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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of October 20​


Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have repelled enemy attacks along the entire front line. A total of 164 combat engagements were recorded yesterday, according to the press service of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces launched four missile strikes (with five missiles), conducted 81 airstrikes, and dropped 155 guided aerial bombs. The enemy carried out more than 3,500 shellings, 91 of which were from multiple launch rocket systems.

Airstrikes targeted populated areas, including Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Siversk, and Zaporizhzhia, among others. Despite this, Ukraine’s Defense Forces executed five strikes on enemy troop and equipment concentration areas, destroying two command posts.

The most intense combat occurred in the Kurakhove direction, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 60 attacks. Heavy clashes were also observed in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Pokrovsk directions.

In the Kharkiv and Prydniprovskyi directions, the enemy suffered significant losses while attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses but was unsuccessful. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue active operations in the Kursk region.

No signs of the enemy forming offensive groupings have been detected in the Volyn and Polissya directions.

Russian losses at the front

During the past day, from October 19 to 20, Russian troops sustained losses of over 1,300 soldiers, 57 drones, and 41 vehicles.
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Russia's losses in Ukraine as of October 20: + 1,340 troops and almost 40 troop-carrying AFVs​


Over the past day, from October 19 to 20, Russian forces lost more than 1,300 soldiers, 57 unmanned aerial vehicles, and 41 pieces of automotive equipment at the front, acccording to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The total combat Russian losses from February 24, 2022, to October 20, 2024, are estimated to be:

・personnel - about 678,520 (+1340) Russian troops;

・tanks - 9,047 (+12);

・troop-carrying AFVs - 18,111 (+39);

・artillery systems - 19,565(+17);

・MLRS - 1,232;

・anti-aircraft systems - 978;

・aircraft - 369;

・helicopters - 329;

・UAV operational-tactical level - 17 287 (+57);

・cruise missiles - 2,624 (+1);

・warships/boats - 28;

・submarines - 1;

・vehicles and fuel tanks - 26,987 (+41);

・special equipment - 3476 (+3).

Frontline situation and air attacks

According to the ISW, Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back Russian troops near Kupiansk, but the aggressor's forces made advances in the Kursk and Donetsk regions.

Overnight, Russia launched another drone attack on Ukraine using Shahed-type UAVs, triggering air raid alerts across multiple regions.

In Kyiv, air defense units shot down around ten enemy drones.

Additionally, terrorists struck Kharkiv with a hybrid Grom-E1 missile-bomb, damaging houses and cars in one of the city’s districts.
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Elite Drone Operator Saba of Ukraine’s 68th Brigade Dies in Combat​


One of the top UAV operators of Ukraine's 68th Brigade, Viktor Stelmakh, known by his call sign "Saba," was killed in action on October 18.

The 29-year-old junior sergeant was recognized as one of the best drone operators in his brigade and a key figure in defending Ukraine from Russian forces.

Saba joined the fight from the very beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Initially serving in the infantry, he later transitioned to piloting drones.

His skills and leadership were pivotal in creating the Dovbush Hornets unit, a specialized group focused on drone operations, according to Digi24.

Over time, Saba became an expert in his field, training others to pilot drones as effectively as he did. "If everyone fought like Saba, we would have won this war long ago," Onistrat said in a Facebook post honoring Saba’s bravery and skill.

Eliminated 500 Enemy Combatants​

Despite briefly stepping away from the military, Saba felt compelled to return to the battlefield, driven by a deep sense of duty and a desire to fight the injustices brought by Russia's aggression.

Onistrat’s tribute noted that Saba was responsible for eliminating over 500 enemy combatants, a testament to his effectiveness as a drone operator and soldier. His death occurred on the frontlines near Pokrovsk, a region that continues to see intense fighting.

Saba had gained public recognition in August 2023, when Ukrainska Pravda featured him in a report from the Kupiansk-Liman front.

At that time, the 68th Brigade successfully repelled a Russian offensive in the Luhansk region, a key strategic victory for Ukraine. His contributions to Ukraine’s defense efforts were widely respected, and his loss is felt deeply by his comrades and commanders alike.
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Ukraine's "Hedgehog" Backpacks and Robots Keep Them One Step Ahead of Russia​


Ukrainian soldiers are set to receive advanced "hedgehog backpacks" and high-tech ground robots in a bid to defend against Russian drone attacks. The new equipment is expected to be available on the front lines within a month.

Robots to Evacuate Soldiers​

Developed by the Ukrainian company Kvertus, the $6,000 "hedgehog backpack" gets its name from its numerous antennas designed to neutralize Russian drones. These antennas form a dome-shaped defense system to block drone signals.

The company has also produced a $100,000 ground robot, an unmanned vehicle equipped with antennas capable of disabling drones by jamming their GPS signals, according to Ziare.

In addition to its anti-drone capabilities, the robot can help transport soldiers away from the battlefield, a function particularly useful for evacuating the wounded.

Serhii Skorik, Kvertus' commercial director, explained to The Times that the idea for the ground robot came after a Ukrainian commander expressed frustration that troops could not evacuate wounded soldiers due to the heavy presence of Russian drones overhead.

Saved more than 50,000 Lives​

Russian drones dominate much of Ukraine’s skies, and a significant portion of battlefield casualties has been attributed to these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The antennas on the new Ukrainian devices are designed to block signals from up to 300 meters away.

According to Skorik, Kvertus’ equipment has saved more than 50,000 lives since Russia's invasion began in 2022. Ukraine has been actively deploying anti-drone weapons to limit Russian attacks. Early in the war, Australian company DroneShield also provided Ukraine with its anti-drone systems.

