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Parcells (1 Viewer)

Did Parcells screw up the call in going for the field goal?

  • Yes. You don't give the Seahawks that much time--when they have a timeout and and Josh Brown--n

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No. You take the points and put your defense out there and let them make a play.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

nuts&bolts

Footballguy
Put yourself in Parcells' shoes on that 4th-down call. What do you do? Take the "guaranteed" points with the field goal, and give the Seahawks the ball with one minute to go (and a timeout)? Or do you go for it, trusting that MBIII can get the 18 inches you need to either:

1) get the first down and salt the game away, or

2) get the TD and force the Seahawks to score a touchdown to win.

Even if Romo doesn't botch the hold and the kick is good--did Parcells make the right call?

 
He made the right call...

---

1. Probability of a succesful FG of less than 20 yards -> 95.9%

2. Probability that the '06 Cowboys are succesful in converting a 4th-and-1 (based on their 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 success this year)... -> 65.6%

3. From 2. - If we consider the 65.6% where the Cowboys gain the 1st down... We will have to assume a 50/50 chance that the Cowboys score on that play or just get the 1st down without scoring

4. Probability of winning when trailing by 1 - with 3 timeouts left - with approximately 1:30 left, when your opponent has the ball on 1st down on their own 1yl -> 4.34% (see below)

5. Probability of winning when trailing by less than 3 - with 0 timeout left - with approximately 1:00 left -> 24.7% (see below)

6. Probability of winning when trailing by more than 3 - with 0 timeout left - with approximately 1:00 left -> 10.4% (see below)

For 5. and 6. - I used the "own30yl" from the previous site - assuming that the Seahawks kickoff return gets them there (they started, on average, at their own32yl in that particular game)

For 4. I used the 0:30 left - no timeout - trailing by less than 3 points - on the 50yl = 0.3013 (probability that the Cowboys get a FG after having stopped the Seahawks on three consecutive runs - having used their 3 timeouts)... multiplied by the probability that the Cowboys force the Seahawks into a 3-and-out (14.4% NFL average)... 0.3013 * 0.144 = 0.0434

---

Let's look at the Cowboys probability of winning...

Scenario 1. Kick the FG:

goodFG + stopSEA = .959 * (1- .247) = .7221

Scenario 2. Go for it on 4th-and-1:

don't_make_it + 3_and_out + DalFG = (1- .656) * .0434 = .0149

make_it(TD) + stopSEA = .656 * .50 * (1 - .104) = .2939

make_it(noTD) + goodFG = .656 * .50 * .959 = .3146

Summing = .6234

---

Conclusion...

Approximate probability that the Cowboys win when trying the FG: 72.2%

Approximate probability that the Cowboys win when going for it on 4th down: 62.3%

Good decision... Obvisouly, those are rough estimates... and by no mean is it "game over if Gramatica makes it"... but, history showed us that the Cowboys had a better chance of winning by kicking the FG (72%) rather than going for it on 4th-and-1 (62%)

---

In fact, the only relevant variable in these equations is the "probability that Dallas makes it on 4th-and-1"... And it is easy to calculate the break-even point / where it would have been a good decision to go on 4th-and-1...

Solving for that variable in the above equations - we get the following results: 76.7 %...

This means that...

If you think that the Cowboys had more than 77% chance of getting the 1st down by going for it on 4th-and-1 -> they should have gone for it;

If you think that the Cowboys had less than 77% chance of getting the 1st down by going for it on 4th-and-1 -> they should have kicked the FG.

 
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For 5. and 6. - I used the "own30yl" from the previous site
What site are you referring to?I like the math--that's really cool. But Julius Jones averages over 4 yards per carry, so they should have just given him the ball on that play and he easily would have scored, on average, right? :wall: That's the funny thing about numbers. . .

My point is this--if you can't gain 18 inches, you probably don't deserve to win that game anyway (which, objectively, I don't think that they did). I didn't like the call--I don't like the message that it sent to the team. QB sneak it for 18 inches, for crying out loud!

