

twitter.com

I was in #Sumy on Monday for @zeit and spoke to soldiers from several brigades about their activities in #Kursk region. Here are some insights. 1/n
First of all: Commanders don’t comment. Press officers reject requests. The soldiers I spoke to asked to only share limited information with the public. They themselves don’t know the aims of this offensive or what they will be required to do in a week from now. 2/n
Their confidence was striking and stood in stark contrast to other parts of the frontline. I had been in Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia region just a week ago. The mood there has shifted, soldiers told me about new recruits going AWOL or dying within a few days. 3/n
The men I talked to in Sumy are part of mobile groups/units, experienced in offensive actions and quick maneuvers. Some of them arrived to prepare the offensive, without realising what they were doing. "Until the last moment, I was sure we were defending“, one of them said. 4/n
This is only one of the many indications of how carefully this offense was planned. 5/n
Out of the 3 scenarios that military experts consider realistic (expanding further, holding, retreating completely), all men I spoke to were in clear favor of the 1st one: Expanding a bit more, then holding. One said: It is an amazing feeling to finally have enough munition. 6/n
Working on Russian territory brings new challenges, especially in the sphere of communication. Starlink doesn’t work. The Ukrainians can use radios (or even Russian sim cards), but it makes them trackable. This leads to a limited knowledge of the territory ahead. 7/n
Now logistics is key. If the aim is to hold territory, Ukrainian soldiers need to set up supply lines and ensure safe ways for the evacuation of material & men. Currently, the problems with communication and surveillance are standing in the way. 8/n
For more details, read our brief dispatch in tomorrow's @DIEZEIT. 9/9

Ukraine’s incursion: Where does it go from here?

"The most striking thing about this incursion," said a senior British military source who asked not to be named, "is how well the Ukrainians mastered combined arms warfare, deploying everything from air defence to electronic warfare as well as armour and infantry. It’s impressive."

So where does Ukraine’s foray into Russia go from here?
There will be those on the more cautious end of the spectrum who will argue that Ukraine has already made its point, that Putin’s war of choice must now bring some pain to Russians, that despite recent setbacks on the battlefield in the Donbas, Ukraine has shown itself capable of mounting a sophisticated, combined arms assault using all the elements of modern warfare.
In other words, withdraw now with honour, having given the Kremlin a bloody nose, before Russia brings in enough forces to kill or capture the invading Ukrainians.
But withdrawal would negate two of the apparent objectives of Ukraine’s incursion, namely to put enough pressure on Russia that it is forced to divert some of its own troops in the Donbas and secondly to hold enough Russian territory to use as a bargaining chip in any future peace negotiations.
"If Kyiv holds Russian territory," says Exeter University’s Dr David Blagden, "it can bargain for the return of its own territory from a position of greater strength. Kyiv will have also sought to damage the impression of the all-powerful Putin regime among Russians and to encourage the Kremlin to seek a settlement lest they jeopardise their hold on power."

x.com

twitter.com

New: Ukraine has conducted the “biggest attack” on Russian airfields since the war began, with drones targeting four Russian airfields overnight, a source at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN. The SBU source told CNN, the drones attack was a joint operation between SBU, AirForce, Special Forces, UAV Center of Ukrainian Armed Forces the Defense intelligence. They also said airfields in Russia’s Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka and Borisoglebsk were targeted.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

What next after Ukraine’s shock invasion of Russia?

Russia’s failure to mount a rapid counter-attack puzzles some Ukrainian officers. Rather than redeploying troops from the Donbas to Kursk, the Kremlin may be planning an asymmetrical response, such as a rocket barrage against the government quarter in Kyiv. So far Mr Putin faces no great pressure from public opinion at home: Russians are aware of the incursion, but the state-controlled media have reported on Russian forces’ supposedly successful resistance, and on the humanitarian situation. Apart from a few articles in relatively independent news sources, news of the chaos has not reached most citizens.

Assuming the Russians start deploying more capable forces to the area, the Ukrainians will have three options, says Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and strategist. The maximalist approach would be to try to hold the territory it has seized—or even push further—in order to draw more Russian troops from Ukraine and provide a bargaining chip in any future negotiations. But this is risky, Mr Ryan points out. It would be hard for Ukraine to maintain electronic-warfare and air-defence coverage for even well dug-in troops across such a wide salient. The Ukrainians know how lethal Russian glide bombs are against fixed positions. Ukraine would have to divert resources from the front line inside its own territory, and its forces’ losses in Kursk would undermine its positive story.
A second option would be to pull back to the border in good order, preserving troops and equipment for attempts to reclaim Ukrainian territory next year. Ukraine would have shown that it can take the war to Russia and undermined the narrative of a grinding, inevitable Russian victory, which has developed traction among Ukraine’s less resolute allies.
A third option would be to withdraw partially to a more defensible position nearer the Ukrainian border which would require fewer troops and be better supported by artillery and logistics. It would also form a base for further attacks when opportunities arise. A source in Ukraine’s general staff suggests this is the most likely option: some logistics—engineering forces, fuel, field hospitals, food and repair bases—have already been moved several kilometres inside the Russian border.

We entered easily, say Ukrainian troops involved in Russia incursion

Tomash has just returned from Ukraine’s cross-border mission along with his comrade “Accord”, who nonchalantly says it was “cool”.
Their drone unit had spent two days paving the way for the cross border incursion.
“We had orders to come here, but we didn’t know what that meant,” Tomash admits as he pauses for a coffee at a petrol station.
“We suppressed the enemy’s means of communication and surveillance in advance to clear the way.”

The level of activity in the neighbouring Sumy region is something I haven’t seen since the liberations of 2022, when there was a feeling of wind in Ukrainian sails.
It’s undoubtedly a welcome departure from the grinding war of attrition of the last 18 months, but to label it a success or failure would be premature.
The goal of this offensive is unclear, although President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken of targeting sites from which Russia can launch attacks on Ukraine and bringing “a just peace” closer.
But it is evident Kyiv is deploying some of its best troops.
Fit-looking soldiers gather around vehicles that match their muscularity. Most politely decline to talk. Some look exhausted.

The soldiers we speak to confirm that Russian forces have indeed been redeployed from the eastern front line, including the Kharkiv, Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.

Ukrainian forces seek to hold Russian positions after capturing hundreds of troops

In Donetsk region, the Kursk fight has been met with a mix of elation and frustration.
“I’m glad our boys are having success in Kursk,” said a senior Ukrainian officer on the frontline in Donetsk region. “We still have a hot fight here. I hope [our commander-in-chief] Syrsky remembers this.”
Soldiers on the front line said one of the goals of the operation was to force Moscow to divert resources from its offensive in the Donetsk region to Kursk, but there is little sign this has been achieved.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Second Russian region declares state of emergency after Ukraine attack

A state of emergency has been declared in the Russian border region of Belgorod following attacks by Ukrainian forces.
Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the situation was "extremely difficult" due to daily shelling in the region.
"Houses are destroyed, civilians died and were injured," he said.
It follows Ukraine's surprise cross-border attack in Russia's Kursk region last week, leading to mass evacuations and a state of emergency being declared there by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a video on Telegram, Governor Gladkov said he would be appealing to the government to declare an emergency "at the federal level" like in Kursk.

How Ukraine Caught Putin’s Forces Off Guard in Kursk — And Why

A Ukrainian source close to the military with firsthand knowledge of the operation told New Lines that the invading troops were shocked by how many prisoners of war they were able to capture on the Russian side and at the initial ease of their breakthrough across the border.
All of Russia’s legal national boundaries are controlled by the FSB Border Guard, officers of which vanished during the assault. Russian troops — almost all of them conscripts — had no idea their enemy was on the march, according to a senior Western diplomat. “Many just laid down their arms and fled,” said the diplomat, who spoke to New Lines on condition of anonymity. “The initial incursion was mounted with a strike force of only 2,000 or so. They wiped out 20 Russian trucks coming to the rescue.”

Ukraine’s first tactical victory was silence: Not since its successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv in 2022 had it been able to maintain total operational security, abetted by Russian obliviousness. A person close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov “dismissed” warnings from the country’s intelligence services that the Ukrainians were mustering forces near the border by Kursk as early as “two weeks” before the invasion. Putin, moreover, was said to be uninformed about that intelligence, an oversight that typically carries heavy consequences in Moscow.

Lithuanian defense minister claims Russia is moving its troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk

Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas claimed Tuesday that Russia was moving its troops from strategically significant territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast to the southern Russian region of Kursk, where Kyiv says its forces continue to advance after a surprise cross-border incursion last week.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia Withdraws Some Forces From Ukraine in Response to Kursk Invasion

Russia is withdrawing some of its military forces from Ukraine to respond to a Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory, U.S. officials said, the first sign that Kyiv’s incursion is forcing Moscow to rejigger its invasion force.
The officials said the U.S. is still seeking to determine the significance of Russia’s move and didn’t say how many troops the U.S. assesses Russia is shifting. But the new U.S. assessment bolsters claims by Ukrainian officials who said last week’s surprise invasion of Kursk province had drawn Russian forces away from Ukraine, where Moscow’s advantage in manpower and equipment is allowing them to grind forward in several places.

This soldier says, "they are taking more forces from the Kharkiv direction for Kursk" (presumably in comparison to the Pokrovsk direction): https://x.com/francisjfarrell/status/1823672497931182187

From a soldier contact of mine fighting in the Pokrovsk area- feel this pretty much sums up how the effects of Kursk are felt there. This is the morale boost that matters, not everyone else sharing memes from their comfortable homes.

x.com

x.com

Russian forces are rapidly digging a network of trenches in Kursk Oblast, with only one catch:

The trenches are 45km behind the border.

Russian forces have been developing a trench network that, if fallen back to, would cede Ukraine a massive amount of territory.

 

[WVU Alum]

How funny would it be if in two years the country of Ukraine gained land and Russia lost land as a conclusion of the war?