This new wave of defense technology comes as Ukraine ramps up its own drone production. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced earlier this month that Ukraine is now capable of producing up to four million drones per year.

Ukraine’s defense industry, which barely existed before Russia's invasion in February 2022, has rapidly expanded. Zelensky also shared that Ukraine had contracted the production of 1.5 million drones this year alone.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal added that Ukraine has tripled its total domestic arms production in 2023 and doubled it again within the first eight months of this year.
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Zelensky attacks North Korea​


Ukraine warns of North Korean troops' arrival: 'The risk is huge'

The Ukrainian foreign minister believes that the arrival of North Korean troops means "a new escalation of the war against Russia".

Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andri Sibiga, said on Saturday that the involvement of North Korean troops alongside Russia in the war in Ukraine poses a "huge threat" of escalation of the conflict.

North Korea's growing involvement poses "a huge threat of a new escalation of Russia's war against Ukraine, its intensification and expansion beyond the current limits", he said at a press conference after meeting his French counterpart, Jean-Noel Barrot, in Kiev.
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Azov Brigade recruits trained using NATO standards​


The 12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade puts a strong emphasis on the level of training for its recruits, using NATO standards to train its soldiers.

“The recruit we’re training now,” Taran explains, “in two months, will be in a trench with our brothers, alongside us. So we need to prepare him well enough to have full confidence in him.”

The basic combat training course for Azov recruits lasts six weeks. The new soldiers are trained by instructors with extensive combat experience. After completing the course, they are assigned to their respective units, where they receive additional training.

“Our soldiers are constantly learning,” Taran assures. “Training continues even for those units currently on the front lines. So when they come out of the trenches, they are still training.”

Back in 2015, Azov ditched all Soviet-era practices and began implementing NATO standards, striving to reach their level of preparation.

However, Taran notes that Azov’s combat training draws not only from NATO but also from other armed forces, such as the French Foreign Legion and the Israeli military.

“When civilians come in not knowing what unit they want to join or what exactly they want to do (and we get a lot of people like that),” Taran continues, “I always suggest they attend our basic combat training course. We have instructors there who observe the recruits and, based on their own experience, can suggest which path might suit them best. Representatives from various units—infantry battalions, artillery, intelligence—also come by to help guide them.”

According to Taran, the basic combat training course is the best way for civilians to figure out which unit is the right fit for them.
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Ukrainian drones struck 'largest explosives factory' in Russia, source says​


Ukrainian drones struck Russia's "largest explosives plant" overnight, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 20.

The source said the drones targeted the large state-owned Sverdlov Plant in the city of Dzerzhinsk in the Nizhny Novgorod region, some 900 kilometers deep into Russia.

The plant has been under sanctions by the U.S. and the EU since 2023, over what the U.S. State Department says is its work "acquiring goods in support of Russia's war effort." The factory produces explosives, industrial chemicals, detonators and ammunition, the U.S. said in a press release when the sanctions were announced.

The source told the Kyiv Independent that the plant produces aviation and artillery shells, aviation bombs, and warheads that help Russia continue waging its war against Ukraine.

The operation was carried out in cooperation between the SBU, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), and the Special Operations Forces, the source said.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the report.

Outmanned and outgunned on the battlefield Ukraine has turned to homemade drones to try to exhaust Russian combat capabilities as much as possible from afar, targeting Russian military-industrial complex facilities, airbases or oil refineries.

While Ukraine regularly claims attacks deep into Russia, it is difficult to verify the authenticity of the reports and the scale of the damage inflicted.

"The SBU worked on strengthening the sanctions against the Sverdlov plant," the SBU source told the Kyiv Independent.

"We added drones to the economic sanctions, which give an instant effect. Work on reducing the enemy's military capabilities will continue."

Earlier in October, another Ukrainian drone strike set ablaze a Russian weapons depot storing North Korean ammunition in Bryansk Oblast, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Oct. 9.

In September, Estonian Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, said Ukraine's drone strike on the arms depot in Russia's Tver Oblast destroyed two to three months' worth of munitions.
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Ukrainian partisans carry out sabotage in occupied Kherson region​


An agent of the combat wing of the Ukrainian partisan movement ATESH destroyed a relay cabinet near the temporarily occupied settlement of Novooleksiivka in the Kherson region, according to the ATESH partisan movement.

The sabotage carried out near the administrative border with Crimea damaged the enemy's logistics and slowed the supply of occupying forces in southern Ukraine. In particular, it affected a crucial fuel supply line following the destruction of the oil port in Feodosia.

Partisans also provided the coordinates of the site: 46.2470141, 34.6643949.

ATESH added that the partisan movement has conducted hundreds of successful operations, which they can disclose openly after Ukraine's victory.

Ukrainian partisans' activity

In the early weeks of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces seized most of the Kherson region and its administrative center. In the autumn of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Kherson; however, most of the left bank of the Kherson region remains under Russian control.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian partisans continue to undermine the combat potential of Russian forces in the temporarily occupied Crimea and within Russia.

In the summer, partisans executed a sabotage operation near the occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson region. They destroyed Russian bunkers, trenches, and weapon arsenals.

In September, partisans damaged railway infrastructure in the Kursk region, disrupting the enemy's logistics.
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Chadstroma said:

Zelensky attacks North Korea​


Ukraine warns of North Korean troops' arrival: 'The risk is huge'

The Ukrainian foreign minister believes that the arrival of North Korean troops means "a new escalation of the war against Russia".

Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andri Sibiga, said on Saturday that the involvement of North Korean troops alongside Russia in the war in Ukraine poses a "huge threat" of escalation of the conflict.

North Korea's growing involvement poses "a huge threat of a new escalation of Russia's war against Ukraine, its intensification and expansion beyond the current limits", he said at a press conference after meeting his French counterpart, Jean-Noel Barrot, in Kiev.
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Ugh. Hoping this doesn't escalate things.
 
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
 
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
Click to expand...

I just have no thought that Ukraine can retake any land at this point. It's just how much they cede.
 

Former Russian oil executive found dead after ‘fall’​


A former Russian oil executive has been found dead after apparently falling from the window of his Moscow flat.

Mikhail Rogachev was found outside his 10th-story apartment in Moscow with injuries consistent with a fall, Russian media reported.

Russian news agencies said authorities were treating his death as a suicide.

Telegram channels close to the Russian security services said his body was discovered by an agent of the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence service, who was walking the dog of a senior spymaster in the building’s courtyard on Saturday morning.

The 64-year-old was a former vice-president of Yukos, the oil giant that was broken up and after its billionaire owner Mikhail Khodorkovsky was imprisoned after challenging Vladimir Putin.

He went on to work as executive director of the Onexim group, oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov’s investment vehicle, and later deputy general director of Norilsk Nickel, a mining giant.

He is the latest of nearly a dozen Russian energy executives to die in mysterious circumstances over the past two years.

Leonid Shulman, the head of the transport service at Gazprom Invest, which handles investment projects for state-owned gas giant, was found dead in a cottage north of St Petersburg in January 2022.

Alexander Tyulakov, another executive at Gazprom, was found dead in the garage of his St Petersburg home on February 25 that year, the morning after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian media reported.

Later that year Ravil Magonov, the chairman of Lukoil, an oil giant, died after falling out of the window of a Moscow hospital.

Vladimir Nekrasov, who succeeded him as the chair of the Lukoil board, died in October last year of heart failure.
Click to expand...
 
culdeus said:
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
Click to expand...

I just have no thought that Ukraine can retake any land at this point. It's just how much they cede.
Click to expand...
It is hard to fight a war without tanks, armored vehicles and more importantly based on Russian tactics, artillery. Further than that, Russia has been losing a lot of anti-air units. We saw what happens when well equipped and trained Ukrainian units can do against conscripts without the backing of a number of tanks and artillery. The Russians were overrun, collapsed and melted away. The only real limit to the Ukrainian advance was their logistical restraints and lack of reserve troops to exploit it further. When Russia can no longer pour in conscripts backed by tanks and artillery, the Russians will not be able to hold defensive positions let alone advance. At the start of the war, no one thought Ukraine would survive a week. They not only did but they beat back the Russians from a significant amount of territory that was seized in the invasion. If the Russians do start to run out of the ability to replace their losses in equipment, I can easily see Ukraine pushing through to Crimea and the Russians collapsing.

Beyond that, if Saudi Arabia drives down oil prices, that could bring the entire Russian economy to a grinding halt. (it depends on how much the prices are driven down to the extent of how much it will impact the Russian economy). An economy in shambles could be the end of Putin. A new regime could easily look for a quick exit from the costly war effort and agree to original borders.

I can see it happen.... not easily.... not for certain, but more than one scenario plays it out. The key, though, is continued support from NATO and allies.
 
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
Click to expand...
The elephant in the room is the US election. If Trump wins Ukraine will have no choice but to surrender.
 
Orange&Blue said:
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
Click to expand...
The elephant in the room is the US election. If Trump wins Ukraine will have no choice but to surrender.
Click to expand...
Let's steer off of this or else we will get our hands slapped again.
 
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
Click to expand...
And arguably they are winning.
Click to expand...
Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
Click to expand...

I just have no thought that Ukraine can retake any land at this point. It's just how much they cede.
Click to expand...
It is hard to fight a war without tanks, armored vehicles and more importantly based on Russian tactics, artillery. Further than that, Russia has been losing a lot of anti-air units. We saw what happens when well equipped and trained Ukrainian units can do against conscripts without the backing of a number of tanks and artillery. The Russians were overrun, collapsed and melted away. The only real limit to the Ukrainian advance was their logistical restraints and lack of reserve troops to exploit it further. When Russia can no longer pour in conscripts backed by tanks and artillery, the Russians will not be able to hold defensive positions let alone advance. At the start of the war, no one thought Ukraine would survive a week. They not only did but they beat back the Russians from a significant amount of territory that was seized in the invasion. If the Russians do start to run out of the ability to replace their losses in equipment, I can easily see Ukraine pushing through to Crimea and the Russians collapsing.

Beyond that, if Saudi Arabia drives down oil prices, that could bring the entire Russian economy to a grinding halt. (it depends on how much the prices are driven down to the extent of how much it will impact the Russian economy). An economy in shambles could be the end of Putin. A new regime could easily look for a quick exit from the costly war effort and agree to original borders.

I can see it happen.... not easily.... not for certain, but more than one scenario plays it out. The key, though, is continued support from NATO and allies.
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If the bolded is true, you aren't reading enough unbiased coverage. I haven't seen any serious observer suggest that's even remotely a possibility at this point.
 
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
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And arguably they are winning.
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When you have zero regard for how many of your own men die you usually will win. Now they even need help for North Korea? So what is difficult to understand where is the off ramp for Russia now? A totally destroyed Ukraine?