 
:lmao:

Imagine they go for it and get stuffed. Parcells at the post-game:

"Well yeah, we would've liked to take the sure points and take the lead...but 90 seconds is just too much time left on the clock."

 
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:wall:Imagine they go for it and get stuffed. Parcells at the post-game:"Well yeah, we would've liked to take the sure points and take the lead...but 90 seconds is just too much time left on the clock."
:wall: It's all about the call--it really is. Had the Cowboys kicked the field goal and won, with the way their defense plays pass coverage (yes, I'm talking to you, Roy Williams), with the Seahawks having a timeout, and with Josh Brown kicking--I would have counted the Cowboys as lucky.What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it? "Gee, he thought that his team could make 18 inches when they really needed to. He was wrong." I wouldn't fault the guy for going for the choke hold on the victory.
 
Good gravy......come on dude you can't be serious.

He made the right call at that point. Anyone can see that.

Cowboy fan alert for the following observation

I do find Parcells calpable on a few things:

1)An inflexible approach to Defense

a-No DL stunts

b-Ware covering down field

c-Roy Williams...use him properly.

2) An inability to develop leaders on this team, because Bill is the "Show".

3) Poor scheming Offensively

a) Seattle had 3 corners off the street, how many deep balls were thrown........maybe 1.

4) This team has not been ready to play for the last 5 weeks....WHY?

Time for a new philosophy. The only way I want to see him back is...if the Master Plan is to hire Cowher or Fisher the following year. Otherwise, let's get the new guy in there, becasue this team is NOT 1 year away.

Just my 0.02.

 
Going for the FG was the right decision. How can anyone think otherwise? Yes, there would have been plenty of time on the clock for Seattle to get into position to win the game with a FG of their own, but you kick the FG and hope your defense can hold them.

 
Good gravy......come on dude you can't be serious.He made the right call at that point. Anyone can see that. Cowboy fan alert for the following observationI do find Parcells calpable on a few things:1)An inflexible approach to Defense a-No DL stuntsb-Ware covering down fieldc-Roy Williams...use him properly.2) An inability to develop leaders on this team, because Bill is the "Show".3) Poor scheming Offensivelya) Seattle had 3 corners off the street, how many deep balls were thrown........maybe 1.4) This team has not been ready to play for the last 5 weeks....WHY?Time for a new philosophy. The only way I want to see him back is...if the Master Plan is to hire Cowher or Fisher the following year. Otherwise, let's get the new guy in there, becasue this team is NOT 1 year away.Just my 0.02.
I'm a homer, too, so perhaps that clouds my judgment. But I was yelling, "Gutless wonder!!" at the TV when the field goal team came onto the field. Sure, hindsight proved me "right," but I wouldn't have liked the call had the made the field goal or not.Parcells needs to go. I think he lost this team down the stretch.But seriously--18 inches? Nobody--NOBODY looks at it like that? If there was one coach in the NFL who would adhere to the mantra of "if you can't make 18 inches, you don't deserve to win," I would think it would be Parcells.
 
Going for the FG was the right decision. How can anyone think otherwise? Yes, there would have been plenty of time on the clock for Seattle to get into position to win the game with a FG of their own, but you kick the FG and hope your defense can hold them.
I see you haven't watched any Dallas games in the second half of this season.Plus, Josh Brown is money in these situations. :money:

 
But seriously--18 inches? Nobody--NOBODY looks at it like that? If there was one coach in the NFL who would adhere to the mantra of "if you can't make 18 inches, you don't deserve to win," I would think it would be Parcells.
I believe earlier in the game they needed like four inches and didn't get it.
 
He made the right call, in that type of game you definately take the points. That is the style needed to win superbowls in the NFL. Plus marion Barber was something like 2 for 24 on third/fourth and short during the season. Not a very good percentage. He learned his lesson from the Eagles game.

 
Going for the FG was the right decision. How can anyone think otherwise? Yes, there would have been plenty of time on the clock for Seattle to get into position to win the game with a FG of their own, but you kick the FG and hope your defense can hold them.
I see you haven't watched any Dallas games in the second half of this season.Plus, Josh Brown is money in these situations. :money:
Dallas' defense had played well most of that game the other day, allowing only 19 points. And yes, Brown IS money in those types of situations, but you have to make the attempt to take the lead there. You have to.

