How's it going fellas,
It's almost time to kick some ### in Fantasy Football so I'm here to give you some last second advice. I ran a few drafts and have formulated a few conclusions that I think will help you run a successful team. Here is my comprehensive guide for the 2014 - 2015 NFL Season.
Quarterbacks-
Unless one of the big three Quarterbacks falls to you in the late 3rd / early 4th, wait as long as you can before drafting a Quarterback. There are plenty of Quarterbacks who can sling it. The worst case scenario for your team is Phillip Rivers. No one knows why he falls but he'll be there late for you to pickup in case you miss out on Andrew Luck by a pick or two or whoever you are bullish about.
I personally think that Colin Kaepernick is in for a big year. He's insanely athletic and I think he opens it up in the Passing Game a little more this season. I think he'd be great on the field with Hyde, who I imagine can learn to bully around linebackers in pass protection. Tony Romo is another guy I like to draft if he falls to me. Consistent as hell.
There's really not a bad pick to be made. I wouldn't recommend a guy like Jay Cutler simply because he's a risk. Injury concerns and he has never produced at a high level before. I don't think there's much upside to gain given the success of other Quarterbacks around him. Matt Ryan has much more potential than Jay Cutler.
But keep it simple, wait it out round after round and strike when the iron is hot. Keep an eye on which players already have drafted backups and don't put yourself in a position where you watch other players drafting backups before you get your starter. I don't know why people like to horde QBs but it happens.
WHO I'M TARGETTING:
DREW BREES
AARON RODGERS
TONY ROMO
CAM NEWTON
COLIN KAEPERNICK
ROBERT GRIFFIN III
TOM BRADY
I would consider it a failure not drafting one of these 3 guys.
Running Back-
I love Running Back this year, especially if you've got a Top 3 pick. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, and LeSean McCoy. Boom, can't miss. I honestly have Adrian Peterson ranked #1 based on the fact that he is the best Running Back in the league. He's a Hall of Famer and he's guaranteed to bang out a few more big seasons. If he had a Passing Game he scores 12+ Touchdowns guaranteed the next 2 - 3 seasons. He's a freak that is a joy to watch on Sunday when he's on your team.
I think about drafting Eddie Lacey and remember taking him in the 4th / 5th last year and realize that I can grab Running Back value later. Not that I am down on Eddie Lacey as a player but I win Fantasy by getting value not stretching to fill a position. Doug Martin and Arian Foster are players that can score comparably to Eddie Lacey and are being drafted later than him. Marshawn Lynch is a guy I would be thrilled to land in the late 1st as well. He's consistent on a team with a phenomenal defense. I mean, I probably won't draft Doug Martin personally but I don't think he's a bad pick. Mainly because of one my favorite value picks.
Chris Johnson. Nobody wants him and I don't know why. Fine guys, I guess I'll take the lead back on a team that is going to run a ton. If Chris Johnson is who he says he is, Rex Ryan will ensure that he gets the ball repetitively. If he outproduces Ivory, he will see the field. He's been ridiculously consistent the past 3 years.
He's going to bust a few 40+ yarders, catch a few passes, and you'll bust a huge smile when he helps you trounce your opponent. He's a true wild card but when he's hot, he scores points in gobs. He's a high upside guy that you want on your team, especially late.
Matt Forte is a guy that you want on your team but some jagoff Bears fan is going to take him just slightly higher than his actual value is.
Adrian Peterson
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Arian Foster
Demarco Murray
Chris Johnson
These are the building blocks in which I've been building my teams around. It's 100% possible to acquire at least 'two' of these players. I also like Giovanni Bernard and Andre Ellington but they are being drafted quite high. Of the Rookies, I'm willing to roll the dice on Bishop Sankey, Andre Williams, and Jeremy Hill. If I can add one of those three guys to the stable of guys I've got listed above I would consider that a huge success.
Don't get caught with your pants down, you need at least 1 - 2 guys who will be seeing the bulk of RB touches on their team. But there's no shame in loading up on Jimmy Graham, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, and then grabbing Chris Johnson in the 4th. In fact, you might be insane not to do that. Frank Gore is a risk because of Hyde. They do run a lot but I'm skeptical.
Don't draft Steven Jackson.
Do draft Ray Rice (suspension value drop).
Avoid Miami RB outright.
