shader
Footballguy
The "dress rehearsal" game is sometimes over-rated to the point where people make significant assumptions based off of one game. Let's look back at the weekend and see some examples where over-reaction on a player could potentially damage your team.
STL vs NE -- Sam Bradford. Did he look good? Yes. But don't think for a second that he isn't going to have many, many struggles this year. Now is not the time to get him. I had him as a target in an upcoming dynasty draft, but have taken him off the radar. Why? Because his value is now too high, and the owner that gets him will most assuredly trade him during the season. Why? Because he has no offensive weapons. Once real NFL defenses get ahold of him, he's going to have a tough year, considering the guys he's throwing the ball to. I still love this kid for the future, but the hype is out of control now.
Ind vs GB -- Jermichael Finley. I love this kid. But I've seen alot of hype come his way in the past few days. Guys now expect him to shatter TE records, be the number 1 TE by a mile...Back to reality a bit. Finley has undeniable talent, and it's undeniable that Rodgers looks his way. But the Packers have a ton of weapons, and so reaching on Finley, when there are 5-7 other TE's that will probably have averages with 1 ppg of Finley is a mistake. If you're in a dynasty, ppr league and you feel that you have to have this guy for the next ten years, I can't argue with that, but if you're predicting a record-breaking 2010 for Finley, I think you need to take a step back and re-analyze.
ATL vs Mia -- MIAMI OFFENSE!!!! PANIC, PANIC, PANIC -- Before you quickly ship off Marshall, Henne and Brown, remember why you have them in the first place. Yes, there are probably areas of concern for Miami, and this team is definetely not going to be an ultra-high scoring offense. But Henne is still a solid backup QB in my estimation, and Marshall is not going to continue to drop passes at this rate. The running game could potentially be an area of concern, but don't let 8 carries in a pre-season game affect your opinion of Ronnie Brown. It's just 8 carries.
NYJ vs WAS -- LT IS BACK!!! Well...I wouldn't be so sure. He has looked much better than last year, and there is no question that the Jets line is much better than the OL of San Diego. But remember it is a very long season. Also, I still saw a number of runs where I felt the LT of old would have taken it to the house. He still seems to go down far too easy. LT still has speed, and he'll still have big gains due to the immense holes the Jets' line opens up. His long run showed that he still has the speed, and he should be a nice compliment to Greene. But Greene is the guy to own in NY. Sanchez has not had a particularly strong camp, the Jets will rely on the running game, and the large number of runs that this team will call benefits the younger RB. LT is still a huge question mark to stay healthy for long periods of time, as it's rare that RB's get better at Tomlinson's age. Once the wear and tear of the season hits, expect the nagging injuries to start piling up for LT.
NO vs SD -- I can't really find anything in this matchup. Two very good offenses, and both looked pretty solid. The part of the box score that really stood out was Bush's 7 receptions for 70 yards. I think Bush's resurgence last year has firmly cemented him in a much more vital part of the Saints' gameplan, and if you're in a PPR league, you need to take notice, as this is not an aberration.
Phi vs KC -- I wouldn't panic on Kolb, I would panic on Cassell. Cassell just still doesn't look confident, and still seems to struggle with many of the same issues that plagued him last year. He still should see his numbers improve due to the weapons around him, but he's not going to turn into an excellent QB, as he's just not that good. With Kolb, first understand that if you are in a league that heavily penalizes turnovers, Kolb is going to hurt you. But he's still going to put up good numbers this year, assuming Desean Jackson stays healthy. Jackson's absence was very noticeable, and his return will keep Kolb as a solid number 2 QB. Anyone that has Kolb as their number 1 was overrating him to begin with.
Cle vs Det -- Was that Jake Delhomme? Shades of the super bowl vs Brady in this pre-season matchup. However, although Detroit's new DT, Suh, looks like a HOF'er already, I don't think Detroit's pre-season defense compares to the defenses Delhomme will see in the AFC North. Expect interceptions, and plenty of them when the regular season starts for Delhomme. Don't even think about rostering Delhomme as a number 2 QB. Leave him off of your roster.
