Official Tom Brady QB1 Bandwagon (1 Viewer)

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with each hit, hurry, and sack, BB's window of returning to the SB slowly closes..

That window sure is closing slowly.... they were in the Super Bowl last year Dude has been in ~50% of the super bowls in the decade since taking the reigns as a starting QB. Has that ever even happened before?!

 

[David Yudkin]

Including Brady's stats from years ago doesn't make much sense to me. Since 2007 (when the Pats made a concerted effort to have real receiving threats), he's averaged:

23.1 completions, 34.7 attempts, 283.3 passing yards, 8.16 ypa, 2.35 TD, 0.57 INT, 24.1 fantasy points per game.

That works out to 370-555-4533-38-9 for a full season with 386 fantasy points. That to me seems like a better baseline of what to start from and adjust from than his career averages.

 

[Shutout]

Including Brady's stats from years ago doesn't make much sense to me. Since 2007 (when the Pats made a concerted effort to have real receiving threats), he's averaged:23.1 completions, 34.7 attempts, 283.3 passing yards, 8.16 ypa, 2.35 TD, 0.57 INT, 24.1 fantasy points per game.That works out to 370-555-4533-38-9 for a full season with 386 fantasy points. That to me seems like a better baseline of what to start from and adjust from than his career averages.

Agree completely and good point. Its pretty obvious that the Brady we have now is not the guy from years ago. When he was young and the Pats were winning Super Bowls, he was well known and talked as one of the best in the game but he was truly more in that Troy Aikman kind of range. Great in Real life; decent in fantasy. But now, and kinda ironic, he's morphed into a Fantasy demi-god the past 5 years and the real life success has been just short.But, to me, there is NO DOUBT that when you want to talk about Brady, you really have to look at the past 5 years and not the complete career when you are talking his fantasy value.

 

[packseasontix]

Last 4 Years QB FFB Scoring Rank:

Rodgers - 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st

Brees - 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd

Brady - Injured, 9th, 3rd, 3rd

So wouldn't that mean some one did finish ahead of Rodgers for those two seasons? I rank Rodgers as QB1 as well, but all this thread is doing is predicting Tom Brady will finish as QB1 which isn't exactly a crazy prediction.

Since Brady startedBrady - 20th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, INJ (8th), 9th, 3rd, 3rd

Would the above list then tell you only 9% of the time Brady would finish first, and in the year he came in first he threw for 50 TDs. If you can guarntee Brady will throw the NFL record for TDs again I guess more power to you, but even if he did that he doesn't even tie Rodgers score from last year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

with each hit, hurry, and sack, BB's window of returning to the SB slowly closes..

That window sure is closing slowly.... they were in the Super Bowl last year Dude has been in ~50% of the super bowls in the decade since taking the reigns as a starting QB. Has that ever even happened before?!

maybe he meant win a SB the AFC is very weak, as the Pitt and Balt defense age, and Peyton switches teams, who can beat NE in the AFC playoffs? Houston? NYJ? The NFC is loaded and I think the stronger conference. and if Brady sees blue helmets with little white ny on it, how will they perform again?

 

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with each hit, hurry, and sack, BB's window of returning to the SB slowly closes..

That window sure is closing slowly.... they were in the Super Bowl last year Dude has been in ~50% of the super bowls in the decade since taking the reigns as a starting QB. Has that ever even happened before?!

maybe he meant win a SB the AFC is very weak, as the Pitt and Balt defense age, and Peyton switches teams, who can beat NE in the AFC playoffs? Houston? NYJ?

The NFC is loaded and I think the stronger conference. and if Brady sees blue helmets with little white ny on it, how will they perform again?

Sorry he said "returning to the SB"

 

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If you can guarntee Brady will throw the NFL record for TDs again I guess more power to you, but even if he did that he doesn't even tie Rodgers score from last year.

who is guaranteeing that brady will throw for a record on TD's again. The two are not directly correlated. brady will not have to throw 51 TD's to finish as the #1QB.

 

[packseasontix]

If you can guarntee Brady will throw the NFL record for TDs again I guess more power to you, but even if he did that he doesn't even tie Rodgers score from last year.

who is guaranteeing that brady will throw for a record on TD's again. The two are not directly correlated. brady will not have to throw 51 TD's to finish as the #1QB.

Do you think Rodgers will take a step backwards then next year? We are talking about 50 TDs total and he doesn't mirror Rodgers production from last year. So even with a slight step backwards from Rodgers, Brady still has to increase his production by quite a bit to make up the gap.What do you think Rodgers' and Brady's output will be this year then?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Brandon Lloyd is the best outside receiver he has had since Moss.