 
I can't believe this is a matter of discussion. You take the points and the lead. If Parcells had gone for it and not made the 4th down, he would be ridiculed. And if the freak fumble doesn't happen, we wouldn't be talking about this. 31 other NFL head coaches would have kicked the FG there.

 
But seriously--18 inches? Nobody--NOBODY looks at it like that? If there was one coach in the NFL who would adhere to the mantra of "if you can't make 18 inches, you don't deserve to win," I would think it would be Parcells.
I believe earlier in the game they needed like four inches and didn't get it.
Then I probably wouldn't call that play in this situation. Let's not overstate the situation here--they weren't facing the 85 Bears defense.
 
I can't believe this is a matter of discussion. You take the points and the lead. If Parcells had gone for it and not made the 4th down, he would be ridiculed. And if the freak fumble doesn't happen, we wouldn't be talking about this. 31 other NFL head coaches would have kicked the FG there.
Well, we have no idea about that. You give Holmgren a minute, a timeout, and Josh Brown and Dallas' defense to operate against--I think there is a good chance that we revisit that call, even if Gramatica's field goal was good.Edited for clarity.

 
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nuts&bolts, how did you feel about Marty Mornhinweg's decision to kickoff in overtime?
:angry: Seems like that decision was based on "the stats", right? (Teams kicking off in OT win more often than the teams receiving). My argument seems to fly in the face of "the stats." Not sure what your point is. . .
 
Could have sworn it was Romo that botched the FG snap. Did Parcell's suit up and take that snap??? If so, he definately lost the game for them. I'll check the replay.

 
nuts&bolts, how did you feel about Marty Mornhinweg's decision to kickoff in overtime?
:shrug: Seems like that decision was based on "the stats", right? (Teams kicking off in OT win more often than the teams receiving).
:headbang:
My argument seems to fly in the face of "the stats."
;)
Not sure what your point is. . .
I consider your proposal to "go for it" to be completely off the wall. Another famous off the wall coaching decision was when Marty Mornhinweg chose to kickoff in overtime.
 
For 5. and 6. - I used the "own30yl" from the previous site
What site are you referring to?I like the math--that's really cool. But Julius Jones averages over 4 yards per carry, so they should have just given him the ball on that play and he easily would have scored, on average, right? :no: That's the funny thing about numbers. . .

My point is this--if you can't gain 18 inches, you probably don't deserve to win that game anyway (which, objectively, I don't think that they did). I didn't like the call--I don't like the message that it sent to the team. QB sneak it for 18 inches, for crying out loud!
here
 
Doesn't matter. Make that kick and Seattle slices through the gawd awful pass defense gets another FG shot and wins the game that way. Not getting that first down cost them the game, not the hold.

 
nuts&bolts, how did you feel about Marty Mornhinweg's decision to kickoff in overtime?
:ph34r: Seems like that decision was based on "the stats", right? (Teams kicking off in OT win more often than the teams receiving).
:shrug: Are you sure about this?
My argument seems to fly in the face of "the stats."
:confused:
Not sure what your point is. . .
I consider your proposal to "go for it" to be completely off the wall. Another famous off the wall coaching decision was when Marty Mornhinweg chose to kickoff in overtime.
See bolded above--I could have sworn that that statistic (teams receiving the kickoff in OT actually *lose* more often than the kicking team) was floating around somewhere.
 
What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it?
That he's a freaking idiot and made the worst call in the history of football?
This is correct.
IIRC when Switzer coached the Cowboys, he went for it on 4th and one with Emmitt....didn't make it. Can't remember why, penalty or time out, but the play didn't count. Switzer ran Emmitt into the line again and got stuffed. Cowboys lost (to the Eagles, I think).Also, Dallas had its first ever KO return for a TD in the post season with Parcells vs. Seattle this week. Shouldn't Parcells get the credit for his special teams coaching keeping him in the game as much as the blame for Romo botching the snap?
 
