With two winning weeks in a row, it seems that we're starting to get things rolling in the right direction again. We've managed to go 6-3 ATS over that time span, despite the fact that my system has had such a slow start (5-6 ATS). I'm scratching my head a bit over why it's started so badly, but I trust it'll turn itself around sooner or later. So far, system plays that I have not made official plays are 0-3 ATS. Unless some of these system plays that I'm not upgrading start winning, I see no reason to keep posting them up. What good does it good for me to show system plays that just turn out to be losers? I'll monitor it for a week or two more, but I may be making a change in the coming weeks. Without further ado, here are my plays for Week 10:* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50 I emailed out this play earlier in the week because of how much it jumped off the page at me. The Colts and Patriots have had astounding defenses so far, with Indianapolis having the best scoring efficiency defense in the league, and New England's ranking third best. As I explained a bit last week, I still do not think that Tom Brady is fully back, as the Patriots' red zone struggles continue. I expect this to be yet another week where they have to settle for a lot of field goals. On the Colts' offense side of the ball, this is a one dimensional offense that cannot run the ball very effectively. Teams in the NFL are starting to figure this out, which could be part of the reason Manning only has one touchdown pass over his last two games. I expect this game to stay a bit lower scoring, not turning into the shootout that a lot of people are expecting.* Green Bay Packers +3* Cowboys/Packers OVER 47.5 This feels like a letdown game for the Cowboys in my opinion. They're coming off of a huge win on the road against a division rival, and now go on the road again to face a Packers team that I really don't think is as bad as it looks. Despite all of the sacks (with that yardage factored in), Green Bay is still the 8th best team in the league in yards per pass attempt, which I find remarkable. Their run defense is currently doing a great job as well, as they're ranked second in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed. I think they can limit this Cowboys' rushing attack, turning this into a battle through the air, something which would be very helpful to the over. In the end, I think we're going to see a bit of a stinker out of Romo as he has a couple costly turnovers, and the Packers should capitalize and win this game outright in a high scoring affair.* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43 Miami's passing offense has been awful as of late, but luckily for them they're going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's wildcat offense should see plenty of success against the third worst rushing defense in the NFL, and the passing game should wake up a bit as well. Considering that the Dolphins are the fourth best team in the league at scoring efficiency, I expect them to put up a good number of points. I don't think we'll need more than 14 points out of the Bucs to push this total over, and they should be capable of providing us with that.* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47 As seen in last week's Giants game, all the Chargers are capable of doing is throwing the ball. They had some costly drops to kill some drives, but I don't think that will be an issue this week. The Eagles may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but I think they'll struggle a bit against the passing attack of the Chargers. The Eagles also have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Chargers' defense isn't nearly as good as the Eagles'. Both teams will be able to put up their fair share of points, this feels like a 24-27 type of game, possibly higher.ATS System Plays (3-4):* Packers +3* Chiefs +1* Seahawks +9* Saints -13.5 Totals System Plays (2-2):* Packers/Cowboys OVER 47.5* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50* Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 36.5* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47 As always, good luck to everyone this week!
