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Past match ups (1 Viewer)

3quinox

Footballguy
For example, jimmy graham is playing the team he lit up two weeks ago. Why do people project he will do good again? I'm new to fantasy football but I'd think past successes by any player against a team would make them focus on that player even more and shut him down?

 
For example, jimmy graham is playing the team he lit up two weeks ago. Why do people project he will do good again? I'm new to fantasy football but I'd think past successes by any player against a team would make them focus on that player even more and shut him down?
You tell me:Graham versus the panthers twice last year:8 rec for 128, then 8 for 97 and 1 tdGraham versus the bucs last year:7 rec for 124, then 6 for 78Graham versus the falcons last year:7 rec for 82 and 1td, then 4 for 42 and 1 tdGraham versus the lions last year (second game was in the playoffs):8 rec for 89, and then 7 for 55 and 1 tdSeems like a decrease in yds, and rec may be in order, but this may be offset by an increase in tds. Small data, I know.
 
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For example, jimmy graham is playing the team he lit up two weeks ago. Why do people project he will do good again? I'm new to fantasy football but I'd think past successes by any player against a team would make them focus on that player even more and shut him down?
You might think that. Then again, it's not like they weren't focusing on Jimmy Graham two weeks ago, and now they're thinking, "Hey, that Graham guy is pretty good, maybe we should try covering him this time around." Past success may simply indicate that he presents a matchup problem for them, a problem which likely hasn't been solved in just the past couple of weeks.
 
As long as the matchups don't change too much then your pretty safe.

Brandon Marshall with a double team on him in week 1 vs week 17 is the same player for the most part. The only issue you need to be aware of is the players on defense and offense around him.

For instance James Jones with Nelson and Jennings out wont repeat if Nelson and Jennings are back. Same with if Calvin Johnson plays the Jets with or without Revis. Revis will cause a big change in what his numbers are because of how Revis can shutdown a WR for most of the game.

The other thing to go back and look at is did 50-75% of the fantasy points come on 1 play?

Shone Greene goes the whole game 25 carries and 40 yards but then hits 1 play for 95 yards and a TD. If they were to play again he is more likely to get 25 carries for 40 yards than he is to get 26 carries for 140+.

It won't ever be exact but think of it as a guide line.

 

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