If Trent Richarson falls, you've got to take him but handcuff him with Ahmad Bradshaw. Luck will make that a high volume Offense, a Running Back will thrive in Indy. You want whoever that is. I've draft Bradshaw in a few leagues on principle of the Richardson situation. He looked great when given carries last year, he would be insane with Andre Luck. Catches passes, huge sleeper, imo.
Darren McFadden late is another good value, his running talent is still pretty insane. No clue how that timeshare breaks down by Week 16.
Wide Receiver-
Wide Receiver are a blast to draft because there's so much depth. Right out the gate these are must-have players on your team. If you don't draft one of these guys, you have failed:
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Demaryius Thomas
Brandon Marshall
AJ Green
Those guys are premier players who will lead the lead in targets and have the size and athleticism to break the game wide open. Honorable mention goes to Antonio Bryant who is very close to breaking into this tear, he's like the Matt Forte of Wide Receivers. The idea is to draft Wide Receivers who play with the best Quarterbacks:
Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson
Davante Adams
Julio Jones
Roddy White
Harry Douglas
Demaryius Thomas
Wes Welker
Emmanuel Sanders
Marques Colston
Brandin Cooks
Kenny Stills
Aaron Dobson
Kembrell Thompkins
Julian Edelman
These guys are on the field with Quarterbacks who could very well throw them 2 - 3 Touchdowns in one game. You don't complain about starting a guy who's on the field with Peyton Manning, if you do your job he gets you the ball. If you can snag the following guys as your WR2 I think it's a success:
Andre Johnson
Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson
Wes Welker
Percy Harvin
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is too unproven to be a WR2. I would take him as my WR3 in a heartbeat though. Torrey Smith is another guy like that. I'll explain it this way:
Torrey Smith
Cordarrelle Patterson
Victor Cruz
TY Hilton
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
All have similar upside. You can get one of these guys as your WR3, I am sure of it. After that you've got a lot of depth at players you're looking at drafting as your WR4 and beyond:
Justin Hunter (Kendal Wright in PPR)
Kelvin Benjamin
Tavon Austin
Aaron Dobson
Emmanuel Sanders
James Jones
Rueben Randle
Kenny Stills
Eric Decker
Doug Baldwin
Jordan Mathews
Jeremy Maclin
Marqise Lee
Reggie Wayne
Martavis Bryant
Miles Austin
Everyone on that above list are still extremely talented and if you pick 2 - 3 good ones, you'll have great depth to cover injuries and bye-weeks.
Tight End-
At Tight End, it's Jimmy Graham or nothing. If I miss out on RBs that I like in the first, I rush to grab Jimmy Graham. He'll score you Top 10 WR Numbers at the TE position where everyone else is getting a fraction of the points per week that you are. If you miss out on him, grab some studs and target these guys in the later rounds:
Jordan Reed
Ladarius Green
Kyle Rudolph
Zack Ertz
Martellus Bennett
Grab two of these guys if you can and you should be set. Cameron, Davis, and Thomas are being drafted way too early for my liking. Again, I like to be the guy that drafts Julius Thomas in the 10th last year; not the guy who drafts him in the 3rd / 4th this year. I'll find my sleeper.
My one exception is Jason Witten. He's a guy I might reach for simply because he's the man, he'll produce for years the way he plays. In PPR he's absolute money. If I have a good draft going and he falls, I won't be able to help myself.
Defense-
People don't put much stock into Defense but I think it's remotely important, you can definitely win a week by starting the right defense. Don't draft a defense before you have a starter in each position, including flex:
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinatti Bengals
Houston Texans
San Francisco
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
I honestly don't think it matters if you draft a defense though. You can get by simply by starting Defenses who play against crappy Quarterbacks / Offenses, don't overthink. As a general rule of thumb, I have been trying to acquire either Seattle, Cincinatti, or Houston @ Defense.
Kicker-
Eh. Pick your favorite guy. Nick Novak has been my guy this year.
-
Draft with confidence, there is a ton of value at WR this year so get your stud and then acquire a few Running Backs. Have fun, take players you like watching on Sunday and a few from your favorite team always adds a nice flavor. Don't play Mr. Nice Guy, take all prisoners and hose your opponents. Building a winning team is a like a puzzle, which players are going to fall to your particular draft position?
Remember, the rankings NEVER end up remotely accurate so swing for the fences. As long as your player is at least starting and seeing snaps, he has a chance to be Fantasy relevant.