The running game is nothing to write home about.

Belichick and Brady have already shown that they will not let up on defenses.

The Patriots defense will get them into plenty of shootouts.

I"m not buying it.look, Brady was sacked 32 times, and absorbed 69 hits last season..in 2010, he was sacked 25 times

2009 sacked 16 times.trend is that he's getting sacked more and more each and every year..is that because he's older/less mobile, the line is older, or both?

you simply cannot drop the statuesque Tom Brady back to pass 611 times again, he'll get killed..and that # is WAY off his career average 483 att/yr.

his passing yardage total was WAY off, 5235 yards vs. 3634 career avg..

his TD avg is 'just' 27.7/yr..even after throwing for 5235 yards last season,he could only muster 39 TDs..you'd think that for 5235 yards you'd at least too another 50 TDs, right?

just because McDaniels is around doesn't necessarily mean that, by default, Brady is going to throw for 4800 yards and 50 Tds again.and why is everyone so gaga over Lloyd?

like you said,he gets 'his' in bunches..there's no guarantee that he goes off in NE this season..

people keep making the point that Rodgers has concussion problems, but they conveniently forget Brady has had shoulder problems, a blown knee, etc..and he's 35 on Aug 3rd.

to think that BB, a coach who knows his window to win with Brady is closing, is going to let a 35 year old immobile Brady, his star QB and his best shot to win another SB title, drop back another 611 times , is just plain nuts..without a doubt, there will be a renewed focus on the running game in NE..

Brady's stats across the board will be slashed...he'll revert back to his career avg in numbers

3700-4000 yards..27-30 Tds..

the AFC East is about to become a very tough division, Bills are much improved, Jets are a capable team, Miami will have a new offense and their defense is getting better..

Brady isn't going to have the luxury of 6 cakewalk games/yr anymore..

with each hit, hurry, and sack, BB's window of returning to the SB slowly closes..

loooool without a doubt.you are incorrect.

post started off strong, though, and we may have a few protection issues, but we'll see about that.

and I don't know wtf you're talking about -- 6 cakewalk games.

you must be an nfc fan.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I think Green Bay comes back a little bit, New Orleans takes a pretty significant step back, and New England improves slightly. I think Brady is the number 1 fantasy QB right now too, just edging out Rodgers and Stafford. But in dynasty I have Rodgers above him by a pretty good margin. He's quite a bit younger.

Why has NO taken a step back? Brees and Carmichael did extremely well together. Meacham is gone, but that doesn't really make a big difference. There's no logic behind this, yet I keep seeing it everywhere.

 

[packseasontix]

I think Green Bay comes back a little bit, New Orleans takes a pretty significant step back, and New England improves slightly. I think Brady is the number 1 fantasy QB right now too, just edging out Rodgers and Stafford. But in dynasty I have Rodgers above him by a pretty good margin. He's quite a bit younger.

Why has NO taken a step back? Brees and Carmichael did extremely well together. Meacham is gone, but that doesn't really make a big difference. There's no logic behind this, yet I keep seeing it everywhere.

Could it be they have their head coach gone all season? I don't care if the play caller is still there, the head coach will be missed. If the saints don't miss a beat I know who wouldn't be back in 2013. Also when you look the saints they really can't pass much more than they already did last year, also I don't see him surpassing his completion % from last year either.Who know though I would still take Bree's over Brady as well this year.

 

[BigBadAl]

Some of my own facts to add to the debate.

I tracked the performance last year of Stud starts (top 5 performance in the week in my 16 team league) and found some stats on quality starts for each position.

Last year - (admittedly I think the outlier year for Rodgers) Rodgers was a Stud in 14 of 15 games or 94%

Brady was a stud in 56% of games

Brees a stud in 75% of games

Next best - even during a terrible year was Vick at 54% of games he played he was a stud.

Quality games (17 points or a top end starter performance) I found stats for http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/quality-games.cfm and I see the FBG have done there own too.

Rodgers - 86.7%

Brees - 78.1%

Brady - 65.6%

Vick - 80% (3rd behind Rodgers and Newton)

What this tells me is that Rodgers is consistent, as his overall ranks show. Brady has been a little hot and cold (although his cold weeks are still mostly QB1) However, I agree with Sig, I feel a perfect storm brewing. I've gone back and forth over Rodgers and Brady all off season. I can't see the Packers D being as bad this year. They were shown up in the finals due to the lack of a run game. I think they go a bit more with the run.

Rodgers threw for 45 TD's last year. The previous 3 years were 28, 30 and 28. I think last year is looking more and more like a career year for him.

