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O'Sullivan Analysis (1 Viewer)

U

UFO

Footballguy
I loved getting this guy late. While others were taking Garrard (do they have any healthy receivers?), Campbell (looked awfule last night), etc 6 rounds earlier I grabbed this guy who I feel has a ton more upside.

Here is why I guarantee o'suulivan will out produce most of the mid tier QBs

1) He knows the system, the other QBs are having a really hard time learning the complex system. O'Sullivan is an expert on it from his time in Detroit. He will be on a long leash, I wouldn't expect him to lose the job unless he completely lays an egg. The other QBs simply are not ready to play in this system.

2) Martz has turned EVERY QB he has been involved with into fantasy studs...of course there is the grocery bagger and Bulger in St. Louis, but look back when he was the QB coach under turner in Washington...Ferotte had a career year and a virtually unknown named Trent Green came out of nowheres to produce solid #s the next year...23 TDs on a Turner led offense. Then most recently Kitna, a career journeyman/back up became a top 5 QB

3) Schedule...this is not the AFC north we are talking about here...6 games either indoors or in balmy conditions against some of the leagues worst defenses.

4) Most likely playing from behind virtually every week.

5) The Gore factor. Gore has Faulk like skills that will inable him to take a few short passes from O'Sullivan to the house further padding his stats.

I am not advocating that this guy is going to compete with Brady for the passing crown but I think he is a pretty good bet to finish top 10 and a reasonable chance he puts up Kitna type #s from two years ago.

Thoughts/Comments welcome.

 
I wouldn't be surprised if O'Sullivan put up big numbers, but I'm not betting on it. If i had more roster space, I would pick him up now. I'm not going to drop my current QB2 (Schaub) for him. I will be following him closely in the first few weeks though because he is still on our waiver wire.

 
Keepers said:
Banger said:
O'Sullivan's situation <> Warner's...the better comparison is Kitna.
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Gore will help O'Sullivan and Davis should improve but SF receivers << Det receivers <<< STL receivers when Martz was there.
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I like Gore but Martz hasn't run the ball in years...he may pass the ball more frequently to him or I guess it's possible the Martz may change his stripes but I doubt it... I don't doubt that O'Sullivan will exceed his ADP but I do doubt that he'll be a top 10-14 QB.
 
This is the first year Ive carried a 3rd QB (20 man roster limits). I was the last to take a QB, and adding JT as a 3rd costs virtually nothing, and the upside is certainly there. No foresight at the time, but the more I read and see I do think his upside can exceed or at least match the numbers of the guys you mentioned, all of whom came at a 5 or 6 round premium to JT's price.

And if it doesnt work he's an easy drop and you move on.

 
Thinking of bidding on JT from the waiver wire in one league. I drafted both Cutler & Schaub in this league, stupidly not realizing until after the draft that they both have the same week 8 BYE.. Gonna hold off for a couple weeks to feel more comfortable that he'll still be the starter mid-season.

 
Wow, I hope so. In my 2 QB league, I am trying to sell him to team with only 2 QBs.

And first game against Ariz better be shoot out. So that I can sell him high. :goodposting:

 
UFO said:
2) Martz has turned EVERY QB he has been involved with into fantasy studs...of course there is the grocery bagger and Bulger in St. Louis, but look back when he was the QB coach under turner in Washington...Ferotte had a career year and a virtually unknown named Trent Green came out of nowheres to produce solid #s the next year...23 TDs on a Turner led offense. Then most recently Kitna, a career journeyman/back up became a top 5 QBI am not advocating that this guy is going to compete with Brady for the passing crown but I think he is a pretty good bet to finish top 10 and a reasonable chance he puts up Kitna type #s from two years ago.
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Think your memory on Kitna from 2 years ago is a little off. In leagues that penalize interceptions, it's doubtful that Kitna was top 5 -- top 12 perhaps. Last year, he was mediocre at best and not really startable. And that was with receivers that are much more talented than the ones that O'Sullivan will be working with.On the other hand, I do agree that he does have more upside than most of the waiver wire type QBs. But there's a lot of risk, and I wouldn't hold my breath on him finishing in the top 12.
 
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass.

I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.

To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.

 
I'm a believer. JT is my QB2 in both my money leagues this season. I won't need him to be a superstar, just a worthy starter every so often during the season. If he's more effective than that, then great.

 
meeka said:
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass. I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Kitna never gets his "due"...the guy is an above average QB playing on a team with a bad O-Line. Don't confuse O'Sullivan with the likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger. SF will be drafting their next "QB of the future" in 2009.
 
In a two qb league, getting a legit chance for a top 10 qb as the second to last qb taken - or thereabouts - is not something to be ignored. He may absolutely suck, but his upside is greater than all but a small handful of options.