I doubt that they have the manpower to hold any gains for any length of time, unfortunately.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I'm still a bit surprised that Ukraine hasn't had a bigger mobilization.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots

Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, Oleksandr Kamyshin, was in Washington last week to help the country’s state defense company open an office in the United States and to work on a number of joint ventures, including a deal with Northrop Grumman to produce medium-caliber ammunition in Ukraine.
“This year will be the year of land systems as well, unmanned land systems,” Kamyshin said at the opening of the defense office. “We’ll see more of them on the front line. That’s one of the game-changers we expect in the nearest 12 months.”
The point, Kamyshin said, is to get more troops off the front lines. “That’s the main philosophy,” he said. “We count people, and we want our people to be as far from the front line as we can.”
Kamyshin said most of the robots will be produced in Ukraine, not with Western partners, and expects Ukrainian troops to use the machines for all types of missions, including ground combat and medical evacuation. He said in a follow-up interview that the deployment of ground robots to save human lives is a contrast to Russia’s military strategy. “They save machinery. They save everything. But they send people,” he said.

But experts believe the tactical payoff for fielding UGVs at scale could be enormous. “If you are advancing through a breach, and you have concealed enemy firing posts, there is a high probability they would knock out your tanks,” Jack Watling, the senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said in an interview in March. “If the UGVs go first but the tanks are behind them, the enemy may be detected by the UGVs—they may be killed by the UGVs if they don’t destroy them. But if they destroy them, they will reveal their position and be destroyed by the tanks.”

A Baltic diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Western training needed to improve to help Ukrainians fight in combined groups on the battalion level, about 250 to 500 troops in their military, according to U.S. Defense Department estimates. Zelensky has already lowered Ukraine’s conscription age from 27 to 25, but Western officials have urged Ukraine to tap into the country’s 18-to-24 population to fuel next year’s push. And the trainings, which last only about eight to 12 weeks, need to go on longer, the official said, to make Ukrainian troops more effective.
The Ukrainian military will also need to be trained on effectively integrating ground robots, too.
“Last year was the year of the big challenge to produce enough. This year is the year of coordination, integration, and program management,” Kamyshin said. “It’s all about training people, coordinating, and integrating.”

From basement to battlefield: Ukrainian startups create low-cost robots to fight Russia

Struggling with manpower shortages, overwhelming odds and uneven international assistance, Ukraine hopes to find a strategic edge against Russia in an abandoned warehouse or a factory basement.

An ecosystem of laboratories in hundreds of secret workshops is leveraging innovation to create a robot army that Ukraine hopes will kill Russian troops and save its own wounded soldiers and civilians.

Defense startups across Ukraine — about 250 according to industry estimates — are creating the killing machines at secret locations that typically look like rural car repair shops.

Employees at a startup run by entrepreneur Andrii Denysenko can put together an unmanned ground vehicle called the Odyssey in four days at a shed used by the company. Its most important feature is the price tag: $35,000, or roughly 10% of the cost of an imported model.

One of its drones, the car-sized Odyssey, spun on its axis and kicked up dust as it rumbled forward in a cornfield in the north of the country last month.

The 800-kilogram (1,750-pound) prototype that looks like a small, turretless tank with its wheels on tracks can travel up to 30 kilometers (18.5 miles) on one charge of a battery the size of a small beer cooler.

The prototype acts as a rescue-and-supply platform but can be modified to carry a remotely operated heavy machine gun or sling mine-clearing charges.

“Squads of robots … will become logistics devices, tow trucks, minelayers and deminers, as well as self-destructive robots,” a government fundraising page said after the launch of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. “The first robots are already proving their effectiveness on the battlefield.”

I’ll never understand this new age of discussing military tactics in the news

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Updated map showing further Russian gains on the Pokrovsk front and in New York, Donetsk oblast. Russian forces are less than 13 kilometers from Pokrovsk and made small gains in Krasnohorivka.

x.com

x.com

So a couple important things about this:
1) What we’ve seen is Russia only moving very few troops from Ukraine;
2) Units from Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Crimea are not going to give Ukraine the relief it needs from the hottest sectors of the frontline, which are in Donetsk region

x.com

x.com

Yep. Ukrainian troops involved in incursion told me Sunday at the Sumy-Kursk border they were told to hold their ground. And we have Zelensky saying today: "We discussed key issues: security, humanitarian aid, and, if necessary, the establishment of military commandant’s offices."

x.com

twitter.com

Daily Ukraine map thread for Wednesday 14th August 2024

Highlights: Ukrainian forces advance further in Kursk oblast, raising the flag over Vnezapnoe as well as showing increased presence in captured areas

Russia captures Zhelanne near Pokrovsk

x.com

twitter.com

As Ukraine’s operation in Kursk continues, Russian forces are building new defenses deeper within Russian territory.

This map update traces many of these new fortifications using satellite imagery. (1/3)
Here is one example of the new fortifications built by Russian forces in the last week.

This anti-vehicle ditch in Kursk is more than 50 kilometers from the international border with Ukraine. (2/3)

 

[rockaction]

I’ll never understand this new age of discussing military tactics in the news

Because this is a media/PR age where perception is reality. If you are perceived to be winning the war in the hearts of the majority of civilization and more importantly, Western civilization, you are winning the war in actuality.

This is why the “Palestine”/Israel war is so played out through the media. When the backers of one side are running out of funds or the other side needs ammo and funds from another country, good PR is a must. Announcements of plans and other things are, in actuality, not a media nor a leaking problem, but predetermined to bring about a specific result. We also know that simply by the fact of this excursion that plans aren’t really announced but are made in secret and then enacted. There were still members of the media who major in Putin that did not know he was going to start this war until he did.

TL;DR The media landscape is a front in the war. Think of it that way.

 

[culdeus]

Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots

Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, Oleksandr Kamyshin, was in Washington last week to help the country’s state defense company open an office in the United States and to work on a number of joint ventures, including a deal with Northrop Grumman to produce medium-caliber ammunition in Ukraine.
“This year will be the year of land systems as well, unmanned land systems,” Kamyshin said at the opening of the defense office. “We’ll see more of them on the front line. That’s one of the game-changers we expect in the nearest 12 months.”
The point, Kamyshin said, is to get more troops off the front lines. “That’s the main philosophy,” he said. “We count people, and we want our people to be as far from the front line as we can.”
Kamyshin said most of the robots will be produced in Ukraine, not with Western partners, and expects Ukrainian troops to use the machines for all types of missions, including ground combat and medical evacuation. He said in a follow-up interview that the deployment of ground robots to save human lives is a contrast to Russia’s military strategy. “They save machinery. They save everything. But they send people,” he said.

But experts believe the tactical payoff for fielding UGVs at scale could be enormous. “If you are advancing through a breach, and you have concealed enemy firing posts, there is a high probability they would knock out your tanks,” Jack Watling, the senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said in an interview in March. “If the UGVs go first but the tanks are behind them, the enemy may be detected by the UGVs—they may be killed by the UGVs if they don’t destroy them. But if they destroy them, they will reveal their position and be destroyed by the tanks.”

A Baltic diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Western training needed to improve to help Ukrainians fight in combined groups on the battalion level, about 250 to 500 troops in their military, according to U.S. Defense Department estimates. Zelensky has already lowered Ukraine’s conscription age from 27 to 25, but Western officials have urged Ukraine to tap into the country’s 18-to-24 population to fuel next year’s push. And the trainings, which last only about eight to 12 weeks, need to go on longer, the official said, to make Ukrainian troops more effective.
The Ukrainian military will also need to be trained on effectively integrating ground robots, too.
“Last year was the year of the big challenge to produce enough. This year is the year of coordination, integration, and program management,” Kamyshin said. “It’s all about training people, coordinating, and integrating.”

From basement to battlefield: Ukrainian startups create low-cost robots to fight Russia

Struggling with manpower shortages, overwhelming odds and uneven international assistance, Ukraine hopes to find a strategic edge against Russia in an abandoned warehouse or a factory basement.

An ecosystem of laboratories in hundreds of secret workshops is leveraging innovation to create a robot army that Ukraine hopes will kill Russian troops and save its own wounded soldiers and civilians.

Defense startups across Ukraine — about 250 according to industry estimates — are creating the killing machines at secret locations that typically look like rural car repair shops.

Employees at a startup run by entrepreneur Andrii Denysenko can put together an unmanned ground vehicle called the Odyssey in four days at a shed used by the company. Its most important feature is the price tag: $35,000, or roughly 10% of the cost of an imported model.

One of its drones, the car-sized Odyssey, spun on its axis and kicked up dust as it rumbled forward in a cornfield in the north of the country last month.

The 800-kilogram (1,750-pound) prototype that looks like a small, turretless tank with its wheels on tracks can travel up to 30 kilometers (18.5 miles) on one charge of a battery the size of a small beer cooler.

The prototype acts as a rescue-and-supply platform but can be modified to carry a remotely operated heavy machine gun or sling mine-clearing charges.

“Squads of robots … will become logistics devices, tow trucks, minelayers and deminers, as well as self-destructive robots,” a government fundraising page said after the launch of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. “The first robots are already proving their effectiveness on the battlefield.”

I’ll never understand this new age of discussing military tactics in the news

Whatever they know. Russia knows. What isn't great are people live streaming from the field.

 

[FarFromHome]

I’ll never understand this new age of discussing military tactics in the news

Because this is a media/PR age where perception is reality. If you are perceived to be winning the war in the hearts of the majority of civilization and more importantly, Western civilization, you are winning the war in actuality.

This is why the “Palestine”/Israel war is so played out through the media. When the backers of one side are running out of funds or the other side needs ammo and funds from another country, good PR is a must. Announcements of plans and other things are, in actuality, not a media nor a leaking problem, but predetermined to bring about a specific result. We also know that simply by the fact of this excursion that plans aren’t really announced but are made in secret and then enacted. There were still members of the media who major in Putin that did not know he was going to start this war until he did.

TL;DR The media landscape is a front in the war. Think of it that way.

100%. It's the age of the social media war narrative. It drives funds for the proxy war approach. This idea that we aren't at war but the financial costs are like we are at war.


True story. I was at a field artillery headquarters, V Corps, during Iraq war. Geraldo Rivera walked right past all the soldiers that should have stopped him. Handing out candy and just being warm and friendly. He literally got past every checkpoint and arrived within feet of where the artillery war was being actively decided. He was then escorted out. My point is nobody up until that point thought Geraldo being that close to the active war was an issue. That's how these reporters get info. Bottom line. Smile and bring candy. Ha ha

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine reports heavy fighting on eastern front after Russia incursion

Ukraine said there was no sign Russian military pressure was receding along the eastern front inside its borders on Thursday, more than a week after its incursion into Russia, and reported the heaviest fighting in weeks near Pokrovsk.