We know that this is all about Putin's survival. So Russia will never withdraw, Russia loses and Putin is a dead man walking.
 
thecatch said:
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
Chadstroma said:
culdeus said:
belljr said:
How is this still going, absolutely ridiculous Russia is
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And arguably they are winning.
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Russia is losing a winning war.

What I mean by that is that they can not sustain operations with the loss of equipment that they are suffering. Their tactics, which has steadily pushed Ukrainian defenses back in the Eastern Donetsk region, has been using artillery (which they are losing by about 1K pieces a month currently) to bombard areas and then basically human wave frontal attacks in small group units. Along with the artillery the Russians are losing tanks and APC/IFV. Their ability to produce new weapons is severely limited. For T-90M's, it is believed they are producing 60-70 annually. Most of their production of tanks has been refurbishing Soviet stockpiled older tanks going back to even T-54's (first put in production in 1948).

Manpower is something that Russia has a clear advantage but it isn't as black and white when you dive into the details. Putin has been very careful to try to keep Moscow and other large cities living life as close to 'normal' as possible. Recruitment has been focused on ethnic minorities throughout Russia. The ability to lure men into service with money is harder and harder. Manpower is also strained in the economy with a shortage of workers.

Finally, the economy has been propped up by a number of things that Russia has done.... most of which are basically borrowing tomorrow's economy for today. As time goes on, as it losses more manpower (not just in casualties but many are leaving Russia still) and as they no longer can kick the economy bucket down the road further.... it will be harder and harder to keep the economy from crashing. If Saudi Arabia does indeed punish OPEC+ countries for not doing what it wants by opening the spickets of oil to flood the market driving oil prices down, that could very well be the final nail in the Russian economies coffin.

Yes, Ukraine is 'losing' but as long as NATO and others continue to support it, it can stand up against Russia inflicting the losses and eventually Russia will no longer have the capacity to carry out significant military operations. Ukraine is getting pushed back but it is not close to collapse. As long as they are supported- they can continue the fight. Russia on the other hand is not as 'lucky' in it's 'friends' of which basically all are really just taking advantage of the situation for their own agendas. North Korea and Iran are basically getting Russian technology transfers for their own military industrial development. China has been using Russia for it's now cheap resources and continues to exert more and more influence over Russia.

The clock is ticking for Russia. Estimates are that they will come to critical depletion of Soviet stockpiles in the later part of 2025. How much is the clock ticking for Ukraine? It largely depends on what happens in terms of support from the US, NATO and allies.
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I just have no thought that Ukraine can retake any land at this point. It's just how much they cede.
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It is hard to fight a war without tanks, armored vehicles and more importantly based on Russian tactics, artillery. Further than that, Russia has been losing a lot of anti-air units. We saw what happens when well equipped and trained Ukrainian units can do against conscripts without the backing of a number of tanks and artillery. The Russians were overrun, collapsed and melted away. The only real limit to the Ukrainian advance was their logistical restraints and lack of reserve troops to exploit it further. When Russia can no longer pour in conscripts backed by tanks and artillery, the Russians will not be able to hold defensive positions let alone advance. At the start of the war, no one thought Ukraine would survive a week. They not only did but they beat back the Russians from a significant amount of territory that was seized in the invasion. If the Russians do start to run out of the ability to replace their losses in equipment, I can easily see Ukraine pushing through to Crimea and the Russians collapsing.

Beyond that, if Saudi Arabia drives down oil prices, that could bring the entire Russian economy to a grinding halt. (it depends on how much the prices are driven down to the extent of how much it will impact the Russian economy). An economy in shambles could be the end of Putin. A new regime could easily look for a quick exit from the costly war effort and agree to original borders.

I can see it happen.... not easily.... not for certain, but more than one scenario plays it out. The key, though, is continued support from NATO and allies.
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If the bolded is true, you aren't reading enough unbiased coverage. I haven't seen any serious observer suggest that's even remotely a possibility at this point.
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Unbiased universally accepted opinion was Ukraine would fall in 3 days at the start of the invasion.

Please explain to me how Russia will replenish it's armor, artillery, and anti-air units that they are bleeding at high levels well beyond their ability to produce and have only been able to keep up so far by relying on refurbishing Soviet stockpiled inventory which is being depleted (we can see the storage areas being emptied... this isn't a guess).

Let me be clear, I am not saying it will happen.... and when I say 'easily' it isn't that thr Ukrainians will find it easy but rather I can see several scenarios that would lead to that (as I outlined several on previous posts).

I read and learn from sources that I have available. I take expert views into account... but I learned a long time ago to not blindly believe what "everyone thinks" as being the end all. I will make my own opinions and I am not afraid to state what I think.

In short, I don’t think Ukraine is a losing bet. I think Russia is much weaker in many ways than what we thought or think. I think Russia is not too far from the ledge... similar to how many Russians seemingly have trouble from not falling out of high buildings. Will it go over the edge? Maybe. It isn't a sure thing. But yes, I do go against prevalent thinking in my view of Russia and Ukraines ability to "win" (essentially not lose).
 