 
UFO said:
I loved getting this guy late. While others were taking Garrard (do they have any healthy receivers?), Campbell (looked awfule last night), etc 6 rounds earlier I grabbed this guy who I feel has a ton more upside.Here is why I guarantee o'suulivan will out produce most of the mid tier QBs1) He knows the system, the other QBs are having a really hard time learning the complex system. O'Sullivan is an expert on it from his time in Detroit. He will be on a long leash, I wouldn't expect him to lose the job unless he completely lays an egg. The other QBs simply are not ready to play in this system. 2) Martz has turned EVERY QB he has been involved with into fantasy studs...of course there is the grocery bagger and Bulger in St. Louis, but look back when he was the QB coach under turner in Washington...Ferotte had a career year and a virtually unknown named Trent Green came out of nowheres to produce solid #s the next year...23 TDs on a Turner led offense. Then most recently Kitna, a career journeyman/back up became a top 5 QB3) Schedule...this is not the AFC north we are talking about here...6 games either indoors or in balmy conditions against some of the leagues worst defenses. 4) Most likely playing from behind virtually every week.5) The Gore factor. Gore has Faulk like skills that will inable him to take a few short passes from O'Sullivan to the house further padding his stats. I am not advocating that this guy is going to compete with Brady for the passing crown but I think he is a pretty good bet to finish top 10 and a reasonable chance he puts up Kitna type #s from two years ago. Thoughts/Comments welcome.
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You seem to have it all figured out ... So tell us who is going to be the lucky recipient of all those yards and TD passes?
 
Scooby1974 said:
meeka said:
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass. I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Kitna never gets his "due"...the guy is an above average QB playing on a team with a bad O-Line. Don't confuse O'Sullivan with the likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger. SF will be drafting their next "QB of the future" in 2009.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: If Kitna throws for over 3000 yards this season, he'll pass Namath, Stabler and Bradshaw on the all time passing list. If he throws for over 3000 yards for two more years, he has a good chance of ending up in one of the top 20 all time passers. The guy threw for over 3,000 yards three years in a row for the Bengals, including a year that he threw for nearly 3600 yards and 26 TDs.Also, with the exception of Green who just had Kennison and Gonzalez, those other Martz QBs had some great WRs to work with. Not sure that I see any of those on the Niners unless Josh Morgan turns into a stud.
 
petben said:
Tanner9919 said:
sell high after week one's shootout with Az.
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1st 4 games for SF are against some of last years worst pass Defenses. Sell high after game 4 when people are conviced he's legit.
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Just because he's got a decent 1st 4 games doesn't mean he'll do anything, I'd actually be for starting the Cards D against San Fran with the expectation that 3 sacks and 2-3 turnovers are basically locks.
 
travdogg said:
petben said:
Tanner9919 said:
sell high after week one's shootout with Az.
Click to expand...
1st 4 games for SF are against some of last years worst pass Defenses. Sell high after game 4 when people are conviced he's legit.
Click to expand...
Just because he's got a decent 1st 4 games doesn't mean he'll do anything, I'd actually be for starting the Cards D against San Fran with the expectation that 3 sacks and 2-3 turnovers are basically locks.
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I interested in him 1. coach has history of passing 2. Bruce +Johnson+Davis+ highly regard rookie Morgan not as bad as a wr group, +Gore's been known to catch a few passes 3. Pre-season stat's, I look at but don't put alot of stock in preseason stat's but O sullivan went 33/20 for 351 10.6 yards attempt with 2 td's, he's got my attention.Every year some QB comes out the blue to have a nice year like Anderson last year, if you wait you miss the train, I not saying drop a Favre, etc for him, but may a Jake D, of Car which may run more then pass, could work out.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Scooby1974 said:
meeka said:
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass. I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Kitna never gets his "due"...the guy is an above average QB playing on a team with a bad O-Line. Don't confuse O'Sullivan with the likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger. SF will be drafting their next "QB of the future" in 2009.
Click to expand...
:lmao: If Kitna throws for over 3000 yards this season, he'll pass Namath, Stabler and Bradshaw on the all time passing list. If he throws for over 3000 yards for two more years, he has a good chance of ending up in one of the top 20 all time passers. The guy threw for over 3,000 yards three years in a row for the Bengals, including a year that he threw for nearly 3600 yards and 26 TDs.Also, with the exception of Green who just had Kennison and Gonzalez, those other Martz QBs had some great WRs to work with. Not sure that I see any of those on the Niners unless Josh Morgan turns into a stud.
Click to expand...
I am a Lions fan and I like Kitna. I just to not see the love for JT. He showed me nothing when he came in to play last year. Maybe he will respond better to having a starting job, but he looked terribly lost for the Lions last year. The only thing that I can see that will make JT a useful qb is if he can get more time behind a better line. I just do not see good thing from JT this year. JMO
 
Does anyone think that O'Sullivan makes it through the whole season without getting injured? The offensive line for San Fran is pretty bad and Martz's system gets the QB knocked around quite a bit already. I find it difficult to believe that he's not going to miss a few games due to injury playing behind that line in that system.

