Opportunity knocking: Malcolm Floyd (1 Viewer)

[Zeff]

[*]Philip Rivers is GOING to get his. Guy's in the 4000/30 neighborhood every year, come hell or high water.

[*]Vincent Brown, who was the emerging breakout candidate, just broke his ankle.

[*]Rivers and Meachem simply don't look sympatico out there, so it's getting hard to see Meachem emerging as a target horse this year.

[*]The run game remains in disarray, so thinking, "Wow, with targets this mediocre, I'll bet the Bolts go run-heavy," doesn't really wash.

[*]Gates looks healthy, and is going to get his, but is having the defense look TE first really bad for a Malcolm Floyd?

[*]Floyd, last six games down the stretch last year...5/107...4/108...2/29...5/96...6/95...7/127...and 4TD's over the stretch.

In short...

Floyd has Rivers's trust, has a recent history of being SD's most successful in-game receiver, and with Brown out, looks to be the only major viable candidate to be the workhorse wide receiver for a team that's going to put up silly passing numbers.

Yes, there's always injury risk with Floyd. Not enough reason to let him continue to go at his current ADP...currently WR41 in MFL.

The other guys who emerged to tear it up to this degree late last year...Julio and Percy...are draft day darlings. You can get this guy practically free. I see way more potential here than in the Torrey Smith/Reggie Wayne part of the draft. Target around WR25 before the masses come around on the post-Brown injury landscape.

:draftchanger:

 

[otb_lifer]

Had a few monster games during the VJax holdout a couple seasons ago ... was Rivers best season, iirc, and that was without VJax for 12 or so games, and Gates hobbled most of the season as well. Floyd stepped it up then, can see a return to that form, especially with a relatively healthy Gates.

Still seeing Meach with higher adp in some quarters ... hope that trend continues thru my drafts ... would love Floyd as a wr3 in a heartbeat.

 

[Acrobat7]

I drafted him as WR 4/5 and am really looking forward to his season. However, I do have some concerns, since I'm under the impression that he doesn't play through injuries/gets nicked a lot. Dunno... just my two cents.

 

[12punch]

stop bumping this thread, plz.

people in my league might read this board.

 

[TS Garp]

[*]Philip Rivers is GOING to get his. Guy's in the 4000/30 neighborhood every year, come hell or high water.

[*]Vincent Brown, who was the emerging breakout candidate, just broke his ankle.

[*]Rivers and Meachem simply don't look sympatico out there, so it's getting hard to see Meachem emerging as a target horse this year.

[*]The run game remains in disarray, so thinking, "Wow, with targets this mediocre, I'll bet the Bolts go run-heavy," doesn't really wash.

[*]Gates looks healthy, and is going to get his, but is having the defense look TE first really bad for a Malcolm Floyd?

[*]Floyd, last six games down the stretch last year...5/107...4/108...2/29...5/96...6/95...7/127...and 4TD's over the stretch.

In short...

Floyd has Rivers's trust, has a recent history of being SD's most successful in-game receiver, and with Brown out, looks to be the only major viable candidate to be the workhorse wide receiver for a team that's going to put up silly passing numbers.

Yes, there's always injury risk with Floyd. Not enough reason to let him continue to go at his current ADP...currently WR41 in MFL.

The other guys who emerged to tear it up to this degree late last year...Julio and Percy...are draft day darlings. You can get this guy practically free. I see way more potential here than in the Torrey Smith/Reggie Wayne part of the draft. Target around WR25 before the masses come around on the post-Brown injury landscape.

:draftchanger:

I posted something similar in the thread about Rivers and the Chargers' receivers. The injury risk is very real -- he's only played a full season once. But it's funny to see people label him as a guy who isn't that exciting or will never be more than a fringe starter. His upside is significantly higher than that, especially with the Brown injury. 70/1200/8 is attainable.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Floyd would be a top 10 WR if he ever stayed healthy. Problem is that it's likely never going to happen.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Gates is the only Charger worth getting this year

 

[whatadai]

Gates is the only Charger worth getting this year

You forgot Rivers?EDIT: And Meachem if you can get him late.