Cincy vs Buf -- Carson Palmer is going to have a very good year. Is his arm going to hold up? I don't know. But the addition of Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham are going to make this offense look completely different this year. His numbers against Buf were legit. It still remains to be seen if his arm is going to have the strength to throw the deep ball with effectiveness anymore. But even so, Palmer is a guy who could give be a top ten QB this year. He's got too many weapons not to succeed.
Jac vs TB -- Since this has to be the worst pre-season game of the week, I'll discuss MJD. Don't overrate his knee injury. It's painfully obvious that this is a completely horrible offense without Jones-Drew. Pre-season carries mean nothing for Jones-Drew and him "shutting it down" was a great move by Jacksonville, as without him, they are toast.
NYG vs Balt-- I wouldn't put too much stock in anything Jacobs or Bradshaw does in the pre-season. Unless an injury happens, both are going to get plenty of looks this season. I think the "Bradshaw is the number 1" camp has gotten a little too much play recently. Jacobs has had some nice runs this season, and will continue to get plenty of work during the regular season.
Dal vs Hou -- Dallas is fine. Don't worry about their "offensive struggles". The games don't count! Continue to draft accordingly and don't think about downgrading Romo. Arian Foster looks like the real deal in Houston. In some of my leagues, Slaton has made it to the trash heap. If so, pick him up just in case. I'm not saying he's going to do anything..but we have no idea how durable Foster is, or what he'll do over the course of the season. I think the Foster love is legit, but I think the discarding of Slaton in general might be a bit over the top.
Sea vs Minn -- Pay no attention to Favre's numbers. As always, it's pre-season and they don't count. Berrian and Harvin will both be excellent plays, and Camarillo looks to be a nice piece of the puzzle as well. I am worried about the Vikings run-blocking though. I wasn't impressed last year, and I'm still not. Adrian Peterson rarely has holes to run through, and that's with one of the most prolific passers in NFL history playing QB. I don't know what the problem is, but as an ADP owner, I'm worried.
Tenn vs Car -- Fox and Fisher gave absolutely nothing away in this game. I don't know of a single thing you can take from this one other than this: Carolina's receivers outside of Steve Smith are abysmal. As we've thought all off-season, Matt Moore will be ok when Smith plays. Without him, he's going to be poor. Oh and one thought on Vince Young. He fumbles every single game. As a Titans fan, this worries me. The Titans ended up recovering his fumble in this one, but it's becoming a problem. He's got to hold onto the ball.
Arizona vs Chi -- Watching the "twitter feeds", I figured this one would be ugly. But when I actually watched the game, I didn't see quite the gloom in Cutler's performance as everyone else. Sure he made a bad throw or two, did people actually think that Martz is going to turn Cutler into a 30 TD 10 INT QB? Cutler will throw some int's this year. Probably 15-25. But if you think he's going to have a big year, then draft him as such, and don't let these pre-season games change your opinion. Cutler is the QB, he'll throw the ball, and he'll have some big weeks. He'll also lose a few games for Chicago as he has every season he's played. He's the definition of a "gunslinger". One thing that would concern me for Beanie Wells' owners is that it's a foregone conclusion in many people's minds that Wells is going to be the main guy. But so far this pre-season, things don't look any different than last year. I do think Wells' numbers should be better due an increased reliance on the run, but Hightower isn't going anywhere, and he'll still get a ton of PT in Arizona.
SF vs Oak -- I don't see a single thing outside the norm in this one. Murphy looks good, Dixon is an un-remarkable plodder, Campbell and Smith are steady, unspectacular guys..just don't have alot of thoughts on this game.
Pitt vs Den -- Don't overreact to the pitiful performance by Dixon and Leftwich. Whichever QB is decided upon (I would assume Leftwich), will get the benefits of a gameplan designed around them. In pre-season they are many times thrown to the wolves to see how they'll handle it. There is a considerable drop-off in Roethlisberger and the rest, obviously.. But I don't think the Steelers are on a direct path to 0-4. They'll be in the games, and Mendenhall should get a ton of work.