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But seriously--18 inches? Nobody--NOBODY looks at it like that? If there was one coach in the NFL who would adhere to the mantra of "if you can't make 18 inches, you don't deserve to win," I would think it would be Parcells.
I believe earlier in the game they needed like four inches and didn't get it.
:ph34r: This probably swayed Parcells decision if he had any notion of going for it as he probably didn't like his chance of making it on 4th and short. It is pretty lame to blame the guy for kicking the FG in this situation when basically 99.9% of the coaches in this league would do the same thing.My opinion is it was the smart play to go for the FG.
 
What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it?
That he's a freaking idiot and made the worst call in the history of football?
This is correct.
IIRC when Switzer coached the Cowboys, he went for it on 4th and one with Emmitt....didn't make it. Can't remember why, penalty or time out, but the play didn't count. Switzer ran Emmitt into the line again and got stuffed. Cowboys lost (to the Eagles, I think).Also, Dallas had its first ever KO return for a TD in the post season with Parcells vs. Seattle this week. Shouldn't Parcells get the credit for his special teams coaching keeping him in the game as much as the blame for Romo botching the snap?
I don't know why you quoted me when your post has nothing to do with the issue at hand.If you want to argue that Parcells lost the game because he was responsible for Romo botching the snap - well, then by all means do so. I think that's a little ridiculous, but the point of this thread is did Parcells lose the game by calling for a FG.
 
I see 37 people in the SP know the basics of football, and 4 have no idea what they're talking about...or clicked the wrong choice accidentally.

 
What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it?
That he's a freaking idiot and made the worst call in the history of football?
This is correct.
IIRC when Switzer coached the Cowboys, he went for it on 4th and one with Emmitt....didn't make it. Can't remember why, penalty or time out, but the play didn't count. Switzer ran Emmitt into the line again and got stuffed. Cowboys lost (to the Eagles, I think).Also, Dallas had its first ever KO return for a TD in the post season with Parcells vs. Seattle this week. Shouldn't Parcells get the credit for his special teams coaching keeping him in the game as much as the blame for Romo botching the snap?
I don't know why you quoted me when your post has nothing to do with the issue at hand.If you want to argue that Parcells lost the game because he was responsible for Romo botching the snap - well, then by all means do so. I think that's a little ridiculous, but the point of this thread is did Parcells lose the game by calling for a FG.
You agreed with Parcells being called a freaking idiot and making one of the worst calls in football. Per my Switzer example, that's exactly what happened to him after his decsion cost his team the game. Thought it was helping prove your point.
 
What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it?
That he's a freaking idiot and made the worst call in the history of football?
This is correct.
IIRC when Switzer coached the Cowboys, he went for it on 4th and one with Emmitt....didn't make it. Can't remember why, penalty or time out, but the play didn't count. Switzer ran Emmitt into the line again and got stuffed. Cowboys lost (to the Eagles, I think).Also, Dallas had its first ever KO return for a TD in the post season with Parcells vs. Seattle this week. Shouldn't Parcells get the credit for his special teams coaching keeping him in the game as much as the blame for Romo botching the snap?
I don't know why you quoted me when your post has nothing to do with the issue at hand.If you want to argue that Parcells lost the game because he was responsible for Romo botching the snap - well, then by all means do so. I think that's a little ridiculous, but the point of this thread is did Parcells lose the game by calling for a FG.
Well, actually there is NO QUESTION about this--it is historical fact. Parcells, by calling for the field goal, set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game. That is what it is.My point is that even without Romo's botch, it was a gutless call the demonstrated no faith in his team's ability to gain 18 inches.

The larger point here, of course, is that the Cowboys are not a very good football team. Parcells can't trust his team to get a half a yard when they really need it. None of their fans can trust the defense to shut a team down on the last drive of the game to preserve the 2-point victory. And ultimately, their field goal unit cannot pull off makeable game-winning field goals (see also: Washington game) with any regularity.