 

[oPlaiD]

Another thing to keep in mind is that SD has a great early schedule of soft defenses. You could pick up Floyd at the draft, get great production out of him, and trade him for a premium at the BYE week, especially if you are worried about injury concerns.

Either way he's going to out-produce his ADP. Just isn't much of a sexy pick.

 

[finito]

Gates is the only Charger worth getting this year

Disagree with this big time. There will be several fantasy options on this team.

 

[Shutout]

If I were hellbent on getting a Charger receiver it would be Gates. He is the one that makes the most sense to be a monster with Rivers this year.

He's done it before, he's proven, the offense already runs through him, he's healthier than he has been, everyone else are either new (Meachem and Royal) or often injured (Floyd).

 

[JamesTheScot]

[*]Philip Rivers is GOING to get his. Guy's in the 4000/30 neighborhood every year, come hell or high water.

[*]Vincent Brown, who was the emerging breakout candidate, just broke his ankle.

[*]Rivers and Meachem simply don't look sympatico out there, so it's getting hard to see Meachem emerging as a target horse this year.

[*]The run game remains in disarray, so thinking, "Wow, with targets this mediocre, I'll bet the Bolts go run-heavy," doesn't really wash.

[*]Gates looks healthy, and is going to get his, but is having the defense look TE first really bad for a Malcolm Floyd?

[*]Floyd, last six games down the stretch last year...5/107...4/108...2/29...5/96...6/95...7/127...and 4TD's over the stretch.

In short...

Floyd has Rivers's trust, has a recent history of being SD's most successful in-game receiver, and with Brown out, looks to be the only major viable candidate to be the workhorse wide receiver for a team that's going to put up silly passing numbers.

Yes, there's always injury risk with Floyd. Not enough reason to let him continue to go at his current ADP...currently WR41 in MFL.

The other guys who emerged to tear it up to this degree late last year...Julio and Percy...are draft day darlings. You can get this guy practically free. I see way more potential here than in the Torrey Smith/Reggie Wayne part of the draft. Target around WR25 before the masses come around on the post-Brown injury landscape.

:draftchanger:

Two things with which I'll disagree:1) Meachem hasn't looked in sync...yet. Thinking that a new guy on the team will look in November the same way he looked in August is a bit shortsighted. I am not bullish on Meachem, BTW. But I think he'll be involved and may well be more involved and more effective as the season progresses.

2) The comparisons to Julio (a rookie WR learning curve) and Harvin (a rookie QB learning curve) are meaningless. Rivers to Floyd has been around for a while now. I think Rivers knows where Floyd will be and Floyd knows what Rivers will do with the ball. Concluding that Floyd's last six games are the result of some light suddenly coming on for either Rivers or Floyd doesn't sound right to me.

By all means, add him to your roster. I would. But the injury to Brown doesn't suddenly equate to "aggressively target" for me. How is this season any different in terms of opportunity than he's had in recent years? And at his age I don't think he's suddenly elevated his game.

 

[Bayhawks]

If I were hellbent on getting a Charger receiver it would be Gates. He is the one that makes the most sense to be a monster with Rivers this year.He's done it before, he's proven, the offense already runs through him, he's healthier than he has been, everyone else are either new (Meachem and Royal) or often injured (Floyd).

But the main question that applies to Floyd also applies to Gates. Can he stay healthy?Floyd has proven the ability to put up some numbers, when healthy, albeit with a smaller sample size than Gates.I would agree that Gates has the best opportunity for a big year in SD, but Floyd (assuming his ADP doesn't get too high) is a good late round pick, high reward, and low risk (he is going off the board in the late 8th/early 9th rounds as the 36th WR, after guys like Crabtree, Blackmon, D Moore, Britt, R Wayne). I would rather have Floyd (and his potential for big #s, if healthy) as my WR4 than guys with health questions like Moore & Britt (plus suspension?), or rookies/underachievers like Crabtree & Blackmon, or "safe" guys with low ceilings like Wayne.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Agree you gotta bump his #'s up (even those of us that had him safely ahead of Meachem)

 

[ShaHBucks]

He's good but I don't think he will ever hold up in the NFL. Body is just built stupid

 

[MAC_32]

Floyd would be a top 10 WR if he ever stayed healthy. Problem is that it's likely never going to happen.