It's almost time to kick some ### in Fantasy Football so I'm here to give you some last second advice. I ran a few drafts and have formulated a few conclusions that I think will help you run a successful team. Here is my comprehensive guide for the 2014 - 2015 NFL Season.
Quarterbacks-
Unless one of the big three Quarterbacks falls to you in the late 3rd / early 4th, wait as long as you can before drafting a Quarterback. There are plenty of Quarterbacks who can sling it. The worst case scenario for your team is Phillip Rivers. No one knows why he falls but he'll be there late for you to pickup in case you miss out on Andrew Luck by a pick or two or whoever you are bullish about.
I personally think that Colin Kaepernick is in for a big year. He's insanely athletic and I think he opens it up in the Passing Game a little more this season. I think he'd be great on the field with Hyde, who I imagine can learn to bully around linebackers in pass protection. Tony Romo is another guy I like to draft if he falls to me. Consistent as hell.
There's really not a bad pick to be made. I wouldn't recommend a guy like Jay Cutler simply because he's a risk. Injury concerns and he has never produced at a high level before. I don't think there's much upside to gain given the success of other Quarterbacks around him. Matt Ryan has much more potential than Jay Cutler.
But keep it simple, wait it out round after round and strike when the iron is hot. Keep an eye on which players already have drafted backups and don't put yourself in a position where you watch other players drafting backups before you get your starter. I don't know why people like to horde QBs but it happens.
WHO I'M TARGETTING:
DREW BREES
AARON RODGERS
TONY ROMO
CAM NEWTON
COLIN KAEPERNICK
ROBERT GRIFFIN III
TOM BRADY
I would consider it a failure not drafting one of these 3 guys.
Running Back-
I love Running Back this year, especially if you've got a Top 3 pick. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, and LeSean McCoy. Boom, can't miss. I honestly have Adrian Peterson ranked #1 based on the fact that he is the best Running Back in the league. He's a Hall of Famer and he's guaranteed to bang out a few more big seasons. If he had a Passing Game he scores 12+ Touchdowns guaranteed the next 2 - 3 seasons. He's a freak that is a joy to watch on Sunday when he's on your team.
I think about drafting Eddie Lacey and remember taking him in the 4th / 5th last year and realize that I can grab Running Back value later. Not that I am down on Eddie Lacey as a player but I win Fantasy by getting value not stretching to fill a position. Doug Martin and Arian Foster are players that can score comparably to Eddie Lacey and are being drafted later than him. Marshawn Lynch is a guy I would be thrilled to land in the late 1st as well. He's consistent on a team with a phenomenal defense. I mean, I probably won't draft Doug Martin personally but I don't think he's a bad pick. Mainly because of one my favorite value picks.
Chris Johnson. Nobody wants him and I don't know why. Fine guys, I guess I'll take the lead back on a team that is going to run a ton. If Chris Johnson is who he says he is, Rex Ryan will ensure that he gets the ball repetitively. If he outproduces Ivory, he will see the field. He's been ridiculously consistent the past 3 years.
He's going to bust a few 40+ yarders, catch a few passes, and you'll bust a huge smile when he helps you trounce your opponent. He's a true wild card but when he's hot, he scores points in gobs. He's a high upside guy that you want on your team, especially late.
Matt Forte is a guy that you want on your team but some jagoff Bears fan is going to take him just slightly higher than his actual value is.
Adrian Peterson
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Arian Foster
Demarco Murray
Chris Johnson
These are the building blocks in which I've been building my teams around. It's 100% possible to acquire at least 'two' of these players. I also like Giovanni Bernard and Andre Ellington but they are being drafted quite high. Of the Rookies, I'm willing to roll the dice on Bishop Sankey, Andre Williams, and Jeremy Hill. If I can add one of those three guys to the stable of guys I've got listed above I would consider that a huge success.
Don't get caught with your pants down, you need at least 1 - 2 guys who will be seeing the bulk of RB touches on their team. But there's no shame in loading up on Jimmy Graham, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, and then grabbing Chris Johnson in the 4th. In fact, you might be insane not to do that. Frank Gore is a risk because of Hyde. They do run a lot but I'm skeptical.
Don't draft Steven Jackson.
Do draft Ray Rice (suspension value drop).
Avoid Miami RB outright.
