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***Official Week 6 NFL Wagering Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWick
- Start date
Raiders... 
TheWick
Footballguy
Not usually the best way to betI came home from the bar last night and got a little "teaser crazy"NO -1.5DAL +1NO -1CAR +7JAC +9.5NO -1MIN -7CHI +3NO -1NYJ -1SF +10.5man I sure hope NO shows up tomorrow
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Usually they are pretty good, and this was mostly my fault - my last post was over the line. Sorry to whoever I was writing to. I really was just trying to help you and get some points across (there is no such thing as a lock or an 80% play, and manage your money intelligently), but it was obviously not done in a classy way.Raider Nation said:
ceisenhower66
Footballguy
Did anyone put any bets on the SD/NE game? What do you have?
I have SD -5 and Over 44. Two missed FGs and a goalline stand =
for my over bet. Ugh.
I have SD -5 and Over 44. Two missed FGs and a goalline stand =
for my over bet. Ugh.
Last edited by a moderator:
LaneOfSteel™
Footballguy
So whats it looking like tonight? For some reason I think the Browns make this one interesting, Im leaning that way right now. Someone please talk me out of betting on the Brownies!
Check out this parlay from yesterday:
Parlay (3 Teams) 10/12/08 12:44 ET
bet 5.00 to win 152.78 (paid 157.78) Result: Wager Won
Falcons(Atlanta) +125
Cardinals(Arizona) +175
Rams(StLouis) +410
Too bad I'm a wuss or maybe I would have actually bet some money on that, but $5 to win $152.78 sure did make those 3 last second victories exciting!
Check out this parlay from yesterday:
Parlay (3 Teams) 10/12/08 12:44 ET
bet 5.00 to win 152.78 (paid 157.78) Result: Wager Won
Falcons(Atlanta) +125
Cardinals(Arizona) +175
Rams(StLouis) +410
Too bad I'm a wuss or maybe I would have actually bet some money on that, but $5 to win $152.78 sure did make those 3 last second victories exciting!
JGalligan
Footballguy
I took the under (46) for a substantial sum of money, and then nearly had a heart attack as Matt Cassel was doing his best impersonation of a courageous lion while driving the team down the field against a garbage time defense -- almost determined to hit the over. I was seriously considering that Cassel had a substantial sum of money on the over after that performance.It looked suspiciously like he was trying to say, "Hey look at me! Keep me as the starter! I can almost score a TD at the end of the game against a garbage time defense!"Oh Kevin O'Connell, where art thou?Did anyone put any bets on the SD/NE game? What do you have?I have SD -5 and Over 44. Two missed FGs and a goalline stand =for my over bet. Ugh.
JGalligan
Footballguy
I took the Browns +9 at SI, as well as the over (44 an hour ago -- its going up, though). Then I threw down 10 bucks on the Browns money line because, well, why not? I doubt they'll win outright but I do think it's going to be surprisingly close -- and 9 points, off a bye week, at home, on MONDAY NIGHT is too tantalizing to pass up.So whats it looking like tonight? For some reason I think the Browns make this one interesting, Im leaning that way right now. Someone please talk me out of betting on the Brownies!Check out this parlay from yesterdayarlay (3 Teams) 10/12/08 12:44 ETbet 5.00 to win 152.78 (paid 157.78) Result: Wager WonFalcons(Atlanta) +125Cardinals(Arizona) +175Rams(StLouis) +410 Too bad I'm a wuss or maybe I would have actually bet some money on that, but $5 to win $152.78 sure did make those 3 last second victories exciting!
What happened to your threads, RN? I thought I remember you posting your weekly lineup last year...A few numbers.
1
1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record
105
105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.
* Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.
* If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.
* If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points
* In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12
* Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.
* In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.
* Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.
* Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog
* Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.
* 1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.
This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:
* started Ryan Fitzpatrick,
* turned the ball over 5 times,
* and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter
It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.
I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.
Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.
The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-...0,4854389.story
Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.
Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.
1
1 is the number of teams w/ a winning record that Cleveland beat last year enroute to their "dominant" 10-6 record
105
105 is the number of losses combined that the teams Cleveland beat had on the season. Their total record was 55-105, or roughly 6-11 on average.
* Road Favs on MNF since 2005 have gone 11-4 ATS, covering by an average of 10 points.
* If a non-divisional game, 6-3 ATS.
