Parker,Addai or L. Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[Thumper]

I know this topic (or similar topics) have been beat to death around here,but my draft is tomorrow and I am desperate. So please forgive me if I am being redundant.

I have the #4 pick in my draft and simply cannot decide who to choose from (in a td heavy league) of these three.

I project (I have little faith in my numbers) the following.

1/ Joseph Addai (1,410, 450, 10td's) playoff schedule (Jax,Blt,Oak)

2/ Willie Parker (1,375, 250, 13td's) playoff schedule (Cinci,N.E.,Jax)

3/ Larry Johnson (1,375, 375, 14td's) playoff schedule (S.D,Den,Ten)

I am totally confused as to which direction to go.

I just have a gut feeling not to go with LJ this season. He has the toughest schedule and is the only play maker on the team. That being said I project him to have the best numbers of the three.

In what order would you rank these three?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Bristol]

I know this topic (or similar topics) have been beat to death around here,but my draft is tomorrow and I am desperate. So please forgive me if I am being redundant.I have the #4 pick in my draft and simply cannot decide who to choose from (in a td heavy league) of these three.I project (I have little faith in my numbers) the following.1/ Joseph Addai (1,410, 450, 10td's) playoff schedule (Jax,Blt,Oak)2/ Willie Parker (1,375, 250, 13td's) playoff schedule (Cinci,N.E.,Jax)3/ Larry Johnson (1,375, 375, 14td's) playoff schedule (S.D,Den,Ten)I am totally confused as to which direction to go.I just have a gut feeling not to go with LJ this season. He has the toughest schedule and is the only play maker on the team. That being said I project him to have the best numbers of the three.In what order would you rank these three?Thanks in advance.

If you don't take LJ, you are a dope.JohnsonAddaiParker

 

[Thumper]

I know this topic (or similar topics) have been beat to death around here,but my draft is tomorrow and I am desperate. So please forgive me if I am being redundant.I have the #4 pick in my draft and simply cannot decide who to choose from (in a td heavy league) of these three.I project (I have little faith in my numbers) the following.1/ Joseph Addai (1,410, 450, 10td's) playoff schedule (Jax,Blt,Oak)2/ Willie Parker (1,375, 250, 13td's) playoff schedule (Cinci,N.E.,Jax)3/ Larry Johnson (1,375, 375, 14td's) playoff schedule (S.D,Den,Ten)I am totally confused as to which direction to go.I just have a gut feeling not to go with LJ this season. He has the toughest schedule and is the only play maker on the team. That being said I project him to have the best numbers of the three.In what order would you rank these three?Thanks in advance.

If you don't take LJ, you are a dope.JohnsonAddaiParker

Uh, thanks for the help.This dope may or may not take LJ.

 

[top dog]

After the usual - "This belongs in the assistant coaching forum" disclaimer is thrown out there I would break it down like this..

Johnson - proven to be a beast in the past, MONSTER numbers.. Unfortunatly the team has taken a hit this year as far as the offense goes. Will the extended holdout hurt him? Probably not that much. Will the overall condition of the offense hurt his numbers? Probably much more than the holdout.

Addai - Turned it on at the end of last year and put up very good numbers. VERY high-powered offense. Will Manning chucking in those 3 yard TDs hurt him? Maybe. In a PPR league he is much more valuable.

Parker - Put up great numbers last year. Probably won't reproduce the same amount of TDs but the offense is supposed to be a "run first" offense this year.

I think you have to take Johnson based on previous production. If you must pass up on Johnson I would rank the others as such.

Parker over Addai in a non-PPR league.

Addai over Parker in a PPR league.

 

[twwesn]

I have the same situation with a PPR league and would like some responses to this thread as well. People I'm considering are LJ, Addai, Gore, and Alexander. In response to your situation where it's a TD heavy league, I too would have to go with LJ, followed by Alexander IMO. At #4 in my league I doubt LJ will be there but if he is, I'd have a tough time passing on him. If he's not, Addai and Gore are getting the hardest looks. Any other thoughts?