If Trent Richarson falls, you've got to take him but handcuff him with Ahmad Bradshaw. Luck will make that a high volume Offense, a Running Back will thrive in Indy. You want whoever that is. I've draft Bradshaw in a few leagues on principle of the Richardson situation. He looked great when given carries last year, he would be insane with Andre Luck. Catches passes, huge sleeper, imo.
Darren McFadden late is another good value, his running talent is still pretty insane. No clue how that timeshare breaks down by Week 16.
Wide Receiver-
Wide Receiver are a blast to draft because there's so much depth. Right out the gate these are must-have players on your team. If you don't draft one of these guys, you have failed:
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Demaryius Thomas
Brandon Marshall
AJ Green
Those guys are premier players who will lead the lead in targets and have the size and athleticism to break the game wide open. Honorable mention goes to Antonio Bryant who is very close to breaking into this tear, he's like the Matt Forte of Wide Receivers. The idea is to draft Wide Receivers who play with the best Quarterbacks:
Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson
Davante Adams
Julio Jones
Roddy White
Harry Douglas
Demaryius Thomas
Wes Welker
Emmanuel Sanders
Marques Colston
Brandin Cooks
Kenny Stills
Aaron Dobson
Kembrell Thompkins
Julian Edelman
These guys are on the field with Quarterbacks who could very well throw them 2 - 3 Touchdowns in one game. You don't complain about starting a guy who's on the field with Peyton Manning, if you do your job he gets you the ball. If you can snag the following guys as your WR2 I think it's a success:
Andre Johnson
Randall Cobb
Jordy Nelson
Wes Welker
Percy Harvin
I think Cordarrelle Patterson is too unproven to be a WR2. I would take him as my WR3 in a heartbeat though. Torrey Smith is another guy like that. I'll explain it this way:
Torrey Smith
Cordarrelle Patterson
Victor Cruz
TY Hilton
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
All have similar upside. You can get one of these guys as your WR3, I am sure of it. After that you've got a lot of depth at players you're looking at drafting as your WR4 and beyond:
Justin Hunter (Kendal Wright in PPR)
Kelvin Benjamin
Tavon Austin
Aaron Dobson
Emmanuel Sanders
James Jones
Rueben Randle
Kenny Stills
Eric Decker
Doug Baldwin
Jordan Mathews
Jeremy Maclin
Marqise Lee
Reggie Wayne
Martavis Bryant
Miles Austin
Everyone on that above list are still extremely talented and if you pick 2 - 3 good ones, you'll have great depth to cover injuries and bye-weeks.
Tight End-
At Tight End, it's Jimmy Graham or nothing. If I miss out on RBs that I like in the first, I rush to grab Jimmy Graham. He'll score you Top 10 WR Numbers at the TE position where everyone else is getting a fraction of the points per week that you are. If you miss out on him, grab some studs and target these guys in the later rounds:
Jordan Reed
Ladarius Green
Kyle Rudolph
Zack Ertz
Martellus Bennett
Grab two of these guys if you can and you should be set. Cameron, Davis, and Thomas are being drafted way too early for my liking. Again, I like to be the guy that drafts Julius Thomas in the 10th last year; not the guy who drafts him in the 3rd / 4th this year. I'll find my sleeper.
My one exception is Jason Witten. He's a guy I might reach for simply because he's the man, he'll produce for years the way he plays. In PPR he's absolute money. If I have a good draft going and he falls, I won't be able to help myself.
Defense-
People don't put much stock into Defense but I think it's remotely important, you can definitely win a week by starting the right defense. Don't draft a defense before you have a starter in each position, including flex:
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinatti Bengals
Houston Texans
San Francisco
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
I honestly don't think it matters if you draft a defense though. You can get by simply by starting Defenses who play against crappy Quarterbacks / Offenses, don't overthink. As a general rule of thumb, I have been trying to acquire either Seattle, Cincinatti, or Houston @ Defense.
Kicker-
Eh. Pick your favorite guy. Nick Novak has been my guy this year.
-
Draft with confidence, there is a ton of value at WR this year so get your stud and then acquire a few Running Backs. Have fun, take players you like watching on Sunday and a few from your favorite team always adds a nice flavor. Don't play Mr. Nice Guy, take all prisoners and hose your opponents. Building a winning team is a like a puzzle, which players are going to fall to your particular draft position?
Remember, the rankings NEVER end up remotely accurate so swing for the fences. As long as your player is at least starting and seeing snaps, he has a chance to be Fantasy relevant.
