Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Owen Daniels Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jason Wood]

Just to get the conversation going (summer in full force right now it seems in terms of traffic)...

Daniels has proven himself to be a true fantasy asset, particularly in PPR leagues, and I shudder to think what kind of trajectory he might have been on had he stayed healthy for the full 16 game schedule last year as Matt Schaub finally ascended into the elite tier. What's fascinating is that people may look at last year (TE17) and see 5 TDs and think to themselves, "Daniels never grabs a lot of scores." Yet, as we all know, that was 5 TDs in 8 games. He was finally on pace for a monster TD season to go along with his usual prodigious reception totals.

The key to Daniels this year is, of course, his health. The guy has never been explosive, but was certainly not a plodder either (witness his 12.1 career yards per reception average). If he is back on the field for training camp and looking good, I could see his justifying his current ADP (TE8). But we have to remember that the NFL is a fickle, what have you done for me lately league, and he really needs to produce and stay healthy.

*** He's playing on a one-year deal

*** James Casey (a Cec and Bloom favorite) is skilled enough to take a big leap forward with the right opportunity

*** Garrett Graham (a 4th rounder this year) is pretty much a Daniels clone in many ways

 

[sholditch]

Daniels won't be unseated unless he fails spectacularly. He's elite at his position and there are only a few I would take ahead of him in redraft (Gates, Davis, Clark, maybe Finley)

I see 70 rec, ~950 yards and 8 scores

 

[baconisgood]

I wouldn't project Daniels until I looked into how receivers had done returning from a similar type of injury.

I won't listen to any projections that don't do that. Wish I had the time.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Houston is a passing machine and Owen Daniels is trusted by his QB. The only concern for Daniels of course is lasting the 16 game season, which certainly didn't happen last year. Still, it's a new season and he runs decent routes and hangs on to the ball.

60 catches 700 yards and 5 td's

 

[Lab]

I wouldn't project Daniels until I looked into how receivers had done returning from a similar type of injury.

I won't listen to any projections that don't do that. Wish I had the time.

I looked quickly and did not see any articles that discuss recoveries by receivers with ACL tears, but I did find one that talks about RBs: Westbrook, Holmes, McGahee, Ronnie Brown (http://www.fantasyfootballxtreme.com/fantasy-football-resources/fantasy-football-injury-dictionary/). And here is an older article (2006) that suggests WRs & RBs recovering from ACL lose about one-third of their power/ability: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/200...c-pow113006.php .Here is Daniels' stat-line from 2007-09, with his eight games in 2009 extrapolated to a 16-game season:

Year: [receptions]/[targets] (%), [yards] for [TDs]

2007: 63/94 (67%), 768 for 3

2008: 70/100 (70%), 862 for 2

2009: 80/116 (69%), 1038 for 10

Average of 3 years: 71/103 (69%), 889 for 5 (nice upward trend!)

2009 minus 30%: 56/81 (69%), 727 for 7

My projection: 60/87 (69%), 750 yards for 5 TDs

 

[Futz]

I'm seeing some serious optimism on OD's potential to return and be healthy in this thread. Keep in mind his recent knee injury was his third ACL tear in his football career. While you root for the guy, his body is failing him.

This is a contract year and my guess is that at some point in the season when he begins to have full confidence in his cutting abilities, he's going to reinjure himself trying to do a little too much to secure that next contract. It's speculation for sure, but I think it's legit.

I'd stay away in a redraft and absolutely get him up for sale early in the year in a dynasty after he's had a good game or two.

Just my .02

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Yaknow, I realize that there is a lot of love for UT's own Jermichael Finley (and I get that), but....

....are people forgetting the guy who was leading a lot of leagues at the tight end position last year? One Mr. Owen Daniels.

Everybody wants somebody on the vaunted Texans' offense:

Schaub? Check.

Foster? Check, check.

AJ: CHECK.

Jacoby? Check.

And I get that Daniels is returning from knee surgery, but it was in the middle of the season and so he has had more time to return than say if it had been at the end of the year. What is there not to like about the upside of Owen Daniels?

Is he going as cheaply and as unnnoticed as it seems to me that he is?

If you can afford to wait a couple games to see when he returns, this guy for his value (and considering how much Finley's value has risen, he has had one 100+ yard game in 2 full seasons while Daniels has 3 in 1-1/12 seasons) seems like an awesome grab.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

What is there not to like about the upside of Owen Daniels?

The problem is most players aren't going to pick up their production right where they left off after a major knee injury. If he had some great recovery people might get excited, but by all accounts he's only going to see around half the snaps in week 1. Factor in the depth at the TE position and there doesn't appear to be huge value there.