Serhiy Tsehotskiy, an officer with the 59th Motorized Brigade, said there had been no letup in Russian pressure in the partially-occupied Donetsk region where Russia has concentrated its attacks for months.
"The enemy, despite what is happening on the territory of Russia, is still... keeping the bulk of its troops in this direction and trying to achieve success," Tsehotskiy said on national television.

The head of the Pokrovsk military administration Serhiy Dobriak appealed to locals to evacuate.
"The enemy has come almost right up to the city of Pokrovsk. Just over 10 kilometers from the outskirts of the city," he said on Telegram.

Russian troops intensify activity near Krynky, Ukrainian forces withdraw to new positions, military says

Russian troops have intensified their activity near the village of Krynky in Kherson Oblast, prompting Ukrainian forces to seek new positions, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces, said on Aug. 15.

Ukraine gambled on an incursion deep into Russian territory. The bold move changed the battlefield

“The stretching of the front line for us is also stretching the front line for the enemy,” said the commander of the 14th Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems, who participated in the opening stage of the offensive. “Only we have prepared for this operation in detail. The Russians were not prepared for this operation at all.”

He spoke on condition of anonymity, using only the call sign Charlie, in keeping with the rules of the Ukrainian military.

Forcing Russia to deploy reserves intended for other parts of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line was the minimum aim, said Charlie, the commander. But so far, Moscow’s focus in the Donetsk region has not changed.

Some Ukrainian troops were pulled from those very lines, where manpower shortages were a key factor that contributed to territorial losses this year.

In the strategically significant Pokrovsk area, which is the main thrust of Russia’s offensive effort, soldiers have seen few improvements since the Kursk incursion.

“Nothing has changed,” said a soldier known by the call sign Kyianyn, who also spoke on condition of anonymity due to military protocol. “If anything, I see the increase in Russian offensive actions.”

But the Kursk operation “showed they can’t defend their own territory,” he said. “All of us are inspired here. Many of our soldiers wanted to go to Kursk and push them straight to the Kremlin.”

Targeting Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces, which feeds the Kharkiv front, is a key goal, said Konstantin Mashovets, a Ukrainian military expert. Some Russian units have reportedly moved from Vovchansk in Kharkiv.

As Kyiv makes gains in Kursk, Russia strikes back in Donetsk

Ukraine captured 102 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region on Wednesday — a record number for a single day, a high-ranking official from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was granted anonymity to share the update, told POLITICO.

But while the successes of the surprise Kursk operation have boosted Kyiv's morale, Russian forces are striking back, capturing more territory around Ukraine's Donetsk region.

Since Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive, "I would say things have become worse in our part of the front," said Ivan Sekach, spokesperson of Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade, which is currently deployed in the Pokrovsk district in the Donetsk region. "We have been getting even less ammo than before and Russians are pushing,” he told POLITICO.

Over the past 24 hours, Russia occupied the villages of Zhelanne and Orlivka and made advances in New York, Krasnohorivka, Mykolaivka and Zhuravka in Donetsk, according to an update posted by DeepState, a war mapping project close to Ukraine's defense ministry.

Ukrainian military administration being set up in Sudzha - Zelensky

President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukrainian troops continue advancing deeper into Russia’s Kursk region as part of a surprise incursion launched nine days ago.

In an address, external, he said "a new advancement" has been made and more Russian soldiers have been captured.

He also referred to the figure previously given by his Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky and said "more than 80" settlements in Russia's Kursk region were now under Ukrainian control.

A Ukrainian military administration was being set up in the biggest one of them, Sudzha, the Ukrainan president said.

x.com

x.com

Ukraine's commander-in-chief claims that Ukrainian troops now control 1,150 square kilometers of Russian territory (in the Kursk region), and 82 settlements.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine unleashes attacks on Russian airfields amid Kursk offensive

Ukraine’s military mounted its largest drone attack on Russian airfields since the 2022 invasion, targeting four key sites deep inside Russian territory with dozens of drones overnight, as its forces continued their advance in the Kursk region of southern Russia.
After rushing reinforcements to Kursk and announcing a “counterterrorism” operation led by top commanders, Russian forces have failed to halt the nine-day incursion, despite daily announcements from military officials that Ukrainian forces had been stopped.
A Ukrainian intelligence official said that Kyiv attacked an air base in Savasleyka, more than 400 miles from the Ukrainian border, near Nizhny Novgorod. The base houses MiG-31 warplanes that launch Kinzhal missiles, among Russia’s most advanced weapons. About 10 explosions were reported at the base, according to Russian independent media, quoting locals.

How the Ukrainian army easily entered Russia and is holding its positions

The Ukrainians made their breakthrough with disconcerting ease. "It wasn't very hard," said Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant and reserve officer. "Since the spring of 2022, the northern border of the Donbas had been quiet, apart from a few small raids. So there were just two fairly simple lines of trenches, a few minefields and few men − a few hundred FSB and Russian National Guard personnel." The area, a no-man's-land five to 10 kilometers wide, was considered low-risk by Moscow. Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Donbas, where the fighting has been concentrated for months.
According to the military expert, the Ukrainian forces were able to enter with greater ease because their enemy had begun to clear the area of mines in preparation for an offensive. "For some time, the Russians had been quietly preparing an attack on Sumy [Ukraine] from the border zone. Demining had begun, but they hadn't massed any troops." Warned by drones and radar, the Ukrainians saw "an effect of opportunity" and decided to "pre-empt the attack" by launching themselves first, continued Audrand. "It's clever, they took the initiative again, whereas, since November 2023, Russia had been imposing its tempo."

JASSM Stealth Cruise Missiles Now On The Table For Ukraine: Report

The United States is reportedly “open” to providing Ukraine with the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile or JASSM, to arm its newly arrived F-16s, and which would provide a very powerful new long-range strike capability. The reports from Washington come around six months after Ukrainian officials stated that the country would receive an undisclosed type of air-launched cruise missile with a range of up to 300 miles for its F-16s.

Citing an unnamed official in the Biden administration, as well as two other people “familiar with internal deliberations,” Politico reported today that the U.S. government is considering whether to approve JASSM for Ukraine, but is open to the idea. Furthermore, the same sources confirm that the Pentagon is already working on how to integrate these missiles on Ukraine’s F-16s, which are upgraded older-model jets drawn from European NATO stocks.

Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukraine to counter Kursk offensive, US officials say

Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied territory inside Ukraine to counter a surprisingly successful Ukrainian offensive inside Russian borders in a move that potentially weakens Moscow’s war effort, two senior US officials told CNN.

The development has drawn American attention and US officials are now working to determine precisely how many troops Russia is moving, but sources said multiple brigade-sized elements made up of at least 1,000 troops each appeared to have shifted to the Kursk region, where Ukraine launched an operation last week.

A senior US official and a senior European intelligence official both said a major goal of the operation appears to be to create “strategic dilemmas” for Putin, particularly when it comes to where Russia should allocate manpower.

Still, Russia is believed to have hundreds of thousands of troops on the frontline in Ukraine, so diverting a few thousand may not have a large impact in the short term, officials said.

Russia also does not appear to be moving its larger and better-trained units away from Ukraine and into Kursk just yet, said two other sources familiar with western intelligence. One of those sources said Russia appears to instead be bolstering Kursk’s defenses primarily with untrained conscripts taken from elsewhere in Russia.

“We haven’t seen a substantial move [of Russian troops] just yet, and we can’t tell whether that’s just because they’re only just getting started moving forces, or whether they just don’t have the forces to move,” said one of the sources familiar with US intelligence.

In addition to the troops moved from inside Ukraine, Russia has also sent personnel from the Leningrad military district and Kaliningrad, in Russia, to help defend Kursk, one of the senior US officials said.

Even as they acknowledged the limited success of the Kursk operation thus far, multiple US and western officials familiar with the latest intelligence cautioned that Ukraine is extremely unlikely to be able to hold the territory for long and emphasized that it’s too soon to judge how the operation will affect the broader outcome of the war.

Some officials also raised concerns that Ukraine, which one western official said has sent some of its more experienced forces into Kursk, may have created weaknesses along its own frontlines that Russia may be able to exploit to gain more ground inside Ukraine.

“It’s impressive from a military point of view,” the official said of the Kursk operation. But Ukraine is “committing pretty experienced troops to this and they can’t afford to lose those troops.”

“And having diverted them from the front line creates opportunities for Russia to seize advantage and break through,” this person added.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

As Ukraine Invades Russia, Kyiv’s Troops Are in Trouble on the Eastern Front

Ukraine’s Kursk operation has embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin and given Kyiv the tactical initiative in one area for the first time in nearly a year. But it transferred troops and weapons from its already-creaking front lines to pull it off, a gamble that risks making a bad situation worse.
“We don’t have enough people to do our job properly,” said the commander of the 21st Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade, which faced the Russian assault last week at the edge of the contested town of Krasnohorivka.
Russian forces have gained territory at a faster rate this summer than at any point since the first weeks of the war and are now pushing toward the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. For Ukraine, losing Pokrovsk would sever a vital artery supplying troops fighting to the northeast, including in the city of Chasiv Yar, which lies on heights that hold the key to controlling the region. On Thursday, officials in Pokrovsk began urging civilians to evacuate.

Commanders in the east describe a situation that has grown more punishing through the summer—with no sign that Russian forces are easing up since the Kursk incursion began. Despite the approval of another U.S. military aid package in April, they remain desperately low on artillery ammunition: Russia has a 10-to-1 advantage in artillery fire in some areas. In addition, the Russians are neutralizing Ukrainian drones with electronic jammers.
But the biggest factor, officers say, is the lack of manpower.
“If we’re supposed to have five or six people in a position, we’ll have two or three,” said a 45-year-old army major who has been stationed in the Chasiv Yar area for the past two months. He said they were so short-handed that cooks, mechanics and other rear personnel were being deployed to trenches. “It’s a matter of time before the enemy finds a weak spot.”
The commander of the 21st Battalion, who goes by the call sign Kucher, said that when his men arrived in the Krasnohorivka area in the spring, they had roughly the same number of men as the Russians.
Now, he said, the Russians have a manpower advantage of around five to one. Only about 20% of the casualties his battalion takes are replaced by new recruits, and the mobilized men who arrive tend to be older than those who volunteered at the start of the war. As in other brigades, the average age of infantrymen has ticked up over 40.