 

[top dog]

I have the same situation with a PPR league and would like some responses to this thread as well. People I'm considering are LJ, Addai, Gore, and Alexander. In response to your situation where it's a TD heavy league, I too would have to go with LJ, followed by Alexander IMO. At #4 in my league I doubt LJ will be there but if he is, I'd have a tough time passing on him. If he's not, Addai and Gore are getting the hardest looks. Any other thoughts?

I think that Alexander is undervalued, but I would not be taking him before Gore or Addai.If it makes you feel better.. The SA owner in our league (regardless of who that is) has won the league 4 out of the last 5 years.

 

[BeachBums]

I have the same feeling about LJ - too many carries and nothing else around him. We'll see if I'm lucky or not, but I got picks 5 and 6 in the two leagues I play in and got Addai in both. Seems to me it comes down to either trusting the 'gut' of every fantasy guru/site there is or trusting your own. It's up to you to decide.

 

[az_prof]

I know this topic (or similar topics) have been beat to death around here,but my draft is tomorrow and I am desperate. So please forgive me if I am being redundant.I have the #4 pick in my draft and simply cannot decide who to choose from (in a td heavy league) of these three.I project (I have little faith in my numbers) the following.1/ Joseph Addai (1,410, 450, 10td's) playoff schedule (Jax,Blt,Oak)2/ Willie Parker (1,375, 250, 13td's) playoff schedule (Cinci,N.E.,Jax)3/ Larry Johnson (1,375, 375, 14td's) playoff schedule (S.D,Den,Ten)I am totally confused as to which direction to go.I just have a gut feeling not to go with LJ this season. He has the toughest schedule and is the only play maker on the team. That being said I project him to have the best numbers of the three.In what order would you rank these three?Thanks in advance.

I am one of those who thinks LJ may decline this year, but even so, you have to pick him at this spot.

 

[top dog]

I have the same feeling about LJ - too many carries and nothing else around him. We'll see if I'm lucky or not, but I got picks 5 and 6 in the two leagues I play in and got Addai in both. Seems to me it comes down to either trusting the 'gut' of every fantasy guru/site there is or trusting your own. It's up to you to decide.

While I have reservations about LJ myself and think his production falls off from last year... This belief has been debunked many times here in the shark pool these last few months...

 

[twwesn]

My gut is telling me Addai, yet everything I read has Gore over him (that's why my brain is getting in the way). I like Indy's schedule more than SF plus Gore's knees and hand are legitimate injury concerns. Addai's only knock is that he's never been a full-time back.

 

[Thumper]

My gut is telling me Addai, yet everything I read has Gore over him (that's why my brain is getting in the way). I like Indy's schedule more than SF plus Gore's knees and hand are legitimate injury concerns. Addai's only knock is that he's never been a full-time back.

My concern about Addai is that he won't score enough.I have noticed Frank Gore dropping quite a bit of late. You could throw him into this debate.

 

[Thumper]

My gut is telling me Addai, yet everything I read has Gore over him (that's why my brain is getting in the way). I like Indy's schedule more than SF plus Gore's knees and hand are legitimate injury concerns. Addai's only knock is that he's never been a full-time back.

My concern about Addai is that he won't score enough.I have noticed Frank Gore dropping quite a bit of late. You could throw him into this debate.

How bad is Gore hurt?

 

[norton17]

No way you don't take Johnson here... none of the other guys are going to end up the #2 or possibly even #1 rb.

 

[Louisville Slugger]

No way you don't take Johnson here... none of the other guys are going to end up the #2 or possibly even #1 rb.

How about Brian Westbrook?

 

[norton17]

No way you don't take Johnson here... none of the other guys are going to end up the #2 or possibly even #1 rb.

How about Brian Westbrook?

Westbrook is going to end up the #2 fantasy RB????Do you follow football?Westbrook is a dynamic player but I seriously doubt he's #2...

 

[The Houston Stallions]

No way you don't take Johnson here... none of the other guys are going to end up the #2 or possibly even #1 rb.

How about Brian Westbrook?