Brady in the same period - 50, injured, 28, 36, 39 (last year) I think Lloyd makes that much of a difference that will mean more total yards. I also think Hernandez will be dominant this year. The Pats keep adding TE's (Shiancoe today)

I wouldn't be upset with either guy, but I'm going to take Brady this year.

My 2¢

 

[KellysHeroes]

Brady's injuries are going to start catching up to him, it seems hes always a little knipped up. Redraft wise I wouldn't let this bother me but dynasty wise its getting close to that time to move on.

 

[Tanner9919]

Patriots play the 3rd toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 5th toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for fantasy weeks 14-17.

Patriots play the 10th toughest run schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play THE toughest run schedule for 2012 fantasy weeks 14-17..

Patriots play the 3rd toughest WR schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 11th toughest WR schedule for fantasy playoffs weeks 14-17.

just moy opinion, there's no doubt about it, the Patriots numbers will down, across the board, for the 2012 season.

that's not to say they will be chumps , but the additions on defense will help them tremendously..and I think the days of

scoring 40+ and dropping 350+ yards passing with 50 Tds, are long gone..

they're going to grind out more wins than in past seasons, relying on a strong(er) defense and more ball control than the chuck-n-duck of years past...

they're not going to drop Brady back to pass 611 times ever again..

he's more likely to finish near his career averages , some 3900+/- yards passing, 28-32 tds, than he is to finish with 4500+ and 37+ tds..

for my money, Rodgers is the de facto #1 QB selection,and is also the #1 overall pick..he's no more likely to get hurt than the 35 year old statuesque Brady is.

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=m&sortby=WR

 

[Instinctive]

Patriots play the 3rd toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 5th toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for fantasy weeks 14-17.

Patriots play the 10th toughest run schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play THE toughest run schedule for 2012 fantasy weeks 14-17..

Patriots play the 3rd toughest WR schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 11th toughest WR schedule for fantasy playoffs weeks 14-17.

no doubt about it the Patriots numbers will down, across the board, for the 2012 season.

that's not to say they will be chumps , but the additions on defense will help them tremendously..and I think the days of

scoring 40+ and dropping 350+ yards passing with 50 Tds, are long gone..

they're going to grind out more wins than in past seasons...

they're not going to drop Brady 611 times..

he's more likely to finish near his career averages , some 3900+/- yards passing, 28-32 tds, than he is to finish with 4500+ and 37+ tds..

for my money, Rodgers is the de facto #1 QB selection,and is also the #1 overall pick..he's no more likely to get hurt than the 35 year old statuesque Brady is.

All of these stats deserve a caveat. Please let me know which one applies:1. "Based on my forward looking strength of schedule projections..."

2. "Based on last year's defense stats..."

3. "Based on _____'s strength of schedule projections..."

Because we do realize defenses change year to year. Of course we realize that.

 

[David Yudkin]

Patriots play the 3rd toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 5th toughest schedule for a QB ( Brady) for fantasy weeks 14-17.

Patriots play the 10th toughest run schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play THE toughest run schedule for 2012 fantasy weeks 14-17..

Patriots play the 3rd toughest WR schedule for the entire 2012 season.

Patriots play the 11th toughest WR schedule for fantasy playoffs weeks 14-17.

just moy opinion, there's no doubt about it, the Patriots numbers will down, across the board, for the 2012 season.

that's not to say they will be chumps , but the additions on defense will help them tremendously..and I think the days of

scoring 40+ and dropping 350+ yards passing with 50 Tds, are long gone..

they're going to grind out more wins than in past seasons, relying on a strong(er) defense and more ball control than the chuck-n-duck of years past...

they're not going to drop Brady back to pass 611 times ever again..

he's more likely to finish near his career averages , some 3900+/- yards passing, 28-32 tds, than he is to finish with 4500+ and 37+ tds..

for my money, Rodgers is the de facto #1 QB selection,and is also the #1 overall pick..he's no more likely to get hurt than the 35 year old statuesque Brady is.

http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=m&sortby=WR

I would also point out that using strength of defense from last year when who knows who those teams played is apples to oranges. For example, even look at defenses from last year (or any other year). Even good defenses got spanked by good offenses and many times the defenses could not stop them. Drew Brees had 462/4 against the Niners in the playoffs. MIA had a Top 8 pass defense . . . and Brady torched the Phins for over 500 yards in a game to start the season last year.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

The Football Outsiders predict the Patriots to play the 5th easiest overall schedule in 2012, FWIW

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The Football Outsiders predict the Patriots to play the 5th easiest overall schedule in 2012, FWIW