Exhausted soldiers are spending longer in the trenches, Kucher said, because there are no fresh troops to replace them.
Several months ago, he sent one of his platoon commanders, who goes by Zhak, to replace an exhausted soldier in a trench for a week.
Zhak returned in late July, after spending 50 days there. Three attempts at troop rotations had to be abandoned when Russian attacks began. Another soldier spent 105 days in the same trench and now is in the hospital recovering.
Zhak, who is 46 years old, got straight back to work.
“The situation doesn’t allow me to even ask for days off—I’d feel bad leaving,” he said. “Once it stabilizes, I’ll ask for a break.”

The Russian assaults on motorbikes—which have become common up and down the eastern front this summer—make use of Moscow’s numerical advantage. The salvos are costly—most, or all, of the bikers are usually killed—but they help Russian forces locate Ukraine’s positions and secure a toehold that can be gradually reinforced.
Sitting in a 21st Battalion command bunker outside Krasnohorivka last week, a Wall Street Journal reporter watched a live drone feed as the five-bike assault unfolded. Drone teams began searching for the two who escaped. They quickly spotted one sheltering in the ruins of a house, then killed him with an explosive drone.
But they couldn’t find the last Russian, which posed a problem. If even one Russian survived, he could tell his colleagues exactly where the Ukrainians were located, then the Russians would shell those positions.
“We’ve heard them on the radio saying, ‘The enemy is firing from there, there, there,’” Fantom, the 28-year-old commander of the 21st Battalion’s mortar battery, said from the command post. “The goal is to see where our troops are, then hit us with artillery or mortars or drones…That’s why it’s always better to kill all the witnesses.”
Eventually, a drone pilot said he had spotted the last Russian biker hiding under a burned-out car. Still, no one fired a mortar at him.
“If we had unlimited numbers, we’d try to hit the car,” said one soldier watching the live feed at the command post. “But we don’t have as much ammunition as we’d like. We can’t use a mortar to kill only one person.”
Other brigades in the east complained of similar ammunition shortages.
“We have orders only to shoot at stationary targets,” said Sifonesco, the 46-year-old commander of an artillery-reconnaissance unit working near Pokrovsk. “We have to wait for a tank to come to a stop before we can try to hit it.”
As in other brigades, Sifonesco said his unit is relying on explosive drones to make up for the artillery shortage. But the drones are growing less effective, he said, because Russian forces have increased their use of electronic jammers, which cut communication between the drones and their pilots. Now, only about half of the drones are reaching their targets.
“The Russians have more everything than us—more people, more guns, more shells, more ammunition,” Sifonesco said. “In the end, it makes us withdraw.”

x.com

x.com

Video from the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces of the first hours of the Kursk operation on August 6 with MICLICs breaching Russian fortifications, Strykers and tanks, and artillery and aviation support. The video also shows an armored bridge layer and other engineering vehicles.

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

Summary of the offensive in the Glushkovo district of the Kursk region from the Russians. They say the Ukrainians are trying to gain control of (or destroy) the bridges over the Seim river, as well as attack Karyzh to cut off the supply lines of the Russian group. This would allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to occupy a huge section of Russian territory in the area.
He also adds that Sudzha is now becoming a Ukrainian stronghold, and Ukrainians use it as a bridgehead for further incursions.

x.com

x.com

With area taken in Kursk, Ukraine can push its guided artillery & air defenses further forward towards the border, but if they can move those assets into Russia, it's a huge problem for Russia.

With every mile forward you get all that much more land area to strike targets deeper into Russia with HIMARS/GMLRS. These would be precision strikes on targets that are not configured against those kinds of attacks.

Draw a circle 50 miles in radius and keep pushing it inland in Kursk, you will see just how big of a problem this could be. Putting up an air defense umbrella makes finding, fixing, and destroying these assets and dislodging Ukrainian forces much harder.

Risking HIMARS in Kursk could make sense considering just how much damage they can do to a vulnerable region.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine orders evacuation of Pokrovsk

Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Pokrovsk, a city in the Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces approach the region.

In a post on Telegram, the head of the city's military administration says it's important residents "don't delay" their evacuation, as Russian troops are "rapidly approaching the outskirts of Pokrovsk".

The city was the focus of the highest intensity of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces yesterday, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In a post on X, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the city was a key focus for defence forces, external, and was one of a number of areas "facing the most intense Russian assaults".

x.com

x.com

Russian forces are continuing to pursue a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk.

Geolocated footage published on August 14 and 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk within Hrodivka and southeast of Pokrovsk within Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, and ISW assesses that Russian forces likely seized Orlivka and Zhelanne.
2/ Russian forces have also continued mechanized assaults near Donetsk City over the past several weeks.

Geolocated footage published on August 13 and 15 shows Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly company-sized Russian mechanized assault near Heorhiivka (west of Donetsk City) and a reduced company-sized Russian mechanized assault near Mykilske (southwest of Donetsk City). Geolocated footage published on August 11 shows Russian forces conducting a roughly company-sized mechanized assault southeast of Heorhiivka.

There is nothing normal about what has been happening in Russia

In the centre of Moscow I can see commuters rushing to a Metro station and people speeding by on electric scooters. It never ceases to amaze me how normal everything looks here on the surface.

In reality, there is nothing normal about what’s been happening in Russia for the last two-and-a-half years.

So many dramatic events: from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to the Wagner mutiny. And now, the incursion by Ukrainian troops in Kursk region.

After talking to people on the streets of Moscow, it’s clear that the incursion has made the war feel closer.

“It makes me sad,” says Laura, “it shows our borders are unprotected.”

“Now I’m worried about World War Three,” Sophia tells me. “But I hope it’s just me worrying.”

The Western industrial components rebuilding Russia’s military

An August report by the Economic Security Council of Ukraine says that as Russia struggles to retool and refit its shattered military and the industry that supports it, it has become almost completely dependent on China for critical Computer Numerical Control (CNC) systems.
According to the report, many of the components within those systems – controlling the fine movements of machine tools such as lathes in precision manufacturing, including the building of high-tech drones, rockets and other weapons – continue to originate in the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, Switzerland, South Korea and other Western nations.
At the start of the war in February 2022, Russia’s defence industry was almost entirely dependent on such imports. In its immediate aftermath and the sanctions that followed, a host of new Russian-linked firms appear to have been set up in multiple jurisdictions in what appears to have been a concerted effort to find new ways to reacquire that technology and get it into Russian hands.
That work appears to be now bearing at least some fruit. At the start of June, Russian armaments company Kalashnikov Concern – makers of the original AK-47 assault rifle, now also active in a host of other areas including unmanned drones – announced it had successfully acquired 32 CNC machines to support weapons manufacture at an undisclosed location within Russia.
The firm did not reveal the origin of the machines, although its website shows that Kalashnikov itself now sells “Swiss-style” CNC modules to other Russian and foreign clients. But it did make it clear that the acquisition had been underway since 2022, and would be used to meet rapidly rising demand linked to the “special military operation” or SMO – the official Russian description for the Ukraine invasion.
"The demand for our products is growing every year," Kalashnikov quoted its managing director Andrey Baryshnikov as saying. "Our products have proven to be highly effective in the SMO zone. The main goal of acquiring new equipment is to ensure that we have the production capacity necessary to meet the needs of national defence."
Most major Western and allied producers of subsystems – and the report lists several dozen – stopped selling to Russia in 2022 as a result of Western sanctions imposed after the invasion. In February, the U.S., European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom added CNC systems to their jointly produced "list of common high priority items to further weaken Russia's war effort".
Despite those sanctions, however, the Economic Security Council of Ukraine says companies have often kept working work with Chinese subsidiaries or partner firms that import or produce licensed versions of their products within China itself – and those firms then ship that technology to Russia.
Just over 900 days into the war, the ESCU estimates that roughly two-thirds of Russia’s heavy industrial equipment, including the machine tools and control systems the Kremlin needs to produce its weapons, are worn out and on the brink of failure. Russia simply lacks the capability to build those systems itself, leaving it dependent on shipments from outside.
According to the report, 90% of machine tools now coming into Russia originate from China – and 70% of the Russian firms receiving them have military ties. Despite that, 90% of the Chinese firms involved in such trade remain entirely unsanctioned.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia Closes In on Key Eastern Ukrainian City Despite Kursk Incursion

Russian troops are closing in on the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, according to open-source battlefield maps, casting doubts on Ukraine’s hopes that its new offensive into western Russia will prompt Moscow to scale back its attacks elsewhere on the battlefield.
Russian forces are about eight miles from Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds in the Donetsk region, according to the maps, which are based on combat footage and satellite images.
Pokrovsk, a city with a prewar population of about 60,000, sits on a key road linking several cities that form a defensive arc protecting the part of Donetsk that is still under Ukrainian control.

Ukraine offensive in Russia expands beyond Kursk region, soldiers say

Ukraine’s offensive into Russia has expanded to the region of Belgorod, with fierce fighting underway there as Kyiv’s forces in the neighboring region of Kursk showed signs of solidifying control Thursday.
The new details about the fighting in Belgorod, described by Ukrainian soldiers wounded there and evacuated across the border to Ukraine’s Sumy region, came as Ukraine on Thursday appointed a military commander to manage the parts of Kursk it has taken.