STL vs NE -- Sam Bradford. Did he look good? Yes. But don't think for a second that he isn't going to have many, many struggles this year. Now is not the time to get him. I had him as a target in an upcoming dynasty draft, but have taken him off the radar. Why? Because his value is now too high, and the owner that gets him will most assuredly trade him during the season. Why? Because he has no offensive weapons. Once real NFL defenses get ahold of him, he's going to have a tough year, considering the guys he's throwing the ball to. I still love this kid for the future, but the hype is out of control now.
Ind vs GB -- Jermichael Finley. I love this kid. But I've seen alot of hype come his way in the past few days. Guys now expect him to shatter TE records, be the number 1 TE by a mile...Back to reality a bit. Finley has undeniable talent, and it's undeniable that Rodgers looks his way. But the Packers have a ton of weapons, and so reaching on Finley, when there are 5-7 other TE's that will probably have averages with 1 ppg of Finley is a mistake. If you're in a dynasty, ppr league and you feel that you have to have this guy for the next ten years, I can't argue with that, but if you're predicting a record-breaking 2010 for Finley, I think you need to take a step back and re-analyze.
ATL vs Mia -- MIAMI OFFENSE!!!! PANIC, PANIC, PANIC -- Before you quickly ship off Marshall, Henne and Brown, remember why you have them in the first place. Yes, there are probably areas of concern for Miami, and this team is definetely not going to be an ultra-high scoring offense. But Henne is still a solid backup QB in my estimation, and Marshall is not going to continue to drop passes at this rate. The running game could potentially be an area of concern, but don't let 8 carries in a pre-season game affect your opinion of Ronnie Brown. It's just 8 carries.
NYJ vs WAS -- LT IS BACK!!! Well...I wouldn't be so sure. He has looked much better than last year, and there is no question that the Jets line is much better than the OL of San Diego. But remember it is a very long season. Also, I still saw a number of runs where I felt the LT of old would have taken it to the house. He still seems to go down far too easy. LT still has speed, and he'll still have big gains due to the immense holes the Jets' line opens up. His long run showed that he still has the speed, and he should be a nice compliment to Greene. But Greene is the guy to own in NY. Sanchez has not had a particularly strong camp, the Jets will rely on the running game, and the large number of runs that this team will call benefits the younger RB. LT is still a huge question mark to stay healthy for long periods of time, as it's rare that RB's get better at Tomlinson's age. Once the wear and tear of the season hits, expect the nagging injuries to start piling up for LT.
NO vs SD -- I can't really find anything in this matchup. Two very good offenses, and both looked pretty solid. The part of the box score that really stood out was Bush's 7 receptions for 70 yards. I think Bush's resurgence last year has firmly cemented him in a much more vital part of the Saints' gameplan, and if you're in a PPR league, you need to take notice, as this is not an aberration.
Phi vs KC -- I wouldn't panic on Kolb, I would panic on Cassell. Cassell just still doesn't look confident, and still seems to struggle with many of the same issues that plagued him last year. He still should see his numbers improve due to the weapons around him, but he's not going to turn into an excellent QB, as he's just not that good. With Kolb, first understand that if you are in a league that heavily penalizes turnovers, Kolb is going to hurt you. But he's still going to put up good numbers this year, assuming Desean Jackson stays healthy. Jackson's absence was very noticeable, and his return will keep Kolb as a solid number 2 QB. Anyone that has Kolb as their number 1 was overrating him to begin with.
Cle vs Det -- Was that Jake Delhomme? Shades of the super bowl vs Brady in this pre-season matchup. However, although Detroit's new DT, Suh, looks like a HOF'er already, I don't think Detroit's pre-season defense compares to the defenses Delhomme will see in the AFC North. Expect interceptions, and plenty of them when the regular season starts for Delhomme. Don't even think about rostering Delhomme as a number 2 QB. Leave him off of your roster.
Cincy vs Buf -- Carson Palmer is going to have a very good year. Is his arm going to hold up? I don't know. But the addition of Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham are going to make this offense look completely different this year. His numbers against Buf were legit. It still remains to be seen if his arm is going to have the strength to throw the deep ball with effectiveness anymore. But even so, Palmer is a guy who could give be a top ten QB this year. He's got too many weapons not to succeed.
