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Overanalyzing and "experts." Bitter lessons this year. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Kwai Chang Caine
- Start date
Sarnoff
Footballguy
FYI, Ministry of Pain is 1-11 this year.
The_Fonz
Footballguy
Now that is funny. I love his thread and read it every week. I made a big stand yesterday sticking to my genius play of LJ over felix jones....that made a 1pt difference to my total. For what it's worth. I am 10-2 (need mason to get me 14 tonight for the win) I am up 200 pts in total points and 3 games ahead of everyone in the league. /bragging
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
You can't be serious. If there's one thing I've learned in 15 years, it's that records in H2H might be biggest lie of them all.
I'm 8-5 in a ten team league.
Second place and getting a bye next week.
I use many sources to get a good feeling about who I start each week.
I often have difficulty on my flex player. We can start an RB,WR or TE.
Typically I would start a RB, but lately I'm been using Driver, Vernon Davis, Clark etc..
They've been outscoring the RB's.
For example, this week I sat Roddy White and he went OFF. I didn't feel good about the Eagles defense and a new QB and new RB. I WAS WRONG!
I also sat Meachem. I listened to the experts say Wash. had a tough pass defense. I WAS WRONG!
Played Vernon David = Stud
Played Fitzgerald = Stud with Warner back in at QB.
Playing Driver tonight = ??
Read everything you can, look at the rankings here and elsewhere. Play the matchups and your gut and sleep well my friend.
Second place and getting a bye next week.
I use many sources to get a good feeling about who I start each week.
I often have difficulty on my flex player. We can start an RB,WR or TE.
Typically I would start a RB, but lately I'm been using Driver, Vernon Davis, Clark etc..
They've been outscoring the RB's.
For example, this week I sat Roddy White and he went OFF. I didn't feel good about the Eagles defense and a new QB and new RB. I WAS WRONG!
I also sat Meachem. I listened to the experts say Wash. had a tough pass defense. I WAS WRONG!
Played Vernon David = Stud
Played Fitzgerald = Stud with Warner back in at QB.
Playing Driver tonight = ??
Read everything you can, look at the rankings here and elsewhere. Play the matchups and your gut and sleep well my friend.
lyon812
Footballguy
No doubt. I've seen teams with the highest point total in the league finish out of the playoffs. Great team, bad luck in matchups. And no, that wasn't me.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Venting thread down?
Righetti
Footballguy
i agree with most everything that is said here but there is one part that should not be forgotten
I have Roddy White and the week he will play the Jets will be a week I sit him. Not because I have more talented backups BUT because Revis is a total shut-down corner. I'm a Jets fan so obviously I know this from watching the games but if I were not than I would need to have read this on a board somewhere to really know it.
The information dump we all deal with is loaded with traps, it's the way we siphon through it that makes for a successful fantasy season.
I have Roddy White and the week he will play the Jets will be a week I sit him. Not because I have more talented backups BUT because Revis is a total shut-down corner. I'm a Jets fan so obviously I know this from watching the games but if I were not than I would need to have read this on a board somewhere to really know it.
The information dump we all deal with is loaded with traps, it's the way we siphon through it that makes for a successful fantasy season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I just wanted to comment on the difficult starting decision issue as maybe my perspective on this can help someone out. This league is dynasty not PPR and you can start 3RB.
Here is the main players of my roster:
Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB (P)
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ®
Parker, Willie PIT RB
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Portis, Clinton WAS RB (O) 65.10 8 FA
Taylor, Chester MIN RB
Williams, Carnell TBB RB
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Harvin, Percy MIN WR ®
Johnson, Andre HOU WR
Moss, Randy NEP WR
Smith, Steve NYG WR
Clark, Dallas IND TE
Davis, Vernon SFO TE
For the 1st 5 games Steve Smith was the highest scoring WR in the league. I never started him once. Harvin despite his terrific season thus far is a rookie and does not start for me even though I am using 4WR and 2RB most of the time.
The past 2 games I have been starting Clark and Davis over Harvin and Steve Smtih. This is not an easy decision but since both of them have been playing so well it is hard to bench either of them.
Yes I have tried multiple times to trade some of this depth for another starting capable player to add to my lineup. Trades just have not happened yet.
If I were to beat myself up for not starting Steve Smith over Moss/Andre/Colston I would not be able to play this game.