I like Floyd and Royal more than Meachem but would want to have any of them as #4's, only, probably #5's. There's going to be some nice filler numbers here but I don't see any of these guys being quality every week starters.

 

[Zeff]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.

Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

I'm riding him as a starter till he gets hurt (got him in dynasty). I can easily see 4 100 yard games in the first 6 which is where I suspect he starts limping. Definitely wouldn't draft him as a starter in a redraft league though.

 

[Shutout]

If I were hellbent on getting a Charger receiver it would be Gates. He is the one that makes the most sense to be a monster with Rivers this year.He's done it before, he's proven, the offense already runs through him, he's healthier than he has been, everyone else are either new (Meachem and Royal) or often injured (Floyd).

But the main question that applies to Floyd also applies to Gates. Can he stay healthy?Floyd has proven the ability to put up some numbers, when healthy, albeit with a smaller sample size than Gates.I would agree that Gates has the best opportunity for a big year in SD, but Floyd (assuming his ADP doesn't get too high) is a good late round pick, high reward, and low risk (he is going off the board in the late 8th/early 9th rounds as the 36th WR, after guys like Crabtree, Blackmon, D Moore, Britt, R Wayne). I would rather have Floyd (and his potential for big #s, if healthy) as my WR4 than guys with health questions like Moore & Britt (plus suspension?), or rookies/underachievers like Crabtree & Blackmon, or "safe" guys with low ceilings like Wayne.

Yeah, for the price you are investing and looking for the high rate of return, I won't argue Floyd but if its as simple as trying to pick THE guy for this team that has the best chance to score most points for my FF team, its Gates easily, given the risk is comparable on the "might get injured side". Actually I lean more towards gates on that front also because it seems like Floyd gets hurt and all you hear (at 2pm when the lineup is already in) is "not going to be activated". Seems like with gates he is able to play through the nagging stuff more or they at least announce it sooner.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

I'm hoping that nobody notices his value until after I draft.When I put together my draft list for a given year, I start by looking at a variety of stats from the previous year. One of the most useful (IMO) is the Median PPG. I like median better than average ppg because it clearly displays what I could have expected from that player more often than not. It isnt easily skewed. I look at the entire previous year as well as the second half value. I only count the games played, so if a player misses time due to injury, the median value is not impacted.Long story short, it may surprise people to learn that Malcolm Floyd was - more often than not - the 4th best WR in the second half of last year. Its important to note that he only played 5 games out of the final 8 - so his 5 games are a smaller sample when compared to everybody else's 8. His second half median score was 15.55. His average was 13.9 over that same period. He had 4 dominant performances compared to just one stinker. That effort put him behind only: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson & Percy Harvin in the 2nd half of 2011.The previous year's median value obviously isnt the end all-be all of statistics, but its probably the best indicator of who was consistently good over a given period of time. Certainly, Floyd is a walking injury risk - but if he can stay healthy, he might really surprise people. Considering that he's coming off the board at the end of the 8th round, I'd have to say that he represents tremendous value & potential - especially when you consider that Rivers has ZERO chemistry with Meachem to this point and the rookie is out at least 8 weeks. He's going to get a bunch of targets. IMO, he will WAY outperform his draft slot if he can stay on the field. The price is right at his ADP.

 

[Shutout]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.

Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

I'm hoping that nobody notices his value until after I draft.When I put together my draft list for a given year, I start by looking at a variety of stats from the previous year. One of the most useful (IMO) is the Median PPG. I like median better than average ppg because it clearly displays what I could have expected from that player more often than not. It isnt easily skewed. I look at the entire previous year as well as the second half value. I only count the games played, so if a player misses time due to injury, the median value is not impacted.

Long story short, it may surprise people to learn that Malcolm Floyd was - more often than not - the 4th best WR in the second half of last year. Its important to note that he only played 5 games out of the final 8 - so his 5 games are a smaller sample when compared to everybody else's 8. His second half median score was 15.55. His average was 13.9 over that same period. He had 4 dominant performances compared to just one stinker. That effort put him behind only: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson & Percy Harvin in the 2nd half of 2011.

The previous year's median value obviously isnt the end all-be all of statistics, but its probably the best indicator of who was consistently good over a given period of time. Certainly, Floyd is a walking injury risk - but if he can stay healthy, he might really surprise people. Considering that he's coming off the board at the end of the 8th round, I'd have to say that he represents tremendous value & potential - especially when you consider that Rivers has ZERO chemistry with Meachem to this point and the rookie is out at least 8 weeks. He's going to get a bunch of targets. IMO, he will WAY outperform his draft slot if he can stay on the field. The price is right at his ADP.

Downside to that process is, say you have a guy that play's a limited number of games...we'll call him Darrius Heyward-Bey. And he played three games near the end of the year and averaged 21.5 in those three games. You might be led to believe that, per his median score, he was better than Calvin Johnson and might start thinking he was worth a lot more than he is. Do we really think he is better than Calvin Johnson or worth similar?That's an extreme example because obviously DHB played more games and i cherry-picked the stat lines but the point is don't get too tricky with this stuff because you might be the one who gets tricked.

I think its time to face it fellas; in today's age of information and misinformation, the days of being able to dupe an entire league of owners that is legitimate at all and "scoop" a guy several rounds later than they should be is much more blind luck than skill these days. These days, if you have 11 or 15 other guys skipping a guy multiple times and he comes to you, there's porbably a reason for that: Either YOU are the one making the mistake or you're playing in the wrong league (if you want a challenge).

 

[Itchy Amos]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.

Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

I'm hoping that nobody notices his value until after I draft.When I put together my draft list for a given year, I start by looking at a variety of stats from the previous year. One of the most useful (IMO) is the Median PPG. I like median better than average ppg because it clearly displays what I could have expected from that player more often than not. It isnt easily skewed. I look at the entire previous year as well as the second half value. I only count the games played, so if a player misses time due to injury, the median value is not impacted.

Long story short, it may surprise people to learn that Malcolm Floyd was - more often than not - the 4th best WR in the second half of last year. Its important to note that he only played 5 games out of the final 8 - so his 5 games are a smaller sample when compared to everybody else's 8. His second half median score was 15.55. His average was 13.9 over that same period. He had 4 dominant performances compared to just one stinker. That effort put him behind only: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson & Percy Harvin in the 2nd half of 2011.

The previous year's median value obviously isnt the end all-be all of statistics, but its probably the best indicator of who was consistently good over a given period of time. Certainly, Floyd is a walking injury risk - but if he can stay healthy, he might really surprise people. Considering that he's coming off the board at the end of the 8th round, I'd have to say that he represents tremendous value & potential - especially when you consider that Rivers has ZERO chemistry with Meachem to this point and the rookie is out at least 8 weeks. He's going to get a bunch of targets. IMO, he will WAY outperform his draft slot if he can stay on the field. The price is right at his ADP.

Downside to that process is, say you have a guy that play's a limited number of games...we'll call him Darrius Heyward-Bey. And he played three games near the end of the year and averaged 21.5 in those three games. You might be led to believe that, per his median score, he was better than Calvin Johnson and might start thinking he was worth a lot more than he is. Do we really think he is better than Calvin Johnson or worth similar?That's an extreme example because obviously DHB played more games and i cherry-picked the stat lines but the point is don't get too tricky with this stuff because you might be the one who gets tricked.