But in contrast to the jubilance of some who fought in Kursk, the fighting in Belgorod has been fierce.
Three wounded Ukrainian soldiers, including one commander, described how after months of being deployed along the border, they were sent into Russia four days ago. They crossed in a fleet of armored vehicles in broad daylight, said Hacker, 24, speaking on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign, in keeping with Ukrainian military rules.
As they prepared to cross the border at Kolotilovka, in the same location where prisoners of war have previously been exchanged, Hacker recalled thinking to himself that this was a “crazy” move.
The Russian troops in Belgorod appeared prepared for their arrival, the soldiers said, in contrast to the quick advances Ukrainian units made through Kursk. Although some had retreated, the area was fortified with dragon’s teeth antitank obstacles and heavily mined. Ukrainians came under intense attack by artillery, drones and aerial bombs almost immediately.
The Ukrainians pushed forward about six miles, the soldiers said, seizing abandoned Russian troop positions. But the fighting remained intense. “All our group was injured the day we arrived,” Hacker said. Many Ukrainian troops were concussed or heavily wounded, while others were killed and had to be left behind, he said.
Shelling remained so intense that survivors had to take cover in Russian trenches for days, until an armored vehicle arrived to evacuate them for medical treatment early Thursday. Some were injured more than once as they waited for help.
Hacker said he feared he might be killed in Russia “because we didn’t know their territory.”
“We were working blind,” he added.
Russia has not acknowledged ground fighting in Belgorod, but the governor there declared a state of emergency earlier in the week.
Among the six who were evacuated was Hacker’s commander Serhii, 48, whose right leg was badly wounded in a drone attack a day earlier. He underwent surgery immediately upon arrival in Ukraine on Thursday. “We were shelled by everything,” he said. A nurse came to adjust his bloody leg as other injured troops recuperated around him. One’s face was bloodied and swollen. Two others had injuries to their arms.

 

[Orange&Blue]

like i said, i don't understand why ukraine hasn't increased their mobilization. it's obvious russia is out manning them.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine is developing its own armored combat vehicle, the Inguar-3, to rival US-made gear like the MaxxPro​

• The Azov Brigade has tested a new Ukrainian armored vehicle, according to Militarnyi.
• The Inguar-3, a Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle, was trialed in Luhansk.
• Ukraine has relied on Western-supplied MRAPs, but could soon send its own vehicles to the front.

Ukraine's battle-hardened Azov Brigade has tested a new Ukrainian armored vehicle, according to the Ukrainian military website Militarnyi.

In an undated video published by Inguar Defence, soldiers belonging to the 6th Battalion of the 12th Special Purpose Brigade Azov are seen driving the Inguar-3 in a forest in Luhansk.

"Equipped with independent suspension, locking differentials, a tire inflation system, and EW devices, the vehicle stood up to the harsh realities of modern combat," the company said.

The Inguar-3 was unveiled earlier this year.

At the time, the company described the Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected, or MRAP, vehicle as a "light tactical vehicle designed to excel in various military environments."

It said it was developed with the help of Ukraine's special forces, "following wartime requirements."

The military news website Defence Blog reported that the vehicle has a 356-horsepower engine, multiple cameras, and night-vision capabilities, along with steel and aluminum armor that protects its occupants without adding much weight.

Militarnyi reported that the vehicle was mounted with radio-electronic jamming gear designed to stop drones, made by the Ukrainian company Quertus.

Ukraine has so far relied on Western-provided MRAPs like the US-made MaxxPro during its fightback against Russia's invasion.

The vehicles have played a key role in protecting Ukrainian soldiers from mines and other explosives on the front lines; Ukraine is believed to be one of the most heavily mined countries in the world.

Ukraine had received more than 1,160 MRAPs from its allies, according to open-source intelligence site Oryx.

Ukraine has used them for battlefield transports, combined-arms formations with tanks, direct attacks on Russian positions, and to protect civilians near the front lines.

A video shared by Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, in May appeared to show a MaxxPro surviving a series of direct Russian blasts in Ukraine's Donetsk.

And in June last year, a Ukrainian soldier told The Times that two of his unit's MaxxPros were hit by shelling and mortar fire in Kherson but that "everyone inside survived."

While Ukrainian soldiers commended the Inguar-3's ground clearance and the protection it offered, per Militarnyi, they said the vehicle needed room for additional soldiers, and mounts for personal weapons.

They also said its antennas could sustain damage and catch on obstructions in a wooded area, the outlet reported, with Inguar and Quertus reportedly working on upgrades.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Destroys Key Russian Bridge as It Presses On With Offensive

Ukraine has destroyed a critical bridge and appears to have targeted at least one more in Russia’s western Kursk region as it tries to sever Russian supply lines and consolidate its territorial gains, a dozen days into its startling cross-border offensive.
Analysts say the destruction of the bridge — which spanned the Seym River near the town of Glushkovo, about 10 miles west of the battle zone in Kursk — could hamper Russia’s response to the Ukrainian attack by making it harder to move troops and materiel, although there are alternative routes.
The destruction of the bridge was reported by both Kyiv and Moscow.

Analysts say the destruction of the Glushkovo bridge points to a commitment by Ukraine to a sustained fight in western Russia. By trying to disrupt Moscow’s logistical lines, they say, Ukraine may be preparing for a prolonged campaign to strengthen and possibly expand its positions in the area.

Yet as Ukraine’s offensive presses on, military experts say that greater challenges lie ahead. Seizing more land will become harder as Russian reinforcements arrive and Ukraine’s supply lines are stretched, and holding on to captured territory could expose fixed Ukrainian positions to potentially devastating Russian airstrikes.
Thibault Fouillet, the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies, a French research center, said that Ukraine would need to bring in air defense and artillery weapons, organize logistical lines and replace soldiers at the new front.
“It’s not easy to open a new front and hold it,” he said.

Russia ‘rapidly approaching’ key Ukraine city despite Kursk setback

Officer of Ukraine’s 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade Serhii Tsehotskyi told Ukrainian national broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that Ukraine’s incursion into Russia had not led to a decrease in Moscow’s attacks in the Donetsk region.

He said Russian attempts to advance do not stop “for a minute,” and “the battles continue around the clock.”
“Taking into consideration the events in the Kursk region, they (the Russian forces) are trying to do everything in order to be successful at least somewhere,” he said.

Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report

The German government will stop new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition's plan to reduce spending, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Saturday.

The moratorium on new assistance is already in effect and will affect new requests for funding, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cited non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people familiar with the matter.

In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany's federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.

How Russia looked the wrong way as Ukraine invaded

The idea that Ukraine could turn the tables on Russia and burst onto the territory of its much bigger neighbour seemed unthinkable to most observers before last week. The shock operation has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russia's surveillance, as well as the calibre of its border fortifications and the forces guarding them.
"The Russians had a complete intelligence failure here," French military expert Yohann Michel, research fellow at the IESD institute in Lyon, said in an interview.
With Ukraine's forces retreating in eastern Ukraine, one of the most strategic sectors of the front line, Moscow may well have assumed Kyiv would not make a high-stakes gamble that even now it is far from clear will pay off, Michel said.
"I would understand if it was difficult for the Russians to think something that big could happen," he said.

A Ukrainian soldier called Dmytro, 36, said he initially thought the Ukrainian army's build-up was to prevent a Russian cross-border raid.
Instead, he found himself supporting the advance toward the border crossing near Sudzha after the assault units moved in, he said in an interview, giving his only first name in line with military protocol.
"We worked to pre-empt them and they did not see this coming at all," he said.

‘We don’t know what’s happening’: Fear and confusion in Kursk as Russian residents take shelter and Ukraine advances

Our Ukrainian escort said the Russian attack drones that had blighted Ukraine’s progress on the front lines in the past months were simply too busy at the frontline battles to harass Kyiv’s forces at the border and in Sudzha. Their conspicuous absence, and that of Russian air power, suggested a possible improvement in Ukraine’s capabilities for this surprise assault. The ubiquity of Western-supplied armored vehicles on the roads into Russia showed Ukraine was throwing resources it had long claimed it lacked into this fight.

 

[Chadstroma]

Another Russian Tu-22M3 Bomber Crash: How Many Are Left?​

A Technical Malfunction​

According to Tech the Tu-22M3, a crucial asset in Russia's strategic bomber fleet, went down during a training mission over Siberia.

Initial reports from Russian officials suggest that the crash was due to a "technical malfunction" and not related to any Ukrainian military actions.


The Tu-22M3 bomber is a key element of Russia's long-range aviation capabilities, capable of carrying up to 24 tons of armament, including Kh-32 and Kh-22 missiles.

These missiles pose a particular threat to Ukraine due to their extended range and difficulty to intercept. The Tu-22M3 can also be equipped with Kh-15 or Kh-47M2 Kinzhal cruise missiles, with ranges up to 2,000 km.

Less than 57​

Military experts have highlighted the challenges Russia faces in maintaining its fleet of these bombers.

According to Oleg Katkov, a military analyst, it is difficult to estimate how many Tu-22M3s Russia currently has operational.

As of mid-2023, reports indicated that Russia had 57 of these bombers, but that number has likely decreased due to recent losses.

Two Tu-22M3s were destroyed earlier this year—one in April and another in August. Additionally, two more were damaged in July during a Ukrainian strike on Olenya airbase.

Katkov also noted that Russia's ability to maintain these aircraft is hampered by the fact that engines for the Tu-22M3 have not been produced since 1996.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine destroys second bridge in Kursk region

Ukrainian forces destroyed a second bridge across the Seim River in Russia's Kursk region, officials said, just days after a separate crossing was targeted in the same region as Kyiv continues its major cross-border offensive.

BBC video segment: https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1825103407092494464

How are Russians reacting to the dramatic Ukrainian incursion in Kursk region? A hundred miles from Moscow I gauge the mood in a small Russian town. Producer @LizaShuvalova @BBCNews

x.com

x.com

Ukraine’s 501st Separate Marine Battalion is also fighting in Kursk oblast.

x.com

x.com

The 501st was moved from Krynky to the Kharkiv region in May to counter the Russian offensive there. As the video suggests it has subsequently been deployed from Kharkiv to the Kursk offensive.

x.com

x.com

Apti Alaudinov says that Russian SSO and members of the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade are fighting in Kursk oblast.

x.com

x.com

@Deepstate_UA maps showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk axis over the past couple days. It looks like Ukrainian troops south of Novoselivka Persha may have withdrawn from the area east of the Vovcha River.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Behind Ukraine’s Russia Invasion: Secrecy, Speed and Electronic Jamming

In all, Ukraine has taken 2,000 prisoners, according to a Ukrainian official, and seized about the same amount of territory that Russia, in grinding, high-casualty offensives, has taken from Ukraine since the start of the year.