Jac vs TB -- Since this has to be the worst pre-season game of the week, I'll discuss MJD. Don't overrate his knee injury. It's painfully obvious that this is a completely horrible offense without Jones-Drew. Pre-season carries mean nothing for Jones-Drew and him "shutting it down" was a great move by Jacksonville, as without him, they are toast.
NYG vs Balt-- I wouldn't put too much stock in anything Jacobs or Bradshaw does in the pre-season. Unless an injury happens, both are going to get plenty of looks this season. I think the "Bradshaw is the number 1" camp has gotten a little too much play recently. Jacobs has had some nice runs this season, and will continue to get plenty of work during the regular season.
Dal vs Hou -- Dallas is fine. Don't worry about their "offensive struggles". The games don't count! Continue to draft accordingly and don't think about downgrading Romo. Arian Foster looks like the real deal in Houston. In some of my leagues, Slaton has made it to the trash heap. If so, pick him up just in case. I'm not saying he's going to do anything..but we have no idea how durable Foster is, or what he'll do over the course of the season. I think the Foster love is legit, but I think the discarding of Slaton in general might be a bit over the top.
Sea vs Minn -- Pay no attention to Favre's numbers. As always, it's pre-season and they don't count. Berrian and Harvin will both be excellent plays, and Camarillo looks to be a nice piece of the puzzle as well. I am worried about the Vikings run-blocking though. I wasn't impressed last year, and I'm still not. Adrian Peterson rarely has holes to run through, and that's with one of the most prolific passers in NFL history playing QB. I don't know what the problem is, but as an ADP owner, I'm worried.
Tenn vs Car -- Fox and Fisher gave absolutely nothing away in this game. I don't know of a single thing you can take from this one other than this: Carolina's receivers outside of Steve Smith are abysmal. As we've thought all off-season, Matt Moore will be ok when Smith plays. Without him, he's going to be poor. Oh and one thought on Vince Young. He fumbles every single game. As a Titans fan, this worries me. The Titans ended up recovering his fumble in this one, but it's becoming a problem. He's got to hold onto the ball.
Arizona vs Chi -- Watching the "twitter feeds", I figured this one would be ugly. But when I actually watched the game, I didn't see quite the gloom in Cutler's performance as everyone else. Sure he made a bad throw or two, did people actually think that Martz is going to turn Cutler into a 30 TD 10 INT QB? Cutler will throw some int's this year. Probably 15-25. But if you think he's going to have a big year, then draft him as such, and don't let these pre-season games change your opinion. Cutler is the QB, he'll throw the ball, and he'll have some big weeks. He'll also lose a few games for Chicago as he has every season he's played. He's the definition of a "gunslinger". One thing that would concern me for Beanie Wells' owners is that it's a foregone conclusion in many people's minds that Wells is going to be the main guy. But so far this pre-season, things don't look any different than last year. I do think Wells' numbers should be better due an increased reliance on the run, but Hightower isn't going anywhere, and he'll still get a ton of PT in Arizona.
SF vs Oak -- I don't see a single thing outside the norm in this one. Murphy looks good, Dixon is an un-remarkable plodder, Campbell and Smith are steady, unspectacular guys..just don't have alot of thoughts on this game.
Pitt vs Den -- Don't overreact to the pitiful performance by Dixon and Leftwich. Whichever QB is decided upon (I would assume Leftwich), will get the benefits of a gameplan designed around them. In pre-season they are many times thrown to the wolves to see how they'll handle it. There is a considerable drop-off in Roethlisberger and the rest, obviously.. But I don't think the Steelers are on a direct path to 0-4. They'll be in the games, and Mendenhall should get a ton of work.
I expect Dallas to score 30+ points week one.
Good thread throw. Thanks for taking the time. 
and I agree completely. I could care less about established players like Romo, Cutler, Chris Johnson, Rodgers, etc. but what I do look for is a guy like Foster and not necessarily that he evens runs for 100 yards or breaks big runs but the burst, vision, etc. that is needed, does it look like he belongs? K. Kolb how is he looking, the Leinart situation and the potential impact on their offense as a whole, how does LT look behind a much better line, etc. Even that is not fool proof due to the vanilla offenses and limited touches it's a bit of an indication.