I think its time to face it fellas; in today's age of information and misinformation, the days of being able to dupe an entire league of owners that is legitimate at all and "scoop" a guy several rounds later than they should be is much more blind luck than skill these days. These days, if you have 11 or 15 other guys skipping a guy multiple times and he comes to you, there's porbably a reason for that: Either YOU are the one making the mistake or you're playing in the wrong league (if you want a challenge).

I think the only possible downside to this process is if you look at any one stat in a vacuum. He's going off the board as WR 36+/-. I'd say that nobody is deluding themselves into thinking that Floyd is a stud. He's not - but he just might outperform the other wide receivers that are going off the board in rounds 8 & 9.

 

[MAC_32]

I'm trusting most people DON'T see him as more than a WR4 spot filler. That's what makes it noteworthy any time you see something in a player that suggests to you he is worth far more than that. And it's why there's value in giving your reasoning to others here on the board. You might just change a mind or two. And if you're correct, you might just help a few people win a few leagues.Happy to see disagreement. Means the value I believe I see here might just last till draft day.

Yes you will, I have been snatching up Kendall Wright, STL Steve Smith, Randall Cobb, Austin Collie, and Santana Moss. Prefer all of them for different reasons to Floyd, before and after the Brown injury. Brown was the only San Diego WR I was interested in as it turns out.

 

[Tau837]

Floyd has been valuable for years when healthy.

In 2008, he got his first chance at meaningful snaps in week 6. From week 6 to week 15 (9 games), he was tied for WR #26 (FBG scoring). He suffered a collapsed lung in week 15 and didn't play the rest of the season. (And note that some players who ranked higher had their bye weeks prior to week 6 and thus had an extra game.)

In 2009, he got his first start in week 8, replacing Chambers in the lineup. From week 8 to week 17 (10 games), he was WR #42 (FBG scoring). No injuries. This was his weakest stretch once he got into the rotation, and it is due to him having 0 TDs over those 10 games... Tomlinson, Sproles, Jackson, and Gates combined for 36 TDs.

In 2010, he opened the season as the Chargers' #1 WR and played well until getting hurt (hamstring) midway through week 6. From there, he only got full snap count in weeks 13, 14, and 17. That said, in those 8 full games (1-5, 13, 14, 17), he averaged 12.2 fppg (FBG scoring).

In 2011, he hurt his groin in week 2 and was limited for a couple of weeks; then, just as he was getting past that injury, he hurt his hip, made it through the week 8 game, then missed 4 games. Once he came back healthy, he averaged 13.9 fppg in his last 5 games (FBG scoring).

Clearly, there is potential there, particularly if he is not on the injury report going into a given game week. One thing that has traditionally held him back from elite status is lack of TDs. Despite Floyd's size and athleticism, he hasn't traditionally been targeted a lot in the red zone; last year he had just 8 red zone targets and 1 red zone TD. If Gates and Mathews are healthy, they are the top two options in the red zone, and, while I know people like to knock him, Meachem was a good red zone WR in New Orleans.

In 2009, he had 0 TDs in 10 games as a starter, in large part due to being behind Tomlinson, Sproles, Gates, and Jackson in the pecking order. By my count, in 2010-11, Floyd played 14 healthy games, in which he scored 9 TDs. During those games, Tomlinson and Sproles were gone, replaced by Tolbert and Mathews, who weren't quite as effective in the red zone, and Jackson and Gates missed a number of those games or played hurt. How does that compare to this year? Gates appears healthy. But Tolbert is gone and Mathews is set to miss some number of games to open the season. I think Meachem will be better than most, but he still won't likely be as good as Jackson. Now Vincent Brown, who would have notionally been behind Floyd anyway, is out for a while. The situation seems more like 2010-11 than 2009, suggesting there is good TD potential for Floyd.

I agree with those saying that he offers solid value and good upside at his ADP. But if it creeps much higher, I think the value quickly fades.