Westbrook is going to end up the #2 fantasy RB????Do you follow football?Westbrook is a dynamic player but I seriously doubt he's #2...

This statement is begging to eat some crow. Westbrook could very easily be the #2 or even #1 RB in fantasy by years end. So could Addai several other players. Sure, they aren't projected to but to but stranger things have happened. Not many had Setven Jackson as the 2nd best RB going into last season.

 

[Pound]

Even fewer had Gore as the 3rd best RB =D I got him in 4.05 last season.

I'd go:

Gore

Addai

LJ

FWP

LJ's holdout isn't an issue.. but his patchwork o-line is. He's lost a some big guys up there plus Tony Richardson over the last couple years.

 

[BigRed]

I know this topic (or similar topics) have been beat to death around here,but my draft is tomorrow and I am desperate. So please forgive me if I am being redundant.I have the #4 pick in my draft and simply cannot decide who to choose from (in a td heavy league) of these three.I project (I have little faith in my numbers) the following.1/ Joseph Addai (1,410, 450, 10td's) playoff schedule (Jax,Blt,Oak)2/ Willie Parker (1,375, 250, 13td's) playoff schedule (Cinci,N.E.,Jax)3/ Larry Johnson (1,375, 375, 14td's) playoff schedule (S.D,Den,Ten)I am totally confused as to which direction to go.I just have a gut feeling not to go with LJ this season. He has the toughest schedule and is the only play maker on the team. That being said I project him to have the best numbers of the three.In what order would you rank these three?Thanks in advance.

FWP and thanks for just coming right out w/an AC question vs doing one of these "here's my AC question but it's really not an AC question" routines.Do you think I should trade Gates and Edwards for Shockey and Roy Wms? TIA

 

[Blackstar]

If you want to risk your season over an Addai man-crush, go-ahead. The stable/sane pick is LJ. Too many people try to be the smartest person in the room by going out on a ledge. They only do so because there is no skin off their back when at the end of the season they look like an idiot. One of the biggest mistakes I see year after year is when people see a player do OK in one year then they project them to be a top 5 player the next.

Probably the most moronic comment out of all the moronic comments I've seen this preseason would be you don't want LJ because he had TOO MANY CARRIES? What kind of #$&%#)(@#* sense does that make?

Unless you're in a Keeper League, Why wouldn't you want your best player to get the most touches?

LJ has some of the freshest legs in the league and when you compare players, smart analysts won't mention LJ and Addai in the same breath.

 

[Kub]

I am sitting with the #3 pick in a 14 team standard scoring(no ppr) league. I have been keeping my options open with what to do and, ultimately, I will end up taking LJ.

Larry Johnson - With all that's been made with how far the Chief offense has lost this offseason, I don't see how it is much more than they lost in Roaf. Trent Green was gone for most of last season, and LJ produced more in the games Huard played anyway. Shields' retirement will hurt, but no more than losing Roaf, who played a more important position. The loss of Richardson could hurt some, but the rest of the offense could have more talent provided Bowe shows more than he has thus far in camp.

Frank Gore - As talented as this guy is, I cannot get out of my mind that he has had reconstructive surgery on both knees and both shoulders. The broken hand, while it shouldn't be a factor, isn't helping alleviate my concerns as to his health.

Willie Parker - FWP has been very good to me, as I landed him with the 1.13 pick last year. That said, last year wasn't all roses for Parker owners. He had 4 games last year where he scored less than 5 points in a game for me. Add his knee tendinitis earlier in camp and that is enough for me to pass on him in favor of LJ.

Joseph Addai - Definitely a talent, but has never been the workhorse back as a pro or in college. While I COULD see him finishing as a top 3 RB, I just as easily could see him faltering under the workload and forcing the Colts using another RB to share the carries.

Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Shaun Alexander - Other than LJ, this is the guy I think has the best chance to return to form and resume being an elite RB. He has proven he can carry the load and he is on a good team. The drawbacks are his age combined with the rumors that the bone in his foot never healed properly.