* If non-divisional and the line is more than a FG but not double digits, 5-0 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 18 points
* In fact, since 2003, road favorites on a line of more than a FG but less than 10 in a non-divisional game have covered 8-1 ATS and 8-1 SU, winning on average by 18 and covering by 12
* Since 2003, the Giants are 10-3 ATS as road favorites. If the line is over 3.5 points, the Giants are 4-2 ATS, covering an 8.5 point average line by 5 points.
* In non-divisional road games since 2005, the Giants are 13-5 ATS including 8-2 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, going 9-1 SU and winning on average by 12 points.
* Since 2005, the Giants are 3-1 ATS on Monday Night, including 2-0 as a favorite. Unders went 3-1 ATS in those games.
* Since 2005, the Browns are 1-3 ATS as a home dog
* Since 2005, the Giants are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in a non-divisional game against a team with a losing record, covering a 6.5 avg line by 5 points.
* 1 win teams coming off a week 5 bye are 2-8 ATS since 2004. If underdogs, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by 19 points and failing to cover by 13.
This is the Giants only MNF game this season. Yes, they have played some easier games this season, but they have performed well. The Browns, on the other hand, have looked bad against some overrated teams (Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens) and their only win came off a game where a 0-6 team:
* started Ryan Fitzpatrick,
* turned the ball over 5 times,
* and still had a lead heading into the 4th quarter
It took 17 4th quarter points by Cleveland to earn a 8 point victory.
I also lean towards the Under here, but will play on the NYG.
Again, this is not the absolute concrete strongest play on my weekly slate of games. In fact, I did not consider it until I performed the research today. While a highly public play, it will take a perfect game from Cleveland to pull out a cover. I have heard from many that Cleveland wins this game. While anything is possible, I see the NYG looking to use tonight's game to stamp themselves on the map as the team to beat. One concern is the kick return ability of Joshua Cribbs, he is a very dangerous weapon.
The Giants have used motivation to get fired up for last season's Super Bowl run, and for some reason, Cleveland was bored in their bye week and contributed some bulletin board material for the Super Bowl Champs:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/ny-...0,4854389.story
Tonight, as rare and as much as I hate to swallow it, I will take the public play and take NYG to win by 8. Late money has come in on Cle to drive this line down. Normally that is a bad thing but it won't be the first nor the last time I ignore line movement and take advantage of a line I think is a good one.
Grab -7 if you can, it may be an option for you. If not, 7.5.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Teaser - 1.1 units to win 1
Cleveland +15', o36'
GL all.
Cleveland +15', o36'
GL all.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Early week 7 plays:
Den/NE o46'
NYJ/Oak u43'
GB +1'
NO +3
SD pk
Bal/Mia o34
Ind/GB u49
Den +4
Min/Chi u40
I've been only listing a few of my plays here per week so far. I believe I'm 11-11 on posted plays, but I'm actually 20-15 overall, so I'm just going to post them all now
Lines are getting tighter, most of these are slim margins imo, and about half have already moved to reflect that.
Den/NE o46'
NYJ/Oak u43'
GB +1'
NO +3
SD pk
Bal/Mia o34
Ind/GB u49
Den +4
Min/Chi u40
I've been only listing a few of my plays here per week so far. I believe I'm 11-11 on posted plays, but I'm actually 20-15 overall, so I'm just going to post them all now
Lines are getting tighter, most of these are slim margins imo, and about half have already moved to reflect that.
TheWick
Footballguy
CLE is gonna finish off a 6 taem parlay for me! WOOHOO!!!
Ticket Number:
Accepted Date: Oct 12, 2008 12:39 PM - EST
Graded Date: N/A
Wager Type: Parlay(6 team)
Wager Status: Pending
Risk: $10.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $533.87 (USD)
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-
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Description: Football NFL - 208 New York Jets -9½ -110 for Game Football NFL - 215 Miami Dolphins +3 -105 for Game Football NFL - 217 St Louis Rams +12 -110 for Game Football NFL - 219 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -105 for Game Football NFL - 225 Green Bay Packers Ev for Game Football NFL - 230 Cleveland Browns +7½ -110 for Game
Ticket Number:
Accepted Date: Oct 12, 2008 12:39 PM - EST
Graded Date: N/A
Wager Type: Parlay(6 team)
Wager Status: Pending
Risk: $10.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $533.87 (USD)
-
-
-
Description: Football NFL - 208 New York Jets -9½ -110 for Game Football NFL - 215 Miami Dolphins +3 -105 for Game Football NFL - 217 St Louis Rams +12 -110 for Game Football NFL - 219 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -105 for Game Football NFL - 225 Green Bay Packers Ev for Game Football NFL - 230 Cleveland Browns +7½ -110 for Game
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