The Only Way the Ukraine War Can End​

Russia has to stop fighting.
By Anne Applebaum

In an underground parking lot beneath an ordinary building in an ordinary Ukrainian city, dozens of what appear to be small, windowless fishing boats are lined up in rows. The noise of machinery echoes from a separate room, where men are working with metal and wires. They didn’t look up when I walked in one recent morning, and no wonder: This is a sea-drone factory, these are among the best engineers in Ukraine, and they are busy producing the unmanned vessels that have altered the trajectory of the war. Packed with explosives and guided by the world’s most sophisticated remote-navigation technology, these new weapons might even change the way that all naval wars are fought in the future.
Certainly, the sea drones are evolving very quickly. A year ago, I visited the small workshop that was then producing the first Ukrainian models. One of the chief engineers described what was at the time the drones’ first major success: a strike that took out a Russian frigate, damaged a submarine, and hit some other boats as well.
Since then, the sea drones, sometimes alone and sometimes in combined attacks with flying drones or missiles, have sunk or damaged more than two dozen warships. This is possibly the most successful example of asymmetric warfare in history. The Ukrainian drones cost perhaps $220,000 apiece; many of the Russian ships are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The military impact is enormous. To avoid Ukrainian strikes, Russian ships have mostly left their former headquarters, in the occupied Crimean port of Sevastopol, and moved farther east. They no longer patrol the Ukrainian coast. They can’t stop Ukrainian cargo ships from carrying grain and other goods to world markets, and Ukrainian trade is returning to prewar levels. This can’t be said often enough: Ukraine, a country without much of a navy, defeated Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Nor is Ukraine’s talent for asymmetric warfare confined to water. During a recent trip, I visited another basement, where another team of Ukrainians was working to change the course of the war—and, again, maybe the course of all subsequent wars as well. (I was allowed to tour these operations on the condition that I not identify their locations or the people working at them.) This particular facility had no machines, no engines, and no warheads, just a room lined with screens. The men and women sitting at the screens were dressed like civilians, but in fact they were soldiers, members of a special army unit created to deploy experimental communications technology in combination with experimental drones. Both are being developed by Ukrainians, for Ukraine.
Read: The ‘Gray Zone’ comes to Russia
This particular team, with links to many parts of the front lines, has been part of both offensive and defensive operations, and even medical evacuations. According to one of the commanders, this unit alone has conducted 2,400 combat missions and destroyed more than 1,000 targets, including tanks, armored personnel vehicles, trucks, and electronic-warfare systems since its creation several months ago. Like the sea-drone factory, the team in the basement is operating on a completely different scale from the frontline drone units whose work I also encountered last year, on several trips around Ukraine. In 2023, I met small groups of men building drones in garages, using what looked like sticks and glue. By contrast, this new unit is able to see images of most of the front line all at once, revise tools and tactics as new situations develop, and even design new drones to fit the army’s changing needs.
More important, another commander told me, the team works “at the horizontal level,” meaning that members coordinate directly with other groups on the ground rather than operating via the army’s chain of command: “Three years of experience tells us that, 100 percent, we will be much more efficient when we are doing it on our own—coordinating with other guys that have assets, motivation, understanding of the processes.” Horizontal is a word that describes many successful Ukrainian projects, both military and civilian. Also, grassroots. In other words, Ukrainians do better when they organize themselves; they do worse when they try to move in lockstep under a single leader. Some argue that this makes them more resilient. Or, as another member of the team put it, Russia will never be able to destroy Ukraine’s decision-making center, “because the center doesn’t make all the decisions.”
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The Only Way the Ukraine War Can End Part 2​