 
ChadforPresident said:
I am starting him over Cutler this week (obviously wouldn't be if JTO didn't have a good matchup and Marshall was playing).
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Sorry but thats crazy. Benching Delhommes, and Cutlers is just reading too much into Martz hype. Someone also commented that the SF wrs were pretty good. IMHO not many teams have worse. Ike Bruce? BJohnson? ABatte? JMorgan? I own JT and I do think Martz' QBs and WRs can be good fantasy plays but no way in heck am i benching guys for him because of matchups.
 
Scooby1974 said:
meeka said:
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass.

I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.

To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Kitna never gets his "due"...the guy is an above average QB playing on a team with a bad O-Line. Don't confuse O'Sullivan with the likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger. SF will be drafting their next "QB of the future" in 2009.
Click to expand...
Do you realize what the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" were before they becamse what they did?Kitna -- Started his career in Europe and was undrafted in the NFL until signed as an undrafted free agent by Seattle in 1997.

Warner -- Was undrafted in 1994 and released by the GB Packers before the season began. Played in the Arena league until finally signed in 1998 by St. Louis and sent to Europe. Did not start until 1999 when he took the NFL by storm as we all know due to an injury to Trent Green.

Bulger -- Was a 6th round draft pick in 2000. Spent a couple weeks on practice squads. Signed in Jan, 2001 and didn't see action until 2002 when both Warner AND Jamie Martin went down.

So, before their current accomplishments, the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" were complete garbage with little hope to have success. What do they all have in common? A guy named Martz trusted them to be successful QB's and run his offense. JTO looks eerily similar. There are obviously no guarantees that he will follow in their footsteps, but let's not talk about the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" as if they came from some distinguished pedigree that sets them apart from JTO. Low/undrafted guys who were nothing more than backups early in their careers.

 
One major difference is that Kitna, Bulger & Warner all had at least one good receiver. O'Sullivan does not.

 
the bottom line with JTO is he is worth the gamble at his ADP. i'd much rather roll the dice with him than draft pennington, jackson, or campbell. he's boom or bust. he's either gonna be a top-20 guy or be out after a few games.

 
It seems everyone seems to forget about Gore in this mix. Who knows what Martz will do with Gore in the backfield? Do we dare say he may approach MFaulk-like fantasy numbers? What about V.Davis? JTO has other targets other than the WRs.

Bottom line...JTO is a big unknown (like much of the niners this year). Yeah, his career it nothing to brag about. But, as a local guy watching the preseason (for what it's worth), he did show he has tremendous upside. His experience with the system shows he can make quick reads, was decisive, and his throws were sharp and strong. OL pass protect looked decent. Value as a last round pickup or waiver pickup...too good to pass up IMO.

 
Banger said:
O'Sullivan's situation <> Warner's...the better comparison is Kitna.
Click to expand...
:bag: unless/until JT has Bruce(1998) , Holt, Faulk et al on his roster, he's going to be another Jon Kitna, i.e., sacked about 1500 times per year, tossing 1:1 td's to ints..JT is going to get killed just like every other Martz QB has..
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Alex Smith is unofficially finished as a 49er (link) so JT won't have that to worry about. Given the fact that Martz has been unimpressed with Hill, JTO looks like he'll have some job security after all.

 
gianmarco said:
Scooby1974 said:
meeka said:
He knew the system last year when he came into a game against the Vikings. If I recall correctly they decided to put a dazed and confused Kitna back into the game to win because O'Sullivan could not move the ball. That was with 2 good recievers against a Vikings team that had trouble stopping the pass.

I think in SF with much less talent at WR, but better protection, he will have a tough time putting up Kitna numbers. He is just not as good as Kitna. That in itself says enough to me to leave him on the wire.

To the OP. I would much rather take Garrard 6 rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Kitna never gets his "due"...the guy is an above average QB playing on a team with a bad O-Line. Don't confuse O'Sullivan with the likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger. SF will be drafting their next "QB of the future" in 2009.
Click to expand...
Do you realize what the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" were before they becamse what they did?Kitna -- Started his career in Europe and was undrafted in the NFL until signed as an undrafted free agent by Seattle in 1997.

Warner -- Was undrafted in 1994 and released by the GB Packers before the season began. Played in the Arena league until finally signed in 1998 by St. Louis and sent to Europe. Did not start until 1999 when he took the NFL by storm as we all know due to an injury to Trent Green.

Bulger -- Was a 6th round draft pick in 2000. Spent a couple weeks on practice squads. Signed in Jan, 2001 and didn't see action until 2002 when both Warner AND Jamie Martin went down.

So, before their current accomplishments, the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" were complete garbage with little hope to have success. What do they all have in common? A guy named Martz trusted them to be successful QB's and run his offense. JTO looks eerily similar. There are obviously no guarantees that he will follow in their footsteps, but let's not talk about the "likes of Kitna/Warner/Bulger" as if they came from some distinguished pedigree that sets them apart from JTO. Low/undrafted guys who were nothing more than backups early in their careers.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes:
 
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