Those are the guys I have at least debated taking at 1.03. In the end, even factoring in a reduction in LJ's numbers, he is still I the player I feel is the most likely to finish amongst the top 3 RBs.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

 

[Kub]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

PPR?

 

[fatboyj711]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

PPR?

even in PPR, westbrook is not a top 4 pick (i guess a case could be made for #4)

 

[Kub]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

PPR?

even in PPR, westbrook is not a top 4 pick (i guess a case could be made for #4)

I was more or less asking about his analysis for thinking that Westbrook was such a value at #7. I can justify taking Westbrook #7 in a non-ppr league, but I wouldn't be estatic about it.

 

[Blackstar]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

PPR?

even in PPR, westbrook is not a top 4 pick (i guess a case could be made for #4)

Yeah... The leading receiver at running back in a pass-first offense is just terrible to have in a Fantasy Football League.

 

[Bobcat10]

 

[bocksheesh]

The concern with Joseph Addai, simply put, is redzone opportunities.

If you look at what Addai AND Rhodes did last season, it was 13 TDs. Larry Johnson, by comparison, had 19 TDs in a considerably worse offense. Willie Parker had a similar 13 TDs in Pittsburgh though I think that was a little flukey.

If your choice is between Addai and Parker, I think Addai is the choice. I say that b/c with Addai, you kind of know what you're going to get. And that's primarily because the Steelers offense supposedly is changing this year, going to more of a spread-offense. That may be better for Parker, or that may be worse. It's hard to know at this point. The Colts are the Colts. So, with Addai, you can conservatively project his numbers. I'm not sure you can with Parker.

So I go Addai there if the choice is between the two.

Now, if the choice is Addai vs. LJ, the big difference is redzone work. If you're a LJ doubter like I am, you figure his TDs will come down a bit. So figure he gets 15 instead of 19. With Addai, I'm not sure you can count on more than 13 TDs at the high end just given what Rhodes + Addai did last year and how the Colts spread the ball around in the redzone.

So, the basic question is: do you think Addai can safely rack up enough yards to balance out the TD differential between LJ? That would mean he needs to get 180 combined yards more than LJ to roughly equal his production.

I think Addai can do that with all the receiving opportunities he'll have. And then your down to roughly equivalent players. I think there's a greater risk that LJ has a down year than Addai - given the KC OLine depletion, the overall junky offense, and that rough, rough first six weeks of the scheduel.

To me, it's Addai. But I think it will be very close between LJ, Addai, Gore, and Parker.

 

[Nigel]

.Brian Westbrook - Has NEVER played 16 games in a season. Moving along...

Picking at 7, and I hope this is the attitude the people in front of me take.

PPR?

even in PPR, westbrook is not a top 4 pick (i guess a case could be made for #4)

Yeah... The leading receiver at running back in a pass-first offense is just terrible to have in a Fantasy Football League.

I'm in a ppr league. I actually traded out of the 3 spot in the first two rounds into the 7 spot (traded 1.3 and 2.10 for 1.7 and 2.5, then back at 3.3 and so on in the 3 hole for the rest of the draft). I'm targeting Westbrook, then hoping to get a stronger RB2 (Jones-Drew?) than I would have if I stayed put. LJ 3rd in a PPR does not excite me this year.

 

[barista]

I reallly like Westbrook in a PPR this year but not at #4. From a draft standpoint he may (unlikely but you never know) be available in the 2nd round. the others would never. I see Bush going before westie in almost every league that I'm in.

LJ

 

[mon]

You guys don't seem to be considering the stud factor. If you have players similar in projections, always take the biggest stud, i.e. the guy who would do the best if they were all on the same team. So:

1. LJ

2. Parker

3. Addai

 

[tenjack]

Got my draft tonight and I've been debating between Addai, Gore, and LJ for weeks now (I don't believe Parker is a top 4). The #4 pick is not easy this year... Here is my thought process:

LJ = 2006 YPC considerably down from 2005. As a Jets homer, I saw how Herm Edwards basically destroyed Curtis Martin; I see him doing the same thing with Larry Johnson. If he stays healthy all year, gets 350 carries, I can see 1400 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards, and about 14 TDs. The bad part is that the Chiefs schedule is brutal, and IMO, will end up a 6-10 team this year, with very little in the way of offense. Unfortunately, there is very little upside to Larry Johnson.