But I still don't like the call. Gutless. :shrug:

 
What's the worst thing you could say about Parcells if they don't make it?
That he's a freaking idiot and made the worst call in the history of football?
This is correct.
IIRC when Switzer coached the Cowboys, he went for it on 4th and one with Emmitt....didn't make it. Can't remember why, penalty or time out, but the play didn't count. Switzer ran Emmitt into the line again and got stuffed. Cowboys lost (to the Eagles, I think).Also, Dallas had its first ever KO return for a TD in the post season with Parcells vs. Seattle this week. Shouldn't Parcells get the credit for his special teams coaching keeping him in the game as much as the blame for Romo botching the snap?
I don't know why you quoted me when your post has nothing to do with the issue at hand.If you want to argue that Parcells lost the game because he was responsible for Romo botching the snap - well, then by all means do so. I think that's a little ridiculous, but the point of this thread is did Parcells lose the game by calling for a FG.
You agreed with Parcells being called a freaking idiot and making one of the worst calls in football. Per my Switzer example, that's exactly what happened to him after his decsion cost his team the game. Thought it was helping prove your point.
Got it - sorry missed what you were saying.I just really think this is an extremely simple question. If you have a sure thing* to take the leader with less than 2 minutes in a playoff game, you do it. You don't play ASSUMING that Seattle would just drive down the field and score. If you were playing that way, you wouldn't be in that specific decision because Parcells wouldn't have ran the dives on 1st and 2nd down - he'd be gunning for the end zone. They only allowed 21 points - Seattle was playing like crap. I think it's laughable to just assume that you had to score a TD to win the game there.
 
I see 37 people in the SP know the basics of football, and 4 have no idea what they're talking about...or clicked the wrong choice accidentally.
37 = sheep4 = visionariesThere's a reason that not everybody has the gut-checking decision-making chops to be a head coach in the NFL, fella. :excited:
 
Doesn't matter. Make that kick and Seattle slices through the gawd awful pass defense gets another FG shot and wins the game that way. Not getting that first down cost them the game, not the hold.
This guy knows stuff.
That's wrong...History showed us that only 24.7% of the times that a team trailing by less than 3 points with approximately 1:00 left in the game and no timeout comes back to win it...

You can argue that, on average, NFL offenses are worst than the '06 Seahawks... and that NFL defenses are better than the '06 Cowboys... but, they still had stopped them on 9 of the previous 13 drives...

 
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Well, actually there is NO QUESTION about this--it is historical fact. Parcells, by calling for the field goal, set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game. That is what it is.
:excited:
My point is that even without Romo's botch, it was a gutless call the demonstrated no faith in his team's ability to gain 18 inches.
As opposed to doing what you want to do, and gutlessly demonstrating no faith in his defense holding the Seahawks from scoring with 80 seconds left.
The larger point here, of course, is that the Cowboys are not a very good football team. Parcells can't trust his team to get a half a yard when they really need it. None of their fans can trust the defense to shut a team down on the last drive of the game to preserve the 2-point victory. And ultimately, their field goal unit cannot pull off makeable game-winning field goals (see also: Washington game) with any regularity.
What the hell do you mean "the fans can't trust" the defense? You're making no sense. If Parcells kicks the FG, it's because the FANS don't have faith in the defense?Your lack of coherance and understanding of football is astounding.
 
Well, actually there is NO QUESTION about this--it is historical fact. Parcells, by calling for the field goal, set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game. That is what it is.
:loco:
:fishing: You know where Parcels really messed up? He actually had his team fly to Seattle and play the game. By deciding to play the game, he set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game.
 
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Well, actually there is NO QUESTION about this--it is historical fact. Parcells, by calling for the field goal, set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game. That is what it is.
:cry:
My point is that even without Romo's botch, it was a gutless call the demonstrated no faith in his team's ability to gain 18 inches.
As opposed to doing what you want to do, and gutlessly demonstrating no faith in his defense holding the Seahawks from scoring with 80 seconds left.
The larger point here, of course, is that the Cowboys are not a very good football team. Parcells can't trust his team to get a half a yard when they really need it. None of their fans can trust the defense to shut a team down on the last drive of the game to preserve the 2-point victory. And ultimately, their field goal unit cannot pull off makeable game-winning field goals (see also: Washington game) with any regularity.
What the hell do you mean "the fans can't trust" the defense? You're making no sense. If Parcells kicks the FG, it's because the FANS don't have faith in the defense?Your lack of coherance and understanding of football is astounding.
Yeah, because the way you would have called it chief, the Cowboys would have. . . uh, lost. Okay, whatever.Keep playing those averages! :mellow:

 
Yeah, because the way you would have called it chief, the Cowboys would have. . . uh, lost. Okay, whatever.Keep playing those averages! :cry:
So you think you are a better coach than Parcells and his two Lombardi trophies, three SB appearances and resume of taking four franchises to the NFL postseason?What are your credentials?
 
Good gravy......come on dude you can't be serious.He made the right call at that point. Anyone can see that. Cowboy fan alert for the following observationI do find Parcells calpable on a few things:1)An inflexible approach to Defense a-No DL stuntsb-Ware covering down fieldc-Roy Williams...use him properly.2) An inability to develop leaders on this team, because Bill is the "Show".3) Poor scheming Offensivelya) Seattle had 3 corners off the street, how many deep balls were thrown........maybe 1.4) This team has not been ready to play for the last 5 weeks....WHY?Time for a new philosophy. The only way I want to see him back is...if the Master Plan is to hire Cowher or Fisher the following year. Otherwise, let's get the new guy in there, becasue this team is NOT 1 year away.Just my 0.02.
I agree. You take the FG and the win in that situation, that is a no brainer.But, I do think Tuna lost the game, but not because of anything that happened on that last drive. The Cowboys were lucky to have the opportunity to get the win there. How in the world do you not gameplan to throw on the Seahawks?????? I saw several times Glenn running alone on a deep route only for Romo to concentrate on the short stuff underneath or run. Maybe it was all Romo's fault, but they simply didn't go deep at all. Something they did all year long. I get the desire to be a smash mouth team and run the ball, but you have one of the best WR duos in the NFL going against a VERY suspect secondary. I get that you don't want to have Romo turn it over, but in the end Tuna played it too conservative and ended up losing anyway. Tuna played not to lose, he didn't play to win IMO. I also bet he "coached" Romo not to be a hero and remain within himself. Well, that isn't what that kid does. The guy improvises and slings it around, and yes sometimes turns it over. You got to take the good with the bad with him. He isn't going to amount to anything in the NFL if he's just going to be asked to manage games.If N.O. played the Seahawks, Brees would of lit them up. No way Payton asks him to play conservative. As bad as Grossman has been playing, I'd hope the Bears gameplan still includes throwing deep often. Those guys can be had. If that secondary beats you, so be it, you deserve to lose.
 
Well, actually there is NO QUESTION about this--it is historical fact. Parcells, by calling for the field goal, set in motion a chain of events that lost the Cowboys the game. That is what it is.
My friend, drugs are not a good thing. Put the bong down, step back, look up the # for rehab.
37 = sheep4 = visionariesThere's a reason that not everybody has the gut-checking decision-making chops to be a head coach in the NFL, fella.
Or from another point of view, there's a reason not everyone has a 'put a bullet in a gun, spin the revolver and put it to my forehead and pull the trigger to see what happens' mentality.
 
Yeah, because the way you would have called it chief, the Cowboys would have. . . uh, lost. Okay, whatever.Keep playing those averages! :lmao:
So you think you are a better coach than Parcells and his two Lombardi trophies, three SB appearances and resume of taking four franchises to the NFL postseason?What are your credentials?
I suppose he has won about 9 Madden '07 championships but he didn't win a tenth because he went for it on 4th and inches. :unsure:
 
Yeah, because the way you would have called it chief, the Cowboys would have. . . uh, lost. Okay, whatever.Keep playing those averages! :unsure:
So you think you are a better coach than Parcells and his two Lombardi trophies, three SB appearances and resume of taking four franchises to the NFL postseason?What are your credentials?
Just like a 401 k plan, past results aren't indicative of future results.Parcells is a funny guy who had past success. He has done nothing recently to make me believe he is a good coach now. Coaches are getting canned with better 3 year performances than Parcells.
 

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