Ukraine’s last attempt at a major advance, in summer 2023, ended badly. That counteroffensive gained only a few villages and cost the lives of thousands of experienced troops who couldn’t break through heavily fortified Russian defensive lines.
Since last fall, Russia has used its larger forces to grind out slow advances but at a heavy cost. Both sides are now dug into trenches along 600 miles of front lines surrounded by land mines and with artillery and drones ready to strike.
With the Kursk operation, Ukraine found a solution: go around.
Preparations began earlier this summer as Ukraine used drones to attack infrastructure in Kursk, from the power grid to ammunition and fuel-storage depots and surveillance equipment.
Members of an anti-Kremlin paramilitary group backed by Ukrainian military intelligence carried out raids across the border, probing for weak spots and conducting reconnaissance. Two weeks before the operation began, Ukrainian drones destroyed Russian observation systems at a border post on the road to Kursk.
For Mykola Toryanyk, a local Ukrainian official, the first rumblings came in early August. At night he could hear the sound of tracked vehicles on the rutted roads leading to the border near his district in Sumy province.
He assumed that Ukraine was pre-empting an attack by Russia, which had launched a fresh incursion into the nearby Kharkiv region in May. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned that Moscow was massing troops for another thrust across the border.
Instead, Ukrainian forces were quietly building up for an attack of their own. Soldiers and equipment pulled from brigades across the country dissolved into the forests and villages near the border. The plan was shrouded in such secrecy that many of the men who would take part were unaware of their mission until it was nearly under way.
“We didn’t know,” said a slight Ukrainian artilleryman who goes by the call sign Shoom. His crew of eight men from Ukraine’s 44th Artillery Brigade had arrived in the Sumy border region days earlier after being pulled from the front line in the south.
At around 3 a.m. on Aug. 6, they unleashed an intense barrage from six M777 howitzers, supplied by Ukraine’s Western backers, which were set up along a stretch of the border aiming into Russia.

As Ukrainian assault forces smashed across the border in the early hours that morning, several Russian units found that their drones and communications systems weren’t working.
Ukrainian electronic-warfare units went into Russian territory ahead of the main mechanized assault forces to jam Russian equipment to stop Russian forces from pinpointing Ukrainian positions or intercepting their communications.
That unusual, early deployment—more like that of a reconnaissance unit—created a protective bubble around advancing Ukrainian assault forces.
Leading the charge were the 80th and 82nd air assault brigades, among Ukraine’s most powerful units, which are equipped with U.S. Stryker and German Marder armored vehicles.
The Western equipment had proved of limited utility on the battlefield in eastern and southern Ukraine, where dense minefields and drones make maneuver warfare all but impossible.
But in Kursk, Ukrainian mechanized troops raced down Russian roads with little resistance. Within hours, they had advanced miles into Russian territory, driving past towns and villages rather than attacking them head-on.
At a command center on the Ukrainian side of the border, members of the Nightingale Battalion, a drone unit, received coordinates. They sent explosive drones up to 10 miles into Russia to strike enemy dugouts, equipment, fortifications and soldiers.
The assault troops were advancing so fast it was hard to keep up with them, said one drone operator. There were few Russian armored vehicles to target because they had retreated north, he said.
“It’s not just because it was sudden,” said Kholod, another member of the drone unit. “It was deeply and well planned.”

Russia, caught off guard, scrambled to pull together a response. With most of its military committed to Ukraine, Moscow initially relied on warplanes and helicopters to try to slow the Ukrainian advance, as well as lightly armed National Guard units. The Ukrainians moved forward air-defense systems to hold back Russian aircraft and used an explosive drone to down an attack helicopter.
On the fourth day of the incursion, a convoy of Russian military trucks laden with soldiers near the town of Rylsk was struck by rockets fired from a U.S.-provided Himars rocket system.
Video footage showed more than a dozen burned-out vehicles, some containing corpses. A U.S. official said Friday that the Biden administration didn’t believe Ukraine had moved Himars launchers into Russia but was most likely using them to fire precision-guided rockets from border areas in Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery quickly moved deeper into Russian territory. On the outskirts of Suzha, the crew from the 44th Brigade targeted Russian equipment and soldiers on the main highway from Kursk.
Food, water and cigarettes were scarce, according to members of the crew, indicating the challenges Ukraine faces in resupplying troops in enemy territory. In the supermarkets, fresh produce had spoiled because there was no power, and the crew members were reluctant to shoot livestock.
“It’s hard the first week because you don’t know the roads,” said a stocky soldier with a gravelly voice, who makes daily trips in and out of Kursk to get supplies for his unit. The route is constantly changing because Russia is striking roads used by Ukraine, he said.
Most in demand are cigarettes and energy drinks. “You don’t sleep,” he said. “You’re on edge.”
An even bigger problem is glide bombs dropped by Russian warplanes. “They’re destroying their own cities,” said Shoom, the artilleryman, acknowledging that it gave him satisfaction after seeing Russia wreak destruction on Ukraine.
Ukraine has sought to counter the threat of glide bombs by attacking the airfields from which Russian warplanes take off. Ukraine attacked the military airfield in the Lipetsk region neighboring Kursk with drones in the early days of the incursion, destroying hundreds of Russian glide bombs, according to a Ukrainian official.
The Ukrainians were fighting what military experts call the close battle and the deep battle at the same time.

Western military estimates suggest Ukraine has committed as many as 6,000 soldiers to Kursk and has up to 4,000 additional troops in support roles in the Sumy region.

The Ukrainians are aware of that risk and are balancing so far, the person said.
Russia has pulled several understrength brigades from Ukraine in response, totaling up to 5,000 troops as of the middle of this past week, the person said. One brigade was from the Donetsk region, the focus of Russia’s current offensives, but others were from less essential areas.
Still, Russia might have to pull more troops out of Ukraine if it wants to take the territory back, which would require a larger force than the Ukrainians and would probably need to number more than 20,000 properly trained personnel, the person said.

Kremlin response to Kursk incursion shows how Putin freezes in a crisis

But the continued damage to Putin’s authority after a catastrophic war and repeated shocks does not translate to an internal threat to his power. Nor is there a risk his regime might collapse in the foreseeable future, according to analysts.
Stanovaya said that many Russians, particularly members of the elite, had come to expect the worst in the war but realized that there was no alternative to Putin in Russia’s repressive political system.
“They are so used to shocking events. They're so used to living in a very unpredictable situation, so it's very difficult to surprise them. And they are also used to the feeling that they don't have the power to affect anything, and they are helpless,” she said.
The crisis, she continued, had certainly undermined Putin’s authority — without necessarily undermining his grip on power.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, defending in the area near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, said today that Russia has not redeployed large numbers of troops from the Pokrovsk axis.

Likewise, on August 14, Ukrainska Pravda reported that “sources in the Luhansk Operational Tactical Group of Forces, which is fighting on the Pokrovsk front, said that the Ukrainian defenders felt no relief in combat actions during the week of the operation. The Russians continue to assault the burning city of Toretsk and bombard it with aerial bombs, and they are advancing in the villages on the approach to Pokrovsk almost every day.”

Russia’s double-punch back against Ukraine’s shock raid

Soldiers from the 82nd brigade, the second of four involved in the opening assault, say fighting has grown increasingly intense after the initial euphoric gains. In the early exchanges there had been only one serious fight, when Russians tried to ambush them from maize fields near the first village. The Ukrainians, who somehow had a monopoly of reconnaissance drones in the sky, saw the enemy and ordered them to surrender. They didn’t. So they fired everything they had until the maize stopped rustling, and silence fell. Then the Ukrainians moved on.

The plan to invade part of Russia did not come from a happy place. In early July, General Syrsky, Ukraine’s newly appointed top commander, was under pressure. He was grappling with a less-than-ideal inheritance from his predecessor, Valery Zaluzhny, and the army’s leadership was at odds with the president over mobilisation policies, leading to significant manpower shortages. In America Congress was delaying support. Avdiivka, a stronghold north of Donetsk, was about to fall. Front lines in the Donetsk region were crumbling, most especially around the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Rumours circulated that General Syrsky was on the verge of being dismissed, with attack dogs associated with Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s all-powerful chief of staff, even suggesting he had been “lying” to his bosses.
Amid the turmoil, the commander began his planning. “Syrsky isn’t good at political games,” says a source close to the general. “What he is good at is war.” Several scenarios were considered for an offensive push at the weakest points in the Russian line: a strike in Bryansk region in the north; a strike in Kursk region; a combination of the two; or more. The main objective was to draw troops away from the Donbas stranglehold, and to create bargaining chips for any future negotiation. General Syrsky kept his plans under wraps, sharing them only with a tight group of generals and security officials. He spoke to the president on a one-on-one basis, without his staff. The army’s intelligence did much of the reconnaissance, rather than leaving it to HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, which was included only at a late stage.

General Syrsky confused the enemy by concealing the arrival of his most battle-hardened divisions. Reinforcements were brought to the forests near the border under the pretext of defending against a supposed Russian attack on Sumy. At the same time, a narrative appeared in Ukrainian media about an imminent Russian invasion. “The rotation happened about a week and a half before the start of Kursk operation,” recalls Serhiy. “The Russians continued to believe that we were simply defending the border.”

General Syrsky is a pedant for detail. Yet while the first phase was planned meticulously the campaign is now developing in an ad hoc fashion. With the element of surprise lost, the Ukrainian advances have slowed. President Zelensky is still pushing for maximum progress, a source in the general staff says. But his top soldier is cautious, concentrating on expanding the flanks along the border to create more defensible lines. “Syrsky is no fool,” his confidante says. “He knows that rushing ahead risks the whole operation.” In recent days, an expanded Ukrainian contingent of 10,000-20,000 soldiers appears to be focused on establishing control on the southern bank of the Seim river to the north-west of Sudzha. On August 16th, Ukrainian missiles destroyed a bridge over the river at Glushkovo. And on August 18th Ukraine’s air force said that it had blown up a second bridge over the Seim.
General Syrsky’s great gamble has offered Ukrainians hope after a year of consistently grim news. It has also given him renewed authority. But the long-term success or otherwise of the operation will depend largely on how Russia responds. It appears to be pursuing a twin approach of responding more aggressively to the incursion while also sustaining pressure inside Ukraine along the line in the Donbas. The Kremlin’s goal will be to turn Kursk into little more than an embarrassing mosquito bite amid a bloodbath inside Ukraine.