Gore = The guy is a monster, and the 49ers are on the rise. His 2006 YPC were excellent, and if not for his fumbling problems near the goal line, he would have had about five extra TDs. He's got great hands, and now that the 49ers have a healthy VD and DJax; the offense should explode. Add to the fact that they have a pretty easy schedule. The only thing is... The guy is an injury away from the IR. Boom or bust pick if there was ever such a thing. If healthy, Gore should have 1600 rushing yards, 400 receiving, and 14 TDs.

Addai = The Colts are a bonafide playoff team, and Peyton loves to spread the ball around. Sharing the load, Addai amassed 1000 rushing yeards and a bunch of TDs. In all fairness, you can't merge the stats of Rhodes and Addai to project Addai's 2007 stats; but you can't discount the fact that he wll get around 25 carries a game. I also don't believe you can compare him to Edge, as the team was different when Edge was carrying the load. I love his potential to rush for 1400 yards, 500 receiving, and 12 TDs.

Based on my math, Gore is the better pick than Addai and LJ... But not by much. Your team's worth will be determined by all your subsequent pick.

My opinion is... Pick the guy who's team you like more, and can handle watching... Personally, I'm avoiding all KC games like the plague.

 

[barista]

You guys don't seem to be considering the stud factor. If you have players similar in projections, always take the biggest stud, i.e. the guy who would do the best if they were all on the same team. So:1. LJ2. Parker3. Addai

So it goes.

 

[bocksheesh]

You guys don't seem to be considering the stud factor. If you have players similar in projections, always take the biggest stud, i.e. the guy who would do the best if they were all on the same team. So:1. LJ2. Parker3. Addai

That actually seems like a fairly subjective and therefore useless suggestion. Or at best, circular logic.A stud is defined by the numbers he puts up. We're trying to speculate on who will put up the best numbers. The stud puts up the best numbers. Therefore, take the stud.

 

[mon]

You guys don't seem to be considering the stud factor. If you have players similar in projections, always take the biggest stud, i.e. the guy who would do the best if they were all on the same team. So:1. LJ2. Parker3. Addai

That actually seems like a fairly subjective and therefore useless suggestion. Or at best, circular logic.A stud is defined by the numbers he puts up. We're trying to speculate on who will put up the best numbers. The stud puts up the best numbers. Therefore, take the stud.

No, you're thinking of a fantasy stud. A true stud has an intangible quality that enables him to rise above what others would do in his situation. Think Barry Sanders, who always played for a lackluster team.

 

[Sheriff66]

Addai

Parker

LJ

I just can't get in line with the FBG ranking of LJ this year, I think he falls out of the top 5, his line play HAS to effect his running this year. Defenses are going to make KC throw the ball by giving them 8 man fronts, this team can't just lineup and blow people off the ball like they have in the past.

 

[bocksheesh]

AddaiParkerLJI just can't get in line with the FBG ranking of LJ this year, I think he falls out of the top 5, his line play HAS to effect his running this year. Defenses are going to make KC throw the ball by giving them 8 man fronts, this team can't just lineup and blow people off the ball like they have in the past.

Agree with you. Every year, there is a general conventional wisdom that permeates fantasy football. If you look back on the draft boards at the end of each season, you'd see the same guys ranked high that disappointed.And every year, there is some RB, ranked 7-10, that ascends to the Top 3. This year, it's Stephen Jackson. Next year, it will be someone else.I have the #3 pick. I see all the fantasy expert sites, despite all the concerns with LJ, sticking with him at #3. I'm not buying it.I'm taking either Gore or Addai. Now if I could just figure out which one of them to take ...

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I was happy to get LJ with the 5th pick behind LT, SJax, Gore, and Addai.

At 5, I would say LJ was a steal.