I recognize that this account of the war effort differs dramatically from other, grimmer stories now coming out of Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russian glide bombs and artillery have slowly begun to destroy the city of Pokrovsk, a logistical hub that has been part of Ukraine’s defensive line in Donetsk for a decade. Regular waves of Russian air strikes continue to hit Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure. The repeated attacks on civilians are not an accident; they are a tactic. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to deprive Ukrainians of heat and light, to demoralize the people as well as the government, and perhaps to provoke a new refugee exodus that will disrupt European politics.
Russia remains the larger and richer country. The Kremlin has more ammunition, more tanks, and a greater willingness to dispose of its citizens. The Russian president is willing to tolerate high human losses, as well as equipment losses, of a kind that almost no other nation could accept. And yet, the Ukrainians still believe they can win—if only their American and European allies will let them.
Two and a half years into the conflict, the idea that we haven’t let Ukraine win may sound strange. Since the beginning of the war, after all, we have been supporting Ukraine with weapons and other aid. Recently, President Joe Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine at the United Nations. “The good news is that Putin’s war has failed in his core aim,” he said. But, he added, “the world now has another choice to make: Will we sustain our support to help Ukraine win this war and preserve its freedom, or walk away and let a nation be destroyed? We cannot grow weary. We cannot look away.” Hoping to rally more Americans to his side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spent much of last week in the United States. He visited an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania. He met with former President Donald Trump, and with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Eliot A. Cohen and Phillips Payson O’Brien: How defense experts got Ukraine wrong
Zelensky also presented a victory plan that asked, among other things, for Ukraine to have the right to use American and European long-range missiles to strike military targets deep inside Russia. This kind of request is now familiar. In each stage of the war, the Ukrainians and their allies have waged public campaigns to get new weapons—tanks, F-16s, long-range missiles—that they need to maintain a technological edge. Each time, these requests were eventually granted, although sometimes too late to make a difference.
Each time, officials in the U.S., Germany, and other Western powers argued that this or that weapon risked crossing some kind of red line. The same argument is being made once again, and it sounds hollow. Because at this point, the red lines are entirely in our heads; every one of them has been breached. Using drones, Ukraine already hits targets deep inside Russia, including oil refineries, oil and gas export facilities, even air bases. In the past few weeks, Ukraine’s long-range drones have hit at least three large ammunition depots, one of which was said to have just received a large consignment from North Korea; when attacked, the depot exploded dramatically, producing an eerie mushroom cloud. In a development that would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the war, Ukraine has, since early August, even occupied a chunk of Russian territory. Ukrainian troops invaded Kursk province, took control of several towns and villages, set up defenses, repelled Russian troops, and have yet to leave.
But in truth, the imaginary red lines, the slow provision of weapons, and the rules about what can and can’t be hit are not the real problem. On its own, a White House decision to allow the Ukrainians to strike targets in Russia with American or even European missiles will not change the course of the war. The deeper limitation is our lack of imagination. Since this war began, we haven’t been able to imagine that the Ukrainians might defeat Russia, and so we haven’t tried to help those who are trying to do exactly that. We aren’t identifying, funding, and empowering the young Ukrainian engineers who are inventing new forms of asymmetric warfare. With a few exceptions, Ukrainians tell me, many allied armies aren’t in regular contact with the people carrying out cutting-edge military experiments in Ukraine. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, says that the Ukrainians have spare capacity in their own drone factories, and could produce more themselves if they just had the money. Meanwhile, $300 billion worth of frozen Russian reserves are still sitting in European clearinghouses, untouched, waiting for a political decision to use that money to win the war. Biden is right to tout the success of the coalition of democracies created to aid Ukraine, but why not let that coalition start defending Ukraine against incoming missiles, as friends of Israel have just done in the Middle East? Why isn’t the coalition focused on enforcing targeted sanctions against the Russian defense industry?
Worse—much worse—is that, instead of focusing on victory, Americans and Europeans continue to dream of a magic “negotiated solution” that remains far away. Many, many people, some in good faith and some in bad faith, continue to call for an exchange of “land for peace.” Last week, Trump attacked Zelensky for supposedly refusing to negotiate, and the ex-president continues to make unfounded promises to end the war “in 24 hours.” But the obstacle to negotiations is not Zelensky. He probably could be induced to trade at least some land for peace, as long as Ukraine received authentic security guarantees—preferably, though not necessarily, in the form of NATO membership—to protect the rest of the country’s territory, and as long as Ukraine could be put on a path to complete integration with Europe. Even a smaller Ukraine would still need to be a viable country, to attract investment and ensure refugees’ return.
Right now, the actual obstacle is Putin. Indeed, none of these advocates for “peace,” whether they come from the Quincy Institute, the Trump campaign, the Council on Foreign Relations, or even within the U.S. government, can explain how they will persuade Russia to accept such a deal. It is the Russians who have to be persuaded to stop fighting. It is the Russians who do not want to end the war.
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U.S. Agrees to Give Ukraine Millions to Build More Long-Range Drones​

The move, confirmed by a Pentagon official, signifies a change in U.S. policy aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s ability to fight the war against Russia with its own weapons.

The United States has agreed to give Ukraine $800 million in military aid that will go toward manufacturing long-range drones to use against Russian troops, Ukraine’s leader said on Monday, fulfilling a longtime Ukrainian goal of getting Washington to buy weapons from manufacturers in Ukraine instead of primarily in America.
A Pentagon official, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue, confirmed the move, which comes as the United States shifts its policy and moves toward shoring up Ukraine’s ability to fight the war with its own weapons and on its own terms.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in a briefing with journalists Monday that the money was just the first U.S. disbursement for Kyiv’s weapons production and long-range capabilities.
The decision to support long-range drone production in Ukraine may be a kind of consolation prize for Mr. Zelensky, who — despite repeated pleas — has so far failed to persuade Western partners to lift restrictions on using their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

The decision also shows a change in tactics for the West.
The United States has given more than $61 billion in security aid to Ukraine since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. But it has long resisted giving money directly to Ukraine for weapons, instead portraying its support for Kyiv in the war as a way to support American companies and minimize the potential for corruption. U.S. military aid packages to Ukraine have shrunk recently, partly because of concerns about dwindling Pentagon stockpiles.

In April, Denmark became the first country to join a Ukrainian campaign called Manufacturing Freedom, which aims to raise $10 billion for the production of Ukrainian weapons. The Danish government agreed to give about $28.5 million to buy weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers. Canada and the Netherlands later signed on.
More than two and a half years into the war, Mr. Zelensky is trying to reinvigorate Western support in whatever way he can. Russia continues to advance in the east of Ukraine and now occupies about 20 percent of the country despite record Russian troop casualties in September, more than 1,200 a day.
For weeks, Mr. Zelensky has been promoting what he calls a “victory plan,” visiting the United States and Europe to try to persuade Western leaders to send more weapons and to give Ukraine more of a chance to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength.
But, so far, no one has signed on to that plan, which relies largely on increased Western support, and Mr. Zelensky’s visits were overshadowed by the war in the Middle East, Hurricane Milton and the looming U.S. election.

Mr. Zelensky told journalists on Monday that U.S. officials were evaluating his plan, but said he did not expect any decision until after the Nov. 5 election. He also said the majority of Ukraine’s NATO allies wanted to invite Ukraine formally to join the military alliance, but a few, including the United States and Germany, were more cautious. Russia has pushed strongly against NATO membership for Ukraine.

Drones have been crucial for Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, especially while the country has been waiting for the West to sign off on long-range missiles.
Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said on Monday that Ukraine had invested more than $4 billion in its defense industry. Appearing alongside the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, in Kyiv, he said that long-range drones could hit targets more than 1,000 miles away and that they had already destroyed more than 200 military facilities in Russia.
“Our drones have become a real threat to the enemy,” said Mr. Umerov. But he said his country still needed investment from international allies.
Western officials recently praised Ukrainian drone attacks against ammunition depots near Toropets, a town in western Russia, in late September. The officials said it was one of the best examples of Ukraine’s successfully attacking Russian ammunition dumps, fuel bunkers, command posts and Moscow’s overall ability to supply its forces.

