'David Yudkin said:
'pittstownkiller said:
'David Yudkin said:
All that GB and NO showed me is that you can't expect to turn the ball over 4 or 5 times and expect to have a great chance of winning. IF NE doesn't turn the ball over much against BAL (say once or twice), they should again be able to rack up a fair amount of points. They also play excellent field position football, and the Ravens have not had many long drives.
Why the turnovers; a ball control offense would prevent most of these. I honestly think that GNB and Nor will rethink balancing their teams and strengthening their defenses.
Obviously teams will look to improve their weaknesses. Part of why their defensive numbers were ranked so low is that they were ahead so much teams had no choice but to pass most of the game. NE, GB, and NO were the Top 3 in terms of passing attempts allowed.So I am not really sure what you suggest these teams do. Not score so much so opponents don't get behind and therefore they could run more?
I've seen this argument ("they were ahead so much teams had no choice but to pass most of the game") used several times this year and I don't think it is a good one. The effect of facing more passes is only enough to nudge one's results, it isn't enough to make a good defense look bad.
2011
The Pats and Saints half-time leads ranked 6th and 9th in 2011. Their end of 3rd quarter leads climbed, the Pats to 2nd and the Saints to 4th. The 49ers were 3rd and within 0.3 points a game of the Pats, but they still managed to finish with a middle of the road pass defense. The Packers were #1 in both categories.
Historically
The 2011 Pats since the merger ranked 223rd at the half and 37th after the 3rd quarter. The Saints were 125th at the half and 54th after the 3rd quarter. Wholly unremarkable leads historically, no reason to think they should finish so close to dead last if those other 50 teams didn't.
The 2011 Packers were at best a footnote historically. Since the merger, the Packers ranked 20th in margin at halftime, and 5th in margin after the 3rd quarter.
Comparatively, the top ten teams in 3rd quarter lead finished
6th, 19th, 20th,
28th (out of 28 teams),
32nd (2011 Packers), 11th,
5th,
7th, 14th, and
5th in their season.
So amongst the ten best ever teams when it comes to leads, 4 teams were top ten in pass defense, 4 were ranked between 11 and 20, and the 1983 Redskins and 2011 Packers were dead last.
Post-cap teams finished 6th, 11th, 19th and 20th plus the Packers, while the other dead last team was pre-cap, so the results are not dominated by the salary cap (which makes it tougher to have a dominant O and D at the same time), though I'd argue it contributes a little.
So to summarize, teams who played with bigger leads than the Packers, and much, much bigger leads than the Saints and Pats, regularly finish with at least decent and often very good pass defenses. So I don't buy the argument. I'm sure they rank
a little worse due to facing more pass attempts. But not so much so that being dead last in pass defense is understandable. They need to have played poor pass defense in combination with facing more attempts, to accomplish that. The 49ers had leads better than the Saints, and the Pats 3rd quarter leads were only 0.3 points per game more than the 49ers. Yet the 49ers finished with an average ranked pass defense.