Since I have a dynansty perspective I don't do many waiver moves during the season. I already have looked at matchups before the season began and for the most part decided who I am going to start. This is more just risk management and experience.
Your starting of Gonzalez over Vernon Davis is actualy the conservative thing to do. I could see an owner who had both starting Gonzo all year long despite the year Davis has had and I would not really disagree with that even though the numbers tell a different story.
You play your proven players until a younger player proves they deserve to start over them. What time frame are you looking at for proof?
I usualy look at the season in 4 game chunks. If my younger player for example Steve Smith has been out-producing my normal starters then yes I have to look at it but in the end I was still starting Moss/Andre/Colston in week 5 anyways. Smith is now approaching a place that I have to consider him over these guys but I still have not done it all year.
Smith does get a start at WR4 over Harvin because Smith is not a rookie. But the past 2 weeks I have been playing Clark/Davis over him as a value based decision.
If Portis were healthy then I have to consider him with Smith and TE and Harvin too. That is what depth is for so you can keep moving after injuries but his getting hurt has made my decision making process easier.
Except for injuries I give little attention to matchups when making these decisions.
Running a redraft team is totaly different. Playing matchups and picking up hot players are much more critical in that format.
Here is the main players of my roster:
Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB (P)
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ®
Parker, Willie PIT RB
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Portis, Clinton WAS RB (O) 65.10 8 FA
Taylor, Chester MIN RB
Williams, Carnell TBB RB
Colston, Marques NOS WR
Harvin, Percy MIN WR ®
Johnson, Andre HOU WR
Moss, Randy NEP WR
Smith, Steve NYG WR
Clark, Dallas IND TE
Davis, Vernon SFO TE
For the 1st 5 games Steve Smith was the highest scoring WR in the league. I never started him once. Harvin despite his terrific season thus far is a rookie and does not start for me even though I am using 4WR and 2RB most of the time.
The past 2 games I have been starting Clark and Davis over Harvin and Steve Smtih. This is not an easy decision but since both of them have been playing so well it is hard to bench either of them.
Yes I have tried multiple times to trade some of this depth for another starting capable player to add to my lineup. Trades just have not happened yet.
If I were to beat myself up for not starting Steve Smith over Moss/Andre/Colston I would not be able to play this game.
Since I have a dynansty perspective I don't do many waiver moves during the season. I already have looked at matchups before the season began and for the most part decided who I am going to start. This is more just risk management and experience.
Your starting of Gonzalez over Vernon Davis is actualy the conservative thing to do. I could see an owner who had both starting Gonzo all year long despite the year Davis has had and I would not really disagree with that even though the numbers tell a different story.
You play your proven players until a younger player proves they deserve to start over them. What time frame are you looking at for proof?
I usualy look at the season in 4 game chunks. If my younger player for example Steve Smith has been out-producing my normal starters then yes I have to look at it but in the end I was still starting Moss/Andre/Colston in week 5 anyways. Smith is now approaching a place that I have to consider him over these guys but I still have not done it all year.
Smith does get a start at WR4 over Harvin because Smith is not a rookie. But the past 2 weeks I have been playing Clark/Davis over him as a value based decision.
If Portis were healthy then I have to consider him with Smith and TE and Harvin too. That is what depth is for so you can keep moving after injuries but his getting hurt has made my decision making process easier.
Except for injuries I give little attention to matchups when making these decisions.
Running a redraft team is totaly different. Playing matchups and picking up hot players are much more critical in that format.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Isn't putting in all the time what's fun though? The games, and of course winning are awesome (repeat championship possible xD) but I love sitting down and sifting through all the info, and learning new things about football every day...
like fumbling rules that explicitly apply only in the last 2 minutes of a half and at the goalline. Or that it's actually better to punch the ball out of bounds than try to recove ron an onside if you're returning team.
Or the fact that you can indeed flag a ballcarrier for a facemask...looking at you Peterson. Or that tripping can be called when making a takckle? I always thought it was only when tripping people who didn't have the ball...who kneW?
Now some people are gonna come in here and get their kicks in on some of those things, but they're the best examples I've got. Learnign tiny little differences and intricacies and finding more out about football and it's players are what make this for me.
like fumbling rules that explicitly apply only in the last 2 minutes of a half and at the goalline. Or that it's actually better to punch the ball out of bounds than try to recove ron an onside if you're returning team.