The officials said the Ukrainian one-way attack drones had hit a series of depots storing Russian ammunition, bombs and missiles, as well as ammunition purchased from North Korea. The first strike, on Sept. 18, was so large it caused an explosion that registered 2.7 on the Richter scale and ignited fires covering an area almost four miles wide.
Overall, the strikes over several days destroyed an estimated 100,000 tons of ammunition — the largest loss of Russian and North Korean-supplied ammunition since the war started, the officials said.
On Friday in Brussels, Mr. Austin said that the Ukrainians had used Ukrainian long-range drones to take out “a number of strategic-level ammunition supply points, which has had an impact on the battlefield.” He also said Ukraine could produce those drones in great numbers at a small fraction of the cost of a precision-guided missile and that they “have proven to be very effective and accurate.”
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Ukraine to receive 3 Mirage 2000 aircraft from France in early 2025 - La Tribune​


France has decided to supply Ukraine with the first batch of three Mirage 2000-5 aircraft. They will be armed with SCALP cruise missiles and AASM bombs, La Tribune says.

“France will supply three Mirage 2000-5s to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025. This figure has not yet been announced by either the Elysee Palace or the Ministry of the Armed Forces,” the agency writes.

These Mirage 2000 aircraft, which Paris intends to supply to Ukraine, will be delivered in the first quarter of 2025.

Mirage 2000 for Ukraine

The Mirage 2000 is a fourth-generation French multi-role, single-engine jet fighter aircraft with a low-slung triangular wing, developed by Dassault Aviation in the 1970s. It is the main combat aircraft of the French Air Force and has been adopted by the armies of several countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.

More than 600 aircraft have been built in total. The Mirage 2000 production line was shut down in 2007 after the last aircraft was delivered. The last Mirage 2000 was delivered to Greece on November 23, 2007. The French Air Force is replacing the Mirage 2000 with the Dassault Rafale multi-role fighter, which was commissioned on June 27, 2006.

It was recently reported that Ukraine will receive Mirage 2000 aircraft from France in the coming months. The first aircraft will be delivered in early 2025.
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Ukraine's Defence Ministry approves use of Tarhan unmanned system developed by Ukrainian engineers​


The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has authorised the use of the Tarhan (Roach) unmanned ground robotic system developed by Ukrainian engineers in the defence units.

Details: The Tarhan is small enough to be transported in a minibus or on a trailer.

At the same time, the robot itself can carry up to two centners of cargo. It can transport ammunition, food, and equipment depending on the needs of particular unit.

A silent electric motor, large rubber wheels and design features allow it to move across the battlefield unnoticed for a considerable distance."

It is noted that the Tarhan can help with transporting heavy cargo.
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UK completes training of 200 Ukrainian pilots for F-16 combat missions​


"Did you know the UK has already trained 200 Ukrainian pilots?" Pollard stated.

Pollard added that on Tuesday, Oct. 22, he attended the graduation of the latest pilots under the RAF training program, who will soon be flying F-16s for Ukraine.

The deputy minister emphasized that Britain would support Ukraine for as long as necessary.

Earlier, Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, reported that British-trained Ukrainian Armed Forces pilots had completed their training and would soon head out on combat missions.

On Oct. 17, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is shifting its F-16 fighter pilot training focus to younger cadets rather than experienced servicemen.
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Donated Aussie Abrams tanks to receive baptism of fire in Ukraine​


CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand - Some have predicted the demise of heavy armored vehicles on future battlefields, but Australian defense officials, in words and actions, are underscoring the enduring relevance of the main battle tank.

On Oct. 17, Australia pledged to gift 49 second-hand M1A1 AIM Abrams tanks to Ukraine. This came just weeks after a first batch of new M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams replacements arrived in Australia from the U.S.

Australia never utilized its 59 M1A1 Abrams in combat, but they will soon be used in anger against Russian invaders in Ukraine. Boasting a 120mm main gun, thick armor and advanced sensors, older Abrams still remain a formidable battlefield weapon, whether in Ukraine or the Asia-Pacific region.

"There are no other current or emerging technologies – or combination of technologies – that can yet deliver the capability currently provided by a main battle tank," an Australian Department of Defence spokesperson told Defense News.

Brigadier James Davis, the Australian Army's director general of Future Land Warfare, told Defense News that crew skills – "the basics of warfare, camouflage, concealment" – remain as important as ever amid the advent of loitering munitions and similar threats.

"That's how Western armored vehicles – and Australian armored vehicles – crewed by Western crews and Australian crews, are going to survive on the battlefield; a combination of training, tactics, technology and systems," he said.

The tank donation to Kyiv, worth approximately A$245 million (US$164 million), will "bolster the armed forces of Ukraine in its fight against Russia's illegal and immoral invasion," Canberra said.

Australia's Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Pat Conroy commented, "These tanks will deliver more firepower and mobility to the Ukrainian armed forces, and complement the support provided by our partners for Ukraine."

In response to the news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tweeted, "I'm especially grateful for Australia's brave decision to provide 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks for our defense against Russian aggression."

American permission was required for this handover, but Ukrainian crews are already familiar with the platform after the U.S. promised to donate 31 M1A1 SA Abrams to Ukraine in January 2023. Perhaps half have been destroyed to date.