Evidence of an intensifying response inside Kursk is now clear. Ukrainian soldiers on the ground inside Russia say they are already beginning to see a different level of resistance. Losses are increasing. The Russians have reinforced with better trained units, including marines and special forces. They had studied the area. This belated Russian response to the incursion in Kursk has forced it to divert some troops from strangleholds inside Ukraine in the Donbas. Reflecting this, a Ukrainian government source says military activity in the Donbas has significantly decreased since August 16th. However there is a big exception: Pokrovsk, the town where Russia was making steady advances before the incursion and where it is seeking to maintain heavy pressure on Ukraine.

x.com

x.com

Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front, in New York, and north of Bakhmut, as well as Ukrainian advances in Kursk oblast.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Moscow says Ukraine struck a third bridge over Seym river in Russia's Kursk region

A Russian investigator said on Monday that Ukraine had struck and damaged a third bridge over the Seym river in Russia's Kursk region a day earlier, where Moscow's troops have been battling Kyiv's forces for nearly two weeks.
"On August 18, as a result of targeted shelling with the use of rocket and artillery weapons against residential buildings and civilian infrastructure in the Karyzh village...a third bridge over the Seym river was damaged," a representative for Russia's Investigative Committee said.

x.com

x.com

Milblogger Romanov_92 says Ukraine destroyed the third bridge over the Seym River in Kursk. The other two bridges went kaput not longer after he crossed them.

Some video here: https://x.com/SOF_UKR/status/1825388629000126830

Work of Ukrainian SOF operators during Operation in Kursk region. Ambushes, raids, artillery fire adjustments as well as POW capture are daily work of our warriors.

Power grid significantly damaged in Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast

Energy infrastructure facilities have been significantly damaged as a result of a Russian attack on Kozacha Lopan in Derhachiv district (Kharkiv Oblast) on the night of 18-19 August.

Source: Viacheslav Zadorenko, Head of Derhachi City Military Administration

Details: At the moment, the settlements of Kozacha Lopan, Nova Kozacha, Tsupivka and Dubivka are cut off from the power grid. This includes 1,000 consumers.

Quote: "Power engineers from Kharkivoblenergo [a local branch of the Ukrainian state energy operator – ed.] are doing everything possible to repair the power grid as soon as possible."

Ukraine to return to power cuts amid hot weather and a lack of generation

Ukraine will cut power for some consumers again on Monday due to a power generation shortage after Russian attacks on its energy system and increased consumption due to hot weather, the Ukrainian power grid operator and the energy ministry said.
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's energy sector have intensified since the spring, resulting in blackouts in many regions and forcing Kyiv to start large-scale electricity imports from the European Union.
The restrictions will be in effect from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Kyiv time, Ukrenergo said.
Ukraine significantly limited energy supplies in July due to the repair of several key nuclear power units and record high temperatures.
The restrictions almost disappeared in August after reactors were brought back on line and temperatures dropped.
Ukrainian officials have said that the country lost almost half of its power production capacity because of the attacks.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russians approaching Pokrovsk: residents have 2 weeks to evacuate at most

The pace of evacuation from Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, where the Russians are approaching, has increased – 500 to 600 people leave the city daily.

Source: Serhii Dobriak, Head of Pokrovsk City Military Administration, in an interview with Radio Liberty

Details: Considering the pace of the Russian army's advance, the residents of Pokrovsk have one to two weeks to evacuate, say the local authorities, who are urging people to leave now while it is still possible to do so in a controlled manner. Currently, all services and agencies in Pokrovsk are operating. However, Dobriak predicts that their work will soon have to be halted.

Quote: "As of today, everything in Pokrovsk is still functioning, and all services are fully operational. This includes water, electricity, gas, public transport, shops, markets, banks, the court, the State Migration Service and the Administrative Services Centre. Everything is still working for now. But we understand that within a week, these operations will gradually be winding down."

Details: The head of Pokrovsk City Military Administration predicts that forced evacuation of children will be implemented in the city as early as this week.

"Before the full-scale war, we had 13,700 children. Now, 4,788 children remain in the community, meaning about a third are still here... I believe that this week we will reach the point where we will also have mandatory evacuation of children," said Dobriak.

He said about 60 per cent of residents are leaving Pokrovsk on their own, using their own transport: "Yesterday, 490 people left. Of those, only 135 took the train. The rest left by their own vehicles, with their belongings and trailers. We can easily evacuate at least 1,000 people. We have the resources for this. They just need to leave."

DeepState confirms Ukraine captured 2 more settlements in Russia's Kursk Oblast

Ukraine's defence forces have captured Apanasovka, Snagost and Otruba and advanced into Olgovka in Russia's Kursk Oblast on 18 August.

x.com

x.com

Russian military correspondent Kots expects a new strike with “heavy Western equipment,” most likely in the direction of Tetkino, to further complicate the supply of Russian militants in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk Zone.

x.com

x.com

In the Glushkovsky district, the Russians acknowledge that the area is isolated and relies on pontoon bridges for supplies. Despite this, they are now more optimistic due to the slowing advance of Ukrainian forces and their own successes in the Pokrovsky direction.

Elsewhere, there are reports of a nighttime raid in Korenevo that was reportedly repelled, and ongoing battles for Olgovka, where Russian forces are attempting to push out Ukrainian troops.

Attempts to capture Martynovka, located north along the highway from Sudzha, continue.

To the southeast of Sudzha, Ukrainian forces are advancing and consolidating their positions, reportedly withdrawing assault units to use them elsewhere in the bridgehead.

Huge fire: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1825454566692839684

Rostov Oblast, the large Russian oil depot hit by Ukrainian attack drones yesterday suffered a catastrophic secondary explosion this morning.

A several-hundred-foot-tall column of flames could be seen rising over the depot, now severely burning.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian president says the push into Russia’s Kursk region is to create a buffer zone there

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday the daring military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region aims to create a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow across the border.

It was the first time Zelenskyy clearly stated the aim of the operation that began Aug. 6. Previously, he had said the operation aimed to protect communities in the bordering Sumy region from constant shelling.

Zelenskyy said “it is now our primary task in defensive operations overall: to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions. This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory -– our operation in the Kursk region,” he said in his nightly address.

Germany Pushes Back Against Report on Ending Ukraine Support

Germany will continue to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary, according to a spokesman for the finance ministry in Berlin.

The spokesman, Fabian Leber, was responding to a weekend report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper that said spending constraints mean that financing for additional aid for Ukraine — on top of what has already been earmarked — won’t be available from the federal budget.

Leber said Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition and its international partners will be relying on part of the support for the government in Kyiv being funded from profits generated by immobilized Russian central-bank assets.

“We are still standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine and that applies especially” to Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Leber told reporters Monday at a regular news conference. “He says that of course we will support Ukraine for as long as necessary.”

In Moscow, fear of a new military call-up: 'Our borders are not being protected'

Some 500km from the new front, between indifference and concern, Muscovites are following "this war which, now on our own land, in Kursk, hides its name".
Piotr, a father in his thirties who doesn't wish to give his name, didn't mince his words because he knew he could be called up. Between working during the day and going out with friends in the evening, his daily life, like that of most of his fellow citizens, has hardly changed since the Ukrainian army entered Russian territory in the Kursk border region on August 6.
Despite this first armed foreign incursion into the country since the Second World War, Moscow seems to be enjoying a perfect summer, happy and carefree. But far from the crowded café terraces, a wave of blue and green posters at store entrances and on building doors bears a reminder to all men of fighting age: together, Moscow City Hall and the Ministry of Defense are now offering 5.2 million rubles (more than €50,000) a year to any volunteer going to the front.
"They keep increasing the bounty. But soon they'll struggle to find contractors and, inevitably, the government will launch a new compulsory conscription," Piotr said. "The front in Kursk has shown us that conflict can spread. Our borders are unprotected, we don't have enough men and equipment, and the army is going to need more and more troops."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Civilians flee Pokrovsk as Russia’s army bears down on the key eastern Ukraine city

People of all ages boarded trains and buses with the belongings they could carry. Some wept as they waited to depart. Soldiers helped the elderly with their bags, and volunteers helped people with disabilities. Rail workers wore bulletproof vests.

Natalya Ivaniuk said the noise of explosions from Russian bombardments filled the air while she and her daughters, age 7 and 9, fled their home in the nearby village of Myrnohrad, which is less than 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the front line.

“It was terrifyingly scary,” she told The Associated Press. “We barely got out.”

Pokrovsk is one of Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region. Its capture would compromise Ukraine’s defensive abilities and supply routes and would bring Russia closer to its stated aim of capturing the entire Donetsk region.

Russia closes in on Donetsk city despite Ukraine’s successes elsewhere

“There’s some evidence that the Russians are actually engaging the last proper defensive line outside of the town outside of Pokrovsk,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst with the Center for New American Security.
The loss of Pokrovsk, a logistical hub at the junction of two major roads in eastern Ukraine, would open the door to further Russian advances in this eastern industrial region that has long been the focus of its attack.

Russia’s steady advance points to a possible weakness in Ukraine’s strategy, analysts said, as Kyiv’s hopes to limit Russian gains in the east so far are not being realized.
“The picture in the Donbas looks rather concerning to me,” said Gady, the military analyst, referring to the rust belt area in eastern Ukraine where Pokrovsk, Toretsk and other sites are situated.
Russia continues to hold a large advantage in manpower and firepower over Ukrainian forces, he said.
“The larger question is, what kind of reserves are now no longer available” in Pokrovsk which would have otherwise been available had there not been an operation in Kursk, Gady said.
“War is always about making choices,” Gady said. “The question is, is this the right choice to commit forces to expand the front line” into Russia, “or would it have been wiser to hold back reserves [and] stabilize the front line in the Donbas?”
However, other analysts saw a trade-off in Kyiv’s strategy.
“At present, however, it seems that Ukrainian territorial gains near Kursk are more important than territorial losses near Pokrovsk,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan defense consultancy, said.
“Secondly, even if Russians approach the city, they will need to take it, which will likely be a costly task as urban warfare is,” Muzyka said. “If Ukrainians dig in properly, they will have a chance of inflicting high losses on Russian units.”
He added, however, that this “all boils down to manpower and the extent to which Kyiv is willing to defend the area.”