Or the fact that you can indeed flag a ballcarrier for a facemask...looking at you Peterson. Or that tripping can be called when making a takckle? I always thought it was only when tripping people who didn't have the ball...who kneW?
Now some people are gonna come in here and get their kicks in on some of those things, but they're the best examples I've got. Learnign tiny little differences and intricacies and finding more out about football and it's players are what make this for me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah these are examples of rare random things that can happen during a game that might affect the outcome.I am glad Peterson got called for facemask. I don't think I have seen a flag for that.. I am not sure if there was another time. It is something I have griped about as a double standard in how the refs call a game.AD blatantly grabbed the face mask and held on awhile is the only reason I think it was called. Ball carriers usualy get away with a face mask hit to the head while a defender rarely will.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I agree...just trying to put somethin down there that a lot of people might not have known if not for the amazingness of putting time into FF
LordHusker
Hot sauce addict
Two years ago, I decided to stop subscribing to a pay site and put that money toward in-season transactions. I have fared just about the same as I always did, but it's nice to be able to make a few extra transactions without feeling "guilty" about spent money.
Experts fail because they try to spoonfeed the important decisions for you with their weekly start/sit and projections... These formats are very popular because they are easy to skim and help the novice with limited time make a decision based on the appeal of an expert rather than the information at hand. All the data the experts had used was hidden from the end-user and you are supposed to start someone because he said so? I don't think so... Football is never that easy. You actually have to do more work than you have been doing to make informed matchup decisions. If experts just released the raw information they used to make their judgements and gave us their detailed expert opinion on each player without the pressure to tell you whether to sit or start them then their information would be much more useful. Yet even this site doesn't give you that kind of information... Raw stats, film, and actual football news is much more important than cheatsheets, projections, and start/sit columns. If you are able to analyze that kind of information you can actually paint your own picture and it would probably end up working pretty well for you. Of course no one has that amount of that time unless they are unemployed...
I play in one (and only one) league each year. It is a total points league and I have been in 1st place for the past three weeks. I also had more points this week than any other team in the league. But guess what? My record has absolutely nothing what so ever to do with the truth of my statements. I'm not sure why you would think it does.
Chaka
Footballguy
I always look forward to film study night in the Chaka household.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
"Experts" fail because everyone in fantasy football fails. FF championships are won by the players who make the least crappy draft/lineup decisions. The minute you start doubting that, I'd encourage you to look at your (or anyone's) number of bench pts. on the year. All due respect, readers fail to interpret the information being presented them as often as the experts fail to deliver it correctly. No matter how often I see the disclaimer associated with start/sit that this info. should only be used for close lineup decisions involving similarly valued players - we still see the weekly "I can't stand what Vincent Jackson is doing...gotta roll with the hot-handed Mike Wallace". If Jackson was a "sit" that week at your site, all the more convenient.BTW...what "raw stats" are you looking for? I know of a couple of free sites out there that record everything short of how often Andre Johnson farmer-blew and wiped it on his sleeve this weekend.
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delusional
Footballguy
go with your gut
sites like this i imagine are good for dynasty leagues. i however never paid for a ff site.
forums, which u can find anywhere, are good for WW moves and injury updates from homers.
sites like this i imagine are good for dynasty leagues. i however never paid for a ff site.
forums, which u can find anywhere, are good for WW moves and injury updates from homers.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I have never paid for anything from FF sites & am always in the top 3 or winning my leagues every year.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Ron Popeil.."I put way too much time into this "hobby" and I see some of my league-mates show up at the draft with a magazine and then basically set their lineups and only make big changes for bye weeks or injury."
Next year: ONE magazine, the free shark pool, "Set It and Forget It" and maybe learn the cello or Sanskrit with all my new found free time
too many times I've seen the same thing, GM's showing up with 1 mag they picked up on the way to the draft, a small printout from CBS sportsline , and they make the post-season.whileguys like you and me are watching the NFL draft, looking at player movements in March, preseason games, etc, only to finish 5-8.I, like you, have spent WAY too much time on fantasy football
The_Fonz
Footballguy
You are right, points are more important. I won total points last year but lost in the first round of playoffs. For the most part my league is muddled with all teams separated by 1-2 games. But you can't tell me that advice from someone with a 10-2 record wouldn't comfort you more than advice from someone with a 2-10 record.
perry147
Footballguy
Depending on the league and how competitive it is.