Australia will retain ten M1A1 tanks, and these will assist in the transition to its own fleet of M1A2s. Under Project Land 907, approved in January 2022, the Australian Army is receiving 75 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks, 29 M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicles, 17 M1074 Joint Assault Bridges and six additional M88A2 armored recovery vehicles.

Under the Australian military's restructure announced in 2023′s Defence Strategic Review, the Army's 3rd Brigade in Townsville will be the sole repository of this heavy-armor influx.

To date, Australian military assistance for Ukraine is valued at more than A$1.3 billion, and it includes Bushmaster protected vehicles, M113AS4 armored personnel carriers and M777 howitzers.
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Ukraine receives tranche from IMF - Prime Minister​


Ukraine has received another tranche of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The funds will be used to cover important non-military budget expenditures, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal says.

“We received this tranche thanks to the successful fifth revision of the EFF program of $15.6 billion,” the Prime Minister of Ukraine writes.

This is the third IMF tranche since the beginning of the year. Ukraine received $900 million in March and $2.2 billion in July. The total amount since the beginning of the year has reached $4.2 billion. Another tranche of $1.1 billion is expected in December.

Ukraine's agreement with the IMF on a $15.6 billion EFF program was approved in March 2023. The program has already received six tranches totaling about $8.7 billion.

Changes in plans

In its October memorandum, the IMF changed its forecast for the duration of the war in Ukraine and the assistance to Kyiv from its partners. The Fund expects that in the baseline scenario, the war will end at the end of 2025, and Ukraine will need $151.4 billion in 2023-2027.

As a result, the IMF has increased its financing for Ukraine in 2025. Previously, the IMF planned to provide Ukraine with $1.835 billion in 2025 in two tranches of $917.5 million (at the current dollar to SDR exchange rate) in March and August.

Now, it is planned to disburse $2.712 billion in four tranches: $917.5 million in March, $809.6 million in June, $539.8 million in August, and $445.3 million in December.
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Submarine-hunting planes to patrol Atlantic in new NATO pact to counter Russia amid WW3 fears​


As Russia's threat over Europe escalates, a fresh defense pact between Britain and Germany aims to bolster security in the North Atlantic.

This agreement will enable German submarine-hunting patrols to operate from a base in Scotland, according to officials. The pact, which is being hailed as the first of its kind, will be signed by defense ministers from both countries in London on Wednesday.

Boris Pistorius, the German Defense Minister, stated, "The U.K. and Germany are moving closer together. With projects across the air, land, sea, and cyber domains, we will jointly increase our defense capabilities, thereby strengthening the European pillar within NATO."

He added, "It is particularly important to me that we cooperate even more closely to strengthen NATO's eastern flank and to close critical capability gaps, for instance in the field of long-range strike weapons."

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has significantly impacted global markets, food security, and energy, and continues to pose a threat to stability across Europe and the European Union.

Under this new agreement, German submarine hunter aircraft will "periodically" operate from a Scottish military base to patrol the North Atlantic. Both nations will collaborate closely to safeguard the crucial underwater cables in the North Sea, reports the Express US.

The UK and Germany have plans to cooperate in creating long-range strike weapons that can travel further than the UK's Storm Shadow missiles. Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, is also anticipated to open a factory for producing artillery gun barrels using British steel.

As part of the agreement, British and German forces committed to NATO in Estonia and Lithuania are expected to work together more closely. Officials aim to ensure "land forces on NATO's eastern flank remain a strong deterrent and are ready to fight and win if required."

The two allies are also likely to develop new land-based and aerial drones together. British Defence Minister John Healey described the agreement as "a milestone moment".

He said, "It secures unprecedented levels of new cooperation with the German Armed Forces and industry, bringing benefits to our shared security and prosperity, protecting our shared values and boosting our defense industrial bases."
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S. Korea's nuclear envoy says Russia-N. Korea ties evolving into 'full-scale collusion'​


SEOUL, Oct. 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's chief nuclear envoy has said the relations between Russia and North Korea are developing into a "full-scale, escalating collusion," calling for building "irreversible" cooperation networks among like-minded countries to respond to the threats.

Cho Koo-rae, vice minister for strategy and intelligence at the South Korean foreign ministry, who doubles as the top nuclear envoy, made the remarks in Canada on Wednesday (local time), following confirmations from South Korea and the United States that North Korea is sending troops to fight alongside Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Washington gave its first assessment the same day affirming that North Korea sent at least 3,000 troops to eastern Russia earlier this month, and they are likely to engage in combat after undergoing training.

The U.S. assessment is in line with that of South Korea's intelligence that about the same number of North Korean soldiers are believed to have been dispatched to Russia, with a total of 10,000 troops to be deployed by December.

"This relationship is evolving into a full-scale, escalating collusion, raising serious concerns for the global community," Cho said at a symposium in Canada.

"We must treat the deployment of the North Korean troops with utmost seriousness. ... We must prepare every possible measure to protect international peace and security," he said.

Cho was in Ottawa to attend a public-private forum co-hosted by Canada, the U.S. and Japan.

Cho called for building a strong cooperation network among like-minded countries to ensure a united response against North Korean threats and its "adventuristic gambles."

"We are witnessing ... a growing connection between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security," Cho said. "These linkages highlight that the North Korean issue challenges the very foundations of the current international order."

"We must continue to build irreversible bilateral and multilateral cooperation networks to strengthen our collective response," he said.
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"Anatomy of the Deep State" - Unsettling look at American Poli
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