Kyiv says Russian forces pressing hard in eastern Ukraine

Ukraine's military said its troops were subjected to dozens of attacks by Russian forces on Monday around Toretsk and Pokrovsk, two settlements in eastern Ukraine where Moscow is gaining ground against embattled Ukrainian forces.
In a statement, the military said Russian troops attacked Ukrainian defenders 21 times over the course of Monday in the Toretsk area, with some of the attacks still ongoing after nightfall.
It also said there were 63 skirmishes on Monday around Pokrovsk, a logistics hub. The Pokrovsk front is the area with the most intense fighting in eastern Ukraine with a record number of clashes reported last week.

Czechs will buy ammunition for Ukraine with income from frozen Russian assets

The Czech Republic will use some of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in the European Union to buy hundreds of thousands more artillery shells for Ukraine, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.

The Czech Defence Ministry said some of that money would be used for an effort it has been leading to buy artillery ammunition for Ukraine around the world, funded by Western partners.
"Thanks to proceeds from frozen Russian finances, released by the European Union, we will be able to supply several hundreds of thousands of large-calibre ammunition rounds to Ukraine," minister Jana Cernochova said.
The ministry did not give further details but said deliveries would be made "in the coming months", and thus would soon have an impact on the battlefield.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

x.com

x.com

53rd brigade soldier to @ukrpravda_news: "Our forces are in Niu-York, holding the defence. We control approximately 20%. The Russians are advancing thanks to a large number of reserves. We kill them, but they keep coming. Unfortunately, we don’t have such reserves." https://pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/20/7471074/

Military briefing: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east

Kyiv’s forces have in two weeks seized more land in Russia than Moscow has in Ukraine all year — transforming perceptions about their capabilities and boosting morale among Ukrainians.
But that stunning operational success has yet to deliver one crucial objective: diverting Russia’s manpower and easing pressure in the hottest battlefields in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow is steadily advancing.
Russian soldiers are still grinding their way through Ukrainian defences, capturing villages and towns and bringing Moscow closer to its stated goal of complete control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
On Monday, Russian troops appeared to have captured nearly all of the town of Niu-York; entered nearby Toretsk; and were encroaching on the logistical hub of Pokrovsk.
One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.
His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons — the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress — because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukraine has also moved upwards of 10,000 troops, including many of its elite airborne forces and mechanised brigades, from Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, where the fiercest battles are under way, according to officials involved with the operation.
At least 20 Ukrainian units are confirmed to be involved in the Kursk incursion, according to military analysts. Some of those were meant to be reserve forces to help shore up fracturing defensive lines and provide a reprieve for troops who have fought without rest for months or even years.
Even in the days before setting off for Kursk, Ukrainian defences in Donetsk region were “showing cracks,” said one senior Ukrainian official familiar with military operations.
He told the FT that Russian forces had achieved “tactical success” in Donetsk and more advances were likely unless the situation turned around.

With much of its reserves directed to Kursk, Ukraine will struggle to fill defensive gaps and counter various Russian threats, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war.
“Russia doesn’t have trouble mobilising troops whereas Ukraine still has trouble mobilising the number needed to hold and conduct operations in Donetsk,” he told the FT.
Officers and infantry troops on the eastern front also now face even longer frontline stints without rotations, several told the FT.
Two lieutenants serving in a brigade that had been on the front in Donetsk region before being sent to Kursk said that in more than two years of fighting they had each only had a month-long break.
Another soldier said he had gone months fighting near Toretsk without any rest before being ordered to Kursk. “Nobody can ask [for a rotational break] now,” he said. “We were the reserves but now we are here.”

Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts tracking the war said there has been no clear indication that Russia was moving a consequential amount of forces from the hottest area on the frontline in its east.
“Despite the successes of the defenders in the Kursk region, the Russians have not yet transferred their troops en masse from here,” said Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised Brigade. “Its main strike force remains.”

x.com

x.com

The Russian army and pontoon crossings don’t have a good record in this war. Here are Ukrainian drones hitting at attempt to set up a pontoon over the Seym river in Kursk region of Russia after Ukraine bombed all the bridges.

 

[Da Guru]

Would be comical if not true.

Putin: Apparently, the enemy is striving to improve its negotiating positions in the future," Putin said Monday. "But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike at civilians, at civilian infrastructure in our country?"

Russia launched a "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and since then, Russia has attacked numerous Ukrainian civilian population centers. Russian strikes have also hit Ukrainian hospitals, schools, theaters, train stations and shopping malls.

 

[Chadstroma]

Would be comical if not true.

Putin: Apparently, the enemy is striving to improve its negotiating positions in the future," Putin said Monday. "But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike at civilians, at civilian infrastructure in our country?"

Russia launched a "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and since then, Russia has attacked numerous Ukrainian civilian population centers. Russian strikes have also hit Ukrainian hospitals, schools, theaters, train stations and shopping malls.

The Russians have less than zero creditability at this point. If not for the needless dead in this conflict, this clown show called the Russian Federation would be the funnier than any comics alive now.

 

[Chadstroma]

x.com

x.com

The Russian army and pontoon crossings don’t have a good record in this war. Here are Ukrainian drones hitting at attempt to set up a pontoon over the Seym river in Kursk region of Russia after Ukraine bombed all the bridges.

They flew that drone right into the face of the driver.

 

[Chadstroma]

An observation is that the forces that have been moved by the Russians to Kursk from the Donetsk and Kharkiv areas have tended to be smaller elite forces while they push National Guard and conscripts (of which Russia promised would not be sent to the frontlines) which seem to be already nearby. This seems to suggest, to me at least without any real intelligence but just keeping an eye on the progression of the war, that Russia does not have the capability to move large numbers of troops. They have set up a funnel to throw troops and equipment at these locations and are unable to conduct mobile military actions in mass.

 

[The Z Machine]

Also, seems like a winning strategy to deploy the Western military equipment like APCs, Tanks, SPA against non-hardened defenses so that the increased mobility will let them overrun the defensive lines. That tech came up short against densely mined and entrenched defenses with EW capabilities + drones.

The obvious question is now that UKR has some Russian territory, what will the do with it? Will the entrench? Or will they use the forward position to simply deploy rocket artillery + drones against targets deeper in Russia?

 

[FarFromHome]

Good points and observations on operational warfare above. Another thing this war has shown us is that, outside of nukes, Russia ain't got no juice. Moving large troops movements for battle is so Vietnam war. What's the United States approach in a invasion? Drone bomb the hell out of you. Dispatch field artillery units to bomb the hell out of you. Send in armored regiments of tanks to bomb the hell out of you. By the time Private Joe is on the ground with his m4, his role isn't to invade its to hold. War sucks. Hopefully our days of actual war is done but, unfortunately, human history says it isn't. Shout out to the fallen.

 

[The Z Machine]

Good points and observations on operational warfare above. Another thing this war has shown us is that, outside of nukes, Russia ain't got no juice. Moving large troops movements for battle is so Vietnam war. What's the United States approach in a invasion? Drone bomb the hell out of you. Dispatch field artillery units to bomb the hell out of you. Send in armored regiments of tanks to bomb the hell out of you. By the time Private Joe is on the ground with his m4, his role isn't to invade its to hold. War sucks. Hopefully our days of actual war is done but, unfortunately, human history says it isn't. Shout out to the fallen.

That works until the enemy has excellent EW and AA capabilities. Then their drones start hitting those APCs.

Seems like the play for the US in that scenario is take out the EW and AA first.

 

[Chadstroma]

Also, seems like a winning strategy to deploy the Western military equipment like APCs, Tanks, SPA against non-hardened defenses so that the increased mobility will let them overrun the defensive lines. That tech came up short against densely mined and entrenched defenses with EW capabilities + drones.

The obvious question is now that UKR has some Russian territory, what will the do with it? Will the entrench? Or will they use the forward position to simply deploy rocket artillery + drones against targets deeper in Russia?

Yes, which I find interesting when I have criticism of the operation for pulling Ukrainian forces for the invasion most of which from my understanding are mechanized brigades. Meanwhile, in Donetsk and Kharkiv it is a trench warfare slugfest with drones everywhere. What exactly are you supposed to do with those Strykers and Marders in that? The Ukrainians had to do something to change the pace of the war and take back some initiative. It may or may not end up being what 'wins' the war for them or loses it but if they just continued to throw troops in to stop the Russian advances then the only hope for the Ukrainians is that eventually Russian material runs out.... troops wise, they have a large population to draw from even if it is mobilization, which they can keep throwing in to catch Ukrainian bullets, bombs and drones with their teeth.

 

[Chadstroma]

Good points and observations on operational warfare above. Another thing this war has shown us is that, outside of nukes, Russia ain't got no juice. Moving large troops movements for battle is so Vietnam war. What's the United States approach in a invasion? Drone bomb the hell out of you. Dispatch field artillery units to bomb the hell out of you. Send in armored regiments of tanks to bomb the hell out of you. By the time Private Joe is on the ground with his m4, his role isn't to invade its to hold. War sucks. Hopefully our days of actual war is done but, unfortunately, human history says it isn't. Shout out to the fallen.

That works until the enemy has excellent EW and AA capabilities. Then their drones start hitting those APCs.

Seems like the play for the US in that scenario is take out the EW and AA first.

One big difference from what is in the war now on either side and what we have/will have are things like the trophy, strikeshield and iron fist are all some of what is available now or being developed. I am sure there is much more going on as well. You can bet that the American defense industry is in hyper mode in developing tech that can defeat drones. Of course, this is the history of warfare from the very start of it. Someone develops something that gives them an edge on the battlefield and then someone develops something that counters that edge and then that other tried to counter the counter and so forth and so on.

My guess is that there will be both active and passive counter systems individually on most (all) armored vehicles and that there will also be a development of a new Flakpanzer Gerard type of armored vehicles that are based around force protection mainly against drones as the first counter to these counter systems will massed attacked to overwhelm so individual systems may not be enough and the use of something like a Flakpazer type would help take out more.