Circumstantial stats. Not sure if any site can offer that kind of information or if it's the kind of thing where you got to dig in really deep on your own. For example, stats for players playing their first game after a concussion or stats for RBs coming off high ankle sprains. Also, playcalling stats. How many times does a certain team run out of the I formation/shotgun/singleback, # of times WR is placed in the slot or ends, routes run by specific players (deep, underneath, screen), plays called in certain yardage situations (1 yard from goal), soft areas of the defense (% of successful plays deep, flats, etc), and the respective stats for players involved in all scenarios. I could go on and on forever and there's a lot of stats I'd like to know but this would be going to an extent far beyond normal fantasy football players. However, I feel that changes in offensive philosophy and player utilization would be one of the better indicators of sleeper candidates vs one game wonders. If anything it would help understand why someone's numbers were up rather than they were just hot that game or the defense was bad.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Site owners aren't hoarding these stats from you. Much of what you list above isn't tracked.
No offense, that's hard to believe. There's stats for everything these days. Maybe it's not open to the public but it's out there. Like I remember watching a colts game and they showed a graph of how many plays Wayne ran on the left side, slot, and right side and he was predominantly in the left side and slot but rarely in the right side because that was where Marvin Harrison was. I also remember watching a patriots game and they showed a chart with with the amount of welker's receptions from 0-5, 5-15, and beyond 15. I forget the numbers but it was an obscene amount of balls from 0-5 yards, a moderate amount from 5-15, but rarely any balls beyond 15 yards. I see those kind of commentaries all the time and I can't believe people just pull these numbers out of thin air. Maybe there's not a set chart with all these listed readily so you have to do your own research and compile a report but people at big networks like ESPN and CBS should have the manpower to get these kinds of stats. And how often do you hear people talk about how players coming off high ankle sprains have a decrease in performance? There should be numbers there too. I may be asking about something that I might never see, but it has got to be out there...
LOL. This is a bit absurd. You're talking about stuff some NFL teams and their scouts are likely not even tracking. THis is exactly the kind of data that will fall you prey to the 'overanalysis'
Really? If I was an offensive coordinator on a football team I'd pick my plays purely based on the math of it all. And as for "overanalysis," it depends on HOW you use the data. I'm not saying I'd use the data to predict the outcome of every game but instead, using it to analyze why games were played certain ways and why one receiver was dominating and another stud just seemingly disappeared then it would be useful in spotting trends. But yeah, I guess not many people will see it the same way but I think the more information you have, even seemingly obscure statistics, the better edge you have.For example, I was wondering why Alex Smith did very well whenever it was down to the two minute drill or behind by a lot of points but every other time he didn't do very well like during that game against Chicago. It didn't make any sense to me. When you figure out that it was because the guy is better playing out of the shotgun then it makes sense. Information on his performance in shotgun vs performance in the I-formation would be useful then wouldn't it? Another example is how Eddie Royal is not used primarily in the slot anymore and instead Stokley or Gaffney are and their numbers are up while Royal is mostly invisible this year.In my mind, these stats provide explanations but I guess i'm crazy.
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montana_grizzly_bears
Footballguy
This is something I really started to think about a couple weeks ago. I started the season 3-0 and than I made one trade that good at the time and now looks horrible. McNabb and Welker (who were both injured at the time) and Caddy for Moreno and R. Williams, picking up Massequoi to fill my roster. I already had DJackson and AJohnson at wr and Flacco at QB doing well for me but wanted a better #2 rb. Right now my record stands at 4-9. That's right, 1-9 in the last 10 weeks. Had I not made that trade or given into the other guy wanting Jackson my season would have turned out to be 8-5 right now and into the playoffs.
Every offseason I spend countless hours doing mocks or reading different sites or just chatting about fantasy football and this is how my season turns out. I think I am just going to go with my wife's strategy for picks- take the same players every year, not worry about value or waiting on someone til a round later. No more heart ache each week with who to start and who to drop for what hot player. Take the best 14 that I see and ride it out through the season.
Every offseason I spend countless hours doing mocks or reading different sites or just chatting about fantasy football and this is how my season turns out. I think I am just going to go with my wife's strategy for picks- take the same players every year, not worry about value or waiting on someone til a round later. No more heart ache each week with who to start and who to drop for what hot player. Take the best 14 that I see and ride it out through the season.
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The other Hassellback brother taught me a valuable lesson about this topic just this week on the ESPN fantasy football show. He was saying his brother (Matt Hassellback) way playing against a tought Jacksonville defense, so he sat himself in his own fantasy football leauge. Matt then when out and threw for 4 TD's. If Matt can't predict that he is going to have a big game, what chance do you or anyone else have of getting it right.
Take it easy, keep it fun, make your best educated guesses, and accept the fact that if you are really good, you will be wrong 45% of the time.
Take it easy, keep it fun, make your best educated guesses, and accept the fact that if you are really good, you will be wrong 45% of the time.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Sure, the stuff on the WR's you're talking about gets tracked. www.profootballfocus.com You can get lost for hours in that site. The other stuff like average stats when returning from a high ankle sparin. I'm almost positive it doesn't exist. That I know of, nobody keeps an injury database because no injury is created equal.
Chaka
Footballguy
Have you considered dating or perhaps getting a puppy as an alternative way of occupying your time?
stuff like stats after high ankle sprain don't exist because the variable is too vague. There are an infinite number of levels of high ankle sprains, infinite number of levels of pain threshold in players, how well the team is doing on not doing dictating the need to rush the player back etc. Some things can't be quantified mathametically...Thats exactly why I wasn't a huge fan of the 4th and 2. It's easy to say we convert 4th and 2 x% of the time, and Peyton scores from 70 yards out y% of the time and all that nonsense, but you don't take into account the infinite number of other variables that go into the equation. If sports were so predictable via math, they wouldn't bother playing the games. Have a computer simulate the outcome based on the math...
Otis said:
Surprisingly, there is no magical website or expert that can guarantee you fantasy victory. If there were we'd see nothing but ties, because everyone would be doing the same thing.Guppies think that if their decision doesn't pan out, its the wrong decision. Sharks know that you make the most informed decision you can, play all the angles, and then the chips will fall where they may. We're talking about percentages here. Even if you have a 60/40 advantage you're still going to lose 40% of the time. If you play in a 10 man league you'd 'naturally' expect to win once a decade. If you win twice you've already doubled your output. Expecting to win or even finish in the money every year (given reasonable opponent) is unrealistic.
Double Naught Spy
Footballguy
It does if your playing against 15 8 year old girls.
The ideal, and best , fantasy site has not yet been created. It will be a site that has specific intelligence regarding a team's gameplan...who they'll be using, who they'll be attacking, particular formations that should work aginst an opponent, etc. They would need to have insiders associated with the teams that could leak the info. If someone asked me what i would most look for in a site, that would be it.
For now, all the sites and "experts" are essentially the same..they all throw out there all information which is publicly known, do some number crunching for us, and offer their opinions as to what the numbers show. FBG is the only site i've used for years because their information is the most complete..but i rarely consult their cheatsheets or even projections. I draw my own conclusions from the info provided. A lot of times when i guess wrong i say i should have taken their advice. I've had an off year because of some horrible lineup blunders, including blowing a WCOFF league title and spot in the championship bracket by switching kickers at the last second, but it was not because someone recommended i do it, but a misprocessing of the info provided.
For now, all the sites and "experts" are essentially the same..they all throw out there all information which is publicly known, do some number crunching for us, and offer their opinions as to what the numbers show. FBG is the only site i've used for years because their information is the most complete..but i rarely consult their cheatsheets or even projections. I draw my own conclusions from the info provided. A lot of times when i guess wrong i say i should have taken their advice. I've had an off year because of some horrible lineup blunders, including blowing a WCOFF league title and spot in the championship bracket by switching kickers at the last second, but it was not because someone recommended i do it, but a misprocessing of the info provided.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
And truthfully, this site will never exist because anything even close to what you're describing would be quickly bought out or employed by the highest bidding NFL franchise. Heck, truth be told - NFL franchises THEMSELVES spend millions of dollars trying (most unsuccessfully) to answer the questions this mythical website would answer. If they get it wrong X% of the time, that says an awful lot.
and yet you have the audacity to believe that you have a better grasp of all those variables than bill belicek. you believe you know enough about his team, the way they are playing, the way they are feeling, what they grasp and perform in practice, what they are capable of, than the man who actually spends 14+ hrs a day evaluating them.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
The experts overanalyzed the Steelers/Browns game and got it right.
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